{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","title":"Illinois fall anhydrous ammonia: a warm, late-drying fall with barge receipts in their usual range, autumn 2026","date":"2026-10-29","mechanism":"DROUGHT","geography":[{"code":"US-IL","name":"Illinois (corn belt, fall nitrogen application area)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-MO","name":"Missouri (D3–D4 drought; Mississippi River Locks 27 near St. Louis)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-IN","name":"Indiana (central Indiana drought)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-LA","name":"Louisiana (lower Mississippi, origin side of upbound fertilizer barges)","latitude":null,"longitude":null}],"source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","summary":"Upbound anhydrous ammonia through Mississippi River Locks 27 (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers via USDA AgTransport) reached 92,020 short tons in September 2026, the highest month since the series began in January 2018, and 47,600 in October; the two months total 139,620, level with the 2018 high of 139,700. NOAA's statewide series put September 2026 at 73.0 °F and October at 61.9 °F, the warmest of each month in 2015–2026; the Illinois State Climatologist ranks October third warmest since 1895. USDA NASS rated 49 % of Illinois topsoil short or very short in the week ending 1 November, against 35 % on 4 October and 65 % in the same week of 2024; the U.S. Drought Monitor map of 3 November showed 37.7 % of the state in moderate drought or worse. USDA AMS put the Illinois distributor ask for anhydrous ammonia at 981.11 USD per short ton on 30 October. The claim that the dry, warm fall moves application and tonnage to spring is not supported so far; the November lock count, due about 5 December, is the next test.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":86,"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","key":"il-anhydrous-usd-st","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Anhydrous ammonia, Illinois statewide distributor offer average, bulk FOB (USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report, bi-weekly). 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The Grain Transportation Report datasets are described by USDA as non-confidential and not copyrighted; attribution requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/gtr-datasets","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2021-10-07","value":856.5},{"period":"2021-10-21","value":1135},{"period":"2021-11-04","value":1205},{"period":"2021-11-18","value":1343.75},{"period":"2021-12-02","value":1434.38},{"period":"2021-12-16","value":1445},{"period":"2021-12-30","value":1494.44},{"period":"2022-01-13","value":1486.11},{"period":"2022-01-27","value":1497.22},{"period":"2022-02-10","value":1498.5},{"period":"2022-02-24","value":1503.5},{"period":"2026-10-30","value":981.11}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":106,"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","key":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","family":"FLOW","variable":"Ammonia (WCUS 52261) moved upbound through Illinois River Lock 8 as numbered by AgTransport, monthly (USACE LPMS via USDA AgTransport); months without a published row are null","unit":"short tons","geography":"US-IL","publisher":"usace","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/4pdq-r8e8/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"c34dabf3d3c96fdbdbe75894e960ea3f0c9353742e90c1ae4b16449c09a433b9","collected_at":"2026-11-09T16:27:30+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (via USDA AgTransport)","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). 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However, it is requested that in any subsequent use of this work, USDA-NASS be given appropriate acknowledgment.\" Crop Progress reports are read from the USDA ESMIS archive (Cornell) that NASS publishes to.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.nass.usda.gov/data-and-statistics/citation-request","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-04","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W33","value":15},{"period":"2026-W34","value":10},{"period":"2026-W35","value":17},{"period":"2026-W36","value":30},{"period":"2026-W37","value":29},{"period":"2026-W38","value":25},{"period":"2026-W39","value":22},{"period":"2026-W40","value":24},{"period":"2026-W41","value":28},{"period":"2026-W42","value":24},{"period":"2026-W43","value":30},{"period":"2026-W44","value":32}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":103,"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","key":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Illinois topsoil moisture rated short or very short (sum of the two published categories), percent of cropland, week ending Sunday (USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress, 'Topsoil Moisture Condition - Selected States'); reports numbered 31-49 of 2021-2026 (weeks ending late July to late November), as available; 2025 weeks 40-45 null, no report issued","unit":"percent of topsoil (cropland-weighted)","geography":"US-IL","publisher":"usda-nass","source_url":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/node/2179","source_sha256":"d30032dad865bb4fcbd62977caf6f99e11fb0bee889a79bc7ef505c4505904ad","collected_at":"2026-11-04T17:11:01+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":{"op":"sum","inputs":["il-topsoil-very-short-pct","il-topsoil-short-pct"]},"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). 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However, it is requested that in any subsequent use of this work, USDA-NASS be given appropriate acknowledgment.\" Crop Progress reports are read from the USDA ESMIS archive (Cornell) that NASS publishes to.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.nass.usda.gov/data-and-statistics/citation-request","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-04","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W33","value":19},{"period":"2026-W34","value":13},{"period":"2026-W35","value":20},{"period":"2026-W36","value":39},{"period":"2026-W37","value":40},{"period":"2026-W38","value":36},{"period":"2026-W39","value":33},{"period":"2026-W40","value":35},{"period":"2026-W41","value":41},{"period":"2026-W42","value":32},{"period":"2026-W43","value":44},{"period":"2026-W44","value":49}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":103,"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","key":"il-topsoil-surplus-pct","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Illinois topsoil moisture rated surplus, percent of cropland, week ending Sunday (USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress, 'Topsoil Moisture Condition - Selected States'); reports numbered 31-49 of 2021-2026 (weeks ending late July to late November), as available; 2025 weeks 40-45 null, no report issued","unit":"percent of topsoil (cropland-weighted)","geography":"US-IL","publisher":"usda-nass","source_url":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/node/2179","source_sha256":"d30032dad865bb4fcbd62977caf6f99e11fb0bee889a79bc7ef505c4505904ad","collected_at":"2026-11-04T17:11:01+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). 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However, it is requested that in any subsequent use of this work, USDA-NASS be given appropriate acknowledgment.\" Crop Progress reports are read from the USDA ESMIS archive (Cornell) that NASS publishes to.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.nass.usda.gov/data-and-statistics/citation-request","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-04","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W33","value":25},{"period":"2026-W34","value":19},{"period":"2026-W35","value":7},{"period":"2026-W36","value":3},{"period":"2026-W37","value":2},{"period":"2026-W38","value":9},{"period":"2026-W39","value":7},{"period":"2026-W40","value":10},{"period":"2026-W41","value":5},{"period":"2026-W42","value":5},{"period":"2026-W43","value":4},{"period":"2026-W44","value":3}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":103,"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","key":"il-topsoil-very-short-pct","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Illinois topsoil moisture rated very short, percent of cropland, week ending Sunday (USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress, 'Topsoil Moisture Condition - Selected States'); reports numbered 31-49 of 2021-2026 (weeks ending late July to late November), as available; 2025 weeks 40-45 null, no report issued","unit":"percent of topsoil (cropland-weighted)","geography":"US-IL","publisher":"usda-nass","source_url":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/node/2179","source_sha256":"d30032dad865bb4fcbd62977caf6f99e11fb0bee889a79bc7ef505c4505904ad","collected_at":"2026-11-04T17:11:01+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). NASS Citation Request page: \"Public domain information on the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Web pages may be freely downloaded and reproduced. However, it is requested that in any subsequent use of this work, USDA-NASS be given appropriate acknowledgment.\" Crop Progress reports are read from the USDA ESMIS archive (Cornell) that NASS publishes to.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.nass.usda.gov/data-and-statistics/citation-request","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-04","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W33","value":4},{"period":"2026-W34","value":3},{"period":"2026-W35","value":3},{"period":"2026-W36","value":9},{"period":"2026-W37","value":11},{"period":"2026-W38","value":11},{"period":"2026-W39","value":11},{"period":"2026-W40","value":11},{"period":"2026-W41","value":13},{"period":"2026-W42","value":8},{"period":"2026-W43","value":14},{"period":"2026-W44","value":17}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":86,"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","key":"il-uan28-usd-st","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Liquid nitrogen 28% (UAN28), Illinois statewide distributor offer average, FOB (USDA AMS Illinois Production Cost Report, bi-weekly; labelled '28% spread' to 2022, '28-0-0' in 2026). 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The Grain Transportation Report datasets are described by USDA as non-confidential and not copyrighted; attribution requested.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/gtr-datasets","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2021-10-07","value":743.33},{"period":"2021-10-21","value":810},{"period":"2021-11-04","value":811.67},{"period":"2021-11-18","value":866.67},{"period":"2021-12-02","value":915},{"period":"2021-12-16","value":907.47},{"period":"2021-12-30","value":912.33},{"period":"2022-01-13","value":895.67},{"period":"2022-01-27","value":895.67},{"period":"2022-02-10","value":897.33},{"period":"2022-02-24","value":889},{"period":"2026-10-30","value":770}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":106,"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","family":"FLOW","variable":"Ammonia (WCUS 52261) moved upbound through Mississippi River Locks 27, monthly (USACE Lock Performance Monitoring System via USDA AgTransport)","unit":"short tons","geography":"US-IL","publisher":"usace","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/4pdq-r8e8/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"c34dabf3d3c96fdbdbe75894e960ea3f0c9353742e90c1ae4b16449c09a433b9","collected_at":"2026-11-09T16:27:30+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (via USDA AgTransport)","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). Dataset metadata on AgTransport states useRestriction: Unrestricted.","licence_evidence_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/n4pw-9ygw.json","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-11","value":50000},{"period":"2025-12","value":42600},{"period":"2026-01","value":36400},{"period":"2026-02","value":29800},{"period":"2026-03","value":32200},{"period":"2026-04","value":3000},{"period":"2026-05","value":1600},{"period":"2026-06","value":63000},{"period":"2026-07","value":49800},{"period":"2026-08","value":38800},{"period":"2026-09","value":92020},{"period":"2026-10","value":47600}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":142,"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","key":"lock27-fertilizer-up-tons","family":"FLOW","variable":"All fertilizer moved upbound through Mississippi River Locks 27, monthly (USACE LPMS via USDA AgTransport 'Monthly Grain and Fertilizer Barge Movements')","unit":"short tons","geography":"US-IL","publisher":"usace","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/sthp-khuk/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD","source_sha256":"b37d54bcb396b141449ed65fdb382b2e53a60a302bf551afc2287a7fb5906bea","collected_at":"2026-11-09T16:27:30+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (via USDA AgTransport)","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). Dataset metadata on AgTransport states useRestriction: Unrestricted.","licence_evidence_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/n4pw-9ygw.json","licence_checked_at":"2026-10-23","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-11","value":333500},{"period":"2025-12","value":222700},{"period":"2026-01","value":218500},{"period":"2026-02","value":202100},{"period":"2026-03","value":559800},{"period":"2026-04","value":857900},{"period":"2026-05","value":419800},{"period":"2026-06","value":252100},{"period":"2026-07","value":406700},{"period":"2026-08","value":548800},{"period":"2026-09","value":640430},{"period":"2026-10","value":591100}]}],"edition":{"title":"Illinois's warmest September and October since 2015 met the highest ammonia barge month since 2018; November lock counts test whether tonnage moves to spring","lead":"Upbound anhydrous ammonia through Mississippi River Locks 27 reached 92,020 short tons in September 2026, the highest month since the series began in 2018, and September plus October came to 139,620, level with the 2018 high of 139,700, in Illinois's warmest September and October of 2015–2026. The claim that this dry, warm fall narrows the application window and moves tonnage to spring is not supported by the data so far: barge receipts did not fall, and applications were reported picking up by 5 November, inside the usual opening range. The next test is the November lock count, due about 5 December: below 36,600 short tons at Locks 27 with the Illinois River component below 6,000 would be the first sign of a deferral.","published_at":"2026-11-09","vectors":["lock27-ammonia-up-tons","il-tavg-f","il-anhydrous-usd-st"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":92020},{"id":"F2","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2026-10","value":47600},{"id":"F3","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2018-10","value":78900},{"id":"F4","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2018-09","value":60800},{"id":"F5","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2018-11","value":36600},{"id":"F6","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2023-11","value":68400},{"id":"F7","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":27000},{"id":"F8","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2026-10","value":28400},{"id":"F9","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2019-11","value":6000},{"id":"F10","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2023-11","value":42400},{"id":"F11","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2022-03","value":52900},{"id":"F12","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2024-03","value":12400},{"id":"F13","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2022-04","value":30000},{"id":"F14","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2026-04","value":3000},{"id":"F15","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2025-10","value":69900},{"id":"F16","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"min","period":null,"value":1600},{"id":"F17","series":"lock27-fertilizer-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2026-10","value":591100},{"id":"F18","series":"lock27-fertilizer-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":640430},{"id":"F19","series":"il-tavg-f","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":73},{"id":"F20","series":"il-tavg-f","stat":"value","period":"2019-09","value":71.6},{"id":"F21","series":"il-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":5.42},{"id":"F22","series":"il-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":2.96},{"id":"F23","series":"il-pdsi","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":1.31},{"id":"F24","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":49},{"id":"F25","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W40","value":35},{"id":"F26","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2024-W43","value":80},{"id":"F27","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2024-W44","value":65},{"id":"F28","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2021-W44","value":4},{"id":"F29","series":"il-topsoil-very-short-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":17},{"id":"F30","series":"il-topsoil-adequate-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":48},{"id":"F31","series":"il-anhydrous-usd-st","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-30","value":981.11},{"id":"F32","series":"il-anhydrous-usd-st","stat":"value","period":"2021-10-21","value":1135},{"id":"F33","series":"il-anhydrous-usd-st","stat":"value","period":"2021-10-07","value":856.5},{"id":"F34","series":"il-anhydrous-usd-st","stat":"value","period":"2019-10-24","value":485.7},{"id":"F35","series":"il-anhydrous-usd-st","stat":"value","period":"2020-10-22","value":431.56},{"id":"F36","series":"il-anhydrous-usd-st","stat":"max","period":null,"value":1503.5},{"id":"F37","series":"il-urea-usd-st","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-30","value":770},{"id":"F38","series":"il-uan28-usd-st","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-30","value":467.86},{"id":"F39","series":"il-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2024-10","value":0.9},{"id":"F40","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2024-10","value":74400},{"id":"F41","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2025-11","value":50000},{"id":"F42","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2025-11","value":36200},{"id":"F43","series":"il-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2021-10","value":6.02},{"id":"F44","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2018-12","value":22000},{"id":"F45","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2020-12","value":64000},{"id":"F46","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2022-03","value":22000},{"id":"F47","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2021-03","value":1600},{"id":"F48","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2024-04","value":18600},{"id":"F49","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2025-04","value":1600},{"id":"F50","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2021-W46","value":11},{"id":"F51","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2025-W46","value":66},{"id":"F52","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2024-11","value":46400},{"id":"F53","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2025-03","value":30040},{"id":"F54","series":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2025-04","value":14000},{"id":"F56","series":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2024-11","value":27300},{"id":"F57","series":"il-tavg-f","stat":"value","period":"2024-10","value":58.6},{"id":"F58","series":"il-pdsi","stat":"value","period":"2024-10","value":-1.25},{"id":"F59","series":"il-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2024-09","value":2.67},{"id":"F60","series":"il-tavg-f","stat":"value","period":"2021-10","value":60.2},{"id":"F61","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2021-W47","value":11},{"id":"F62","series":"il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","stat":"value","period":"2025-W47","value":55},{"id":"F63","series":"lock27-fertilizer-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2017-03","value":1037950},{"id":"F64","series":"lock27-fertilizer-up-tons","stat":"value","period":"2020-03","value":141600},{"id":"F65","series":"il-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2026-10","value":1.8},{"id":"F66","series":"il-tavg-f","stat":"value","period":"2026-10","value":61.9},{"id":"F67","series":"il-pdsi","stat":"value","period":"2026-10","value":0.56}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27 and the Illinois River lock, November 2026 (about 5 December) and March–April 2027 (about 5 April and 5 May), USACE via USDA AgTransport","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8"},{"indicator":"Illinois Production Cost Report, anhydrous ammonia distributor ask, 13 and 27 November 2026 (USDA AMS)","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3195.pdf"},{"indicator":"Illinois topsoil moisture, weeks ending 8 to 22 November 2026 (USDA NASS Crop Progress)","source_url":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/node/2179"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"locks27-november-at-or-above-36600-spring-2027-inside-range","signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","statement":"If upbound ammonia through Locks 27 in November 2026 is at or above 36,600 short tons, the 2018–2025 November low, then the fall programme was supplied in a November window that opened after soils cooled, and upbound ammonia through Locks 27 stays inside its 2018–2026 ranges in spring 2027: at or below 52,900 short tons in March and at or below 30,000 in April, as after the warm, dry fall of 2024 (30,040 in March and 14,000 in April 2025).","mechanism":"DROUGHT","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, November 2026, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, release expected about 5 December 2026)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":">=","value":36600}},{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, March 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 April 2027)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":52900}},{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, April 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 May 2027)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":30000}}],"horizon_date":"2027-05-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"locks27-november-below-36600-illinois-river-at-or-above-6000-spring-inside-range","signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","statement":"If upbound ammonia through Locks 27 in November 2026 is below 36,600 short tons while its Illinois River component is at or above 6,000, the 2018–2025 November low on that river, then the low count measures terminals filled by the record September (92,020 short tons) rather than a curtailed window, and spring 2027 at Locks 27 stays inside its 2018–2026 ranges: at or below 52,900 short tons in March and at or below 30,000 in April.","mechanism":"DROUGHT","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, November 2026, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, release expected about 5 December 2026)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":"<","value":36600}},{"name":"Upbound ammonia through the Illinois River lock, November 2026, short tons: the Illinois Waterway component of the Locks 27 count (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 December 2026)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":">=","value":6000}},{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, March 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 April 2027)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":52900}},{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, April 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 May 2027)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":30000}}],"horizon_date":"2027-05-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"illinois-river-november-below-6000-and-locks27-below-36600-spring-above-range","signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","statement":"If upbound ammonia in November 2026 is below 6,000 short tons through the Illinois River lock and below 36,600 through Locks 27, both under their 2018–2025 November lows, then fall application was deferred, as the trade-press claim states, and spring 2027 at Locks 27 runs above its 2018–2026 highs: above 52,900 short tons in March and above 30,000 in April, up to the demonstrated monthly maximum of 92,020 (September 2026).","mechanism":"DROUGHT","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Upbound ammonia through the Illinois River lock, November 2026, short tons: the Illinois Waterway component of the Locks 27 count (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 December 2026)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":"<","value":6000}},{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, November 2026, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, release expected about 5 December 2026)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":"<","value":36600}},{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, March 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 April 2027)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":">","value":52900}},{"name":"Upbound ammonia through Locks 27, April 2027, short tons (USACE via USDA AgTransport, about 5 May 2027)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/4pdq-r8e8","series_key":"lock27-ammonia-up-tons","threshold":{"op":">","value":30000}}],"horizon_date":"2027-05-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"cvr-partners","name":"CVR Partners, LP","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325311 Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://www.cvrpartners.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1425292/000142529226000033/cvi-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"For the three months ended September 30, 2026, ammonia sales prices increased by 20% due to strong fall demand and limited supply in the domestic inland ammonia market, combined with changes in market conditions described below"},"reasoning":"The third-quarter 2026 filing attributes a 20 % rise in ammonia prices to strong fall demand and tight inland supply, and the partnership's 10-K places one of its two plants at East Dubuque, Illinois (1,075 t/day ammonia). Inferred: a fall window narrowed by warm, dry soils would defer part of that plant's local ammonia sales to spring 2027 or into storage. The filing predates the late-October drying and does not discuss it.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-uan28-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"cf-industries","name":"CF Industries Holdings, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325311 Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://www.cfindustries.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324404/000132440426000007/cf-20251231.htm","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Weather conditions that delay or disrupt field work during the planting, growing, harvesting or application periods may cause agricultural customers to use different forms of nitrogen fertilizer, which may adversely affect demand for the forms that we sell or may impede farmers from applying our fertilizers until the following application period, resulting in lower seasonal demand for our products"},"reasoning":"The 10-K names this exact mechanism: weather that blocks application moves demand to another product or to the next application period. CF's own site shows barge shipments of ammonia on the inland system and an ammonia terminal at Cordova, Illinois, on the Mississippi. Inferred: a short Illinois fall shifts CF tons and terminal fill into spring 2027; the Illinois share of CF sales is not disclosed.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","lock27-ammonia-up-tons","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"lsb-industries","name":"LSB Industries, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325311 Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://lsbindustries.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/60714/000119312526437807/lxu-20260930.htm","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"We believe this will support strong fertilizer application rates and we anticipate robust nitrogen demand through the fall 2026 and spring 2027 fertilizer application season."},"reasoning":"The 10-Q filed on 29 October 2026 forecasts robust nitrogen demand through the fall 2026 and spring 2027 seasons, and the company's site says its Pryor, Oklahoma plant has direct rail access to the Corn Belt. Inferred: a dry Illinois fall that compresses application tests the fall half of that forecast and pushes tons toward spring. LSB does not break out Illinois volumes.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-uan28-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"koch-fertilizer","name":"Koch Fertilizer, LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325311 Nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing","website":"https://kochfertilizer.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://kochfertilizer.com/products/agricultural","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"We provide 82-0-0 anhydrous ammonia to fertilizer distributors and retailers around the world. And with six North American plants, an extensive terminal network and transportation options, you can rely on us to keep up with demand."},"reasoning":"The page shows Koch selling anhydrous ammonia to distributors and retailers from six North American plants and a terminal network, and offering the CENTURO nitrification inhibitor for ammonia on the same page. Inferred: Koch sits on both sides of the window, with fewer fall ammonia tons pulled if soils stay warm, but more inhibitor demand if farmers apply early anyway. Illinois volumes and plant locations serving Illinois are not shown.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","lock27-ammonia-up-tons","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"nutrien","name":"Nutrien Ltd.","country":"CA","sector":"NAICS 424910 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.nutrien.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.nutrien.com/about/our-business/retail","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Retail locations have on-site containment and storage for all major fertilizers such as ammonia, urea, liquid UAN, potash, and phosphate."},"reasoning":"The page shows that Nutrien's retail locations store ammonia, urea and UAN; Nutrien Ag Solutions holds a retail seat on the Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association board. Inferred: Illinois stores carrying priced fall ammonia would hold it longer or switch customers to spring, urea or UAN if the window narrows. Not shown: how many Illinois locations, or their inventory; separately, Nutrien has indefinitely shut its Trinidad nitrogen plant, which removes one import source.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-urea-usd-st","il-uan28-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"trammo","name":"Trammo, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424690 Other chemical and allied products merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.trammo.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.trammo.com/anhydrous-ammonia","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Trammo was founded in 1965 to trade ammonia and has grown to be the largest independent global trader in the world, with a market share of more than 20% of the seaborne global ammonia market."},"reasoning":"The page shows Trammo as a seaborne ammonia trader, and its locations page lists terminal companies at Meredosia and Niota, Illinois, on the Illinois and Mississippi rivers. Inferred: imported ammonia moved upriver to those terminals depends on fall drawdown, so a slow Illinois fall leaves tanks fuller into winter. The page does not say what the Illinois terminals hold or that imports feed them.","series_keys":["lock27-ammonia-up-tons","il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","il-anhydrous-usd-st"]}]},{"slug":"yara-north-america","name":"Yara North America, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424910 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.yara.us/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.yara.us/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Leader in Crop Nutrition, Ammonia and Essential Industrial Solutions"},"reasoning":"The page shows only that Yara's U.S. arm sells crop nutrition and ammonia; it is a member of The Fertilizer Institute. Inferred: as a supplier of imported nitrogen into North America it competes with domestic plants for spring 2027 tons if Illinois fall demand slips. Nothing on the page ties Yara to Illinois, the Mississippi, or this season.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-urea-usd-st","lock27-ammonia-up-tons"]}]},{"slug":"growmark","name":"GROWMARK, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.growmark.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.growmark.com/what-we-do/logistics","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Reliable access to 230 pressurized trailers through three tank and truck centers, helping meet seasonal and year-round transportation demands across Illinois and Iowa."},"reasoning":"The page shows GROWMARK Logistics moving anhydrous ammonia by pressurized trailer across Illinois and Iowa, with load coordinators for peak seasons. Inferred: a window that opens late concentrates NH3 hauling into fewer November days or moves it to spring 2027, for GROWMARK and the FS cooperatives it supplies. Trailer utilisation and FS inventory are not shown.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons"]}]},{"slug":"chs-inc","name":"CHS Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.chsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823277/000082327725000038/chscp-20250831.htm","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"For example, our ag retail business generally experiences higher volumes and revenues during the spring planting and fall harvest seasons and our agronomy business generally experiences higher volumes and revenues during the spring planting season."},"reasoning":"The 10-K shows CHS ag retail peaking in the fall season, and the same filing describes its CF Nitrogen investment and supply agreement; CHS Elburn holds an Illinois retail seat on the IFCA board. Inferred: Illinois retail fall nitrogen sales would slip if soils stay warm and dry. Not shown: CHS's Illinois ammonia volumes or any 2026 comment on the window.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"the-andersons","name":"The Andersons, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424910 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.andersonsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://investors.andersonsinc.com/2026-11-03-The-Andersons,-Inc-Reports-Third-Quarter-Results","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Large harvested corn acreage should support demand for fall fertilizer applications, although high input costs could influence purchasing decisions."},"reasoning":"The 3 November 2026 results release counts on fall fertilizer applications for the fourth quarter and flags high input costs as a risk. Inferred: dry, warm soils in the eastern corn belt (Indiana moved into D1 in late October) are a second risk to those fall tons. The release does not mention soil moisture, and the company's plant nutrient footprint is mostly east of Illinois.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-urea-usd-st","il-uan28-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"ehler-brothers","name":"Ehler Bros. Co.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424910 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.ehlerbros.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ehlerbros.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"We can apply fertilizer within a 50-mile radius of our locations!"},"reasoning":"The page shows a custom fertilizer applicator with a fertilizer plant at Thomasboro, Illinois; the firm holds a retail district seat on the IFCA board. Inferred: an east-central Illinois applicator depends on the fall ammonia window for equipment and crew utilisation, so a late or short window compresses its work. The page does not mention anhydrous ammonia or 2026 conditions.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","il-tavg-f"]}]},{"slug":"kirby-corporation","name":"Kirby Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://kirbycorp.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/56047/000119312526054016/kex-20251231.htm","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Of the 1,105 inland tank barges currently operated, 851 are petrochemical and refined petroleum products barges, 157 are black oil barges, 87 are pressure barges and 10 are refrigerated anhydrous ammonia barges."},"reasoning":"The 10-K shows Kirby operating refrigerated anhydrous ammonia barges on the inland system, and agricultural chemicals were 3 % of marine revenue in 2026 (second-quarter 10-Q). Inferred: upbound ammonia at Locks 27 hit 92,020 short tons in September 2026; a short fall window could slow the next round of upbound fill. Whether Kirby moved those Locks 27 tons is not shown.","series_keys":["lock27-ammonia-up-tons","il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons"]}]},{"slug":"union-pacific","name":"Union Pacific Railroad","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.up.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Fertilizer movements originate in the Gulf Coast region, Midwest, Western U.S., and Canada (through interline access) for delivery to major agricultural users in those areas as well as abroad."},"reasoning":"The 10-K shows Union Pacific hauling fertilizer from the Gulf, the Midwest and Canada to farm users. Inferred: if fall application is cut short, rail fertilizer car demand bunches into the spring 2027 season instead. Illinois fertilizer carloads and any ammonia tank-car share are not shown.","series_keys":["lock27-fertilizer-up-tons","il-anhydrous-usd-st"]}]},{"slug":"sunoco-lp","name":"Sunoco LP","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 486910 Pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products","website":"https://www.sunocolp.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sunocolp.com/segments/pipelines","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Sunoco LP’s midstream operations include a network of over 14,000 miles of pipelines spanning 16 states, distributing crude oil, refined products, renewable fuels, ammonia, and specialty liquids."},"reasoning":"The page shows Sunoco's pipelines carry ammonia; CF Industries states that two of its plants and ten terminals are tied into the Sunoco ammonia pipeline. Inferred: the pipeline is the alternative to upbound barges for moving ammonia into the corn belt, so its throughput timing shifts with the same window. The route through or near Illinois is not shown.","series_keys":["lock27-ammonia-up-tons","il-anhydrous-usd-st"]}]},{"slug":"corteva","name":"Corteva, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325320 Pesticide and other agricultural chemical manufacturing","website":"https://www.corteva.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/field-crop-production/considerations-for-fall-application-of-anhydrous-ammonia.html","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"The most common inhibitor in use over the past decades is nitrapyrin, known commonly by its Corteva trade name N-Serve®."},"reasoning":"The University of Illinois guidance on fall ammonia names Corteva's N-Serve as the most common nitrification inhibitor, and recommends an inhibitor with fall application. Inferred: warm soils that tempt early application raise the value of an inhibitor, so Corteva's inhibitor sales may gain. Sales of N-Serve in Illinois this fall are not shown.","series_keys":["il-tavg-f","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"pivot-bio","name":"Pivot Bio, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 541714 Research and development in biotechnology","website":"https://www.pivotbio.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.pivotbio.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Pivot Bio is dedicated to supporting farmers with products that optimize crop production through specifically timed and placed nitrogen delivery."},"reasoning":"The page shows Pivot Bio selling microbial nitrogen delivered in season, which is a partial substitute for nitrogen applied the previous fall. Inferred: Illinois acres that miss fall ammonia move to a spring programme, where microbial products compete for part of the rate. Adoption in Illinois and any link to this season are not shown.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"cobank","name":"CoBank, ACB","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 522298 All other nondepository credit intermediation","website":"https://www.cobank.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cobank.com/about","date":"2026-11-09","quote":"Our customers include agribusinesses and food companies, rural electric and water, telecommunications and digital infrastructure providers, Farm Credit associations and energy companies that serve rural communities nationwide."},"reasoning":"The standing About page lists agribusinesses and Farm Credit associations among CoBank's customers, which places it as a lender to the farm-supply side of the chain. Inferred: farm-supply cooperatives that bought fall ammonia at about 981 USD per short ton and cannot apply it carry that inventory, and the borrowing behind it, into spring 2027. Whether CoBank finances any named Illinois retailer is not shown.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st"]}]},{"slug":"illinois-fertilizer-chemical-association","name":"Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ifca.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ifca.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"The quick version: wait until 4-inch soil temps are consistently below 50°F and trending colder."},"reasoning":"In a post dated 23 October 2026 the association, which represents Illinois fertilizer retailers and applicators, told members it was still too early for fall anhydrous ammonia. Inferred: its guidance sets the start of the retail application window that this signal tracks. Its membership size is not shown on the page.","series_keys":["il-tavg-f","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct","il-anhydrous-usd-st"]}]},{"slug":"the-fertilizer-institute","name":"The Fertilizer Institute","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.tfi.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.tfi.org/advocacy/our-issues/transportation/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Protect the safety and viability of shipping for all hazardous materials products including anhydrous ammonia especially by rail and continue to ensure liability remains with carriers where risks are directly under their control."},"reasoning":"The page shows TFI lobbying on rail, waterway and port transport of fertilizer, including anhydrous ammonia. Inferred: a fall-to-spring shift in Illinois application bunches spring 2027 rail and barge demand, which is where its transport policy work bites. Nothing on the page refers to Illinois or this fall.","series_keys":["lock27-fertilizer-up-tons","lock27-ammonia-up-tons"]}]},{"slug":"university-of-illinois-urbana-champaign","name":"University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 611310 Colleges, universities, and professional schools","website":"https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/field-crop-production/considerations-for-fall-application-of-anhydrous-ammonia.html","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Our recommendation for fall ammonia application in Illinois is to wait until soil temperatures are below 50°F and use a nitrification inhibitor."},"reasoning":"The Department of Crop Sciences publishes the 50 °F rule that retailers and farmers use to open the fall ammonia window, and its Extension service ran a fall 2026 programme on it. Inferred: the rule converts a warm, dry fall into a shorter application window. The page is from 2024 and gives no 2026 readings.","series_keys":["il-tavg-f","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"illinois-state-water-survey","name":"Illinois State Water Survey","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 541715 Research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences","website":"https://warm.isws.illinois.edu/warm/soil/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ifca.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"4-inch bare soil temperatures across Illinois, courtesy of the Illinois State Water Survey."},"reasoning":"The retailers' association publishes the Water Survey's daily 4-inch soil temperatures as the gauge for the 50 °F rule. Inferred: its network readings decide, in practice, when Illinois applicators start fall ammonia. The Survey's own data terms were not read, and its readings are not carried as a series here.","series_keys":["il-tavg-f","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"illinois-nutrient-research-education-council","name":"Illinois Nutrient Research & Education Council","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 541715 Research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences","website":"https://www.illinoisnrec.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.illinoisnrec.org/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Starting in January of 2025, the assessment on bulk fertilizer sold in Illinois was raised from 75-cents per ton to $1 dollar per ton."},"reasoning":"The page shows the council is funded by a per-ton assessment on bulk fertilizer sold in Illinois. Inferred: tons shifted from fall to spring move the timing of its revenue rather than the total, and its funded research compares fall and spring ammonia (University of Illinois Extension, fall 2026). Its 2026 assessment receipts are not shown.","series_keys":["il-anhydrous-usd-st","il-topsoil-short-vshort-pct"]}]},{"slug":"us-army-corps-of-engineers","name":"U.S. Army Corps of Engineers","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 926120 Regulation and administration of transportation programs","website":"https://www.usace.army.mil/","exposures":[{"signal":"illinois-dry-fall-anhydrous-ammonia-window-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/api/views/4pdq-r8e8.json","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Data is collected from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Lock Performance Monitoring System."},"reasoning":"The dataset record shows that upbound fertilizer and ammonia tonnage at Locks 27 and on the Illinois River is recorded by the Corps' lock monitoring system. Inferred: the Corps operates the locks every upbound ammonia barge passes, so its lock availability and any closures bear on spring 2027 logistics. No 2026 closure is shown.","series_keys":["lock27-ammonia-up-tons","il-lock8-ammonia-up-tons","lock27-fertilizer-up-tons"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"An Illinois anhydrous ammonia retailer (a GROWMARK FS member, Ehler Bros., Nutrien Ag Solutions or CHS) that took the record September barge receipts above Locks 27 into terminal storage and quoted 981.11 USD per short ton on 30 October 2026: after the warmest September (73.0 °F) and October (61.9 °F) of 2015–2026 (the third warmest October since 1895 on the State Climatologist's preliminary record), with the retailers' association saying on 23 October that 4-inch soils were still too warm for fall ammonia, rain across much of the state pausing field work on 3 November, a conservation agronomist reporting applications picking up across Illinois by 5 November, topsoil 49 % short or very short on 1 November, Drought Monitor D1-or-worse at 37.7 % on 3 November, October rain at 1.80 inches inside the 2021–2025 range and October barge receipts in their normal range, does it apply its fall programme in a November window that the Climate Prediction Center expects to run warmer than normal, or reprice the tonnage and carry it to spring 2027; and what do the November lock counts (Locks 27 against 36,600–68,400 short tons, of which the Illinois River component against 6,000–42,400, expected about 5 December) tell the producers (CVR Partners, Koch, CF) and the barge line (Kirby) that must place ammonia barges before the Upper Mississippi closes in early December?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Soil temperature threshold for fall anhydrous ammonia application in Illinois","value":50,"unit":"degrees Fahrenheit, 4-inch bare soil at 10 AM","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/field-crop-production/considerations-for-fall-application-of-anhydrous-ammonia.html","source_date":"2024-10-18","quote":"Our recommendation for fall ammonia application in Illinois is to wait until soil temperatures are below 50°F and use a nitrification inhibitor.","note":"Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois (Fontes, Jones, Nafziger), 18 October 2024, read from the collector's local copy (sha256 2c855724…66bd). The same text specifies the measurement: 'soil temperatures at a 4-inch depth at 10 AM (under “hourly” data) are below 50°F'. The threshold is a recommendation, not a regulation; nitrification does not stop until 32 °F."},{"id":"K2","name":"Nitrification rate at 50 °F relative to its maximum","value":20,"unit":"percent of the maximum nitrification rate (maximum in the upper 70s °F)","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/field-crop-production/considerations-for-fall-application-of-anhydrous-ammonia.html","source_date":"2024-10-18","quote":"The nitrification rate varies with temperature, being around the maximum rate in the upper 70s and 20% of the maximum rate at 50°F.","note":"Same article. At 40 °F the rate is under 5 % of maximum; the article calls waiting for 40 °F impractical in northern and central Illinois, where it is reached only by mid-November or later. The physical reason for the window: ammonium applied into warm soil converts to nitrate, which leaches."}],"constants_total":46,"constraints_total":9,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"wet August and record-warm September 2026","to":"topsoil and Drought Monitor drying through October into early November","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L2","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"warmest September and October of 2015–2026","to":"4-inch soil temperature above 50 °F on 23 October 2026; the window's opening date between 23 October and 5 November, not measured","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L3","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"topsoil 49 % short or very short on 1 November","to":"sealing and knife-depth problems that slow or stop ammonia application","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L4","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"late or narrow fall window","to":"fall barge receipts of ammonia below prior years through October 2026","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L5","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"window opening (or not) after soils cool in November","to":"November 2026 ammonia receipts at Locks 27 against 36,600–68,400 and their Illinois River component against 6,000–42,400","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L6","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"fall 2026 weather and window","to":"Illinois distributor ask for anhydrous ammonia at 981.11 USD per short ton on 30 October 2026","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L7","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"retailers and farmers carrying fall tonnage to spring 2027","to":"spring 2027 upbound ammonia above prior springs and a fourth-quarter-to-first-quarter volume shift at producers","status":"UNTESTED"}],"alternatives_total":4,"conjectures_total":3,"trajectories_total":1,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-09","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":3,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-09","constants":46,"constraints":9,"links":7,"untested":4,"contradicted":1,"alternatives":4,"conjectures":3,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. Premium emails send the latest analysis when you join and each new one after publication; their links last seven days and need a current subscription. Files you downloaded stay yours within each source licence; downloads and API access stop when the subscription ends"}}}