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SIGNAL · Regulation · 2026-09-01

Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana cocoa farmgate prices diverge, 2026/27 season

On 1 September 2026 Côte d'Ivoire set the 2026/27 main-crop farmgate price at CFAF 1,200/kg, down 57% from CFAF 2,800; Ghana opened its season on 25 September at GH¢42,400/t, up 2.4% from GH¢41,392, under a new law guaranteeing farmers at least 70% of realised FOB. The world cocoa price (World Bank, ICCO average) fell from 10.75 USD/kg in January 2025 to 3.24 in March 2026 and recovered to 5.92 in September 2026. EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire were 41,011 t in July and 40,606 t in August 2026 (43,353 t and 36,405 t a year earlier), with January–August flat year on year at about 443,900 t; imports from Ghana reached 28,083 t in August 2026 against 5,459 t in August 2025, and 165,798 t over January–August against 106,719 t. The EU import unit value of Ivorian beans fell from 7,818 EUR/t in January 2025 to 5,075 EUR/t in August 2026. CHIRPS rainfall over the Ivorian cocoa belt dropped from 272 mm in June to 57 mm in July 2026, against 288 mm and 108 mm over the Ghanaian belt.

Geography: Côte d'Ivoire (cocoa belt, Soubré–Daloa) / Ghana (Western North cocoa region) / Amsterdam (EU cocoa import gateway) / Antwerp (EU cocoa import gateway). Trigger: source. Edition: Two administered cocoa prices, one border: the EU customs ledger will show whether Ivorian beans go to Ghana. Dossier: accepted on 2026-10-24.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: European Cocoa Association — ECA Members (Effective and associate members (traders, converters, logistics, Port of Amsterdam, ICE Futures Europe); 63 companies screened for EU importers and processors.); ANECACAO — Nuestros Socios (Ecuadorian exporter members, including the Ecuador arms of Barry Callebaut, ECOM, Olam and Nestlé; used for the competing-origin side.); ICCO — Membership of the International Cocoa Agreement, 2010 (Exporting and importing member countries; used to pick competing origins (Ecuador, Cameroon, Nigeria) and the EU importing side.); CBI (Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs) — The Dutch market potential for cocoa (Amsterdam port role, Dutch import origins (Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Ecuador) and Dutch traders and grinders.); CBS Statistics Netherlands — The Netherlands is the world's leading exporter of cocoa products (2026) (Import-origin table for Dutch cocoa imports, 2025; corroborates the Amsterdam gateway.); Ghana Cocoa Board — home page and news (LBC workshop, Cocoa Capital PLC) (2026/27 producer price banner and LBC news. The licensed buying companies list was not published on the site (404), so Ghanaian LBCs were taken from their own sites.); Hook and corroborating press read on 2026-10-24 (GNA, Africa24, Fraternité Matin, MyJoyOnline (Chamber of Cocoa Marketers, Fitch Solutions), Koaci (GEPEX, SYNAP-CI, SYNARFA-CI), Connection Ivoirienne (seven producer organisations), Food Business MEA. conseilcafecacao.ci failed TLS and answered 401; the FCC member directory (244 members) loads by script and could not be read.); ECOOKIM — site of the cooperative union (added at rework round 1) (Ivorian producer organisation with a reachable site; the SYNAP-CI, ANAPROCI and GEPEX domains do not resolve.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-02-28. If the farmgate wedge of about 1.53 USD/kg moves Ivorian beans east during the main crop, EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Ghana in December 2026 reach at least 20,000 t, the top of what Ghana's own 470,000 to 620,000 t forecast crop supports (16,142 t in December 2025), with COCOBOD's graded-and-sealed purchases running ahead of that forecast; the December figure is due in the Comext release of late February 2027. Indicators: EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Ghana, December 2026, tonnes (Eurostat Comext DS-045409); Ghana's share of EU27 bean imports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, pooled over November and December 2026, percent (Eurostat Comext DS-045409); COCOBOD graded-and-sealed purchases to December 2026 against the Cocoa Marketing Company forecast.

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-02-28. If the Ivorian main crop runs eight to ten weeks late, as the Conseil du Café-Cacao expects, EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire in December 2026 fall between 20,000 and 40,000 t, below the 51,228 t monthly mean since January 2025, whatever happens at the border; a December figure above 40,000 t would mean the crop was not late enough to move Ghana's share on its own. Indicators: EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire, December 2026, tonnes, lower bound (Eurostat Comext DS-045409); EU27 imports of cocoa beans from Côte d'Ivoire, December 2026, tonnes, upper bound (Eurostat Comext DS-045409).

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-03-31. If the World Bank cocoa price stays at or above 5.5 USD/kg through December 2026, the EU import unit value of Ivorian beans still falls below 4,000 EUR/t in at least one month from November 2026 to January 2027, because those beans were sold forward near a reference of about 3.48 USD/kg; unit values at or above 4,800 EUR/t in each of the three months would contradict it. January 2027 is due in the Comext release of mid-March 2027. Indicators: EU import unit value of Ivorian cocoa beans, monthly, EUR per tonne (Eurostat Comext DS-045409, value over quantity); World Bank Pink Sheet cocoa price, monthly, USD per kg.

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Sources and reuse

Climate Hazards Center, UC Santa Barbara — CHIRPS — CHIRPS page: "CHIRPS data is in the public domain as registered with Creative Commons." The same page states that all copyright and related or neighboring rights to CHIRPS have been waived (CC0-style waiver), published from the United States. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet) — Terms of Use for Datasets, linked from the Commodity Markets page under 'Using this Data': "Unless specifically labeled otherwise, these Datasets are provided to you under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), with the additional terms below." The summary terms add that some third-party indicators may carry their own conditions in their metadata; the Pink Sheet cocoa column cites ICCO and Bloomberg as underlying sources without a separate restriction. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

Eurostat (European Commission) — Comext — Eurostat copyright notice (CC BY 4.0 by default): "Reuse of statistical data, metadata, publications, and other dissemination tools published on this website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is authorised provided the source is acknowledged." Credit: Eurostat. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)