SIGNAL · Heat · 2026-10-16

Peru cancels its second anchovy season: fishmeal against soybean meal, October 2026

Accepted

On 16 October 2026 Peru's Production Ministry said it will not authorise a second anchovy season in the north-centre zone: IMARPE's survey 2609-10 estimates 5.12 Mt of biomass (27.9% below summer 2026) with 79% juveniles by number, under anomalously warm conditions. The weekly Niño 1+2 anomaly reached +5.4 °C in the week of 28 October; Peru exported 18.3 kt of fishmeal in August 2026 against 99.4 kt in August 2025, at an export unit value of 2,716 USD/t against 1,457. On the World Bank's new fish meal specification (from July 2026) the price rose from 2,103 USD/t in July to 2,916 in September, 6.5 times soybean meal against 5.1 in July. The warm-water link to the stock is consistent, not observed.

Geography: Peru, north-centre anchovy fishing zone / Chile (salmon aquafeed demand) / China (fishmeal import destination) / Norway (salmon aquafeed demand) / Niño 1+2 region, coastal eastern Pacific (0–10°S, 90°W–80°W) / Ecuador (shrimp aquafeed demand) / Japan (fishmeal import destination). The report that started this signal → Edition: A coastal El Niño at +5.4 °C shut Peru's second anchovy season; in August Peru shipped four fifths less fishmeal than a year earlier, at an export value per tonne 86 percent higher.. Dossier: reviewed on 2026-11-03.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: Sociedad Nacional de Pesquería — empresas asociadas (Member list read for company names only (60 members); fishmeal producers taken from it: TASA, Austral, Copeinca, Exalmar, Diamante, Hayduk.); PRODUCE press note of 16 October 2026 (The hook; names PRODUCE and IMARPE as decision-maker and scientific source.); Austevoll Seafood ASA — Q2 and H1 2026 presentation (Pelagic units in Peru (Austral) and Chile (FoodCorp), IFFO production, China imports and port stocks.); BioMar Group — first half 2026 interim report (Feed formulator view of Peruvian quotas and marine ingredient prices.); Primicias — AquaExpo 2026 coverage on shrimp feed costs (20 October 2026) (Ecuadorian buyers and feed suppliers present at AquaExpo: CNA, Skretting, Vitapro.); Gestión — harina de pescado tag page (2025–2026 Peruvian company coverage (Exalmar, Copeinca, Austral, Diamante); used to cross-check the SNP list and find Copeinca's owner Cooke.); Mowi ASA — investor reports page (Q2 2026 report; Oslo-listed salmon farmers screened alongside SalMar, Lerøy and Bakkafrost via trade press.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence high · horizon 2027-05-31. If PRODUCE authorises no north-centre anchovy fishing for fishmeal before 1 April 2027, Peru's monthly fishmeal exports (BCRP, from customs data) stay at or below 40 thousand tonnes in every month from November 2026 to March 2027, inside the 2023 band of 6.0 to 35.6 kt, because the 2026 first season yields at most about 117,000 tonnes of meal and oil and the south zone adds at most about 62,000. Indicators: Peru fishmeal exports, monthly volume, November 2026 to March 2027 (BCRP PN38765BM); PRODUCE resolution authorising the 2027 north-centre first season, dated on or after 1 April 2027.

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-04-30. If the weekly Niño 1+2 anomaly in the week containing 24 February 2027 is still at or above +2.0 °C, the World Bank fish meal price for March 2027 is at or above 2,916 USD/t, its September 2026 level, because the summer survey and the end-of-March decision fall inside the warm period and no north-centre fish reaches the market before April; the dossier sets no ceiling on the upper end. Indicators: Niño 1+2 SST anomaly, weekly, week of 24 February 2027 (NOAA CPC); World Bank Pink Sheet fish meal price, March 2027.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-04-30. If the weekly Niño 1+2 anomaly in the week containing 24 February 2027 is below +1.0 °C, the World Bank fish meal price for March 2027 eases but stays between 2,605 and 2,916 USD/t, its August and September 2026 levels, because a cooling sea brings forward the prospect of a season, not the fish: no north-centre catch reaches the market before a resolution at the end of March or in April, and in 2023-24 the price gave back under 10 percent before new supply. A reading between +1.0 and +2.0 °C leaves both this and the warm hypothesis unresolved. Indicators: Niño 1+2 SST anomaly, weekly, week of 24 February 2027 (NOAA CPC); World Bank Pink Sheet fish meal price, March 2027, floor; World Bank Pink Sheet fish meal price, March 2027, ceiling.

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Sources and reuse

World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet) — Terms of Use for Datasets, linked from the Commodity Markets page under 'Using this Data': "Unless specifically labeled otherwise, these Datasets are provided to you under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), with the additional terms below." The summary terms add that some third-party indicators may carry their own conditions in their metadata; the Pink Sheet cocoa column cites ICCO and Bloomberg as underlying sources without a separate restriction. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú — BCRPData — BCRPData Condiciones de Uso: "Puede reproducirse total o parcialmente, sin autorización expresa, siempre y cuando se cite la fuente." No restriction on commercial reuse is stated; the BCRP adds that responsibility for statistics from external sources (here SUNAT customs data) lies with the original provider. Credit: BCRP (BCRPData), from SUNAT. (policy, checked 2026-11-03)

NOAA National Weather Service — Climate Prediction Center — NWS disclaimer, linked from every CPC page: "The information on National Weather Service (NWS) Web pages are in the public domain, unless specifically noted otherwise"; may be used for any lawful purpose without claiming it, implying endorsement, or presenting modified content as official. U.S. federal work (17 U.S.C. §105). (policy, checked 2026-11-01)