{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","title":"Peru cancels its second anchovy season: fishmeal against soybean meal, October 2026","date":"2026-10-16","mechanism":"HEAT","geography":[{"code":"PE","name":"Peru, north-centre anchovy fishing zone","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"CL","name":"Chile (salmon aquafeed demand)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"CN","name":"China (fishmeal import destination)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"NO","name":"Norway (salmon aquafeed demand)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"XZ","name":"Niño 1+2 region, coastal eastern Pacific (0–10°S, 90°W–80°W)","latitude":-5,"longitude":-85},{"code":"EC","name":"Ecuador (shrimp aquafeed demand)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"JP","name":"Japan (fishmeal import destination)","latitude":null,"longitude":null}],"source_url":"https://www.gob.pe/institucion/produce/noticias/1457656-produce-no-autoriza-segunda-temporada-de-anchoveta-en-la-zona-norte-centro-para-proteger-la-sostenibilidad-del-recurso-y-su-pesqueria","summary":"On 16 October 2026 Peru's Production Ministry said it will not authorise a second anchovy season in the north-centre zone: IMARPE's survey 2609-10 estimates 5.12 Mt of biomass (27.9% below summer 2026) with 79% juveniles by number, under anomalously warm conditions. The weekly Niño 1+2 anomaly reached +5.4 °C in the week of 28 October; Peru exported 18.3 kt of fishmeal in August 2026 against 99.4 kt in August 2025, at an export unit value of 2,716 USD/t against 1,457. On the World Bank's new fish meal specification (from July 2026) the price rose from 2,103 USD/t in July to 2,916 in September, 6.5 times soybean meal against 5.1 in July. The warm-water link to the stock is consistent, not observed.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":177,"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","key":"fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Ratio of the World Bank Pink Sheet fish meal price to the soybean meal price, monthly nominal US$/t over US$/t (derived; the two legs are different origins, delivery terms and protein contents: fish meal 64% FOB North Germany/Bremen, soybean meal 48% FOB/CIF Rotterdam)","unit":"ratio","geography":"DE","publisher":"world-bank","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_sha256":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154","collected_at":"2026-11-03T12:16:19+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":{"op":"ratio","inputs":["fishmeal-usd-t","soymeal-usd-t"]},"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-10","value":4.969101123595506},{"period":"2025-11","value":4.364963503649635},{"period":"2025-12","value":4.5739348370927315},{"period":"2026-01","value":4.715025906735751},{"period":"2026-02","value":4.705882352941177},{"period":"2026-03","value":4.547029702970297},{"period":"2026-04","value":4.677884615384615},{"period":"2026-05","value":4.845971563981043},{"period":"2026-06","value":5.119331742243436},{"period":"2026-07","value":5.1292682926829265},{"period":"2026-08","value":6.416256157635468},{"period":"2026-09","value":6.523489932885906}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":177,"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","key":"fishmeal-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"World Bank Pink Sheet monthly price, \"Fish meal\", nominal US$, CMO Historical Data Monthly updated 2 October 2026. Specification changes: from July 2026 Herring fish meal 64% protein FOB North Germany; January 2021–June 2026 German fishmeal, Danish 64% protein, FOB Bremen; 1999–2020 German 64% EXW Hamburg (World Bank replacement series from July 2026)","unit":"US$ per metric tonne","geography":"DE","publisher":"world-bank","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_sha256":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154","collected_at":"2026-11-03T12:16:19+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-10","value":1769},{"period":"2025-11","value":1794},{"period":"2025-12","value":1825},{"period":"2026-01","value":1820},{"period":"2026-02","value":1840},{"period":"2026-03","value":1837},{"period":"2026-04","value":1946},{"period":"2026-05","value":2045},{"period":"2026-06","value":2145},{"period":"2026-07","value":2103},{"period":"2026-08","value":2605},{"period":"2026-09","value":2916}]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","key":"hamburg-fishmeal-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"BCRPData international quotations (period average), fish meal, Hamburg, US$ per tonne, monthly, series PN01649XM; BCRP metadata names Reuters as the source of the quotation (grade and delivery basis not stated)","unit":"US$ per tonne","geography":"DE","publisher":"bcrp","source_url":"https://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/series/api/PN01649XM/json/2012-1/2026-12","source_sha256":"9cc896d6fd1bcdbf85b4c1a9a42e575150ec1e19b4748de4bfcbb798cfdc6579","collected_at":"2026-11-03T13:39:35+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":774,"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","key":"nino12-sst-weekly-c","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Niño 1+2 sea surface temperature (0–10°S, 90°W–80°W, coastal Peru–Ecuador box), weekly OISST v2.1, week centred on Wednesday","unit":"°C","geography":"XZ","publisher":"noaa-cpc","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for","source_sha256":"4c285fbc49aa100712431d072251a975613aec377aeeaefea139e0193e775205","collected_at":"2026-11-03T12:16:19+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W33","value":25.1},{"period":"2026-W34","value":24.9},{"period":"2026-W35","value":25},{"period":"2026-W36","value":25.2},{"period":"2026-W37","value":25.2},{"period":"2026-W38","value":25.4},{"period":"2026-W39","value":25.6},{"period":"2026-W40","value":26},{"period":"2026-W41","value":26.1},{"period":"2026-W42","value":26.2},{"period":"2026-W43","value":26.3},{"period":"2026-W44","value":26.7}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":774,"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","key":"nino12-ssta-weekly-c","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Niño 1+2 sea surface temperature anomaly (0–10°S, 90°W–80°W, coastal Peru–Ecuador box), weekly OISST v2.1, week centred on Wednesday, base 1991–2020","unit":"°C","geography":"XZ","publisher":"noaa-cpc","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for","source_sha256":"4c285fbc49aa100712431d072251a975613aec377aeeaefea139e0193e775205","collected_at":"2026-11-03T12:16:19+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W33","value":4.1},{"period":"2026-W34","value":4},{"period":"2026-W35","value":4.2},{"period":"2026-W36","value":4.4},{"period":"2026-W37","value":4.6},{"period":"2026-W38","value":4.7},{"period":"2026-W39","value":4.9},{"period":"2026-W40","value":5.3},{"period":"2026-W41","value":5.3},{"period":"2026-W42","value":5.2},{"period":"2026-W43","value":5.2},{"period":"2026-W44","value":5.4}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":176,"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","key":"pe-fishmeal-export-unit-value-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Peru traditional exports (prices), fishery products, fish meal, monthly export price in US$ per tonne, BCRPData series PN38766BM (BCRP compilation from SUNAT customs data; an export unit value, i.e. declared value over volume, not a market quotation)","unit":"US$ per tonne","geography":"PE","publisher":"bcrp","source_url":"https://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/series/api/PN38766BM/json/2012-1/2026-12","source_sha256":"96dcf7e4e0cfcf46e4b6d2386ebca48943c4737cdfcbc3cd2124a348b44f6faf","collected_at":"2026-11-03T13:41:33+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-09","value":1477.13048790105},{"period":"2025-10","value":1509.07955463932},{"period":"2025-11","value":1511.72215807338},{"period":"2025-12","value":1776.88321441617},{"period":"2026-01","value":1866.56562755004},{"period":"2026-02","value":1903.23910695474},{"period":"2026-03","value":1980.1813758004},{"period":"2026-04","value":2139.48965654982},{"period":"2026-05","value":2069.27171835611},{"period":"2026-06","value":2226.70853453179},{"period":"2026-07","value":2416.96461427063},{"period":"2026-08","value":2715.89603765867}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":176,"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","key":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","family":"FLOW","variable":"Peru traditional exports (volume), fishery products, fish meal, monthly volume in thousand tonnes, BCRPData series PN38765BM (BCRP compilation from SUNAT customs data)","unit":"thousand tonnes","geography":"PE","publisher":"bcrp","source_url":"https://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/series/api/PN38765BM/json/2012-1/2026-12","source_sha256":"4147ac9594cce2ac1fd8169aa1cb4f1b7c59675e3d88be20b111ed7bbfebab34","collected_at":"2026-11-03T12:16:20+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-09","value":129.4932085},{"period":"2025-10","value":31.36714},{"period":"2025-11","value":10.667715},{"period":"2025-12","value":66.473215},{"period":"2026-01","value":125.4845505},{"period":"2026-02","value":118.39142},{"period":"2026-03","value":92.01813},{"period":"2026-04","value":42.639869},{"period":"2026-05","value":23.20466},{"period":"2026-06","value":51.42382},{"period":"2026-07","value":33.00561},{"period":"2026-08","value":18.25014}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":177,"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","key":"soymeal-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"World Bank Pink Sheet monthly price, \"Soybean meal\", nominal US$, CMO Historical Data Monthly updated 2 October 2026. Specification changes: from January 2025 U.S. soymeal 48% protein FOB Rotterdam; 2021–2024 Brazil soybean pellets 48% CIF Rotterdam; 1999–2020 Brazilian pellets 48% CIF Rotterdam","unit":"US$ per metric tonne","geography":"NL","publisher":"world-bank","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_sha256":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154","collected_at":"2026-11-03T12:16:19+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-10","value":356},{"period":"2025-11","value":411},{"period":"2025-12","value":399},{"period":"2026-01","value":386},{"period":"2026-02","value":391},{"period":"2026-03","value":404},{"period":"2026-04","value":416},{"period":"2026-05","value":422},{"period":"2026-06","value":419},{"period":"2026-07","value":410},{"period":"2026-08","value":406},{"period":"2026-09","value":447}]}],"edition":{"title":"A coastal El Niño at +5.4 °C shut Peru's second anchovy season; in August Peru shipped four fifths less fishmeal than a year earlier, at an export value per tonne 86 percent higher.","lead":"On 16 October 2026 Peru withheld its second north-centre anchovy season: IMARPE found 5.12 million tonnes of fish, 79 percent juveniles, under a Niño 1+2 anomaly that reached +5.4 °C in the week of 28 October. Peru shipped 18.3 kt of fishmeal in August against 99.4 kt a year earlier, at a declared export value of 2,715.90 USD/t against 1,456.81. The World Bank fish meal price reached 2,916 USD/t in September, its third month on a new specification.","published_at":"2026-11-03","vectors":["nino12-ssta-weekly-c","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"nino12-ssta-weekly-c","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":5.4},{"id":"F3","series":"nino12-ssta-weekly-c","stat":"value","period":"2023-W29","value":3.5},{"id":"F4","series":"nino12-ssta-weekly-c","stat":"value","period":"2015-W29","value":2.7},{"id":"F5","series":"nino12-ssta-weekly-c","stat":"value","period":"2026-W20","value":1.9},{"id":"F10","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":2916},{"id":"F11","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-09","value":1769},{"id":"F12","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":2103},{"id":"F13","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":2605},{"id":"F15","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2023-03","value":1720},{"id":"F16","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2023-08","value":1883},{"id":"F18","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2024-04","value":1702},{"id":"F19","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2015-10","value":1520},{"id":"F20","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2016-03","value":1444},{"id":"F21","series":"fishmeal-usd-t","stat":"max","period":null,"value":2916},{"id":"F22","series":"soymeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":447},{"id":"F23","series":"soymeal-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-09","value":358},{"id":"F26","series":"fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":6.523489932885906},{"id":"F27","series":"fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","stat":"value","period":"2025-09","value":4.941340782122905},{"id":"F28","series":"fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":5.1292682926829265},{"id":"F29","series":"fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","stat":"value","period":"2025-07","value":5.140298507462687},{"id":"F32","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":18.25014},{"id":"F33","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2025-08","value":99.35266},{"id":"F34","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2024-08","value":124.872355},{"id":"F36","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2023-05","value":6.02137},{"id":"F37","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2023-09","value":35.63583},{"id":"F39","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2023-11","value":7.498155},{"id":"F40","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2023-12","value":33.04367},{"id":"F41","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2024-01","value":70.775053},{"id":"F42","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2024-02","value":127.665806},{"id":"F44","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2026-01","value":125.4845505},{"id":"F45","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2026-04","value":42.639869},{"id":"F46","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":33.00561},{"id":"F51","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2026-05","value":23.20466},{"id":"F52","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2025-05","value":65.668205},{"id":"F53","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":51.42382},{"id":"F54","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2025-06","value":184.145355},{"id":"F55","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2025-07","value":159.16682},{"id":"F56","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2024-05","value":65.367645},{"id":"F57","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2024-06","value":166.222315},{"id":"F58","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2024-07","value":217.4874177},{"id":"F59","series":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","stat":"value","period":"2024-04","value":14.06828},{"id":"F60","series":"pe-fishmeal-export-unit-value-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-08","value":1456.80793922837},{"id":"F61","series":"pe-fishmeal-export-unit-value-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":2715.89603765867}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Niño 1+2 sea surface temperature anomaly, weekly, NOAA CPC (the week of 24 February 2027 decides the branch)","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for"},{"indicator":"IMARPE summer 2027 survey and the PRODUCE resolution on the 2027 north-centre first season","source_url":"https://www.gob.pe/produce"},{"indicator":"Fish meal and soybean meal prices, monthly, World Bank Pink Sheet","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"pe-fishmeal-exports-at-most-40-kt-to-march-2027","signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","statement":"If PRODUCE authorises no north-centre anchovy fishing for fishmeal before 1 April 2027, Peru's monthly fishmeal exports (BCRP, from customs data) stay at or below 40 thousand tonnes in every month from November 2026 to March 2027, inside the 2023 band of 6.0 to 35.6 kt, because the 2026 first season yields at most about 117,000 tonnes of meal and oil and the south zone adds at most about 62,000.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"HIGH","indicators":[{"name":"Peru fishmeal exports, monthly volume, November 2026 to March 2027 (BCRP PN38765BM)","source_url":"https://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/series/api/PN38765BM/json/2012-1/2026-12","series_key":"pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":40}},{"name":"PRODUCE resolution authorising the 2027 north-centre first season, dated on or after 1 April 2027","source_url":"https://www.gob.pe/produce","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-05-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"fishmeal-at-least-2916-if-nino12-still-warm-in-february","signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","statement":"If the weekly Niño 1+2 anomaly in the week containing 24 February 2027 is still at or above +2.0 °C, the World Bank fish meal price for March 2027 is at or above 2,916 USD/t, its September 2026 level, because the summer survey and the end-of-March decision fall inside the warm period and no north-centre fish reaches the market before April; the dossier sets no ceiling on the upper end.","mechanism":"HEAT","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Niño 1+2 SST anomaly, weekly, week of 24 February 2027 (NOAA CPC)","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for","series_key":"nino12-ssta-weekly-c","threshold":{"op":">=","value":2}},{"name":"World Bank Pink Sheet fish meal price, March 2027","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","series_key":"fishmeal-usd-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":2916}}],"horizon_date":"2027-04-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"fishmeal-2605-to-2916-if-nino12-cools-by-february","signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","statement":"If the weekly Niño 1+2 anomaly in the week containing 24 February 2027 is below +1.0 °C, the World Bank fish meal price for March 2027 eases but stays between 2,605 and 2,916 USD/t, its August and September 2026 levels, because a cooling sea brings forward the prospect of a season, not the fish: no north-centre catch reaches the market before a resolution at the end of March or in April, and in 2023-24 the price gave back under 10 percent before new supply. A reading between +1.0 and +2.0 °C leaves both this and the warm hypothesis unresolved.","mechanism":"HEAT","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Niño 1+2 SST anomaly, weekly, week of 24 February 2027 (NOAA CPC)","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for","series_key":"nino12-ssta-weekly-c","threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"World Bank Pink Sheet fish meal price, March 2027, floor","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","series_key":"fishmeal-usd-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":2605}},{"name":"World Bank Pink Sheet fish meal price, March 2027, ceiling","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","series_key":"fishmeal-usd-t","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":2916}}],"horizon_date":"2027-04-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"produce-peru","name":"Ministerio de la Producción (PRODUCE)","country":"PE","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses","website":"https://www.gob.pe/produce","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.gob.pe/institucion/produce/noticias/1457656-produce-no-autoriza-segunda-temporada-de-anchoveta-en-la-zona-norte-centro-para-proteger-la-sostenibilidad-del-recurso-y-su-pesqueria","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"El Ministerio de la Producción (PRODUCE) no autorizará una segunda temporada de pesca de anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) en la zona norte-centro del litoral peruano"},"reasoning":"The note shows PRODUCE taking the decision that is the hook of this signal: no second north-centre anchovy season in 2026. It is the regulator, not a market participant; whether and when it reopens fishing is the main switch for every exposure below.","series_keys":["nino12-ssta-weekly-c","nino12-sst-weekly-c","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"imarpe","name":"Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE)","country":"PE","sector":"NACE M72.19 Other research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering","website":"https://www.gob.pe/imarpe","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.gob.pe/institucion/produce/noticias/1457656-produce-no-autoriza-segunda-temporada-de-anchoveta-en-la-zona-norte-centro-para-proteger-la-sostenibilidad-del-recurso-y-su-pesqueria","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"IMARPE identificó condiciones oceanográficas cálidas anómalas asociadas a cambios en la distribución de la anchoveta, con una mayor concentración cerca de la costa, desplazamiento hacia el sur y una marcada profundización de los cardúmenes."},"reasoning":"The PRODUCE note attributes the scientific basis of the cancellation (survey 2609-10, warm anomalous conditions, juveniles) to IMARPE. Its next survey is the indicator that decides the 2027 first season; the link from the Niño 1+2 warming to the stock is stated by IMARPE, not measured in this signal's series.","series_keys":["nino12-ssta-weekly-c","nino12-sst-weekly-c","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"sociedad-nacional-de-pesqueria","name":"Sociedad Nacional de Pesquería (SNP)","country":"PE","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://snp.org.pe/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gestion.pe/economia/peru-cierra-la-pesca-de-anchoveta-que-paises-dependen-mas-de-su-harina-de-pescado-noticia/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Fuentes de la Sociedad Nacional de Pesquería (SNP) consultadas por Gestión, estimaron que, tomando como referencia una cuota promedio de 2 millones de toneladas de anchoveta para la segunda temporada de pesca en la zona centro-norte, se dejarían de producir alrededor de 500,000 toneladas de harina de pescado."},"reasoning":"The article (28 October 2026) reports the producers' association estimating that the cancelled season removes about 500,000 t of fishmeal output, on an assumed 2 Mt quota. That figure is the SNP's estimate, not a measured loss. On 17 October, Gestión also reported the SNP warning of a stoppage until 2027 and asking for tax measures to give its members liquidity. Its members include TASA, Austral, Copeinca, Exalmar, Diamante and Hayduk.","series_keys":["pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t","nino12-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"tasa","name":"Tecnológica de Alimentos S.A. (TASA)","country":"PE","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (fishmeal and fish oil)","website":"https://www.tasa.com.pe/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.tasa.com.pe/productos-y-servicios/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Somos el mayor productor y exportador de harina y aceite de pescado en el Perú, con una capacidad de producción que supera las 600,000 toneladas métricas anuales de harina de pescado."},"reasoning":"The page shows TASA as Peru's largest fishmeal and fish oil producer and exporter, built on anchoveta. That the cancelled north-centre season removes its raw material until 2027 is inferred from its business; no 2026 TASA statement on the cancellation or its volumes was found.","series_keys":["pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t","nino12-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"austral-group","name":"Austral Group S.A.A.","country":"PE","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (fishmeal and fish oil)","website":"https://www.austral.com.pe/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.auss.no/media/1691/auss-q2-and-h1-2026.pdf","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"The government introduced a fishing ban from the start of May due to the high share of juveniles and the rising seawater temperature (El Niño)"},"reasoning":"Its parent's Q2 2026 report shows Austral's first 2026 season cut short by El Niño and juveniles, with raw material intake down sharply year on year. The same report says the second-season quota depended on El Niño; that it has now been cancelled is from the PRODUCE note, not this report.","series_keys":["pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t","nino12-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"pesquera-exalmar","name":"Pesquera Exalmar S.A.A.","country":"PE","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (fishmeal and fish oil)","website":"https://www.exalmar.com.pe/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gestion.pe/economia/empresas/efecto-precio-de-la-harina-y-el-aceite-de-pescado-impulsa-a-exalmar-en-que-invirtio-noticia/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"el precio promedio de la harina de pescado se incrementó en 39.4% y el del aceite de pescado en 32.9%, alzas lo suficientemente contundentes como para compensar una dinámica operativa adversa: los volúmenes vendidos de harina cayeron 22.1% y los de aceite, 6.1%, en un contexto de menor disponibilidad de biomasa."},"reasoning":"The article, citing Exalmar's SMV filing for Q1 2026, shows the two-sided exposure: higher fishmeal prices offset lower volumes from scarce biomass. With no north-centre season until 2027, volumes are inferred to fall further; whether prices can still offset this is not shown.","series_keys":["pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t","nino12-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"copeinca","name":"Corporación Pesquera Inca S.A.C. (Copeinca)","country":"PE","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (fishmeal and fish oil)","website":"https://www.copeinca.com.pe/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gestion.pe/g-de-gestion/reportaje/copeinca-un-ano-despues-de-su-venta-a-cooke-el-norte-de-la-pesquera-peruana-y-su-expansion-regional-noticia/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"La empresa ya trazó una hoja de ruta a dos años, mientras se prepara para un nuevo fenómeno El Niño."},"reasoning":"The interview (March 2026, updated June 2026) shows Copeinca, a large anchovy fleet and plant operator, preparing for El Niño; it produced 220,000 t of fishmeal in 2025. Its loss of 2026 second-season raw material is inferred; no post-cancellation statement was found.","series_keys":["pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t","nino12-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"pesquera-diamante","name":"Pesquera Diamante S.A.","country":"PE","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (fishmeal and fish oil)","website":"https://www.diamante.com.pe/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.diamante.com.pe/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Planta de harina de pescado: Capacidad de proceso: 205 TM/h. Capacidad de almacenaje de Materia Prima: 2,000 TM."},"reasoning":"The site lists fishmeal plants at Callao, Malabrigo and Supe, all in the north-centre zone, plus Mollendo in the south. That the cancelled north-centre season idles most of that capacity is inferred; the southern plant may still receive southern-zone fish. No 2026 company statement was found.","series_keys":["pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t","nino12-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"pesquera-hayduk","name":"Pesquera Hayduk S.A.","country":"PE","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (fishmeal and fish oil)","website":"https://www.hayduk.com.pe/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hayduk.com.pe/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"PRODUCTOS CONSUMO HUMANO INDIRECTO Harina de pescado Aceite de pescado CONSUMO HUMANO DIRECTO Pescado congelado"},"reasoning":"The site shows fishmeal and fish oil as Hayduk's indirect-consumption products and lists plants at Coishco, Végueta, Malabrigo and Tambo de Mora, in or near the north-centre zone. Its exposure to the cancelled season is inferred from that footprint, not stated.","series_keys":["pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t","nino12-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"austevoll-seafood","name":"Austevoll Seafood ASA","country":"NO","sector":"NAICS 551112 Offices of other holding companies (pelagic fishing, fishmeal, salmon farming)","website":"https://www.auss.no/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.auss.no/media/1691/auss-q2-and-h1-2026.pdf","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"The first fishing season in Peru has been suspended since late April, with 25% of the national quota harvested"},"reasoning":"The Oslo-listed group reports Peru through Austral and states the suspended first season in its Q2 2026 results. A cancelled second season extends that gap into its Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 earnings; the size of the hit is inferred, partly offset by higher prices at its Chilean and North Atlantic units.","series_keys":["pe-fishmeal-exports-kt","fishmeal-usd-t","nino12-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"cooke","name":"Cooke Inc.","country":"CA","sector":"NAICS 551112 Offices of other holding companies (seafood, aquaculture, fishmeal)","website":"https://www.cookeseafood.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gestion.pe/g-de-gestion/reportaje/copeinca-un-ano-despues-de-su-venta-a-cooke-el-norte-de-la-pesquera-peruana-y-su-expansion-regional-noticia/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Cooke es la empresa pesquera privada más grande del mundo con presencia en 16 países. Con el negocio de harina de pescado están en Estados Unidos y ahora en Perú."},"reasoning":"The article shows Cooke as Copeinca's owner, with fishmeal in the United States (Omega Protein) and Peru. Its Peruvian earnings are inferred to fall while its US menhaden meal benefits from higher prices; that internal hedge is deduced, not shown.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"foodcorp-chile","name":"FoodCorp Chile S.A.","country":"CL","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging","website":"https://www.fcc.cl/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.auss.no/media/1691/auss-q2-and-h1-2026.pdf","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Price achievement significantly higher y-o-y ─ Frozen +84% ─ Fishmeal +54% ─ Fish oil +167%"},"reasoning":"Austevoll's Chilean pelagic unit shows much higher fishmeal and fish oil prices in Q2 2026. That a Peruvian shortfall supports its prices is inferred; the report does not attribute these prices to Peru, and Chilean catches were also weak.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"camanchaca","name":"Compañía Pesquera Camanchaca S.A.","country":"CL","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging","website":"https://www.camanchaca.cl/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://anlpubxgxwsaypiyrmec.storage.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/analisis-razonado/93711000/analisis_razonado_93711000_2026Q1.pdf","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"La división Pesca aumentó 13% registrando US$ 93,3 millones de ingresos, con mayores volúmenes de venta de harina y aceite, sumado a mayores pecios de la harina y el jurel congelado"},"reasoning":"Its Q1 2026 management analysis (a copy of the CMF filing hosted by a third party, not the company site) shows higher fishmeal prices lifting its fishing division. The link to Peru is inferred; the filing also names El Niño as a risk for northern Chilean fisheries, so it is exposed on the supply side too.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"pelagia","name":"Pelagia Holding AS","country":"NO","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (fishmeal, fish oil, pelagic food)","website":"https://www.pelagia.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://live.euronext.com/sites/default/files/company_press_releases/attachments_oslo/2026/05/12/673072_Financial%20Report%20Pelagia%20Q1%202026.pdf","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Fish oil prices have improved going into 2026 due to the lower than expected, anchovy catches in Peru the last season and for the current season."},"reasoning":"The Q1 2026 report links Pelagia's fish oil prices to weak Peruvian anchovy catches, which places this North Atlantic producer on the competing-origin side. The same report flags lower North Atlantic quotas in 2026, so its volumes are constrained too; the cancelled season is later than this report.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"triplenine","name":"TripleNine Group A/S","country":"DK","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (fishmeal and fish oil)","website":"https://www.999.dk/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.999.dk/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Our fish meal, fish oil and phospholipids provide nutritional and functional value for customers across aquaculture, agriculture and a range of other applications."},"reasoning":"The site shows a Danish fishmeal and fish oil producer selling into aquaculture, with group sites listed in Denmark and Norway and one named Lota. Higher prices from the Peruvian gap are inferred to support its margins where it has raw material; nothing on the site addresses Peru.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"omega-protein","name":"Omega Protein Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 311710 Seafood product preparation and packaging (menhaden fishmeal and oil)","website":"https://www.omegaprotein.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.omegaprotein.com/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"For more than 100 years, Omega Protein has delivered quality ingredients that improve the nutritional integrity of food, supplements and animal feed"},"reasoning":"The site shows a US menhaden-based ingredient producer, the US origin the SNP page names as an alternative to anchovy. That US menhaden meal gains from the Peruvian shortfall is inferred; no 2026 company statement was found.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]},{"slug":"skretting","name":"Skretting (Nutreco)","country":"NO","sector":"NAICS 311119 Other animal food manufacturing (aquafeed)","website":"https://www.skretting.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ilaks.no/?p=249109","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Skretting har omtalt situasjonen som en «krise når det gjelder marine råvarer» og peker på at kombinasjonen av fiskestans i Peru, svakere globale fiskerier og klimafenomener som El Niño gjør det stadig viktigere å finne alternativer til tradisjonelle marine ingredienser."},"reasoning":"The article (7 October 2026) reports Skretting calling the marine raw material situation a crisis and naming the Peruvian fishing stop and El Niño. At AquaExpo in Ecuador it said it had replaced over half of the fish oil in certain diets with algal oil; how much of the cost it passes on is not shown.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"biomar","name":"BioMar Group A/S","country":"DK","sector":"NAICS 311119 Other animal food manufacturing (aquafeed)","website":"https://www.biomar.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.biomar.com/media/jbja42gf/biomar-group-first-half-2026-interim-report.pdf","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"feed raw material costs have increased significantly, driven by the elevated risk of El Niño-related weather disruptions and a tight marine ingredient supply situation, particularly following reduced fishing quotas in Peru."},"reasoning":"The H1 2026 report ties BioMar's raw material costs to El Niño and Peruvian quotas, and says higher fishmeal and fish oil prices also lifted revenue. It passes costs through, so the exposure is on working capital and on customers' volumes; the effect of the cancelled second season is inferred.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"vitapro","name":"Vitapro S.A.","country":"PE","sector":"NAICS 311119 Other animal food manufacturing (aquafeed)","website":"https://www.vitapro.com.pe/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.primicias.ec/economia/empresas/harina-pescado-precio-costos-incremento-camaron-exportaciones-ecuador-135309/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Vitapro también presentó los resultados de la diversificación de las materias primas utilizadas en sus formulaciones."},"reasoning":"The article on Ecuador's shrimp feed costs under El Niño shows Vitapro, with a feed plant in Ecuador, reporting on diversifying its raw materials. That it does so because of the anchovy shortfall is inferred from the article's context; the quote itself does not name fishmeal or Peru.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"haid-group","name":"Guangdong Haid Group Co., Ltd.","country":"CN","sector":"NAICS 311119 Other animal food manufacturing (aquafeed and livestock feed)","website":"https://www.haid.com.cn/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.intrafish.com/shrimp/shrimp-farming-holds-firm-for-chinese-feed-giant-as-fishmeal-prices-hit-massive-highs/2-1-2034161","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Aquaculture feed volumes grew faster than any other product line at China's largest animal feed producer in the first half, even as a record spike in fishmeal prices squeezed farmers' margins and chilled pond-stocking"},"reasoning":"The article (27 August 2026, tagged Guangdong Haid Group) shows China's largest feed producer growing aquafeed volumes while record fishmeal prices squeezed its farmer customers. China is the main buyer of Peruvian fishmeal; the further effect of the cancelled season on Haid's formulation is inferred.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"mowi","name":"Mowi ASA","country":"NO","sector":"NAICS 112511 Finfish farming and fish hatcheries (salmon)","website":"https://mowi.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://mowi.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Mowi_Q2_2026_Report.pdf","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"However, we are experiencing increasing inflationary pressure on feed raw materials, particularly marine ingredients due to poor pelagic fisheries this year."},"reasoning":"The Q2 2026 report shows feed raw material inflation from poor pelagic fisheries; Mowi also runs its own feed mills. It does not name Peru, and it expected realised cost to stay stable in Q3 thanks to earlier purchases, so the pass-through of the cancelled season into its cost is inferred for 2027.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"salmar","name":"SalMar ASA","country":"NO","sector":"NAICS 112511 Finfish farming and fish hatcheries (salmon)","website":"https://www.salmar.no/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ilaks.no/?p=247228","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"En gryende bekymring for investorene er økte fôrkostnader, drevet av raskt stigende priser for fiskemel og -olje."},"reasoning":"The article on SalMar's Q2 2026 results (25 August 2026) reports rising feed costs from fishmeal and fish oil prices, which its finance director confirmed. Peru is not named; the link to the cancelled season and the size of any offset are inferred.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"leroy-seafood-group","name":"Lerøy Seafood Group ASA","country":"NO","sector":"NAICS 112511 Finfish farming and fish hatcheries (salmon and trout)","website":"https://www.leroyseafood.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://weareaquaculture.com/regions/europe/ler%C3%B8y-q2-operating-profit-falls-16-after-lower-harvest-volumes","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Going into 2027, feed costs will increase, but the effect of the cost optimisation programme will significantly reduce the impact of this,"},"reasoning":"Its management says feed costs will rise into 2027. The quote does not name marine ingredients or Peru, so the link is inferred; Lerøy is majority-owned by Austevoll, which holds Austral in Peru.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"bakkafrost","name":"P/F Bakkafrost","country":"FO","sector":"NAICS 112511 Finfish farming and fish hatcheries (salmon; own fishmeal and feed)","website":"https://www.bakkafrost.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.salmonbusiness.com/arctic-securities-cuts-salmon-price-forecasts-as-nok-strength-and-feed-costs-bite/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Fish meal and fish oil prices have begun rising following low catches in both the North Atlantic and Peru, the report states. Arctic favours Mowi and SalMar for their cost leadership. It also flags Bakkafrost as well-positioned, citing the company’s large fish meal inventory in the Faroe Islands"},"reasoning":"A broker note (May 2026) places Bakkafrost on this chain as a salmon farmer whose own fishmeal inventory buffers prices that rose after low catches in Peru and the North Atlantic. It is still a feed buyer; how long the buffer lasts after the cancelled season is not shown.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"camara-nacional-de-acuacultura","name":"Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura (CNA)","country":"EC","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations (shrimp farming)","website":"https://www.cna-ecuador.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.primicias.ec/economia/empresas/harina-pescado-precio-costos-incremento-camaron-exportaciones-ecuador-135309/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"el alza de los ingredientes esenciales para fabricar alimento balanceado, junto con el incremento de las tarifas eléctricas para las empresas en Ecuador, reduce el margen de ganancias"},"reasoning":"The article (20 October 2026) reports the Ecuadorian shrimp association warning that rising feed ingredient costs cut margins. It speaks for farmers, the buyers of feed; the quote does not single out fishmeal or Peru, so that link is inferred from the article's context.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"veramaris","name":"Veramaris V.O.F.","country":"NL","sector":"NAICS 325414 Biological product manufacturing (algal omega-3 oil)","website":"https://www.veramaris.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.intrafish.com/feed/eu-eyes-algae-to-future-proof-aquaculture-amid-supply-shocks/2-1-2016672","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"As we approach the next El Niño, it is clear that fish oil has served the industry well as a source of omega-3 in the past, but additional sources are also needed, a Veramaris executive told IntraFish."},"reasoning":"The article (21 July 2026) places the algal oil maker as an alternative to fish oil ahead of El Niño. Higher demand for its oil after the cancelled season is inferred; no 2026 volume or price figure is shown.","series_keys":["fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t","fishmeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"corbion","name":"Corbion N.V.","country":"NL","sector":"NAICS 325414 Biological product manufacturing (algal omega-3, AlgaPrime DHA)","website":"https://www.corbion.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://weareaquaculture.com/news/feed/corbion-confirms-new-us-patent-for-omega-3-fatty-acids-derived-from-algae","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Corbion's AlgaPrime products are fully traceable and reduce dependence on ocean resources, which provides a key point of differentiation for both customers and end markets."},"reasoning":"The article (20 April 2026, on a new US patent for AlgaPrime DHA LS) shows Corbion selling algal DHA for aquaculture feed as an alternative to ocean-derived omega-3. That fish oil scarcity after the Peruvian cancellation raises its sales is inferred; the page does not mention Peru, El Niño or fish oil prices.","series_keys":["fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t","fishmeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"innovafeed","name":"Innovafeed SAS","country":"FR","sector":"NAICS 311119 Other animal food manufacturing (insect protein and oil)","website":"https://innovafeed.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fishfarmingexpert.com/aquafeed-fishmeal-innovafeed/marine-ingredient-scarcity-is-here-to-stay-warns-fly-farmer-innovafeed/2154871","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Fishmeal and fish oil prices have rocketed since Peru called an early halt to its anchovy fishing season because of the impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon on stocks."},"reasoning":"The article (20 July 2026) puts the insect protein producer's case for alternatives directly against the Peruvian halt. It also says Innovafeed makes only about 5,000 t a year, so its gain is small in volume; any gain in sales is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t","fishmeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"protix","name":"Protix B.V.","country":"NL","sector":"NAICS 311119 Other animal food manufacturing (insect protein)","website":"https://protix.eu/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://protix.eu/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Our insect solutions for feed, food and farming use less land and water and emit less CO2 than conventional options such as poultry meal, fish meal and soy."},"reasoning":"The site positions insect protein against fish meal, poultry meal and soy. Its benefit from fishmeal scarcity is inferred from its business; no 2026 statement on Peru or El Niño was found.","series_keys":["fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t","fishmeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"calysta","name":"Calysta, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325414 Biological product manufacturing (single-cell protein, FeedKind)","website":"https://calysta.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://calysta.com/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"Calysta is a world leader in cellular agriculture, creating protein without limits via a patented fermentation platform that uses no arable land, plant or animal products."},"reasoning":"The site describes a fermented single-cell protein for feed, one of the substitutes for fishmeal. Its gain from the Peruvian gap is inferred; the site does not mention fishmeal prices, and its industrial volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t","fishmeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"us-soybean-export-council","name":"U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC)","country":"US","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations (soy trade promotion)","website":"https://ussec.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.feedandadditive.com/digital-magazines/Issue65_June2026/23/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"But with wild fish stocks tightening and fish meal prices increasingly volatile, the industry urgently needs ingredients that match its performance, scale with demand and align with sustainability commitments downstream."},"reasoning":"The June 2026 USSEC-sourced item promotes soy protein concentrate as a fishmeal replacement as fishmeal prices rise. It speaks for the soy side of the fishmeal/soymeal ratio; actual extra soy demand from the cancelled season is inferred, and soy prices are also exposed to El Niño droughts.","series_keys":["fishmeal-soymeal-price-ratio","soymeal-usd-t","fishmeal-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"iffo","name":"IFFO, The Marine Ingredients Organisation","country":"GB","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.iffo.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"peru-anchovy-season-cancelled-fishmeal-el-nino-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.agnavigator.com/Article/2026/08/27/china-leans-on-domestic-marine-ingredients-as-el-nino-squeezes-fishmeal-imports/","date":"2026-11-03","quote":"El Niño is currently having a significant impact on global marine ingredient production, primarily by reducing raw material availability in Peru and Chile."},"reasoning":"IFFO, the trade body of fishmeal and fish oil producers, publishes the production statistics that track this chain and is quoted naming Peru and Chile. It is a data source and voice of producers, not a buyer or seller.","series_keys":["fishmeal-usd-t","pe-fishmeal-exports-kt"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"For BioMar, Skretting and Guangdong Haid formulating first-half 2027 aquafeed, and for Ecuador's shrimp feed mills, with no north-centre anchovy fishing before IMARPE's summer 2027 survey, does the September 2026 World Bank fish meal price of 2,916 USD/t justify covering now or shifting the marginal inclusion to soybean meal and algal oil, and which survey reading and which resolution date settle the 2027 first season?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"IMARPE acoustic biomass of the north-centre anchovy stock, survey 2609-10 (data to 7 October 2026)","value":5.12,"unit":"million tonnes","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.gob.pe/institucion/produce/noticias/1457656-produce-no-autoriza-segunda-temporada-de-anchoveta-en-la-zona-norte-centro-para-proteger-la-sostenibilidad-del-recurso-y-su-pesqueria","source_date":"2026-10-16","quote":"Los resultados del Crucero Científico 2609-10, con información al 7 de octubre de 2026, estiman una biomasa acústica de aproximadamente 5.12 millones de toneladas.","note":"PRODUCE press note of 16 October 2026, fetched 3 November 2026 (sha256 96dcdc74… in the collector's originals). IMARPE's own survey report was not found on gob.pe; the ministry's note is the published statement."},{"id":"K2","name":"Biomass change against the summer 2026 survey","value":27.9,"unit":"percent below the summer 2026 estimate","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.gob.pe/institucion/produce/noticias/1457656-produce-no-autoriza-segunda-temporada-de-anchoveta-en-la-zona-norte-centro-para-proteger-la-sostenibilidad-del-recurso-y-su-pesqueria","source_date":"2026-10-16","quote":"Esta cifra es 27.9 % inferior a la registrada en el verano de 2026 y 22.8 % menor que el promedio de las biomasas acústicas de invierno-primavera del periodo 1996-2025."}],"constants_total":45,"constraints_total":12,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"Niño 1+2 sea surface temperature anomaly","to":"anchovy distribution, juvenile share and acoustic biomass","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L2","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"IMARPE survey and recommendations","to":"PRODUCE season decisions (suspension, conclusion, no second season)","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L3","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"north-centre fishing stopped","to":"Peru's monthly fishmeal exports","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L4","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Peruvian export shortfall (one fifth of world supply)","to":"fishmeal price in Europe","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L5","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"fishmeal price","to":"fish meal to soybean meal price ratio","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L6","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"price ratio above 6","to":"inclusion shifts in aquafeed formulas (soy protein, algal oil, single-cell protein)","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"higher unit value and fewer tonnes","to":"destination mix of Peru's exports (China, Europe, Japan, Ecuador)","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L8","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"El Niño Costero persisting to February 2027","to":"the 2027 north-centre first season (survey, resolution, quota)","status":"UNTESTED"}],"alternatives_total":4,"conjectures_total":4,"trajectories_total":1,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-03","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-03","constants":45,"constraints":12,"links":8,"untested":3,"contradicted":0,"alternatives":4,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. Premium emails send the latest analysis when you join and each new one after publication; their links last seven days and need a current subscription. Files you downloaded stay yours within each source licence; downloads and API access stop when the subscription ends"}}}