SIGNAL · Drought · 2026-10-29

Illinois fall anhydrous ammonia: a warm, late-drying fall with barge receipts in their usual range, autumn 2026

Accepted

Upbound anhydrous ammonia through Mississippi River Locks 27 (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers via USDA AgTransport) reached 92,020 short tons in September 2026, the highest month since the series began in January 2018, and 47,600 in October; the two months total 139,620, level with the 2018 high of 139,700. NOAA's statewide series put September 2026 at 73.0 °F and October at 61.9 °F, the warmest of each month in 2015–2026; the Illinois State Climatologist ranks October third warmest since 1895. USDA NASS rated 49 % of Illinois topsoil short or very short in the week ending 1 November, against 35 % on 4 October and 65 % in the same week of 2024; the U.S. Drought Monitor map of 3 November showed 37.7 % of the state in moderate drought or worse. USDA AMS put the Illinois distributor ask for anhydrous ammonia at 981.11 USD per short ton on 30 October. The claim that the dry, warm fall moves application and tonnage to spring is not supported so far; the November lock count, due about 5 December, is the next test.

Geography: Illinois (corn belt, fall nitrogen application area) / Missouri (D3–D4 drought; Mississippi River Locks 27 near St. Louis) / Indiana (central Indiana drought) / Louisiana (lower Mississippi, origin side of upbound fertilizer barges). The report that started this signal → Edition: Illinois's warmest September and October since 2015 met the highest ammonia barge month since 2018; November lock counts test whether tonnage moves to spring. Dossier: reviewed on 2026-11-09.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: The Fertilizer Institute — Our Members (273 member organisations listed (producers, importers, traders, retailers, railroads, terminals); screened for the nitrogen chain.); Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association — Board of Directors 2026 (Company affiliations of the board seats (Illinois retail districts, manufacturers, distributors); only organisation names used.); Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association — Sponsors (About 50 Illinois retailers, FS cooperatives, terminals and suppliers; Trammo and Granite City Terminal among them.); SEC EDGAR filings (Read on 4 Nov 2026: CF Industries 10-K FY2025; CVR Partners 10-K FY2025 and 10-Q Q3 2026; LSB Industries 10-Q Q3 2026; Kirby 10-K FY2025 and 10-Q Q2 2026; CHS 10-K FY2025; Union Pacific 10-K FY2025.); USDA AgTransport — Monthly Fertilizer Barge Movements (USACE LPMS) (Locks covered on the Mississippi and Illinois rivers; used for the barge and lock links.); University of Illinois — farmdoc and Extension fall nitrogen guidance (50 °F rule, named inhibitor products; Extension podcast of fall 2026 for the fall-versus-spring comparison.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-05-31. If upbound ammonia through Locks 27 in November 2026 is at or above 36,600 short tons, the 2018–2025 November low, then the fall programme was supplied in a November window that opened after soils cooled, and upbound ammonia through Locks 27 stays inside its 2018–2026 ranges in spring 2027: at or below 52,900 short tons in March and at or below 30,000 in April, as after the warm, dry fall of 2024 (30,040 in March and 14,000 in April 2025). Indicators: Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, November 2026, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, release expected about 5 December 2026); Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, March 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 April 2027); Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, April 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 May 2027).

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-05-31. If upbound ammonia through Locks 27 in November 2026 is below 36,600 short tons while its Illinois River component is at or above 6,000, the 2018–2025 November low on that river, then the low count measures terminals filled by the record September (92,020 short tons) rather than a curtailed window, and spring 2027 at Locks 27 stays inside its 2018–2026 ranges: at or below 52,900 short tons in March and at or below 30,000 in April. Indicators: Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, November 2026, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, release expected about 5 December 2026); Upbound ammonia through the Illinois River lock, November 2026, short tons: the Illinois Waterway component of the Locks 27 count (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 December 2026); Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, March 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 April 2027); Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, April 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 May 2027).

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-05-31. If upbound ammonia in November 2026 is below 6,000 short tons through the Illinois River lock and below 36,600 through Locks 27, both under their 2018–2025 November lows, then fall application was deferred, as the trade-press claim states, and spring 2027 at Locks 27 runs above its 2018–2026 highs: above 52,900 short tons in March and above 30,000 in April, up to the demonstrated monthly maximum of 92,020 (September 2026). Indicators: Upbound ammonia through the Illinois River lock, November 2026, short tons: the Illinois Waterway component of the Locks 27 count (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 December 2026); Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, November 2026, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, release expected about 5 December 2026); Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, March 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 April 2027); Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, April 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 May 2027).

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Sources and reuse

USDA Agricultural Marketing Service — U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). The Grain Transportation Report datasets are described by USDA as non-confidential and not copyrighted; attribution requested. (policy, checked 2026-10-23)

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (via USDA AgTransport) — U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). Dataset metadata on AgTransport states useRestriction: Unrestricted. (policy, checked 2026-10-23)

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information — U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). The nClimDiv dataset record behind Climate at a Glance states as its only use constraints a citation ("Cite as: Vose, Russell S.; ... (2014): NOAA Monthly U.S. Climate Divisional Database (NClimDiv) ... doi:10.7289/V5M32STR") and a liability disclaimer ("NOAA and NCEI make no warranty..."); no restriction on reuse. (policy, checked 2026-11-04)

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). NASS Citation Request page: "Public domain information on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Web pages may be freely downloaded and reproduced. However, it is requested that in any subsequent use of this work, USDA-NASS be given appropriate acknowledgment." Crop Progress reports are read from the USDA ESMIS archive (Cornell) that NASS publishes to. (policy, checked 2026-11-04)