METHODS

Evidence before the claim.

Three public series, one chain of events

An edition starts from a shock, climate or geopolitical, and crosses three public data series around it: one physical (a river stage, a temperature, a transit count), one economic (a price, a freight quote, a tariff) and one flow (tons moved, cargoes loaded, units produced), from at least two publishers. The crossing is retained only if no source already publishes it side by side.

Four layers, never mixed

Observed: a value published by a source, or recomputed from it; every figure on a page is recomputed from the published observations before the page is built. Constrained: a physical law, a capacity, a supply reality, a contract or a calendar, each quoted verbatim from a dated source. Conjectured: a mechanism or a crossing that the sources do not state, judged against the constraints, with what would falsify it. Anticipated: a conditional trajectory, bounded, dated, settled against the series when its horizon passes. A sentence that mixes two layers is wrong by construction; the page labels each paragraph as fact, hypothesis or scenario.

Organisations with evidence

The organisations on a chain are found from declared directories, not from memory, and each carries a verbatim quotation from a public page with its URL and date. Evidenced means the quote itself places the organisation on the chain; deduced means the position is inferred from its business, and the record says what is not shown. No person is named.

Hypotheses that can lose

Each edition states two or three conditional hypotheses with an indicator, a threshold and a date. When the date passes, the outcome is written on the signal page, confirmed or invalidated. The atlas keeps its record.

Six checks at build, then a second pair of eyes

Structure, recomputation, rights, evidence, hygiene and reasoning are checked by programs every time the site is built; a failure blocks publication. Relevance and truth are not a program's job: every reasoning dossier is written by one agent and reviewed by another that has not seen the author's work, and disagreements are kept.

Rights and limits

Every series keeps the rights of its publisher, recorded with the policy page consulted and its date. Editions describe observed series, name mechanisms and state dated hypotheses; they are not investment, trading, procurement or legal advice.