The Premium library: all published packs, old and new, while your official plan is valid. Downloaded files remain yours.Premium, 49 USD / month →

SIGNAL · Storm · 2026-09-21

Typhoon Dujuan, Yokohama rainfall and port calls, September 2026

The Japan Meteorological Agency station at Yokohama recorded 117.0 mm of rain on 20 September 2026 and 223.0 mm on 21 September, with a peak gust of 21.1 m/s, the highest daily values of July–October. IMF PortWatch counted 3 port calls at Yokohama on 20 September and 9 on 21 September, against an average of 36 per day over 1–18 September, followed by 61 calls on 24 September and 115,333 tons of container exports on 22 September, the highest day since July.

Geography: Japan / Yokohama, Kanagawa (JMA Yokohama station, Port of Yokohama) / Chiba Prefecture. Trigger: source. Edition: Typhoon Dujuan shut Yokohama for 45 hours, the backlog sailed within four days, and the September customs flash still rose.. Dossier: rework on 2026-10-24.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: Yokohama-Kawasaki International Port Corporation — Facilities (lessees and vessel operators by terminal) (Honmoku, Minami-Honmoku, Daikoku and Kawasaki terminal tables; source of terminal lessees and about 40 carriers screened.); Yokohama Port Corporation — Daikoku Pier facilities (Lessees of the Daikoku automobile (C-1 to C-4), liner (L-1 to L-8) and container (T-9) berths; 18 lessee organisations screened.); City of Yokohama Port and Harbor Bureau — Port Facts and Figures, June 2026 (Management entities (bureau, YKIP, YPC), top export commodities (finished automobiles 11.3 Mt of 30.8 Mt in 2025) and top export partners (China, Mexico, Australia, USA, UAE).); Kuehne+Nagel — Port operational updates, 23-29 September 2026 (States the 45-hour closure, ~90% yard density and 1.5-2 day waits; also Busan congestion the same week.); City of Yokohama — Daikoku and Honmoku pier outlines (Berth usage and operators of the car-handling and container berths.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-12-10. If no typhoon reaches Tokyo Bay between 1 and 30 November 2026, no UTC day at Yokohama other than the holidays of 3 and 23 November prints fewer than 15 port calls, and the two holidays, tested apart, also stay at or above 15; a day below 15 without a storm would mean low days of September's size need no closure to occur. Indicators: Port calls at Yokohama, UTC days of November 2026 other than 3 and 23 November (IMF PortWatch); Port calls at Yokohama on the holidays of 3 and 23 November 2026, tested apart (IMF PortWatch); Typhoon reaching Tokyo Bay in November 2026 (JMA typhoon information).

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-12-15. Yokohama's November 2026 container export tonnage reaches at least 90 percent of October 2026's, even if November has a UTC day below 15 port calls: a closure of two days shifts tonnage within the month, as September's 1,127,052 t against August's 1,122,720 t showed. A lower ratio after such a day would mean a closure loses cargo rather than delaying it. Indicators: Container export tonnage at Yokohama, November 2026 monthly sum divided by October 2026 monthly sum, at least 0.90 (IMF PortWatch); Port calls at Yokohama, any UTC day of November 2026 below 15 (IMF PortWatch).

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2026-11-15. If September 2026 scales like the eight earlier months of 2026, HS 87 exports cleared at Yokohama customs in September land between 200 and 225 billion yen when the by-customs table is released, around the 208.0 to 221.2 billion implied by the 173.1 billion yen flash value; a value below 200 billion would point to the parts and motorcycle lines, not to the closure, which a monthly value cannot resolve. Indicators: HS 87 export value at Yokohama customs, September 2026, lower bound in thousand yen (MoF Trade Statistics); HS 87 export value at Yokohama customs, September 2026, upper bound in thousand yen (MoF Trade Statistics).

Free downloads carry the last twelve points of each redistributable series. The full series open to a member key on the same URLs (Authorization: Bearer or ?key=), while the official Premium right is valid.

Sources and reuse

International Monetary Fund — PortWatch — IMF Copyright and Usage terms (referenced by the Daily_Chokepoints_Data item licence): "Distributed or reproduced Data must appear accurately with attribution to the IMF as the source"; commercial reuse of IMF Data requires a written permission request to the IMF. Citable with attribution, not exportable. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

Japan Meteorological Agency — Public Data License (Version 1.0), compatible with CC BY 4.0, commercial use permitted. JMA terms: "Information made available on the Japan Meteorological Agency website ... may be used in accordance with the terms and conditions of use stipulated in Public Data License (Version 1.0)"; source citation required and edited content must say it was edited. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics (Japan Customs) — Public Data License (Version 1.0), compatible with CC BY 4.0, commercial use permitted. Japan Customs notice: "The copyright for information posted or published on this website belongs to the Ministry of Finance unless otherwise provided, and Public Data License (Version 1.0:PDL1.0) ... applies unless any rights are indicated." (policy, checked 2026-10-24)