{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain with statuses, 5 constants, statements of conjectures and trajectories). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"mississippi-low-water-2026","title":"Mississippi low water, barge quotes and grain flow, July–October 2026","date":"2026-09-09","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","geography":[{"code":"US-MO","name":"St. Louis, Missouri","latitude":38.629,"longitude":-90.18},{"code":"US-IL","name":"Granite City, Illinois (Locks 27)","latitude":38.712,"longitude":-90.17}],"source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/gtr-datasets","summary":"The Mississippi River gage at St. Louis fell below zero on 7–11 September 2026. Downbound barge freight quotes peaked two weeks later at 834% of tariff, and weekly grain throughput at Locks 27 fell to a third of its July level before the October rebound.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":16,"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","key":"locks27-corn-tons","family":"FLOW","variable":"Corn moved downbound through Mississippi River Locks 27, week ending Saturday (USACE via USDA AgTransport)","unit":"short 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Grain moved downbound through Mississippi River Locks 27, week ending Saturday (USACE via USDA AgTransport)","unit":"short 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moved downbound through Mississippi River Locks 27, week ending Saturday (USACE via USDA AgTransport)","unit":"short 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moved downbound through Mississippi River Locks 27, week ending Saturday (USACE via USDA AgTransport)","unit":"short 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barge freight quote, St. Louis origin (USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report)","unit":"percent of 1976 benchmark tariff","geography":"US-MO","publisher":"usda-ams","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/resource/deqi-uken.json?%24where=date+between+%272026-07-01T00%3A00%3A00%27+and+%272026-10-17T23%3A59%3A59%27+AND+location+%3D+%27St.+Louis%27&%24limit=5000&%24order=date%2Clocation","source_sha256":"019c1aa710ae8ab36e9a0e9efeb9b42d0a5fddabbea3c3baa08448672e4986df","collected_at":"2026-10-22T22:53:36.571692+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-07-28","value":642.1875},{"period":"2026-08-04","value":637.8125},{"period":"2026-08-11","value":630.3571},{"period":"2026-08-18","value":587.5},{"period":"2026-08-25","value":579.6875},{"period":"2026-09-01","value":682.8125},{"period":"2026-09-08","value":792.1875},{"period":"2026-09-15","value":818.0555},{"period":"2026-09-22","value":834.6875},{"period":"2026-09-29","value":758.9285},{"period":"2026-10-06","value":723.2142},{"period":"2026-10-13","value":673.4375}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":15,"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","key":"stlouis-barge-rate-usd","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Downbound barge freight quote converted with the 3.99 USD per short ton St. Louis benchmark (USDA AMS 'Explanation of Barge Rates')","unit":"USD per short 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River daily mean streamflow at St. Louis, MO (USGS 07010000), provisional","unit":"ft3/s","geography":"US-MO","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?format=json&sites=07010000&startDT=2026-07-01&endDT=2026-10-17&parameterCd=00065,00060&siteStatus=all","source_sha256":"6c1fc3a832bdd14c38e14b3f49a0a7a07c1343d53cc3aaed39ff3c5ca2e099e2","collected_at":"2026-10-23T14:40:00+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-06","value":380000},{"period":"2026-10-07","value":368000},{"period":"2026-10-08","value":341000},{"period":"2026-10-09","value":314000},{"period":"2026-10-10","value":284000},{"period":"2026-10-11","value":262000},{"period":"2026-10-12","value":243000},{"period":"2026-10-13","value":231000},{"period":"2026-10-14","value":233000},{"period":"2026-10-15","value":212000},{"period":"2026-10-16","value":208000},{"period":"2026-10-17","value":194000}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":109,"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","key":"stlouis-stage-ft","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Mississippi River gage height at St. Louis, MO (USGS 07010000), observation at 08:00, provisional","unit":"ft","geography":"US-MO","publisher":"usgs","source_url":"https://api.waterdata.usgs.gov/ogcapi/v0/collections/daily/items?monitoring_location_id=USGS-07010000&parameter_code=00065&time=2026-07-01T00:00:00Z/2026-10-17T23:59:59Z&f=json&limit=200","source_sha256":"ca021b487b33febf8cb29d9cc96bdfb166a71eadcffafd8137936fea841b9a02","collected_at":"2026-10-23T14:40:00+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-06","value":23.82},{"period":"2026-10-07","value":23.19},{"period":"2026-10-08","value":21.15},{"period":"2026-10-09","value":19.18},{"period":"2026-10-10","value":17.1},{"period":"2026-10-11","value":15.15},{"period":"2026-10-12","value":14.4},{"period":"2026-10-13","value":12.21},{"period":"2026-10-14","value":13.57},{"period":"2026-10-15","value":11.21},{"period":"2026-10-16","value":11.29},{"period":"2026-10-17","value":10.18}]}],"edition":{"title":"The river fell below zero. Two weeks later the barge quote doubled.","lead":"Between July and October 2026 the Mississippi at St. Louis dropped from 18 ft to −1.2 ft, the downbound barge quote rose from 15.52 to 33.30 USD per short ton, and weekly grain through Locks 27 fell from 703,800 to 84,300 short tons before October rains reopened the river. Three public series, one chain of events, and the organisations that sit on it.","published_at":"2026-10-23","vectors":["stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"stlouis-stage-ft","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-01","value":18.32},{"id":"F2","series":"stlouis-stage-ft","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-1.22},{"id":"F3","series":"stlouis-stage-ft","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-17","value":10.18},{"id":"F4","series":"stlouis-discharge-cfs","stat":"first","period":null,"value":305000},{"id":"F5","series":"stlouis-discharge-cfs","stat":"min","period":null,"value":90300},{"id":"F6","series":"stlouis-discharge-cfs","stat":"last","period":null,"value":194000},{"id":"F7","series":"stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stat":"first","period":null,"value":15.52359375},{"id":"F8","series":"stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stat":"max","period":null,"value":33.30403125},{"id":"F9","series":"stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stat":"last","period":null,"value":26.87015625},{"id":"F10","series":"stlouis-barge-rate-pct","stat":"max","period":null,"value":834.6875},{"id":"F11","series":"stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stat":"change_pct_first_last","period":null,"value":73.09236947791165},{"id":"F12","series":"stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stat":"change_pct_max_last","period":null,"value":-19.318607263197304},{"id":"F13","series":"locks27-grain-tons","stat":"max","period":null,"value":703800},{"id":"F14","series":"locks27-grain-tons","stat":"min","period":null,"value":84300},{"id":"F15","series":"locks27-grain-tons","stat":"last","period":null,"value":349600},{"id":"F16","series":"locks27-grain-tons","stat":"sum","period":null,"value":6355344}],"watch":[{"indicator":"St. Louis gage height, daily, USGS 07010000","source_url":"https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/07010000/"},{"indicator":"St. Louis downbound barge quote, weekly, USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/deqi-uken"},{"indicator":"Grain through Locks 27, weekly, USACE via USDA AgTransport","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/n4pw-9ygw"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"stage-below-zero-lifts-quote","signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","statement":"If the St. Louis gage height falls below 0 ft for five consecutive days again before 15 December 2026, the St. Louis downbound barge quote exceeds 700% of tariff within the following three weeks.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"St. Louis gage height, daily (USGS 07010000)","source_url":"https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/07010000/","series_key":"stlouis-stage-ft","threshold":{"op":"<","value":0}},{"name":"St. Louis downbound barge quote, weekly (USDA AMS GTR)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/deqi-uken","series_key":"stlouis-barge-rate-pct","threshold":{"op":">=","value":700}}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"harvest-flow-resumes-above-five-feet","signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","statement":"If the St. Louis gage stays above 5 ft, weekly grain throughput at Locks 27 exceeds 600,000 short tons in at least two weeks between 18 October and 30 November 2026, as harvest volume meets unrestricted drafts.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Grain through Locks 27, weekly (USACE via USDA AgTransport)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/n4pw-9ygw","series_key":"locks27-grain-tons","threshold":{"op":">=","value":600000}},{"name":"St. Louis gage height, daily (USGS 07010000)","source_url":"https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/07010000/","series_key":"stlouis-stage-ft","threshold":{"op":">=","value":5}}],"horizon_date":"2026-11-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"quote-eases-below-five-hundred","signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","statement":"If the St. Louis gage stays above 10 ft through November, the St. Louis downbound quote returns below 500% of tariff by 30 November 2026, despite harvest demand for barges.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"St. Louis downbound barge quote, weekly (USDA AMS GTR)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/deqi-uken","series_key":"stlouis-barge-rate-pct","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":500}},{"name":"St. Louis gage height, daily (USGS 07010000)","source_url":"https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/07010000/","series_key":"stlouis-stage-ft","threshold":{"op":">=","value":10}}],"horizon_date":"2026-11-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"adm-artco","name":"ADM / American River Transportation Company (ARTCo)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://www.adm.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.adm.com/en-us/products-services/services/transportation-logistics/barge-stevedoring/","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"ARTCo operates a fully integrated transportation network on the inland waterways. Operations consist of one of the largest covered hopper barge fleets in North America, a vast network of harbor services locations on the river system, linehaul towing vessels, and a large stevedoring operation in the gulf."},"reasoning":"A barge line earns the quoted rate per ton, so a quote that doubles raises revenue per loaded ton; low water cuts the tons each barge can carry and the barges per tow, which offsets part of that gain. Net effect depends on fleet utilisation, not visible here.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"cgb-enterprises","name":"CGB Enterprises","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.cgb.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cgb.com/cgb-grain/","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"Our team of grain origination experts work hard to understand your unique farming operation, marketing and risk management goals, utilizing our pricing tools and market expertise to ensure you’ve got a strategic pricing plan for your production."},"reasoning":"A river-system originator pays or passes on the downbound freight quote through its basis bids to farmers; a higher quote and a draft-restricted river compress origination margins or farm-gate prices. The page evidences origination, not the share moved by barge.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"bunge","name":"Bunge","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.bunge.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bunge.com/en/","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"We are a world leader in grain origination, storage, transportation, oilseed processing and specialty plant-based oils, fats and protein."},"reasoning":"A global originator and processor headquartered in the St. Louis area moves Midwest grain to the Gulf; freight and draft restrictions on this route change its origination economics and export timing. Share of volume on this route is not evidenced.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"marubeni","name":"Marubeni Corporation","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.marubeni.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.marubeni.com/en/business/food_agri/","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"Wheat; barley; corn; sorghum; soybeans; rapeseed; soybean meal; rapeseed meal; gluten meal; gluten feed; distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS)"},"reasoning":"An Asian grain importer sourcing US Gulf cargoes sees the barge leg in its landed cost and in loading delays; it can substitute Pacific Northwest or South American origins. Exposure to this exact route is deduced from the product list, not shown.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"wilmar-international","name":"Wilmar International","country":"SG","sector":"NAICS 311224 Soybean and other oilseed processing","website":"https://www.wilmar-international.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.wilmar-international.com/about-us","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"Wilmar International Limited, founded in 1991 and headquartered in Singapore, is today Asia’s leading agribusiness group. We are at every step of the entire value chain of the agricultural commodity business."},"reasoning":"An oilseed crusher and feed-ingredient buyer in Asia is a candidate importer of US Gulf soybeans; a dearer and slower barge leg favours alternative origins. Procurement route is not evidenced.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"louis-dreyfus-company","name":"Louis Dreyfus Company","country":"CH","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.ldc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ldc.com/who-we-are/","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"Our activities across a diversified range of business lines span the entire value chain, from origination to distribution, helping to feed and clothe up to 500 million people every year."},"reasoning":"A global merchant with US origination and Gulf export activity carries the barge leg in its cost of goods and can arbitrage origins when the river is restricted. The page evidences the business model, not the volume on this route.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"united-grain-corporation","name":"United Grain Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://unitedgrain.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.mitsui.com/jp/en/innovation/business/grain_feed/","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"US-based Mitsui subsidiary United Grain Corporation has expanded the range of agricultural commodities it handles to serve booming demand in Asia."},"reasoning":"A Pacific Northwest export gateway competes with the Gulf route for Asian demand; when Mississippi freight rises and drafts are restricted, rail-to-PNW flows gain relative attractiveness. The substitution is a mechanism, not a measured volume shift.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"mitsui","name":"Mitsui & Co.","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.mitsui.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.mitsui.com/jp/en/innovation/business/grain_feed/","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"The seamless linkage of United Grain, Mitsui and Mitsui’s Asian customer base is a lifeline that helps to provide a stable supply of safe, delicious food for a growing world."},"reasoning":"As owner of a Pacific Northwest gateway, the trading house benefits when Gulf-route friction diverts Asian demand westward; it is also an importer that pays more if it stays on Gulf cargoes. Net position depends on its book, which is not public.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd"]}]},{"slug":"agrotools","name":"Agrotools","country":"BR","sector":"NAICS 541511 Custom computer programming services (agribusiness intelligence)","website":"https://agrotools.com.br/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://agrotools.com.br/en/","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"We create digital solutions offering more control and visibility of the entire agribusiness chain in real time."},"reasoning":"A Brazilian agribusiness-intelligence provider serves exporters that compete with US Gulf grain; a restricted Mississippi is a demand signal for Brazilian origination analytics. The link is adjacent, not an exposure of its own operations.","series_keys":["locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"ingram-barge-company","name":"Ingram Barge Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://ingrambarge.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ingrambarge.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Ingram transports dry and liquid commodities on over 4,500 miles of America’s inland waterways."},"reasoning":"One of the largest dry-cargo barge lines on the inland system earns the downbound freight quote per ton; a quote near 835% of tariff lifts revenue per loaded ton while light-loading and smaller tows cut the tons carried. The page evidences the fleet, not the share of its tows moving grain from St. Louis.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stlouis-barge-rate-pct","locks27-grain-tons","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"american-commercial-barge-line","name":"American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://www.bargeacbl.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bargeacbl.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Corn, soybeans, and wheat from the American Midwest reach global markets through the export terminals at the Gulf."},"reasoning":"A linehaul barge line that describes the Midwest-to-Gulf grain chain as its business prices tows off the St. Louis downbound quote; the September spike raises revenue per ton while draft limits below 0 ft at St. Louis reduce tonnage per barge and barges per tow. Net effect depends on utilisation, not shown on the page.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stlouis-barge-rate-pct","locks27-grain-tons","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"marquette-transportation-company","name":"Marquette Transportation Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://marquettetrans.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://marquettetrans.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Based in Paducah, KY, Marquette’s River Division operates across America’s Inland River System, including the Upper and Lower Mississippi, the Illinois, Ohio and the Tennessee Rivers along with all tributaries."},"reasoning":"A towing company selling horsepower on the Upper and Lower Mississippi benefits from higher per-ton freight when water is low but must push smaller tows at lighter drafts; the balance between rate and volume is not visible on the page.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stlouis-stage-ft","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"canal-barge-company","name":"Canal Barge Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://www.canalbarge.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.canalbarge.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Founded in 1933, Canal Barge Company is a privately-owned marine transportation company headquartered in New Orleans, Louisiana."},"reasoning":"A New Orleans-based inland operator with dry-cargo, liquid and Illinois Waterway towing units runs its tows through the St. Louis and Lower Mississippi reaches where the stage fell below 0 ft; draft and tow-size limits raise its cost per ton moved. The grain share of its dry-cargo book is not evidenced.","series_keys":["stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-discharge-cfs","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"cooper-consolidated","name":"Cooper Consolidated","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488320 Marine cargo handling","website":"https://www.cooperconsolidated.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cooperconsolidated.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Cooper Consolidated is an asset-based provider of midstream stevedoring, barge, marine, and logistics services. With operations based along the lower Mississippi River between Southwest Pass and Baton Rouge, we provide cargo handling and movements throughout the U.S. inland waterway system."},"reasoning":"A midstream stevedore transfers barge cargo to ocean vessels on the Lower Mississippi; its throughput follows the downbound barge count, so the drop to 84,300 short tons of grain through Locks 27 in the week ending 3 October 2026 reduces the barges arriving for transfer. The page evidences the location, not the grain share.","series_keys":["locks27-grain-tons","stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-discharge-cfs"]}]},{"slug":"crounse-corporation","name":"Crounse Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://www.crounse.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.crounse.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Crounse Corporation is a full-service barge line operating on the Inland Waterways of the United States. We move 30 million tons of dry bulk commodities annually."},"reasoning":"A dry-bulk barge line whose tows reach the Lower Mississippi faces the same Coast Guard draft and tow-size limits as grain carriers when St. Louis and Memphis gauges fall; its cargo mix is mostly non-grain, so the exposure runs through river stage rather than the grain freight quote.","series_keys":["stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-discharge-cfs"]}]},{"slug":"wepfer-marine","name":"Wepfer Marine","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488330 Navigational services to shipping","website":"https://www.wepfermarine.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.wepfermarine.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Founded in 1972, Wepfer Marine Inc. operates harbor and fleeting services in nine locations along the Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Rivers, with the newest fleet being located at Metropolis, IL."},"reasoning":"Harbor and fleeting services on the Lower Mississippi are paid per barge handled; fewer and lighter downbound grain barges after the Locks 27 trough cut handling volumes, while groundings and fleet repositioning at low stage add work. The page evidences the locations, not the grain share.","series_keys":["stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-discharge-cfs","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"hines-furlong-line","name":"Hines Furlong Line","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://hinesfurlongline.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://hinesfurlongline.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Today, the company operates a fleet of towboats on the Cumberland, Ohio, Tennessee, Illinois, and Mississippi Rivers. HFL also specializes in leasing its fleet of inland towboats, tank barges, and hopper barges to other barge lines and some end user customers."},"reasoning":"A towboat and hopper-barge lessor on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers sees demand for extra barges and horsepower when light-loading forces shippers to use more barges per ton; the benefit depends on charter terms that are not public.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"kirby-corporation","name":"Kirby Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://kirbycorp.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://kirbycorp.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Kirby’s industry leading fleet of inland tank barges transport bulk liquid cargoes, including petrochemicals, black oil, refined products, and agricultural chemicals for customers on the Mississippi River, its tributaries, and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway."},"reasoning":"The largest inland tank-barge operator runs the same Mississippi reaches as the grain fleet; sub-zero stage at St. Louis imposes draft and tow-size limits on liquid tows too, raising cost per ton. It does not earn the grain freight quote, so the link runs through river stage only.","series_keys":["stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-discharge-cfs"]}]},{"slug":"big-river-coalition","name":"Big River Coalition","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://bigrivercoalition.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://bigrivercoalition.org/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"The Big River Coalition, LLC is the preeminent advocacy organization for maritime commerce on the Mississippi River Ship Channel."},"reasoning":"An advocacy group for the Lower Mississippi ship channel lobbies for dredging funds and channel depth; a low-water season strengthens its case and its members' need for maintenance dredging. It has no cargo of its own, so the link is adjacent.","series_keys":["stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-discharge-cfs"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-new-orleans","name":"Port of New Orleans","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://portnola.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://portnola.com/business/cargo","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Port NOLA is a diverse deepwater port uniquely located on the Mississippi River near the Gulf of Mexico — with access to 30-plus major inland hubs such as Memphis, Chicago and Canada via 14,500 miles of waterways, six Class I railroads and interstate roadways."},"reasoning":"A deepwater port whose inland connection is the Mississippi barge system loses barge-to-ship transfer activity when fewer and lighter grain barges arrive; most Gulf grain elevators sit outside its wharves, so the grain-specific share is deduced.","series_keys":["locks27-grain-tons","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-south-louisiana","name":"Port of South Louisiana","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://portsl.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://portsl.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"As America's leading grain exporting port district, the Port of South Louisiana is the premier sea gateway for U.S. export and import traffic... Governed by a board of nine Commissioners, the Port of South Louisiana, which stretches 54 miles along the Mississippi River, is one of the largest tonnage port districts in the western hemisphere."},"reasoning":"The port district hosting the main Lower Mississippi grain export elevators receives the barges counted at Locks 27 roughly two weeks later; the week-ending-3-October trough and higher freight reduce elevator throughput and tonnage-based revenue in its jurisdiction.","series_keys":["locks27-grain-tons","locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons","stlouis-barge-rate-usd"]}]},{"slug":"zen-noh-grain-corporation","name":"Zen-Noh Grain Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.zennohglobal.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.zennohglobal.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"This work builds on our long‑standing commitment to the United States through Zen‑Noh Grain, a strategic investment that since 1979 has provided a safe, stable supply of U.S. corn, milo, soybeans, and other foodstuffs to our member‑farmers in Japan."},"reasoning":"The Convent, Louisiana export elevator is fed by barges from the Mississippi system; a dearer and draft-restricted barge leg raises its delivered cost of corn and soybeans and slows vessel loading for Japanese buyers. Volume share on this route is not quantified on the page.","series_keys":["locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons","stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"marquis","name":"Marquis (Marquis Energy)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325193 Ethyl alcohol manufacturing","website":"https://marquisinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://marquisinc.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Marquis Energy produces more than 395 million gallons of high-octane, high-performance renewable ethanol fuel per year, as well as Distillers Dried Grains With Solubles (DDGS) and Distillers Corn Oil (DCO)."},"reasoning":"An ethanol and DDGS producer at Hennepin on the Illinois River loads barges that pass St. Louis to reach the Gulf; higher downbound freight and draft limits raise its outbound logistics cost on ethanol and DDGS. Barge share of its shipments is not stated on the page.","series_keys":["locks27-other-tons","stlouis-barge-rate-usd","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"chs-inc","name":"CHS Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.chsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.chsinc.com/products-and-services/agriculture/grains/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"And as one of the world’s largest customers of freight and barge transportation, we ensure safe and timely delivery of high-quality grain supported by experienced traders and risk managers."},"reasoning":"A farmer-owned cooperative that calls itself one of the largest buyers of barge freight pays the St. Louis downbound quote on its Gulf-bound grain and passes part of it to farm-gate basis; its Pacific Northwest export terminals offer a partial hedge. Route split is not evidenced.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"illinois-soybean-association","name":"Illinois Soybean Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ilsoy.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ilsoy.org/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"The Illinois Soybean Association (ISA) checkoff and membership programs represent more than 43,000 soybean farmers in Illinois."},"reasoning":"Illinois soybeans reach the Gulf largely by barge from Illinois River and Mississippi terminals, so a higher freight quote widens the basis farmers receive at harvest; the association represents those farmers and is a Soy Transportation Coalition member. Farm-level impact is inferred.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"missouri-soybeans","name":"Missouri Soybeans (Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://mosoy.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://mosoy.org/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Missouri Soybeans is dedicated to helping improve profit opportunities for Missouri soybean farmers from St. Joe to Ste. Gen and everywhere in between."},"reasoning":"Missouri farmers deliver to Mississippi River elevators around St. Louis whose bids net back the downbound barge quote; the September spike and draft limits weaken harvest basis for the farmers this checkoff body represents. The quote shows the constituency, not the freight pass-through.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-soybeans-tons","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"american-soybean-association","name":"American Soybean Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://soygrowers.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://soygrowers.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"ASA has 26 affiliated state associations representing 30 soybean-producing states and more than 500,000 soybean farmers."},"reasoning":"The national policy voice of soybean farmers represents the sellers who absorb barge freight in their basis; it is also a Soy Transportation Coalition member. Exposure is through its members' prices, not its own operations.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"united-soybean-board","name":"United Soybean Board","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.unitedsoybean.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.soycheckoff.org/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Growing U.S. soybean demand through exports with a presence in more than 90 countries."},"reasoning":"The national soy checkoff funds export promotion and transportation studies; a costlier Gulf route erodes the competitiveness of the exports it promotes and shifts demand toward South American origins. The link is through the farmers' export earnings.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"national-grain-and-feed-association","name":"National Grain and Feed Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ngfa.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ngfa.org/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Representing approximately 700 companies and thousands of facilities from coast to coast, NGFA encompasses all sectors of the grain and feed industry – from Fortune 500 companies to farmer-owned cooperatives and everyone in between."},"reasoning":"The trade association of grain elevators and merchandisers, including the river terminals that ship from St. Louis, carries members' barge-freight and waterway concerns into policy and runs a barge digital-transformation project; it has no cargo of its own.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"national-corn-growers-association","name":"National Corn Growers Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ncga.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ncga.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"In 2020, exports of corn to countries like China, Mexico and Canada added $9.2 billion in value to the U.S. economy, positively affecting jobs, gross state product and economic output."},"reasoning":"Corn is the largest grain through Locks 27 and the Gulf; the farmers this association represents pay the barge quote through basis, and it sits on the Waterways Council board for that reason. Farm-level impact is inferred from the export dependence shown.","series_keys":["locks27-corn-tons","stlouis-barge-rate-usd"]}]},{"slug":"illinois-corn-growers-association","name":"Illinois Corn Growers Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ilcorn.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ilcorn.org/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Illinois exports nearly 50% of corn grown out of state."},"reasoning":"Half of Illinois corn leaves the state, much of it by barge on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers; a higher downbound quote at St. Louis widens basis for its member farmers. The quote evidences export dependence, not the barge share.","series_keys":["locks27-corn-tons","stlouis-barge-rate-usd"]}]},{"slug":"soy-transportation-coalition","name":"Soy Transportation Coalition","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.soytransportation.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.soytransportation.org/aboutus.html","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"The Soy Transportation Coalition is an organization comprised of thirteen state soybean boards, the American Soybean Association, and the United Soybean Board."},"reasoning":"A farmer-funded coalition dedicated to the cost and reliability of soybean transport, including inland waterways; a low-water season feeds its advocacy for lock and dredging funding. It has no cargo of its own.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-soybeans-tons","stlouis-stage-ft"]}]},{"slug":"national-oilseed-processors-association","name":"National Oilseed Processors Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.nopa.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.nopa.org/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Our 20 members operate 73 U.S. soybean and softseed extraction plants across 20 states."},"reasoning":"Domestic crushers compete with Gulf exporters for interior soybeans; when barge freight spikes, export bids net back less to the farm and interior crush plants buy beans relatively cheaper. The benefit depends on each plant's location relative to the river, not shown here.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"itochu","name":"ITOCHU Corporation","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.itochu.co.jp/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.itochu.co.jp/en/business/food/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"CGB Enterprises, Inc. (CGB) invests in a soybean oil extraction and refinement plant."},"reasoning":"A Japanese trading house that co-owns CGB Enterprises, a Mississippi River grain originator and barge operator, holds an equity stake in the chain's margins; the same page lists procurement of corn and soybeans for Japan and Asia, whose landed cost includes the barge leg. The net direction depends on CGB's freight book.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"ja-zen-noh","name":"ZEN-NOH (National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations)","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.zennoh.or.jp/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.zennohglobal.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Zen‑Noh Global is focused on strengthening and connecting its global grain origination and export network through strategic investments and partnerships."},"reasoning":"The Japanese cooperative federation buys US corn and soybeans through its own Convent elevator and the CGB origination network; a dearer, slower barge leg raises its landed feed-grain cost and can shift purchases to its Brazilian and Canadian terminals.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"union-pacific","name":"Union Pacific Railroad","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.up.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.up.com/shipping/agricultural/grain","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Union Pacific specializes in providing innovative transportation solutions for grain, grain products, fresh and frozen food, beverages and fertilizer."},"reasoning":"A western railroad linking the Corn Belt to Pacific Northwest and Texas Gulf terminals gains shuttle-train demand when barge freight from St. Louis spikes and drafts are cut; the diversion is a mechanism, not a measured volume shift.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"bnsf-railway","name":"BNSF Railway","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.bnsf.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bnsf.com/ship-with-bnsf/agricultural-products/index.page","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Since 1854, we have partnered with farmers to make sure wholesome grain makes its way from America's heartland to dinner tables around the globe."},"reasoning":"The largest grain-hauling railroad serves the Pacific Northwest export terminals that compete with the Gulf; a barge quote above 800% of tariff widens the rail-versus-barge spread in its favour for western Corn Belt origins. Diverted volume is not evidenced.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"columbia-grain-international","name":"Columbia Grain International","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://columbiagrain.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://columbiagrain.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Here at Columbia Grain International (CGI), we are dedicated to cultivating the growth of the food supply chain in the northwestern region of the United States to ensure the world receives high-quality grains, pulses, oilseeds, and organics."},"reasoning":"A Pacific Northwest originator and exporter competes with Gulf-routed grain for Asian buyers; when the Mississippi leg becomes dearer, PNW rail-fed exports gain relative attractiveness. The page evidences the gateway, not a volume shift.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-vancouver-usa","name":"Port of Vancouver USA","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://www.portvanusa.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.portvanusa.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Port of Vancouver USA is a global hub of opportunity, positioned at a key crossroads of ocean-bound and river shipping lanes, interstate highways and national rail lines."},"reasoning":"The Columbia River port hosting the United Grain export elevator is the alternative gateway for Midwest grain diverted by rail when Gulf barge freight spikes; the page evidences the rail-ocean position, not grain volumes.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-grain-tons"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-kalama","name":"Port of Kalama","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://portofkalama.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://portofkalama.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Did you know the Port of Kalama is the 3rd largest exporter on the West Coast, and the 15th largest exporter in the United States?"},"reasoning":"A Columbia River port whose export tonnage is dominated by rail-fed grain elevators (including the CHS-Cargill TEMCO terminal) competes with the Gulf for Asian corn and soybean demand; Mississippi friction shifts the rail-versus-barge arbitrage toward it. Volume shift is not evidenced.","series_keys":["stlouis-barge-rate-usd","locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons"]}]},{"slug":"amaggi","name":"AMAGGI","country":"BR","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.amaggi.com.br/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.amaggi.com.br/en/home-english/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Management of ports, factories and warehouses, in addition to hundreds of trailers and vessels that make up the river and road fleets."},"reasoning":"A Brazilian originator and exporter with its own river fleet and port terminals sells corn and soybeans into the same Asian demand as US Gulf cargoes; a costlier Mississippi leg widens Brazil's FOB advantage during the US harvest window. Competitive effect is inferred.","series_keys":["locks27-corn-tons","locks27-soybeans-tons","stlouis-barge-rate-usd"]}]},{"slug":"abiove","name":"ABIOVE (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries)","country":"BR","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://abiove.org.br/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://abiove.org.br/en/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Abiove is an entity that represents the leading companies that process, manufacture and trade soybean, soybean oil, soybean meal and biodiesel."},"reasoning":"The association of Brazil's soybean processors and exporters represents the companies that gain export share when US Gulf soybeans become dearer to land in Asia; it has no cargo of its own, so the exposure is through its members' positions.","series_keys":["locks27-soybeans-tons","stlouis-barge-rate-usd"]}]},{"slug":"the-swedish-club","name":"The Swedish Club","country":"SE","sector":"NAICS 524126 Direct property and casualty insurance carriers","website":"https://www.swedishclub.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.swedishclub.com/news/member-alert/low-water-advisory-in-the-mississippi-river/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"This has caused upriver supply chain interruptions to barge traffic transporting grain and other cargoes as well as groundings of ocean-going vessels traversing up and down the Lower Mississippi River’s (LMR) navigable channels upto Baton Rouge, Louisiana, approx."},"reasoning":"A marine P&I and hull insurer circulates low-water advisories because groundings of ocean vessels and barges on the Lower Mississippi generate claims; the advisory quoted dates from an earlier low-water episode and shows the exposure mechanism, not a 2026 loss.","series_keys":["stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-discharge-cfs"]}]},{"slug":"moran-shipping-agencies","name":"Moran Shipping Agencies","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488510 Freight transportation arrangement","website":"https://www.moranshipping.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"mississippi-low-water-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.moranshipping.com/news/bulletins/port-update-new-orleans-la-slash-mississippi-river-2026-10-22","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Maximum loading draft as follows: 50 feet from New Orleans to Mile 180 and 45 feet from Mile 180 to Mile 234. Vessels with a draft of 41' and greater are restricted to daylight transits only from Mile 180 to Mile 234 (Baton Rouge Harbor)"},"reasoning":"A ship agency publishing daily Mississippi River draft and stage bulletins for ocean vessels calling the grain elevators; low water changes the pilots' loading drafts it relays and the cargo its principals can load per vessel. It carries no cargo itself.","series_keys":["stlouis-stage-ft","stlouis-discharge-cfs"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"DRAFT","question":"When the St. Louis gage falls below zero, who pays for the barge, who loses the cargo, and who gains an alternative origin?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Cargo lost per foot of draft, per barge","value":150,"unit":"short tons per barge per foot","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.workboat.com/viewpoints/concern-grows-over-low-water-on-the-inland-waterways","source_date":"2022-09-28","quote":"Each foot of reduced depth results in 150-200 fewer short tons (5,000-6,700 bushels of soybeans) being loaded per barge.","note":"Soy Transportation Coalition estimate; the conservative end of the range is used."},{"id":"K2","name":"Typical covered hopper barge load","value":1500,"unit":"short tons","kind":"CAPACITY","source_url":"https://www.workboat.com/viewpoints/concern-grows-over-low-water-on-the-inland-waterways","source_date":"2022-09-28","quote":"A typical barge can be loaded with 1,500 short tons of freight (50,000 bushels of soybeans)."},{"id":"K3","name":"Tow-size cut, St. Louis to the Gulf, low-water episode of September 2024","value":25,"unit":"percent of normal barges per tow","kind":"CAPACITY","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR09122024.pdf","source_date":"2024-09-12","quote":"From St. Louis to the Gulf, tow size is down 14-25 percent (or 5-10 barges per tow), and transit delays of 1 to 2 days are expected.","note":"Upper end of the range; the 2024 episode is the reference for what a restriction looks like on this reach."},{"id":"K4","name":"Loading draft, St. Louis to Greenville, same episode","value":10,"unit":"feet","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR09122024.pdf","source_date":"2024-09-12","quote":"Most operators have reduced drafts to 9.5 feet on the Ohio River; to 10 feet from St. Louis, MO, to Greenville, MS; and to 10.5 feet from Greenville, MS, to the Gulf."},{"id":"K5","name":"Share of US corn exports moved by barge, 2020","value":53,"unit":"percent","kind":"SUPPLY","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem012024.pdf","source_date":"2024-01-01","quote":"Barges moved 53 percent of corn, 53 percent of soybeans, and 28 percent of wheat destined for export in 2020.","note":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture, January 2024 edition."}],"constants_total":10,"constraints":[{"id":"C1","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C2","kind":"CAPACITY"},{"id":"C3","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C4","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C5","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C6","kind":"CONTRACT"}],"constraints_total":6,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"St. Louis gage height","to":"loading draft and barges per tow","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":7},"statement":"As the gage falls, operators cut the loading draft and the number of barges per tow; on this reach the 2024 episode cut the draft to 10 ft and tows by up to a quarter."},{"id":"L2","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"tons per tow","to":"quote per ton","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":7,"max":21},"statement":"Fewer tons per tow raise the cost of moving each ton; the St. Louis quote peaked at 834.7% of tariff thirteen days after the stage minimum."},{"id":"L3","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"draft limits and quote","to":"grain through Locks 27","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":14,"max":28},"statement":"Weekly grain through Locks 27 fell from 703,800 to 84,300 short tons, the trough three weeks after the stage minimum; the pre-harvest calendar shares the explanation."},{"id":"L4","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"October rain and discharge","to":"stage recovery and quote easing","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":7,"max":21},"statement":"October rains lifted the gage back to 10.18 ft and the quote eased 19.3% from its peak within three weeks."},{"id":"L5","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"quote per ton","to":"interior basis and importer landed cost","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"A higher quote widens the gap between interior bids and Gulf prices; which party absorbs it depends on contract terms. The Atlas holds no basis series yet."},{"id":"L6","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Gulf freight at a peak","to":"origin substitution by importers","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":14,"max":60},"statement":"Importers with Brazilian supply available from August to January can shift origin while Gulf freight is at a peak; no inspection series is in the Atlas yet."}],"alternatives":[{"id":"A1","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A2","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A3","status":"OPEN"}],"alternatives_total":3,"conjectures":[{"locked":true,"id":"J1","statement":"A second run of five consecutive days below 0 ft at St. Louis before 15 December lifts the southbound quote above 700% of tariff within three weeks.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"FREE"},{"locked":true,"id":"J2","statement":"At the peak quote, a barge loaded one foot lighter earned about 21,700 USD more than a full barge did at the July quote: the barge line's revenue per barge rose while the cargo per barge fell.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J3","statement":"The throughput collapse exceeded what draft and tow cuts can explain: capacity fell to about two thirds of normal, throughput to twelve percent of its July peak; the remainder is the pre-harvest calendar, not the river.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J4","statement":"While the St. Louis quote sits above its November three-year average, importers in Japan, Vietnam and Egypt hold a Brazilian alternative open until January; US Gulf corn inspections in November run below their three-year average.","scope":"CROSS_GEOGRAPHY","confidence":"LOW","tier":"PREMIUM"}],"trajectories":[{"locked":true,"id":"T1","name":"St. Louis quote and Locks 27 grain to the end of 2026","horizon":{"from":"2026-10-18","to":"2026-12-31"},"tier":"PREMIUM","branches":[{"id":"river-open","condition":{"indicator":"St. Louis gage height","series_key":"stlouis-stage-ft","op":">=","value":5,"by":"2026-11-15"}},{"id":"second-low-water","condition":{"indicator":"St. Louis gage height","series_key":"stlouis-stage-ft","op":"<","value":0,"by":"2026-12-15"}}]}],"review":{"author":"claude-code","reviewer":null,"date":"2026-10-23","verdict":"PENDING","notes":"Drafted from the published edition and ten sourced constants. Needs an independent reviewer (NanoCorp agent or Codex) on the constants' readings, the C2 reference episode and the trajectory ranges before REVIEWED."},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"PENDING","reviewed_at":"2026-10-23","constants":10,"constraints":6,"links":6,"untested":2,"contradicted":0,"alternatives":3,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"Premium newsletter — published pack library","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Access to every published pack, old and new, while your official Premium right is valid; new packs join the same library","Three formats per pack: dossier bundle as JSON, organisations as CSV and redistributable series as CSV","Provenance, licences, hashes and review notes where available; restricted observations withheld and unfinished dossiers labelled honestly","A member key for available full data on the JSON API and MCP; no free newsletter subscription without separate consent"],"delivery":"Download the archive from your native account while the official right is valid. The newsletter sends the latest pack on joining and new packs after publication; personal links expire after seven days and require a current right. Keep files already downloaded; no retrieval after access ends"}}}