A coastal El Niño at +5.4 °C shut Peru's second anchovy season; in August Peru shipped four fifths less fishmeal than a year earlier, at an export value per tonne 86 percent higher.

Why these three series belong together

Three open series follow the chain from water to fish to feed: the weekly Niño 1+2 sea temperature anomaly off Peru and Ecuador (NOAA), Peru's monthly fishmeal exports (BCRP, from customs data) and the World Bank's monthly fish meal price, read against soybean meal. The step from water to fish rests on the survey of IMARPE, Peru's marine institute, not on a series.

What the water did

The anomaly rose from +1.9 °C in mid-May [F5] to +5.4 °C in the week of 28 October [F1], the highest in the series, which starts in 2012, above the 2023 peak of +3.5 [F3] and the 2015 peak of +2.7 [F4]. Peru's El Niño commission, ENFEN, expects extraordinary coastal warming until February 2027; NOAA gives more than 83 percent odds of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January–March 2027.

What the fishery and the exports did

IMARPE's October survey found 5.12 million tonnes of north-centre anchovy, 27.9 percent below summer, 79 percent juveniles by number. The first season, suspended from late April, closed on 19 August with 24.61 percent of its quota landed. Exports fell year on year from May: 23.2 kt against 65.7 [F51] [F52], 51.4 against 184.1 in June [F53] [F54], 33.0 against 159.2 in July [F46] [F55], 18.3 against 99.4 in August [F32] [F33]. In 2023, when a season was last cancelled, May to December ran between 6.0 [F36] and 35.6 kt [F37].

What the price did

The World Bank fish meal price went from 2,103 USD/t in July [F12] to 2,605 in August [F13] and 2,916 in September [F10]. July opened a new specification, herring meal FOB North Germany, so it has three months and comparisons with 2025 cross a break; whether the step is the new quotation finding its level or a lagging one catching up is read both ways. A continuous open measure is Peru's export unit value, the declared value per tonne timed by shipment, not a market quote: 2,715.90 USD/t in August against 1,456.81 a year earlier [F61] [F60]. Against soybean meal at 447 [F22], the World Bank ratio went from 5.13 [F28] to 6.52 [F26].

The mechanism, and what else could explain it

Hypothesis · Warm water pushed the anchovy toward the coast, south and deeper, and left a small, young stock. IMARPE's 2026 rule requires 5 million tonnes of spawners left in the sea, so 5.12 million tonnes, two thirds juvenile by weight, leaves no room for a quota. Until 2027 Peru ships from stock and the south zone, and buyers bid for what remains.

Hypothesis · North Atlantic quota cuts and weak Chilean catches lift the same price; BioMar, Austevoll and Pelagia name them beside Peru, and the series cannot apportion the rise; ICES advice for 2027 is up, herring by 10 percent and mackerel by 102 percent, so that explanation stays open but weaker for 2027. Chinese demand is a weak brake: China's aquafeed output rose 17.4 percent in the first half on domestic marine ingredients, while its share of Peru's fishmeal export value fell from 79.45 to 65.47 percent as Denmark and Japanese importers bought more.

Who sits on this chain

Austevoll reports the May ban over juveniles and warm water at its Peruvian unit Austral; Exalmar's average fishmeal price rose 39.4 percent in the first quarter; the fisheries society SNP estimates about 500,000 tonnes of fishmeal not produced. Buying, Skretting speaks of a marine raw-material crisis, BioMar of tight supply, Mowi, SalMar and Bakkafrost of rising feed costs; Haid grew aquafeed volumes despite record fishmeal prices. Veramaris and Innovafeed offer algal oil and insect protein.

Hypothesis · Deduced: TASA, Diamante and Hayduk stand idle on the north-centre; FoodCorp Chile, Camanchaca, TripleNine and Omega Protein sell into the gap; Ecuador's shrimp farmers (Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura) and mills such as Vitapro pay more for meal mostly from Peru; USSEC, Corbion, Protix and Calysta gain where formulas allow substitution.

A conditional sensitivity, not a forecast

Scenario · Assume a salmon feed at the 2013 Norwegian inclusion of 18 percent fish meal, an upper bound since inclusion has fallen. Every 100 USD on fish meal then adds 18 USD to a tonne of feed; the August-to-September move within the new specification, 2,605 [F13] to 2,916 [F10], adds about 56 USD. Behind it, last year's 1.63-million-tonne second-season quota at Austral's 2026 yield of 24.8 percent means about 404,000 tonnes of meal and oil missing from November to January.

What would change this reading

Hypothesis · If the anomaly is still at or above +2.0 °C in the week of 24 February 2027, the March 2027 World Bank price should hold at 2,916 USD/t or more; the dossier's upper reference is not a ceiling. Below +1.0 °C the band is 2,605 to 2,916: no north-centre fish arrives before a resolution in late March or April, and in 2023-24 the price gave back under 10 percent before new supply, 1,883 [F16] to 1,702 [F18]. Exports above 40 kt in a month before April, an earlier authorisation or a ratio below 5 with the zone closed would break this reading.