The record
Every dated hypothesis, with its outcome.
78 hypotheses across 16 analyses: 0 confirmed, 0 invalidated, 2 closed untested, 76 open. Each one names its indicator, its threshold and its date before the data exist; misses stay on this page beside hits.
Closed
| Analysis | Hypothesis | Outcome | Closed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi low water | If the St. Louis gage stays above 5 ft, weekly grain throughput at Locks 27 exceeds 600,000 short tons in at least two weeks between 18 October and 30 November 2026, as harvest volume meets unrestricted drafts. | Closed untested | 2026-11-01 | Closed untested: the condition broke. The USGS gage read 4.68 ft on 27 October and has stayed below 5 ft since 30 October (2.77 ft on 1 November, provisional); the NWS forecast issued on 1 November keeps it below 5 ft to 15 November. The one week on record after 17 October carried 454,300 short tons (week ending 24 October, USDA AgTransport), below 600,000. Replaced by november-low-water-quote-band and rain-returns-december-quote-at-norm. |
| Mississippi low water | If the St. Louis gage stays above 10 ft through November, the St. Louis downbound quote returns below 500% of tariff by 30 November 2026, despite harvest demand for barges. | Closed untested | 2026-11-01 | Closed untested: the condition broke before November began. The USGS gage read 8.75 ft on 18 October, the first day after the series window, and 2.77 ft on 1 November (provisional). The quote was 564% of tariff on 27 October (USDA AgTransport). Replaced by november-low-water-quote-band. |
Closed untested: the condition the hypothesis depended on did not hold, so its claim could not be checked. It counts neither as confirmed nor as invalidated.
Open, by horizon date
Panel: in November 2026 each analysis was read by four separate reviewers (physical limits, who absorbs the shock, the strongest opposite case, human behaviour in its local context). Each gave probabilities, and a fifth reader weighed them by the quality of the evidence behind them. The first figure is the probability, in percent, that the condition of the hypothesis (its "if" clause) holds at its date; where a hypothesis has no "if" clause, it is the probability of the hypothesis itself. The bracket is the range across the four reviewers. "Then" is the probability that the stated outcome follows if the condition holds. "Contested" means the reviewers were more than 30 points apart on one of the two figures. For the Meuse and dyed-diesel analyses the hypotheses were reworded after the panel read them, and several figures were recomputed from the reviewers' numbers by the fifth reader. The figures are published before the data exist; each hypothesis receives its verdict at its date, and no accuracy score is computed yet. A dash means the hypothesis was read as already decided by published data, or the panel's figures do not fit this layout (one figure without a condition, or one per branch).
Meuse, branches "at or above 22": the panel's 17 % was given for any flow-linked stop or reduction at Chooz; the branch now requires a published document that attributes it to the flow, which is narrower. Read 17 % as an upper bound for the branch with a published measure, and 64 % as a lower bound for the branch with none.
| Horizon | Analysis | Hypothesis | Confidence | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-15 | Yokohama typhoon | If September 2026 scales like the eight earlier months of 2026, HS 87 exports cleared at Yokohama customs in September land between 200 and 225 billion yen when the by-customs table is released, around the 208.0 to 221.2 billion implied by the 173.1 billion yen flash value; a value below 200 billion would point to the parts and motorcycle lines, not to the closure, which a monthly value cannot resolve. | MEDIUM | — |
| 2026-11-30 | Hormuz / EU gas | If Hormuz transits stay at or below 10 a day through 30 November 2026, the German day-ahead price averages at least 120 EUR per MWh over November 2026, because gas-marginal hours clear at or above a fuel-and-carbon floor of at least 151 EUR per MWh while TTF stays near its October level. | MEDIUM | 82 % (80–88) then 99 % |
| 2026-11-30 | Hormuz / EU gas | If Hormuz transits stay at or below 10 a day and the JKM premium over TTF stays below 3 USD per MBtu, EU gas in storage is still at or above 710 TWh on 30 November 2026: Europe keeps receiving Atlantic LNG at about the September pace, and the winter risk is price rather than an empty store. | MEDIUM | 20 % (8–70) then 85 % contested |
| 2026-12-01 | Rhine / Swiss fuel | If the federal hydrology institute's central path holds, the Rhine at Kaub reads below 100 cm on 30 November 2026, as both daily minimum and daily mean, so the low-water constraint on Basel-bound tankers is still in force at the start of December. | MEDIUM | 24 % (19–30) |
| 2026-12-02 | Midwest propane / grain drying | If Midwest (PADD 2) propane stocks for the week ending 20 November 2026 are above 16,000 thousand barrels, a draw from 30 October at or below 2024's 1,660 over the same weeks, every weekly Midwest residential propane price surveyed in November 2026 stays between 2.25 and 2.42 USD a gallon, because the drying gallons arrive on the usual delivery cadence and the price follows the national hub, as the two comparable autumns and the CPC outlook of 31 October for a warmer-than-normal November support. | MEDIUM | 75 % (60–88) then 30 % contested |
| 2026-12-02 | Midwest propane / grain drying | If the November 2026 price rise is carried by the national hub rather than by Iowa drying, then in every weekly survey of November 2026 the Midwest residential propane price's change from a year earlier exceeds the US average's by less than 0.10 USD a gallon, and the Iowa price stays below the Midwest average; on 2 November the Midwest was up 0.358 against 0.375 for the US, and Iowa was 0.44 below the Midwest. | MEDIUM | — |
| 2026-12-02 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | The lowest value of road diesel minus residential heating oil over the EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026 is at or below minus 0.05 USD per gallon in any one week. The branch is defined by the gap alone. Read beside it, not defining the branch: on the survey of that low, residential heating oil against 6.138 and wholesale heating oil against 5.100 USD per gallon, their values of 2 November. With both at or above, the low is read as heating oil gaining at retail. With the low at or below minus 0.05 and either price under its value, the branch still holds and the low is read as taxed diesel falling faster than a lagging residential price: a pass-through reading with no information on the order. Reading rule: the values as they stand in the two EIA workbooks on Wednesday 2 December 2026; if one of the four prints is absent on 4 December the reading is made on three and says so, with fewer than three it is void; a later revision is recorded beside the reading and does not change it. On the same weeks of 2012 to 2025, with no relief in force, the low was at or below minus 0.05 in 1 year of 14 (2022), between minus 0.05 and 0.10 in 10, and at or above 0.10 in 3 (2014, 2020, 2021). The reading does not attribute its result to the order: weather, retail pass-through, state tax suspensions and supply into the Northeast move the same gap, and dyed and clear diesel leave the same terminal tank. | LOW | 4 % (3–4) |
| 2026-12-02 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | The lowest value of road diesel minus residential heating oil over the EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026 is above minus 0.05 and below 0.10 USD per gallon, the band that contains the lows of 2024 and 2025 (0.018) and any crossing of zero of ordinary size. Reading rule: the values as they stand in the two EIA workbooks on Wednesday 2 December 2026; if one of the four prints is absent on 4 December the reading is made on three and says so, with fewer than three it is void; a later revision is recorded beside the reading and does not change it. On the same weeks of 2012 to 2025, with no relief in force, the low was at or below minus 0.05 in 1 year of 14 (2022), between minus 0.05 and 0.10 in 10, and at or above 0.10 in 3 (2014, 2020, 2021). A reading in this band carries no information on the order in either direction. | HIGH | 77 % (74–82) |
| 2026-12-02 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | Road diesel minus residential heating oil is at or above 0.10 USD per gallon on all four EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026: heating oil loses ground on road diesel while the relief is in force, the direction of the EIA outlook of 10 November 2026. Reading rule: the values as they stand in the two EIA workbooks on Wednesday 2 December 2026; if one of the four prints is absent on 4 December the reading is made on three and says so, with fewer than three it is void; a later revision is recorded beside the reading and does not change it. On the same weeks of 2012 to 2025, with no relief in force, the low was at or below minus 0.05 in 1 year of 14 (2022), between minus 0.05 and 0.10 in 10, and at or above 0.10 in 3 (2014, 2020, 2021). The reading does not attribute its result to the order: weather, retail pass-through, state tax suspensions and supply into the Northeast move the same gap, and dyed and clear diesel leave the same terminal tank. | LOW | 19 % (15–22) |
| 2026-12-08 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | The lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz between 12 November and 7 December 2026 is below 20 m3/s. The safety authority's rule then sets the evaporated flow at nil on the thirteenth day, both units stopped in the operator's wording. Pace required, recomputed from the daily flows to 11 November: a first reading under 20 needs the days from 12 November to average under 18.26 m3/s by 21 November, under 19.22 by 22 November, or under 20 over the twelve days to 23 November; earlier dates need lower flows still (under 16.90 by 20 November). All are below the mean flow of 2 to 7 November (20.55; lowest day 19.475 on 7 November). No precedent on these dates in 2015 to 2025. Reading rule for the flow: Hub'Eau, lowest value of the 12-day mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) on any day from 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026 with the values as then published (raw or pre-validated). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the reading is made on the values published and is void if no 12-day mean of the window can be formed. The DREAL gauge B720000001 decides the branch; the operator's gauge B720000004 is read beside it and a difference of branch between the two is reported as such. Neither gauge subtracts the evaporated flow: the downstream value of the rule is lower by up to 2.1 m3/s with two units running, so a reading from 22 to 24.1 leaves it undetermined. The four branches of this reading are read in the order written (lowest mean under 20; from 20 to under 22; at or above 22 with a published flow-linked measure; at or above 22 with none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. A 12-day mean under 22 m3/s or a measure dated 8 to 31 December 2026 belongs to no branch: those days are read in a follow-up, and the branch read on 8 December stands. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means over the 12 days after the first reading under 20, read on 24 December 2026, against 1,098.8 to 4,998.8 MW. | LOW | 3 % (2–7) |
| 2026-12-08 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | The lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz between 12 November and 7 December 2026 is below 22 m3/s and at or above 20 m3/s. The safety authority's rule then limits the evaporated flow to 5 percent of the river flow, about one unit's worth: one unit stopped in the operator's wording, or power reductions that may bear on both units. Pace required, recomputed from the daily flows to 11 November: a first reading under 22 needs the days from 12 November to average under 19.56 m3/s by 20 November or under 20.66 by 21 November; earlier dates need lower flows still (under 19.05 by 19 November). The second figure is the level of 2 to 7 November (mean 20.55); the first lies below it (one day since 31 October, 19.475 on 7 November). Local precedent for a stay between the two figures: 14 July to 5 August 2026 and the 2019 episode. Reading rule for the flow: Hub'Eau, lowest value of the 12-day mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) on any day from 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026 with the values as then published (raw or pre-validated). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the reading is made on the values published and is void if no 12-day mean of the window can be formed. The DREAL gauge B720000001 decides the branch; the operator's gauge B720000004 is read beside it and a difference of branch between the two is reported as such. Neither gauge subtracts the evaporated flow: the downstream value of the rule is lower by up to 2.1 m3/s with two units running, so a reading from 22 to 24.1 leaves it undetermined. The four branches of this reading are read in the order written (lowest mean under 20; from 20 to under 22; at or above 22 with a published flow-linked measure; at or above 22 with none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. A 12-day mean under 22 m3/s or a measure dated 8 to 31 December 2026 belongs to no branch: those days are read in a follow-up, and the branch read on 8 December stands. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means over the 12 days after the first reading under 22, read on 24 December 2026, against 2,548.8 to 6,448.8 MW. | LOW | 16 % (10–28) |
| 2026-12-08 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | The lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz between 12 November and 7 December 2026 is at or above 22 m3/s, and at least one published document attributes a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit between the same dates to the Meuse flow. The published document, not the flow series, separates this branch from the next. Precedents: 11 July 2026 (22.995 on the DREAL gauge, 22.923 on the operator's) and autumn 2018 (22.161); counter-case: 10 November 2026 (22.898 on the operator's gauge, no stop reported). Reading rule for the flow: Hub'Eau, lowest value of the 12-day mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) on any day from 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026 with the values as then published (raw or pre-validated). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the reading is made on the values published and is void if no 12-day mean of the window can be formed. The DREAL gauge B720000001 decides the branch; the operator's gauge B720000004 is read beside it and a difference of branch between the two is reported as such. Neither gauge subtracts the evaporated flow: the downstream value of the rule is lower by up to 2.1 m3/s with two units running, so a reading from 22 to 24.1 leaves it undetermined. The four branches of this reading are read in the order written (lowest mean under 20; from 20 to under 22; at or above 22 with a published flow-linked measure; at or above 22 with none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. A 12-day mean under 22 m3/s or a measure dated 8 to 31 December 2026 belongs to no branch: those days are read in a follow-up, and the branch read on 8 December stands. Reading rule for the measure, as it stands on 8 December 2026: at least one published document dated 12 November to 7 December 2026 that reports a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit, whatever its size or duration, and names the Meuse flow, the 1998 agreement or the limit on evaporated water as its reason. One document at any of three kinds of source counts: a notice on the operator's Chooz news page (https://www.edf.fr/la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz/les-actualites-de-la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz), opened in an ordinary browser (the page refuses automated readers), its title, date and sentence copied into the reading; a news-agency dispatch as republished by the regional and national press (no single public feed: the reading names the titles searched); or a generation unavailability message for Chooz 1 or Chooz 2 that states the cause, on the grid operator's public page of unavailability messages (https://iip.cloud-rte-france.com/production-unavailability; opened once on 12 November 2026: it answers an automated reader, but its messages load by script and are read in a browser). A trade-press article alone does not count and is reported beside the reading. A fall of output with no published reason is reported as unattributed and does not change the branch. A document published after 8 December about days of the window is reported on 24 December as a late correction. The reading names, for each source, who opened it (a person in a browser, or an agent) and on which date. If the operator's page was not opened, the fourth branch is recorded as 'no document found in dispatches and unavailability messages; operator's page not opened' and stays provisional until a person opens it. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means of 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026, against 2,548.8 to 8,574.9 MW; the regional series cannot separate this branch from the next. | LOW | 17 % (6–20) |
| 2026-12-08 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | The lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz between 12 November and 7 December 2026 is at or above 22 m3/s, and no published document attributes a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit between the same dates to the Meuse flow. The branch states that nothing was published, not that nothing happened. Seasonal precedent: every year from 2015 to 2025, lowest value of these dates 28.8 m3/s, none of them starting from a base flow near 20 m3/s. Reading rule for the flow: Hub'Eau, lowest value of the 12-day mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) on any day from 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026 with the values as then published (raw or pre-validated). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the reading is made on the values published and is void if no 12-day mean of the window can be formed. The DREAL gauge B720000001 decides the branch; the operator's gauge B720000004 is read beside it and a difference of branch between the two is reported as such. Neither gauge subtracts the evaporated flow: the downstream value of the rule is lower by up to 2.1 m3/s with two units running, so a reading from 22 to 24.1 leaves it undetermined. The four branches of this reading are read in the order written (lowest mean under 20; from 20 to under 22; at or above 22 with a published flow-linked measure; at or above 22 with none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. A 12-day mean under 22 m3/s or a measure dated 8 to 31 December 2026 belongs to no branch: those days are read in a follow-up, and the branch read on 8 December stands. Reading rule for the measure, as it stands on 8 December 2026: at least one published document dated 12 November to 7 December 2026 that reports a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit, whatever its size or duration, and names the Meuse flow, the 1998 agreement or the limit on evaporated water as its reason. One document at any of three kinds of source counts: a notice on the operator's Chooz news page (https://www.edf.fr/la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz/les-actualites-de-la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz), opened in an ordinary browser (the page refuses automated readers), its title, date and sentence copied into the reading; a news-agency dispatch as republished by the regional and national press (no single public feed: the reading names the titles searched); or a generation unavailability message for Chooz 1 or Chooz 2 that states the cause, on the grid operator's public page of unavailability messages (https://iip.cloud-rte-france.com/production-unavailability; opened once on 12 November 2026: it answers an automated reader, but its messages load by script and are read in a browser). A trade-press article alone does not count and is reported beside the reading. A fall of output with no published reason is reported as unattributed and does not change the branch. A document published after 8 December about days of the window is reported on 24 December as a late correction. The reading names, for each source, who opened it (a person in a browser, or an agent) and on which date. If the operator's page was not opened, the fourth branch is recorded as 'no document found in dispatches and unavailability messages; operator's page not opened' and stays provisional until a person opens it. If no such document exists on 8 December, this branch holds. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means of 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026, against 3,998.8 to 8,574.9 MW; that band tests the six other units of the region, not the river. | HIGH | 64 % (55–79) |
| 2026-12-10 | Mississippi low water | If the St. Louis gage falls below the NWS impact level of 1.0 ft by 20 November 2026 without five consecutive days below 0 ft, every weekly St. Louis downbound quote dated in November 2026 stays between 380% and 620% of tariff: low water after the harvest peak holds the quote near its November norm (454%) rather than lifting it back above 700%. | MEDIUM | 1 % (1–2) then 87 % |
| 2026-12-10 | Yokohama typhoon | If no typhoon reaches Tokyo Bay between 1 and 30 November 2026, no UTC day at Yokohama other than the holidays of 3 and 23 November prints fewer than 15 port calls, and the two holidays, tested apart, also stay at or above 15; a day below 15 without a storm would mean low days of September's size need no closure to occur. | MEDIUM | 96 % (92–98) then 93 % |
| 2026-12-11 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | Conjecture, not shown by a series: domestic buyers stepped back first (fall 2025; cutbacks planned for fall 2026 as reported in the press in July), tonnes were placed abroad from January 2026 and to India from May, and production was curtailed in May and July; if domestic buyers return for fall 2026 and spring 2027, as the seller states on 3 November 2026, the tonnes the curtailment removes are missing from the domestic market. The rival reading is that they do not return in full and nothing is missing (demand first). Discriminating sign, weaker because it rests on one earlier point: the Illinois distributor ask for DAP in the USDA report nearest 11 December 2026 is above 932.14 USD per short ton, its value in the report of 30 October 2026, while the World Bank November average of DAP, published in the first days of December, stays under 827 USD per tonne (3 percent above October). An inland price that rises alone points to tonnes missing at home; a Gulf price that rises with it does not separate the two readings; an inland ask at or under 932.14 is the demand-first reading. No history of the Illinois ask was collected, so the usual size of its difference with the Gulf price is not known. | LOW | 26 % then 35 % |
| 2026-12-15 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are at or above 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: the export level of the third quarter continues, at a level no October of 2022 to 2025 reached and ten of the twelve Octobers of 2010 to 2021 did. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. | MEDIUM | 36 % (33–42) |
| 2026-12-15 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are above 105,000 and below 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: above the October record of 2022 to 2025 and under the level of the third quarter, neither continued nor reversed. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. | LOW | 27 % (22–30) |
| 2026-12-15 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are at or below 105,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: inside the October record of 2022 to 2025; the third-quarter level does not continue. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. | MEDIUM | 37 % (34–45) |
| 2026-12-15 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | Conjecture, not shown by a series: domestic buyers stepped back first (fall 2025; cutbacks planned for fall 2026 as reported in the press in July), tonnes were placed abroad from January 2026 and to India from May, and production was curtailed in May and July; if domestic buyers return for fall 2026 and spring 2027, as the seller states on 3 November 2026, the tonnes the curtailment removes are missing from the domestic market. The rival reading is that they do not return in full and nothing is missing (demand first). Necessary sign, stated so that it can fail: US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026, read in the USDA AgTransport trade file on 15 December 2026 (on 31 December if October is absent; absent then, void), are at or above 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient, a level no October of 2022 to 2025 reached and that ten of the twelve Octobers of 2010 to 2021 reached. The sign is necessary and does not discriminate: exports can stay high with a domestic market that is short of nothing. Falsifiers: October exports at or below 105,000; the Illinois ask at or under 932.14 in the reports of 27 November and 11 December 2026 with October exports at or above 125,000, which is the demand-first reading; the company reporting fourth-quarter phosphate sales at or above 1.5 million tonnes with North American demand named as the destination; the second US producer reporting fourth-quarter phosphate sales under its lowered guidance and repeating that customers defer. | LOW | 36 % (33–42) then 30 % |
| 2026-12-15 | Yokohama typhoon | Yokohama's November 2026 container export tonnage reaches at least 90 percent of October 2026's, even if November has a UTC day below 15 port calls: a closure of two days shifts tonnage within the month, as September's 1,127,052 t against August's 1,122,720 t showed. A lower ratio after such a day would mean a closure loses cargo rather than delaying it. | MEDIUM | — |
| 2026-12-21 | Midwest harvest diesel | If Brent stays above 115 USD per barrel through November 2026, the Midwest retail diesel price reads 6.00 USD per gallon or more in the EIA survey of 21 December 2026, whether or not Russia ships its planned November volumes and the US waiver's tranches sail. | MEDIUM | — |
| 2026-12-31 | Hormuz / EU gas | If Hormuz transits reach 30 or more a day for seven consecutive days by 30 November 2026, the German day-ahead price averages at most 160 EUR per MWh over December 2026 and EU gas in storage is at or above 560 TWh on 31 December 2026, as Qatari cargoes return within three to six weeks. | LOW | 3 % (2–3) then 38 % |
| 2026-12-31 | Midwest propane / grain drying | If Midwest (PADD 2) propane stocks for the week ending 20 November 2026 are at or below 16,000 thousand barrels, a draw from 30 October larger than 2024's 1,660 that needs weekly draws above any November week in the series, every weekly Midwest residential propane price surveyed in December 2026 is between 2.35 and 2.62 USD a gallon, the window's high of March 2022, because drying and heating fills then draw on Gulf barrels bought at hub parity plus freight while exports hold their contracted pace. | LOW | 25 % (12–40) then 55 % |
| 2026-12-31 | Mississippi low water | If the St. Louis gage height falls below 0 ft for five consecutive days again before 15 December 2026, the St. Louis downbound barge quote exceeds 700% of tariff within the following three weeks. | MEDIUM | 20 % (4–30) then 7 % |
| 2027-01-04 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | At least one text at any of the three addresses (IRS, Federal Register, White House presidential actions) moves the end of the federal penalty relief on highway use of dyed diesel (or of the non-enforcement) beyond 31 December 2026, whatever the price. Reading rule: texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026, read on 31 December 2026 and again on 4 January 2027 at three addresses, the IRS newsroom (news releases of the month and the dyed diesel FAQ), the Federal Register (search 'dyed diesel') and the White House presidential-actions page; a text signed by 31 December and carried by that page alone on 4 January 2027 counts. An early end or a narrowing of the relief by a Treasury text or a court is outside the three branches. Read beside the decision and not defining it: the EIA on-highway price of Monday 21 December 2026 against 6.199 and against the EIA outlook mean for December, 5.792; and any text under section 7508A, which settles the tax of the period and not the penalty. | LOW | 29 % (26–40) |
| 2027-01-04 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | At least one text at any of the three addresses (IRS, Federal Register, White House presidential actions) grants a grace period, a run-off of stored fuel or another measure on residual dye, while the end of the federal penalty relief stays at 31 December 2026 (no text moves it). Reading rule: texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026, read on 31 December 2026 and again on 4 January 2027 at three addresses, the IRS newsroom (news releases of the month and the dyed diesel FAQ), the Federal Register (search 'dyed diesel') and the White House presidential-actions page; a text signed by 31 December and carried by that page alone on 4 January 2027 counts. An early end or a narrowing of the relief by a Treasury text or a court is outside the three branches. Read beside the decision and not defining it: the EIA on-highway price of Monday 21 December 2026 against 6.199 and against the EIA outlook mean for December, 5.792; and any text under section 7508A, which settles the tax of the period and not the penalty. | MEDIUM | 50 % (39–57) |
| 2027-01-04 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | No IRS or Federal Register text, and no presidential action, either moves the end of the federal penalty relief beyond 31 December 2026 or grants a grace period, a run-off of stored fuel or another measure on residual dye: the relief ends on 31 December 2026 as written, and the penalty of 26 U.S.C. 6715 applies again on 1 January 2027. Reading rule: texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026, read on 31 December 2026 and again on 4 January 2027 at three addresses, the IRS newsroom (news releases of the month and the dyed diesel FAQ), the Federal Register (search 'dyed diesel') and the White House presidential-actions page; a text signed by 31 December and carried by that page alone on 4 January 2027 counts. An early end or a narrowing of the relief by a Treasury text or a court is outside the three branches. Read beside the decision and not defining it: the EIA on-highway price of Monday 21 December 2026 against 6.199 and against the EIA outlook mean for December, 5.792; and any text under section 7508A, which settles the tax of the period and not the penalty. | LOW | 21 % (6–30) |
| 2027-01-10 | Mississippi low water | If the St. Louis gage is back at or above 5 ft on any day by 30 November 2026, against the NWS forecast of 1 November, every weekly St. Louis downbound quote dated in December 2026 is at or below 505% of tariff, the top of the December weeks of 2023 to 2025. | MEDIUM | 99 % (99–99) then 25 % |
| 2027-01-15 | Danube low water / maize | If the Danube at Ruse reads at or above −60 cm on 30 November 2026, the weekly gap between Constanța FOB feed maize and the Muntenia departure-from-silo price (DG AGRI) falls to 35 EUR/t or less in at least one week of December 2026, from 40.84 in week 43, as barges return to the reach above Cernavodă. | MEDIUM | 60 % (45–70) then 65 % |
| 2027-01-15 | Danube low water / maize | If the Danube at Ruse is still below −60 cm on 30 November 2026, every weekly gap between Constanța FOB feed maize and the Muntenia departure-from-silo price notified in December 2026 stays at or above 35 EUR/t; a print under 25 EUR/t while Ruse is below −100 cm breaks the river reading. | MEDIUM | 40 % (30–55) then 30 % |
| 2027-01-15 | Rhine / Swiss fuel | If the Kaub daily mean stays below 100 cm through November, every weekly Germany-minus-Belgium heating-oil spread in the EC Weekly Oil Bulletin from 26 October to 28 December 2026 stays between −82.0 and 171.4 EUR per 1000 L, the range observed from July to October, because the river premium is regional and averages out of the national price. A reading above 250 EUR per 1000 L while Kaub is below 40 cm would show a national premium after all. | LOW | — |
| 2027-01-31 | Mississippi low water | If the St. Louis gage runs below 0 ft for five consecutive days starting between 16 and 31 December 2026, the three weekly St. Louis downbound quotes that follow stay at or below 545% of tariff, as in the sub-zero Decembers of 2023 to 2025 and as the forward January quote of 27 October (542%) prices it; a quote above 700% would mean that low water lifts the quote even after the harvest has moved. | LOW | 18 % (12–25) then 42 % |
| 2027-01-31 | Rhine / Swiss fuel | If the Kaub daily mean on 30 November 2026 is below 100 cm, inbound mineral oil at the Swiss Rhine ports stays between 30,000 and 100,000 t in November and between 30,000 and 130,000 t in December 2026; if it is at or above 100 cm, December intake reaches at least 90,000 t. Intake outside the band of the branch that occurs refutes the river reading of Basel supply. | MEDIUM | — |
| 2027-01-31 | Midwest harvest diesel | If Brent falls back to the EIA's fourth-quarter assumption of 105 USD per barrel or lower, the Midwest retail diesel price prints below 5.50 USD per gallon in at least one Monday survey before 31 January 2027, while Russia's producer export ban is still in force. | LOW | 98 % (97–98) then 38 % contested |
| 2027-01-31 | Midwest harvest diesel | If Russian diesel exports recover toward the November plan of 2.15 million tonnes under the quota, the exemptions and the US waiver, Brazil still takes more diesel from the United States than from Russia in every month from October to December 2026, and EIA distillate exports to Brazil stay at or above 100 thousand barrels a day in each of those months. | LOW | 25 % (20–35) then 40 % |
| 2027-01-31 | BNSF shuttle trains 2027 | If the BNSF secondary bid for January 2027 delivery reaches 1,000 dollars per car or more by 31 December 2026, as the January 2026 train did in December 2025, the BNSF next-month bid stays at or above 700 dollars per car in the weeks of January 2027, so 2027 trains resell their first-quarter placements above their 428 dollars per car-trip cost. | LOW | 13 % (12–25) then 37 % |
| 2027-02-10 | India monsoon / rice | If India keeps non-basmati rice open, the World Bank Thai 5% monthly quote stays between 418.5 and 586.3 dollars a tonne in November 2026 and below 553.28 in December 2026 and January 2027; a December or January quote at or above 553.28, 12% over the 21 October weekly quote of 494, would match the band of an Indian restriction (553.28 to 612.56). | LOW | 65 % (50–75) then 78 % |
| 2027-02-28 | Cocoa, Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana | If the farmgate wedge of about 1.53 USD/kg moves Ivorian beans east during the main crop, EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Ghana in December 2026 reach at least 20,000 t, the top of what Ghana's own 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast crop supports (16,142 t in December 2025), with COCOBOD's graded-and-sealed purchases running ahead of that forecast; the December figure is due in the Comext release of late February 2027. | LOW | 25 % (20–85) then 40 % contested |
| 2027-02-28 | Cocoa, Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana | If the Ivorian main crop runs eight to ten weeks late, as the Conseil du Café-Cacao expects, EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire in December 2026 fall between 20,000 and 40,000 t, below the 51,228 t monthly mean since January 2025, whatever happens at the border; a December figure above 40,000 t would mean the crop was not late enough to move Ghana's share on its own. | MEDIUM | 45 % (35–75) then 62 % contested |
| 2027-02-28 | Danube low water / maize | While Government Decree 91/2026 keeps Ukrainian maize out of the Hungarian market, Hungary's maize imports from all partners (Eurostat Comext) reach at least 60,000 tonnes in each of November and December 2026, whatever the Danube level, because the crop shortfall sets the volume and the river only the route. | MEDIUM | 88 % (85–90) then 52 % |
| 2027-02-28 | India monsoon / rice | If no DGFT measure on non-basmati rice is notified before 31 December 2026, India's HS 1006 exports for December 2026, released by DGCI&S around late February 2027, are at or above 1,202,588 tonnes, the monthly flow a stop on non-basmati white rice would leave on the July 2026 level. | MEDIUM | 72 % (58–82) then 96 % |
| 2027-02-28 | India monsoon / rice | If India's total rice exports stay at or above 1,202,588 tonnes a month, its shipments to Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, Togo, Ghana and Nigeria stay at or above 271,944 tonnes, the July 2026 low, in each of October, November and December 2026, because Indian broken and parboiled are the grades that land under Dakar's importer ceiling; a month below that floor with Indian totals above the line would point to importer-side rules rather than Indian supply. | LOW | 89 % (84–92) then 48 % |
| 2027-03-01 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | At least one text permits duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco for three months or more beyond 28 February 2027, by prolonging Proclamation 11038 or by a new declaration, or extends it to other origins under the order on Russia. A text permits arrivals and does not compel them: a May-to-September sum under 33,000 with this branch true is the case 'window open, origin absent' and is recorded as such. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. | MEDIUM | 39 % (36–45) |
| 2027-03-01 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | At least one text keeps a relief narrower than Proclamation 11038 beyond 28 February 2027 (duty-free importation permitted for less than three months, a quantity limit, or named shipments only), and no text permits entry for three months or more. No precedent of this kind was read for this order; the branch is kept because the Commerce notice of 8 July 2026 already works shipment by shipment. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. | LOW | 10 % (8–12) |
| 2027-03-01 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | No text permits duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco beyond 28 February 2027, in full or in a narrower form: the window ends on that date as written, or earlier if a text terminates the emergency, and the cash deposit applies again to shipments not approved before the end. The record under the order does not say which level of arrivals returns after a lapse: about 1,000 short tons over May to September 2025, the one year on file under the present deposit, and 25,000 to 31,000 in 2022 to 2024 under deposits of 19.97 then 2.12 percent. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. | MEDIUM | 51 % (45–52) |
| 2027-03-05 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | At least one text of The Mosaic Company states the restart of the idled Louisiana plant, a higher operating rate at a named curtailed US phosphate plant, or the end of the sulfur-related curtailments at the plants, and no text states a reduction. Production band read beside it: 1,345 to 1,504; a figure in the middle band with this branch true is recorded as a timing effect, a text dated late in the window raising only the last weeks of the quarter. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). | LOW | 17 % (12–20) |
| 2027-03-05 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | No text of The Mosaic Company states a raise or a reduction of the operating rate of a US phosphate plant: the plants stay as described through 13 November 2026, whatever is restated about the mines. Production band read beside it: 1,206 to 1,344. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). | HIGH | 68 % (63–74) |
| 2027-03-05 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | At least one text of The Mosaic Company states a lower operating rate, the idling or the closure of a US phosphate plant that was in operation on 13 November 2026; this branch takes precedence if texts of both kinds exist. Production band read beside it: 901 to 1,205; a figure in the middle band with this branch true is recorded as a timing effect, a reduction announced late in the window removing few tonnes in the quarter. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). | LOW | 15 % (11–17) |
| 2027-03-31 | Cocoa, Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana | If the World Bank cocoa price stays at or above 5.5 USD/kg through December 2026, the EU import unit value of Ivorian beans still falls below 4,000 EUR/t in at least one month from November 2026 to January 2027, because those beans were sold forward near a reference of about 3.48 USD/kg; unit values at or above 4,800 EUR/t in each of the three months would contradict it. January 2027 is due in the Comext release of mid-March 2027. | MEDIUM | 11 % (10–22) then 55 % |
| 2027-03-31 | BNSF shuttle trains 2027 | If the BNSF secondary bid for January 2027 delivery is at or below 600 dollars per car in the last week of December 2026, as the January 2025 train traded in December 2024, the BNSF next-month bid stays below 428 dollars per car, the premium per car-trip of the 2027 trains, in most weeks of January to March 2027. | MEDIUM | 72 % (55–78) then 47 % |
| 2027-03-31 | BNSF shuttle trains 2027 | If BNSF offers no more than 140 shuttle trains for 2027/28, its February to March 2027 yearlong auctions for August to October 2027 starts average at least 1 million dollars per train, whatever the winter secondary bids do; an average below 1 million would mean the railroad, not the holders, absorbs the revision. | MEDIUM | 84 % (80–85) then 42 % |
| 2027-04-15 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | Conjecture on India: the purchases that pulled US DAP from May 2026 are seasonal blocks by a state buyer; they stop when the rabi stock is covered and do not depend on the US producer's situation. The mechanism rests on press: the letters of intent of May 2026 and the compensation of importers are reported by a trade publication relaying a price reporter, and no Indian government text was found. Necessary sign: the USDA AgTransport trade file shows no US-origin DAP or MAP to India in each of December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027. Record: since 2022 the sign held in two winters of four and failed in two, each time on December; on the sixteen winters of the file from December 2010 it held in five and failed in eleven. It tests the company's sentence of 3 November 2026 that the rabi tonnes are 'expected to be depleted by year-end'. Reading rule: read on 15 April 2027; if February 2027 is absent, on 30 April 2027; absent then, void. Falsifiers: a US-origin row of DAP or MAP to India in any of the three months; a new block purchase by the Indian state buyer announced before 31 January 2027 with United States among the origins, reported with its text. India took 42 percent of the January to September 2026 rise in US exports; the other 58 percent does not depend on it. Not tested: whether purchases resume in the next season, May to September 2027. | LOW | 40 % (28–45) then 66 % |
| 2027-04-15 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | Conjecture on the import side: the duty-free window is the instrument the government chose on the ground it states, that US production 'is insufficient to support domestic agricultural food production after accounting for exports' (Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026). Necessary sign, on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (DAP; MAP and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), Moroccan origin, phosphorus nutrient short tons, read at the source: at least two of the five months from October 2026 to February 2027 are above 10,000, a cargo-sized month. Record: eleven such months under the order of 7 April 2021 before the window, and none of the five October-to-February periods under the order has two. Reading rule: 15 April 2027; if February 2027 is absent, 30 April 2027; absent then, void. If the sign fails, the window was open and the origin did not come in those months: the binding constraint is then elsewhere than the duty (price asked, freight, the origin's own commitments, or the season). If it holds, it shows use of the window, not its cause: arrivals of this size also occurred under the order in 2022 to 2024 with a deposit collected. Falsifiers: fewer than two such months; a text terminating the emergency before 28 February 2027. | LOW | 66 % (55–72) then 37 % |
| 2027-04-30 | El Niño / Panama Canal | If Gatun Lake reads below 84 ft on any day on or before 28 February 2027 on the ACP water page, as the 2023 drawdown rate from the projected 86.3 ft implies around 25 February, the ACP sets daily booking slots at 32 or fewer before 31 March 2027, and the Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan is at or above 36 USD/t in March 2027. | MEDIUM | 15 % (12–22) then 33 % |
| 2027-04-30 | El Niño / Panama Canal | If Gatun Lake stays at or above 84 ft on every day from 1 January to 31 March 2027, which takes a dry season wetter than 2025's, the ACP keeps 33 or more daily slots through March 2027, oceangoing transits are at or above 950 in February 2027, and the Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan is at or below 39 USD/t in March 2027. | LOW | 30 % (20–45) then 45 % |
| 2027-04-30 | El Niño / Panama Canal | If the Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan is at or above 40 USD/t in any month from January to March 2027, the Pacific Northwest share of Gulf-plus-PNW grain export inspections over January to March 2027 stays at or below 45 percent, near the 39.9 percent of the fourth quarter of 2023, because elevator and rail capacity in the Northwest, not the ocean rate, caps the switch. | LOW | 9 % (7–12) then 92 % |
| 2027-04-30 | Peru anchovy / fishmeal | If the weekly Niño 1+2 anomaly in the week containing 24 February 2027 is still at or above +2.0 °C, the World Bank fish meal price for March 2027 is at or above 2,916 USD/t, its September 2026 level, because the summer survey and the end-of-March decision fall inside the warm period and no north-centre fish reaches the market before April; the dossier sets no ceiling on the upper end. | MEDIUM | 57 % (50–80) then 45 % |
| 2027-04-30 | Peru anchovy / fishmeal | If the weekly Niño 1+2 anomaly in the week containing 24 February 2027 is below +1.0 °C, the World Bank fish meal price for March 2027 eases but stays between 2,605 and 2,916 USD/t, its August and September 2026 levels, because a cooling sea brings forward the prospect of a season, not the fish: no north-centre catch reaches the market before a resolution at the end of March or in April, and in 2023-24 the price gave back under 10 percent before new supply. A reading between +1.0 and +2.0 °C leaves both this and the warm hypothesis unresolved. | LOW | 5 % (4–8) then 52 % |
| 2027-05-05 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | The mean daily flow of the Meuse at Chooz in April 2027 is below 90 m3/s. Years on file under 90: 2017 (no day of the 12-day mean under 22 that summer), 2025 (3 days) and 2026 (103 days). Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, arithmetic mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) of 1 to 30 April 2027, read on 5 May 2027 with the values as then published. The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the mean is taken on the April days published and their number is stated; the reading is void if none is published. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (below 90; from 90 to below 150; at or above 150) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. April means on file: 67.9 (2017), 70.4 (2025), 85.0 (2026), 97.6 (2021), 105.7 (2020), 116.0 (2019), 121.8 (2022), 156.9 (2015), 177.5 (2018), 186.1 (2016), 233.0 (2024), 238.7 (2023). The April mean is a starting level, not a reading of the summer: it does not separate the episode years from the others (67.9 in 2017 with no day under 22; 105.7 in 2020 with 46 days). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the May 2027 mean flow, read on 5 June 2027, against 42.7 to 60.5 m3/s, the range of the precedent years; the May ranges of the three branches overlap. | MEDIUM | 33 % (30–35) |
| 2027-05-05 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | The mean daily flow of the Meuse at Chooz in April 2027 is below 150 m3/s and at or above 90 m3/s. Years on file in this band: 2019 (21 days of the 12-day mean under 22), 2020 (46), 2021 (0) and 2022 (38). Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, arithmetic mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) of 1 to 30 April 2027, read on 5 May 2027 with the values as then published. The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the mean is taken on the April days published and their number is stated; the reading is void if none is published. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (below 90; from 90 to below 150; at or above 150) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. April means on file: 67.9 (2017), 70.4 (2025), 85.0 (2026), 97.6 (2021), 105.7 (2020), 116.0 (2019), 121.8 (2022), 156.9 (2015), 177.5 (2018), 186.1 (2016), 233.0 (2024), 238.7 (2023). The April mean is a starting level, not a reading of the summer: it does not separate the episode years from the others (67.9 in 2017 with no day under 22; 105.7 in 2020 with 46 days). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the May 2027 mean flow, read on 5 June 2027, against 57.5 to 105.3 m3/s, the range of the precedent years; the May ranges of the three branches overlap. | MEDIUM | 36 % (35–37) |
| 2027-05-05 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | The mean daily flow of the Meuse at Chooz in April 2027 is at or above 150 m3/s. Years on file at or above 150: 2015, 2016, 2018, 2023 and 2024, none with a day of the DREAL 12-day mean under 22; in 2018 a unit was nevertheless stopped in autumn. Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, arithmetic mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) of 1 to 30 April 2027, read on 5 May 2027 with the values as then published. The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the mean is taken on the April days published and their number is stated; the reading is void if none is published. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (below 90; from 90 to below 150; at or above 150) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. April means on file: 67.9 (2017), 70.4 (2025), 85.0 (2026), 97.6 (2021), 105.7 (2020), 116.0 (2019), 121.8 (2022), 156.9 (2015), 177.5 (2018), 186.1 (2016), 233.0 (2024), 238.7 (2023). The April mean is a starting level, not a reading of the summer: it does not separate the episode years from the others (67.9 in 2017 with no day under 22; 105.7 in 2020 with 46 days). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the May 2027 mean flow, read on 5 June 2027, against 86.9 to 174.0 m3/s, the range of the precedent years; the May ranges of the three branches overlap. | MEDIUM | 31 % (30–35) |
| 2027-05-31 | Illinois fall ammonia window | If upbound ammonia through Locks 27 in November 2026 is at or above 36,600 short tons, the 2018–2025 November low, then the fall programme was supplied in a November window that opened after soils cooled, and upbound ammonia through Locks 27 stays inside its 2018–2026 ranges in spring 2027: at or below 52,900 short tons in March and at or below 30,000 in April, as after the warm, dry fall of 2024 (30,040 in March and 14,000 in April 2025). | MEDIUM | 51 % (45–58) then 83 % |
| 2027-05-31 | Illinois fall ammonia window | If upbound ammonia through Locks 27 in November 2026 is below 36,600 short tons while its Illinois River component is at or above 6,000, the 2018–2025 November low on that river, then the low count measures terminals filled by the record September (92,020 short tons) rather than a curtailed window, and spring 2027 at Locks 27 stays inside its 2018–2026 ranges: at or below 52,900 short tons in March and at or below 30,000 in April. | LOW | 42 % (36–49) then 81 % |
| 2027-05-31 | Illinois fall ammonia window | If upbound ammonia in November 2026 is below 6,000 short tons through the Illinois River lock and below 36,600 through Locks 27, both under their 2018–2025 November lows, then fall application was deferred, as the trade-press claim states, and spring 2027 at Locks 27 runs above its 2018–2026 highs: above 52,900 short tons in March and above 30,000 in April, up to the demonstrated monthly maximum of 92,020 (September 2026). | LOW | 5 % (4–6) then 9 % |
| 2027-05-31 | Peru anchovy / fishmeal | If PRODUCE authorises no north-centre anchovy fishing for fishmeal before 1 April 2027, Peru's monthly fishmeal exports (BCRP, from customs data) stay at or below 40 thousand tonnes in every month from November 2026 to March 2027, inside the 2023 band of 6.0 to 35.6 kt, because the 2026 first season yields at most about 117,000 tonnes of meal and oil and the south zone adds at most about 62,000. | HIGH | 82 % (78–88) then 93 % |
| 2027-06-30 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | Conjecture on Gulf sulfur refining and marketing: as long as the value at export exceeds the quarterly Tampa contract by a wide margin, the share of US sulfur exported stays above its 2024 and 2025 level, and the fourth-quarter contract at 615 USD per long ton (605 USD per tonne) is the buyer's price for keeping tonnes at home. Necessary sign: in the USGS issues for August, September and October 2026, exports total at least 600 thousand tonnes over the three months (504 and 413 in the same months of 2024 and 2025; 897 in May to July 2026; the highest three-month sum before 2026 is 687) and the simple mean of the three monthly unit values is at or above 605 (three-month means on file reach that level only for April to June and May to July 2026). Reading rule: the sign is read on the first of these dates on which the three issues are on the USGS file store: 29 January, 26 February, 31 March, 30 April, 31 May, 30 June 2027; if they are not all posted on 30 June 2027 the reading is void. The dates follow the posting record, not the data cut-off: the same three months of 2025 were posted 110 to 136 days after their month, and the longest delay on file is 249 days. Falsifiers: exports at or below 504 thousand tonnes with a mean unit value still at or above 605; exports at or above 600 with a mean unit value under 605, in which case the tonnes leave for another reason than the price gap. The sign does not judge who gives up value: sellers of molten sulfur without a forming outlet have no export alternative, and no public figure of forming capacity was found. | MEDIUM | 60 % (55–63) then 57 % |
| 2027-10-06 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | The EIA on-highway diesel price, taxes included, on the Monday survey of 4 October 2027 is at or above 6.199 USD per gallon, its level on the day the order was signed, 1.34 above the EIA outlook mean for October 2027 (4.859, outlook of 10 November 2026). A return of the relief at that level would be a decision, not a consequence of the print. Reading rule: that single print as it stands in the EIA workbook on Wednesday 6 October 2027; if the survey is absent the reading is void. Watched beside it and not scored, read at the Federal Register, the IRS newsroom and Congress by 31 December 2027: a section 7508A text or a statute settling the tax of October to December 2026, a federal dyed-fuel relief issued on another trigger, and a text stating that on-road inspections have resumed. None of them is a consequence of the price. | LOW | 13 % (11–20) |
| 2027-10-06 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | The EIA on-highway diesel price, taxes included, on the Monday survey of 4 October 2027 is at or above 4.859 USD per gallon, the EIA outlook mean for October 2027 (outlook of 10 November 2026), and below 6.199, its level on the day the order was signed. Reading rule: that single print as it stands in the EIA workbook on Wednesday 6 October 2027; if the survey is absent the reading is void. Watched beside it and not scored, read at the Federal Register, the IRS newsroom and Congress by 31 December 2027: a section 7508A text or a statute settling the tax of October to December 2026, a federal dyed-fuel relief issued on another trigger, and a text stating that on-road inspections have resumed. None of them is a consequence of the price. | MEDIUM | 42 % (30–52) |
| 2027-10-06 | US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026 | The EIA on-highway diesel price, taxes included, on the Monday survey of 4 October 2027 is below 4.859 USD per gallon, the EIA outlook mean for October 2027 (outlook of 10 November 2026). Marker inside the branch: at or below 3.711, the survey of 6 October 2025, the rise of 2026 is fully reversed. Reading rule: that single print as it stands in the EIA workbook on Wednesday 6 October 2027; if the survey is absent the reading is void. Watched beside it and not scored, read at the Federal Register, the IRS newsroom and Congress by 31 December 2027: a section 7508A text or a statute settling the tax of October to December 2026, a federal dyed-fuel relief issued on another trigger, and a text stating that on-road inspections have resumed. None of them is a consequence of the price. | MEDIUM | 45 % (38–50) |
| 2027-11-30 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is at or above 700 USD per tonne: the level of the third-quarter 2026 Tampa contract (705 USD per long ton, 694 per tonne) held on average over seven months, which only June and July 2026 reached as single months. Residual read beside it: 2,530 to 2,934, from a second fall of the size of the first to the 2026 level. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. | LOW | 28 % (22–42) |
| 2027-11-30 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is above 300 and below 700 USD per tonne: under the mid-2026 level and above the level of late 2025; the fourth-quarter 2026 contract (615 USD per long ton, 605 per tonne) sits in this band, as do seven of the last twelve months. Residual read beside it: 2,935 to 3,337, between the 2026 and the 2025 levels. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. | MEDIUM | 59 % (50–60) |
| 2027-11-30 | US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026 | The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is at or below 300 USD per tonne: back to the level of the Tampa contract of October 2025 (310 USD per long ton, 305 per tonne), the highest since the second quarter of 2022. Residual read beside it: 3,338 to 3,413, from the 2025 level to the 2024 level; it can stay under this band if phosphate capacity was closed in the meantime, and the reading then says which. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. | LOW | 13 % (8–20) |
| 2028-01-04 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | In 2027 the DREAL 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz is under 22 m3/s on 46 days or more. Precedents: 2020 and 2026, two of twelve years. Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, number of days between 1 January and 31 December 2027 on which the 12-day mean of the daily flows is under 22 m3/s, read on 4 January 2028 with the values as then published; days after 31 October count (none on file from 2015 to 2026). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If daily values are missing on that day, the count is made on the 12-day means that can be formed and the days without one are stated; the reading is void if no 12-day mean can be formed. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (46 days or more; 1 to 45; none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. Counts on file: 0 in 2015 to 2018, 2021, 2023 and 2024; 21 (2019), 46 (2020), 38 (2022), 3 (2025), 103 (2026). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the days under 24.1 m3/s, the edge of the regulatory zone with two units running (31 in 2018, then 38, 55, 56, 16 and 112 for the same years). The output withheld at Chooz over 2027 is an order of magnitude and is not scored. | LOW | 22 % (20–25) |
| 2028-01-04 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | In 2027 the DREAL 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz is under 22 m3/s on 1 to 45 days. Precedents: 2019, 2022 and 2025, three of twelve years. Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, number of days between 1 January and 31 December 2027 on which the 12-day mean of the daily flows is under 22 m3/s, read on 4 January 2028 with the values as then published; days after 31 October count (none on file from 2015 to 2026). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If daily values are missing on that day, the count is made on the 12-day means that can be formed and the days without one are stated; the reading is void if no 12-day mean can be formed. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (46 days or more; 1 to 45; none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. Counts on file: 0 in 2015 to 2018, 2021, 2023 and 2024; 21 (2019), 46 (2020), 38 (2022), 3 (2025), 103 (2026). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the days under 24.1 m3/s, the edge of the regulatory zone with two units running (31 in 2018, then 38, 55, 56, 16 and 112 for the same years). The output withheld at Chooz over 2027 is an order of magnitude and is not scored. | MEDIUM | 34 % (33–35) |
| 2028-01-04 | Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026 | In 2027 the DREAL 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz is under 22 m3/s on no day. Precedents: seven of twelve years; six of them have no day under 24.1 m3/s either and no reported loss; the seventh, 2018, has 31 days under 24.1 and a reported stop. Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, number of days between 1 January and 31 December 2027 on which the 12-day mean of the daily flows is under 22 m3/s, read on 4 January 2028 with the values as then published; days after 31 October count (none on file from 2015 to 2026). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If daily values are missing on that day, the count is made on the 12-day means that can be formed and the days without one are stated; the reading is void if no 12-day mean can be formed. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (46 days or more; 1 to 45; none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. Counts on file: 0 in 2015 to 2018, 2021, 2023 and 2024; 21 (2019), 46 (2020), 38 (2022), 3 (2025), 103 (2026). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the days under 24.1 m3/s, the edge of the regulatory zone with two units running (31 in 2018, then 38, 55, 56, 16 and 112 for the same years). The output withheld at Chooz over 2027 is an order of magnitude and is not scored. | MEDIUM | 44 % (40–47) |