DOSSIER · Low water · Kaub, Rhineland-Palatinate (Rhine gauge) / Karlsruhe, Baden-Württemberg (Upper Rhine ports) / Swiss Rhine ports, Basel area / Rotterdam (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub) · reviewed 2026-10-24
A German river gauge emptied Swiss fuel barges, and Switzerland opened its jet-fuel stocks
When the Kaub gauge falls below the level at which Rhine tankers can load, which Swiss importer pays spot barge freight or rail premia for fuel products, when does the federal office release compulsory stocks, and what does the German consumer pay for the river once the common crude shock from Hormuz is stripped out through the Germany-minus-Belgium spread? Unlike the Mississippi grain case, the cargo is refined fuel, the buyer is a landlocked country with statutory stocks and two other routes, and the price signal is a national average that must be read net of a crude shock.
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INDEPENDENT REVIEW · ACCEPTED
Accepted by an independent reviewer. Written by atlas-analyst, reviewed by atlas-counter-analyst on 2026-10-24. Two rounds at most; what the reviewer and the author still disagree on is kept, not resolved by majority.
Review notes, as written
Counter-analysis 2026-10-24 (docs/night-2026-10-24/rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md): all 33 quotes verified at their URLs; two constants and the trajectory need rework, nothing rejected. K13: 'almost ten times' read as 10 puts January at 20 EUR/t; ZDF/Reuters (4 Aug) gives 45 EUR/t at end-June and S&P 35 EUR/t pre-shock ARA-Basel, so the rise (C4, J4) is 155-165 not 180. K19: SAPPRO publishes a current throughput (about 1 million m3 a year, about 10 percent of Swiss consumption), superseding 2004; C6 headroom falls to about 55,000-60,000 t a month, and the 41 percent pipeline share (K16) is mostly crude to the Cressier refinery via the Jura pipeline, which is absent from organisations. T1: BfG 6-week forecast of 22 Oct puts weekly-mean medians at about 40/60/45/65/65/85 cm and the 14-day forecast a daily-mean peak near 91 cm on 28-29 Oct, so the likely November path (40-100 cm) falls between the two branches; add a middle branch; spread bands 80-210 and 40-170 are narrower than the series' own July-October range (-82 to 171). L7 CONTRADICTED confirmed: spread versus Kaub r=0.05, Belgium rose faster than Germany June-September, and the Swiss BFS monthly mean rose 35.3 percent against 40.7 (DE) and 44.2 (BE). L8/J4: the regional premium exists but sits in NRW, Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz (Bundeskartellamt July, ADAC 19 Aug, esyoil Bundesland 24 Oct: Hessen 178.52, RLP 177.30, NRW 177.22 against Niedersachsen 170.78 EUR/100 L; BW 172.55, Bayern 172.86), not in Baden-Wuerttemberg or Switzerland; re-aim the falsifier. J2: on BAZG 2026 H1 taxed jet volumes the release is 4.7 days, not 5.9, and the stock on hand is about 2.4 months; the third falsifier's direction is inverted. J3/L9: Argus 30 Jul documents Karlsruhe suppliers lowering truck-loading prices to clear trapped product, so the refinery-gate sign is a discount, not a premium; keep the volume advantage, drop 'margin event'. K3: 20 cm keel clearance is Contargo's; a 30 cm margin (official rule of thumb per pegeltiefgang.com) gives 77 cm of loading draft at the minimum. K8: BAW states 'bis zu 200 Tonnen' per 20 cm, an upper end. K9: Hapag-Lloyd publishes Kaub tiers down to 25 cm from 1 Nov; no public tanker clause found. Organisations: port-of-antwerp-bruges quote not on the page; MiRO BENEFICIARY reasoning must carry the Argus discount; add Cressier (VARO), SPSE/Jura pipeline and Avenergy Suisse. Analyst's earlier flags retained below. Previous notes by the author: Drafted from the seven series, thirty-three constants and a minimal edition written for the figures. Points for the counter-analyst: K3 to K6 and K9 describe container vessels and container carriage terms, used as the only public Rhine loading and contract rules; K7 is a single spokesperson's figure; K8 is trade press, not the BAW document; K18 and K19 are 2004 pipeline figures; K29 and K30 are chart labels; the DE minus BE spread is a national average and L7 is marked contradicted on that basis, with the regional test left untested; the day counts below GlW (74 days to 24 September) come from the signal summary and are not recomputed figures. Rework round 1 applied on 2026-10-24T02:01:10Z: item 1 (T1 rebuilt around the BfG central path with K50-K52, conditions as readings on 30 November, spread bands set to the series' own July-October and pre-July ranges), item 2 (L8 and J4 re-aimed to NRW, Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz with K40-K47, Swiss BFS means K48-K49; L7 kept CONTRADICTED with the reviewer's r = 0.05 noted), item 3 (J3 and L9 rewritten around the Argus refinery-gate discount K39, volume advantage kept), item 4 (K13 read as nine, C4 on the ZDF end-June baseline K34, K19 replaced by SAPPRO's current 1 million m3 with K35-K36 and C6 recomputed, BAZG volumes K37-K38 in J2), item 5 (organisations: Antwerp quote replaced by the served page title, MiRO BENEFICIARY reasoning carries the discount, SPSE and Avenergy Suisse added; Cressier not added because VARO's own article answers 404 on both of its domains). Disagreements kept as reviewer notes without edits to accepted items: K3 20 cm against the 30 cm rule of thumb, K8 as an upper end, C7 on the statutory stock basis (BAZG basis in J2), K29-K30 rounding band. Round 2 by atlas-counter-analyst, 2026-10-24: all new quotes (K13, K19, K34-K52; organisations port-of-antwerp-bruges, miro-karlsruhe, spse, avenergy-suisse) re-fetched and found verbatim; C4 = 155, C6 = 58,333.33, J2 = 4.71 days, J4 = 23.1 percent, F34-F36 and the T1 bands recomputed from the series and the BfG PDFs and found right; L8 CONSISTENT, J2/J3/J4 and T1 accepted. Verdict ACCEPTED; no REJECT and no REWORK remains on a constant, a check or a trajectory. Disagreements kept as notes, not edits: K3 20 cm against the 30 cm rule of thumb (77 cm of loading draft at the minimum); K8 as an upper end (BAW 'bis zu 200 Tonnen'); C7 on the statutory stock basis (26 percent of the jet window on BAZG consumption, stock on hand 2.4 months); K29-K30 rounding band 28-60 percent; K16 note still names SAPPRO only; L8 compares a Swiss monthly-mean rise with German and Belgian Monday readings (on monthly means 40.7 and 44.2 percent); L3 still says 'about 20 in January'; T1 conditions rest on one day's reading on 30 November; K18's 1.5 Mt licence is a 2006 figure; the SPSE 8 Mt figure sits on the presentation page, not the quoted one; Cressier (VARO) could be a DEDUCED entry on the SPSE quote. Details in docs/night-2026-10-24/rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md, section Round 2.
What this dossier holds
52 constants read verbatim from their sources, 12 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 9-link causal chain with a status per link (1 untested, 1 contradicted), 4 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 4 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 1 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Below the sample and the offer, a preview: the chain with its statuses, 5 of the constants with their quotes, the conjectures and trajectories by statement. The rest is the product.
A sample of the data
The last 5 points of 4 of the 7 series. Free downloads carry the last 12 points. Premium opens the available full series, dossiers and exports; restricted series remain cited, not redistributed.
| Series | Family · unit | latest | in total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heating oil price, Belgium | Economic · EUR per 1000 L | 1,538.1 | 1,562.9 | 1,533.4 | 1,597 | 1,545 | 42 |
| Heating oil price gap, Germany minus Belgium | Economic · EUR per 1000 L | 171.4 | 134.5 | 121 | 101.1 | 167.8 | 42 |
| Heating oil price, Germany | Economic · EUR per 1000 L | 1,709.5 | 1,697.4 | 1,654.4 | 1,698.1 | 1,712.8 | 42 |
| Rhine level at Kaub, daily minimum | Physical · cm | 9 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 115 |
Periods run from 2026-09-21 to 2026-10-19 on the first row; hover a value for its period. Downloads and provenance: data sheet →
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Preview: the chain
From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The evidence behind each link, and what validated it, are in the export.
- L1 · PHYSICALConsistentlag 0–0 days
Kaub gauge usable loading draft at the Middle Rhine bottleneck
The gauge sets the channel depth through a fixed offset of 113 cm; at the record of −6 cm on 1 October the loading draft fell to 87 cm, below an empty large vessel's draft, and on 15 October (F5) it was still 102 cm.
- L2 · PHYSICALConsistentlag 0–2 days
usable loading draft tonnes per tanker sailing to Basel
Tonnes per sailing fall with the draft: a quarter of normal load at 44 cm in mid-July, a sixth for a large vessel at 60 cm by the carrier's own table, and nothing for conventional vessels below about 30 cm. The Atlas has no loading series; the constraint makes the link necessary.
- L3 · ECONOMICConsistentlag 0–14 days
tonnes per tanker sailing spot freight per tonne, ARA to the Upper Rhine
Fewer tonnes per sailing and contracts that lapse at 80 cm push importers onto spot freight: about 200 EUR per tonne to Karlsruhe in early October against about 20 in January. Press figures only; no open freight series exists.
- L4 · LOGISTICALObservedlag 0–30 days
Kaub gauge and draft mineral oil landed at the Swiss Rhine ports
Monthly inbound mineral oil fell with the gauge in the same month: 93,982 t in July (F11) when the daily mean first dropped below GlW (F6), 38,791 t in August (F12) and 33,584 t in September (F13), 27 percent of June. Total inbound cargo fell too (F17 to F18), so the cause is the river, not the fuel market alone.
- L5 · LOGISTICALConsistentlag 7–60 days
lost barge tonnage rail, pipeline and road substitution, and rail congestion
About 16 percent of Swiss mineral-oil imports had to move to rail (31 percent of imports in normal times), pipeline (41 percent, serving the west) or road. The federal office states that Rhine cargo was shifted onto an already heavily used railway and that deliveries from Germany then failed; the Atlas has no rail tonnage series.
- L6 · BEHAVIOURALConsistentlag 0–14 days
failed rail deliveries and depleted site stocks federal release of compulsory stocks
Facing failed jet-fuel trains to Zurich, the delegate released up to 30,000 m³ of jet fuel on 15 October (6.5 percent of the stock) and, after pipeline delays, up to 45,000 m³ of diesel on 23 October. Both releases stay inside the 20 percent the delegate may grant alone.
- L7 · ECONOMICContradictedlag 7–42 days
spot barge freight German national heating-oil consumer price, net of the common crude shock
If Rhine freight entered the national average, the Germany-minus-Belgium spread should have widened as Kaub fell. It moved from 132 EUR per 1000 L at the end of June to 167.8 on 19 October, below its January level of 206 and within its weekly swings (82 on 7 September, 171.4 on 21 September). The national series does not show the premium. The reviewer's recomputation on the same series: correlation between the weekly spread and the Kaub mean of the preceding seven days, July to October, r = 0.05 (n = 16); on monthly means Belgium rose faster than Germany from June to September.
- L8 · ECONOMICConsistentlag 7–42 days
spot barge freight delivered fuel prices in the Rhine-supplied Länder (Nordrhein-Westfalen, Hessen, Rheinland-Pfalz)
The premium is measured where product arrives by Rhine barge, not in the south: on 24 October heating oil cost 178.52 EUR per 100 L in Hessen, 177.30 in Rheinland-Pfalz and 177.22 in Nordrhein-Westfalen against 170.78 in Niedersachsen, with Baden-Württemberg (MiRO) at 172.55 and Bayern (southern crude pipelines) at 172.86; the Bundeskartellamt found pump-price gaps of up to 11 cents per litre in July and the ADAC more than 8 cents in August, attributed to Rhine low water. The Swiss monthly mean rose 35.3 percent from June to September, less than the German and Belgian Monday readings over the same weeks (49.5 and 55.8 percent, F19 to F35 and F23 to F36), so no national Swiss premium shows either. A daily Bundesland series is the one to collect.
- L9 · ECONOMICUntestedlag 7–60 days
ARA route cut at Kaub MiRO's Upper Rhine barge volumes and its refinery-gate prices
Two documented facts with opposite price signs: barges left on the Upper Rhine load at Karlsruhe for Strasbourg and Basel, and tankers from Karlsruhe can take more load than those crossing Kaub (volume advantage, evidenced by Platts, tankterminals and the Swiss Rhine ports); and suppliers at the refinery cut truck-loading prices for heating oil, diesel and petrol to clear product they can no longer barge away (gate discount, Argus 30 July). The earlier reading of a regional sales premium is withdrawn. What remains untested is the landed price at Basel of Karlsruhe product against ARA product plus spot freight; no refinery price or loading series is in the Atlas.
Preview: 5 of the 52 constants
Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source. 47 more, and the 12 bounded constraints recomputed from them, are in the export.
| Id | Constant | Value | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K1 | Fairway depth at equivalent water level (GlW), Budenheim/Niederwalluf to St. Goar (Rhine km 508 to 557) “Budenheim/Niederwalluf 1,90 m” | 190 cm | physical | source, 2022-12-22 |
K2 | Equivalent water level GlW 2022 at the Kaub gauge “Kaub 77 540,00 - 566,00” | 77 cm | physical | source, 2022-12-22 |
K3 | Keel clearance deducted from the fairway depth before loading “Aus Sicherheitsgründen wird eine Kielfreiheit von ca. 20 cm einberechnet.” | 20 cm | physical | source, 2017-05-26 |
K4 | Empty draft of a large inland vessel, lower end of the stated range “Containerbinnenschiffe haben bereits unbeladen einen Tiefgang von ca. 90 –130 cm (Leertiefgang).” | 90 cm | physical | source, 2017-05-26 |
K5 | Maximum load of a 135 m vessel at a Kaub gauge of 60 cm “Bei einem Pegelstand Kaub von 60 cm (entspricht einer Fahrrinnnentiefe von 172 cm) reduziert sich die maximale Abladung auf nur noch 900 Tonnen.” | 900 tonnes | capacity | source, 2017-05-26 |
Preview: what the author concludes
4 conjectures by statement. Their quantities, the checks run against the constraints, what would prove each wrong, and the 4 alternative explanations with their discriminators are in the export.
- J1 · LOCAL · confidence medium
While the Kaub daily mean stays below 40 cm, monthly inbound mineral oil at the Swiss Rhine ports stays below 60,000 t, roughly the August-September band and under half of June; the floor is not zero because shallow-draft tankers and Karlsruhe shuttles keep moving.
- J2 · CROSS GEOGRAPHY · confidence medium
A German gauge drove a Swiss federal decision: with Kaub at 9 cm on 15 October, the federal office reports other goods already shifted from the Rhine onto a heavily used railway (that fuel moved with them is inferred), rail deliveries from Germany then failed, and the delegate released jet fuel worth about 4.7 days of 2026 taxed consumption to bridge an 18-day window at Zurich. The stock on hand implied by the 6.5 percent, about 461,500 cubic metres, covers about 72 days of that consumption, 2.4 months against the statutory three. Further releases follow if the gauge stays low into the heating season, inside the delegate's 20 percent ceiling.
- J3 · CROSS SECTOR · confidence low
Low water is a volume event with an undetermined price sign for the refinery above the bottleneck: its barges serve Strasbourg and Basel while the ARA route is closed, and tankers loading at Karlsruhe carry more than those crossing Kaub, but suppliers at the gate cut truck-loading prices to clear product that a quarter of the refinery's dispatch can no longer barge away. Its normal monthly barge dispatch is 2.6 times the Swiss ports' June intake, so Swiss supply from Karlsruhe is limited by Upper Rhine draft and tanker availability, not by refinery volume; whether Basel pays Karlsruhe a premium or a discount is open.
- J4 · LOCAL · confidence medium
The national Germany-minus-Belgium spread cannot detect the Rhine premium: its change from late June to mid-October is under a quarter of the per-tonne freight rise, so either less than a quarter of German heating-oil volume is priced off Rhine freight, or the premium is regional and averaged away. The measured premium sits in Hessen, Rheinland-Pfalz and Nordrhein-Westfalen against Niedersachsen and Hamburg, not in Baden-Württemberg or Switzerland, whose monthly mean rose less than Germany's; the test belongs in a daily Bundesland series, not in the Weekly Oil Bulletin.
T1 · 2026-10-24 → 2026-12-31
Swiss Rhine port intake and the DE minus BE heating-oil spread to the end of 2026, around the BfG central path
- bfg-central-path-below-100: Kaub daily mean water level on 30 November 2026 (the reading on that date, not persistence); the BfG median path puts November weekly means at about 45 to 65 cm
< 100by 2026-11-30 - recovery-at-or-above-100: Kaub daily mean water level on 30 November 2026 (the reading on that date); the BfG 75th percentile reaches 100 cm only in weeks 4 to 6
>= 100by 2026-11-30
Paths by period and implications by organisation: in the export.
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