{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","title":"US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026","date":"2026-11-03","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","geography":[{"code":"US-FL","name":"Florida (phosphate mining and fertilizer production, Tampa customs district)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-LA","name":"Louisiana (idled phosphate fertilizer production; Gulf Coast refinery sulfur)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-IL","name":"Illinois (distributor price of DAP before spring application)","latitude":null,"longitude":null}],"source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/files/content_files/Press-Release-Q3-2026-Exhibit-99-1-Final.pdf","summary":"The Mosaic Company's third-quarter release of 3 November 2026 puts phosphate sales volumes at 1.4 million tonnes against 1.6 million a year earlier, \"reflecting production curtailments implemented as a result of limited affordable sulfur availability\", with third-quarter sulfur at 715 USD per long ton and a fourth-quarter contract at 615. The USGS monthly sulfur survey, last month July 2026, shows US recovered sulfur production of 4,568 thousand tonnes over January–July 2026 against 4,390 a year earlier, exports of 1,650 against 1,052, and sulfur used from domestic sources (a residual: shipments less exports) of 2,934 against 3,338, the gap being for the most part the month of May; the average export unit value rose from 227 USD per tonne in July 2025 to 992 in July 2026. US exports of DAP and MAP, in phosphorus nutrient tons (USDA AgTransport, series restricted), reached 1,363 thousand short tons over January–September 2026 against 845 a year earlier (the lowest year of a file that starts in 2010; every year from 2010 to 2020 was above the 2026 total), with India absent over January–September 2025 and at 217 over the same months of 2026. The World Bank DAP benchmark stood at 803.1 USD per tonne in October 2026 against 754.0 in October 2025 and 627.5 in December 2025. The sulfur survey stops at July 2026 and the trade file at September 2026 (read on 13 November 2026).","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":58,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"dap-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"DAP (diammonium phosphate), monthly average spot price, nominal US dollars per metric ton, as printed in the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) monthly workbook updated 3 November 2026; the benchmark definition is on the workbook Description sheet","unit":"US$ per metric tonne","geography":"XZ","publisher":"world-bank","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_sha256":"3c8d9d8dbb48342fdbf24777c39a8ce8964cc2fd0958f72f6779e6e4ad99cde2","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet)","licence":"Terms of Use for Datasets, linked from the Commodity Markets page under 'Using this Data': \"Unless specifically labeled otherwise, these Datasets are provided to you under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), with the additional terms below.\" The summary terms add that some third-party indicators may carry their own conditions in their metadata; the Pink Sheet cocoa column cites ICCO and Bloomberg as underlying sources without a separate restriction.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-24","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-11","value":708.3},{"period":"2025-12","value":627.5},{"period":"2026-01","value":619.2},{"period":"2026-02","value":626.5},{"period":"2026-03","value":658.3},{"period":"2026-04","value":725.3},{"period":"2026-05","value":769.5},{"period":"2026-06","value":783.8},{"period":"2026-07","value":781.3},{"period":"2026-08","value":793.5},{"period":"2026-09","value":800.6},{"period":"2026-10","value":803.1}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":1,"observations_total":1,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"il-dap-usd-st","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"DAP (diammonium phosphate 18-46-0), Illinois statewide distributor ask average, F.O.B. (USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report, bi-weekly). Only the report of 30 October 2026 was collected; earlier 2022-2026 reports could not be reached","unit":"US dollars per short ton","geography":"US-IL","publisher":"usda-ams","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3195.pdf","source_sha256":"3e66f4b7aa50d2421ab8ab90c083444868bf233698a01d36dcf6a822ea56f840","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"USDA Agricultural Marketing Service","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). The Grain Transportation Report datasets are described by USDA as non-confidential and not copyrighted; attribution requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/gtr-datasets","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-30","value":932.14}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":58,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"phosphate-rock-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Phosphate rock, monthly average price, nominal US dollars per metric ton, as printed in the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) monthly workbook updated 3 November 2026; the benchmark definition is on the workbook Description sheet","unit":"US$ per metric tonne","geography":"XZ","publisher":"world-bank","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_sha256":"3c8d9d8dbb48342fdbf24777c39a8ce8964cc2fd0958f72f6779e6e4ad99cde2","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet)","licence":"Terms of Use for Datasets, linked from the Commodity Markets page under 'Using this Data': \"Unless specifically labeled otherwise, these Datasets are provided to you under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), with the additional terms below.\" The summary terms add that some third-party indicators may carry their own conditions in their metadata; the Pink Sheet cocoa column cites ICCO and Bloomberg as underlying sources without a separate restriction.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-24","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-11","value":152.5},{"period":"2025-12","value":152.5},{"period":"2026-01","value":152.5},{"period":"2026-02","value":152.5},{"period":"2026-03","value":152.5},{"period":"2026-04","value":152.5},{"period":"2026-05","value":152.5},{"period":"2026-06","value":156.9},{"period":"2026-07","value":170},{"period":"2026-08","value":170},{"period":"2026-09","value":170},{"period":"2026-10","value":170}]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"tampa-dap-map-exports-p-st","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. exports through the customs district of Tampa, Florida, domestic and foreign merchandise, all destinations. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient \"Phosphorus\", from USDA AgTransport \"Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient\" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source","unit":"short tons of nutrient","geography":"US-FL","publisher":"usda-agtransport-fertilizer-trade","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"4e731a05e6384016eb66c88f75008211ef85198c33e84808b8446002f917d248","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute)","licence":"No licence declared: dataset metadata reads license: null, useRestriction: \"n/a\", attribution \"U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute\"; \"Fertilizer commodity values are converted to nutrient-equivalent tons (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) using conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute.\" The institute's own site terms (https://www.tfi.org/terms-of-use/) reserve its content: \"for your personal, non-commercial use or internal business purpose only\". The dataset is not on the USDA list of non-copyrighted GTR datasets. Cited, not redistributed, until USDA states the terms.","licence_evidence_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue.json","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-13","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":58,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"tsp-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"TSP (triple superphosphate), monthly average spot price, nominal US dollars per metric ton, as printed in the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) monthly workbook updated 3 November 2026; the benchmark definition is on the workbook Description sheet","unit":"US$ per metric tonne","geography":"XZ","publisher":"world-bank","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_sha256":"3c8d9d8dbb48342fdbf24777c39a8ce8964cc2fd0958f72f6779e6e4ad99cde2","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet)","licence":"Terms of Use for Datasets, linked from the Commodity Markets page under 'Using this Data': \"Unless specifically labeled otherwise, these Datasets are provided to you under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), with the additional terms below.\" The summary terms add that some third-party indicators may carry their own conditions in their metadata; the Pink Sheet cocoa column cites ICCO and Bloomberg as underlying sources without a separate restriction.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-24","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-11","value":636.3},{"period":"2025-12","value":538.5},{"period":"2026-01","value":529.2},{"period":"2026-02","value":536.3},{"period":"2026-03","value":558.1},{"period":"2026-04","value":658.1},{"period":"2026-05","value":713.5},{"period":"2026-06","value":735.6},{"period":"2026-07","value":719.5},{"period":"2026-08","value":704.4},{"period":"2026-09","value":690},{"period":"2026-10","value":692}]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-dap-map-exports-india-p-st","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. exports to India, domestic and foreign merchandise, all customs districts. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient \"Phosphorus\", from USDA AgTransport \"Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient\" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source","unit":"short tons of nutrient","geography":"US","publisher":"usda-agtransport-fertilizer-trade","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"4e731a05e6384016eb66c88f75008211ef85198c33e84808b8446002f917d248","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute)","licence":"No licence declared: dataset metadata reads license: null, useRestriction: \"n/a\", attribution \"U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute\"; \"Fertilizer commodity values are converted to nutrient-equivalent tons (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) using conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute.\" The institute's own site terms (https://www.tfi.org/terms-of-use/) reserve its content: \"for your personal, non-commercial use or internal business purpose only\". The dataset is not on the USDA list of non-copyrighted GTR datasets. Cited, not redistributed, until USDA states the terms.","licence_evidence_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue.json","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-13","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. exports, domestic and foreign merchandise, all customs districts and destinations. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient \"Phosphorus\", from USDA AgTransport \"Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient\" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source","unit":"short tons of nutrient","geography":"US","publisher":"usda-agtransport-fertilizer-trade","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"4e731a05e6384016eb66c88f75008211ef85198c33e84808b8446002f917d248","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute)","licence":"No licence declared: dataset metadata reads license: null, useRestriction: \"n/a\", attribution \"U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute\"; \"Fertilizer commodity values are converted to nutrient-equivalent tons (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) using conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute.\" The institute's own site terms (https://www.tfi.org/terms-of-use/) reserve its content: \"for your personal, non-commercial use or internal business purpose only\". The dataset is not on the USDA list of non-copyrighted GTR datasets. Cited, not redistributed, until USDA states the terms.","licence_evidence_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue.json","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-13","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. imports for consumption from Morocco, all customs districts. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient \"Phosphorus\", from USDA AgTransport \"Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient\" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source","unit":"short tons of nutrient","geography":"US","publisher":"usda-agtransport-fertilizer-trade","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"4e731a05e6384016eb66c88f75008211ef85198c33e84808b8446002f917d248","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute)","licence":"No licence declared: dataset metadata reads license: null, useRestriction: \"n/a\", attribution \"U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute\"; \"Fertilizer commodity values are converted to nutrient-equivalent tons (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) using conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute.\" The institute's own site terms (https://www.tfi.org/terms-of-use/) reserve its content: \"for your personal, non-commercial use or internal business purpose only\". The dataset is not on the USDA list of non-copyrighted GTR datasets. Cited, not redistributed, until USDA states the terms.","licence_evidence_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue.json","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-13","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-dap-map-imports-p-st","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. imports for consumption, all customs districts and origins. Diammonium phosphate (HS 310530) plus monoammonium phosphate and other (HS 310540), rows labelled nutrient \"Phosphorus\", from USDA AgTransport \"Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient\" (U.S. Census Bureau volumes converted to nutrient-equivalent short tons with conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute). A month with no row in the file is written 0. Redistribution terms not settled: read at the source","unit":"short tons of nutrient","geography":"US","publisher":"usda-agtransport-fertilizer-trade","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"4e731a05e6384016eb66c88f75008211ef85198c33e84808b8446002f917d248","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute)","licence":"No licence declared: dataset metadata reads license: null, useRestriction: \"n/a\", attribution \"U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute\"; \"Fertilizer commodity values are converted to nutrient-equivalent tons (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) using conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute.\" The institute's own site terms (https://www.tfi.org/terms-of-use/) reserve its content: \"for your personal, non-commercial use or internal business purpose only\". The dataset is not on the USDA list of non-copyrighted GTR datasets. Cited, not redistributed, until USDA states the terms.","licence_evidence_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue.json","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-13","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-dap-map-net-exports-p-st","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. exports minus U.S. imports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient; derived from the two series above (same file, same restriction)","unit":"short tons of nutrient","geography":"US","publisher":"usda-agtransport-fertilizer-trade","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"4e731a05e6384016eb66c88f75008211ef85198c33e84808b8446002f917d248","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":{"op":"diff","inputs":["us-dap-map-exports-p-st","us-dap-map-imports-p-st"]},"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute)","licence":"No licence declared: dataset metadata reads license: null, useRestriction: \"n/a\", attribution \"U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute\"; \"Fertilizer commodity values are converted to nutrient-equivalent tons (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) using conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute.\" The institute's own site terms (https://www.tfi.org/terms-of-use/) reserve its content: \"for your personal, non-commercial use or internal business purpose only\". The dataset is not on the USDA list of non-copyrighted GTR datasets. Cited, not redistributed, until USDA states the terms.","licence_evidence_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/tpd5-muue.json","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-13","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":31,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. sulfur consumption from domestic sources, calculated by USGS as shipments minus exports, Table 5 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, \"Sulfur in July 2026\" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits)","unit":"thousand metric tons","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-08","value":521},{"period":"2025-09","value":469},{"period":"2025-10","value":439},{"period":"2025-11","value":365},{"period":"2025-12","value":599},{"period":"2026-01","value":490},{"period":"2026-02","value":516},{"period":"2026-03","value":401},{"period":"2026-04","value":379},{"period":"2026-05","value":230},{"period":"2026-06","value":473},{"period":"2026-07","value":445}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":31,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Average f.a.s. unit value of U.S. sulfur exports: export value divided by export quantity, both from USGS Table 4; a customs unit value, not a quoted market or contract price","unit":"US dollars per metric ton","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":{"op":"ratio","inputs":["us-sulfur-exports-value-kusd","us-sulfur-exports-kt"]},"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-08","value":256.198347107438},{"period":"2025-09","value":263.7362637362637},{"period":"2025-10","value":262.72727272727275},{"period":"2025-11","value":356.42201834862385},{"period":"2025-12","value":318.3098591549296},{"period":"2026-01","value":427.81065088757396},{"period":"2026-02","value":502.1978021978022},{"period":"2026-03","value":351.15384615384613},{"period":"2026-04","value":536.480686695279},{"period":"2026-05","value":689.4977168949772},{"period":"2026-06","value":773.5849056603773},{"period":"2026-07","value":991.9028340080972}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":31,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-exports-kt","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. domestic exports of elemental sulfur, quantity, Table 4 (U.S. Census Bureau trade data as printed by USGS) (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, \"Sulfur in July 2026\" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits)","unit":"thousand metric tons","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-08","value":121},{"period":"2025-09","value":182},{"period":"2025-10","value":110},{"period":"2025-11","value":218},{"period":"2025-12","value":71},{"period":"2026-01","value":169},{"period":"2026-02","value":91},{"period":"2026-03","value":260},{"period":"2026-04","value":233},{"period":"2026-05","value":438},{"period":"2026-06","value":212},{"period":"2026-07","value":247}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":31,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-exports-value-kusd","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"U.S. domestic exports of elemental sulfur, declared free-alongside-ship value, Table 4 (U.S. Census Bureau trade data as printed by USGS) (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, \"Sulfur in July 2026\" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits)","unit":"thousand US dollars","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-08","value":31000},{"period":"2025-09","value":48000},{"period":"2025-10","value":28900},{"period":"2025-11","value":77700},{"period":"2025-12","value":22600},{"period":"2026-01","value":72300},{"period":"2026-02","value":45700},{"period":"2026-03","value":91300},{"period":"2026-04","value":125000},{"period":"2026-05","value":302000},{"period":"2026-06","value":164000},{"period":"2026-07","value":245000}]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-import-unit-value-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Average customs unit value of U.S. sulfur imports: import value divided by import quantity, both from USGS Table 2; a customs unit value, not a quoted market or contract price. Table 2 is headed \"Data adjusted by U.S. Geological Survey and Acuity Commodities\": a private firm takes part in the adjustment and its terms were not read, so the series is held RESTRICTED","unit":"US dollars per metric ton","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":{"op":"ratio","inputs":["us-sulfur-imports-value-kusd","us-sulfur-imports-kt"]},"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-imports-kt","family":"FLOW","variable":"U.S. imports for consumption of elemental sulfur, all countries, quantity, Table 2 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, \"Sulfur in July 2026\" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits). Table 2 is headed \"Data adjusted by U.S. Geological Survey and Acuity Commodities\": a private firm takes part in the adjustment and its terms were not read, so the series is held RESTRICTED","unit":"thousand metric tons","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-imports-value-kusd","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"U.S. imports for consumption of elemental sulfur, all countries, customs value, Table 2 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, \"Sulfur in July 2026\" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits). Table 2 is headed \"Data adjusted by U.S. Geological Survey and Acuity Commodities\": a private firm takes part in the adjustment and its terms were not read, so the series is held RESTRICTED","unit":"thousand US dollars","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":31,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-production-kt","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Recovered elemental sulfur produced in the United States, petroleum refineries plus natural gas plants, Table 1 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, \"Sulfur in July 2026\" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits)","unit":"thousand metric tons","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-08","value":645},{"period":"2025-09","value":653},{"period":"2025-10","value":549},{"period":"2025-11","value":590},{"period":"2025-12","value":675},{"period":"2026-01","value":661},{"period":"2026-02","value":593},{"period":"2026-03","value":675},{"period":"2026-04","value":601},{"period":"2026-05","value":674},{"period":"2026-06","value":678},{"period":"2026-07","value":686}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":31,"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","key":"us-sulfur-stocks-kt","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Producer stocks of sulfur in the United States at end of month, subject to inventory adjustments, Table 1 (USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, \"Sulfur in July 2026\" and seven earlier monthly issues; each month taken from the latest issue that prints it, revisions included; values rounded by USGS to three significant digits)","unit":"thousand metric tons","geography":"US","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","source_sha256":"e6ef7f23ac29d39287f7508f9ae0e6e5a876feadd30954a045b125cfc6302640","collected_at":"2026-11-13T11:50:40+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Geological Survey","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/information-policies-and-instructions/copyrights-and-credits","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-08","value":115},{"period":"2025-09","value":117},{"period":"2025-10","value":117},{"period":"2025-11","value":125},{"period":"2025-12","value":129},{"period":"2026-01","value":132},{"period":"2026-02","value":118},{"period":"2026-03","value":132},{"period":"2026-04","value":121},{"period":"2026-05","value":127},{"period":"2026-06","value":119},{"period":"2026-07","value":113}]}],"edition":{"title":"US phosphate: exports of sulfur and of DAP and MAP rise in 2026 while a producer curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; the direction is new, the export level is not","lead":"The Mosaic Company states on 3 November 2026 that it curtailed US phosphate production, citing limited affordable sulfur: 1,289 thousand tonnes in the third quarter against 1,677 a year earlier. The unit value of US sulfur exports went from 227 to 992 USD per tonne between July 2025 and July 2026, and US exports of DAP and MAP reached 1,363 thousand short tons of nutrient over January to September against 845. That export level is under every year from 2010 to 2020; what is new is exports rising while a producer curtails.","published_at":"2026-11-13","vectors":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-exports-kt","dap-usd-t"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-07","value":227.17948717948718},{"id":"F2","series":"us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":991.9028340080972},{"id":"F3","series":"us-sulfur-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2026-05","value":438},{"id":"F4","series":"us-sulfur-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2025-05","value":83},{"id":"F5","series":"us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","stat":"value","period":"2026-05","value":230},{"id":"F6","series":"us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","stat":"value","period":"2025-05","value":566},{"id":"F7","series":"dap-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-10","value":803.1},{"id":"F8","series":"dap-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-10","value":754},{"id":"F9","series":"dap-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":783.8},{"id":"F10","series":"il-dap-usd-st","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-30","value":932.14}],"watch":[{"indicator":"US exports of DAP and MAP, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file, read on 15 December 2026 (November alone on 15 January 2027)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue"},{"indicator":"Illinois distributor DAP ask, USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report, reports of 27 November and 11 December 2026, against 932.14 USD per short ton","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3195.pdf"},{"indicator":"Federal Register documents on phosphate fertilizers and the White House presidential-actions page: what follows Proclamation 11038, read on 1 and 8 March 2027","source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=%22phosphate+fertilizers%22"},{"indicator":"USGS monthly sulfur survey: exports and export unit value of August to October 2026, read on the first date from 29 January to 30 June 2027 on which the three issues are posted","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"october-exports-at-or-above-125000","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are at or above 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: the export level of the third quarter continues, at a level no October of 2022 to 2025 reached and ten of the twelve Octobers of 2010 to 2021 did. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","threshold":{"op":">=","value":125000}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: November 2026 alone divided by the October value printed, against 0.54 to 1.32, as of 15 January 2027","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"october-exports-between-105000-and-125000","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are above 105,000 and below 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: above the October record of 2022 to 2025 and under the level of the third quarter, neither continued nor reversed. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026, lower bound","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","threshold":{"op":">","value":105000}},{"name":"US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026, upper bound","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","threshold":{"op":"<","value":125000}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: November 2026 alone divided by the October value printed, against 0.54 to 1.32, as of 15 January 2027","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"october-exports-at-or-below-105000","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are at or below 105,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: inside the October record of 2022 to 2025; the third-quarter level does not continue. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":105000}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: November 2026 alone divided by the October value printed, against 0.54 to 1.32, as of 15 January 2027","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"text-raises-a-plant-rate","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"At least one text of The Mosaic Company states the restart of the idled Louisiana plant, a higher operating rate at a named curtailed US phosphate plant, or the end of the sulfur-related curtailments at the plants, and no text states a reduction. Production band read beside it: 1,345 to 1,504; a figure in the middle band with this branch true is recorded as a timing effect, a text dated late in the window raising only the last weeks of the quarter. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289).","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Company texts dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027 stating a restart, a higher operating rate or the end of the curtailments at a US phosphate plant, with no text stating a reduction","source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: phosphate segment production, first quarter 2027, thousand tonnes, first-quarter release, against 1,345 to 1,504","source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-05","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"no-text-on-plant-rates","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"No text of The Mosaic Company states a raise or a reduction of the operating rate of a US phosphate plant: the plants stay as described through 13 November 2026, whatever is restated about the mines. Production band read beside it: 1,206 to 1,344. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289).","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"HIGH","indicators":[{"name":"Company texts dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027 stating a raise or a reduction of the operating rate of a US phosphate plant","source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: phosphate segment production, first quarter 2027, thousand tonnes, first-quarter release, against 1,206 to 1,344","source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-05","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"text-reduces-a-running-plant","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"At least one text of The Mosaic Company states a lower operating rate, the idling or the closure of a US phosphate plant that was in operation on 13 November 2026; this branch takes precedence if texts of both kinds exist. Production band read beside it: 901 to 1,205; a figure in the middle band with this branch true is recorded as a timing effect, a reduction announced late in the window removing few tonnes in the quarter. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289).","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Company texts dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027 stating a lower operating rate, the idling or the closure of a US phosphate plant in operation on 13 November 2026","source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: phosphate segment production, first quarter 2027, thousand tonnes, first-quarter release, against 901 to 1,205","source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-05","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"duty-free-entry-permitted-beyond-the-window","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"At least one text permits duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco for three months or more beyond 28 February 2027, by prolonging Proclamation 11038 or by a new declaration, or extends it to other origins under the order on Russia. A text permits arrivals and does not compel them: a May-to-September sum under 33,000 with this branch true is the case 'window open, origin absent' and is recorded as such. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Federal Register, search 'phosphate fertilizers': number of presidential documents or Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that permit duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco for three months or more beyond 28 February 2027, or extend it to other origins; one text at either address meets the count","source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=%22phosphate+fertilizers%22","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"White House presidential actions: number of texts dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that permit duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco for three months or more beyond 28 February 2027, or extend it to other origins; one text at either address meets the count","source_url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order, phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, as of 15 November 2027, against 33,000 to 155,000","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-01","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"relief-narrowed-or-shortened","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"At least one text keeps a relief narrower than Proclamation 11038 beyond 28 February 2027 (duty-free importation permitted for less than three months, a quantity limit, or named shipments only), and no text permits entry for three months or more. No precedent of this kind was read for this order; the branch is kept because the Commerce notice of 8 July 2026 already works shipment by shipment. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Federal Register, search 'phosphate fertilizers': number of presidential documents or Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that keep a relief narrower than Proclamation 11038 beyond 28 February 2027, with no text permitting entry for three months or more; one text at either address meets the count","source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=%22phosphate+fertilizers%22","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"White House presidential actions: number of texts dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that keep a relief narrower than Proclamation 11038 beyond 28 February 2027, with no text permitting entry for three months or more; one text at either address meets the count","source_url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order, phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, as of 15 November 2027, against 0 to 62,000","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-01","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"no-text-window-lapses","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"No text permits duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco beyond 28 February 2027, in full or in a narrower form: the window ends on that date as written, or earlier if a text terminates the emergency, and the cash deposit applies again to shipments not approved before the end. The record under the order does not say which level of arrivals returns after a lapse: about 1,000 short tons over May to September 2025, the one year on file under the present deposit, and 25,000 to 31,000 in 2022 to 2024 under deposits of 19.97 then 2.12 percent. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Federal Register, search 'phosphate fertilizers': number of presidential documents or Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that permit duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco beyond 28 February 2027, in full or in a narrower form; one text at either address meets the count","source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=%22phosphate+fertilizers%22","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"White House presidential actions: number of texts dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that permit duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco beyond 28 February 2027, in full or in a narrower form; one text at either address meets the count","source_url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order, phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, as of 15 November 2027, against 0 to 32,000","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-01","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"export-unit-value-mean-at-or-above-700","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is at or above 700 USD per tonne: the level of the third-quarter 2026 Tampa contract (705 USD per long ton, 694 per tonne) held on average over seven months, which only June and July 2026 reached as single months. Residual read beside it: 2,530 to 2,934, from a second fall of the size of the first to the 2026 level. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Mean of the monthly US sulfur export unit values, January to July 2027, USD per tonne, latest USGS issue as of 30 November 2027","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":700}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: sulfur used from domestic sources (a residual), sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, against 2,530 to 2,934","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-11-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"export-unit-value-mean-between-300-and-700","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is above 300 and below 700 USD per tonne: under the mid-2026 level and above the level of late 2025; the fourth-quarter 2026 contract (615 USD per long ton, 605 per tonne) sits in this band, as do seven of the last twelve months. Residual read beside it: 2,935 to 3,337, between the 2026 and the 2025 levels. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Mean of the monthly US sulfur export unit values, January to July 2027, USD per tonne, latest USGS issue as of 30 November 2027, lower bound","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","threshold":{"op":">","value":300}},{"name":"Mean of the monthly US sulfur export unit values, January to July 2027, USD per tonne, latest USGS issue as of 30 November 2027, upper bound","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","threshold":{"op":"<","value":700}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: sulfur used from domestic sources (a residual), sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, against 2,935 to 3,337","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-11-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"export-unit-value-mean-at-or-below-300","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is at or below 300 USD per tonne: back to the level of the Tampa contract of October 2025 (310 USD per long ton, 305 per tonne), the highest since the second quarter of 2022. Residual read beside it: 3,338 to 3,413, from the 2025 level to the 2024 level; it can stay under this band if phosphate capacity was closed in the meantime, and the reading then says which. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Mean of the monthly US sulfur export unit values, January to July 2027, USD per tonne, latest USGS issue as of 30 November 2027","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":300}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: sulfur used from domestic sources (a residual), sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, against 3,338 to 3,413","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-11-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"domestic-shortfall-necessary-sign-october-exports-at-or-above-125000","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"Conjecture, not shown by a series: domestic buyers stepped back first (fall 2025; cutbacks planned for fall 2026 as reported in the press in July), tonnes were placed abroad from January 2026 and to India from May, and production was curtailed in May and July; if domestic buyers return for fall 2026 and spring 2027, as the seller states on 3 November 2026, the tonnes the curtailment removes are missing from the domestic market. The rival reading is that they do not return in full and nothing is missing (demand first). Necessary sign, stated so that it can fail: US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026, read in the USDA AgTransport trade file on 15 December 2026 (on 31 December if October is absent; absent then, void), are at or above 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient, a level no October of 2022 to 2025 reached and that ten of the twelve Octobers of 2010 to 2021 reached. The sign is necessary and does not discriminate: exports can stay high with a domestic market that is short of nothing. Falsifiers: October exports at or below 105,000; the Illinois ask at or under 932.14 in the reports of 27 November and 11 December 2026 with October exports at or above 125,000, which is the demand-first reading; the company reporting fourth-quarter phosphate sales at or above 1.5 million tonnes with North American demand named as the destination; the second US producer reporting fourth-quarter phosphate sales under its lowered guidance and repeating that customers defer.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-p-st","threshold":{"op":">=","value":125000}},{"name":"Read beside: Illinois distributor DAP ask, reports of 27 November and 11 December 2026, against 932.14 USD per short ton","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3195.pdf","series_key":"il-dap-usd-st","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"domestic-shortfall-discriminating-sign-illinois-ask-above-932-14","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"Conjecture, not shown by a series: domestic buyers stepped back first (fall 2025; cutbacks planned for fall 2026 as reported in the press in July), tonnes were placed abroad from January 2026 and to India from May, and production was curtailed in May and July; if domestic buyers return for fall 2026 and spring 2027, as the seller states on 3 November 2026, the tonnes the curtailment removes are missing from the domestic market. The rival reading is that they do not return in full and nothing is missing (demand first). Discriminating sign, weaker because it rests on one earlier point: the Illinois distributor ask for DAP in the USDA report nearest 11 December 2026 is above 932.14 USD per short ton, its value in the report of 30 October 2026, while the World Bank November average of DAP, published in the first days of December, stays under 827 USD per tonne (3 percent above October). An inland price that rises alone points to tonnes missing at home; a Gulf price that rises with it does not separate the two readings; an inland ask at or under 932.14 is the demand-first reading. No history of the Illinois ask was collected, so the usual size of its difference with the Gulf price is not known.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Illinois statewide distributor DAP ask, USD per short ton, USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report nearest 11 December 2026","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3195.pdf","series_key":"il-dap-usd-st","threshold":{"op":">","value":932.14}},{"name":"World Bank DAP, US Gulf, monthly average of November 2026, USD per tonne, published in the first days of December 2026","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","series_key":"dap-usd-t","threshold":{"op":"<","value":827}}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-11","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"sulfur-exports-august-to-october-2026-at-least-600-at-mean-unit-value-605","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"Conjecture on Gulf sulfur refining and marketing: as long as the value at export exceeds the quarterly Tampa contract by a wide margin, the share of US sulfur exported stays above its 2024 and 2025 level, and the fourth-quarter contract at 615 USD per long ton (605 USD per tonne) is the buyer's price for keeping tonnes at home. Necessary sign: in the USGS issues for August, September and October 2026, exports total at least 600 thousand tonnes over the three months (504 and 413 in the same months of 2024 and 2025; 897 in May to July 2026; the highest three-month sum before 2026 is 687) and the simple mean of the three monthly unit values is at or above 605 (three-month means on file reach that level only for April to June and May to July 2026). Reading rule: the sign is read on the first of these dates on which the three issues are on the USGS file store: 29 January, 26 February, 31 March, 30 April, 31 May, 30 June 2027; if they are not all posted on 30 June 2027 the reading is void. The dates follow the posting record, not the data cut-off: the same three months of 2025 were posted 110 to 136 days after their month, and the longest delay on file is 249 days. Falsifiers: exports at or below 504 thousand tonnes with a mean unit value still at or above 605; exports at or above 600 with a mean unit value under 605, in which case the tonnes leave for another reason than the price gap. The sign does not judge who gives up value: sellers of molten sulfur without a forming outlet have no export alternative, and no public figure of forming capacity was found.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"US sulfur exports, sum of August, September and October 2026, thousand tonnes, USGS monthly survey, first date from 29 January to 30 June 2027 on which the three issues are posted","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-exports-kt","threshold":{"op":">=","value":600}},{"name":"Simple mean of the US sulfur export unit values of August, September and October 2026, USD per tonne, same issues","source_url":"https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202607-sulfu.xlsx","series_key":"us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":605}}],"horizon_date":"2027-06-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"no-us-dap-map-to-india-december-2026-to-february-2027","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"Conjecture on India: the purchases that pulled US DAP from May 2026 are seasonal blocks by a state buyer; they stop when the rabi stock is covered and do not depend on the US producer's situation. The mechanism rests on press: the letters of intent of May 2026 and the compensation of importers are reported by a trade publication relaying a price reporter, and no Indian government text was found. Necessary sign: the USDA AgTransport trade file shows no US-origin DAP or MAP to India in each of December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027. Record: since 2022 the sign held in two winters of four and failed in two, each time on December; on the sixteen winters of the file from December 2010 it held in five and failed in eleven. It tests the company's sentence of 3 November 2026 that the rabi tonnes are 'expected to be depleted by year-end'. Reading rule: read on 15 April 2027; if February 2027 is absent, on 30 April 2027; absent then, void. Falsifiers: a US-origin row of DAP or MAP to India in any of the three months; a new block purchase by the Indian state buyer announced before 31 January 2027 with United States among the origins, reported with its text. India took 42 percent of the January to September 2026 rise in US exports; the other 58 percent does not depend on it. Not tested: whether purchases resume in the next season, May to September 2027.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Number of months among December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027 with a US-origin row of DAP or MAP to India, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 April 2027","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":"us-dap-map-exports-india-p-st","threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}}],"horizon_date":"2027-04-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"moroccan-phosphate-above-10000-in-two-months-october-2026-to-february-2027","signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","statement":"Conjecture on the import side: the duty-free window is the instrument the government chose on the ground it states, that US production 'is insufficient to support domestic agricultural food production after accounting for exports' (Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026). Necessary sign, on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (DAP; MAP and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), Moroccan origin, phosphorus nutrient short tons, read at the source: at least two of the five months from October 2026 to February 2027 are above 10,000, a cargo-sized month. Record: eleven such months under the order of 7 April 2021 before the window, and none of the five October-to-February periods under the order has two. Reading rule: 15 April 2027; if February 2027 is absent, 30 April 2027; absent then, void. If the sign fails, the window was open and the origin did not come in those months: the binding constraint is then elsewhere than the duty (price asked, freight, the origin's own commitments, or the season). If it holds, it shows use of the window, not its cause: arrivals of this size also occurred under the order in 2022 to 2024 with a deposit collected. Falsifiers: fewer than two such months; a text terminating the emergency before 28 February 2027.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Number of months from October 2026 to February 2027 with Moroccan-origin imports above 10,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient on the four product lines of the order, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 April 2027","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/tpd5-muue","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":2}}],"horizon_date":"2027-04-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"the-mosaic-company","name":"The Mosaic Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325312 Phosphatic fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://www.mosaicco.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000139/pressreleaseq32026-ex991.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Sales volumes for the third quarter were 1.4 million tonnes, compared to 1.6 million in the same period last year, reflecting production curtailments implemented as a result of limited affordable sulfur availability."},"reasoning":"The company's own third-quarter release ties lower phosphate volumes to curtailments for lack of affordable sulfur, and gives 715 USD per long ton for the quarter and a fourth-quarter contract with U.S. Gulf Coast refiners at 615. Inferred: the rise in US DAP and MAP exports over the same months is largely this producer's product leaving through Tampa, since its 10-K puts it at about 72 % of North American concentrated phosphate output. The release does not break out export tonnage by destination.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","us-dap-map-exports-p-st","tampa-dap-map-exports-p-st"]}]},{"slug":"nutrien","name":"Nutrien Ltd.","country":"CA","sector":"NAICS 325312 Phosphatic fertilizer manufacturing; NAICS 424910 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.nutrien.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725964/000119312526447554/d139721dex992.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Phosphate adjusted EBITDA decreased in the third quarter and first nine months of 2026 due to higher sulfur input costs, partially offset by higher global benchmarks compared to the same periods of 2025."},"reasoning":"The third-quarter 2026 report shows the sulfur cost passing into the phosphate segment (adjusted EBITDA 8 million USD against 122 million, P2O5 operating rate 80 % against 88 %). The same report lowers Retail guidance on crop nutrient margins, so the company sits on the producer side and the farm-retail side at once. Inferred: its US phosphate plants face the same Tampa-linked sulfur terms as the Florida producers; the report does not name its sulfur suppliers.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","dap-usd-t","il-dap-usd-st"]}]},{"slug":"j-r-simplot-company","name":"J.R. Simplot Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325312 Phosphatic fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://www.simplot.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20260317-u-s-farm-groups-press-mosaic-and-simplot-to-drop-support-for-phosphate-import-duties/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"A coalition of 64 U.S. agricultural organizations is urging fertilizer producers The Mosaic Company and J.R. Simplot Company to withdraw their support for duties on phosphate fertilizers imported from Morocco, arguing the measures are contributing to high costs for American farmers."},"reasoning":"The quote places the company on the import side of the chain: a US phosphate producer that backed the duties on Moroccan product, suspended on 29 June 2026. Its own site shows phosphate fertilizer plants at Pocatello, Idaho, and Rock Springs, Wyoming. Not shown: its sulfur cost or any 2026 curtailment; as a private company it publishes no results, so the sulfur exposure is inferred from the process alone.","series_keys":["us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st","us-dap-map-imports-p-st","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"itafos","name":"Itafos Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325312 Phosphatic fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://itafos.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://itafos.com/news/2026/itafos-reports-q3-2026-financial-results-and-operational-highlights/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"The decrease in the Company’s Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA compared to Q3 2025 was primarily due to materially higher sulfur and sulfuric acid costs at Conda and Arraias, which were partially offset by higher revenues."},"reasoning":"The third-quarter release attributes the fall in earnings to sulfur and sulfuric acid costs at its Conda, Idaho, phosphate plant and cites the Tampa sulfur contract at 705 USD in the third quarter and 615 in the fourth. Unlike the Florida producer it reports running Conda near nameplate capacity, so the exposure shown is margin, not volume. Inferred: a western producer still running gains domestic share while Florida and Louisiana output is curtailed; the release does not say so.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"martin-midstream-partners","name":"Martin Midstream Partners L.P.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424690 Other chemical and allied products merchant wholesalers; NAICS 493190 Other warehousing and storage","website":"https://www.mmlp.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1176334/000117633426000035/mmlp-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Products revenues increased $28.8 million, reflecting a $23.8 million increase from an 83% rise in average sulfur products sales prices, combined with a $5.0 million increase from a 9% rise in sales volumes, comprising a 16% increase in sulfur volumes and a 14% decrease in fertilizer volumes."},"reasoning":"The third-quarter 10-Q shows sulfur sales prices up 83 % and sulfur volumes up 16 % in the partnership's sulfur services segment; its 10-K describes buying molten sulfur from Gulf Coast refineries and forming it into prills at Beaumont, Texas, the step that makes Gulf sulfur exportable. Inferred: part of the rise in US sulfur exports passes through this forming capacity; the filing does not give export tonnage or destinations. The same filing reports its sulfur-based fertilizer volumes down on farmer affordability.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-exports-kt","us-sulfur-production-kt"]}]},{"slug":"valero-energy","name":"Valero Energy Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.valero.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026066795/a9302026exh9901earningsrel.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Primarily includes petrochemicals, gas oils, No. 6 fuel oil, petroleum coke, sulfur, and asphalt."},"reasoning":"The third-quarter 2026 release lists sulfur among the refiner's other products, and the company runs several Gulf Coast refineries, the region the producer's release names as its sulfur source. Inferred: recovered sulfur sold at 2026 prices, at home or for export, earns more than a year earlier. Not shown: sulfur volumes, prices received, the split between domestic and export sales, or whether this refiner is party to the Tampa contract.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-exports-kt","us-sulfur-production-kt"]}]},{"slug":"marathon-petroleum","name":"Marathon Petroleum Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.marathonpetroleum.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1510295/000151029526000009/mpc-20251231.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Our refineries include crude oil atmospheric and vacuum distillation, fluid catalytic cracking, hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, coking, desulfurization and sulfur recovery units."},"reasoning":"The 10-K shows sulfur recovery units across the refining system, which includes large Gulf Coast plants in Louisiana and Texas. Inferred: the recovered sulfur is a by-product whose value rose with the export unit value in 2026. Not shown: any sulfur revenue line, customer, or export; the filing does not mention sulfur as a product sold.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-production-kt"]}]},{"slug":"pbf-energy","name":"PBF Energy Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.pbfenergy.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1534504/000153450426000010/pbf-20251231.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"as a result of the significant portion of heavy, sour crude slate processed at Chalmette, we produce lower-value products including sulfur and petroleum coke."},"reasoning":"The 10-K states that the Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery produces sulfur as a low-value product, in the state where the phosphate plants idled in 2026 are served by truck from nearby refineries. Inferred: that sulfur was worth several times more in 2026 than when the filing was written. Not shown: buyers, volumes, or whether Chalmette sulfur moves to fertilizer plants or to export.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-production-kt","us-sulfur-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"savage-companies","name":"Savage Companies","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488999 All other support activities for transportation","website":"https://savageco.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://savageco.com/services/production-byproducts-offtake/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Savage safely moves molten sulphur from refineries to chemical plants so it can be further processed for additional uses, such as sulfuric acid."},"reasoning":"The company's service page shows it carrying molten sulphur from refineries to acid plants; a chamber of commerce listing describes its Gulf Sulphur Services unit at Galveston as the largest liquid-sulphur transport and storage system in the country. Inferred: fewer tons delivered to curtailed phosphate plants mean less molten sulphur to move for fertilizer use, while handling for export may rise. Not shown: 2026 volumes or contracts.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","us-sulfur-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"occidental-petroleum","name":"Occidental Petroleum Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 211120 Crude petroleum extraction; NAICS 211130 Natural gas extraction","website":"https://www.oxy.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000162828026072198/oxy-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Excluding the impact of items affecting comparability, third quarter results decreased due to lower gas margins due to the narrowing of the Waha-to-Gulf-Coast gas spreads in the third quarter and lower crude margins related to the timing impact of crude sales, partially offset by higher sulfur volumes and prices at Al Hosn."},"reasoning":"The 10-Q credits higher sulfur volumes and prices at the Al Hosn sour gas venture in the United Arab Emirates for part of midstream earnings. This is the seller's side of the same world price that the US export unit value follows, outside the United States. Inferred: no link to Tampa or to US sulfur exports; the gain comes from Middle East sulfur, not from the US chain.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"ecovyst","name":"Ecovyst Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325180 Other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing","website":"https://www.ecovyst.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1708035/000170803526000106/ex991-ecvt3q26earningsrele.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Average selling prices were higher primarily due to the pass-through effect of higher sulfur costs of approximately $67 million and favorable contractual pricing for regenerated sulfuric acid."},"reasoning":"The third-quarter release shows a sulfuric acid maker passing about 67 million USD of higher sulfur cost to customers in one quarter, and warns that a sharp fall in sulfur could bring customer destocking. It buys the same US sulfur the phosphate producers buy. Inferred: its margin is protected by pass-through, so the exposure is to volume and working capital; the release does not give its sulfur sources.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt"]}]},{"slug":"advansix","name":"AdvanSix Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325199 All other basic organic chemical manufacturing; NAICS 325311 Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://www.advansix.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673985/000167398526000061/asix-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Other important raw materials used in our manufacturing process are natural gas and sulfur, which are used to produce caprolactam and ammonium sulfate."},"reasoning":"The 10-Q names sulfur as a key raw material at Hopewell, Virginia, settled quarterly, with only part of the exposure passed through to customers. Inferred: its sulfur cost rose with the 2026 quarterly settlements while its ammonium sulfate is sold at freely negotiated prices. Not shown in the passage read: the size of the 2026 cost increase.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt"]}]},{"slug":"tronox","name":"Tronox Holdings plc","country":"GB","sector":"NAICS 325130 Synthetic dye and pigment manufacturing","website":"https://www.tronox.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1530804/000114036126042049/ef20084959_99-1.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"approximately $15-20 million of higher than expected input costs, primarily from natural gas, sulfur, and sulfuric acid"},"reasoning":"The third-quarter release counts sulfur and sulfuric acid among the inputs that cut its outlook by 15 to 20 million USD. It shows a buyer outside fertilizer paying the same sulfur price. Inferred: its plants compete with phosphate producers for sulfur and acid; the release does not say where it buys or how much comes from the United States.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"freeport-mcmoran","name":"Freeport-McMoRan Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 212230 Copper, nickel, lead, and zinc mining","website":"https://www.fcx.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831259/000083125926000051/fcx-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Sulfuric acid production from our smelters in the U.S., Spain and Indonesia, together with our sulfur burner plant at the Safford mine, generally exceeds the requirements of our SX/EW leaching operations."},"reasoning":"The 10-Q shows a domestic sulfur burner at Safford, Arizona, and smelter acid that exceeds the company's own leaching needs, and states that acid price swings are not material to its results. Inferred: it buys some sulfur in the same market and sells surplus acid into a short one, so effects partly offset. Not shown: sulfur purchases or acid sales to fertilizer makers.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt"]}]},{"slug":"kennecott-utah-copper","name":"Kennecott Utah Copper LLC (Rio Tinto)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 212230 Copper, nickel, lead, and zinc mining; NAICS 331410 Nonferrous metal smelting and refining","website":"https://www.riotinto.com/en/operations/us/kennecott","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://itafos.com/news/2026/itafos-and-rio-tinto-amend-sulfuric-acid-contract-to-further-support-american-farming/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Pursuant to the amended Sulfuric Acid Supply Agreement, Itafos will continue to purchase sulfuric acid from the Kennecott mine in Utah."},"reasoning":"The May 2026 release shows smelter acid from Utah supplying about 60 % of the acid needs of the Conda phosphate plant, under a contract whose reference index was changed in 2026 because of sulfur volatility. It is a route to phosphoric acid that does not pass through elemental sulfur bought at Tampa terms. Inferred: such acid is worth more when sulfur is scarce; the release gives no price.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"cf-industries","name":"CF Industries Holdings, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325311 Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://www.cfindustries.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000025/cf-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"a decline in global import demand for ammonia driven by phosphate production curtailments, in response to limited sulfur availability from the Middle East (which accounts for about half of globally traded sulfur supply), an input in the phosphoric acid production process"},"reasoning":"The 10-Q names phosphate curtailments for lack of sulfur as a cause of weaker ammonia demand, and reports nine-month ammonia sales volume down 11 % partly on lower demand from customers who make phosphate fertilizers. The link shown is from curtailed phosphate output back to an ammonia seller. Inferred: the US phosphate producers are among those customers; the filing does not name them.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","us-dap-map-exports-p-st"]}]},{"slug":"lsb-industries","name":"LSB Industries, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325311 Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://lsbindustries.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60714/000119312526437807/lxu-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Ammonia prices remain elevated relative to historical averages, although they have moderated from first-half highs, due in part to reduced ammonia demand from phosphate producers affected by constrained sulfur supply."},"reasoning":"The 10-Q attributes part of the easing in ammonia prices to phosphate producers buying less because of sulfur. It reports its ammonia prices against the Tampa benchmark, the same delivery point as the sulfur contract. Inferred: a price effect on its sales, not a direct supply contract with the phosphate plants; none is shown.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt"]}]},{"slug":"ocp-group","name":"OCP S.A. (OCP Group)","country":"MA","sector":"NACE C20.15 Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds; B08.91 Mining of chemical and fertiliser minerals","website":"https://www.ocpgroup.ma/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://telquel.ma/2026/09/11/ocp-group-revenue-falls-7-as-phosphate-market-tightens_2005107","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"The U.S. government suspended the application of these duties on June 29, 2026, allowing OCP North America to ship its first cargo since the suspension: 54,000 metric tons of Triple Super Phosphate"},"reasoning":"The article reports the first Moroccan cargo to the United States after the duty suspension, arriving at New Orleans on 19 August 2026; the trade file shows DAP and MAP imports from Morocco appearing in September. The group is also a large sulfur importer whose first-half results cite the sulfur price. Inferred: it competes for US sulfur cargoes (trade press reports Gulf shipments to North Africa for fertilizer production) while selling phosphate into the US market; no source read names it as the buyer of those cargoes.","series_keys":["us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st","us-dap-map-imports-p-st","tsp-usd-t","us-sulfur-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"koch-fertilizer","name":"Koch Fertilizer, LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325311 Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing; NAICS 424910 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers","website":"https://kochfertilizer.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://kochfertilizer.com/newsroom/koch-ag-energy-solutions-to-acquire-50-percent-stake-in-jfc-iii-from-ocp","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"JFC III’s production will be marketed by OCP and Koch Fertilizer, LLC. Additionally, the companies will collaborate on the supply of ammonia and sulfur to OCP and leverage their logistical capabilities for the shipment of fertilizers from Morocco."},"reasoning":"The 2022 release shows a US distributor with a half interest in a Moroccan phosphate plant, marketing rights on its output and a stated role in supplying sulfur to Morocco. Inferred: with the duties suspended since 29 June 2026 it can bring that product into the US market while domestic output is curtailed. Not shown: any 2026 cargo, import tonnage or sulfur shipment by this company; the evidence is four years old.","series_keys":["us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st","us-dap-map-imports-p-st","il-dap-usd-st"]}]},{"slug":"maaden","name":"Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden)","country":"SA","sector":"NACE C20.15 Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds; B07.29 Mining of other non-ferrous metal ores","website":"https://www.maaden.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.worldfertilizer.com/phosphates/21082026/maaden-exports-dap-via-oman/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Maaden trimmed its 2026 phosphate production guidance to the equivalent of 6 million - 6.5 million t of DAP in its latest quarterly results, citing a lack of sulphur and high logistical costs."},"reasoning":"The article shows the Saudi producer cutting DAP guidance for lack of sulphur and routing a cargo to India through Oman. It is a usual supplier of India, where US DAP and MAP appear in 2026 after two years of none. Inferred: its shortfall is one reason Indian buyers took US product; the source does not make that link. The US producer also holds shares in this company, per its filings.","series_keys":["us-dap-map-exports-india-p-st","us-dap-map-exports-p-st","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"phosagro","name":"PJSC PhosAgro","country":"RU","sector":"NACE C20.15 Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds","website":"https://www.phosagro.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285785/000128578526000017/mos-20251231.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"DOC calculated subsidy rates of 16.60% for OCP and 18.21% for PhosAgro."},"reasoning":"The US producer's 10-K shows this Russian producer under a US countervailing duty on phosphate fertilizers; the suspension reported in June 2026 concerns Moroccan product. Inferred: it stays largely outside the US market while a Moroccan competitor returns, and competes in India and Brazil where US product is now sold. Not shown: its 2026 shipments or sulfur position.","series_keys":["us-dap-map-imports-p-st","us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st","us-dap-map-exports-india-p-st"]}]},{"slug":"icl-group","name":"ICL Group Ltd.","country":"IL","sector":"NACE C20.15 Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds; B08.91 Mining of chemical and fertiliser minerals","website":"https://www.icl-group.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/941221/000117891326005126/zk2636351.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"In the US, elevated sulphur costs and weak autumn application expectations led to production cuts early in the quarter."},"reasoning":"The third-quarter report of this phosphate producer describes the US cuts and records the higher cost of sulphur as a negative item in its own results analysis; it also notes that the duty suspension raised US imports from Morocco. It shows a competitor reading the same chain from outside. Inferred: it competes with US product in Brazil and India under the same sulphur cost; the report does not quantify any effect of the US curtailments on its sales.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"indian-potash-limited","name":"Indian Potash Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NACE G46.75 Wholesale of chemical products","website":"https://www.indianpotash.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20260518-ipl-finalizes-1-346mt-dap-purchase-from-14-global-suppliers-at-930-935-t-cfr/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"India Potash Limited (IPL), has issued letters of intent to 14 global suppliers covering 1.3465 million tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP), securing the country’s near-term phosphate supply at $930–935 per tonne cost and freight (CFR)."},"reasoning":"The article reports the May 2026 tender in which the Indian importer bought DAP from 14 suppliers, two of them with allocations marked as US origin. The trade file shows US DAP and MAP to India from May 2026 after none from January 2024 to November 2025. Inferred: this tender is the opening of that flow; the article relays a trade press report and the importer's own documents were not read.","series_keys":["us-dap-map-exports-india-p-st","us-dap-map-exports-p-st","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"indagro","name":"Indagro","country":"CH","sector":"NACE G46.75 Wholesale of chemical products","website":"https://www.indagro.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20260518-ipl-finalizes-1-346mt-dap-purchase-from-14-global-suppliers-at-930-935-t-cfr/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"East coast allotments included volumes from Indagro (40,000t, U.S. origin), Ameropa (15,000t, Korean origin), Samsung (50,000t), Sun International (40,000t, U.S.), Ma’aden (60,000t, Saudi Arabia)"},"reasoning":"The tender report lists this Geneva trader with a 40,000-tonne allocation of US-origin DAP for India's east coast; its own site describes buying, loading and delivering fertilizers and their raw materials. Inferred: it is one of the intermediaries carrying US phosphate to India in 2026. Not shown: the US seller, the loading port or whether the cargo was delivered.","series_keys":["us-dap-map-exports-india-p-st","us-dap-map-exports-p-st","tampa-dap-map-exports-p-st"]}]},{"slug":"coromandel-international","name":"Coromandel International Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NACE C20.15 Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds","website":"https://www.coromandel.biz/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.global-agriculture.com/crop-nutrition/coromandel-international-reports-6-revenue-growth-in-q2-fy27/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"The company attributed the decline in profitability primarily to margin pressure in the fertiliser business, following an increase in raw material costs amid the ongoing Middle East crisis."},"reasoning":"The article on the quarter to 30 September 2026 shows an Indian phosphatic fertilizer maker squeezed by raw material costs, with a new sulphuric acid plant used to manage supply disruptions. Inferred: Indian makers under the same sulphur and acid costs produce less at home, which is one reason India imported finished DAP from new origins including the United States. Not shown: any purchase of US product or US sulfur by this company.","series_keys":["us-dap-map-exports-india-p-st","us-sulfur-export-unit-value-usd-t","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"chs","name":"CHS Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424910 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers; NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.chsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823277/000082327726000039/chscp-20260831.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit corridor for crude oil, gasoline and other energy products, as well as commodities such as ammonia and sulfur, have affected, and could continue to affect, the availability and prices of products we buy and sell."},"reasoning":"The 10-K for the year to 31 August 2026 names sulfur among the commodities whose disruption affects what the cooperative buys and sells; its wholesale crop nutrients business supplies phosphates to member cooperatives and retailers. It also runs two refineries on high-sulfur crude, so it stands on the sulfur-producing side as well. Inferred: its phosphate purchase cost for spring 2027 follows the curtailed domestic supply; the filing gives no phosphate figure.","series_keys":["il-dap-usd-st","dap-usd-t","us-dap-map-imports-p-st","us-sulfur-production-kt"]}]},{"slug":"cobank","name":"CoBank, ACB","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 522299 International, secondary market, and all other nondepository credit intermediation","website":"https://www.cobank.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cobank.com/knowledge-exchange/why-higher-fertilizer-prices-are-here-to-stay","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"That makes this a longer-duration risk for U.S. agricultural retailers, who must secure enough supply for farmers without overcommitting to high-priced inventory if demand weakens."},"reasoning":"The bank's August 2026 report states the inventory risk for farm retailers and names ammonia and sulfur as the two largest variable costs of phosphate production. Inferred: as a lender to farm cooperatives it carries the financing of that inventory through the winter; the report does not state its own loan exposure.","series_keys":["il-dap-usd-st","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"national-corn-growers-association","name":"National Corn Growers Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ncga.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20260317-u-s-farm-groups-press-mosaic-and-simplot-to-drop-support-for-phosphate-import-duties/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"The letter was signed by a broad group of farm and commodity organizations, including the National Corn Growers Association, American Farm Bureau Federation and American Soybean Association, along with dozens of state-level producer groups."},"reasoning":"The article reports the March 2026 letter in which the association asked the two US producers to drop support for the duties on Moroccan phosphate, on grounds of farm input cost. It represents the buyers at the end of the chain. Inferred: its members pay the distributor price the Illinois report records; the letter predates the curtailments of the third quarter and does not mention sulfur.","series_keys":["il-dap-usd-st","us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st","dap-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"american-farm-bureau-federation","name":"American Farm Bureau Federation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.fb.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/trump-temporarily-lifts-moroccan-phosphate-duties-ag-groups-welcome-fertilizer-relief/","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"The American Soybean Association and National Cotton Council have said they’re supportive, along with the American Farm Bureau Federation saying the decision to suspend tariffs, along with a recent request for emergency economic aid for farmers, are common-sense steps that will bring relief to farmers when they need it most."},"reasoning":"The article records the federation's support for the suspension of duties on Moroccan phosphate on 29 June 2026. It speaks for farm buyers of phosphate across crops. Inferred: the relief it expects depends on imports replacing curtailed domestic output before spring; the article does not address sulfur or the export of US product.","series_keys":["il-dap-usd-st","us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st","us-dap-map-imports-p-st"]}]},{"slug":"illinois-corn-growers-association","name":"Illinois Corn Growers Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ilcorn.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ilcorn.org/icga-continues-to-advocate-for-lower-fertilizer-costs","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"The IL Corn Growers Association (ICGA) continues to support policies that increase competition in the fertilizer marketplace and provide farmers with more purchasing options."},"reasoning":"The association's July 2026 note follows the duty suspension and the Commerce Department's preliminary recommendation to continue the duties in the sunset review. It represents growers in the state whose distributor DAP price is the last link of this signal. Inferred: Illinois buyers face the 932 USD per short ton recorded on 30 October; the note gives no price and does not mention sulfur.","series_keys":["il-dap-usd-st","us-dap-map-imports-morocco-p-st"]}]},{"slug":"csx-corporation","name":"CSX Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.csx.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794826000040/csx-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"Fertilizers - Shipments decreased as higher input costs led to reduced fertilizer demand."},"reasoning":"The third-quarter 10-Q reports lower fertilizer shipments on higher input costs, and the phosphate producer's 10-K names this railroad as the rail carrier serving its Florida mines. Inferred: curtailed Florida output means fewer phosphate rock and fertilizer carloads in central Florida; the filing does not separate phosphate from other fertilizers or name sulfur.","series_keys":["us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt","us-dap-map-exports-p-st","tampa-dap-map-exports-p-st"]}]},{"slug":"port-tampa-bay","name":"Port Tampa Bay (Tampa Port Authority)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://www.porttb.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mosaic-sulfur-curtailment-us-phosphate-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.porttb.com/?p=1052","date":"2026-11-13","quote":"It still helps grow the crops that feed the world, and some 150 years later, remains a cornerstone of port export activity."},"reasoning":"The port's own overview calls phosphate fertilizer a cornerstone of its exports and itself a major fertilizer exporting port; molten sulfur for the Florida plants also arrives through Tampa. Inferred: in 2026 the two cargoes move in opposite directions, with DAP and MAP exports through the Tampa district up while sulfur deliveries to curtailed plants fall. Not shown: any 2026 tonnage published by the port.","series_keys":["tampa-dap-map-exports-p-st","us-dap-map-exports-p-st","us-sulfur-domestic-consumption-kt"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"The Mosaic Company states on 3 November 2026 that it curtailed US phosphate production for lack of affordable sulfur and that two mines are curtailed further in the fourth quarter. US exports of sulfur and of DAP and MAP are above their 2025 level over the same months, and a third of the phosphate rise dates from January to April, before the first curtailment of May. The level of these exports is not new: in the publisher's trade file, which starts in January 2010, the nine-month total of 2026 is under that of every year from 2010 to 2020 and is reached from 2025, the lowest year of the file. What is new is the direction: exports rise in the quarters in which the company curtails. Before the spring 2027 application, a US farm retailer or grower decides when to cover phosphate, the company decides in its texts of the winter whether the operating rates of its US plants are raised, kept or lowered, and the US government decides by 28 February 2027 what follows the duty-free window for Moroccan phosphate: which public series, on which date, tells each of them whether the tonnes removed are missing from the domestic market or from the export market, whether domestic buyers stepped back before the tonnes were sold abroad, and at what value US sulfur keeps leaving the country?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Mosaic Phosphate segment, sales volumes, third quarter 2026","value":1.4,"unit":"million tonnes of finished product","kind":"SUPPLY","source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/files/content_files/Press-Release-Q3-2026-Exhibit-99-1-Final.pdf","source_date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Sales volumes for the third quarter were 1.4 million tonnes, compared to 1.6 million in the same period last year, reflecting production curtailments implemented as a result of limited affordable sulfur availability.","note":"The Mosaic Company, third-quarter 2026 release, Exhibit 99.1, dated 3 November 2026; file opened on 13 November 2026. This sentence is the trigger of the dossier: a dated statement by the company, with its scope (the Phosphate segment) and its stated reason. The figure is rounded to one decimal."},{"id":"K2","name":"Mosaic Phosphate segment, sales volumes, third quarter 2025","value":1.6,"unit":"million tonnes of finished product","kind":"SUPPLY","source_url":"https://investors.mosaicco.com/files/content_files/Press-Release-Q3-2026-Exhibit-99-1-Final.pdf","source_date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Sales Volumes - million tonnes* 1.4 1.4 1.6","note":"The Mosaic Company, third-quarter 2026 release, Exhibit 99.1, dated 3 November 2026; file opened on 13 November 2026. Table row: third quarter 2026, second quarter 2026, third quarter 2025."}],"constants_total":57,"constraints_total":15,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Value of US sulfur at export (unit value, USGS)","to":"More US sulfur exported; whether less was used at home is not measured","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L2","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Cost of sulfur under the quarterly Gulf contract (522, then 705, then 615 USD per long ton)","to":"Curtailment of the company's US phosphate production","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L3","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Curtailment of the largest US phosphate producer","to":"Fewer US exports of DAP and MAP (the direct expectation)","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L4","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Reduced output and finished stocks sold where the buyer pays more","to":"Less phosphate left for the domestic market before spring","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L5","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Indian state purchasing in blocks before a season, losses of importers compensated","to":"US-origin DAP shipped to India from May 2026","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L6","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Proclamation 11038 and Commerce's notice of 8 July 2026 (duty-free entry on request)","to":"Arrivals of Moroccan phosphate in the United States","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Export pull and curtailed output","to":"US Gulf DAP price (World Bank series)","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L8","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"US Gulf DAP price","to":"Price asked by Illinois distributors before spring","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L9","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Price asked and expected availability","to":"When US distributors and growers cover phosphate for spring 2027","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L10","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Fourth-quarter sulfur contract at 615 USD per long ton and DAP at 820 to 840 at the plant","to":"The company's next decision on its curtailments","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L11","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Stated insufficiency of domestic supply after exports","to":"Government measures on the import side, duties kept","status":"CONSISTENT"}],"alternatives_total":6,"conjectures_total":4,"trajectories_total":4,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-13","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":4},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-13","constants":57,"constraints":15,"links":11,"untested":5,"contradicted":1,"alternatives":6,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":4}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. Premium emails send the latest analysis when you join and each new one after publication; their links last seven days and need a current subscription. Files you downloaded stay yours within each source licence; downloads and API access stop when the subscription ends"}}}