{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain with statuses, 5 constants, statements of conjectures and trajectories). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","title":"Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana cocoa farmgate prices diverge, 2026/27 season","date":"2026-09-01","mechanism":"REGULATION","geography":[{"code":"CI","name":"Côte d'Ivoire (cocoa belt, Soubré–Daloa)","latitude":6,"longitude":-6.5},{"code":"GH","name":"Ghana (Western North cocoa region)","latitude":6.2,"longitude":-2.8},{"code":"NL","name":"Amsterdam (EU cocoa import gateway)","latitude":52.4,"longitude":4.9},{"code":"BE","name":"Antwerp (EU cocoa import gateway)","latitude":51.26,"longitude":4.4}],"source_url":"https://africa24tv.com/cote-divoire-cocoa-cfaf-1200-kg-for-the-2026-2027-season/","summary":"On 1 September 2026 Côte d'Ivoire set the 2026/27 main-crop farmgate price at CFAF 1,200/kg, down 57% from CFAF 2,800; Ghana opened its season on 25 September at GH¢42,400/t, up 2.4% from GH¢41,392, under a new law guaranteeing farmers at least 70% of realised FOB. The world cocoa price (World Bank, ICCO average) fell from 10.75 USD/kg in January 2025 to 3.24 in March 2026 and recovered to 5.92 in September 2026. EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire were 41,011 t in July and 40,606 t in August 2026 (43,353 t and 36,405 t a year earlier), with January–August flat year on year at about 443,900 t; imports from Ghana reached 28,083 t in August 2026 against 5,459 t in August 2025, and 165,798 t over January–August against 106,719 t. The EU import unit value of Ivorian beans fell from 7,818 EUR/t in January 2025 to 5,075 EUR/t in August 2026. 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administered cocoa prices, one border: the EU customs ledger will show whether Ivorian beans go to Ghana","lead":"Côte d'Ivoire pays its farmers CFAF 1,200 per kilogram for the 2026/27 main crop and Ghana pays GH¢42,400 per tonne, a gap of about 1.5 USD/kg in Ghana's favour, the reverse of 2023/24. The world price behind both fell from 10.75 USD/kg in January 2025 to 3.24 in March 2026 and recovered to 5.92 in September, and EU27 imports of beans from Ghana reached 28,083 t in August 2026 against 5,459 t a year earlier. This edition reads the EU customs ledger by origin to see which way the beans go, and who sits on each route.","published_at":"2026-10-24","vectors":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"cocoa-price-usd-kg","stat":"first","period":null,"value":10.75},{"id":"F2","series":"cocoa-price-usd-kg","stat":"min","period":null,"value":3.24},{"id":"F3","series":"cocoa-price-usd-kg","stat":"last","period":null,"value":5.92},{"id":"F4","series":"cocoa-price-usd-kg","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":4.4},{"id":"F5","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":28082.703999999998},{"id":"F6","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-08","value":5458.534},{"id":"F7","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","stat":"mean","period":null,"value":17039.984600000003},{"id":"F8","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":14409.378},{"id":"F9","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","stat":"max","period":null,"value":39639.706000000006},{"id":"F10","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-12","value":16141.726000000002},{"id":"F12","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-11","value":13910.946},{"id":"F13","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":40605.825000000004},{"id":"F14","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","stat":"mean","period":null,"value":51227.56275},{"id":"F15","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","stat":"min","period":null,"value":24318.441000000003},{"id":"F17","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-01","value":49137.982},{"id":"F18","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-11","value":36787.982},{"id":"F19","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","stat":"max","period":null,"value":8655.537709226684},{"id":"F20","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","stat":"last","period":null,"value":5074.712827531517},{"id":"F21","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","stat":"last","period":null,"value":4317.206028308386},{"id":"F22","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","stat":"first","period":null,"value":7817.842633869749},{"id":"F25","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":5187.912136110247},{"id":"F28","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-08","value":36404.822},{"id":"F29","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":41010.679000000004},{"id":"F30","series":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-07","value":43353.39000000001}],"watch":[{"indicator":"EU27 imports of cocoa beans by partner, monthly, Eurostat Comext DS-045409 (December 2026 due in late February 2027)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/DS-045409"},{"indicator":"COCOBOD graded-and-sealed purchases and producer price releases","source_url":"https://cocobod.gh/"},{"indicator":"World Bank Pink Sheet monthly cocoa price","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"ghana-december-arrivals-above-own-crop","signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","statement":"If the farmgate wedge of about 1.53 USD/kg moves Ivorian beans east during the main crop, EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Ghana in December 2026 reach at least 20,000 t, the top of what Ghana's own 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast crop supports (16,142 t in December 2025), with COCOBOD's graded-and-sealed purchases running ahead of that forecast; the December figure is due in the Comext release of late February 2027.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Ghana, December 2026, tonnes (Eurostat Comext DS-045409)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/DS-045409","series_key":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":20000}},{"name":"Ghana's share of EU27 bean imports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, pooled over November and December 2026, percent (Eurostat Comext DS-045409)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/DS-045409","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":34.1}},{"name":"COCOBOD graded-and-sealed purchases to December 2026 against the Cocoa Marketing Company forecast","source_url":"https://cocobod.gh/","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-02-28","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"ivorian-december-imports-late-crop-band","signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","statement":"If the Ivorian main crop runs eight to ten weeks late, as the Conseil du Café-Cacao expects, EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire in December 2026 fall between 20,000 and 40,000 t, below the 51,228 t monthly mean since January 2025, whatever happens at the border; a December figure above 40,000 t would mean the crop was not late enough to move Ghana's share on its own.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire, December 2026, tonnes, lower bound (Eurostat Comext DS-045409)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/DS-045409","series_key":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":20000}},{"name":"EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire, December 2026, tonnes, upper bound (Eurostat Comext DS-045409)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/DS-045409","series_key":"eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":40000}}],"horizon_date":"2027-02-28","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"ivorian-unit-value-below-four-thousand","signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","statement":"If the World Bank cocoa price stays at or above 5.5 USD/kg through December 2026, the EU import unit value of Ivorian beans still falls below 4,000 EUR/t in at least one month from November 2026 to January 2027, because those beans were sold forward near a reference of about 3.48 USD/kg; unit values at or above 4,800 EUR/t in each of the three months would contradict it. January 2027 is due in the Comext release of mid-March 2027.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"EU import unit value of Ivorian cocoa beans, monthly, EUR per tonne (Eurostat Comext DS-045409, value over quantity)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/DS-045409","series_key":"eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","threshold":{"op":"<","value":4000}},{"name":"World Bank Pink Sheet cocoa price, monthly, USD per kg","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","series_key":"cocoa-price-usd-kg","threshold":{"op":">=","value":5.5}}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"conseil-cafe-cacao","name":"Conseil du Café-Cacao","country":"CI","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses","website":"https://www.conseilcafecacao.ci/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fratmat.info/article/2644518/economie/systeme-national-de-tracabilite-le-cacao-ivoirien-afflue-vers-les-ports","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Du 7 au 13 septembre 2026, 26 000 tonnes de fèves de cacao, rapporte le Conseil café-cacao, ont été achetées auprès des producteurs au prix garanti de 1 200 FCFA le kilogramme."},"reasoning":"The regulator sets and reports the guaranteed CFAF 1,200/kg price and tracks purchases through its traceability system, so it carries the price decision. That a wider gap with Ghana's price shifts beans across the border, or delays forward sales, is inferred and not shown here.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","cocoa-belt-ci-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"ghana-cocoa-board","name":"Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD)","country":"GH","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses","website":"https://cocobod.gh/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://cocobod.gh/news/review-of-the-producer-price-of-cocoa-for-the-202627-cocoa-season","date":"2026-09-25","quote":"The new producer price is also expected to contribute significantly to efforts to curb the smuggling of cocoa."},"reasoning":"COCOBOD's dated release of 25 September 2026 sets the 2026/27 producer price (GH¢42,400 per tonne, 71.18% of realised gross FOB) and ties it to curbing smuggling; in April 2026 its director of special services reported Ivorian beans entering four border regions. A higher price in Ghana draws Ivorian beans east, which raises purchases and its funding needs; the volume is not shown.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","cocoa-belt-gh-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"cocoa-capital-plc","name":"Cocoa Capital PLC","country":"GH","sector":"NACE K64.99 Other financial service activities n.e.c.","website":"https://www.cocoacapitalplc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cocoacapitalplc.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Cocoa Capital PLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Ghana Cocoa Board, is raising up to GHS 16.3 billion through the Domestic Cocoa Notes Programme to support cocoa purchases."},"reasoning":"The vehicle funds Ghana's crop purchases at the new producer price, so the volume bought and the FOB realised determine how much paper it must roll. Extra volume from cross-border inflows would raise that need; this is inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-eur"]}]},{"slug":"pbc-limited","name":"PBC Limited","country":"GH","sector":"NACE G46.21 Wholesale of grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds and animal feeds (cocoa buying)","website":"https://www.pbcgh.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.pbcgh.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"PBC Haulage Hauling of cocoa from the societies to the Depots for grading & sealing."},"reasoning":"PBC is a licensed buying company that hauls cocoa from farmer societies to COCOBOD depots, so it sits on Ghana's internal buying chain. Its exposure to buyer financing arrears and to beans arriving from Côte d'Ivoire is inferred from the LBC role, not shown on this page.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","cocoa-belt-gh-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"kuapa-kokoo","name":"Kuapa Kokoo Co-operative Union Limited","country":"GH","sector":"NACE A01.27 Growing of beverage crops (farmer cooperative)","website":"https://www.kuapakokoo.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.kuapakokoo.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Cocoa Production & Marketing We ensure quality cocoa reaches global markets while securing fair prices for our farmers."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Ghanaian farmer cooperative that markets its members' cocoa. That its members gain from a producer price raised to GH¢42,400/t while Ivorian farmers face CFAF 1,200/kg is inferred from the two official prices, not shown here.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","cocoa-belt-gh-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"cocoa-processing-company","name":"Cocoa Processing Company PLC","country":"GH","sector":"NACE C10.82 Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery","website":"https://cpc.com.gh/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.foodbusinessmea.com/?p=2163041","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"GHANA – Cocoa Processing Company PLC has reported a deeper loss for the six months ended March 31, 2026, as lower production volumes, higher input costs and increased finance expenses weighed on its financial performance."},"reasoning":"The Tema processor is shown cutting volumes and losing money on input costs in H1 2026. Whether a higher Ghana bean price in 2026/27 raises its input cost further is inferred from its reliance on local beans, not shown in this report.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","cocoa-belt-gh-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"saco-barry-callebaut-cote-divoire","name":"Société Africaine de Cacao (SACO), Barry Callebaut","country":"CI","sector":"NACE C10.82 Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery","website":"https://www.barry-callebaut.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.aip.ci/aip-audience-le-groupe-barry-callebaut-saco-veut-tripler-sa-capacite-de-production-de-chocolat-en-cote-divoire/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Avec deux unités industrielles et environ 3 000 personnes mobilisées à travers ses activités et ses prestataires en Côte d’Ivoire, Barry Callebaut entend poursuivre son développement local."},"reasoning":"The quote places Barry Callebaut's two Ivorian plants (SACO) on the local grinding chain. A grinder buying at a regulated CFAF 1,200/kg while world prices recovered to 5.92 USD/kg may see cheaper beans; that margin effect is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","cocoa-belt-ci-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"icco","name":"International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)","country":"CI","sector":"NACE U99.00 Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies","website":"https://www.icco.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.icco.org/august-2026-quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"During the quarter, cocoa futures prices demonstrated that market sentiment remined highly sensitive to indicators on changes in demand, weather developments and production risks in major cocoa producing countries."},"reasoning":"ICCO publishes the daily price behind the World Bank series and the trade statistics used by the market. The bulletin does not mention the 2026/27 farmgate divergence; ICCO's role as reference and forum on it is inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","cocoa-belt-ci-rain-mm","cocoa-belt-gh-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"barry-callebaut","name":"Barry Callebaut AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE C10.82 Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery","website":"https://www.barry-callebaut.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.vermoegenszentrum.ch/boersen-und-maerkte/news/barry-callebaut-plant-deutlichen-ausbau-der-elfenbeinkueste","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Für Barry Callebaut ist das westafrikanische Land ebenfalls eine wichtige Rohstoffquelle und ein bedeutender Verarbeitungsstandort mit Werken in Abidjan und San Pedro."},"reasoning":"The group buys and grinds Ivorian beans and is an ECA member importing into Europe. Lower Ivorian unit values (5,075 EUR/t in August 2026) would lower its bean cost; the size of that effect depends on forward cover and is not shown.","series_keys":["eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","cocoa-price-usd-kg"]}]},{"slug":"cargill","name":"Cargill, Incorporated (Cargill Cocoa & Chocolate)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 311351 Chocolate and confectionery manufacturing from cacao beans","website":"https://www.cargill.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.snackandbakery.com/articles/103266-cargill-completes-100m-expansion-of-cote-divoire-cocoa-processing-facilities","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Cargill has completed a $100 million expansion of its cocoa processing facilities in Yopougon, Côte d’Ivoire, a move that increases the company’s cocoa-grinding capacity."},"reasoning":"The article (2021) shows Cargill grinding in Abidjan; a separate report shows its Tema plant in Ghana. It is an ECA converter with its EU arm in Amsterdam. Gains from cheaper Ivorian beans and exposure to dearer Ghanaian beans are inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","cocoa-belt-ci-rain-mm","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t"]}]},{"slug":"ofi","name":"ofi (olam food ingredients)","country":"GB","sector":"NACE G46.37 Wholesale of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices","website":"https://www.ofi.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ofi.com/products-and-ingredients/cocoa.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"With a strong presence in key cocoa-growing regions such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Brazil, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea and Indonesia, our size lets us optimize sourcing and swiftly respond to shifts in supply and demand."},"reasoning":"ofi originates in both countries and in the competing origins, so it can shift sourcing as the farmgate gap opens. The direction of its net gain is inferred; the page does not discuss the 2026/27 prices.","series_keys":["eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","cocoa-price-usd-kg"]}]},{"slug":"touton","name":"Touton S.A.","country":"FR","sector":"NACE G46.37 Wholesale of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices","website":"https://www.touton.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.touton.com/products/cocoa","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Over the years, Touton has invested in facilities for the collection and export of cocoa in Africa’s top cocoa producing countries: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon."},"reasoning":"Touton collects and exports in both countries and in Nigeria and Cameroon, so it trades across the price gap. Whether it gains on Ivorian purchases or loses on Ghanaian ones is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","cocoa-price-usd-kg"]}]},{"slug":"sucden","name":"Sucres et Denrées (Sucden)","country":"FR","sector":"NACE G46.37 Wholesale of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices","website":"https://www.sucden.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sucden.com/en/where-we-operate/ivory-coast","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Sucden is an Ivory Coast licensed cocoa exporter. We have a well-established business base in the country from which we provide dedicated services to support the Ivory Coast cocoa industry as a whole and market its products worldwide."},"reasoning":"Sucden exports from Abidjan and San Pedro under a CCC licence and imports into Europe as an ECA trader. A cheaper regulated bean may widen its export margin if forward sales were priced higher; this is inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","cocoa-belt-ci-rain-mm","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-eur"]}]},{"slug":"ecom-agroindustrial","name":"ECOM Agroindustrial Corp. (ECOM Cocoa)","country":"CH","sector":"NACE G46.37 Wholesale of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices","website":"https://www.ecomtrading.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ecomtrading.com/products-services/cocoa/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Ghana AgroECOM & Unicom Facts AgroECOM established in 2000 Unicom established in 2014"},"reasoning":"ECOM's cocoa locations page lists AgroECOM and Unicom in Ghana and Zamacom in Côte d'Ivoire, and it is an ECA trader. The effect of the price gap on its book is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","cocoa-price-usd-kg"]}]},{"slug":"mondelez","name":"Mondelēz International, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 311352 Confectionery manufacturing from purchased chocolate","website":"https://www.mondelezinternational.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cocoalife.org/progress/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"We expanded the coverage of CLMRS to reach 100% of Cocoa Life program communities in West Africa, including Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria by the end of 2025."},"reasoning":"Mondelēz sources through Cocoa Life in both countries, so it is a remote buyer of these beans. Lower bean costs after the price fall would ease its input cost with a lag set by hedging; that is inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t"]}]},{"slug":"ferrero","name":"Ferrero International S.A.","country":"LU","sector":"NACE C10.82 Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery","website":"https://www.ferrero.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ferrero.com/int/en/people-planet/source-our-ingredients-sustainably/cocoa","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Our rich cocoa comes from cocoa farmers across the globe, but mainly from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana accounting for 65% of the global cocoa production, complemented by Ecuador and Nigeria."},"reasoning":"Ferrero sources mainly from the two countries, so the farmgate gap and the world price feed its input cost. The size and timing of the effect are inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t"]}]},{"slug":"lindt-spruengli","name":"Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE C10.82 Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery","website":"https://www.lindt-spruengli.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.lindt-spruengli.com/sustainability","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"As part of our focus area invest in the livelihoods of farming families, we aim to implement a Living Income Program to support 5,000 cocoa farmers in West Africa by 2027."},"reasoning":"The page shows Lindt buying cocoa in West Africa but does not name Côte d'Ivoire or Ghana or the share bought there. Its gain from cheaper beans, and the pressure on its living-income programme from a lower Ivorian farmgate price, are inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"hershey","name":"The Hershey Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 311351 Chocolate and confectionery manufacturing from cacao beans","website":"https://www.thehersheycompany.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.thehersheycompany.com/en_us/home/sustainability/sustainability-focus-areas/cocoa.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Since our founding 130 years ago, Hershey has continued work to expand the education system in cocoa-farming communities in West Africa."},"reasoning":"Hershey is a remote US buyer working in West African cocoa communities; the page does not name either country or its volumes. Its exposure is via the world price, which fell to 3.24 USD/kg and recovered to 5.92; the link to the farmgate gap is inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-amsterdam","name":"Havenbedrijf Amsterdam N.V. (Port of Amsterdam)","country":"NL","sector":"NACE H52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.portofamsterdam.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/cocoa-cocoa-products/netherlands/market-potential","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The Port of Amsterdam is the largest cocoa port in the world. Its location makes it a strategic import destination for cocoa and cocoa products."},"reasoning":"CBI shows Amsterdam as the main cocoa import port, and the same page names Côte d'Ivoire as the largest bean supplier to the Dutch market. How much of the August 2026 rise in EU imports from Ghana landed in Amsterdam rather than Antwerp or elsewhere is not shown.","series_keys":["eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-100kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-100kg"]}]},{"slug":"intercontinental-exchange","name":"Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE Futures U.S. and ICE Futures Europe)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 523210 Securities and commodity exchanges","website":"https://www.ice.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ice.com/products/7/Cocoa-Futures","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Group A (deliverable at a premium of $160/ton) includes the Growths of Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo."},"reasoning":"ICE lists the cocoa futures that set the world price both boards sell forward against, and Ghanaian and Ivorian beans are deliverable. Its volumes and margins respond to price volatility; the link to the farmgate decision is inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg"]}]},{"slug":"european-cocoa-association","name":"European Cocoa Association (ECA)","country":"BE","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.eurococoa.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.eurococoa.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"About us 63 companies 90% European cocoa bean grinding 85% European industrial chocolate production"},"reasoning":"ECA's members grind almost all beans imported into Europe and its quarterly grind statistics are read against the import flows. The association's position on the 2026/27 prices is not shown.","series_keys":["eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"federation-of-cocoa-commerce","name":"Federation of Cocoa Commerce Ltd (FCC)","country":"GB","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.cocoafederation.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cocoafederation.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The FCC was established to serve the growing trade in physical cocoa. Our aim is to develop a single robust commercial framework for the cocoa market, to achieve contract harmonisation and provide supporting services and education programmes."},"reasoning":"FCC contract rules and arbitration govern most physical bean contracts from both origins into Europe. Disputes over defaulted or renegotiated forward sales after the price swings would come to it; that is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"european-commission-eudr","name":"European Commission (EU Deforestation Regulation)","country":"BE","sector":"NACE O84.11 General public administration activities","website":"https://commission.europa.eu/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/forests/deforestation/regulation-deforestation-free-products_en","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The main driver of deforestation is the expansion of agricultural land linked to the production of commodities like cattle, wood, cocoa, soy, palm oil, coffee, rubber, and some of their derived products, such as leather, chocolate, tyres, or furniture."},"reasoning":"Cocoa is in EUDR scope, so beans entering the EU need due-diligence traceability; both countries tie this to their own traceability systems. Whether smuggled beans break traceability and EU eligibility is inferred.","series_keys":["eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-gh-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"fairtrade-international","name":"Fairtrade International","country":"DE","sector":"NACE S94.99 Activities of other membership organisations n.e.c.","website":"https://www.fairtrade.net/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fairtrade.net/en/get-involved/Press-centre/fairtrade-announces-new-living-income-reference-prices-for-cocoa.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The new Ivorian Living Income Reference Price value is 558 CFA francs (47 percent) higher than the current Ivorian farmgate price of 1,200 CFA francs per kilo."},"reasoning":"Fairtrade compares its reference price directly with the CFAF 1,200/kg farmgate price, which places it on this chain. A wider gap raises the premium certified buyers pay; how much volume that covers is not shown.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","cocoa-belt-ci-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"rainforest-alliance","name":"Rainforest Alliance","country":"US","sector":"NACE S94.99 Activities of other membership organisations n.e.c.","website":"https://www.rainforest-alliance.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.rainforest-alliance.org/for-business/cocoa/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The Rainforest Alliance cocoa certification program is the world’s largest-scale initiative to drive more sustainable cocoa farming."},"reasoning":"The page does not name Côte d'Ivoire or Ghana, but Ferrero's page shows certification schemes like this one cover its West African cocoa. The effect of lower Ivorian farmgate prices on certified farmers' incomes and premiums is inferred.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","cocoa-belt-ci-rain-mm"]}]},{"slug":"fitch-solutions","name":"Fitch Solutions","country":"GB","sector":"NACE M73.20 Market research and public opinion polling","website":"https://www.fitchsolutions.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.myjoyonline.com/cocoa-prices-risen-by-95-since-march-2026-to-average-us5670-in-2026/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"It continued that higher cocoa prices also increase the incentive for farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire to sell outside official channels, which could amplify export losses in both markets."},"reasoning":"The analyst explicitly links the price recovery to sales outside official channels in both countries. It is adjacent: it shapes investors' expectations but does not trade beans. Its forecast is not a measured flow.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t"]}]},{"slug":"anecacao","name":"Asociación Nacional de Exportadores e Industriales de Cacao del Ecuador (ANECACAO)","country":"EC","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://anecacao.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://anecacao.com/el-mercado-del-cacao-despues-de-la-tormenta-lecciones-de-la-mas-grande-crisis-global/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Conforme el mercado se inestabilizaba, los dos gigantes que representan la mayor parte de la oferta mundial –Costa de Marfil y Ghana, se unieron mediante la Iniciativa de Cacao Costa de Marfil-Ghana (CIGCI)– mas se encontraron en el ojo del huracán."},"reasoning":"Ecuador's exporters' association tracks the two leading origins as its main competitors. Its members sell at market-linked prices, so a cheaper Ivorian regulated bean competes with them in Europe; the effect on Ecuador's EU sales is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"oncc-cameroon","name":"Office National du Cacao et du Café (ONCC / NCCB)","country":"CM","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses","website":"https://www.oncc.cm/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.oncc.cm/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Prices for Oct 23 2026: Cocoa [ CIF: 3293FCFA/kg FOB: 3214FCFA/kg ]"},"reasoning":"Cameroon publishes a market-linked FOB of CFAF 3,214/kg against Côte d'Ivoire's regulated CFAF 1,200/kg farmgate price, so Cameroonian beans compete in the same CFA-franc zone. The farmgate share and any cross-border flow are not shown.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"ecookim","name":"ECOOKIM (Union des Sociétés Coopératives Kimbè)","country":"CI","sector":"NACE A01.27 Growing of beverage crops (cocoa cooperative union)","website":"https://www.ecookim.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ecookim.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Le projet Ecoogreenday est initié et financer par ECOOKIM, une union de 30 coopératives avec plus de 32 000 producteurs qui exporte des fèves de cacao en Europe et en Asie."},"reasoning":"The site shows an Ivorian union of 30 cooperatives with more than 32,000 producers exporting beans to Europe and Asia. That its members sell at the guaranteed CFAF 1,200/kg while a bean across the border fetches 74% more, and that an eastward flow bypasses its export and traceability records, is inferred from the two official prices, not shown here.","series_keys":["cocoa-price-usd-kg","eu-cocoa-bean-imports-ci-t","eu-cocoa-bean-unit-value-ci-eur-t","cocoa-belt-ci-rain-mm"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"Before the Ivorian main crop peaks in November to January, who takes the bean grown within reach of the Ghana border: a Ghanaian licensed buying company paying GH¢42,400 per tonne for it on COCOBOD's account, an Ivorian grinder keeping it at CFAF 1,200 per kilogram, or an EU importer in Amsterdam or Antwerp landing it under a forward contract, and which of COCOBOD, the Conseil du Café-Cacao, the grinders, the chocolate makers and the Ivorian producers gains or loses on each route?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Côte d'Ivoire guaranteed farmgate price, 2026/27 main crop","value":1200,"unit":"CFAF per kg","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://africa24tv.com/cote-divoire-cocoa-cfaf-1200-kg-for-the-2026-2027-season/","source_date":"2026-09-06","quote":"The Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) set the price of cocoa at CFAF 1,200 per kilogram for the 2026/2027 season in Côte d’Ivoire on September 1, 2026, in Abidjan.","note":"The CCC's own communiqué was unreachable (conseilcafecacao.ci fails TLS verification, then answers HTTP 401), so a press report is cited. Fraternité Matin (2026-10-24) relays CCC traceability data: 26,000 t bought from producers at the guaranteed CFAF 1,200/kg between 7 and 13 September 2026."},{"id":"K2","name":"Côte d'Ivoire guaranteed farmgate price, 2025/26 main crop","value":2800,"unit":"CFAF per kg","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://fr.allafrica.com/stories/202603050751.html","source_date":"2026-03-05","quote":"Ce prix est en baisse de 1600 FCfa/kg par rapport à celui de la campagne principale qui était de 2800 FCfa/Kg.","note":"Fraternité Matin via allAfrica, reporting the Minister of Agriculture's press conference of 4 March 2026."},{"id":"K3","name":"Côte d'Ivoire guaranteed farmgate price, 2025/26 mid-crop, from 4 March 2026","value":1200,"unit":"CFAF per kg","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://www.aip.ci/?p=328397","source_date":"2026-03-04","quote":"l’ouverture officielle de la campagne intermédiaire 2025-2026 du cacao, avec un prix garanti bord champ fixé à 1.200 FCFA le kilogramme, pour les fèves « bien triées, bien fermentées et bien séchées ».","note":"Agence Ivoirienne de Presse. The cut from 2,800 to 1,200 dates from 4 March 2026; the 1 September decision kept 1,200 for the main crop. The Ivorian-Ghanaian wedge therefore opened in March, not in September."},{"id":"K4","name":"Farmgate price under strict application of the stabilisation rule, CCC simulation, March 2026","value":947,"unit":"CFAF per kg","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://www.aip.ci/?p=328397","source_date":"2026-03-04","quote":"plusieurs simulations effectuées par le Conseil du Café-Cacao ont montré qu’avec un prix international d’environ 1.578 FCFA/kg, le prix bord champ ressortirait à 947 FCFA/kg si l’on appliquait strictement le mécanisme de stabilisation.","note":"The government set 1,200 instead; the same article puts the cost of that gap at a subsidy of 231.247 billion CFAF."},{"id":"K5","name":"International reference price used in the CCC simulation, March 2026","value":1578,"unit":"CFAF per kg","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://www.aip.ci/?p=328397","source_date":"2026-03-04","quote":"plusieurs simulations effectuées par le Conseil du Café-Cacao ont montré qu’avec un prix international d’environ 1.578 FCFA/kg, le prix bord champ ressortirait à 947 FCFA/kg si l’on appliquait strictement le mécanisme de stabilisation.","note":"947 / 1,578 = 60.0%: the simulation applies the 60% rule to a CIF reference, not to the spot price."}],"constants_total":37,"constraints":[{"id":"C1","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C2","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C3","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C4","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C5","kind":"CAPACITY"},{"id":"C6","kind":"CONTRACT"},{"id":"C7","kind":"CONTRACT"},{"id":"C8","kind":"REGULATORY"},{"id":"C9","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C10","kind":"REGULATORY"},{"id":"C11","kind":"SUPPLY"}],"constraints_total":11,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"world cocoa price (ICCO average, New York and London)","to":"EU import unit values of Ivorian and Ghanaian beans","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":120},"statement":"The world price fell from 10.75 USD/kg in January 2025 to 3.24 in March 2026 and recovered to 5.92 in September; the EU unit value of Ivorian beans followed with a lag, from a peak of 8,656 EUR/t in October 2025 to 5,075 in August 2026, and Ghanaian beans landed at 4,317 EUR/t in August."},{"id":"L2","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"world price during the forward-sales window, March to June 2026","to":"CIF reference of the 2026/27 Ivorian main crop","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":90,"max":240},"statement":"The CCC sells at least 70% of the expected crop forward before harvest; the reference implied by the 1,200 price, about 3.48 USD/kg, sits inside the March to June 2026 spot range (3.24 to 4.40), which is what a book sold through that window would produce. The Atlas holds no forward-sales series."},{"id":"L3","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"CIF reference and the 60% rule","to":"Ivorian farmgate decisions of 4 March and 1 September 2026","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"Applied strictly the rule gave 947 CFAF/kg in March; the government set 1,200 and kept it on 1 September, 57% below the 2,800 of the 2025/26 main crop that had been sold forward near the peak. The decision follows the mechanism with a political floor added."},{"id":"L4","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Ghana's realised FOB and the 70% rule","to":"cross-border farmgate wedge","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"Ghana's 42,400 is 71.18% of a realised FOB of about 5.09 USD/kg; converted at the central banks' rates the two farmgate prices differ by about 1.53 USD/kg in Ghana's favour, the opposite sign to 2023/24."},{"id":"L5","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"cross-border farmgate wedge","to":"direction and size of border flows during the main crop","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":14,"max":90},"statement":"A positive wedge pulls Ivorian beans east through Ghanaian licensed buying companies, as the 2023/24 wedge pulled Ghanaian beans west. COCOBOD reported on 30 April 2026 that the practice had spread across four border regions, paid with buyers' own funds, with seizures at Nkrankwanta: the direction is reported by the regulator, inside the mid-crop. The volume is unmeasured; COCOBOD weekly graded-and-sealed arrivals, CCC weekly port arrivals and purchases by Ghanaian region would close this link."},{"id":"L6","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Ghanaian purchases and shipments","to":"EU27 bean imports by origin (Comext)","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":60,"max":120},"statement":"EU imports from Ghana reached 28,083 t in August 2026 against 5,459 t a year earlier and 14,409 t in July. Those beans were shipped before the September decisions but after the March divergence; whether any of the rise is Ivorian-grown cannot be read from customs data, which record origin as declared."},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"origin mix and contract vintage of arrivals","to":"EU import unit values by origin","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"Ghanaian beans landed in the EU at 4,317 EUR/t in August 2026, below the 5,075 of Ivorian beans and below the 5,188 of July: the vintage of the contracts behind each origin, not the spot price, sets the landed value month by month."},{"id":"L8","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"farmgate price against landed value","to":"margins of Ivorian grinders and bean cost of EU importers and chocolate makers","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":90},"statement":"At 1,200 CFAF/kg the farmgate is 36% of what EU importers paid per kg of Ivorian beans in August 2026; the duty of 486 CFAF/kg and CCC levies take part of the difference. The Atlas holds no grinding-margin or processor cost series."}],"alternatives":[{"id":"A1","status":"SUPPORTED"},{"id":"A2","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A3","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A4","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A5","status":"OPEN"}],"alternatives_total":5,"conjectures":[{"locked":true,"id":"J1","statement":"What no source publishes is the reading of an Ivorian price decision in EU customs data by origin; the direction itself is public. COCOBOD told Reuters on 30 April 2026 that Ivorian beans were entering Ghana across four border regions, the reverse of 2023/24, and CocoaIntel (1 September 2026) and the Coffee Trading Academy (September 2026) published the price gap and its incentive. The conjecture: if the 1.53 USD/kg wedge moves a volume of the order of the 2023/24 precedent east during the main crop, Ghana's share of EU27 bean imports from the two origins pooled over November and December 2026 exceeds 34.1% (mean of the twenty monthly shares, 24.7%, plus one standard deviation, 9.4 points; the pooled share was 33.0% a year earlier), with imports from Ghana above what its 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast crop supports. The Ivorian side is no test on its own: the CCC itself expects 900,000 t of October to December arrivals against 1.1 million a year earlier and a main crop eight to ten weeks late, so Ivorian imports fall without any bean crossing. The quantity is a scale, the wedge times the precedent volume, not a flow estimate.","scope":"CROSS_GEOGRAPHY","confidence":"LOW","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J2","statement":"EU importers and chocolate makers holding 2026/27 Ivorian forward contracts bought near the implied CIF reference land beans about 2.44 USD/kg below the September spot average; EU unit values of Ivorian beans in November 2026 to January 2027 therefore fall below 4,000 EUR/t even if the world price holds near 5.9 USD/kg, and the first-half input cost of European processors falls further than the futures curve shows.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J3","statement":"An Ivorian grinder buying beans at CFAF 1,200/kg in October to January pays 36% of what an EU importer paid per kg of Ivorian beans in August 2026, against 49% a year earlier at 2,800 and the October 2025 unit value; the 14.6% duty applies to its exports too, so the advantage is in the bean, not the tax. While beans stay west of the border, Ivorian grinding capacity is the beneficiary of the price decision.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J4","statement":"Ghana's side of the arbitrage is cash-limited: the first commercial paper tranche buys about 80,000 t at the producer price, 13 to 17% of the 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast crop, and the full GHS 14 billion about 330,000 t, 53 to 70% of it. If purchases in October to January, Ghanaian crop plus any inflow, outrun the tranches raised, licensed buying companies pay late and the wedge stops working on the Ghanaian side, as late payment pushed beans out of Ghana in 2023/24. In April 2026, however, buyers' funds were being spent on Ivorian beans while farmers went unpaid, so arrears divert the inflow before they stop it.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"FREE"}],"trajectories":[{"locked":true,"id":"T1","name":"EU bean imports by origin and Ivorian unit values to the December 2026 Comext release","horizon":{"from":"2026-10-24","to":"2027-02-28"},"tier":"PREMIUM","branches":[{"id":"beans-east","condition":{"indicator":"Ghana's share of EU27 bean imports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, pooled over November and December 2026 (eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t over the sum of the two origin series, percent); threshold = mean of the twenty monthly shares of January 2025 to August 2026, 24.67%, plus one sample standard deviation, 9.43 points; the pooled share of November to December 2025 was 33.0%. December 2026 data are expected in the Comext release of the second half of February 2027.","series_key":null,"op":">=","value":34.1,"by":"2027-02-28"}},{"id":"beans-stay","condition":{"indicator":"Ghana's share of EU27 bean imports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, pooled over November and December 2026 (eu-cocoa-bean-imports-gh-t over the sum of the two origin series, percent); threshold = mean of the twenty monthly shares of January 2025 to August 2026, 24.67%, plus one sample standard deviation, 9.43 points; the pooled share of November to December 2025 was 33.0%. December 2026 data are expected in the Comext release of the second half of February 2027.","series_key":null,"op":"<","value":34.1,"by":"2027-02-28"}}]}],"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-10-24","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes":"Counter-analysis of 2026-10-24 in docs/night-2026-10-24/cocoa-farmgate-divergence-ci-gh-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md. All 27 figures, ten bounds and four quantities recompute exactly; Eurostat and World Bank hashes match. No REJECT. REWORK on constants: a dated COCOBOD primary of 25 September 2026 (cocobod.gh/news/review-of-the-producer-price-of-cocoa-for-the-202627-cocoa-season) exists for K8, K9, K10 and the 12 February 2026 reform release for K12, K28, K29 (it gives rollovers of 333,767 t, against K27's 370,000); K15's URL answers 404 (value right); K14's note is wrong, COCOBOD and CMC forecast 470,000 to 620,000 t for 2026/27 against about 760,000 t delivered in 2025/26 (Reuters, 3 September 2026), which re-bases C5 and J4. REWORK on L5 and J1: the eastward flow is already reported by COCOBOD (Reuters, 30 April 2026: Ivorian beans bought with LBC funds across four border regions, the reverse of 2023/24), so the crossing's novelty is the Comext reading only, and J1's Ivorian falsifier is confounded by the CCC's own outlook of about 900,000 t of October to December arrivals against 1.1 million a year earlier with the main crop 8 to 10 weeks late. REWORK on T1: the 25,000 t per month condition was exceeded in January 2025, February 2026 and August 2026 without any inflow and is reachable by Ghana's own financed crop, so it does not discriminate beans-east from A1; January 2027 Comext is released after the condition's date. Organisations: add an Ivorian producer organisation (ECOOKIM has a site); mondelez and ghana-cocoa-board URLs to update. Accepted: the exchange-rate constants, the 60 percent rule read as a forward-sales reference (Reuters: the 2026/27 price rests on average forward sales made March to June, more than 1.1 million t), the 4 March opening of the wedge, J2 and J3 with caveats on CIF costs and the grinders' barème. Disagreements are kept in the counter-analysis, not erased here. Rework round 1 applied on 2026-10-24T02:56Z: items 1 (K8, K9, K10, K12, K28, K29 re-sourced to the COCOBOD releases of 25 September 2026 and 12 February 2026; K14 note corrected; K15 URL replaced; K27 corrected to the regulator's 333,767 t), 2 (K30 added, L5 set to CONSISTENT, J1 rewritten so that only the Comext-by-origin reading is claimed as new, with CocoaIntel and the Coffee Trading Academy named as prior art), 3 (K31 to K37 added, C5 and J4 re-based on the 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast against about 760,000 t delivered, A1 SUPPORTED for the August jump), 4 (T1 condition replaced by Ghana's pooled November to December share of two-origin EU imports at or above 34.1%, horizon ended on the December 2026 Comext release, Ghana paths rebuilt), 5 (ghana-cocoa-board evidence re-sourced, ECOOKIM added). Kept as disagreement: K18 stays at the conservative 160,000 t against the later 253,212 t; C4 and C9 wording unchanged, the crop delay is carried by K35; L3's political-floor reading holds for March, not for September, where the government took the bottom of the CCC's 1,200 to 1,500 range; Kuapa Kokoo stays BENEFICIARY though arrears argue for EXPOSED on timing; the beans-stay Ivorian December upper bound of 50,000 t and the January 2027 Ivorian unit-value points stay, the latter confrontable only at the March 2027 release. Round 2 (2026-10-24, atlas-counter-analyst): every re-sourced and new quote (K8, K9, K10, K12, K14, K15, K27 to K37, ghana-cocoa-board, ecookim) re-fetched and matched verbatim, CNBC Africa dates 2026-04-30, 2026-06-03, 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-03 as stated; C5 recomputes to 53.256 percent, J4 to 12.9 to 17.0 percent; the threshold recomputes as mean 24.674 plus sample SD 9.430 = 34.103 percent and the pooled November to December 2025 share as 32.967 percent; Ghana bands consistent with a 470,000 to 620,000 t crop at the 2025/26 EU share. Verdict ACCEPTED, no REJECT and no REWORK left on a constant, a check or a trajectory. Disagreements kept in the Round 2 section of the counter-analysis: the 34.1 percent share threshold is cleared by five of twenty monthly shares and by the pooled July to August 2026 share, and a late Ivorian December inside the beans-stay band can lift Ghana's share past it without any inflow, so the Ghana December level above 20,000 t would discriminate better; C11 still says 370,000 t where K27 now carries 333,767 t; K33 is named delivered while Reuters says output; K18, L3, Kuapa Kokoo direction and the beans-stay Ivorian upper bound stay as recorded."},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-10-24","constants":37,"constraints":11,"links":8,"untested":2,"contradicted":0,"alternatives":5,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"Premium newsletter — published pack library","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Access to every published pack, old and new, while your official Premium right is valid; new packs join the same library","Three formats per pack: dossier bundle as JSON, organisations as CSV and redistributable series as CSV","Provenance, licences, hashes and review notes where available; restricted observations withheld and unfinished dossiers labelled honestly","A member key for available full data on the JSON API and MCP; no free newsletter subscription without separate consent"],"delivery":"Download the archive from your native account while the official right is valid. 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