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DOSSIER · Supply shock · Florida (phosphate mining and fertilizer production, Tampa customs district) · reviewed 2026-11-13

US phosphate: exports of sulfur and of DAP and MAP rise in 2026 while a producer curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; the direction is new, the export level is not

The Mosaic Company states on 3 November 2026 that it curtailed US phosphate production for lack of affordable sulfur and that two mines are curtailed further in the fourth quarter. US exports of sulfur and of DAP and MAP are above their 2025 level over the same months, and a third of the phosphate rise dates from January to April, before the first curtailment of May. The level of these exports is not new: in the publisher's trade file, which starts in January 2010, the nine-month total of 2026 is under that of every year from 2010 to 2020 and is reached from 2025, the lowest year of the file. What is new is the direction: exports rise in the quarters in which the company curtails. Before the spring 2027 application, a US farm retailer or grower decides when to cover phosphate, the company decides in its texts of the winter whether the operating rates of its US plants are raised, kept or lowered, and the US government decides by 28 February 2027 what follows the duty-free window for Moroccan phosphate: which public series, on which date, tells each of them whether the tonnes removed are missing from the domestic market or from the export market, whether domestic buyers stepped back before the tonnes were sold abroad, and at what value US sulfur keeps leaving the country?

Edition · Data sheet · Sample · Chain · Constants · Constraints · Alternatives · Conjectures · Trajectories · Counter-analysis

What this dossier holds

57 constants read verbatim from their sources, 15 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 11-link causal chain with a status per link (5 untested, 1 contradicted), 6 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 4 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 4 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Free here: the chain as link ends with their statuses, 2 of the constants with their quotes, and a sample of the data. The rest is the product.

The chain

From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The reasoning and the evidence behind each link are in the full dossier.

1. L1 · ECONOMICConsistent

   Value of US sulfur at export (unit value, USGS) → More US sulfur exported; whether less was used at home is not measured

2. L2 · ECONOMICConsistent

   Cost of sulfur under the quarterly Gulf contract (522, then 705, then 615 USD per long ton) → Curtailment of the company's US phosphate production

3. L3 · LOGISTICALContradicted

   Curtailment of the largest US phosphate producer → Fewer US exports of DAP and MAP (the direct expectation)

4. L4 · ECONOMICUntested

   Reduced output and finished stocks sold where the buyer pays more → Less phosphate left for the domestic market before spring

5. L5 · BEHAVIOURALObserved

   Indian state purchasing in blocks before a season, losses of importers compensated → US-origin DAP shipped to India from May 2026

6. L6 · LOGISTICALObserved

   Proclamation 11038 and Commerce's notice of 8 July 2026 (duty-free entry on request) → Arrivals of Moroccan phosphate in the United States

7. L7 · ECONOMICUntested

   Export pull and curtailed output → US Gulf DAP price (World Bank series)

8. L8 · ECONOMICUntested

   US Gulf DAP price → Price asked by Illinois distributors before spring

9. L9 · BEHAVIOURALUntested

   Price asked and expected availability → When US distributors and growers cover phosphate for spring 2027

10. L10 · BEHAVIOURALUntested

    Fourth-quarter sulfur contract at 615 USD per long ton and DAP at 820 to 840 at the plant → The company's next decision on its curtailments

11. L11 · BEHAVIOURALConsistent

    Stated insufficiency of domestic supply after exports → Government measures on the import side, duties kept

2 of the 57 constants

Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source.

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