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SIGNAL · Low water · 2026-09-24

Rhine record low at Kaub, fuel deliveries to the Swiss Rhine ports and heating-oil prices, July–October 2026

The WSV raw record at Kaub shows the Rhine daily mean below 78 cm on 74 days between 10 July and 24 September 2026, a daily minimum of 2 cm on 24 September and of −6 cm on 1 October, before a partial recovery to 20 cm by 23 October. Inbound mineral oil products at the Swiss Rhine ports fell from 125,541 t in June to 93,982 t in July, 38,791 t in August and 33,584 t in September, while the German consumer price of heating gas oil rose from 1,135.2 to 1,712.8 EUR per 1000 L between 29 June and 19 October.

Geography: Kaub, Rhineland-Palatinate (Rhine gauge) / Karlsruhe, Baden-Württemberg (Upper Rhine ports) / Swiss Rhine ports, Basel area / Rotterdam (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub). Trigger: source. Edition: A German river gauge emptied Swiss fuel barges, and Switzerland opened its jet-fuel stocks. Dossier: accepted on 2026-10-24.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: Port of Switzerland — Hafenverzeichnis (port company directory) (Category 'Umschlag Flüssiggüter' (six firms) read in full, plus the pages of Ultra-Brag, Rhenus Alpina and Birsterminal; Rhenus Alpina and Birsterminal handle dry cargo and were left out.); CARBURA — members list (Swiss compulsory-stock importers (about 47 entries); used to confirm Migrol, Tamoil, Voegtlin-Meyer, Suter Joerin, Swiss International Air Lines and Vitol Aviation Switzerland as importer-stockholders.); en2x — Mitglieder (37 German refiners, importers and wholesalers screened for Rhine refineries; Shell and the VARO entities retained, inland refineries off the Rhine (e.g. Ingolstadt) left out.); BWL / OFAE press releases of 15 and 23 October 2026 (Jet-fuel release for Zurich airport (15 Oct) and diesel release after the southern France pipeline delay (23 Oct).); CCNR press release, 10 September 2026 (Low water on the Rhine; dependent sectors.); Press read on 2026-10-24 (Platts via Hellenic Shipping News (refineries, barge rates); also Le News 15 Oct 2026, logistik-heute/dpa, Il Sole 24 Ore, Tank Terminals/Argus, Ports Europe and SWZ Maritime, each cited as the evidence URL of the organisation it supports.); SPSE — transport et stockage d'hydrocarbures (crude route Fos-sur-Mer to Cressier) (Added in rework round 1 for the crude pipeline route into Switzerland, which the Rhine does not carry.); Avenergy Suisse — Über uns (Added in rework round 1; the association quoted for the modal split of Swiss imports.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-12-01. If the federal hydrology institute's central path holds, the Rhine at Kaub reads below 100 cm on 30 November 2026, as both daily minimum and daily mean, so the low-water constraint on Basel-bound tankers is still in force at the start of December. Indicators: Rhine water level at Kaub, daily minimum on 30 November 2026 (WSV PEGELONLINE, gauge 25700100); Rhine water level at Kaub, daily mean on 30 November 2026 (WSV PEGELONLINE, gauge 25700100).

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-01-31. If the Kaub daily mean on 30 November 2026 is below 100 cm, inbound mineral oil at the Swiss Rhine ports stays between 30,000 and 100,000 t in November and between 30,000 and 130,000 t in December 2026; if it is at or above 100 cm, December intake reaches at least 90,000 t. Intake outside the band of the branch that occurs refutes the river reading of Basel supply. Indicators: Inbound mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports, November and December 2026, lower bound in both branches (Port of Switzerland monthly bulletin); Inbound mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports, November 2026, upper bound if Kaub stays below 100 cm; Inbound mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports, December 2026, upper bound if Kaub stays below 100 cm; Inbound mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports, December 2026, lower bound if Kaub is at or above 100 cm; Rhine water level at Kaub, daily mean on 30 November 2026 (branch condition).

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-01-15. If the Kaub daily mean stays below 100 cm through November, every weekly Germany-minus-Belgium heating-oil spread in the EC Weekly Oil Bulletin from 26 October to 28 December 2026 stays between −82.0 and 171.4 EUR per 1000 L, the range observed from July to October, because the river premium is regional and averages out of the national price. A reading above 250 EUR per 1000 L while Kaub is below 40 cm would show a national premium after all. Indicators: Germany minus Belgium heating gas oil consumer price, weekly, lower bound (EC Weekly Oil Bulletin); Germany minus Belgium heating gas oil consumer price, weekly, upper bound (EC Weekly Oil Bulletin); Rhine water level at Kaub, daily mean, condition through November 2026.

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Sources and reuse

Port of Switzerland (Schweizerische Rheinhäfen) — No open licence. Legal notice: "Die Inhalte dieser Internetpräsenz, insbesondere Texte, Grafiken und herunterladbare Dateien, sind urheberrechtlich geschützt"; storage only for non-commercial personal use, other uses need written permission. Public-law institution; figures citable, not redistributed. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

European Commission, DG Energy — Weekly Oil Bulletin — Commission reuse policy (Decision 2011/833/EU): "content owned by the EU on this website is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence"; credit the source and indicate changes. © European Union, 1995-2026. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

Wasserstraßen- und Schifffahrtsverwaltung des Bundes (WSV), PEGELONLINE — Datenlizenz Deutschland – Zero – Version 2.0 (DL-DE->Zero-2.0). Terms of use (Stand 21.05.2024): "Informationen, Produkte oder Dienste, die Sie von dieser Website erhalten, dürfen übernommen werden. Dies geschieht auf der Grundlage der Lizenz DL-DE->Zero-2.0"; commercial use, modification and redistribution permitted without attribution. Raw water levels are unverified. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)