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SIGNAL · Low water · 2026-09-09

Mississippi low water, barge quotes and grain flow, July–October 2026

The Mississippi River gage at St. Louis fell below zero on 7–11 September 2026. Downbound barge freight quotes peaked two weeks later at 834% of tariff, and weekly grain throughput at Locks 27 fell to a third of its July level before the October rebound.

Geography: St. Louis, Missouri / Granite City, Illinois (Locks 27). Trigger: source. Edition: The river fell below zero. Two weeks later the barge quote doubled.. Dossier: pending on 2026-10-23.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: Waterways Council, Inc. — board of directors (Carriers, shippers, ports and farm groups seated on the board; 38 organisations screened.); Waterways Council, Inc. — 2026 sponsors (Sponsor organisations linked from the home page.); Soy Transportation Coalition — members (State soybean boards, ASA, USB and ex-officio NGFA and NOPA.); USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report, 24 September 2026 (Rail tariff tables naming the Class I railroads serving St. Louis-area origins; used for the rail-to-Pacific-Northwest alternative.); Moran Shipping Agencies — port bulletins (Daily New Orleans and Mississippi River updates on pilot loading drafts.); Retained website snapshots of the first nine organisations (Organisations named in the production brief of 22 October 2026, each read on its own site.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-12-31. If the St. Louis gage height falls below 0 ft for five consecutive days again before 15 December 2026, the St. Louis downbound barge quote exceeds 700% of tariff within the following three weeks. Indicators: St. Louis gage height, daily (USGS 07010000); St. Louis downbound barge quote, weekly (USDA AMS GTR).

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-11-30. If the St. Louis gage stays above 5 ft, weekly grain throughput at Locks 27 exceeds 600,000 short tons in at least two weeks between 18 October and 30 November 2026, as harvest volume meets unrestricted drafts. Indicators: Grain through Locks 27, weekly (USACE via USDA AgTransport); St. Louis gage height, daily (USGS 07010000).

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2026-11-30. If the St. Louis gage stays above 10 ft through November, the St. Louis downbound quote returns below 500% of tariff by 30 November 2026, despite harvest demand for barges. Indicators: St. Louis downbound barge quote, weekly (USDA AMS GTR); St. Louis gage height, daily (USGS 07010000).

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Sources and reuse

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (via USDA AgTransport) — U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). Dataset metadata on AgTransport states useRestriction: Unrestricted. (policy, checked 2026-10-23)

USDA Agricultural Marketing Service — U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). The Grain Transportation Report datasets are described by USDA as non-confidential and not copyrighted; attribution requested. (policy, checked 2026-10-23)

U.S. Geological Survey — U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). USGS-authored data and information are in the public domain; credit requested. (policy, checked 2026-10-23)