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SIGNAL · Drought · 2026-09-30

India's weak 2026 monsoon, Asian rice export prices and India's rice shipments

India's June–September 2026 monsoon delivered 759.4 mm, 87% of the long period average (a 12.6% deficit), the fourth lowest since 2001 according to IMD; East and Northeast India received 74% of normal, the lowest since 1901, and June alone was 35% below normal. Export quotations rose over the same months: Thai 5% white rice went from US$403/t in April to US$482/t in September 2026 and Vietnamese 5% from US$352.9/t to US$418.5/t. India kept shipping: 15.38 Mt of rice (HS 1006) left in January–August 2026 against 14.97 Mt a year earlier, although July (1.52 Mt) and August (1.60 Mt) were below the 1.88–2.37 Mt monthly pace of January–June.

Geography: India, Gangetic rice belt / West Bengal, India / Bihar, India / Thailand (Bangkok export quotation) / Viet Nam (export quotation) / Benin (largest West African buyer of Indian rice in the series) / Côte d'Ivoire. Trigger: source. Edition: India's monsoon fell short and Asian rice quotes rose, but Indian rice shipments did not fall.. Dossier: accepted on 2026-10-24.

Series

Organisations

Universe drawn from: Vietnam Food Association (VFA) — member list (131 members (107 full, 24 associate) screened; Vinafood II, Loc Troi Group, Vinh Phat Wilmar and Olam Global Agri Viet Nam are on it.); Thai Rice Exporters Association — list of members (Alphabetical member pages (site served over http); used for company names only, contact columns ignored. Asia Golden Rice and Capital Rice screened from it.); All India Rice Exporters' Association (AIREA) — Governing Body FY 2025-26 (49 member companies; company names only (KRBL, LT Foods, Kohinoor Foods, AWL Agri Business, Sarveshwar Foods and others). Person columns not used.); BigMint weekly Indian rice vessel line-ups, January-July 2026 (Four reports (5 Jan, 28 Mar, 22 Jun, 7 Jul 2026) naming shippers, loading ports and West African destinations; trade press, not an official register.); Indian Rice Exporters' Federation (IREF) — BIRC 2026 registrations (Buyer registrations by country (Benin 179, Nigeria 177). The IREF site itself (iref.org.in) publishes no member list.); DGCI&S Tradestat, HS 1006 exports by country (2025-01 to 2026-08) (Destination table used for the West Africa series; it gives countries, not firms.); IMD, Salient features of the 2026 southwest monsoon (30 Sep 2026) (Regional departures (East and Northeast 74%, South Peninsula 76% of LPA) used to judge which millers are near the deficit.). Each organisation below carries its own verbatim evidence.

Hypotheses

OPEN · confidence medium · horizon 2027-02-28. If no DGFT measure on non-basmati rice is notified before 31 December 2026, India's HS 1006 exports for December 2026, released by DGCI&S around late February 2027, are at or above 1,202,588 tonnes, the monthly flow a stop on non-basmati white rice would leave on the July 2026 level. Indicators: India HS 1006 rice exports, December 2026 (DGCI&S Tradestat); DGFT notifications amending Chapter 10 export policy.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-02-10. If India keeps non-basmati rice open, the World Bank Thai 5% monthly quote stays between 418.5 and 586.3 dollars a tonne in November 2026 and below 553.28 in December 2026 and January 2027; a December or January quote at or above 553.28, 12% over the 21 October weekly quote of 494, would match the band of an Indian restriction (553.28 to 612.56). Indicators: Thai 5% white rice, monthly, World Bank Pink Sheet: November 2026 floor; Thai 5% white rice, monthly, World Bank Pink Sheet: November 2026 ceiling; Thai 5% white rice, monthly, World Bank Pink Sheet: December 2026 and January 2027, restriction band floor.

OPEN · confidence low · horizon 2027-02-28. If India's total rice exports stay at or above 1,202,588 tonnes a month, its shipments to Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, Togo, Ghana and Nigeria stay at or above 271,944 tonnes, the July 2026 low, in each of October, November and December 2026, because Indian broken and parboiled are the grades that land under Dakar's importer ceiling; a month below that floor with Indian totals above the line would point to importer-side rules rather than Indian supply. Indicators: India HS 1006 exports to six West African importers, monthly (DGCI&S Tradestat, country-wise); India HS 1006 rice exports, monthly (DGCI&S Tradestat).

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Sources and reuse

Climate Hazards Center, UC Santa Barbara — CHIRPS — CHIRPS page: "CHIRPS data is in the public domain as registered with Creative Commons." The same page states that all copyright and related or neighboring rights to CHIRPS have been waived (CC0-style waiver), published from the United States. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences — No open licence found. The site Disclaimer only says the website "is intended for information to the general public based on the real time data" and excludes liability; no copyright, terms-of-use or reuse page exists on mausam.imd.gov.in (copyright.php, copyrightPolicy.php, websitePolicy.php return 404; the sitemap lists none). Figures citable with attribution to IMD, not redistributed. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), Kolkata — via Department of Commerce Tradestat — DGCI&S National Metadata Structure, 3.1: "The copyright of trade data is reserved by DGCIS Kolkata. No part of the data received by users except small portions for other than commercial purposes with appropriate acknowledgement to DGCIS, shall be reproduced or re-disseminated, without obtaining prior permission from Director General DGCIS Kolkata." Copyright Policy page: contents "may not be reproduced partially or fully, without due permission from DGCI&S". Citable, not exportable. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)

World Bank — Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet) — Terms of Use for Datasets, linked from the Commodity Markets page under 'Using this Data': "Unless specifically labeled otherwise, these Datasets are provided to you under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), with the additional terms below." The summary terms add that some third-party indicators may carry their own conditions in their metadata; the Pink Sheet cocoa column cites ICCO and Bloomberg as underlying sources without a separate restriction. (policy, checked 2026-10-24)