Supply shock · Florida (phosphate mining and fertilizer production, Tampa customs district) · 13 Nov 2026
US phosphate: exports of sulfur and of DAP and MAP rise in 2026 while a producer curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; the direction is new, the export level is not
Acceptedby an independent counter-analyst, 13 Nov 2026
In 30 seconds
- What happened
- The Mosaic Company produced 23 percent less phosphate in the third quarter of 2026 than a year earlier and cites limited affordable sulfur, while US exports of sulfur and of phosphate fertiliser were above their 2025 level.
- Why it matters
- The data do not say whether the tonnes removed are missing at home or were unsold there first: weak US demand is an open rival explanation, one third of the export rise precedes the curtailment, and the 2026 export level is ordinary for the 2010s.
- What to watch
- October exports in the USDA trade file on 15 December 2026, against 125,000 and 105,000 short tons of nutrient; the Illinois distributor price of DAP in the report nearest 11 December; the company's texts on plant rates by 5 March 2027; and what follows the duty-free window for Moroccan phosphate on 28 February 2027.
The chain
- L1 · ConsistentValue of US sulfur at export (unit value, USGS)More US sulfur exported; whether less was used at home is not measured
- L2 · ConsistentCost of sulfur under the quarterly Gulf contract (522, then 705, then 615 USD per long ton)Curtailment of the company's US phosphate production
- L3 · ContradictedCurtailment of the largest US phosphate producerFewer US exports of DAP and MAP (the direct expectation)
The Mosaic Company states on 3 November 2026 that it curtailed US phosphate production, citing limited affordable sulfur: 1,289 thousand tonnes in the third quarter against 1,677 a year earlier. The unit value of US sulfur exports went from 227 to 992 USD per tonne between July 2025 and July 2026, and US exports of DAP and MAP reached 1,363 thousand short tons of nutrient over January to September against 845. That export level is under every year from 2010 to 2020; what is new is exports rising while a producer curtails.
Geography: Florida (phosphate mining and fertilizer production, Tampa customs district) / Louisiana (idled phosphate fertilizer production; Gulf Coast refinery sulfur) / Illinois (distributor price of DAP before spring application).
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Behind this edition: a reasoning dossier of 57 sourced constants, 15 bounded constraints and a 11-link chain (5 untested, 1 contradicted), accepted by an independent reviewer on 2026-11-13. Read the dossier →
The three data series
Data table (the twelve points drawn for each series)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 256.20 |
| 2025-09 | 263.74 |
| 2025-10 | 262.73 |
| 2025-11 | 356.42 |
| 2025-12 | 318.31 |
| 2026-01 | 427.81 |
| 2026-02 | 502.20 |
| 2026-03 | 351.15 |
| 2026-04 | 536.48 |
| 2026-05 | 689.50 |
| 2026-06 | 773.58 |
| 2026-07 | 991.90 |
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 121 |
| 2025-09 | 182 |
| 2025-10 | 110 |
| 2025-11 | 218 |
| 2025-12 | 71 |
| 2026-01 | 169 |
| 2026-02 | 91 |
| 2026-03 | 260 |
| 2026-04 | 233 |
| 2026-05 | 438 |
| 2026-06 | 212 |
| 2026-07 | 247 |
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 708.30 |
| 2025-12 | 627.50 |
| 2026-01 | 619.20 |
| 2026-02 | 626.50 |
| 2026-03 | 658.30 |
| 2026-04 | 725.30 |
| 2026-05 | 769.50 |
| 2026-06 | 783.80 |
| 2026-07 | 781.30 |
| 2026-08 | 793.50 |
| 2026-09 | 800.60 |
| 2026-10 | 803.10 |
Each panel draws the last twelve points of a series its publisher lets us share, on its own scale. A dashed line marks a threshold of one of the dated hypotheses below. Restricted observations are not sent to the browser.
Why these series belong together
Sulfur, as sulfuric acid, is an input of the phosphate fertilisers DAP and MAP. Three public series are read: the unit value and the tonnage of US sulfur exports (USGS, to July 2026) and the Gulf DAP price (World Bank). US exports of DAP and MAP, in the USDA trade file, are restricted: declared totals are cited, values are read at the source. The expectation under test: a producer that curtails leaves fewer tonnes to export.
What the company states
The Mosaic Company's release of 3 November 2026 puts third-quarter phosphate sales at 1.4 million tonnes against 1.6 million a year earlier, "reflecting production curtailments implemented as a result of limited affordable sulfur availability". Production was 1,289 thousand tonnes against 1,677, after curtailments in May and early July. Sulfur cost the company 715 USD per long ton in the quarter; its fourth-quarter contract is at 615. Press only: a notice of 5 October idling a Florida rock mine from 8 December for more than six months.
What sulfur did
Over January to July 2026 US recovered sulfur production was 4,568 thousand tonnes against 4,390 a year earlier and exports 1,650 against 1,052; stocks were flat. The export unit value, a customs value and not a quoted price, went from 227 USD per tonne in July 2025 [F1] to 992 in July 2026 [F2]. "Sulfur used from domestic sources" fell from 3,338 to 2,934, but it is a residual, shipments less exports, and 336 of the 404 are May: 230 against 566 [F5, F6], the month exports reached 438 against 83 [F3, F4]. The survey supports less sulfur kept at home for May only.
What phosphate trade did, and the texts in force
US exports of DAP and MAP reached 1,363 thousand short tons of nutrient over January to September 2026 against 845 a year earlier. The level is ordinary for the 2010s: under every year from 2010 to 2020, and up from the lowest year of a file that starts in 2010. What is new is the direction: third-quarter exports 73 percent above 2025 while the company's production was 23 percent lower. One third of the rise dates from January to April, before the first curtailment. India, absent from January to April, took 217 from May, 42 percent of the rise. The file names no exporter.
Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation of Moroccan phosphate fertilisers, shipment by shipment, until 28 February 2027 at the latest; it states that US production "is insufficient to support domestic agricultural food production after accounting for exports". The 2021 countervailing duty order stays, with a cash deposit of 16.60 percent outside the window.
The mechanism, and what else could explain it
Hypothesis · Through September the expectation fails: output fell and exports rose. Tonnes sold abroad are missing at home before spring; or weak US demand came first and exports are where unsold tonnes went: North American shipments were about 20 percent lower in the fall of 2025 by the company's estimate, and the second US producer lowered its phosphate guidance on 4 November "due to a deferral in customer demand and lower operating rates" at one plant, while the company writes that growers "re-engage". That rival is open, as are a one-time sale of stock and a base effect from 2025. A margin decision by one buyer on a quarterly contract, not a physical lack of sulfur, has the survey on its side: US production and stocks did not fall. Gulf DAP read 803.1 USD per tonne in October [F7] against 783.8 in June [F9] and 754.0 a year earlier [F8]; Illinois distributors asked 932.14 USD per short ton on 30 October [F10], one report with no history.
Who sits on this chain
Nutrien attributes lower phosphate earnings to "higher sulfur input costs"; Itafos to sulfur and sulfuric acid costs. Martin Midstream Partners reports an 83 percent rise in average sulfur product prices. Press only: Indian Potash Limited's letters of intent of May 2026 for 1.3465 million tonnes of DAP, United States among the origins; and OCP's first cargo since the duties were suspended, 54,000 tonnes of triple superphosphate.
Hypothesis · Deduced: Valero, Marathon Petroleum and PBF Energy recover sulfur at Gulf Coast refineries; their filings show no sulfur volumes or buyers.
A conditional sensitivity, not a forecast
Scenario · The company guides fourth-quarter sales of 1.3 to 1.6 million tonnes. If production stays at the third-quarter level, the middle of that range needs about 161 thousand tonnes from stock or purchased product, against about 111 in the third quarter (61 to 161, sales being rounded); the low end needs 11 and the high end 311.
Dated readings, and what stays disputed
Hypothesis · Dated readings: October exports on 15 December 2026, against 125,000 and 105,000 short tons; the company's texts on plant rates by 5 March 2027; the federal texts on what follows the Moroccan window, on 1 March 2027; the mean export unit value of sulfur for January to July 2027, on 30 November 2027; and five narrower signs.
Hypothesis · The counter-analysis keeps three disagreements: one company's share in the May figure is unsourced on both sides; the second producer's "deferral" names no country; the Indian facts have no primary source.
Hypothesis · Unconfirmed: the Florida notice itself; whose tonnes left through New Orleans. This edition judges no act and is not investment advice.
What to watch
- US exports of DAP and MAP, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file, read on 15 December 2026 (November alone on 15 January 2027)
- Illinois distributor DAP ask, USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report, reports of 27 November and 11 December 2026, against 932.14 USD per short ton
- Federal Register documents on phosphate fertilizers and the White House presidential-actions page: what follows Proclamation 11038, read on 1 and 8 March 2027
- USGS monthly sulfur survey: exports and export unit value of August to October 2026, read on the first date from 29 January to 30 June 2027 on which the three issues are posted
Open hypotheses
The record across all analyses →
| Hypothesis | Confidence | Horizon | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are at or above 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: the export level of the third quarter continues, at a level no October of 2022 to 2025 reached and ten of the twelve Octobers of 2010 to 2021 did. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. | MEDIUM | 2026-12-15 | OPEN |
| US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are above 105,000 and below 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: above the October record of 2022 to 2025 and under the level of the third quarter, neither continued nor reversed. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. | LOW | 2026-12-15 | OPEN |
| US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are at or below 105,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: inside the October record of 2022 to 2025; the third-quarter level does not continue. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. | MEDIUM | 2026-12-15 | OPEN |
| At least one text of The Mosaic Company states the restart of the idled Louisiana plant, a higher operating rate at a named curtailed US phosphate plant, or the end of the sulfur-related curtailments at the plants, and no text states a reduction. Production band read beside it: 1,345 to 1,504; a figure in the middle band with this branch true is recorded as a timing effect, a text dated late in the window raising only the last weeks of the quarter. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). | LOW | 2027-03-05 | OPEN |
| No text of The Mosaic Company states a raise or a reduction of the operating rate of a US phosphate plant: the plants stay as described through 13 November 2026, whatever is restated about the mines. Production band read beside it: 1,206 to 1,344. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). | HIGH | 2027-03-05 | OPEN |
| At least one text of The Mosaic Company states a lower operating rate, the idling or the closure of a US phosphate plant that was in operation on 13 November 2026; this branch takes precedence if texts of both kinds exist. Production band read beside it: 901 to 1,205; a figure in the middle band with this branch true is recorded as a timing effect, a reduction announced late in the window removing few tonnes in the quarter. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). | LOW | 2027-03-05 | OPEN |
| At least one text permits duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco for three months or more beyond 28 February 2027, by prolonging Proclamation 11038 or by a new declaration, or extends it to other origins under the order on Russia. A text permits arrivals and does not compel them: a May-to-September sum under 33,000 with this branch true is the case 'window open, origin absent' and is recorded as such. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. | MEDIUM | 2027-03-01 | OPEN |
| At least one text keeps a relief narrower than Proclamation 11038 beyond 28 February 2027 (duty-free importation permitted for less than three months, a quantity limit, or named shipments only), and no text permits entry for three months or more. No precedent of this kind was read for this order; the branch is kept because the Commerce notice of 8 July 2026 already works shipment by shipment. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. | LOW | 2027-03-01 | OPEN |
| No text permits duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco beyond 28 February 2027, in full or in a narrower form: the window ends on that date as written, or earlier if a text terminates the emergency, and the cash deposit applies again to shipments not approved before the end. The record under the order does not say which level of arrivals returns after a lapse: about 1,000 short tons over May to September 2025, the one year on file under the present deposit, and 25,000 to 31,000 in 2022 to 2024 under deposits of 19.97 then 2.12 percent. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. | MEDIUM | 2027-03-01 | OPEN |
| The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is at or above 700 USD per tonne: the level of the third-quarter 2026 Tampa contract (705 USD per long ton, 694 per tonne) held on average over seven months, which only June and July 2026 reached as single months. Residual read beside it: 2,530 to 2,934, from a second fall of the size of the first to the 2026 level. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. | LOW | 2027-11-30 | OPEN |
| The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is above 300 and below 700 USD per tonne: under the mid-2026 level and above the level of late 2025; the fourth-quarter 2026 contract (615 USD per long ton, 605 per tonne) sits in this band, as do seven of the last twelve months. Residual read beside it: 2,935 to 3,337, between the 2026 and the 2025 levels. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. | MEDIUM | 2027-11-30 | OPEN |
| The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is at or below 300 USD per tonne: back to the level of the Tampa contract of October 2025 (310 USD per long ton, 305 per tonne), the highest since the second quarter of 2022. Residual read beside it: 3,338 to 3,413, from the 2025 level to the 2024 level; it can stay under this band if phosphate capacity was closed in the meantime, and the reading then says which. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. | LOW | 2027-11-30 | OPEN |
| Conjecture, not shown by a series: domestic buyers stepped back first (fall 2025; cutbacks planned for fall 2026 as reported in the press in July), tonnes were placed abroad from January 2026 and to India from May, and production was curtailed in May and July; if domestic buyers return for fall 2026 and spring 2027, as the seller states on 3 November 2026, the tonnes the curtailment removes are missing from the domestic market. The rival reading is that they do not return in full and nothing is missing (demand first). Necessary sign, stated so that it can fail: US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026, read in the USDA AgTransport trade file on 15 December 2026 (on 31 December if October is absent; absent then, void), are at or above 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient, a level no October of 2022 to 2025 reached and that ten of the twelve Octobers of 2010 to 2021 reached. The sign is necessary and does not discriminate: exports can stay high with a domestic market that is short of nothing. Falsifiers: October exports at or below 105,000; the Illinois ask at or under 932.14 in the reports of 27 November and 11 December 2026 with October exports at or above 125,000, which is the demand-first reading; the company reporting fourth-quarter phosphate sales at or above 1.5 million tonnes with North American demand named as the destination; the second US producer reporting fourth-quarter phosphate sales under its lowered guidance and repeating that customers defer. | LOW | 2026-12-15 | OPEN |
| Conjecture, not shown by a series: domestic buyers stepped back first (fall 2025; cutbacks planned for fall 2026 as reported in the press in July), tonnes were placed abroad from January 2026 and to India from May, and production was curtailed in May and July; if domestic buyers return for fall 2026 and spring 2027, as the seller states on 3 November 2026, the tonnes the curtailment removes are missing from the domestic market. The rival reading is that they do not return in full and nothing is missing (demand first). Discriminating sign, weaker because it rests on one earlier point: the Illinois distributor ask for DAP in the USDA report nearest 11 December 2026 is above 932.14 USD per short ton, its value in the report of 30 October 2026, while the World Bank November average of DAP, published in the first days of December, stays under 827 USD per tonne (3 percent above October). An inland price that rises alone points to tonnes missing at home; a Gulf price that rises with it does not separate the two readings; an inland ask at or under 932.14 is the demand-first reading. No history of the Illinois ask was collected, so the usual size of its difference with the Gulf price is not known. | LOW | 2026-12-11 | OPEN |
| Conjecture on Gulf sulfur refining and marketing: as long as the value at export exceeds the quarterly Tampa contract by a wide margin, the share of US sulfur exported stays above its 2024 and 2025 level, and the fourth-quarter contract at 615 USD per long ton (605 USD per tonne) is the buyer's price for keeping tonnes at home. Necessary sign: in the USGS issues for August, September and October 2026, exports total at least 600 thousand tonnes over the three months (504 and 413 in the same months of 2024 and 2025; 897 in May to July 2026; the highest three-month sum before 2026 is 687) and the simple mean of the three monthly unit values is at or above 605 (three-month means on file reach that level only for April to June and May to July 2026). Reading rule: the sign is read on the first of these dates on which the three issues are on the USGS file store: 29 January, 26 February, 31 March, 30 April, 31 May, 30 June 2027; if they are not all posted on 30 June 2027 the reading is void. The dates follow the posting record, not the data cut-off: the same three months of 2025 were posted 110 to 136 days after their month, and the longest delay on file is 249 days. Falsifiers: exports at or below 504 thousand tonnes with a mean unit value still at or above 605; exports at or above 600 with a mean unit value under 605, in which case the tonnes leave for another reason than the price gap. The sign does not judge who gives up value: sellers of molten sulfur without a forming outlet have no export alternative, and no public figure of forming capacity was found. | MEDIUM | 2027-06-30 | OPEN |
| Conjecture on India: the purchases that pulled US DAP from May 2026 are seasonal blocks by a state buyer; they stop when the rabi stock is covered and do not depend on the US producer's situation. The mechanism rests on press: the letters of intent of May 2026 and the compensation of importers are reported by a trade publication relaying a price reporter, and no Indian government text was found. Necessary sign: the USDA AgTransport trade file shows no US-origin DAP or MAP to India in each of December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027. Record: since 2022 the sign held in two winters of four and failed in two, each time on December; on the sixteen winters of the file from December 2010 it held in five and failed in eleven. It tests the company's sentence of 3 November 2026 that the rabi tonnes are 'expected to be depleted by year-end'. Reading rule: read on 15 April 2027; if February 2027 is absent, on 30 April 2027; absent then, void. Falsifiers: a US-origin row of DAP or MAP to India in any of the three months; a new block purchase by the Indian state buyer announced before 31 January 2027 with United States among the origins, reported with its text. India took 42 percent of the January to September 2026 rise in US exports; the other 58 percent does not depend on it. Not tested: whether purchases resume in the next season, May to September 2027. | LOW | 2027-04-15 | OPEN |
| Conjecture on the import side: the duty-free window is the instrument the government chose on the ground it states, that US production 'is insufficient to support domestic agricultural food production after accounting for exports' (Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026). Necessary sign, on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (DAP; MAP and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), Moroccan origin, phosphorus nutrient short tons, read at the source: at least two of the five months from October 2026 to February 2027 are above 10,000, a cargo-sized month. Record: eleven such months under the order of 7 April 2021 before the window, and none of the five October-to-February periods under the order has two. Reading rule: 15 April 2027; if February 2027 is absent, 30 April 2027; absent then, void. If the sign fails, the window was open and the origin did not come in those months: the binding constraint is then elsewhere than the duty (price asked, freight, the origin's own commitments, or the season). If it holds, it shows use of the window, not its cause: arrivals of this size also occurred under the order in 2022 to 2024 with a deposit collected. Falsifiers: fewer than two such months; a text terminating the emergency before 28 February 2027. | LOW | 2027-04-15 | OPEN |
Who is concerned
32 organisations, each with a verbatim public quote and a dated source; evidenced when the quote itself places the organisation on this chain, deduced when the exposure is inferred from its business. Where the universe came from →
Data you can manipulate
Free downloads carry the last twelve observations of each series its publisher lets us share; the full series, the dossier and the exports are in Premium. Series restricted by their publisher are cited with a link to read them at source.
| Series | Family | Unit | Publisher · rights | Download (sample) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAP (diammonium phosphate), monthly average spot price, nominal US dollars per metric ton, as printed in the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) monthly workbook updated 3 November 2026; the benchmark definition is on the workbook Description sheet | Economic | US$ per metric tonne | World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet) · open attribution | JSON · CSV |
| DAP (diammonium phosphate 18-46-0), Illinois statewide distributor ask average, F.O.B. (USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report, bi-weekly). Only the report of 30 October 2026 was collected; earlier 2022-2026 reports could not be reached | Economic | US dollars per short ton | USDA Agricultural Marketing Service · public domain | JSON · CSV |
| Phosphate rock, monthly average price, nominal US dollars per metric ton, as printed in the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) monthly workbook updated 3 November 2026; the benchmark definition is on the workbook Description sheet | Economic | US$ per metric tonne | World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet) · open attribution | JSON · CSV |
| U.S. exports through the customs district of Tampa, Florida, domestic and foreign merchandise, all destinations. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient "Phosphorus", from USDA AgTransport "Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source | Flow | short tons of nutrient | USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute) · restricted | cited, read at source |
| TSP (triple superphosphate), monthly average spot price, nominal US dollars per metric ton, as printed in the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) monthly workbook updated 3 November 2026; the benchmark definition is on the workbook Description sheet | Economic | US$ per metric tonne | World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet) · open attribution | JSON · CSV |
| U.S. exports to India, domestic and foreign merchandise, all customs districts. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient "Phosphorus", from USDA AgTransport "Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source | Flow | short tons of nutrient | USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute) · restricted | cited, read at source |
| U.S. exports, domestic and foreign merchandise, all customs districts and destinations. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient "Phosphorus", from USDA AgTransport "Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source | Flow | short tons of nutrient | USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute) · restricted | cited, read at source |
| U.S. imports for consumption from Morocco, all customs districts. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient "Phosphorus", from USDA AgTransport "Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source | Flow | short tons of nutrient | USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute) · restricted | cited, read at source |
| U.S. imports for consumption, all customs districts and origins. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient "Phosphorus", from USDA AgTransport "Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source | Flow | short tons of nutrient | USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute) · restricted | cited, read at source |
| U.S. exports minus U.S. imports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient; derived from the two series above (same file, same restriction) · derived: diff of us-dap-map-exports-p-st, us-dap-map-imports-p-st | Flow | short tons of nutrient | USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute) · restricted | cited, read at source |
| U.S. sulfur consumption from domestic sources, calculated by USGS as shipments minus exports, Table 5 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, "Sulfur in July 2026" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits) | Flow | thousand metric tons | U.S. Geological Survey · public domain | JSON · CSV |
| Average f.a.s. unit value of U.S. sulfur exports: export value divided by export quantity, both from USGS Table 4; a customs unit value, not a quoted market or contract price · derived: ratio of us-sulfur-exports-value-kusd, us-sulfur-exports-kt | Economic | US dollars per metric ton | U.S. Geological Survey · public domain | JSON · CSV |
| U.S. domestic exports of elemental sulfur, quantity, Table 4 (U.S. Census Bureau trade data as printed by USGS) (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, "Sulfur in July 2026" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits) | Flow | thousand metric tons | U.S. Geological Survey · public domain | JSON · CSV |
| U.S. domestic exports of elemental sulfur, declared free-alongside-ship value, Table 4 (U.S. Census Bureau trade data as printed by USGS) (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, "Sulfur in July 2026" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits) | Economic | thousand US dollars | U.S. Geological Survey · public domain | JSON · CSV |
| Average customs unit value of U.S. sulfur imports: import value divided by import quantity, both from USGS Table 2; a customs unit value, not a quoted market or contract price. Table 2 is headed "Data adjusted by U.S. Geological Survey and Acuity Commodities": a private firm takes part in the adjustment and its terms were not read, so the series is held RESTRICTED · derived: ratio of us-sulfur-imports-value-kusd, us-sulfur-imports-kt | Economic | US dollars per metric ton | U.S. Geological Survey · restricted | cited, read at source |
| U.S. imports for consumption of elemental sulfur, all countries, quantity, Table 2 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, "Sulfur in July 2026" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits). Table 2 is headed "Data adjusted by U.S. Geological Survey and Acuity Commodities": a private firm takes part in the adjustment and its terms were not read, so the series is held RESTRICTED | Flow | thousand metric tons | U.S. Geological Survey · restricted | cited, read at source |
| U.S. imports for consumption of elemental sulfur, all countries, customs value, Table 2 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, "Sulfur in July 2026" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits). Table 2 is headed "Data adjusted by U.S. Geological Survey and Acuity Commodities": a private firm takes part in the adjustment and its terms were not read, so the series is held RESTRICTED | Economic | thousand US dollars | U.S. Geological Survey · restricted | cited, read at source |
| Recovered elemental sulfur produced in the United States, petroleum refineries plus natural gas plants, Table 1 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, "Sulfur in July 2026" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits) | Physical | thousand metric tons | U.S. Geological Survey · public domain | JSON · CSV |
| Producer stocks of sulfur in the United States at end of month, subject to inventory adjustments, Table 1 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, "Sulfur in July 2026" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits) | Physical | thousand metric tons | U.S. Geological Survey · public domain | JSON · CSV |
Figures, recomputed at every build
| Id | Series | Statistic | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | US sulfur export unit value | value · 2025-07 | 227.18 US dollars per metric ton |
| F2 | US sulfur export unit value | value · 2026-07 | 991.90 US dollars per metric ton |
| F3 | US sulfur exports, quantity | value · 2026-05 | 438 thousand metric tons |
| F4 | US sulfur exports, quantity | value · 2025-05 | 83 thousand metric tons |
| F5 | US sulfur use from domestic sources | value · 2026-05 | 230 thousand metric tons |
| F6 | US sulfur use from domestic sources | value · 2025-05 | 566 thousand metric tons |
| F7 | DAP price, World Bank Pink Sheet | value · 2026-10 | 803.10 US$ per metric tonne |
| F8 | DAP price, World Bank Pink Sheet | value · 2025-10 | 754 US$ per metric tonne |
| F9 | DAP price, World Bank Pink Sheet | value · 2026-06 | 783.80 US$ per metric tonne |
| F10 | Illinois DAP, distributor ask | value · 2026-10-30 | 932.14 US dollars per short ton |
Every number above is recomputed from the published observations before this page is built; a mismatch stops the build. Sources: World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet), USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute), U.S. Geological Survey. Signal data sheet →
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