{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain with statuses, 5 constants, statements of conjectures and trajectories). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","title":"Rhine record low at Kaub, fuel deliveries to the Swiss Rhine ports and heating-oil prices, July–October 2026","date":"2026-09-24","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","geography":[{"code":"DE-RP","name":"Kaub, Rhineland-Palatinate (Rhine gauge)","latitude":50.085,"longitude":7.764},{"code":"DE-BW","name":"Karlsruhe, Baden-Württemberg (Upper Rhine ports)","latitude":49.01,"longitude":8.4},{"code":"CH","name":"Swiss Rhine ports, Basel area","latitude":47.59,"longitude":7.59},{"code":"NL","name":"Rotterdam (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub)","latitude":51.92,"longitude":4.48}],"source_url":"https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/rhine-sinks-to-record-low-in-further-blow-for-river-transport/92114798","summary":"The WSV raw record at Kaub shows the Rhine daily mean below 78 cm on 74 days between 10 July and 24 September 2026, a daily minimum of 2 cm on 24 September and of −6 cm on 1 October, before a partial recovery to 20 cm by 23 October. Inbound mineral oil products at the Swiss Rhine ports fell from 125,541 t in June to 93,982 t in July, 38,791 t in August and 33,584 t in September, while the German consumer price of heating gas oil rose from 1,135.2 to 1,712.8 EUR per 1000 L between 29 June and 19 October.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","key":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","family":"FLOW","variable":"Inbound (Zufuhr) waterborne cargo, NST-2007 group 07 mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports (Basel-Kleinhüningen, Birsfelden, Auhafen Muttenz, St. Johann and Kaiseraugst), net weight","unit":"t","geography":"CH","publisher":"port-of-switzerland","source_url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Bulletin_09_2026.pdf","source_sha256":"0e2770dc0305e4c0ee00905ebc062b7868a5e4e11879cf6c3383494b756ba321","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:19:09+00:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","key":"basel-ports-total-inbound-t","family":"FLOW","variable":"Inbound (Zufuhr) waterborne cargo, all NST-2007 groups, Swiss Rhine ports, net weight","unit":"t","geography":"CH","publisher":"port-of-switzerland","source_url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Bulletin_09_2026.pdf","source_sha256":"0e2770dc0305e4c0ee00905ebc062b7868a5e4e11879cf6c3383494b756ba321","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:19:09+00:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":42,"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","key":"heating-oil-be-eur-1000l","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Consumer price of heating gas oil incl. duties and taxes, Belgium, Weekly Oil Bulletin (prices in force on the Monday date)","unit":"EUR per 1000 L","geography":"BE","publisher":"ec-weekly-oil-bulletin","source_url":"https://energy.ec.europa.eu/document/download/906e60ca-8b6a-44e7-8589-652854d2fd3f_en?filename=Weekly_Oil_Bulletin_Prices_History_maticni_4web.xlsx","source_sha256":"7e019a27fe2df6f324ec7a7c551b98142713fbee32aa7a030906101ffc22b2fd","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:20:35+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-08-03","value":1367.2},{"period":"2026-08-10","value":1229.1},{"period":"2026-08-17","value":1318.7},{"period":"2026-08-24","value":1339.6},{"period":"2026-08-31","value":1253.5},{"period":"2026-09-07","value":1438.9},{"period":"2026-09-14","value":1553.9},{"period":"2026-09-21","value":1538.1},{"period":"2026-09-28","value":1562.9},{"period":"2026-10-05","value":1533.4},{"period":"2026-10-12","value":1597},{"period":"2026-10-19","value":1545}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":42,"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","key":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Germany minus Belgium consumer price of heating gas oil incl. taxes (derived)","unit":"EUR per 1000 L","geography":"DE","publisher":"ec-weekly-oil-bulletin","source_url":"https://energy.ec.europa.eu/document/download/906e60ca-8b6a-44e7-8589-652854d2fd3f_en?filename=Weekly_Oil_Bulletin_Prices_History_maticni_4web.xlsx","source_sha256":"7e019a27fe2df6f324ec7a7c551b98142713fbee32aa7a030906101ffc22b2fd","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:20:35+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":{"op":"diff","inputs":["heating-oil-de-eur-1000l","heating-oil-be-eur-1000l"]},"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-08-03","value":-82},{"period":"2026-08-10","value":86.6},{"period":"2026-08-17","value":24.3},{"period":"2026-08-24","value":-6.5},{"period":"2026-08-31","value":148.3},{"period":"2026-09-07","value":82},{"period":"2026-09-14","value":129.1},{"period":"2026-09-21","value":171.4},{"period":"2026-09-28","value":134.5},{"period":"2026-10-05","value":121},{"period":"2026-10-12","value":101.1},{"period":"2026-10-19","value":167.8}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":42,"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","key":"heating-oil-de-eur-1000l","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Consumer price of heating gas oil incl. duties and taxes, Germany, Weekly Oil Bulletin (prices in force on the Monday date)","unit":"EUR per 1000 L","geography":"DE","publisher":"ec-weekly-oil-bulletin","source_url":"https://energy.ec.europa.eu/document/download/906e60ca-8b6a-44e7-8589-652854d2fd3f_en?filename=Weekly_Oil_Bulletin_Prices_History_maticni_4web.xlsx","source_sha256":"7e019a27fe2df6f324ec7a7c551b98142713fbee32aa7a030906101ffc22b2fd","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:20:35+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-08-03","value":1285.2},{"period":"2026-08-10","value":1315.7},{"period":"2026-08-17","value":1343},{"period":"2026-08-24","value":1333.1},{"period":"2026-08-31","value":1401.8},{"period":"2026-09-07","value":1520.9},{"period":"2026-09-14","value":1683},{"period":"2026-09-21","value":1709.5},{"period":"2026-09-28","value":1697.4},{"period":"2026-10-05","value":1654.4},{"period":"2026-10-12","value":1698.1},{"period":"2026-10-19","value":1712.8}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":115,"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","key":"kaub-stage-cm","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Rhine water level at gauge Kaub (WSV 25700100), daily minimum of 15-minute raw values (unverified), relative to gauge zero PNP 67.669 m","unit":"cm","geography":"DE-RP","publisher":"wsv-pegelonline","source_url":"https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/webservices/files/Wasserstand+Rohdaten/RHEIN/KAUB/","source_sha256":"660f337204409d1e18c1de6e5670a9fe5e9957b0322dcc499e9935c97793a358","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:15:36+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-12","value":15},{"period":"2026-10-13","value":19},{"period":"2026-10-14","value":10},{"period":"2026-10-15","value":9},{"period":"2026-10-16","value":6},{"period":"2026-10-17","value":9},{"period":"2026-10-18","value":7},{"period":"2026-10-19","value":9},{"period":"2026-10-20","value":17},{"period":"2026-10-21","value":11},{"period":"2026-10-22","value":17},{"period":"2026-10-23","value":20}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":115,"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","key":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Rhine water level at gauge Kaub (WSV 25700100), daily mean of 15-minute raw values (unverified), relative to gauge zero PNP 67.669 m","unit":"cm","geography":"DE-RP","publisher":"wsv-pegelonline","source_url":"https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/webservices/files/Wasserstand+Rohdaten/RHEIN/KAUB/","source_sha256":"660f337204409d1e18c1de6e5670a9fe5e9957b0322dcc499e9935c97793a358","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:15:36+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-12","value":19.19},{"period":"2026-10-13","value":19.69},{"period":"2026-10-14","value":14.93},{"period":"2026-10-15","value":12.42},{"period":"2026-10-16","value":8.88},{"period":"2026-10-17","value":10.08},{"period":"2026-10-18","value":8.69},{"period":"2026-10-19","value":13.5},{"period":"2026-10-20","value":19.25},{"period":"2026-10-21","value":15.03},{"period":"2026-10-22","value":19.44},{"period":"2026-10-23","value":25.59}]}],"edition":{"title":"A German river gauge emptied Swiss fuel barges, and Switzerland opened its jet-fuel stocks","lead":"On 1 October the Rhine at Kaub read −6 cm, after 80 days since 10 July with the daily mean below the 77 cm low-water reference. Mineral oil landed at the Swiss Rhine ports fell from 125,541 t in June to 33,584 t in September, and on 15 October Switzerland released jet fuel from its compulsory stocks equal to about 4.7 days of national demand.","published_at":"2026-10-24","vectors":["kaub-stage-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","heating-oil-de-be-spread"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"kaub-stage-cm","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-01","value":85},{"id":"F2","series":"kaub-stage-cm","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-6},{"id":"F3","series":"kaub-stage-cm","stat":"last","period":null,"value":20},{"id":"F4","series":"kaub-stage-cm","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-16","value":44},{"id":"F5","series":"kaub-stage-cm","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-15","value":9},{"id":"F6","series":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-10","value":70.57},{"id":"F7","series":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-24","value":5.45},{"id":"F8","series":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-4.75},{"id":"F9","series":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","stat":"last","period":null,"value":25.59},{"id":"F10","series":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":125541},{"id":"F11","series":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":93982},{"id":"F12","series":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":38791},{"id":"F13","series":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","stat":"min","period":null,"value":33584},{"id":"F14","series":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","stat":"max","period":null,"value":186889},{"id":"F16","series":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","stat":"change_pct_max_last","period":null,"value":-82.02997501190546},{"id":"F17","series":"basel-ports-total-inbound-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":300128},{"id":"F18","series":"basel-ports-total-inbound-t","stat":"last","period":null,"value":113832},{"id":"F19","series":"heating-oil-de-eur-1000l","stat":"value","period":"2026-06-29","value":1135.2},{"id":"F20","series":"heating-oil-de-eur-1000l","stat":"max","period":null,"value":1712.8},{"id":"F23","series":"heating-oil-be-eur-1000l","stat":"value","period":"2026-06-29","value":1003.2},{"id":"F24","series":"heating-oil-be-eur-1000l","stat":"last","period":null,"value":1545},{"id":"F27","series":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","stat":"first","period":null,"value":206},{"id":"F28","series":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","stat":"value","period":"2026-06-29","value":132},{"id":"F29","series":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-07","value":82},{"id":"F30","series":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-21","value":171.4},{"id":"F31","series":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","stat":"last","period":null,"value":167.8},{"id":"F32","series":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-163.5},{"id":"F34","series":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","stat":"value","period":"2026-08-03","value":-82},{"id":"F35","series":"heating-oil-de-eur-1000l","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-28","value":1697.4},{"id":"F36","series":"heating-oil-be-eur-1000l","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-28","value":1562.9},{"id":"F37","series":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","stat":"mean","period":null,"value":35.024},{"id":"F38","series":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","stat":"mean","period":null,"value":86.74285714285713}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Rhine water level at Kaub, 15-minute raw values, WSV PEGELONLINE","source_url":"https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/webservices/files/Wasserstand+Rohdaten/RHEIN/KAUB/"},{"indicator":"Inbound mineral oil products at the Swiss Rhine ports, monthly bulletin, Port of Switzerland","source_url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/rheinhaefen/mediencenter/zahlen-fakten/"},{"indicator":"Heating gas oil consumer prices, Germany and Belgium, weekly, EC Weekly Oil Bulletin","source_url":"https://energy.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/weekly-oil-bulletin_en"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"kaub-below-100-on-30-november","signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","statement":"If the federal hydrology institute's central path holds, the Rhine at Kaub reads below 100 cm on 30 November 2026, as both daily minimum and daily mean, so the low-water constraint on Basel-bound tankers is still in force at the start of December.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Rhine water level at Kaub, daily minimum on 30 November 2026 (WSV PEGELONLINE, gauge 25700100)","source_url":"https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/webservices/files/Wasserstand+Rohdaten/RHEIN/KAUB/","series_key":"kaub-stage-cm","threshold":{"op":"<","value":100}},{"name":"Rhine water level at Kaub, daily mean on 30 November 2026 (WSV PEGELONLINE, gauge 25700100)","source_url":"https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/webservices/files/Wasserstand+Rohdaten/RHEIN/KAUB/","series_key":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","threshold":{"op":"<","value":100}}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-01","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"basel-intake-follows-kaub-band","signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","statement":"If the Kaub daily mean on 30 November 2026 is below 100 cm, inbound mineral oil at the Swiss Rhine ports stays between 30,000 and 100,000 t in November and between 30,000 and 130,000 t in December 2026; if it is at or above 100 cm, December intake reaches at least 90,000 t. Intake outside the band of the branch that occurs refutes the river reading of Basel supply.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Inbound mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports, November and December 2026, lower bound in both branches (Port of Switzerland monthly bulletin)","source_url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/rheinhaefen/mediencenter/zahlen-fakten/","series_key":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":30000}},{"name":"Inbound mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports, November 2026, upper bound if Kaub stays below 100 cm","source_url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/rheinhaefen/mediencenter/zahlen-fakten/","series_key":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":100000}},{"name":"Inbound mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports, December 2026, upper bound if Kaub stays below 100 cm","source_url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/rheinhaefen/mediencenter/zahlen-fakten/","series_key":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":130000}},{"name":"Inbound mineral oil products, Swiss Rhine ports, December 2026, lower bound if Kaub is at or above 100 cm","source_url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/rheinhaefen/mediencenter/zahlen-fakten/","series_key":"basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":90000}},{"name":"Rhine water level at Kaub, daily mean on 30 November 2026 (branch condition)","source_url":"https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/webservices/files/Wasserstand+Rohdaten/RHEIN/KAUB/","series_key":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","threshold":{"op":"<","value":100}}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"spread-stays-in-observed-range","signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","statement":"If the Kaub daily mean stays below 100 cm through November, every weekly Germany-minus-Belgium heating-oil spread in the EC Weekly Oil Bulletin from 26 October to 28 December 2026 stays between −82.0 and 171.4 EUR per 1000 L, the range observed from July to October, because the river premium is regional and averages out of the national price. A reading above 250 EUR per 1000 L while Kaub is below 40 cm would show a national premium after all.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Germany minus Belgium heating gas oil consumer price, weekly, lower bound (EC Weekly Oil Bulletin)","source_url":"https://energy.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/weekly-oil-bulletin_en","series_key":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","threshold":{"op":">=","value":-82}},{"name":"Germany minus Belgium heating gas oil consumer price, weekly, upper bound (EC Weekly Oil Bulletin)","source_url":"https://energy.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/weekly-oil-bulletin_en","series_key":"heating-oil-de-be-spread","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":171.4}},{"name":"Rhine water level at Kaub, daily mean, condition through November 2026","source_url":"https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/webservices/files/Wasserstand+Rohdaten/RHEIN/KAUB/","series_key":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","threshold":{"op":"<","value":100}}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"bwl-fones","name":"Federal Office for National Economic Supply (BWL / OFAE / FONES)","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 84.24 Public order and safety activities (national economic supply)","website":"https://www.bwl.admin.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bwl.admin.ch/de/newnsb/14gLcyJCtZfC","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Die logistische Versorgung der Schweiz ist durch das anhaltende Niedrigwasser am Rhein seit Monaten stark beeinträchtigt. Ergibt sich bei einem der übrigen Verkehrsträger ein Problem, kann das rasch zu einem Engpass führen."},"reasoning":"The federal office states on 23 October 2026 that low water on the Rhine has impaired Swiss supply logistics for months, and it authorised diesel withdrawals from compulsory stocks after a pipeline delay. Its role is regulatory: it releases stocks rather than bearing the freight cost; how much of the stock is actually drawn is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]},{"slug":"carbura","name":"CARBURA, Swiss Organisation for Compulsory Stockpiling of Liquid Fuels","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.carbura.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.carbura.ch/en/about-carbura/membership","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"CARBURA is an association pursuant to the Swiss Civil Code to which natural or legal persons who import or wish to import liquid fuels and combustibles may be affiliated."},"reasoning":"The page shows that CARBURA groups the Swiss fuel importers that hold compulsory stocks under contracts with the federal office. That the October 2026 jet-fuel and diesel releases run through its members' stocks is inferred; neither BWL release names CARBURA, and its operational role in them is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"flughafen-zuerich","name":"Flughafen Zürich AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 52.23 Service activities incidental to air transportation","website":"https://www.flughafen-zuerich.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bwl.admin.ch/de/newnsb/QW9zBGsF8hJ9","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Ausfälle und erhebliche Verspätungen im internationalen Schienengüterverkehr, insbesondere auf den Zufahrtsstrecken aus Deutschland, beeinträchtigen die Versorgung des Flughafens Zürich mit Flugpetrol. Aufgrund des Niedrigwassers auf dem Rhein wurden zusätzliche Transporte anderer Güter bereits auf die stark ausgelastete Schiene verlagert."},"reasoning":"The federal release names Zurich airport as the site threatened with a jet-fuel shortfall, caused directly by rail failures and indirectly by the shift of Rhine cargo onto rail; up to 30,000 m3 were released from compulsory stocks from 15 October to 1 November. Whether any flights were affected is not shown, and the airport operator itself does not buy the fuel.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"swiss-international-air-lines","name":"Swiss International Air Lines AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 51.10 Passenger air transport","website":"https://www.swiss.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://lenews.ch/2026/10/15/switzerland-releases-jet-fuel-reserves-as-zurich-airport-faces-a-shortage/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Airlines have yet to feel the effects. Flag carrier Swiss has experienced no disruption to aircraft refuelling and faced no restrictions at Zurich airport."},"reasoning":"The article places Swiss on the jet-fuel chain at Zurich and states that, as of 15 October, it had seen no refuelling disruption. The exposure is to a possible shortage or higher into-plane cost if stock releases end before supply recovers; Swiss is also listed as a CARBURA member, which suggests it holds compulsory stock itself, but its volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-switzerland","name":"Schweizerische Rheinhäfen (Port of Switzerland)","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/rheinhaefen/aufgaben-ziele/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Tor der Schweiz zur Welt und nationale Logistikdrehscheibe: Jeder dritte Liter Heizöl und jeder vierte Container wird mit dem Schiff transportiert."},"reasoning":"The port authority states that one litre of heating oil in three reaches Switzerland by ship; its own bulletin records inbound mineral oil products falling from 125,541 t in June to 33,584 t in September 2026. As landlord its income from port dues and leases depends on throughput, but the revenue effect is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","basel-ports-total-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"hafenbahn-schweiz","name":"Hafenbahn Schweiz AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 49.20 Freight rail transport","website":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/hafenfirmen/hafenbahn-schweiz-ag/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/hafenfirmen/hafenbahn-schweiz-ag/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Zwei Drittel der in den Schweizerischen Rheinhäfen umgeschlagenen Güter werden über die Bahn an- oder abtransportiert, ein Drittel von Lkws übernommen."},"reasoning":"The port railway carries two thirds of the goods handled at the Swiss Rhine ports onward by rail, so fewer barge arrivals mean fewer port wagons to move. If replacement fuel trains arrive directly at port tank farms its volume could partly recover; no figure for 2026 is shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-total-inbound-t","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"tau-tanklager-auhafen","name":"TAU Tanklager Auhafen AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 52.10 Warehousing and storage (liquid fuels)","website":"https://www.tau-ag.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/firma/tau-tanklager-auhafen-ag/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Die TAU Tanklager Auhafen AG betreibt für ihre Partner und deren Mieter ein Tanklager für flüssige Brenn- und Treibstoffe im Auhafen Muttenz. Die Produkte werden hauptsächlich per Rheinschiff angeliefert."},"reasoning":"The port directory shows a 530,000 m3 fuel tank farm at Muttenz supplied mainly by Rhine barge, with rail intake as well. Lower barge arrivals cut throughput at the terminal; its share of the port's mineral-oil inbound tonnage is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]},{"slug":"varo-energy-tankstorage","name":"VARO Energy Tankstorage AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 52.10 Warehousing and storage (liquid fuels)","website":"https://www.varoenergy.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/firma/varo-energy-tankstorage-ag/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"VARO Energy Tankstorage AG Schweiz führt 5 Tanklager in der Schweiz, zwei davon in Birsfelden. Unser Kerngeschäft ist der Umschlag und die Lagerung von unterschiedlichen Brennstoffen. Dank der idealen Lage am Rhein sind wir per Schiff, Bahn und Camion erreichbar."},"reasoning":"The directory places two VARO fuel terminals in the Birsfelden Rhine port, served by ship, rail and truck. Fewer barge deliveries reduce handling at these terminals and raise VARO's cost of supplying Swiss customers; how far rail made up the difference is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]},{"slug":"voegtlin-meyer","name":"Voegtlin-Meyer AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 46.71 Wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels","website":"https://www.voegtlin-meyer.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/firma/voegtlin-meyer-ag/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Wir importieren und handeln mit Heizöl, Diesel und Benzin. Wir betreiben ein eigenes Tankstellennetz mit 30 Tankstellen und bedienen eine grosse Anzahl von Detailkunden mit unseren Mineralölprodukten. Der Umschlag erfolgt vom Rheinschiff über die Basler Rheinhäfen in unsere Tanks"},"reasoning":"The company states that it imports heating oil, diesel and petrol by Rhine barge through the Basel ports into its own tanks at TAU. Higher barge freight and short supply raise its landed cost or force alternative routes; its margin effect is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]},{"slug":"osterwalder-zuerich","name":"Osterwalder Zürich AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 46.71 Wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels","website":"https://www.osterwalder.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/firma/osterwalder-zuerich-ag/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Heute ist die Osterwalder Zürich AG im Mineralölhandel tätig und ist der Spezialist, wenn es um Heizöl und Schmierstoffe geht."},"reasoning":"The company is listed by the port under liquid-goods handling and trades heating oil as an AVIA partner around Zurich. Its reliance on Rhine deliveries is inferred from that listing; the quote does not mention barges or volumes.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"suter-joerin","name":"Suter, Joerin AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 46.71 Wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels","website":"https://www.suter-joerin.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/firma/suter-joerin-ag/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Suter, Joerin AG mit Sitz in Arlesheim BL betreibt Handel und Distribution von festen und flüssigen Brenn- und Treibstoffen."},"reasoning":"The Basel-area fuel distributor is listed by the port under liquid-goods handling and is a CARBURA member. That its supply comes through the Rhine ports is inferred, not stated in the quote.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"grisard-bitumen","name":"Grisard Bitumen AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 46.71 Wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels (bitumen)","website":"https://www.grisard.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/firma/grisard-bitumen-ag/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Für ihre Kunden betreibt die GRISARD BITUMEN AG ein neues Tanklager im Auhafen Muttenz direkt am Rhein, um näher, schneller und sicherer zu beliefern. Der Bitumentransport zum Tanklager erfolgt umweltfreundlich und zuverlässig mit Schiff und Zug."},"reasoning":"The bitumen distributor supplies its Muttenz tank farm by ship and rail; bitumen falls in the mineral-oil product group of the port statistics. A lower barge share shifts its intake to rail at higher cost; the split is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"migrol","name":"Migrol AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 46.71 Wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels","website":"https://www.migrol.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.migrol.ch/de/heizen-waerme/heizoelpreisentwicklung/marktnews/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Die effektive Preisentwicklung in der Schweiz kann aufgrund von weiteren Einflussfaktoren wie Transportkosten, Rheinfrachten oder Dollarkurs jedoch abweichen."},"reasoning":"The heating-oil retailer names Rhine freight as a driver of Swiss prices on its market page. A tenfold barge rate therefore enters its delivered price; whether it absorbs or passes on the cost, and its own supply routes, are not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]},{"slug":"tamoil-suisse","name":"Tamoil SA","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 46.71 Wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels","website":"https://www.tamoil.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.tamoil.ch/logistique-du-reseau","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Par voies fluviales sur le Rhin depuis Rotterdam ou depuis les raffineries situées en Allemagne via Bâle."},"reasoning":"Tamoil lists Rhine barge from Rotterdam or German refineries via Basel as one supply route, alongside rail, pipeline and trucks from Italy. The page shows the route, not its share; the low-water effect on Tamoil's costs is inferred.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]},{"slug":"vitol-aviation-switzerland","name":"Vitol Aviation Switzerland AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 46.71 Wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels (jet fuel)","website":"https://www.vitol.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.vitol.com/vitol-aviation/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"We supply jet fuel to oil majors, national oil companies, the world’s largest airlines and military customers, as well as our own aviation division"},"reasoning":"Vitol Aviation Switzerland is listed as a CARBURA member and the group trades and delivers jet fuel. A trader with product and logistics optionality can gain from regional dislocation; neither its Zurich volumes nor any gain is shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"sbb-cargo","name":"SBB Cargo AG (incl. ChemOil Logistics AG)","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 49.20 Freight rail transport","website":"https://www.sbbcargo.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sbbcargo.com/de/unternehmen/organisation/chemoil-logistics-ag.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"ChemOil Logistics ist eine Tochterfirma von SBB Cargo mit Sitz in Basel. Das Unternehmen ist spezialisiert auf die Logistik von Mineralöl und chemischen Produkten."},"reasoning":"The page places SBB Cargo's Basel subsidiary in mineral-oil rail logistics, the main alternative to barges. Extra demand is inferred; BWL reports that rail routes from Germany were congested and failing in October, so capacity, not demand, may cap the gain.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]},{"slug":"ultra-brag","name":"Ultra-Brag AG","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 52.24 Cargo handling","website":"https://www.ultra-brag.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://port-of-switzerland.ch/firma/ultra-brag-ag/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Sie unterhält moderne Umschlags- und Lageranlagen sowie zwei Binnenschiffe. Auf den europäischen Binnengewässern, Schienen und Strassen transportiert die Ultra-Brag AG jede Art von Gütern sicher an den Bestimmungsort."},"reasoning":"The Basel logistics firm handles and ships dry cargo and containers, not fuel; it is exposed to the same draft limits through total inbound tonnage, which fell from 300,128 t in June to 113,832 t in September 2026. Its own volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-total-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]},{"slug":"vt-group","name":"VT Group (Verenigde Tankrederij B.V.)","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 50.40 Inland freight water transport","website":"https://vtgroup.nl/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://swzmaritime.nl/news/2026/01/05/vt-group-acquires-rotterdam-based-peer-fluvia/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The Dutch tanker shipping company VT Group was founded in 1932 and specialises in bunkering, fleet management and the transport of mineral oils, chemical products, (bio)fuels and lubricants."},"reasoning":"The article places VT Group in Rhine tanker transport of mineral oils, with 29 vessels on the Rhine after buying Fluvia in January 2026. ARA–Karlsruhe rates near 200 EUR/t lift revenue per tonne carried, while load cuts and stopped sailings reduce tonnes; the net effect is not shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","kaub-stage-mean-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"interstream-barging","name":"Interstream Barging B.V.","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 50.40 Inland freight water transport","website":"https://www.interstreambarging.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.interstreambarging.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Als binnenvaartbevrachter in vloeibare producten zoals minerale oliën, chemicaliën en Vegoil richt Interstream Barging zich op Europa. In deze regio zijn wij qua tonnage de absolute marktleider."},"reasoning":"Interstream charters inland tankers for mineral oils and claims market leadership by tonnage. As a charterer-operator it earns from higher spot freight but must spread cargo across more, partly loaded vessels; the margin effect is not shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","kaub-stage-mean-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-rotterdam","name":"Havenbedrijf Rotterdam N.V. (Port of Rotterdam Authority)","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.portofrotterdam.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.portofrotterdam.com/en/logistics/connections/intermodal-transportation/inland-shipping","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The port of Rotterdam is an ideal departure and end point for transporting cargo flows by water via inland shipping. Dutch and European destinations are easily accessible via the Maas, Rhine, Main, Danube, and canals."},"reasoning":"Rotterdam is the main loading hub for Rhine tanker barges, so fewer and lighter upstream sailings reduce inland throughput there. Product may instead be held in ARA storage or sent by other modes; no 2026 Rotterdam figure is shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-antwerp-bruges","name":"Port of Antwerp-Bruges","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.portofantwerpbruges.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.portofantwerpbruges.com/en/business/cargo/liquid-bulk","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Port of Antwerp-Bruges partner for liquid bulk and tank storage"},"reasoning":"The port's liquid-bulk page is script-rendered: as served on 24 October 2026 its only text is this title, which the port uses to present itself as a liquid-bulk and tank-storage hub. Antwerp is the third ARA loading hub and sits below the Kaub bottleneck, so Belgian heating-oil prices serve as a reference unaffected by Rhine draft. Reduced upstream barge demand is inferred; the port's own volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["heating-oil-be-eur-1000l","heating-oil-de-be-spread"]}]},{"slug":"spmr","name":"Société du Pipeline Méditerranée-Rhône (SPMR)","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 49.50 Transport via pipeline","website":"https://www.spmr.fr/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.spmr.fr/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Le raccordement de ce réseau à un pipeline suisse (SAPPRO) permet également l‘approvisionnement des dépôts de la région de Genève."},"reasoning":"The pipeline from the Marseille-area refineries reaches Geneva depots through SAPPRO, a route into Switzerland independent of the Rhine. On 23 October BWL attributed a diesel gap to pumping delays caused by heavy rain in southern France, which shows the substitute route was itself constrained; its spare capacity is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"ccnr","name":"Central Commission for the Navigation of the Rhine (CCNR)","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 99.00 Activities of extraterritorial organisations","website":"https://www.ccr-zkr.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ccr-zkr.org/files/documents/cpresse/cp20260910en.pdf","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Rhine navigation remains indispensable for sectors such as the chemical, steel and mineral oil industries, that often cannot be supplied as efficiently by rail or road."},"reasoning":"The commission's press release of 10 September 2026 reports record low water at several gauges and names the mineral oil industry among those dependent on the river. It sets rules and monitors the market; it bears no freight cost itself.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","kaub-stage-mean-cm"]}]},{"slug":"miro-karlsruhe","name":"Mineraloelraffinerie Oberrhein GmbH & Co. KG (MiRO)","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 19.20 Manufacture of refined petroleum products","website":"https://www.miro-ka.de/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/rhine-water-levels-fall-to-new-record-low-stalling-fuel-logistics/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The majority of barges that are now in the Upper Rhine stay there for loadings from the Miro Refinery for local depot supply, such as Strasbourg and Basel, but also with low tonnage"},"reasoning":"Karlsruhe lies upstream of Kaub, so with ARA supply cut the barges still on the Upper Rhine load at MiRO for Strasbourg and Basel: a volume advantage that is evidenced. The price sign at the refinery gate runs the other way: Argus reported on 30 July 2026 that suppliers at the refinery were lowering prices for truck loadings of heating oil, diesel and petrol to clear product they could no longer barge to ARA. The direction is kept for the upstream volumes; the net price effect is undetermined.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","heating-oil-de-eur-1000l"]},{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://tankterminals.com/news/germany-suffers-oil-product-supply-issues-due-to-low-rhine-levels/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Suppliers at the Miro consortium’s 310,000 bbd Karlsruhe refinery in southwestern Germany are facing rising oversupply, because the refinery usually loads some product on barges for delivery either upstream to Switzerland or downstream towards ARA."},"reasoning":"In August 2026 Argus reported that both of MiRO's barge outlets were constrained, leaving suppliers there oversupplied. The two exposures together show that low water helps MiRO's local sales but blocks its longer-distance outlets; the net effect is not shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","kaub-stage-mean-cm","heating-oil-de-eur-1000l"]}]},{"slug":"shell-deutschland-rheinland","name":"Shell Deutschland GmbH (Energy and Chemicals Park Rheinland)","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 19.20 Manufacture of refined petroleum products","website":"https://www.shell.de/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/rhine-water-levels-fall-to-new-record-low-stalling-fuel-logistics/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"According to Spotbarge estimates, loadings from both Shell refineries were down by a third week over week on Sept. 28, keeping pressure on product flows in already-tight markets."},"reasoning":"The Rheinland complex at Godorf and Wesseling ships product by Rhine barge, and loadings fell by a third in one week at the end of September. It sits below Kaub, so its barrels are less cut off than upstream depots, but the lower Rhine was also at record lows; the production response is not shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","kaub-stage-mean-cm","heating-oil-de-eur-1000l"]}]},{"slug":"basf","name":"BASF SE","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 20.14 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals","website":"https://www.basf.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://logistik-heute.de/en/news/inland-navigation-negative-water-levels-record-low-water-rhine-286385.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The situation has a particularly strong impact on refineries, the chemical industry, and steelworks. A prominent example is the BASF plant in Ludwigshafen, which sources about half of its precursors via inland shipping."},"reasoning":"The article names BASF Ludwigshafen, upstream of Kaub, as a site that receives about half of its precursors by inland ship. The same draft limit that stops fuel barges raises its input cost or curbs output; the 2026 production effect is not shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","kaub-stage-mean-cm"]}]},{"slug":"hgk","name":"Häfen und Güterverkehr Köln AG (HGK Shipping)","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 50.40 Inland freight water transport","website":"https://www.hgk.de/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.portseurope.com/specialised-low-water-vessels-keep-rhine-chemical-transport-moving/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"A growing fleet of specially designed low-water vessels operated by Cologne-based logistics group HGK is helping keep barge transport running to chemical sites on the Rhine, as the river’s water level at the critical Kaub gauge approaches single digits."},"reasoning":"HGK operates low-draught tankers that kept moving in August 2026 when conventional barges could not, so it can earn the elevated rates. The article concerns chemical cargo; whether its tankers carried fuel to the Upper Rhine is not shown.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","kaub-stage-mean-cm"]}]},{"slug":"db-cargo","name":"DB Cargo AG","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 49.20 Freight rail transport","website":"https://www.dbcargo.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/the-rhine-continues-to-fall-to-ever-lower-levels-posing-a-constant-threat-to-european-trade-AJjLsGe","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Some cargo, however, can be transported by rail. A spokesperson for DB Cargo stated last week that the rail operator is in constant contact with customers affected by the low water levels."},"reasoning":"The article places DB Cargo as the rail alternative for customers hit by low water. Extra traffic is inferred; BWL reports failures and delays on rail access routes from Germany to Switzerland in October, so network capacity limits the gain.","series_keys":["kaub-stage-cm","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"vtg","name":"VTG GmbH","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 77.39 Renting and leasing of other machinery, equipment and tangible goods (rail wagons)","website":"https://www.vtg.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.vtg.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Our innovative, market-leading leasing business, with a fleet of 75,000 rail freight wagons for liquid, bulk, and intermodal transport across Europe, forms the backbone of our portfolio."},"reasoning":"A shift of mineral oil from barge to rail raises demand for tank wagons, which VTG leases. The page shows the fleet, not any 2026 change in utilisation or rates.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"en2x","name":"en2x – Wirtschaftsverband Fuels und Energie e.V.","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://en2x.de/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://en2x.de/ueber-uns/mitglieder/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Die Unternehmen stellen die genannten Produkte entweder in Deutschland her oder handeln dort als Großhändler oder führen die Produkte nach Deutschland ein."},"reasoning":"The association represents the refiners, importers and wholesalers that move German heating oil, including Shell, BP, VARO and AVIA. It speaks for the sector but bears no cost itself; its 2026 statements on low water are not cited here.","series_keys":["heating-oil-de-eur-1000l","heating-oil-de-be-spread"]}]},{"slug":"tal-dto","name":"Deutsche Transalpine Oelleitung GmbH (TAL Group)","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 49.50 Transport via pipeline","website":"https://www.tal-oil.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.tal-oil.com/en/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The TAL Group operates the Transalpine Pipeline that transports energyfrom the Port of Trieste to the refineries in Central Europe."},"reasoning":"TAL brings crude from Trieste to Karlsruhe without using the Rhine, which is why the Upper Rhine refinery can keep running while ARA barges are blocked. It is a crude, not a product, route; whether its throughput rose in 2026 is not shown.","series_keys":["heating-oil-de-eur-1000l","basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"spse","name":"Société du Pipeline Sud-Européen (SPSE)","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 49.50 Transport via pipeline","website":"https://www.spse.fr/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.spse.fr/fr/transport-et-stockage-hydrocarbures.php","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Le terminal de Lyon alimente la raffinerie de Feyzin, appartenant au groupe Total, tandis que le terminal de Besançon alimente le dépôt du pipeline du Jura connecté à la raffinerie de Cressier en Suisse, appartenant à la société suisse Varo."},"reasoning":"SPSE's crude line from Fos-sur-Mer feeds the Jura pipeline to the Cressier refinery, Switzerland's only refinery: the Rhine-independent crude route that supplies the third of Swiss demand not imported as finished products. Its network page states a capacity of 8 million tonnes of crude a year for Feyzin and Cressier together. On 23 October the federal office attributed a diesel gap to rain-delayed pumping of crude and products in southern France, so the substitute route was itself constrained; SPSE's own throughput in 2026 is not shown.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t"]}]},{"slug":"avenergy-suisse","name":"Avenergy Suisse","country":"CH","sector":"NACE 94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.avenergy.ch/","exposures":[{"signal":"rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.avenergy.ch/de/ueber-uns","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Avenergy Suisse vertritt die Interessen der Importeure flüssiger Brenn- und Treibstoffe. Die Mitglieder von Avenergy Suisse gewährleisten die Versorgungssicherheit mit den wichtigsten Energieträgern des Landes: flüssige Brenn- und Treibstoffe."},"reasoning":"The association of Swiss importers of liquid fuels, whose spokesperson gave the modal split of imports (Rhine 22 percent, rail 31, pipeline 41) in July 2026 and who publishes monthly price statistics. It speaks for the importers exposed through Basel and bears no freight cost itself.","series_keys":["basel-ports-mineral-oil-inbound-t","kaub-stage-cm"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"When the Kaub gauge falls below the level at which Rhine tankers can load, which Swiss importer pays spot barge freight or rail premia for fuel products, when does the federal office release compulsory stocks, and what does the German consumer pay for the river once the common crude shock from Hormuz is stripped out through the Germany-minus-Belgium spread? Unlike the Mississippi grain case, the cargo is refined fuel, the buyer is a landlocked country with statutory stocks and two other routes, and the price signal is a national average that must be read net of a crude shock.","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Fairway depth at equivalent water level (GlW), Budenheim/Niederwalluf to St. Goar (Rhine km 508 to 557)","value":190,"unit":"cm","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.elwis.de/DE/dynamisch/Nfb/NfbDetailview/showPdf:2925/2022","source_date":"2022-12-22","quote":"Budenheim/Niederwalluf 1,90 m","note":"GDWS navigation notice on fairway conditions on the German Rhine; table 1a, section km 508,00 to 557,00, which contains the Kaub gauge (km 546,3). The notice defines the fairway depth as the target depth in the channel at GlW that the administration maintains as far as possible."},{"id":"K2","name":"Equivalent water level GlW 2022 at the Kaub gauge","value":77,"unit":"cm","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.elwis.de/DE/dynamisch/Nfb/NfbDetailview/showPdf:2925/2022","source_date":"2022-12-22","quote":"Kaub 77 540,00 - 566,00","note":"Table 1b of the same notice: reference gauge Kaub, GlW 2022 of 77 cm, valid for km 540 to 566. The CCNR resolution 2022-II-19 sets the same value from 1 January 2023; the 2012 value used in older carrier documents was 78 cm."},{"id":"K3","name":"Keel clearance deducted from the fairway depth before loading","value":20,"unit":"cm","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.contargo.net/fileadmin/Ueber_Uns/Downloads_DE/1_Rund_um_unsere_Verkehrstraeger/3_Binnenschiff/Kleinwasserbroschuere.pdf","source_date":"2017-05-26","quote":"Aus Sicherheitsgründen wird eine Kielfreiheit von ca. 20 cm einberechnet.","note":"Contargo low-water brochure, 2017 edition (data to 26 May 2017, the date used here). The brochure describes container vessels; the clearance is a nautical practice, not product-specific."},{"id":"K4","name":"Empty draft of a large inland vessel, lower end of the stated range","value":90,"unit":"cm","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.contargo.net/fileadmin/Ueber_Uns/Downloads_DE/1_Rund_um_unsere_Verkehrstraeger/3_Binnenschiff/Kleinwasserbroschuere.pdf","source_date":"2017-05-26","quote":"Containerbinnenschiffe haben bereits unbeladen einen Tiefgang von ca. 90 –130 cm (Leertiefgang).","note":"Conservative end of the 90 to 130 cm range. Stated for container vessels; large Rhine tankers of the same length class draw a similar empty draft, which the Atlas has not sourced separately."},{"id":"K5","name":"Maximum load of a 135 m vessel at a Kaub gauge of 60 cm","value":900,"unit":"tonnes","kind":"CAPACITY","source_url":"https://www.contargo.net/fileadmin/Ueber_Uns/Downloads_DE/1_Rund_um_unsere_Verkehrstraeger/3_Binnenschiff/Kleinwasserbroschuere.pdf","source_date":"2017-05-26","quote":"Bei einem Pegelstand Kaub von 60 cm (entspricht einer Fahrrinnnentiefe von 172 cm) reduziert sich die maximale Abladung auf nur noch 900 Tonnen.","note":"The brochure applies the 2012 GlW of 78 cm, hence 172 cm of fairway depth at 60 cm. The spelling of Fahrrinnnentiefe is the source's."}],"constants_total":52,"constraints":[{"id":"C1","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C2","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C3","kind":"CAPACITY"},{"id":"C4","kind":"CONTRACT"},{"id":"C5","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C6","kind":"CAPACITY"},{"id":"C7","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C8","kind":"REGULATORY"},{"id":"C9","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C10","kind":"CONTRACT"},{"id":"C11","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C12","kind":"PHYSICAL"}],"constraints_total":12,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"Kaub gauge","to":"usable loading draft at the Middle Rhine bottleneck","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":0},"statement":"The gauge sets the channel depth through a fixed offset of 113 cm; at the record of −6 cm on 1 October the loading draft fell to 87 cm, below an empty large vessel's draft, and on 15 October (F5) it was still 102 cm."},{"id":"L2","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"usable loading draft","to":"tonnes per tanker sailing to Basel","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":2},"statement":"Tonnes per sailing fall with the draft: a quarter of normal load at 44 cm in mid-July, a sixth for a large vessel at 60 cm by the carrier's own table, and nothing for conventional vessels below about 30 cm. The Atlas has no loading series; the constraint makes the link necessary."},{"id":"L3","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"tonnes per tanker sailing","to":"spot freight per tonne, ARA to the Upper Rhine","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":14},"statement":"Fewer tonnes per sailing and contracts that lapse at 80 cm push importers onto spot freight: about 200 EUR per tonne to Karlsruhe in early October against about 20 in January. Press figures only; no open freight series exists."},{"id":"L4","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Kaub gauge and draft","to":"mineral oil landed at the Swiss Rhine ports","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"Monthly inbound mineral oil fell with the gauge in the same month: 93,982 t in July (F11) when the daily mean first dropped below GlW (F6), 38,791 t in August (F12) and 33,584 t in September (F13), 27 percent of June. Total inbound cargo fell too (F17 to F18), so the cause is the river, not the fuel market alone."},{"id":"L5","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"lost barge tonnage","to":"rail, pipeline and road substitution, and rail congestion","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":7,"max":60},"statement":"About 16 percent of Swiss mineral-oil imports had to move to rail (31 percent of imports in normal times), pipeline (41 percent, serving the west) or road. The federal office states that Rhine cargo was shifted onto an already heavily used railway and that deliveries from Germany then failed; the Atlas has no rail tonnage series."},{"id":"L6","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"failed rail deliveries and depleted site stocks","to":"federal release of compulsory stocks","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":14},"statement":"Facing failed jet-fuel trains to Zurich, the delegate released up to 30,000 m³ of jet fuel on 15 October (6.5 percent of the stock) and, after pipeline delays, up to 45,000 m³ of diesel on 23 October. Both releases stay inside the 20 percent the delegate may grant alone."},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"spot barge freight","to":"German national heating-oil consumer price, net of the common crude shock","status":"CONTRADICTED","lag_days":{"min":7,"max":42},"statement":"If Rhine freight entered the national average, the Germany-minus-Belgium spread should have widened as Kaub fell. It moved from 132 EUR per 1000 L at the end of June to 167.8 on 19 October, below its January level of 206 and within its weekly swings (82 on 7 September, 171.4 on 21 September). The national series does not show the premium. The reviewer's recomputation on the same series: correlation between the weekly spread and the Kaub mean of the preceding seven days, July to October, r = 0.05 (n = 16); on monthly means Belgium rose faster than Germany from June to September."},{"id":"L8","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"spot barge freight","to":"delivered fuel prices in the Rhine-supplied Länder (Nordrhein-Westfalen, Hessen, Rheinland-Pfalz)","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":7,"max":42},"statement":"The premium is measured where product arrives by Rhine barge, not in the south: on 24 October heating oil cost 178.52 EUR per 100 L in Hessen, 177.30 in Rheinland-Pfalz and 177.22 in Nordrhein-Westfalen against 170.78 in Niedersachsen, with Baden-Württemberg (MiRO) at 172.55 and Bayern (southern crude pipelines) at 172.86; the Bundeskartellamt found pump-price gaps of up to 11 cents per litre in July and the ADAC more than 8 cents in August, attributed to Rhine low water. The Swiss monthly mean rose 35.3 percent from June to September, less than the German and Belgian Monday readings over the same weeks (49.5 and 55.8 percent, F19 to F35 and F23 to F36), so no national Swiss premium shows either. A daily Bundesland series is the one to collect."},{"id":"L9","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"ARA route cut at Kaub","to":"MiRO's Upper Rhine barge volumes and its refinery-gate prices","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":7,"max":60},"statement":"Two documented facts with opposite price signs: barges left on the Upper Rhine load at Karlsruhe for Strasbourg and Basel, and tankers from Karlsruhe can take more load than those crossing Kaub (volume advantage, evidenced by Platts, tankterminals and the Swiss Rhine ports); and suppliers at the refinery cut truck-loading prices for heating oil, diesel and petrol to clear product they can no longer barge away (gate discount, Argus 30 July). The earlier reading of a regional sales premium is withdrawn. What remains untested is the landed price at Basel of Karlsruhe product against ARA product plus spot freight; no refinery price or loading series is in the Atlas."}],"alternatives":[{"id":"A1","status":"WEAKENED"},{"id":"A2","status":"SUPPORTED"},{"id":"A3","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A4","status":"OPEN"}],"alternatives_total":4,"conjectures":[{"locked":true,"id":"J1","statement":"While the Kaub daily mean stays below 40 cm, monthly inbound mineral oil at the Swiss Rhine ports stays below 60,000 t, roughly the August-September band and under half of June; the floor is not zero because shallow-draft tankers and Karlsruhe shuttles keep moving.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"FREE"},{"locked":true,"id":"J2","statement":"A German gauge drove a Swiss federal decision: with Kaub at 9 cm on 15 October, the federal office reports other goods already shifted from the Rhine onto a heavily used railway (that fuel moved with them is inferred), rail deliveries from Germany then failed, and the delegate released jet fuel worth about 4.7 days of 2026 taxed consumption to bridge an 18-day window at Zurich. The stock on hand implied by the 6.5 percent, about 461,500 cubic metres, covers about 72 days of that consumption, 2.4 months against the statutory three. Further releases follow if the gauge stays low into the heating season, inside the delegate's 20 percent ceiling.","scope":"CROSS_GEOGRAPHY","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J3","statement":"Low water is a volume event with an undetermined price sign for the refinery above the bottleneck: its barges serve Strasbourg and Basel while the ARA route is closed, and tankers loading at Karlsruhe carry more than those crossing Kaub, but suppliers at the gate cut truck-loading prices to clear product that a quarter of the refinery's dispatch can no longer barge away. Its normal monthly barge dispatch is 2.6 times the Swiss ports' June intake, so Swiss supply from Karlsruhe is limited by Upper Rhine draft and tanker availability, not by refinery volume; whether Basel pays Karlsruhe a premium or a discount is open.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"LOW","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J4","statement":"The national Germany-minus-Belgium spread cannot detect the Rhine premium: its change from late June to mid-October is under a quarter of the per-tonne freight rise, so either less than a quarter of German heating-oil volume is priced off Rhine freight, or the premium is regional and averaged away. The measured premium sits in Hessen, Rheinland-Pfalz and Nordrhein-Westfalen against Niedersachsen and Hamburg, not in Baden-Württemberg or Switzerland, whose monthly mean rose less than Germany's; the test belongs in a daily Bundesland series, not in the Weekly Oil Bulletin.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"FREE"}],"trajectories":[{"locked":true,"id":"T1","name":"Swiss Rhine port intake and the DE minus BE heating-oil spread to the end of 2026, around the BfG central path","horizon":{"from":"2026-10-24","to":"2026-12-31"},"tier":"PREMIUM","branches":[{"id":"bfg-central-path-below-100","condition":{"indicator":"Kaub daily mean water level on 30 November 2026 (the reading on that date, not persistence); the BfG median path puts November weekly means at about 45 to 65 cm","series_key":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","op":"<","value":100,"by":"2026-11-30"}},{"id":"recovery-at-or-above-100","condition":{"indicator":"Kaub daily mean water level on 30 November 2026 (the reading on that date); the BfG 75th percentile reaches 100 cm only in weeks 4 to 6","series_key":"kaub-stage-mean-cm","op":">=","value":100,"by":"2026-11-30"}}]}],"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-10-24","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes":"Counter-analysis 2026-10-24 (docs/night-2026-10-24/rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md): all 33 quotes verified at their URLs; two constants and the trajectory need rework, nothing rejected. K13: 'almost ten times' read as 10 puts January at 20 EUR/t; ZDF/Reuters (4 Aug) gives 45 EUR/t at end-June and S&P 35 EUR/t pre-shock ARA-Basel, so the rise (C4, J4) is 155-165 not 180. K19: SAPPRO publishes a current throughput (about 1 million m3 a year, about 10 percent of Swiss consumption), superseding 2004; C6 headroom falls to about 55,000-60,000 t a month, and the 41 percent pipeline share (K16) is mostly crude to the Cressier refinery via the Jura pipeline, which is absent from organisations. T1: BfG 6-week forecast of 22 Oct puts weekly-mean medians at about 40/60/45/65/65/85 cm and the 14-day forecast a daily-mean peak near 91 cm on 28-29 Oct, so the likely November path (40-100 cm) falls between the two branches; add a middle branch; spread bands 80-210 and 40-170 are narrower than the series' own July-October range (-82 to 171). L7 CONTRADICTED confirmed: spread versus Kaub r=0.05, Belgium rose faster than Germany June-September, and the Swiss BFS monthly mean rose 35.3 percent against 40.7 (DE) and 44.2 (BE). L8/J4: the regional premium exists but sits in NRW, Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz (Bundeskartellamt July, ADAC 19 Aug, esyoil Bundesland 24 Oct: Hessen 178.52, RLP 177.30, NRW 177.22 against Niedersachsen 170.78 EUR/100 L; BW 172.55, Bayern 172.86), not in Baden-Wuerttemberg or Switzerland; re-aim the falsifier. J2: on BAZG 2026 H1 taxed jet volumes the release is 4.7 days, not 5.9, and the stock on hand is about 2.4 months; the third falsifier's direction is inverted. J3/L9: Argus 30 Jul documents Karlsruhe suppliers lowering truck-loading prices to clear trapped product, so the refinery-gate sign is a discount, not a premium; keep the volume advantage, drop 'margin event'. K3: 20 cm keel clearance is Contargo's; a 30 cm margin (official rule of thumb per pegeltiefgang.com) gives 77 cm of loading draft at the minimum. K8: BAW states 'bis zu 200 Tonnen' per 20 cm, an upper end. K9: Hapag-Lloyd publishes Kaub tiers down to 25 cm from 1 Nov; no public tanker clause found. Organisations: port-of-antwerp-bruges quote not on the page; MiRO BENEFICIARY reasoning must carry the Argus discount; add Cressier (VARO), SPSE/Jura pipeline and Avenergy Suisse. Analyst's earlier flags retained below. Previous notes by the author: Drafted from the seven series, thirty-three constants and a minimal edition written for the figures. Points for the counter-analyst: K3 to K6 and K9 describe container vessels and container carriage terms, used as the only public Rhine loading and contract rules; K7 is a single spokesperson's figure; K8 is trade press, not the BAW document; K18 and K19 are 2004 pipeline figures; K29 and K30 are chart labels; the DE minus BE spread is a national average and L7 is marked contradicted on that basis, with the regional test left untested; the day counts below GlW (74 days to 24 September) come from the signal summary and are not recomputed figures. Rework round 1 applied on 2026-10-24T02:01:10Z: item 1 (T1 rebuilt around the BfG central path with K50-K52, conditions as readings on 30 November, spread bands set to the series' own July-October and pre-July ranges), item 2 (L8 and J4 re-aimed to NRW, Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz with K40-K47, Swiss BFS means K48-K49; L7 kept CONTRADICTED with the reviewer's r = 0.05 noted), item 3 (J3 and L9 rewritten around the Argus refinery-gate discount K39, volume advantage kept), item 4 (K13 read as nine, C4 on the ZDF end-June baseline K34, K19 replaced by SAPPRO's current 1 million m3 with K35-K36 and C6 recomputed, BAZG volumes K37-K38 in J2), item 5 (organisations: Antwerp quote replaced by the served page title, MiRO BENEFICIARY reasoning carries the discount, SPSE and Avenergy Suisse added; Cressier not added because VARO's own article answers 404 on both of its domains). Disagreements kept as reviewer notes without edits to accepted items: K3 20 cm against the 30 cm rule of thumb, K8 as an upper end, C7 on the statutory stock basis (BAZG basis in J2), K29-K30 rounding band. Round 2 by atlas-counter-analyst, 2026-10-24: all new quotes (K13, K19, K34-K52; organisations port-of-antwerp-bruges, miro-karlsruhe, spse, avenergy-suisse) re-fetched and found verbatim; C4 = 155, C6 = 58,333.33, J2 = 4.71 days, J4 = 23.1 percent, F34-F36 and the T1 bands recomputed from the series and the BfG PDFs and found right; L8 CONSISTENT, J2/J3/J4 and T1 accepted. Verdict ACCEPTED; no REJECT and no REWORK remains on a constant, a check or a trajectory. Disagreements kept as notes, not edits: K3 20 cm against the 30 cm rule of thumb (77 cm of loading draft at the minimum); K8 as an upper end (BAW 'bis zu 200 Tonnen'); C7 on the statutory stock basis (26 percent of the jet window on BAZG consumption, stock on hand 2.4 months); K29-K30 rounding band 28-60 percent; K16 note still names SAPPRO only; L8 compares a Swiss monthly-mean rise with German and Belgian Monday readings (on monthly means 40.7 and 44.2 percent); L3 still says 'about 20 in January'; T1 conditions rest on one day's reading on 30 November; K18's 1.5 Mt licence is a 2006 figure; the SPSE 8 Mt figure sits on the presentation page, not the quoted one; Cressier (VARO) could be a DEDUCED entry on the SPSE quote. Details in docs/night-2026-10-24/rhine-kaub-record-low-fuel-supply-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md, section Round 2."},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-10-24","constants":52,"constraints":12,"links":9,"untested":1,"contradicted":1,"alternatives":4,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"Premium newsletter — published pack library","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Access to every published pack, old and new, while your official Premium right is valid; new packs join the same library","Three formats per pack: dossier bundle as JSON, organisations as CSV and redistributable series as CSV","Provenance, licences, hashes and review notes where available; restricted observations withheld and unfinished dossiers labelled honestly","A member key for available full data on the JSON API and MCP; no free newsletter subscription without separate consent"],"delivery":"Download the archive from your native account while the official right is valid. 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