SIGNAL · Supply shock · 2026-11-03

US phosphate: Mosaic curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; US sulfur and phosphate exports are up in 2026

Accepted

The Mosaic Company's third-quarter release of 3 November 2026 puts phosphate sales volumes at 1.4 million tonnes against 1.6 million a year earlier, "reflecting production curtailments implemented as a result of limited affordable sulfur availability", with third-quarter sulfur at 715 USD per long ton and a fourth-quarter contract at 615. The USGS monthly sulfur survey, last month July 2026, shows US recovered sulfur production of 4,568 thousand tonnes over January–July 2026 against 4,390 a year earlier, exports of 1,650 against 1,052, and sulfur used from domestic sources (a residual: shipments less exports) of 2,934 against 3,338, the gap being for the most part the month of May; the average export unit value rose from 227 USD per tonne in July 2025 to 992 in July 2026. US exports of DAP and MAP, in phosphorus nutrient tons (USDA AgTransport, series restricted), reached 1,363 thousand short tons over January–September 2026 against 845 a year earlier (the lowest year of a file that starts in 2010; every year from 2010 to 2020 was above the 2026 total), with India absent over January–September 2025 and at 217 over the same months of 2026. The World Bank DAP benchmark stood at 803.1 USD per tonne in October 2026 against 754.0 in October 2025 and 627.5 in December 2025. The sulfur survey stops at July 2026 and the trade file at September 2026 (read on 13 November 2026).

Geography: Florida (phosphate mining and fertilizer production, Tampa customs district) / Louisiana (idled phosphate fertilizer production; Gulf Coast refinery sulfur) / Illinois (distributor price of DAP before spring application). The report that started this signal → Edition: US phosphate: exports of sulfur and of DAP and MAP rise in 2026 while a producer curtails, citing limited affordable sulfur; the direction is new, the export level is not. Dossier: reviewed on 2026-11-13.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: SEC EDGAR full-text search (Registry search of filings from January to 13 November 2026 for sulfur, sulphur, Tampa, phosphate and curtailment: about 130 filings in the last four weeks screened; filings of about 25 registrants read and 16 retained (producers, refiners, sulfur handlers, acid makers, ammonia sellers, railroad, cooperative).); Indian Potash Limited DAP tender of May 2026, allocation list (Argus Media as relayed by Fertilizer Daily) (14 suppliers with tonnage and origin, two allocations marked US origin; used for the buyers and intermediaries of US phosphate in India.); Letter of 64 US agricultural organisations of 13 March 2026 on phosphate duties (as reported by Fertilizer Daily) (Names the two US producers addressed and the national signatories; only organisation names used. The letter itself was not found at a primary address.); Congressional Research Service, Fertilizer Transportation: In Brief (R49337) (Official description of the chain: Gulf refinery sulfur by Jones Act tanker to Tampa, short-haul phosphate rail in central Florida, Tampa as leading export gateway.); USGS Mineral Industry Surveys, Sulfur in July 2026 (Recovered sulfur by PAD district and source (petroleum, natural gas); names no company and no export destination, so refiners and gas processors were identified from filings instead.); The Mosaic Company, annual report on Form 10-K for 2025 (Counterparties named by the producer: sulfur from North American oil and gas refiners, rail carrier, Moroccan and Russian producers under countervailing duty orders.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-12-15. US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are at or above 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: the export level of the third quarter continues, at a level no October of 2022 to 2025 reached and ten of the twelve Octobers of 2010 to 2021 did. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. Indicators: US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026; Read beside, not defining the branch: November 2026 alone divided by the October value printed, against 0.54 to 1.32, as of 15 January 2027.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2026-12-15. US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are above 105,000 and below 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: above the October record of 2022 to 2025 and under the level of the third quarter, neither continued nor reversed. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. Indicators: US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026, lower bound; US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026, upper bound; Read beside, not defining the branch: November 2026 alone divided by the October value printed, against 0.54 to 1.32, as of 15 January 2027.

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-12-15. US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026 are at or below 105,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient: inside the October record of 2022 to 2025; the third-quarter level does not continue. Reading rule: the value of October 2026, all districts and destinations, domestic merchandise and re-exports together as the file adds them, as it stands in the USDA AgTransport fertiliser trade file (dataset tpd5-muue, a restricted series, read at the source) on Tuesday 15 December 2026; September 2026 was in the update of 5 November, 36 days after the month. If October is absent on 15 December the reading is made on 31 December 2026; absent then, it is void. The value of the reading date stands and a later revision is recorded beside it. Order of testing: first at or above 125,000; if false, at or below 105,000; if both are false the value is in the middle branch. Record: of the sixteen Octobers of the file, 2010 to 2025, ten were at or above 125,000, two between the thresholds (2019, 2021) and four at or below 105,000, the four most recent (2022 to 2025). The earlier years are not a like-for-like base rate, because the level fell over the period: nine-month exports were between about 1,370 and 2,780 thousand short tons in each year from 2010 to 2020, above the 1,363 of 2026, and 845 in 2025. What the threshold tests: whether the export level of the third quarter continues in the month in which exports to destinations other than Canada fell under their third-quarter mean in each year since 2022 and in thirteen of the sixteen years of the file; it does not test the cause, and the reading is also made by district and destination (Tampa and New Orleans against the land districts; India present or not). November 2026 is read alone on Friday 15 January 2027 (on 29 January if absent; absent then, void) and separates nothing between the three branches: in the sixteen years of the file November was 0.54 to 1.32 times October, the bands built on that ratio nearly nest, and the branch is settled by October alone. That reading says one thing: a ratio of November to the October printed outside 0.54 to 1.32 would be outside the sixteen-year record. Indicators: US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026; Read beside, not defining the branch: November 2026 alone divided by the October value printed, against 0.54 to 1.32, as of 15 January 2027.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-03-05. At least one text of The Mosaic Company states the restart of the idled Louisiana plant, a higher operating rate at a named curtailed US phosphate plant, or the end of the sulfur-related curtailments at the plants, and no text states a reduction. Production band read beside it: 1,345 to 1,504; a figure in the middle band with this branch true is recorded as a timing effect, a text dated late in the window raising only the last weeks of the quarter. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). Indicators: Company texts dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027 stating a restart, a higher operating rate or the end of the curtailments at a US phosphate plant, with no text stating a reduction; Read beside, not defining the branch: phosphate segment production, first quarter 2027, thousand tonnes, first-quarter release, against 1,345 to 1,504.

OPEN · confidence high · horizon 2027-03-05. No text of The Mosaic Company states a raise or a reduction of the operating rate of a US phosphate plant: the plants stay as described through 13 November 2026, whatever is restated about the mines. Production band read beside it: 1,206 to 1,344. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). Indicators: Company texts dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027 stating a raise or a reduction of the operating rate of a US phosphate plant; Read beside, not defining the branch: phosphate segment production, first quarter 2027, thousand tonnes, first-quarter release, against 1,206 to 1,344.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-03-05. At least one text of The Mosaic Company states a lower operating rate, the idling or the closure of a US phosphate plant that was in operation on 13 November 2026; this branch takes precedence if texts of both kinds exist. Production band read beside it: 901 to 1,205; a figure in the middle band with this branch true is recorded as a timing effect, a reduction announced late in the window removing few tonnes in the quarter. Reading rule: texts of The Mosaic Company dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027, read on 5 March 2027 at the company's investor pages (press releases, the preliminary volumes update expected in mid-January on the 2026 precedent, the fourth-quarter 2026 release expected in the last week of February on the same precedent). Counted: statements on the operating rate of a US phosphate plant (the Florida and Louisiana concentrates plants). A text that prints an operating rate other than 'low- to mid-60%' for a period already ended, without announcing a restart, a raise, a reduction, an idling or a closure, is a measurement of the state reached and not a decision: it counts in neither kind and the reading stays in the branch 'no text'; a rate counts only when the text states it as decided or gives it for a period after its own date. Order of testing: a text stating a reduction first; if none, a text stating a raise; if neither, no text. Not counted: any statement on the rock mines, including the South Fort Meade mine, whose idling from 8 December 2026 for more than six months was notified on 5 October 2026 (known through the press that cites the filing) and is the starting state; a text making permanent the idling of the Louisiana plant already idle, recorded beside the branch; a sale of the phosphate business or of a plant. Starting state on 13 November 2026: one Louisiana plant idle and one Florida plant at 40 percent of its targeted rate (release of 4 August 2026); Florida 'in the low- to mid-60% range' and sulfur under contract for 65 to 66 percent of 2027 needs (a summary, published on 7 November 2026, of the call of 4 November 2026; not a transcript). The first-quarter 2027 sulfur contract is unknown and is read beside the decision against 615 USD per long ton. If no fourth-quarter release exists on 5 March 2027 the reading is made on the texts published by then and says so. Read beside the branch and not defining it: phosphate segment production of the first quarter of 2027, in thousand tonnes, as printed in the first-quarter release, read on the day of that release; if none is published by 31 May 2027 that reading is void. The three bands (901 to 1,205; 1,206 to 1,344; 1,345 to 1,504) are contiguous and built on production: the spread of the three uncurtailed quarters on file applied to the third quarter of 2026 (1,289). Indicators: Company texts dated 14 November 2026 to 5 March 2027 stating a lower operating rate, the idling or the closure of a US phosphate plant in operation on 13 November 2026; Read beside, not defining the branch: phosphate segment production, first quarter 2027, thousand tonnes, first-quarter release, against 901 to 1,205.

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-03-01. At least one text permits duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco for three months or more beyond 28 February 2027, by prolonging Proclamation 11038 or by a new declaration, or extends it to other origins under the order on Russia. A text permits arrivals and does not compel them: a May-to-September sum under 33,000 with this branch true is the case 'window open, origin absent' and is recorded as such. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. Indicators: Federal Register, search 'phosphate fertilizers': number of presidential documents or Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that permit duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco for three months or more beyond 28 February 2027, or extend it to other origins; one text at either address meets the count; White House presidential actions: number of texts dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that permit duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco for three months or more beyond 28 February 2027, or extend it to other origins; one text at either address meets the count; Read beside, not defining the branch: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order, phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, as of 15 November 2027, against 33,000 to 155,000.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-03-01. At least one text keeps a relief narrower than Proclamation 11038 beyond 28 February 2027 (duty-free importation permitted for less than three months, a quantity limit, or named shipments only), and no text permits entry for three months or more. No precedent of this kind was read for this order; the branch is kept because the Commerce notice of 8 July 2026 already works shipment by shipment. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. Indicators: Federal Register, search 'phosphate fertilizers': number of presidential documents or Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that keep a relief narrower than Proclamation 11038 beyond 28 February 2027, with no text permitting entry for three months or more; one text at either address meets the count; White House presidential actions: number of texts dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that keep a relief narrower than Proclamation 11038 beyond 28 February 2027, with no text permitting entry for three months or more; one text at either address meets the count; Read beside, not defining the branch: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order, phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, as of 15 November 2027, against 0 to 62,000.

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-03-01. No text permits duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco beyond 28 February 2027, in full or in a narrower form: the window ends on that date as written, or earlier if a text terminates the emergency, and the cash deposit applies again to shipments not approved before the end. The record under the order does not say which level of arrivals returns after a lapse: about 1,000 short tons over May to September 2025, the one year on file under the present deposit, and 25,000 to 31,000 in 2022 to 2024 under deposits of 19.97 then 2.12 percent. Reading rule: presidential documents and Department of Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027, read on 1 March 2027 and again on 8 March 2027 for a text dated in the last days of the window, at two addresses: the Federal Register (search 'phosphate fertilizers', where Proclamation 11038 appeared three days after signature) and the White House presidential-actions page. Order of testing: a text permitting entry for three months or more; if none, a text keeping a narrower relief; if neither, no text. Facts beside the decision: Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026 permits duty-free importation 'until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency', that is 28 February 2027; outside the window the cash deposit collected on the Moroccan producer is 16.60 percent (amended results of the 2022 review, in force since 26 December 2024); Commerce's sunset finding of 3 November 2026 is 20.04 percent and the order continues or ends with the International Trade Commission's determination after the hearing of 1 April 2027. Precedent of the instrument, one case read: Proclamation 10414 (solar cells) expired on its date, 6 June 2024; no precedent of a prolonged fertiliser window exists. Watched in every branch and not defining it: any federal text on sulfur. A shipment approved before the window closes may still enter within 60 days, so arrivals through April 2027 do not separate the branches. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (diammonium phosphate; monoammonium phosphate and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, read at the source on Monday 15 November 2027; if September 2027 is absent, on 30 November 2027; absent then, void. The bands nest and say so: 33,000 to 155,000 with entry permitted, 0 to 62,000 with a narrower relief, 0 to 32,000 with no text; the second contains the third and overlaps the first, the first and the third do not overlap. The branch is read on the text; the numbers do not define it. If the Commission's determination ends the order before September 2027, arrivals after it are no longer under a duty and the band of the branch 'no text' is void for those months. Indicators: Federal Register, search 'phosphate fertilizers': number of presidential documents or Commerce notices dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that permit duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco beyond 28 February 2027, in full or in a narrower form; one text at either address meets the count; White House presidential actions: number of texts dated 14 November 2026 to 1 March 2027 that permit duty-free importation of phosphate fertilisers from Morocco beyond 28 February 2027, in full or in a narrower form; one text at either address meets the count; Read beside, not defining the branch: Moroccan-origin imports on the four product lines of the order, phosphorus nutrient short tons, sum of May to September 2027, as of 15 November 2027, against 0 to 32,000.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-11-30. The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is at or above 700 USD per tonne: the level of the third-quarter 2026 Tampa contract (705 USD per long ton, 694 per tonne) held on average over seven months, which only June and July 2026 reached as single months. Residual read beside it: 2,530 to 2,934, from a second fall of the size of the first to the 2026 level. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. Indicators: Mean of the monthly US sulfur export unit values, January to July 2027, USD per tonne, latest USGS issue as of 30 November 2027; Read beside, not defining the branch: sulfur used from domestic sources (a residual), sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, against 2,530 to 2,934.

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-11-30. The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is above 300 and below 700 USD per tonne: under the mid-2026 level and above the level of late 2025; the fourth-quarter 2026 contract (615 USD per long ton, 605 per tonne) sits in this band, as do seven of the last twelve months. Residual read beside it: 2,935 to 3,337, between the 2026 and the 2025 levels. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. Indicators: Mean of the monthly US sulfur export unit values, January to July 2027, USD per tonne, latest USGS issue as of 30 November 2027, lower bound; Mean of the monthly US sulfur export unit values, January to July 2027, USD per tonne, latest USGS issue as of 30 November 2027, upper bound; Read beside, not defining the branch: sulfur used from domestic sources (a residual), sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, against 2,935 to 3,337.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-11-30. The mean export unit value of US sulfur over January to July 2027 is at or below 300 USD per tonne: back to the level of the Tampa contract of October 2025 (310 USD per long ton, 305 per tonne), the highest since the second quarter of 2022. Residual read beside it: 3,338 to 3,413, from the 2025 level to the 2024 level; it can stay under this band if phosphate capacity was closed in the meantime, and the reading then says which. Reading rule: the mean of the seven monthly values of the US sulfur export unit value (USD per tonne, value divided by quantity, USGS monthly survey) for January to July 2027, as the values stand in the latest issue on the USGS file store on Tuesday 30 November 2027. The survey has no calendar: the twelve issues for August 2025 to July 2026 were posted 76 to 249 days after their month (file headers, which may date re-uploads), six of the twelve within 122 days, the delay July 2027 has on 30 November 2027, and eight within 153 days, the delay June 2027 has. If July 2027 is absent on 30 November 2027 the mean is taken on January to June and says so; with fewer than six months posted on that date the reading is made a second time on Monday 31 January 2028, on the issue then latest and by the same rule; with fewer than six months then, the reading is void. A reading made on 30 November 2027 stands, and a later value is recorded beside it. Record: the same seven-month mean was 87 in 2024, 210 in 2025 and 610 in 2026; of the last twelve monthly values (August 2025 to July 2026) two are at or above 700, three at or below 300 and seven in between; no seven-month window on file reaches 700 and every window ending in 2025 is under 300. What the threshold tests: the value at which sulfur leaves, which is the stated cause of the curtailment; it does not test the phosphate market. A unit value is not a quoted price and mixes grades, forms and destinations. Read beside the branch and not defining it: 'sulfur used from domestic sources', sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, in the same issue; it is a residual (shipments less exports), and its bands describe the residual, not measured use. Indicators: Mean of the monthly US sulfur export unit values, January to July 2027, USD per tonne, latest USGS issue as of 30 November 2027; Read beside, not defining the branch: sulfur used from domestic sources (a residual), sum of January to July 2027, thousand tonnes, against 3,338 to 3,413.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2026-12-15. Conjecture, not shown by a series: domestic buyers stepped back first (fall 2025; cutbacks planned for fall 2026 as reported in the press in July), tonnes were placed abroad from January 2026 and to India from May, and production was curtailed in May and July; if domestic buyers return for fall 2026 and spring 2027, as the seller states on 3 November 2026, the tonnes the curtailment removes are missing from the domestic market. The rival reading is that they do not return in full and nothing is missing (demand first). Necessary sign, stated so that it can fail: US exports of DAP and MAP for October 2026, read in the USDA AgTransport trade file on 15 December 2026 (on 31 December if October is absent; absent then, void), are at or above 125,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient, a level no October of 2022 to 2025 reached and that ten of the twelve Octobers of 2010 to 2021 reached. The sign is necessary and does not discriminate: exports can stay high with a domestic market that is short of nothing. Falsifiers: October exports at or below 105,000; the Illinois ask at or under 932.14 in the reports of 27 November and 11 December 2026 with October exports at or above 125,000, which is the demand-first reading; the company reporting fourth-quarter phosphate sales at or above 1.5 million tonnes with North American demand named as the destination; the second US producer reporting fourth-quarter phosphate sales under its lowered guidance and repeating that customers defer. Indicators: US exports of DAP and MAP, phosphorus nutrient short tons, month of October 2026, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 December 2026; Read beside: Illinois distributor DAP ask, reports of 27 November and 11 December 2026, against 932.14 USD per short ton.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2026-12-11. Conjecture, not shown by a series: domestic buyers stepped back first (fall 2025; cutbacks planned for fall 2026 as reported in the press in July), tonnes were placed abroad from January 2026 and to India from May, and production was curtailed in May and July; if domestic buyers return for fall 2026 and spring 2027, as the seller states on 3 November 2026, the tonnes the curtailment removes are missing from the domestic market. The rival reading is that they do not return in full and nothing is missing (demand first). Discriminating sign, weaker because it rests on one earlier point: the Illinois distributor ask for DAP in the USDA report nearest 11 December 2026 is above 932.14 USD per short ton, its value in the report of 30 October 2026, while the World Bank November average of DAP, published in the first days of December, stays under 827 USD per tonne (3 percent above October). An inland price that rises alone points to tonnes missing at home; a Gulf price that rises with it does not separate the two readings; an inland ask at or under 932.14 is the demand-first reading. No history of the Illinois ask was collected, so the usual size of its difference with the Gulf price is not known. Indicators: Illinois statewide distributor DAP ask, USD per short ton, USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report nearest 11 December 2026; World Bank DAP, US Gulf, monthly average of November 2026, USD per tonne, published in the first days of December 2026.

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-06-30. Conjecture on Gulf sulfur refining and marketing: as long as the value at export exceeds the quarterly Tampa contract by a wide margin, the share of US sulfur exported stays above its 2024 and 2025 level, and the fourth-quarter contract at 615 USD per long ton (605 USD per tonne) is the buyer's price for keeping tonnes at home. Necessary sign: in the USGS issues for August, September and October 2026, exports total at least 600 thousand tonnes over the three months (504 and 413 in the same months of 2024 and 2025; 897 in May to July 2026; the highest three-month sum before 2026 is 687) and the simple mean of the three monthly unit values is at or above 605 (three-month means on file reach that level only for April to June and May to July 2026). Reading rule: the sign is read on the first of these dates on which the three issues are on the USGS file store: 29 January, 26 February, 31 March, 30 April, 31 May, 30 June 2027; if they are not all posted on 30 June 2027 the reading is void. The dates follow the posting record, not the data cut-off: the same three months of 2025 were posted 110 to 136 days after their month, and the longest delay on file is 249 days. Falsifiers: exports at or below 504 thousand tonnes with a mean unit value still at or above 605; exports at or above 600 with a mean unit value under 605, in which case the tonnes leave for another reason than the price gap. The sign does not judge who gives up value: sellers of molten sulfur without a forming outlet have no export alternative, and no public figure of forming capacity was found. Indicators: US sulfur exports, sum of August, September and October 2026, thousand tonnes, USGS monthly survey, first date from 29 January to 30 June 2027 on which the three issues are posted; Simple mean of the US sulfur export unit values of August, September and October 2026, USD per tonne, same issues.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-04-15. Conjecture on India: the purchases that pulled US DAP from May 2026 are seasonal blocks by a state buyer; they stop when the rabi stock is covered and do not depend on the US producer's situation. The mechanism rests on press: the letters of intent of May 2026 and the compensation of importers are reported by a trade publication relaying a price reporter, and no Indian government text was found. Necessary sign: the USDA AgTransport trade file shows no US-origin DAP or MAP to India in each of December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027. Record: since 2022 the sign held in two winters of four and failed in two, each time on December; on the sixteen winters of the file from December 2010 it held in five and failed in eleven. It tests the company's sentence of 3 November 2026 that the rabi tonnes are 'expected to be depleted by year-end'. Reading rule: read on 15 April 2027; if February 2027 is absent, on 30 April 2027; absent then, void. Falsifiers: a US-origin row of DAP or MAP to India in any of the three months; a new block purchase by the Indian state buyer announced before 31 January 2027 with United States among the origins, reported with its text. India took 42 percent of the January to September 2026 rise in US exports; the other 58 percent does not depend on it. Not tested: whether purchases resume in the next season, May to September 2027. Indicators: Number of months among December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027 with a US-origin row of DAP or MAP to India, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 April 2027.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-04-15. Conjecture on the import side: the duty-free window is the instrument the government chose on the ground it states, that US production 'is insufficient to support domestic agricultural food production after accounting for exports' (Proclamation 11038 of 29 June 2026). Necessary sign, on the four product lines of the order present in the USDA AgTransport file (DAP; MAP and other; concentrated superphosphates; normal superphosphates), Moroccan origin, phosphorus nutrient short tons, read at the source: at least two of the five months from October 2026 to February 2027 are above 10,000, a cargo-sized month. Record: eleven such months under the order of 7 April 2021 before the window, and none of the five October-to-February periods under the order has two. Reading rule: 15 April 2027; if February 2027 is absent, 30 April 2027; absent then, void. If the sign fails, the window was open and the origin did not come in those months: the binding constraint is then elsewhere than the duty (price asked, freight, the origin's own commitments, or the season). If it holds, it shows use of the window, not its cause: arrivals of this size also occurred under the order in 2022 to 2024 with a deposit collected. Falsifiers: fewer than two such months; a text terminating the emergency before 28 February 2027. Indicators: Number of months from October 2026 to February 2027 with Moroccan-origin imports above 10,000 short tons of phosphorus nutrient on the four product lines of the order, USDA AgTransport trade file as of 15 April 2027.

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USDA Agricultural Marketing Service — U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). The Grain Transportation Report datasets are described by USDA as non-confidential and not copyrighted; attribution requested. (policy, checked 2026-10-23)

USDA AMS AgTransport — Fertilizer Imports and Exports-Nutrient (U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute) — No licence declared: dataset metadata reads license: null, useRestriction: "n/a", attribution "U.S. Census Bureau and The Fertilizer Institute"; "Fertilizer commodity values are converted to nutrient-equivalent tons (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) using conversion factors from The Fertilizer Institute." The institute's own site terms (https://www.tfi.org/terms-of-use/) reserve its content: "for your personal, non-commercial use or internal business purpose only". The dataset is not on the USDA list of non-copyrighted GTR datasets. Cited, not redistributed, until USDA states the terms. (policy, checked 2026-11-13)

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