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SIGNAL · Supply shock · 2026-09-24

Hormuz disruption, Qatari LNG and European gas and power, January–October 2026

IMF PortWatch counted 68.1 transits a day through the Strait of Hormuz (37.0 tankers) from 1 January to 27 February 2026, against 3.6 a day (0.9 tankers) from 1 September to 18 October; daily calls fell from 57 on 28 February to 4 on 2 March. EU gas in storage bottomed at 313.8 TWh on 31 March and stood at 845.0 TWh on 23 October (GIE AGSI). The DE-LU day-ahead power price averaged 104.5 EUR/MWh in January–February and 154.7 EUR/MWh from 1 September to 23 October.

Geography: Ras Laffan, Qatar (LNG export complex) / Strait of Hormuz / Germany / Italy. Trigger: source. Edition: Hormuz traffic collapsed, Europe's gas storage stalled below target, and German power prices rose by half.. Dossier: accepted on 2026-10-24.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: GIE AGSI+ company listing (storage system operators by country) (72 storage system operators, 200 company and facility rows in the copy saved on 2026-10-23; screened for DE, IT, NL, BE, GB and PL operators.); Gas Infrastructure Europe — all members (71 member companies from 25 countries (TSOs, storage and LNG terminal operators) plus observers; used to name LNG terminal operators (Gate, Fluxys LNG, Adriatic LNG, OLT, Snam, DET, German LNG Terminal) and Gassco.); GIIGNL — members (Americas, Europe, Asia) (LNG importers and terminal operators by region; used to screen Asian buyers competing for spot cargoes (JERA, KOGAS, CPC, Petronet, GAIL, CNOOC) and US exporters (Cheniere). Only organisation names used.); GIE LNG Database (26 August 2026) (Page read; the XLSX was not downloaded. Cited for terminal coverage only.); Edison press releases on QatarEnergy force majeure, March–August 2026 (Primary statement by a European buyer on cargoes lost at Adriatic LNG.); Petronet LNG stock-exchange filing, 5 March 2026 (Names the Indian off-takers passed the QatarEnergy force majeure.); QatarEnergy newsroom (The newsroom URL given in the brief returned 404; the News page returned an archived 2020 shell without 2026 items. QatarEnergy's own force majeure notices were therefore taken from counterparties and press.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-11-30. If Hormuz transits stay at or below 10 a day through 30 November 2026, the German day-ahead price averages at least 120 EUR per MWh over November 2026, because gas-marginal hours clear at or above a fuel-and-carbon floor of at least 151 EUR per MWh while TTF stays near its October level. Indicators: Strait of Hormuz daily transits, all vessels (IMF PortWatch); DE-LU day-ahead price, monthly average of daily values (Bundesnetzagentur SMARD); TTF front-month gas price, EUR per MWh (falsified if below 50 with the strait closed).

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-11-30. If Hormuz transits stay at or below 10 a day and the JKM premium over TTF stays below 3 USD per MBtu, EU gas in storage is still at or above 710 TWh on 30 November 2026: Europe keeps receiving Atlantic LNG at about the September pace, and the winter risk is price rather than an empty store. Indicators: Strait of Hormuz daily transits, all vessels (IMF PortWatch); EU gas in storage, daily (GIE AGSI); JKM minus TTF, November and December delivery, USD per MBtu (Global LNG Hub weekly update).

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2026-12-31. If Hormuz transits reach 30 or more a day for seven consecutive days by 30 November 2026, the German day-ahead price averages at most 160 EUR per MWh over December 2026 and EU gas in storage is at or above 560 TWh on 31 December 2026, as Qatari cargoes return within three to six weeks. Indicators: Strait of Hormuz daily transits, all vessels (IMF PortWatch); DE-LU day-ahead price, monthly average of daily values (Bundesnetzagentur SMARD); EU gas in storage, daily (GIE AGSI).

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Sources and reuse

Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de — CC BY 4.0: "Als Namensnennung ist \"Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de\" zu verwenden." Market data on SMARD are published under Creative Commons Namensnennung 4.0 International. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) — AGSI — GIE Data Usage Rules: "Data can be used, embedded, grouped, repackaged, divulged in any way, shape or format you see fit on the explicit condition that a clear indication on GIE as data source is mandatory." Credit: GIE AGSI. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

International Monetary Fund — PortWatch — IMF Copyright and Usage terms (referenced by the Daily_Chokepoints_Data item licence): "Distributed or reproduced Data must appear accurately with attribution to the IMF as the source"; commercial reuse of IMF Data requires a written permission request to the IMF. Citable with attribution, not exportable. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)