DOSSIER · Regulation · Côte d'Ivoire (cocoa belt, Soubré–Daloa) / Ghana (Western North cocoa region) / Amsterdam (EU cocoa import gateway) / Antwerp (EU cocoa import gateway) · reviewed 2026-10-24
Two administered cocoa prices, one border: the EU customs ledger will show whether Ivorian beans go to Ghana
Before the Ivorian main crop peaks in November to January, who takes the bean grown within reach of the Ghana border: a Ghanaian licensed buying company paying GH¢42,400 per tonne for it on COCOBOD's account, an Ivorian grinder keeping it at CFAF 1,200 per kilogram, or an EU importer in Amsterdam or Antwerp landing it under a forward contract, and which of COCOBOD, the Conseil du Café-Cacao, the grinders, the chocolate makers and the Ivorian producers gains or loses on each route?
Edition · Data sheet · Sample · Get it · Preview: chain · Constants · Conjectures
INDEPENDENT REVIEW · ACCEPTED
Accepted by an independent reviewer. Written by atlas-analyst, reviewed by atlas-counter-analyst on 2026-10-24. Two rounds at most; what the reviewer and the author still disagree on is kept, not resolved by majority.
Review notes, as written
Counter-analysis of 2026-10-24 in docs/night-2026-10-24/cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md. All 27 figures, ten bounds and four quantities recompute exactly; Eurostat and World Bank hashes match. No REJECT. REWORK on constants: a dated COCOBOD primary of 25 September 2026 (cocobod.gh/news/review-of-the-producer-price-of-cocoa-for-the-202627-cocoa-season) exists for K8, K9, K10 and the 12 February 2026 reform release for K12, K28, K29 (it gives rollovers of 333,767 t, against K27's 370,000); K15's URL answers 404 (value right); K14's note is wrong, COCOBOD and CMC forecast 470,000 to 620,000 t for 2026/27 against about 760,000 t delivered in 2025/26 (Reuters, 3 September 2026), which re-bases C5 and J4. REWORK on L5 and J1: the eastward flow is already reported by COCOBOD (Reuters, 30 April 2026: Ivorian beans bought with LBC funds across four border regions, the reverse of 2023/24), so the crossing's novelty is the Comext reading only, and J1's Ivorian falsifier is confounded by the CCC's own outlook of about 900,000 t of October to December arrivals against 1.1 million a year earlier with the main crop 8 to 10 weeks late. REWORK on T1: the 25,000 t per month condition was exceeded in January 2025, February 2026 and August 2026 without any inflow and is reachable by Ghana's own financed crop, so it does not discriminate beans-east from A1; January 2027 Comext is released after the condition's date. Organisations: add an Ivorian producer organisation (ECOOKIM has a site); mondelez and ghana-cocoa-board URLs to update. Accepted: the exchange-rate constants, the 60 percent rule read as a forward-sales reference (Reuters: the 2026/27 price rests on average forward sales made March to June, more than 1.1 million t), the 4 March opening of the wedge, J2 and J3 with caveats on CIF costs and the grinders' barème. Disagreements are kept in the counter-analysis, not erased here. Rework round 1 applied on 2026-10-24T02:56Z: items 1 (K8, K9, K10, K12, K28, K29 re-sourced to the COCOBOD releases of 25 September 2026 and 12 February 2026; K14 note corrected; K15 URL replaced; K27 corrected to the regulator's 333,767 t), 2 (K30 added, L5 set to CONSISTENT, J1 rewritten so that only the Comext-by-origin reading is claimed as new, with CocoaIntel and the Coffee Trading Academy named as prior art), 3 (K31 to K37 added, C5 and J4 re-based on the 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast against about 760,000 t delivered, A1 SUPPORTED for the August jump), 4 (T1 condition replaced by Ghana's pooled November to December share of two-origin EU imports at or above 34.1%, horizon ended on the December 2026 Comext release, Ghana paths rebuilt), 5 (ghana-cocoa-board evidence re-sourced, ECOOKIM added). Kept as disagreement: K18 stays at the conservative 160,000 t against the later 253,212 t; C4 and C9 wording unchanged, the crop delay is carried by K35; L3's political-floor reading holds for March, not for September, where the government took the bottom of the CCC's 1,200 to 1,500 range; Kuapa Kokoo stays BENEFICIARY though arrears argue for EXPOSED on timing; the beans-stay Ivorian December upper bound of 50,000 t and the January 2027 Ivorian unit-value points stay, the latter confrontable only at the March 2027 release. Round 2 (2026-10-24, atlas-counter-analyst): every re-sourced and new quote (K8, K9, K10, K12, K14, K15, K27 to K37, ghana-cocoa-board, ecookim) re-fetched and matched verbatim, CNBC Africa dates 2026-04-30, 2026-06-03, 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03 as stated; C5 recomputes to 53.256 percent, J4 to 12.9 to 17.0 percent; the threshold recomputes as mean 24.674 plus sample SD 9.430 = 34.103 percent and the pooled November to December 2025 share as 32.967 percent; Ghana bands consistent with a 470,000 to 620,000 t crop at the 2025/26 EU share. Verdict ACCEPTED, no REJECT and no REWORK left on a constant, a check or a trajectory. Disagreements kept in the Round 2 section of the counter-analysis: the 34.1 percent share threshold is cleared by five of twenty monthly shares and by the pooled July to August 2026 share, and a late Ivorian December inside the beans-stay band can lift Ghana's share past it without any inflow, so the Ghana December level above 20,000 t would discriminate better; C11 still says 370,000 t where K27 now carries 333,767 t; K33 is named delivered while Reuters says output; K18, L3, Kuapa Kokoo direction and the beans-stay Ivorian upper bound stay as recorded.
What this dossier holds
37 constants read verbatim from their sources, 11 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 8-link causal chain with a status per link (2 untested, 0 contradicted), 5 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 4 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 1 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Below the sample and the offer, a preview: the chain with its statuses, 5 of the constants with their quotes, the conjectures and trajectories by statement. The rest is the product.
A sample of the data
The last 5 points of 4 of the 11 series. Free downloads carry the last 12 points. Premium opens the available full series, dossiers and exports; restricted series remain cited, not redistributed.
| Series | Family · unit | latest | in total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dekadal rain, Ivorian cocoa belt (mm) | Physical · mm | 20.37 | 33.81 | 39.85 | 14.45 | 31.45 | 18 |
| Dekadal rain, Ghana cocoa belt (mm) | Physical · mm | 21.51 | 39.52 | 50 | 32.3 | 9.28 | 18 |
| Cocoa price, NY/London average (USD/kg) | Economic · USD/kg | 4.16 | 4.4 | 5.61 | 5.95 | 5.92 | 21 |
| EU cocoa bean imports from CI (100 kg) | Flow · 100 kg | 584,052.02 | 706,353.85 | 562,278.93 | 410,106.79 | 406,058.25 | 20 |
Periods run from 2026-08-11 to 2026-09-21 on the first row; hover a value for its period. Downloads and provenance: data sheet →
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Preview: the chain
From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The evidence behind each link, and what validated it, are in the export.
- L1 · ECONOMICObservedlag 30–120 days
world cocoa price (ICCO average, New York and London) EU import unit values of Ivorian and Ghanaian beans
The world price fell from 10.75 USD/kg in January 2025 to 3.24 in March 2026 and recovered to 5.92 in September; the EU unit value of Ivorian beans followed with a lag, from a peak of 8,656 EUR/t in October 2025 to 5,075 in August 2026, and Ghanaian beans landed at 4,317 EUR/t in August.
- L2 · ECONOMICConsistentlag 90–240 days
world price during the forward-sales window, March to June 2026 CIF reference of the 2026/27 Ivorian main crop
The CCC sells at least 70% of the expected crop forward before harvest; the reference implied by the 1,200 price, about 3.48 USD/kg, sits inside the March to June 2026 spot range (3.24 to 4.40), which is what a book sold through that window would produce. The Atlas holds no forward-sales series.
- L3 · BEHAVIOURALConsistentlag 0–30 days
CIF reference and the 60% rule Ivorian farmgate decisions of 4 March and 1 September 2026
Applied strictly the rule gave 947 CFAF/kg in March; the government set 1,200 and kept it on 1 September, 57% below the 2,800 of the 2025/26 main crop that had been sold forward near the peak. The decision follows the mechanism with a political floor added.
- L4 · ECONOMICConsistentlag 0–30 days
Ghana's realised FOB and the 70% rule cross-border farmgate wedge
Ghana's 42,400 is 71.18% of a realised FOB of about 5.09 USD/kg; converted at the central banks' rates the two farmgate prices differ by about 1.53 USD/kg in Ghana's favour, the opposite sign to 2023/24.
- L5 · BEHAVIOURALConsistentlag 14–90 days
cross-border farmgate wedge direction and size of border flows during the main crop
A positive wedge pulls Ivorian beans east through Ghanaian licensed buying companies, as the 2023/24 wedge pulled Ghanaian beans west. COCOBOD reported on 30 April 2026 that the practice had spread across four border regions, paid with buyers' own funds, with seizures at Nkrankwanta: the direction is reported by the regulator, inside the mid-crop. The volume is unmeasured; COCOBOD weekly graded-and-sealed arrivals, CCC weekly port arrivals and purchases by Ghanaian region would close this link.
- L6 · LOGISTICALUntestedlag 60–120 days
Ghanaian purchases and shipments EU27 bean imports by origin (Comext)
EU imports from Ghana reached 28,083 t in August 2026 against 5,459 t a year earlier and 14,409 t in July. Those beans were shipped before the September decisions but after the March divergence; whether any of the rise is Ivorian-grown cannot be read from customs data, which record origin as declared.
- L7 · ECONOMICObservedlag 0–30 days
origin mix and contract vintage of arrivals EU import unit values by origin
Ghanaian beans landed in the EU at 4,317 EUR/t in August 2026, below the 5,075 of Ivorian beans and below the 5,188 of July: the vintage of the contracts behind each origin, not the spot price, sets the landed value month by month.
- L8 · ECONOMICUntestedlag 0–90 days
farmgate price against landed value margins of Ivorian grinders and bean cost of EU importers and chocolate makers
At 1,200 CFAF/kg the farmgate is 36% of what EU importers paid per kg of Ivorian beans in August 2026; the duty of 486 CFAF/kg and CCC levies take part of the difference. The Atlas holds no grinding-margin or processor cost series.
Preview: 5 of the 37 constants
Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source. 32 more, and the 11 bounded constraints recomputed from them, are in the export.
| Id | Constant | Value | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K1 | Côte d'Ivoire guaranteed farmgate price, 2026/27 main crop “The Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) set the price of cocoa at CFAF 1,200 per kilogram for the 2026/2027 season in Côte d’Ivoire on September 1, 2026, in Abidjan.” | 1,200 CFAF per kg | market | source, 2026-09-06 |
K2 | Côte d'Ivoire guaranteed farmgate price, 2025/26 main crop “Ce prix est en baisse de 1600 FCfa/kg par rapport à celui de la campagne principale qui était de 2800 FCfa/Kg.” | 2,800 CFAF per kg | market | source, 2026-03-05 |
K3 | Côte d'Ivoire guaranteed farmgate price, 2025/26 mid-crop, from 4 March 2026 “l’ouverture officielle de la campagne intermédiaire 2025-2026 du cacao, avec un prix garanti bord champ fixé à 1.200 FCFA le kilogramme, pour les fèves « bien triées, bien fermentées et bien séchées ».” | 1,200 CFAF per kg | market | source, 2026-03-04 |
K4 | Farmgate price under strict application of the stabilisation rule, CCC simulation, March 2026 “plusieurs simulations effectuées par le Conseil du Café-Cacao ont montré qu’avec un prix international d’environ 1.578 FCFA/kg, le prix bord champ ressortirait à 947 FCFA/kg si l’on appliquait strictement le mécanisme de stabilisation.” | 947 CFAF per kg | market | source, 2026-03-04 |
K5 | International reference price used in the CCC simulation, March 2026 “plusieurs simulations effectuées par le Conseil du Café-Cacao ont montré qu’avec un prix international d’environ 1.578 FCFA/kg, le prix bord champ ressortirait à 947 FCFA/kg si l’on appliquait strictement le mécanisme de stabilisation.” | 1,578 CFAF per kg | market | source, 2026-03-04 |
Preview: what the author concludes
4 conjectures by statement. Their quantities, the checks run against the constraints, what would prove each wrong, and the 5 alternative explanations with their discriminators are in the export.
- J1 · CROSS GEOGRAPHY · confidence low
What no source publishes is the reading of an Ivorian price decision in EU customs data by origin; the direction itself is public. COCOBOD told Reuters on 30 April 2026 that Ivorian beans were entering Ghana across four border regions, the reverse of 2023/24, and CocoaIntel (1 September 2026) and the Coffee Trading Academy (September 2026) published the price gap and its incentive. The conjecture: if the 1.53 USD/kg wedge moves a volume of the order of the 2023/24 precedent east during the main crop, Ghana's share of EU27 bean imports from the two origins pooled over November and December 2026 exceeds 34.1% (mean of the twenty monthly shares, 24.7%, plus one standard deviation, 9.4 points; the pooled share was 33.0% a year earlier), with imports from Ghana above what its 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast crop supports. The Ivorian side is no test on its own: the CCC itself expects 900,000 t of October to December arrivals against 1.1 million a year earlier and a main crop eight to ten weeks late, so Ivorian imports fall without any bean crossing. The quantity is a scale, the wedge times the precedent volume, not a flow estimate.
- J2 · CROSS SECTOR · confidence medium
EU importers and chocolate makers holding 2026/27 Ivorian forward contracts bought near the implied CIF reference land beans about 2.44 USD/kg below the September spot average; EU unit values of Ivorian beans in November 2026 to January 2027 therefore fall below 4,000 EUR/t even if the world price holds near 5.9 USD/kg, and the first-half input cost of European processors falls further than the futures curve shows.
- J3 · CROSS SECTOR · confidence medium
An Ivorian grinder buying beans at CFAF 1,200/kg in October to January pays 36% of what an EU importer paid per kg of Ivorian beans in August 2026, against 49% a year earlier at 2,800 and the October 2025 unit value; the 14.6% duty applies to its exports too, so the advantage is in the bean, not the tax. While beans stay west of the border, Ivorian grinding capacity is the beneficiary of the price decision.
- J4 · LOCAL · confidence medium
Ghana's side of the arbitrage is cash-limited: the first commercial paper tranche buys about 80,000 t at the producer price, 13 to 17% of the 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast crop, and the full GHS 14 billion about 330,000 t, 53 to 70% of it. If purchases in October to January, Ghanaian crop plus any inflow, outrun the tranches raised, licensed buying companies pay late and the wedge stops working on the Ghanaian side, as late payment pushed beans out of Ghana in 2023/24. In April 2026, however, buyers' funds were being spent on Ivorian beans while farmers went unpaid, so arrears divert the inflow before they stop it.
T1 · 2026-10-24 → 2027-02-28
EU bean imports by origin and Ivorian unit values to the December 2026 Comext release
- beans-east: Ghana's share of EU27 bean imports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, pooled over November and December 2026 (eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t over the sum of the two origin series, percent); threshold = mean of the twenty monthly shares of January 2025 to August 2026, 24.67%, plus one sample standard deviation, 9.43 points; the pooled share of November to December 2025 was 33.0%. December 2026 data are expected in the Comext release of the second half of February 2027.
>= 34.10by 2027-02-28 - beans-stay: Ghana's share of EU27 bean imports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, pooled over November and December 2026 (eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t over the sum of the two origin series, percent); threshold = mean of the twenty monthly shares of January 2025 to August 2026, 24.67%, plus one sample standard deviation, 9.43 points; the pooled share of November to December 2025 was 33.0%. December 2026 data are expected in the Comext release of the second half of February 2027.
< 34.10by 2027-02-28
Paths by period and implications by organisation: in the export.
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