DOSSIER · Heat · Peru, north-centre anchovy fishing zone · reviewed 2026-11-03
A coastal El Niño at +5.4 °C shut Peru's second anchovy season; in August Peru shipped four fifths less fishmeal than a year earlier, at an export value per tonne 86 percent higher.
For BioMar, Skretting and Guangdong Haid formulating first-half 2027 aquafeed, and for Ecuador's shrimp feed mills, with no north-centre anchovy fishing before IMARPE's summer 2027 survey, does the September 2026 World Bank fish meal price of 2,916 USD/t justify covering now or shifting the marginal inclusion to soybean meal and algal oil, and which survey reading and which resolution date settle the 2027 first season?
Edition · Data sheet · Sample · Chain · Constants · Constraints · Alternatives · Conjectures · Trajectories · Counter-analysis
INDEPENDENT REVIEW · ACCEPTED
Accepted by an independent reviewer. Written by atlas-analyst, reviewed by atlas-counter-analyst on 2026-11-03. Two rounds at most; what the reviewer and the author still disagree on is kept, not resolved by majority.
The reviewer's notes, as written, are in the full dossier.
What this dossier holds
45 constants read verbatim from their sources, 12 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 8-link causal chain with a status per link (3 untested, 0 contradicted), 4 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 4 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 1 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Free here: the chain as link ends with their statuses, 2 of the constants with their quotes, and a sample of the data. The rest is the product.
A sample of the data
The last 5 points of 4 of the 8 series. Free downloads carry the last 12 points; Premium opens the full series.
| Series | Family · unit | latest | in total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fish meal / soybean meal price ratio | Economic · ratio | 4.85 | 5.12 | 5.13 | 6.42 | 6.52 | 177 |
| Fish meal price, World Bank Pink Sheet | Economic · US$ per metric tonne | 2,045 | 2,145 | 2,103 | 2,605 | 2,916 | 177 |
| Niño 1+2 SST, weekly | Physical · °C | 26 | 26.1 | 26.2 | 26.3 | 26.7 | 774 |
| Niño 1+2 SST anomaly, weekly | Physical · °C | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 774 |
Periods run from 2026-05 to 2026-09 on the first row; hover a value for its period. Downloads and provenance: data sheet →
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The chain
From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The reasoning and the evidence behind each link are in the full dossier.
- L1 · PHYSICALConsistent
Niño 1+2 sea surface temperature anomaly anchovy distribution, juvenile share and acoustic biomass
- L2 · BEHAVIOURALConsistent
IMARPE survey and recommendations PRODUCE season decisions (suspension, conclusion, no second season)
- L3 · LOGISTICALObserved
north-centre fishing stopped Peru's monthly fishmeal exports
- L4 · ECONOMICObserved
Peruvian export shortfall (one fifth of world supply) fishmeal price in Europe
- L5 · ECONOMICObserved
fishmeal price fish meal to soybean meal price ratio
- L6 · BEHAVIOURALUntested
price ratio above 6 inclusion shifts in aquafeed formulas (soy protein, algal oil, single-cell protein)
- L7 · ECONOMICUntested
higher unit value and fewer tonnes destination mix of Peru's exports (China, Europe, Japan, Ecuador)
- L8 · PHYSICALUntested
El Niño Costero persisting to February 2027 the 2027 north-centre first season (survey, resolution, quota)
IN THE FULL DOSSIER
The evidence behind each link
For each of the 8 links: the reasoning in the author's words, the lag in days, the figures and series cited as evidence, and what validated or contradicted it.
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2 of the 45 constants
Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source.
| Id | Constant | Value | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K1 | IMARPE acoustic biomass of the north-centre anchovy stock, survey 2609-10 (data to 7 October 2026) “Los resultados del Crucero Científico 2609-10, con información al 7 de octubre de 2026, estiman una biomasa acústica de aproximadamente 5.12 millones de toneladas.” | 5.12 million tonnes | physical | source, 2026-10-16 |
K2 | Biomass change against the summer 2026 survey “Esta cifra es 27.9 % inferior a la registrada en el verano de 2026 y 22.8 % menor que el promedio de las biomasas acústicas de invierno-primavera del periodo 1996-2025.” | 27.90 percent below the summer 2026 estimate | physical | source, 2026-10-16 |
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43 more constants
Each with its value, unit, kind, the verbatim sentence it was read from and the dated source.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
12 bounded constraints
Physical, capacity, supply, contract, calendar and regulatory limits, each stated, bounded by a quantity and recomputed from the constants at every build.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
4 alternative explanations
What else could explain the data, what each would predict, the indicator that tells them apart, and whether it is open, weakened, supported or rejected.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
4 conjectures: what the author concludes
Each conclusion with its quantity, the checks run against the constraints and what would prove it wrong.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
1 conditional trajectory
Branch conditions with dated thresholds, paths by period with low and high bounds, and implications by organisation.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
The counter-analysis
The independent reviewer's notes and counter-analysis as written, with the disagreements kept. Verdict, public above: accepted by an independent reviewer.
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