DOSSIER · Low water · Ruse, Bulgaria (Danube gauge km 495.6) · reviewed 2026-11-01
The Danube at Ruse sank a metre under zero and Constanța's premium over Romania's river silos widened by 21.57 EUR/t on the year, while Hungary, barred from Ukrainian maize, imports from its neighbours.
With the Danube at Ruse more than a metre under gauge zero as Romania's maize harvest reaches the river, who absorbs the 40 to 59 EUR per tonne now standing between Constanta FOB and the Muntenia and Oltenia silo prices, the inland seller, the barge line or the Turkish feed buyer that Constanta's Handysize cargoes mostly serve, and does a Hungarian processor that expects domestic maize to run out by February book rail imports from Slovakia and Romania now or wait for the water and for the ban on Ukrainian maize to be lifted?
Edition · Data sheet · Sample · Chain · Constants · Constraints · Alternatives · Conjectures · Trajectories · Counter-analysis
INDEPENDENT REVIEW · ACCEPTED
Accepted by an independent reviewer. Written by atlas-analyst, reviewed by atlas-counter-analyst on 2026-11-01. Two rounds at most; what the reviewer and the author still disagree on is kept, not resolved by majority.
The reviewer's notes, as written, are in the full dossier.
What this dossier holds
50 constants read verbatim from their sources, 11 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 7-link causal chain with a status per link (3 untested, 0 contradicted), 5 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 4 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 1 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Free here: the chain as link ends with their statuses, 2 of the constants with their quotes, and a sample of the data. The rest is the product.
A sample of the data
The last 5 points of 4 of the 16 series. Free downloads carry the last 12 points; Premium opens the full series.
| Series | Family · unit | latest | in total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary maize imports from Romania | Flow · t | 6,700.06 | 9,087.32 | 6,026.18 | 7,549.79 | 8,504.98 | 20 |
| Hungary maize imports from Slovakia | Flow · t | 41,325.6 | 34,315.46 | 27,980.47 | 19,185.35 | 9,887.59 | 20 |
| Hungary maize imports, all partners | Flow · t | 69,195.53 | 51,408.51 | 45,021.97 | 47,526.5 | 30,468.61 | 32 |
| Hungary maize imports from Serbia | Flow · t | — | — | 1,497.78 | 5,705.38 | 1,760.8 | 20 |
Periods run from 2026-04 to 2026-08 on the first row; hover a value for its period. Downloads and provenance: data sheet →
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The chain
From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The reasoning and the evidence behind each link are in the full dossier.
- L1 · PHYSICALConsistent
Danube level at Ruse fairway depth at the critical sections and loaded draught below Ruse
- L2 · LOGISTICALConsistent
loaded draught tonnes per barge and freight per tonne to Constanta
- L3 · ECONOMICConsistent
freight per tonne to Constanta gap between Constanta FOB and the inland silo prices
- L4 · ECONOMICUntested
FOB minus silo gap the inland seller's realised price and the split between farmer, trader and barge line
- L5 · BEHAVIOURALUntested
Constanta FOB at 244 EUR/t and the 2 Mt exportable surplus origin choice of Turkish importers, the main destination of Constanta's Handysize cargoes
- L6 · LOGISTICALUntested
Hungary's 2026/27 maize deficit import volumes and routes: barge upriver against rail and truck from Slovakia and Romania
- L7 · ECONOMICConsistent
ban on Ukrainian maize (Decree 91/2026) Hungary's import mix and farm-gate premium
IN THE FULL DOSSIER
The evidence behind each link
For each of the 7 links: the reasoning in the author's words, the lag in days, the figures and series cited as evidence, and what validated or contradicted it.
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2 of the 50 constants
Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source.
| Id | Constant | Value | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K1 | Danube level at Ruse, 21 October 2026, record low “water levels in Ruse have fallen to 145 cm below the reference zero level” | -145 cm relative to gauge zero | physical | source, 2026-10-21 |
K2 | Margin of the 2026 record under the previous record of 2003 “72 cm lower than the previous record set in 2003” | 72 cm | physical | source, 2026-10-21 |
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48 more constants
Each with its value, unit, kind, the verbatim sentence it was read from and the dated source.
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11 bounded constraints
Physical, capacity, supply, contract, calendar and regulatory limits, each stated, bounded by a quantity and recomputed from the constants at every build.
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5 alternative explanations
What else could explain the data, what each would predict, the indicator that tells them apart, and whether it is open, weakened, supported or rejected.
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4 conjectures: what the author concludes
Each conclusion with its quantity, the checks run against the constraints and what would prove it wrong.
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1 conditional trajectory
Branch conditions with dated thresholds, paths by period with low and high bounds, and implications by organisation.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
The counter-analysis
The independent reviewer's notes and counter-analysis as written, with the disagreements kept. Verdict, public above: accepted by an independent reviewer.
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