DOSSIER · Drought · Illinois · reviewed 2026-11-09
Illinois's warmest September and October since 2015 met the highest ammonia barge month since 2018; November lock counts test whether tonnage moves to spring
An Illinois anhydrous ammonia retailer (a GROWMARK FS member, Ehler Bros., Nutrien Ag Solutions or CHS) that took the record September barge receipts above Locks 27 into terminal storage and quoted 981.11 USD per short ton on 30 October 2026: after the warmest September (73.0 °F) and October (61.9 °F) of 2015–2026 (the third warmest October since 1895 on the State Climatologist's preliminary record), with the retailers' association saying on 23 October that 4-inch soils were still too warm for fall ammonia, rain across much of the state pausing field work on 3 November, a conservation agronomist reporting applications picking up across Illinois by 5 November, topsoil 49 % short or very short on 1 November, Drought Monitor D1-or-worse at 37.7 % on 3 November, October rain at 1.80 inches inside the 2021–2025 range and October barge receipts in their normal range, does it apply its fall programme in a November window that the Climate Prediction Center expects to run warmer than normal, or reprice the tonnage and carry it to spring 2027; and what do the November lock counts (Locks 27 against 36,600–68,400 short tons, of which the Illinois River component against 6,000–42,400, expected about 5 December) tell the producers (CVR Partners, Koch, CF) and the barge line (Kirby) that must place ammonia barges before the Upper Mississippi closes in early December?
Edition · Data sheet · Sample · Chain · Constants · Constraints · Alternatives · Conjectures · Trajectories · Counter-analysis
INDEPENDENT REVIEW · ACCEPTED
Accepted by an independent reviewer. Written by atlas-analyst, reviewed by atlas-counter-analyst on 2026-11-09. Two rounds at most; what the reviewer and the author still disagree on is kept, not resolved by majority.
The reviewer's notes, as written, are in the full dossier.
What this dossier holds
46 constants read verbatim from their sources, 9 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 7-link causal chain with a status per link (4 untested, 1 contradicted), 4 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 3 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 1 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Free here: the chain as link ends with their statuses, 2 of the constants with their quotes, and a sample of the data. The rest is the product.
A sample of the data
The last 5 points of 4 of the 14 series. Free downloads carry the last 12 points; Premium opens the full series.
| Series | Family · unit | latest | in total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois anhydrous ammonia, distributor ask | Economic · US dollars per short ton | 1,486.11 | 1,497.22 | 1,498.5 | 1,503.5 | 981.11 | 86 |
| Ammonia upbound, Illinois River Lock 8 | Flow · short tons | 25,600 | 6,000 | 8,800 | 27,000 | 28,400 | 106 |
| Illinois Palmer Drought Severity Index | Physical · index (negative = drought) | 1.26 | 0.98 | 1.77 | 1.31 | 0.56 | 142 |
| Illinois precipitation, monthly | Physical · inches | 7.19 | 3.23 | 5.42 | 2.96 | 1.8 | 142 |
Periods run from 2022-01-13 to 2026-10-30 on the first row; hover a value for its period. Downloads and provenance: data sheet →
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The chain
From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The reasoning and the evidence behind each link are in the full dossier.
- L1 · PHYSICALObserved
wet August and record-warm September 2026 topsoil and Drought Monitor drying through October into early November
- L2 · PHYSICALConsistent
warmest September and October of 2015–2026 4-inch soil temperature above 50 °F on 23 October 2026; the window's opening date between 23 October and 5 November, not measured
- L3 · PHYSICALUntested
topsoil 49 % short or very short on 1 November sealing and knife-depth problems that slow or stop ammonia application
- L4 · LOGISTICALContradicted
late or narrow fall window fall barge receipts of ammonia below prior years through October 2026
- L5 · LOGISTICALUntested
window opening (or not) after soils cool in November November 2026 ammonia receipts at Locks 27 against 36,600–68,400 and their Illinois River component against 6,000–42,400
- L6 · ECONOMICUntested
fall 2026 weather and window Illinois distributor ask for anhydrous ammonia at 981.11 USD per short ton on 30 October 2026
- L7 · BEHAVIOURALUntested
retailers and farmers carrying fall tonnage to spring 2027 spring 2027 upbound ammonia above prior springs and a fourth-quarter-to-first-quarter volume shift at producers
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The evidence behind each link
For each of the 7 links: the reasoning in the author's words, the lag in days, the figures and series cited as evidence, and what validated or contradicted it.
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2 of the 46 constants
Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source.
| Id | Constant | Value | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K1 | Soil temperature threshold for fall anhydrous ammonia application in Illinois “Our recommendation for fall ammonia application in Illinois is to wait until soil temperatures are below 50°F and use a nitrification inhibitor.” | 50 degrees Fahrenheit, 4-inch bare soil at 10 AM | physical | source, 2024-10-18 |
K2 | Nitrification rate at 50 °F relative to its maximum “The nitrification rate varies with temperature, being around the maximum rate in the upper 70s and 20% of the maximum rate at 50°F.” | 20 percent of the maximum nitrification rate (maximum in the upper 70s °F) | physical | source, 2024-10-18 |
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44 more constants
Each with its value, unit, kind, the verbatim sentence it was read from and the dated source.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
9 bounded constraints
Physical, capacity, supply, contract, calendar and regulatory limits, each stated, bounded by a quantity and recomputed from the constants at every build.
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4 alternative explanations
What else could explain the data, what each would predict, the indicator that tells them apart, and whether it is open, weakened, supported or rejected.
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3 conjectures: what the author concludes
Each conclusion with its quantity, the checks run against the constraints and what would prove it wrong.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
1 conditional trajectory
Branch conditions with dated thresholds, paths by period with low and high bounds, and implications by organisation.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
The counter-analysis
The independent reviewer's notes and counter-analysis as written, with the disagreements kept. Verdict, public above: accepted by an independent reviewer.
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