{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","title":"Lower Danube low water at Ruse, maize export prices at Constanta and Hungary's maize imports, 2025–2026","date":"2026-10-21","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","geography":[{"code":"BG","name":"Ruse, Bulgaria (Danube gauge km 495.6)","latitude":43.856,"longitude":25.954},{"code":"RO","name":"Constanta port and the Romanian lower Danube","latitude":44.17,"longitude":28.65},{"code":"HU","name":"Hungary, Great Plain maize region","latitude":47,"longitude":20.5},{"code":"RS","name":"Serbia, middle Danube","latitude":44.82,"longitude":20.46},{"code":"UA","name":"Ukraine, Danube ports of Izmail and Reni","latitude":45.35,"longitude":28.84}],"source_url":"https://www.bta.bg/en/news/balkans/1229351-danube-at-critical-low-in-ruse-as-officials-push-for-navigation-improvements","summary":"EAEMDR readings put the Danube at Ruse between −134 and −120 cm below gauge zero from 25 October to 1 November 2026, against a 2025 daily-mean minimum of −59 cm (12 July) and −15 cm on 1 November 2025. 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average daily water level at gauge Ruse (km 495.60), 2025, EAEMDR annual table of average daily hydrological data, cm relative to gauge zero 11.80 m (Baltic-Kronstadt)","unit":"cm","geography":"BG-18","publisher":"appd-bg","source_url":"https://www.appd-bg.org/documents/kpetrov/14_Apr_2026_13_48_52_Ruse_2025.pdf","source_sha256":"0e9e6bd2ec3b9f53d3d92a33822f0865c9192529579344c2af3d712c7f188a51","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:45:57+01:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-12-20","value":150},{"period":"2025-12-21","value":142},{"period":"2025-12-22","value":128},{"period":"2025-12-23","value":115},{"period":"2025-12-24","value":101},{"period":"2025-12-25","value":94},{"period":"2025-12-26","value":97},{"period":"2025-12-27","value":95},{"period":"2025-12-28","value":92},{"period":"2025-12-29","value":86},{"period":"2025-12-30","value":67},{"period":"2025-12-31","value":57}]}],"edition":{"title":"The Danube at Ruse sank a metre under zero and Constanța's premium over Romania's river silos widened by 21.57 EUR/t on the year, while Hungary, barred from Ukrainian maize, imports from its neighbours.","lead":"The Danube at Ruse read between −134 and −120 cm from 25 October to 1 November 2026, against a lowest daily mean of −59 cm in 2025. In week 43 Constanța FOB maize stood 40.84 EUR/t above the Muntenia silo price, against 19.27 a year earlier; the gap over the Bulgarian Ruse price is larger only in level, because that notification stood at 177.00 EUR/t until mid-September. Hungary imported 30,469 tonnes of maize in August, before a season that last year peaked at 118,774 tonnes in December.","published_at":"2026-11-01","vectors":["ruse-level-cm","maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","hu-maize-imports-world-t"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"ruse-level-cm","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-134},{"id":"F2","series":"ruse-level-cm","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-01","value":-120},{"id":"F4","series":"ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-59},{"id":"F5","series":"ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","stat":"value","period":"2025-11-01","value":-15},{"id":"F6","series":"ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","stat":"value","period":"2025-11-15","value":108},{"id":"F7","series":"ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","stat":"value","period":"2025-12-01","value":239},{"id":"F8","series":"ruse-level-daily-mean-2024-cm","stat":"value","period":"2024-11-01","value":187},{"id":"F9","series":"ruse-level-daily-mean-2024-cm","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-18},{"id":"F10","series":"ruse-discharge-daily-mean-2025-m3s","stat":"min","period":null,"value":2021},{"id":"F12","series":"maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W27","value":191.7},{"id":"F13","series":"maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":244.49},{"id":"F14","series":"maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":200.62},{"id":"F15","series":"maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","stat":"max","period":null,"value":246.34},{"id":"F16","series":"maize-ruse-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W27","value":177},{"id":"F17","series":"maize-ruse-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":185},{"id":"F18","series":"maize-ruse-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":191.74},{"id":"F19","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W27","value":14.7},{"id":"F20","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":59.49},{"id":"F21","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":8.88},{"id":"F23","series":"maize-hu-great-plain-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":235.86},{"id":"F24","series":"maize-hu-great-plain-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":185.26},{"id":"F25","series":"hu-maize-imports-world-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":30468.611},{"id":"F26","series":"hu-maize-imports-world-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-11","value":90396.689},{"id":"F27","series":"hu-maize-imports-world-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-12","value":118774.128},{"id":"F28","series":"hu-maize-imports-world-t","stat":"value","period":"2024-11","value":37583.189},{"id":"F29","series":"hu-maize-imports-world-t","stat":"value","period":"2024-12","value":41128.417},{"id":"F30","series":"hu-maize-imports-sk-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":9887.585},{"id":"F31","series":"hu-maize-imports-ro-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":8504.978},{"id":"F32","series":"hu-maize-imports-sk-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-04","value":41325.6},{"id":"F33","series":"hu-maize-imports-world-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-04","value":69195.532},{"id":"F34","series":"ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","stat":"value","period":"2025-10-21","value":39},{"id":"F36","series":"maize-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":203.65},{"id":"F37","series":"maize-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W27","value":194.94},{"id":"F38","series":"maize-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":181.35},{"id":"F39","series":"maize-oltenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":185.29},{"id":"F40","series":"maize-oltenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":174.85},{"id":"F41","series":"maize-oltenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W27","value":204.3},{"id":"F42","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":40.84},{"id":"F43","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":19.27},{"id":"F44","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W27","value":-3.24},{"id":"F45","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"max","period":null,"value":66.69},{"id":"F46","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W47","value":37.35},{"id":"F47","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-W52","value":11},{"id":"F48","series":"hu-maize-imports-xs-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-04","value":26713.948},{"id":"F49","series":"hu-maize-imports-xs-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":5705.38},{"id":"F50","series":"hu-maize-imports-xs-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":1760.8},{"id":"F51","series":"hu-maize-imports-xs-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-03","value":19235.838},{"id":"F52","series":"hu-maize-imports-sk-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-12","value":33820.114},{"id":"F53","series":"hu-maize-imports-sk-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-11","value":37205.713},{"id":"F54","series":"hu-maize-imports-world-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-04","value":37276.411},{"id":"F55","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":37.86},{"id":"F56","series":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W39","value":22.19},{"id":"F57","series":"hu-maize-imports-xs-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":1497.78}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Danube level and discharge at Ruse, daily, with the six-day forecast, EAEMDR","source_url":"https://www.appd-bg.org/hidrology-en"},{"indicator":"Feed maize prices, Constanța FOB and Muntenia and Oltenia departure from silo, weekly, DG AGRI","source_url":"https://api.tech.ec.europa.eu/agrifood/api/cereal/prices?memberStateCodes=HU,RO,BG&productCodes=MAI&beginDate=01/01/2025&endDate=31/12/2026"},{"indicator":"Hungary maize imports, all partners, monthly, Eurostat Comext DS-045409","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?freq=M&reporter=HU&partner=WORLD&product=10059000&flow=1&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&sinceTimePeriod=2024-01"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"fob-muntenia-gap-closes-if-river-recovers","signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","statement":"If the Danube at Ruse reads at or above −60 cm on 30 November 2026, the weekly gap between Constanța FOB feed maize and the Muntenia departure-from-silo price (DG AGRI) falls to 35 EUR/t or less in at least one week of December 2026, from 40.84 in week 43, as barges return to the reach above Cernavodă.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Danube level at Ruse, daily (EAEMDR), on 30 November 2026","source_url":"https://www.appd-bg.org/hidrology-en","series_key":"ruse-level-cm","threshold":{"op":">=","value":-60}},{"name":"Constanța FOB minus Muntenia silo price, weekly, December 2026 (derived from DG AGRI)","source_url":"https://api.tech.ec.europa.eu/agrifood/api/cereal/prices?memberStateCodes=HU,RO,BG&productCodes=MAI&beginDate=01/01/2025&endDate=31/12/2026","series_key":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":35}}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"fob-muntenia-gap-holds-if-river-stays-low","signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","statement":"If the Danube at Ruse is still below −60 cm on 30 November 2026, every weekly gap between Constanța FOB feed maize and the Muntenia departure-from-silo price notified in December 2026 stays at or above 35 EUR/t; a print under 25 EUR/t while Ruse is below −100 cm breaks the river reading.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Danube level at Ruse, daily (EAEMDR), on 30 November 2026","source_url":"https://www.appd-bg.org/hidrology-en","series_key":"ruse-level-cm","threshold":{"op":"<","value":-60}},{"name":"Constanța FOB minus Muntenia silo price, weekly, December 2026 (derived from DG AGRI)","source_url":"https://api.tech.ec.europa.eu/agrifood/api/cereal/prices?memberStateCodes=HU,RO,BG&productCodes=MAI&beginDate=01/01/2025&endDate=31/12/2026","series_key":"maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":35}}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-15","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"hungary-imports-above-60000-t-whatever-the-river","signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","statement":"While Government Decree 91/2026 keeps Ukrainian maize out of the Hungarian market, Hungary's maize imports from all partners (Eurostat Comext) reach at least 60,000 tonnes in each of November and December 2026, whatever the Danube level, because the crop shortfall sets the volume and the river only the route.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Hungary maize imports, all partners, monthly, November and December 2026 (Eurostat Comext DS-045409)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?freq=M&reporter=HU&partner=WORLD&product=10059000&flow=1&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&sinceTimePeriod=2024-01","series_key":"hu-maize-imports-world-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":60000}},{"name":"Hungarian Government Decree 91/2026 (V. 22.) on Ukrainian agricultural products, still in force","source_url":"https://njt.jog.gov.hu/jogszabaly/2026-91-20-22","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-02-28","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"comvex","name":"Comvex SA","country":"RO","sector":"NACE H52.24 Cargo handling","website":"https://www.comvex.ro/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-grain-exports-squeezed-as-danube-hits-record-low-levels/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"general director at Comvex SA, one of the operators of the grain terminal. But the Danube feeds cargo to the terminal and “the fact that there isn’t enough water affects the quantity of grain that arrives.”"},"reasoning":"The article (Bloomberg via gCaptain, 10 August 2026) quotes Comvex's general director: the Constanța grain terminal has spare capacity but receives less grain because the Danube is too low to feed it. Inferred: fewer barge arrivals mean lower throughput and handling revenue while the FOB–upriver gap widens; the article speaks of grain in general, not maize specifically.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","maize-ruse-eur-t","maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t","ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm"]}]},{"slug":"rwa-raiffeisen-agro-romania","name":"RWA Raiffeisen Agro România SRL","country":"RO","sector":"NACE G46.21 Wholesale of grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds and animal feeds","website":"https://raiffeisen-agro.ro/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-grain-exports-squeezed-as-danube-hits-record-low-levels/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"“Since 2022, Constanta’s role has been to be the relief valve — when Odesa is under attack, cargo goes west and out through Romania. That assumes the corridor feeding Constanta has slack. It doesn’t,”"},"reasoning":"The page attributes this quote to the head of trade at RWA Raiffeisen Agro Romania: the corridor feeding Constanța has no spare capacity. Inferred: a grain trader that buys from Romanian farms and sells to Constanța bears the freight and timing risk that the FOB–Ruse gap measures. Its own volumes on the Danube are not shown.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","maize-ruse-eur-t","maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t","ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm"]}]},{"slug":"forumul-appr","name":"Asociația Forumul Agricultorilor și Procesatorilor Profesioniști din România (Forumul APPR)","country":"RO","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://forumulappr.ro/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-grain-exports-squeezed-as-danube-hits-record-low-levels/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"For growers looking to move wheat, sunflower and rapeseed downriver toward Constanta, this means fewer barge rotations, longer waiting times and higher freight rates on the Danube corridor that are already running above seasonal norms, the Forum of Professional Farmers and Processors of Romania added in a statement."},"reasoning":"The farmers' federation states that low water means fewer barge rotations, longer waits and higher freight for crops moving down the Danube to Constanța. The statement names wheat, sunflower and rapeseed in August; that maize from the autumn harvest meets the same constraint is an inference, consistent with the widening Constanța FOB–Ruse gap.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","maize-ruse-eur-t","maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t","ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm"]}]},{"slug":"arrow-shipbroking","name":"Arrow Shipbroking Group","country":"GB","sector":"NACE H52.29 Other transportation support activities (shipbroking)","website":"https://arrowship.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-grain-exports-squeezed-as-danube-hits-record-low-levels/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"“With no immediate relief in sight, either through an easing of hostilities in the Black Sea or a recovery in Danube water levels, prices could remain well supported,”"},"reasoning":"The page attributes this view to the global head of research at Arrow, a shipping and energy brokerage, linking Danube water levels to supported prices. A London broker earns on fixtures and research rather than on cargo; its stake in the shock is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","ruse-level-cm"]}]},{"slug":"european-commission","name":"European Commission","country":"BE","sector":"NACE O84.11 General public administration activities","website":"https://commission.europa.eu/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-grain-exports-squeezed-as-danube-hits-record-low-levels/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The Solidarity Lane project was launched by the European Commission in 2022 to help establish alternatives to Black Sea shipping routes for Ukrainian agricultural exports."},"reasoning":"The quote is background on the Solidarity Lanes, not a 2026 Commission statement or decision on the low Danube, so the exposure is inferred: the Commission's corridor policy and the DG AGRI price notifications used in this signal both sit on this chain; no 2026 Commission measure on low water is shown.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","maize-ruse-eur-t","maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"eaemdr","name":"Executive Agency for Exploration and Maintenance of the Danube River (ИАППД)","country":"BG","sector":"NACE H52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.appd-bg.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bta.bg/en/news/balkans/1229351-danube-at-critical-low-in-ruse-as-officials-push-for-navigation-improvements","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"She took part in a conference marking the 70th anniversary of Bulgaria’s Executive Agency for Exploration and Maintenance of the Danube River, during which officials discussed the impact of extreme water levels on navigation."},"reasoning":"BTA reports (21 October 2026) that the agency's conference discussed the record low at Ruse and its effect on navigation; the agency also publishes the Ruse gauge readings used in this signal. Its role in dredging and fairway maintenance under FAST Danube 2 is stated in the same article; budget or contract effects are not shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","ruse-discharge-daily-mean-2025-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"danube-commission","name":"Danube Commission","country":"HU","sector":"NACE U99.00 Activities of extraterritorial organisations","website":"https://www.danubecommission.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bta.bg/en/news/balkans/1229351-danube-at-critical-low-in-ruse-as-officials-push-for-navigation-improvements","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"stated that countries along the river were cooperating on joint measures and early-warning systems to prevent accidents and ships running aground."},"reasoning":"The BTA article attributes this statement to the Danube Commission's president at the Ruse conference on the record low. The Commission coordinates navigation rules and publishes the port factsheets used as a source here; it bears no commercial loss, so its exposure is institutional.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm"]}]},{"slug":"afdj-galati","name":"Administrația Fluvială a Dunării de Jos Galați (AFDJ)","country":"RO","sector":"NACE H52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.afdj.ro/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://latifundist.com/en/novosti/70752-stavki-frahtu-na-dunayi-zrosli-vdvichi-z-posilennyam-obstriliv-rf-portiv-velikoyi-odesi--asap-agri","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The Cernavodă gauge fell by another 4 cm d/d on 22 July, with the water level forecast to decline by a further 5 cm over the following days, according to Romania’s Lower Danube River Administration."},"reasoning":"The article (Latifundist, 23 July 2026) cites the Lower Danube River Administration for the Cernavodă gauge, the critical point on the barge route to Constanța. AFDJ maintains the Romanian fairway and publishes daily levels; that it faces dredging pressure is inferred. Its feed was not used for series because reuse terms are unestablished.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm"]}]},{"slug":"anar","name":"Administrația Națională Apele Române (ANAR)","country":"RO","sector":"NACE E36.00 Water collection, treatment and supply","website":"https://rowater.ro/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://latifundist.com/en/novosti/70752-stavki-frahtu-na-dunayi-zrosli-vdvichi-z-posilennyam-obstriliv-rf-portiv-velikoyi-odesi--asap-agri","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The Danube’s flow at Romania’s entry point also dropped to 1,700 cubic metres per second over the weekend, compared with the July average of 4,700 cubic metres per second, according to Romania’s state water-management agency."},"reasoning":"The article cites Romania's state water-management agency for the Danube discharge at Romania's entry point in July 2026. ANAR manages water allocation, including irrigation and cooling uses that compete with navigation in a low-flow year; that trade-off is inferred, not stated.","series_keys":["ruse-discharge-daily-mean-2025-m3s","ruse-level-cm"]}]},{"slug":"asap-agri","name":"ASAP Agri","country":"UA","sector":"NACE M73.20 Market research and public opinion polling","website":"https://asapagri.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://latifundist.com/en/novosti/70752-stavki-frahtu-na-dunayi-zrosli-vdvichi-z-posilennyam-obstriliv-rf-portiv-velikoyi-odesi--asap-agri","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"ASAP Agri compared the freight to Constanta barges vs coasters. For this, they take freight from the Danube to Marmara and make a minus 2 USD/MT. It showed that the sharp increase in barge rates has significantly reduced their competitiveness."},"reasoning":"ASAP Agri published the barge-freight comparison for the Izmail/Reni–Constanța route and attributes the rise to low water and diverted Ukrainian cargo. As an analytics firm it sells the information the shock creates; any revenue effect is inferred.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","ruse-level-cm"]}]},{"slug":"atria-brokers","name":"Atria Brokers","country":"UA","sector":"NACE H52.29 Other transportation support activities (freight brokerage)","website":"https://www.atriabrokers.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://latifundist.com/en/novosti/70752-stavki-frahtu-na-dunayi-zrosli-vdvichi-z-posilennyam-obstriliv-rf-portiv-velikoyi-odesi--asap-agri","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"\"The situation with barges on the Danube is more complicated than it seems. Water levels are historically low and continue to decline daily, leaving barges significantly underloaded. Freight indications are therefore highly conditional, as the final cost depends on the available draft, actual loading volume, vessel and cargo,”"},"reasoning":"The page attributes this quote to the head of freight brokerage at Atria Brokers: low water leaves barges underloaded and makes freight quotes conditional on draft. A broker arranging barges and coasters may gain from volatility and from cargo switching to coasters; that gain is inferred.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"tts-group","name":"TTS (Transport Trade Services) S.A.","country":"RO","sector":"NACE H50.40 Inland freight water transport","website":"https://www.tts-group.ro/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bvb.ro/infocont/infocont26/TTS_20260831163831_Raport-S1---2026-EN---BVB.pdf","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Conditions remain difficult, however, as Danube water levels allow only reduced convoy loads (maximum 800 – 1.000 tons/barge, respectively 50-60% of grain loading capacity) and the almost exclusive use of low- and medium-capacity pushers (MERCUR 100 and MERCUR 200 classes)."},"reasoning":"TTS Group's half-year report of 31 August 2026 (Bucharest Stock Exchange) states that navigation upstream of Cernavoda was interrupted from July 2026, that contracts with a river leg to or from ports upstream of Cernavoda were suspended under force majeure clauses, that activity was suspended at its Oltenita, Giurgiu and Bechet terminals, that two-thirds of its covered barge fleet was relocated downstream of Cernavoda, and that loads there are capped at 800-1,000 tonnes per barge; its 2026 budget assumed resumption upstream at the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4 2026. Its river transport of agricultural products was 0.63 Mt in H1 2026 against 0.71 a year earlier.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","maize-constanta-fob-minus-muntenia-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"cargill-agricultura-romania","name":"Cargill Agricultura S.R.L.","country":"RO","sector":"NACE G46.21 Wholesale of grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds and animal feeds","website":"https://www.cargill.ro/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bvb.ro/infocont/infocont26/TTS_20260722121451_Comunicat-extindere-capacitate-CANOPUS-EN.pdf","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Canopus Star S.R.L. Constanța, one of the three port operators of the TTS Group in the Port of Constanța, is a joint venture owned by TTS (Transport Trade Services) S.A. and Cargill Agricultura S.R.L., specializing in the handling of agricultural commodities."},"reasoning":"TTS's stock-exchange filing (July 2026) shows Cargill co-owning the Canopus grain terminal in Constanța, which was just expanded with a new receiving station for river barges. Inferred: fewer and lighter barges reduce the return on that new barge intake while Cargill's origination margin depends on the FOB–upriver gap.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","maize-ruse-eur-t","maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"umex","name":"Umex SA","country":"RO","sector":"NACE H52.24 Cargo handling","website":"https://www.umex.ro/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.umex.ro/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Operăm anual o cantitate de până la 1.000.000 tone de cereale și putem depozita concomitent o cantitate de 25.000 tone de cereale."},"reasoning":"Romanian-language quote: Umex handles up to one million tonnes of grain a year in Constanța with 25,000 t of storage. Inferred: a terminal partly fed by river barges loses throughput when the Danube is low; the share of its grain arriving by barge is not shown.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","maize-ruse-eur-t","maize-constanta-fob-minus-ruse-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"cn-apm-constanta","name":"Compania Națională Administrația Porturilor Maritime SA Constanța","country":"RO","sector":"NACE H52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.portofconstantza.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl/actueel/nieuws/2026/08/19/pressure-rises-in-the-romanian-port-of-constanta","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The Port of Constanța itself still has room to handle additional Ukrainian cargo."},"reasoning":"The Dutch agricultural attaché network (19 August 2026) reports spare capacity at the port while low water and attacks on Ukrainian ports complicate grain flows. That the port authority's dues fall with fewer barge arrivals is inferred; the quote does not name the authority itself.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm"]}]},{"slug":"ukrainian-danube-shipping-company","name":"PrJSC Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company (UDP)","country":"UA","sector":"NACE H50.40 Inland freight water transport","website":"https://www.udp.one/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://en.cfts.org.ua/news/udp_loading_vessel_with_over_45000_deadweight_tons_for_first_time","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"\"The UDP has retained the ability to handle large ships at a time of suspension of grain shipments from Odesa ports. Despite the traditional shallow waters on the River Danube, which can complicate the handling of ships, the company's caravans of river barges will continue to go to Constanta,\" the shipping company said."},"reasoning":"The quote is a July 2023 CFTS report from an earlier low-water episode, used as an analogue; no 2026 statement from UDP on the Constanta run was found on 1 November 2026 (the CFTS low-water pages date from 2022, and GMK Center's 14 August 2026 review of Ukrainian Danube logistics names no UDP statement). Inferred for 2026: its convoys compete with Romanian and Serbian maize for the same lower-Danube draught and Constanta berths; TTS's H1 2026 report names Reni and Izmail as routes its own relocated fleet now serves, so UDP's 2026 position is not shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","maize-constanta-fob-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"ukrainian-sea-ports-authority","name":"State Enterprise Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA)","country":"UA","sector":"NACE H52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.uspa.gov.ua/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://en.cfts.org.ua/news/shallowing_of_river_danube_and_russian_attacks_constrain_izmail_and_reni_ports_operations","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The seasonal shallowing of the River Danube and Russian attacks on port infrastructure are currently constraining the operations of the Izmail and Reni ports."},"reasoning":"The quote is an August 2023 CFTS report from an earlier low-water episode, used as an analogue; it places Izmail and Reni on the low-water chain, and both ports are run by USPA branches, which the quote does not state. For 2026 the inference rests on trade reports (Latifundist, July 2026: Izmail/Reni barge rates doubling; GMK Center, 14 August 2026: draught of about 1.8-1.9 m on the route to Constanta) and on TTS naming Reni and Izmail among the routes its relocated fleet serves; no 2026 USPA statement is shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","maize-constanta-fob-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"danube-logistics","name":"Danube Logistics SRL (Giurgiulești International Free Port)","country":"MD","sector":"NACE H52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.gifp.md/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/grain-freight-from-giurgiulesti-to-constanta-jumps-to-75-t-as-danube-water-levels-fall/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"To partly address the problem, the port of Giurgiulesti has approved a new two-stage vessel loading scheme. Ships will first be partially loaded at the berth before proceeding to mile 72 of the Danube, where additional cargo will be transferred from barges."},"reasoning":"UkrAgroConsult (5 October 2026) reports Giurgiulești freight to Constanța at about 75 USD/t and a two-stage loading scheme caused by low water. Danube Logistics is the port's operator (Pro Danube member list); the operator link is from that list, not from this quote. Outside the signal's geography, it competes for barges and sea vessels on the same reach.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","maize-constanta-fob-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"trans-oil-group","name":"Trans-Oil Group","country":"MD","sector":"NACE G46.21 Wholesale of grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds and animal feeds","website":"https://www.transoilcorp.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.danubecommission.org/uploads/doc/Solidarity_UA_EU/Factsheets/Port_factsheet_Giurgiulesti_20.06.2022.pdf","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Trans Oil Group is already transshipping grain originating from Ukraine. Usually they do not provide storage and transshipment services for third parties but prefer to purchase grain and export by themselves."},"reasoning":"The Danube Commission factsheet (June 2022) shows Trans-Oil buying and exporting grain through its own Giurgiulești terminals on the Danube. Inferred: as a Moldovan exporter on the same lower reach it competes for draft-limited vessels and buyers with Romanian and Bulgarian maize; its 2026 volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t","ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm"]}]},{"slug":"ebrd","name":"European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)","country":"GB","sector":"NACE K64.19 Other monetary intermediation","website":"https://www.ebrd.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.prodanube.eu/members","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Danube Logistics SRL is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Dutch company Danube Logistics Holding BV. The sole ultimate owner of Danube Logistics SRL is the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)."},"reasoning":"Pro Danube's member list states that the EBRD is the sole ultimate owner of the Giurgiulești port operator. Inferred: lower port throughput in a low-water year weighs on the value of that holding; the size of the effect is not shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm"]}]},{"slug":"hungrana","name":"Hungrana Keményítő- és Izocukorgyártó és Forgalmazó Kft.","country":"HU","sector":"NACE C10.62 Manufacture of starches and starch products","website":"https://www.hungrana.hu/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hungrana.hu/en/news/februarra-elfogy-a-magyar-kukorica-a-hazai-uzemek-es-a-gazdak-jovoje-a-tet","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Figyelmeztetésük szerint, ha 2027 februárjára elfogy a magyar kukorica, feldolgozók állhatnak le, drágul a takarmány, a gazdák pedig elveszíthetik meghatározó vásárlóikat. Sürgős lépést várnak a döntéshozóktól."},"reasoning":"Hungarian-language quote from Hungrana's own news page: processors warn that Hungarian maize may run out by February 2027, so plants could stop and feed would become dearer. The same article puts the 2026 crop below 1.5 Mt against about 4.2 Mt of demand, lower than the 2.5 Mt cited elsewhere; the link to Danube low water is inferred through import routes, not stated.","series_keys":["hu-maize-imports-world-t","hu-maize-imports-ro-t","hu-maize-imports-sk-t","maize-hu-great-plain-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"pannonia-bio","name":"Pannonia Bio Zrt.","country":"HU","sector":"NACE C20.14 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals (bioethanol)","website":"https://www.pannoniabio.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.pannoniabio.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"As the world’s most advanced grain biorefinery, we turn locally grown corn and barley into renewable energy, sustainable animal feed and high-quality food ingredients."},"reasoning":"Pannonia Bio processes locally grown maize at its Dunaföldvár biorefinery on the Danube. Hungrana's article names it as one of the two large Hungarian maize processors facing the shortfall; that it must import by rail or truck at a higher price than the Great Plain farm-gate is inferred.","series_keys":["hu-maize-imports-world-t","hu-maize-imports-ro-t","hu-maize-imports-sk-t","maize-hu-great-plain-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"touax-river-barges","name":"Touax River Barges","country":"FR","sector":"NACE N77.34 Renting and leasing of water transport equipment","website":"https://www.touax-river-barges.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.prodanube.eu/members","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Touax River Barges currently manages a fleet of 107 river barges, representing over 268.000 tons of freight transport capacity and are the first operational lessor of bulk cargo barges in Europe and South America."},"reasoning":"A Pro Danube member that leases bulk barges in Europe. Inferred: when low water cuts tons per barge, operators need more hulls for the same cargo, which supports lease demand; its Danube fleet share is not shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm"]}]},{"slug":"first-ddsg-logistics","name":"First-DDSG Logistics Holding GmbH","country":"AT","sector":"NACE H50.40 Inland freight water transport","website":"https://www.ddsg-holding.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.prodanube.eu/members","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Their core solutions and services encompass river shipping, bulk, general and oversized cargo transportation."},"reasoning":"An Austrian–Hungarian Danube carrier listed by Pro Danube. Inferred: low water on the middle and lower Danube strands or light-loads its fleet, and the GMK Center analysis (August 2026) notes part of the fleet stuck upriver; its own position is not shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm"]}]},{"slug":"rhenus-logistics","name":"Rhenus Logistics","country":"DE","sector":"NACE H52.29 Other transportation support activities","website":"https://www.rhenus.group/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.prodanube.eu/members","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The company mainly focuses on handling goods like coal, wood, paper, agricultural products, but also project loads, steel and metals, construction materials and minerals - and material flows for disposing of and recycling goods."},"reasoning":"Pro Danube lists Rhenus (Germany, Austria, Serbia) as handling agricultural products with inland waterway, rail and truck links. Inferred: it can lose river volumes and win rail or truck substitution on the same flows; its Danube grain volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","hu-maize-imports-world-t"]}]},{"slug":"mondoluka-plus","name":"Mondoluka Plus d.o.o.","country":"RS","sector":"NACE H50.40 Inland freight water transport","website":"https://www.mondoluka.rs/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.prodanube.eu/members","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"We offer services on the inland waterways from the Black Sea to the North Sea and to the following main destinations (working areas): Danube, Rhine, Main, Main–Danube Canal, Sava, and Tisa."},"reasoning":"A Serbian carrier of bulk cargo by own or chartered river vessels, listed by Pro Danube. Inferred: Serbian maize bound for Constanța must pass the low Bulgarian–Romanian reach, so its loads and rotations suffer; no 2026 statement was found.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","maize-constanta-fob-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"traba-logistics","name":"TRABA Logistics Nederland BV","country":"NL","sector":"NACE H50.40 Inland freight water transport","website":"https://www.trabalogistics.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.prodanube.eu/members","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Today, Traba consists of two business locations: Beuningen (The Netherlands), and Constanta (Romania), offering logistic transport services from the North Sea to the Black Sea."},"reasoning":"A Dutch–Romanian river logistics firm with an office in Constanța, listed by Pro Danube. Inferred: its fleet faces the same draft limits between the lower Danube and Constanța; its cargo mix and grain share are not shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm"]}]},{"slug":"bulgarian-ports-infrastructure-company","name":"State Enterprise Bulgarian Ports Infrastructure Company","country":"BG","sector":"NACE H52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.bgports.bg/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bgports.bg/en","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Four territorial and three specialized divisions of the enterprise are located in Burgas, Varna, Lom, and Ruse."},"reasoning":"The state port infrastructure company has a division in Ruse and publishes the navigational situation on the Danube. Inferred: port dues and traffic at Ruse and Lom fall when ships wait for water; no figure is shown.","series_keys":["ruse-level-cm","ruse-level-daily-mean-2025-cm","maize-ruse-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"expana","name":"Expana","country":"GB","sector":"NACE M73.20 Market research and public opinion polling","website":"https://www.mintecglobal.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/drought-pushes-corn-harvests-in-central-and-eastern-europe-to-multi-year-lows/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Lower domestic production is expected to increase the EU’s reliance on external supplies. Expana analysts forecast that EU corn imports could rise by 8–9% in the 2026/27 season."},"reasoning":"UkrAgroConsult reports Expana's forecast of higher EU maize imports after the drought in Hungary and Romania. A price-data company sells the reading of this shock; its exposure is commercial and inferred. The website is that of Mintec, now part of Expana.","series_keys":["hu-maize-imports-world-t","maize-hu-great-plain-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"euronext","name":"Euronext N.V.","country":"NL","sector":"NACE K66.11 Administration of financial markets","website":"https://www.euronext.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://commodity-board.com/corn-market-steadies-as-ukraine-harvest-accelerates-and-spain-s-deficit-deepens","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Corn futures on Euronext and CBOT are broadly steady, and basis levels in Ukraine have softened, but Spain’s higher feed grain deficit and logistics/weather risks in Ukraine keep downside limited for nearby positions."},"reasoning":"The commentary (9 October 2026) places Euronext maize futures as the European reference price against which logistics risk is read. Inferred: a widening Constanța–upriver gap is a basis risk that hedgers on Euronext carry; Danube water is not named in the quote.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"cesfac","name":"Confederación Española de Fabricantes de Alimentos Compuestos para Animales (CESFAC)","country":"ES","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://cesfac.es/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://cesfac.es/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Somos una organización profesional sin ánimo de lucro que integra y representa los intereses de los fabricantes asociados y del sector de la alimentación animal en general, ante las administraciones públicas y ante terceros."},"reasoning":"Spanish-language quote: CESFAC represents Spain's compound feed makers. Comext (reporter ES, partner RO, since July 2025, read 1 November 2026) shows Spain buying Romanian maize in two months only (54,684 t in November 2025, 48,190 t in March 2026) against 107,414-663,395 t a month from the US and up to 442,735 t from Ukraine, so the Danube corridor is marginal to Spanish mills: their exposure is to the Black Sea FOB level that Turkish demand sets (Platts, September 2026), not to the river, hence ADJACENT.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"assalzoo","name":"Assalzoo – Associazione Nazionale tra i Produttori di Alimenti Zootecnici","country":"IT","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.assalzoo.it/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.assalzoo.it/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Vi aderiscono oltre 100 aziende, che rappresentano circa il 75% della produzione e commercializzazione industriale degli alimenti per animali in Italia."},"reasoning":"Italian-language quote: Assalzoo's members make about 75% of Italy's industrial feed. Comext (reporter IT, partner RO, since July 2025, read 1 November 2026) shows Italy buying 3,578-19,429 t a month of Romanian maize against 103,960-448,286 t from Ukraine, so Romanian maize is a marginal origin: Italian mills are exposed to the Black Sea FOB level, not to the Danube corridor, hence ADJACENT; Platts notes that some Serbian and Bulgarian volumes may move to Italy and Greece.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t"]}]},{"slug":"us-grains-council","name":"U.S. Grains Council","country":"US","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://grains.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"danube-record-low-maize-corridor-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://grains.org/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"U.S. CORN EXPORTS TOTALED 72.5 MILLION METRIC TONS IN 2024/2025."},"reasoning":"The Council promotes US maize exports, 72.5 Mt in 2024/25. Inferred: when Danube maize cannot reach Constanța, Spanish and other Mediterranean buyers can turn to US cargoes, as the October 2026 commentary on Spain's imports suggests; US gains from this shock are not measured.","series_keys":["maize-constanta-fob-eur-t"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"With the Danube at Ruse more than a metre under gauge zero as Romania's maize harvest reaches the river, who absorbs the 40 to 59 EUR per tonne now standing between Constanta FOB and the Muntenia and Oltenia silo prices, the inland seller, the barge line or the Turkish feed buyer that Constanta's Handysize cargoes mostly serve, and does a Hungarian processor that expects domestic maize to run out by February book rail imports from Slovakia and Romania now or wait for the water and for the ban on Ukrainian maize to be lifted?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Danube level at Ruse, 21 October 2026, record low","value":-145,"unit":"cm relative to gauge zero","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.bta.bg/en/news/balkans/1229351-danube-at-critical-low-in-ruse-as-officials-push-for-navigation-improvements","source_date":"2026-10-21","quote":"water levels in Ruse have fallen to 145 cm below the reference zero level","note":"BTA dispatch from Ruse, 21 October 2026, quoting Deputy Transport Minister Anna Natova at the conference for the 70th anniversary of the EAEMDR. A press figure, not a series value: the EAEMDR eight-day table (series ruse-level-cm) starts on 25 October at -133 cm. Gauge zero at Ruse is 11.80 m Baltic-Kronstadt."},{"id":"K2","name":"Margin of the 2026 record under the previous record of 2003","value":72,"unit":"cm","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.bta.bg/en/news/balkans/1229351-danube-at-critical-low-in-ruse-as-officials-push-for-navigation-improvements","source_date":"2026-10-21","quote":"72 cm lower than the previous record set in 2003","note":"Same dispatch. It implies a 2003 record of -73 cm, which the EAEMDR table of average daily water levels at Ruse for 1941-2019 (original deposited with the collection, parsed by the reviewer) confirms: -73 cm on 8 September 2003, the lowest daily mean of the 79 years, next -55 (1992), -52 (1990), -43 (2011 and 2019). The 2025 daily-mean minimum of -59 cm (F4) was itself below every year of 1941-2019 except 2003; the 2024 minimum was -18 cm (F9)."}],"constants_total":50,"constraints_total":11,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"Danube level at Ruse","to":"fairway depth at the critical sections and loaded draught below Ruse","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L2","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"loaded draught","to":"tonnes per barge and freight per tonne to Constanta","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L3","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"freight per tonne to Constanta","to":"gap between Constanta FOB and the inland silo prices","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L4","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"FOB minus silo gap","to":"the inland seller's realised price and the split between farmer, trader and barge line","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L5","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Constanta FOB at 244 EUR/t and the 2 Mt exportable surplus","to":"origin choice of Turkish importers, the main destination of Constanta's Handysize cargoes","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L6","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Hungary's 2026/27 maize deficit","to":"import volumes and routes: barge upriver against rail and truck from Slovakia and Romania","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"ban on Ukrainian maize (Decree 91/2026)","to":"Hungary's import mix and farm-gate premium","status":"CONSISTENT"}],"alternatives_total":5,"conjectures_total":4,"trajectories_total":1,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-01","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-01","constants":50,"constraints":11,"links":7,"untested":3,"contradicted":0,"alternatives":5,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. 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