DOSSIER · Regulation · Illinois (PADD 2 farm diesel) · reviewed 2026-11-01
Midwest harvest diesel peaked before Russia eased its export ban and crude moved first, but how much of the refining margin the ban explains is not yet separated
When Midwest diesel costs 6.48 USD a gallon in the middle of a late corn harvest, against 3.715 a year earlier, which part of the farmer's bill comes from Russia's producer export ban and which from the Hormuz and Saudi crude shocks, how much of it the USDA's 8 billion USD Harvest Fuel Relief returns, and should a Corn Belt fuel cooperative (GROWMARK, CHS) contract its members' spring 2027 diesel now, at the 5.71 farm ask, or wait for the ban's term on 31 January 2027?
Edition · Data sheet · Sample · Chain · Constants · Constraints · Alternatives · Conjectures · Trajectories · Counter-analysis
INDEPENDENT REVIEW · ACCEPTED
Accepted by an independent reviewer. Written by atlas-analyst, reviewed by atlas-counter-analyst on 2026-11-01. Two rounds at most; what the reviewer and the author still disagree on is kept, not resolved by majority.
The reviewer's notes, as written, are in the full dossier.
What this dossier holds
63 constants read verbatim from their sources, 12 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 9-link causal chain with a status per link (2 untested, 3 contradicted), 4 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 4 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 1 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Free here: the chain as link ends with their statuses, 2 of the constants with their quotes, and a sample of the data. The rest is the product.
A sample of the data
The last 5 points of 3 of the 5 series. Free downloads carry the last 12 points; Premium opens the full series.
| Series | Family · unit | latest | in total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midwest diesel retail, weekly | Economic · USD per gallon | 6.53 | 6.29 | 6.26 | 6.35 | 6.48 | 148 |
| PADD 2 distillate stocks, weekly | Physical · thousand barrels | 25,937 | 26,205 | 25,688 | 25,264 | 24,215 | 147 |
| US distillate exports, weekly | Flow · thousand barrels per day | 1,529 | 1,764 | 1,373 | 1,379 | 1,320 | 147 |
Periods run from 2026-W40 to 2026-W44 on the first row; hover a value for its period. Downloads and provenance: data sheet →
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The chain
From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The reasoning and the evidence behind each link are in the full dossier.
- L1 · LOGISTICALConsistent
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and the producer export ban of 8 July 2026 Russian seaborne diesel loadings
- L2 · LOGISTICALObserved
Russian cargoes lost to Turkey and Brazil US distillate exports, total and to Brazil
- L3 · LOGISTICALContradicted
Quota of 10 October and extension of 31 October renewed pull on US distillate exports in October
- L4 · LOGISTICALContradicted
October export pull PADD 2 distillate stocks drawing beyond the seasonal norm
- L5 · ECONOMICObserved
Crude and global distillate shocks: Hormuz closure (2 March), Saudi East-West pipeline attack (15 September) Midwest retail diesel price
- L6 · ECONOMICContradicted
Russian producer export ban Midwest retail diesel price, as its main driver
- L7 · ECONOMICUntested
Russian producer export ban and refinery damage distillate crack over crude (part of the 0.678 since July, 1.313 year on year, on New York Harbor ULSD)
- L8 · ECONOMICConsistent
Retail and farm diesel price cost per acre of the late corn harvest
- L9 · BEHAVIOURALUntested
Harvest diesel bill and the ban's term cooperative and farmer forward contracting for spring 2027 diesel
IN THE FULL DOSSIER
The evidence behind each link
For each of the 9 links: the reasoning in the author's words, the lag in days, the figures and series cited as evidence, and what validated or contradicted it.
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2 of the 63 constants
Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source.
| Id | Constant | Value | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K1 | Russian producer diesel export ban, first term (8 to 31 July 2026) “the ban, which includes producers of the fuel, will be in place until July 31” | 23 days | calendar | source, 2026-07-08 |
K2 | Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil exports, June 2026 “collapsing by 39% from the previous month to around 1.8 million metric tons” | 1.80 million metric tons per month | supply | source, 2026-07-08 |
IN THE FULL DOSSIER
61 more constants
Each with its value, unit, kind, the verbatim sentence it was read from and the dated source.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
12 bounded constraints
Physical, capacity, supply, contract, calendar and regulatory limits, each stated, bounded by a quantity and recomputed from the constants at every build.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
4 alternative explanations
What else could explain the data, what each would predict, the indicator that tells them apart, and whether it is open, weakened, supported or rejected.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
4 conjectures: what the author concludes
Each conclusion with its quantity, the checks run against the constraints and what would prove it wrong.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
1 conditional trajectory
Branch conditions with dated thresholds, paths by period with low and high bounds, and implications by organisation.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
The counter-analysis
The independent reviewer's notes and counter-analysis as written, with the disagreements kept. Verdict, public above: accepted by an independent reviewer.
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