DOSSIER · Low water · St. Louis, Missouri / Granite City, Illinois (Locks 27) · reviewed 2026-10-23
The river fell below zero. Two weeks later the barge quote doubled.
When the St. Louis gage falls below zero, who pays for the barge, who loses the cargo, and who gains an alternative origin?
Edition · Data sheet · Sample · Get it · Preview: chain · Constants · Conjectures
INDEPENDENT REVIEW · PENDING
Awaiting independent review. Written by claude-code on 2026-10-23. Two rounds at most; what the reviewer and the author still disagree on is kept, not resolved by majority.
Review notes, as written
Drafted from the published edition and ten sourced constants. Needs an independent reviewer (NanoCorp agent or Codex) on the constants' readings, the C2 reference episode and the trajectory ranges before REVIEWED.
What this dossier holds
10 constants read verbatim from their sources, 6 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 6-link causal chain with a status per link (2 untested, 0 contradicted), 3 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 4 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 1 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Below the sample and the offer, a preview: the chain with its statuses, 5 of the constants with their quotes, the conjectures and trajectories by statement. The rest is the product.
A sample of the data
The last 5 points of 4 of the 9 series. Free downloads carry the last 12 points. Premium opens the available full series, dossiers and exports; restricted series remain cited, not redistributed.
| Series | Family · unit | latest | in total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn through Locks 27, weekly | Flow · short tons | 111,600 | 90,044 | 60,500 | 78,800 | 69,900 | 16 |
| Grain through Locks 27, weekly | Flow · short tons | 178,400 | 153,944 | 84,300 | 103,900 | 349,600 | 16 |
| Other grain through Locks 27, weekly | Flow · short tons | 0 | 0 | 1,600 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Soybeans through Locks 27, weekly | Flow · short tons | 54,000 | 57,600 | 20,600 | 25,100 | 279,700 | 16 |
Periods run from 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-17 on the first row; hover a value for its period. Downloads and provenance: data sheet →
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Preview: the chain
From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The evidence behind each link, and what validated it, are in the export.
- L1 · PHYSICALConsistentlag 0–7 days
St. Louis gage height loading draft and barges per tow
As the gage falls, operators cut the loading draft and the number of barges per tow; on this reach the 2024 episode cut the draft to 10 ft and tows by up to a quarter.
- L2 · ECONOMICObservedlag 7–21 days
tons per tow quote per ton
Fewer tons per tow raise the cost of moving each ton; the St. Louis quote peaked at 834.7% of tariff thirteen days after the stage minimum.
- L3 · LOGISTICALObservedlag 14–28 days
draft limits and quote grain through Locks 27
Weekly grain through Locks 27 fell from 703,800 to 84,300 short tons, the trough three weeks after the stage minimum; the pre-harvest calendar shares the explanation.
- L4 · PHYSICALObservedlag 7–21 days
October rain and discharge stage recovery and quote easing
October rains lifted the gage back to 10.18 ft and the quote eased 19.3% from its peak within three weeks.
- L5 · ECONOMICUntestedlag 0–30 days
quote per ton interior basis and importer landed cost
A higher quote widens the gap between interior bids and Gulf prices; which party absorbs it depends on contract terms. The Atlas holds no basis series yet.
- L6 · BEHAVIOURALUntestedlag 14–60 days
Gulf freight at a peak origin substitution by importers
Importers with Brazilian supply available from August to January can shift origin while Gulf freight is at a peak; no inspection series is in the Atlas yet.
Preview: 5 of the 10 constants
Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source. 5 more, and the 6 bounded constraints recomputed from them, are in the export.
| Id | Constant | Value | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K1 | Cargo lost per foot of draft, per barge “Each foot of reduced depth results in 150-200 fewer short tons (5,000-6,700 bushels of soybeans) being loaded per barge.” | 150 short tons per barge per foot | physical | source, 2022-09-28 |
K2 | Typical covered hopper barge load “A typical barge can be loaded with 1,500 short tons of freight (50,000 bushels of soybeans).” | 1,500 short tons | capacity | source, 2022-09-28 |
K3 | Tow-size cut, St. Louis to the Gulf, low-water episode of September 2024 “From St. Louis to the Gulf, tow size is down 14-25 percent (or 5-10 barges per tow), and transit delays of 1 to 2 days are expected.” | 25 percent of normal barges per tow | capacity | source, 2024-09-12 |
K4 | Loading draft, St. Louis to Greenville, same episode “Most operators have reduced drafts to 9.5 feet on the Ohio River; to 10 feet from St. Louis, MO, to Greenville, MS; and to 10.5 feet from Greenville, MS, to the Gulf.” | 10 feet | physical | source, 2024-09-12 |
K5 | Share of US corn exports moved by barge, 2020 “Barges moved 53 percent of corn, 53 percent of soybeans, and 28 percent of wheat destined for export in 2020.” | 53 percent | supply | source, 2024-01-01 |
Preview: what the author concludes
4 conjectures by statement. Their quantities, the checks run against the constraints, what would prove each wrong, and the 3 alternative explanations with their discriminators are in the export.
- J1 · LOCAL · confidence medium
A second run of five consecutive days below 0 ft at St. Louis before 15 December lifts the southbound quote above 700% of tariff within three weeks.
- J2 · CROSS SECTOR · confidence medium
At the peak quote, a barge loaded one foot lighter earned about 21,700 USD more than a full barge did at the July quote: the barge line's revenue per barge rose while the cargo per barge fell.
- J3 · CROSS SECTOR · confidence medium
The throughput collapse exceeded what draft and tow cuts can explain: capacity fell to about two thirds of normal, throughput to twelve percent of its July peak; the remainder is the pre-harvest calendar, not the river.
- J4 · CROSS GEOGRAPHY · confidence low
While the St. Louis quote sits above its November three-year average, importers in Japan, Vietnam and Egypt hold a Brazilian alternative open until January; US Gulf corn inspections in November run below their three-year average.
T1 · 2026-10-18 → 2026-12-31
St. Louis quote and Locks 27 grain to the end of 2026
- river-open: St. Louis gage height
>= 5by 2026-11-15 - second-low-water: St. Louis gage height
< 0by 2026-12-15
Paths by period and implications by organisation: in the export.
Machine access: /api/atlas/mississippi-low-water-2026 carries this preview, and the complete dossier with a member key. What is for sale and why →