SIGNAL · Low water · 2026-10-21

Lower Danube low water at Ruse, maize export prices at Constanta and Hungary's maize imports, 2025–2026

Accepted

EAEMDR readings put the Danube at Ruse between −134 and −120 cm below gauge zero from 25 October to 1 November 2026, against a 2025 daily-mean minimum of −59 cm (12 July) and −15 cm on 1 November 2025. In DG AGRI weekly prices, Constanta FOB feed maize rose from 191.70 EUR/t (week 27) to 244.49 EUR/t (week 43, 2026) while Ruse farm-departure maize moved from 177 to 185 EUR/t, widening the gap from 14.70 to 59.49 EUR/t; Hungary's Great Plain farm-gate price stood at 235.86 EUR/t. Eurostat Comext shows Hungary importing 30,469 t of maize in August 2026, its latest month.

Geography: Ruse, Bulgaria (Danube gauge km 495.6) / Constanta port and the Romanian lower Danube / Hungary, Great Plain maize region / Serbia, middle Danube / Ukraine, Danube ports of Izmail and Reni. The report that started this signal → Edition: The Danube at Ruse sank a metre under zero and Constanța's premium over Romania's river silos widened by 21.57 EUR/t on the year, while Hungary, barred from Ukrainian maize, imports from its neighbours.. Dossier: reviewed on 2026-11-01.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: Pro Danube International — members (30 member organisations screened (carriers, barge lessors, terminals, port associations); six retained with grain or bulk exposure on the lower Danube.); Danube Commission — Solidarity Lanes port factsheets (Giurgiulești, Reni) (Terminal operators listed per port, June–July 2022; the Reni sheet is at Port_factsheet_Reni_07.07.2022.pdf. Used for Moldovan and Ukrainian operators on the lower reach.); TTS (Transport Trade Services) — Bucharest Stock Exchange filing, 22 July 2026 (Names the TTS–Cargill Canopus Star grain terminal in Constanța and its new barge intake.); UkrAgroConsult — Black Sea & Danube grain news, August–October 2026 (Trade reports naming ports, terminals and analysts on the Danube–Constanța route; also the CEE maize-harvest article citing Expana.); Bloomberg via gCaptain, 10 August 2026, and Latifundist / ASAP Agri, 23 July 2026 (Named Constanța terminal operators, traders, farm federations, brokers and river administrations quoted on low water.); Hungrana — news on the Hungarian maize shortfall, 2026 (Names the two large Hungarian maize processors (Hungrana, Pannonia Bio) and the import need; Hungarian-language.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-01-15. If the Danube at Ruse reads at or above −60 cm on 30 November 2026, the weekly gap between Constanța FOB feed maize and the Muntenia departure-from-silo price (DG AGRI) falls to 35 EUR/t or less in at least one week of December 2026, from 40.84 in week 43, as barges return to the reach above Cernavodă. Indicators: Danube level at Ruse, daily (EAEMDR), on 30 November 2026; Constanța FOB minus Muntenia silo price, weekly, December 2026 (derived from DG AGRI).

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-01-15. If the Danube at Ruse is still below −60 cm on 30 November 2026, every weekly gap between Constanța FOB feed maize and the Muntenia departure-from-silo price notified in December 2026 stays at or above 35 EUR/t; a print under 25 EUR/t while Ruse is below −100 cm breaks the river reading. Indicators: Danube level at Ruse, daily (EAEMDR), on 30 November 2026; Constanța FOB minus Muntenia silo price, weekly, December 2026 (derived from DG AGRI).

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-02-28. While Government Decree 91/2026 keeps Ukrainian maize out of the Hungarian market, Hungary's maize imports from all partners (Eurostat Comext) reach at least 60,000 tonnes in each of November and December 2026, whatever the Danube level, because the crop shortfall sets the volume and the river only the route. Indicators: Hungary maize imports, all partners, monthly, November and December 2026 (Eurostat Comext DS-045409); Hungarian Government Decree 91/2026 (V. 22.) on Ukrainian agricultural products, still in force.

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Sources and reuse

Eurostat (European Commission) — Comext — Eurostat copyright notice (CC BY 4.0 by default): "Reuse of statistical data, metadata, publications, and other dissemination tools published on this website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is authorised provided the source is acknowledged." Credit: Eurostat. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development — Agri-food Data Portal (cereal prices) — Commission legal notice and reuse policy (Decision 2011/833/EU): "Unless otherwise indicated (e.g. in individual copyright notices), content owned by the EU on this website is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence"; credit the source and indicate changes. Prices are notified by Member States and compiled by DG AGRI; no portal-specific notice found. (policy, checked 2026-11-01)

Executive Agency for Exploration and Maintenance of the Danube River (EAEMDR / ИАППД), Bulgaria — EAEMDR Terms for the Reuse of Data (Bulgarian law, Directive 2019/1024/EU): "the user is required to clearly and visibly indicate EAEMDR as the source of the primary data, including when the data has been processed, aggregated, or combined with other sources"; transformed data must be marked as modified; no use of the EAEMDR name or logo for commercial or promotional purposes without written consent. (policy, checked 2026-11-01)