{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","title":"Russian diesel export ban and the US Midwest harvest diesel bill, autumn 2026","date":"2026-10-10","mechanism":"REGULATION","geography":[{"code":"US-IL","name":"Illinois (PADD 2 farm diesel)","latitude":40,"longitude":-89.2},{"code":"US-IA","name":"Iowa (PADD 2 farm diesel)","latitude":42,"longitude":-93.5},{"code":"RU","name":"Russia (diesel export ban)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"BR","name":"Brazil (diesel importer)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"NL","name":"Netherlands (ARA diesel hub)","latitude":null,"longitude":null}],"source_url":"https://globaltradealert.org/state-act/101194-russia-government-partially-lifts-diesel-export-ban-through-500-000-tonne-export-quota","summary":"Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban on 10 October 2026 through a 500,000-tonne quota, then on 31 October extended the producer ban to 31 January 2027 with exemptions. During the US harvest, Midwest No 2 diesel retail stood at 6.480 USD/gal on 26 October 2026 against 3.715 a year earlier, while PADD 2 distillate stocks fell from 26.2 to 24.2 million barrels between 2 and 23 October.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","key":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-russia-t","family":"FLOW","variable":"Monthly Brazilian imports of diesel oil (NCM 27101921, 'Gasóleo (óleo diesel)') with country of origin Russia (Comex Stat CO_PAIS 676), net weight KG_LIQUIDO summed over all states, ports and transport modes, divided by 1000","unit":"tonnes (net weight)","geography":"BR","publisher":"mdic-comexstat","source_url":"https://balanca.mdic.gov.br/balanca/bd/comexstat-bd/ncm/IMP_2026.csv","source_sha256":"4913ac98024dbf44b667a8e3e6cda487efb9c1a5dbbf31fb07f45cfd182ffa04","collected_at":"2026-11-01T16:37:01+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","key":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-us-t","family":"FLOW","variable":"Monthly Brazilian imports of diesel oil (NCM 27101921, 'Gasóleo (óleo diesel)') with country of origin United States (Comex Stat CO_PAIS 249), net weight KG_LIQUIDO summed over all states, ports and transport modes, divided by 1000","unit":"tonnes (net weight)","geography":"BR","publisher":"mdic-comexstat","source_url":"https://balanca.mdic.gov.br/balanca/bd/comexstat-bd/ncm/IMP_2026.csv","source_sha256":"4913ac98024dbf44b667a8e3e6cda487efb9c1a5dbbf31fb07f45cfd182ffa04","collected_at":"2026-11-01T16:37:01+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":148,"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","key":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Weekly Midwest No 2 diesel retail price including taxes, Monday survey (EIA EMD_EPD2D_PTE_R20_DPG)","unit":"USD per gallon","geography":"US","publisher":"eia","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_R20_DPGw.xls","source_sha256":"2106e5de258a33feb1164870d70dfc0f760efa521a32a81b291af1fe76b600c1","collected_at":"2026-11-01T14:43:26.500666+00:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W33","value":5.181},{"period":"2026-W34","value":5.435},{"period":"2026-W35","value":5.636},{"period":"2026-W36","value":5.571},{"period":"2026-W37","value":5.946},{"period":"2026-W38","value":6.25},{"period":"2026-W39","value":6.68},{"period":"2026-W40","value":6.526},{"period":"2026-W41","value":6.286},{"period":"2026-W42","value":6.259},{"period":"2026-W43","value":6.352},{"period":"2026-W44","value":6.48}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":147,"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","key":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Weekly Midwest (PADD 2) ending stocks of distillate fuel oil, week ending Friday (EIA WDISTP21)","unit":"thousand barrels","geography":"US","publisher":"eia","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/WDISTP21w.xls","source_sha256":"7c73ed8f8f44bf88af48c1d381b2561aa064b546ff02c5221b30157691339499","collected_at":"2026-11-01T14:43:26.500666+00:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W32","value":28612},{"period":"2026-W33","value":28408},{"period":"2026-W34","value":28563},{"period":"2026-W35","value":28786},{"period":"2026-W36","value":28469},{"period":"2026-W37","value":28790},{"period":"2026-W38","value":27200},{"period":"2026-W39","value":25937},{"period":"2026-W40","value":26205},{"period":"2026-W41","value":25688},{"period":"2026-W42","value":25264},{"period":"2026-W43","value":24215}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":147,"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","key":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","family":"FLOW","variable":"Weekly U.S. exports of total distillate, week ending Friday (EIA WDIEXUS2, weekly estimate)","unit":"thousand barrels per day","geography":"US","publisher":"eia","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/WDIEXUS2w.xls","source_sha256":"1b7f8411857eb8598ce24e1119626a1902e06cab091f2c80a3938c48da52023a","collected_at":"2026-11-01T14:43:26.500666+00:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W32","value":1935},{"period":"2026-W33","value":1601},{"period":"2026-W34","value":1790},{"period":"2026-W35","value":1735},{"period":"2026-W36","value":1556},{"period":"2026-W37","value":1614},{"period":"2026-W38","value":1331},{"period":"2026-W39","value":1529},{"period":"2026-W40","value":1764},{"period":"2026-W41","value":1373},{"period":"2026-W42","value":1379},{"period":"2026-W43","value":1320}]}],"edition":{"title":"Midwest harvest diesel peaked before Russia eased its export ban and crude moved first, but how much of the refining margin the ban explains is not yet separated","lead":"Midwest diesel stood at 6.48 USD per gallon on 26 October 2026, against 3.715 a year earlier; its 2026 peak, 6.68 on 21 September, came before Russia eased its export ban on 10 October. Since the 6 July trough of 4.458, crude priced on WTI accounts for 0.849 of the 2.022 rise and the refining crack for 0.678; year on year the crack is the largest part, and the ban's share of it is not separated. Brazil's switch from Russian to US diesel coincided with the ban; Washington answered with 8 billion USD of farm relief and a temporary waiver for Russian diesel.","published_at":"2026-11-01","vectors":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","us-distillate-exports-kbd"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":6.48},{"id":"F2","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W44","value":3.715},{"id":"F3","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"max","period":null,"value":6.68},{"id":"F4","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W10","value":3.888},{"id":"F5","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W11","value":4.801},{"id":"F6","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W28","value":4.458},{"id":"F7","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W41","value":6.286},{"id":"F8","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":6.259},{"id":"F10","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":24215},{"id":"F11","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":25036},{"id":"F12","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W37","value":28790},{"id":"F13","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W37","value":30585},{"id":"F14","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"min","period":null,"value":23185},{"id":"F15","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W43","value":26423},{"id":"F16","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":1320},{"id":"F17","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":1507},{"id":"F18","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"max","period":null,"value":1935},{"id":"F19","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2025-W32","value":1441},{"id":"F20","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W20","value":5.815},{"id":"F21","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W21","value":23626},{"id":"F22","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W21","value":23383},{"id":"F23","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W41","value":1373},{"id":"F24","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":1379},{"id":"F25","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2025-W41","value":1166},{"id":"F26","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2025-W42","value":1072},{"id":"F27","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W01","value":29413},{"id":"F28","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W03","value":32158},{"id":"F29","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W52","value":27257},{"id":"F30","series":"padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W52","value":30149},{"id":"F31","series":"us-distillate-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W40","value":1764},{"id":"F32","series":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":6.352},{"id":"F33","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-russia-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-05","value":849774.692},{"id":"F34","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-russia-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":298956.969},{"id":"F35","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-russia-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":56110.357},{"id":"F36","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-russia-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":62328.158},{"id":"F37","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-us-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-03","value":8210.339},{"id":"F38","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-us-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":821319.079},{"id":"F39","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-us-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":793786.856},{"id":"F40","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-us-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":186764.539},{"id":"F41","series":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-russia-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-04","value":908710.683}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Midwest No 2 diesel retail price, weekly Monday survey (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_R20_DPG&f=W"},{"indicator":"New York Harbor ultra-low sulfur diesel spot, daily (EIA), against WTI and Brent: the distillate crack","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_Y35NY_DPGD.htm"},{"indicator":"US distillate exports by destination, monthly (EIA), Brazil row","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_a_EPD0_EEX_mbblpd_m.htm"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"midwest-diesel-holds-six-on-crude","signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","statement":"If Brent stays above 115 USD per barrel through November 2026, the Midwest retail diesel price reads 6.00 USD per gallon or more in the EIA survey of 21 December 2026, whether or not Russia ships its planned November volumes and the US waiver's tranches sail.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Brent spot price, daily (EIA RBRTE)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">","value":115}},{"name":"Midwest No 2 diesel retail price, weekly Monday survey (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_R20_DPG&f=W","series_key":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":">=","value":6}}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-21","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"midwest-diesel-eases-with-crude-before-ban-term","signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","statement":"If Brent falls back to the EIA's fourth-quarter assumption of 105 USD per barrel or lower, the Midwest retail diesel price prints below 5.50 USD per gallon in at least one Monday survey before 31 January 2027, while Russia's producer export ban is still in force.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Brent spot price, daily (EIA RBRTE)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<=","value":105}},{"name":"Midwest No 2 diesel retail price, weekly Monday survey (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_R20_DPG&f=W","series_key":"midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":"<","value":5.5}}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"brazil-keeps-us-diesel-through-january","signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","statement":"If Russian diesel exports recover toward the November plan of 2.15 million tonnes under the quota, the exemptions and the US waiver, Brazil still takes more diesel from the United States than from Russia in every month from October to December 2026, and EIA distillate exports to Brazil stay at or above 100 thousand barrels a day in each of those months.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"US distillate exports to Brazil, monthly (EIA exports by destination)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_a_EPD0_EEX_mbblpd_m.htm","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":100}},{"name":"Brazil diesel imports from the United States, monthly tonnes (Comex Stat, MDIC)","source_url":"https://balanca.mdic.gov.br/balanca/bd/comexstat-bd/ncm/IMP_2026.csv","series_key":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-us-t","threshold":null},{"name":"Brazil diesel imports from Russia, monthly tonnes (Comex Stat, MDIC)","source_url":"https://balanca.mdic.gov.br/balanca/bd/comexstat-bd/ncm/IMP_2026.csv","series_key":"brazil-diesel-imports-from-russia-t","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"valero-energy","name":"Valero Energy Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.valero.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://s23.q4cdn.com/587626645/files/doc_earnings/2026/q3/earnings-result/VLO-3Q26-Earnings-Release.pdf","date":"2026-10-22","quote":"The Refining segment reported operating income of $8.8 billion for the third quarter of 2026, compared to $1.6 billion for the third quarter of 2025."},"reasoning":"Valero's third-quarter 2026 release (22 October 2026) shows refining operating income 5.5 times the year-earlier quarter, a refining margin of 39.24 USD per barrel of throughput against 13.14, and distillate yields of 1,162 thousand barrels a day, in the quarter when the distillate crack widened (C10): the gain is evidenced for the quarter. Valero runs no PADD 2 refinery; its Gulf Coast plants sit on the export leg to Brazil, and the release does not split the margin by product or destination.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd","midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"marathon-petroleum","name":"Marathon Petroleum Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.marathonpetroleum.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.latintimes.com/us-diesel-ban-threat-hits-brazil-nine-days-before-its-most-pivotal-election-599594","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"shares of major U.S. refinery operators Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 fell"},"reasoning":"The quote shows Marathon's shares reacting to the threatened US diesel export restriction, which places it on the export leg; it does not evidence a gain. Marathon's third-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for 3 November 2026 (company notice of 17 September 2026), after this entry's date, so the margin effect of the wider distillate crack at its PADD 2 refineries (Robinson, Detroit, Catlettsburg, Canton in the EIA capacity table) is inferred from the sector-wide crack (C10) and from Valero's and Phillips 66's released quarters, not shown.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd","midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"phillips-66","name":"Phillips 66","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.phillips66.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001534701/000153470126000035/psx-2026930_ex991.htm","date":"2026-10-28","quote":"Refining utilization of 98% with record Central Corridor processed inputs of 848 MBD"},"reasoning":"Phillips 66's third-quarter 2026 release (8-K exhibit 99.1, 28 October 2026) reports record processed inputs in its Central Corridor region, which holds Wood River (WRB) and Ponca City, the Mid-Continent plants of this chain, a third-quarter record distillate yield of 41 percent, and margins 'primarily driven by an increase in market crack spreads'. The gain is evidenced for the quarter; the release does not split it by region or product.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd","midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"exxonmobil","name":"Exxon Mobil Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://energynewsbeat.co/diesel/exxonmobil-joliet-refinery-floods-and-stays-offline-as-midwest-diesel-hits-records/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Gasoline and diesel leave by pipeline to Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin."},"reasoning":"The page, about the Joliet refinery, shows that its diesel is piped into the PADD 2 states of this signal. The headline reports a flood outage, but the body fetched does not confirm its duration, so the effect on PADD 2 stocks is inferred.","series_keys":["padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"citgo-petroleum","name":"CITGO Petroleum Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.citgo.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.citgo.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The Lemont Refinery marks 100 years of fueling growth, powering industry and serving the Upper Midwest."},"reasoning":"The page shows CITGO's Lemont refinery serves the Upper Midwest, the PADD 2 market where stocks drew down during harvest. A gain from higher Midwest diesel prices is inferred from its location; no diesel volumes or margins are given.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"countrymark","name":"CountryMark Cooperative Holding Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.countrymark.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.countrymark.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"CountryMark finds and refines American oil, transforming it into the highest quality fuels and lubricants in the Midwest."},"reasoning":"The page shows a farmer-owned refiner (Mount Vernon, Indiana) selling fuels in the Midwest. It is inferred that it captures higher harvest diesel prices as a refiner while its farm owners pay them; the split between the two is not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"chs-inc","name":"CHS Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.chsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823277/000082327726000007/a1qfy26earningrelease.htm","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Strong diesel demand driven by heavy harvest activity, resulting in record sales volumes of Cenex® premium diesel."},"reasoning":"The release shows that harvest drives CHS's diesel sales, but it covers the quarter ended November 2025, not the 2026 shock. That CHS, which refines and distributes Cenex fuel to farmers, gains on margins in autumn 2026 while its farmer owners pay more is inferred.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"growmark","name":"GROWMARK, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.growmark.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.growmark.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"2 B+ gallons of gasoline, distillates, and propane marketed annually."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Bloomington, Illinois cooperative marketing distillates at scale. It is inferred that it buys PADD 2 diesel at the rack and resells to farms at harvest, so tight Midwest stocks raise its supply cost and working capital; no 2026 data is shown.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"flint-hills-resources","name":"Flint Hills Resources, LP","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.fhr.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fhr.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"We are a refining company that produces and delivers reliable and affordable fuels, chemicals and other petroleum products people depend on every day"},"reasoning":"The page shows a refiner; the EIA capacity table places its refinery at Saint Paul, Minnesota, in PADD 2. A gain from high Midwest diesel prices is inferred; the page states no diesel volumes or markets.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"american-farm-bureau-federation","name":"American Farm Bureau Federation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.fb.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fb.org/news-release/farmers-call-on-president-trump-to-provide-diesel-price-relief","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Higher diesel expenses are hitting farmers at one of the most fuel-intensive times of the year"},"reasoning":"The 1 October 2026 release shows the federation lobbying for diesel tax relief because of harvest fuel costs, the end of this chain. It does not attribute prices to the Russian ban; the cause is left open.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"stonex","name":"StoneX Group Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 523160 Commodity contracts intermediation","website":"https://www.stonex.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/diesel-inventories-sit-low-on-farms-as-refineries-enter-maintenance/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The United States is a net exporter of diesel, and Gulf Coast export volumes have been running at record highs"},"reasoning":"StoneX's 19 August 2026 note links record Gulf Coast diesel exports to low farm inventories before harvest, which is the export-to-PADD 2 link of the chain. As a broker it earns on hedging this risk; that revenue effect is inferred.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl","midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"american-petroleum-institute","name":"American Petroleum Institute","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.api.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.latintimes.com/us-diesel-ban-threat-hits-brazil-nine-days-before-its-most-pivotal-election-599594","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The American Petroleum Institute framed any restriction as self-defeating, stating in a formal release"},"reasoning":"The page reports the institute opposing the September 2026 proposal to restrict US diesel exports, a policy response to the same tight market. It shows advocacy, not economic exposure.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"union-pacific","name":"Union Pacific Railroad","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.up.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2026/08/17/us-railroad-union-pacific-turned-charges-meant-to-cover-fuel-cost-spike-from-iran-war-into-profit/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Union Pacific collected US$91.1 million more in fuel surcharges than it paid for fuel during the second quarter"},"reasoning":"The page shows that Union Pacific's fuel surcharge recovered more than its diesel bill in Q2 2026, so high diesel prices passed to grain and freight shippers. The period is before the October ban decisions and the driver cited is the Iran war, so the link to the Russian leg is inferred.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"bnsf-railway","name":"BNSF Railway","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.bnsf.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2026/08/17/us-railroad-union-pacific-turned-charges-meant-to-cover-fuel-cost-spike-from-iran-war-into-profit/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"BNSF's surcharges were US$658.1 million less than its fuel costs during the first six months of this year"},"reasoning":"The page shows BNSF under-recovering its diesel costs in the first half of 2026, so diesel prices hit its margin. Whether that persisted through the autumn harvest is not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"ingram-barge-company","name":"Ingram Barge Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://ingrambarge.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ingrambarge.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Ingram transports dry and liquid commodities on over 4,500 miles of America’s inland waterways."},"reasoning":"The page shows a barge line moving dry (grain) and liquid cargo on the inland rivers. It is inferred that towboat diesel is a large cost and that liquid barges can carry product into PADD 2; neither fuel cost nor product volumes are shown.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"american-commercial-barge-line","name":"American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://www.bargeacbl.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bargeacbl.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Crude, refined products, petrochemicals, and ethanol are the fuels at the core of American industry."},"reasoning":"The page shows ACBL carries refined products as well as Midwest grain. It is inferred that it both pays more for towboat diesel and may gain product moves into the Midwest; the net is not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"american-trucking-associations","name":"American Trucking Associations","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.trucking.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.truckinginfo.com/news/truckings-diesel-squeeze-isnt-letting-up","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"doubts about additional Russian supply and limits on dyed-diesel tax relief mean trucking fleets still face expensive fuel."},"reasoning":"The 20 October 2026 article ties trucking fuel costs to doubts about Russian supply; it quotes the association's economist on low distillate stocks, but the quote above names fleets, not the association. That its members, including grain haulers, carry the cost is inferred.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal","padd2-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"petrobras","name":"Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras)","country":"BR","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://petrobras.com.br/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.latintimes.com/us-diesel-ban-threat-hits-brazil-nine-days-before-its-most-pivotal-election-599594","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Petrobras has since set a target of full self-sufficiency by 2031, but the current import gap"},"reasoning":"The page places Petrobras on the Brazilian side of the chain: the import gap it cannot yet fill is what pulls US Gulf Coast diesel when Russian cargoes fall. As domestic refiner it competes with imports; its pricing response is not shown.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"abicom","name":"Associação Brasileira dos Importadores de Combustíveis (Abicom)","country":"BR","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://abicom.com.br/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-russian-diesel-licence-2026/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Abicom figures, reported by both O Globo and that site, put the US share of Brazil's diesel imports at about 80% in September"},"reasoning":"The page shows Brazil's fuel importers' association reporting that US diesel replaced Russian diesel in September 2026, the substitution at the centre of the chain. That members' import costs rose with the switch is inferred.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"vibra-energia","name":"Vibra Energia S.A.","country":"BR","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.vibraenergia.com.br/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.vibraenergia.com.br/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Quer trabalhar numa empresa que tem como visão ser a maior e mais rentável distribuidora de combustíveis e energia para a mobilidade da sociedade?"},"reasoning":"The page shows Vibra is a Brazilian fuel distributor. That it sources part of its diesel from imports, and so pays for the switch from Russian to US cargoes, is inferred; its 2026 import origin is not shown.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"tupras","name":"Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.Ş. (Tüpraş)","country":"TR","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.tupras.com.tr/en","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/us-sanctions-relief-clears-way-for-russian-diesel-return-to-key-buyers","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Turkish fuel suppliers have reduced purchases of diesel from domestic refineries in anticipation of receiving Russian exports"},"reasoning":"The 20 October 2026 article (Reuters via Baird Maritime) reports Turkish suppliers cutting purchases from domestic refineries as Russian diesel returns under the US sanctions relief; the same article identifies Tüpraş and SOCAR as the operators of Turkey's major refineries. The loss of domestic sales is reported for the refineries collectively, so Tüpraş's own volume is not shown.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"socar","name":"State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR)","country":"AZ","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://socar.az/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/us-sanctions-relief-clears-way-for-russian-diesel-return-to-key-buyers","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Turkish fuel suppliers have reduced purchases of diesel from domestic refineries in anticipation of receiving Russian exports"},"reasoning":"The article reports Turkish suppliers buying less from domestic refineries as Russian cargoes return, and names SOCAR with Tüpraş as the operators of Turkey's major refineries. SOCAR's STAR refinery at Aliağa is one of the refineries the sentence covers; its own volumes are not given, so the exposure is deduced from the collective statement.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"gazprom-neft","name":"PJSC Gazprom Neft","country":"RU","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.gazprom-neft.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1148964","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"the 7 July strike on Gazprom Neft's 450 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) Omsk refinery"},"reasoning":"The 22 September 2026 article cites a drone strike on Gazprom Neft's Omsk refinery as part of the outage behind Russia's diesel export ban, the first link of the chain. The strike's effect on its diesel exports is not quantified.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"rosneft","name":"PJSC Rosneft Oil Company","country":"RU","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.rosneft.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/crude-oil/as-ukraine-cripples-russian-refining-global-diesel-markets-pay-the-price.html","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"such as Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil to divert more gasoline"},"reasoning":"The page names Rosneft among the Russian integrated producers, in a passage on gasoline exchange quotas, not diesel. That the producer diesel ban, extended to January 2027, limits Rosneft's diesel exports is inferred from its status as a producer.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"lukoil","name":"PJSC Lukoil","country":"RU","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://lukoil.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/crude-oil/as-ukraine-cripples-russian-refining-global-diesel-markets-pay-the-price.html","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"such as Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil to divert more gasoline"},"reasoning":"The page names Lukoil among Russian integrated producers, in a passage on gasoline exchange quotas. Its exposure to the producer diesel ban and to refinery strikes is inferred; this page does not tie Lukoil to diesel.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"sovcomflot","name":"PAO Sovcomflot","country":"RU","sector":"NAICS 483111 Deep sea freight transportation","website":"https://www.scf-group.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gcaptain.com/russia-extends-ban-on-most-diesel-exports-through-january/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Russian-flagged tanker Bratsk, which is under U.S. sanctions for links to the Russian state-owned shipping company Sovcomflot"},"reasoning":"The photo caption on the 31 October 2026 ban-extension story names Sovcomflot through a sanctioned tanker. That the November export exemptions would raise demand for Russian product tankers is inferred; the article names no Sovcomflot diesel cargo.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"reliance-industries","name":"Reliance Industries Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.ril.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.businesstoday.in/amp/latest/economy/story/india-fuel-exports-10-month-high-refiners-russian-oil-middle-east-squeeze-542917-2026-07-15","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Two of the country's largest refineries--run by Nayara Energy Ltd. and Reliance Industries Ltd.--restarted"},"reasoning":"The 15 July 2026 article shows Reliance's refinery restarting as Indian fuel exports neared a 10-month high. It is inferred that Indian diesel competes with US Gulf Coast diesel for the cargoes Russia no longer supplies; the article does not name diesel destinations.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"nayara-energy","name":"Nayara Energy Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries","website":"https://www.nayaraenergy.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.businesstoday.in/amp/latest/economy/story/india-fuel-exports-10-month-high-refiners-russian-oil-middle-east-squeeze-542917-2026-07-15","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Two of the country's largest refineries--run by Nayara Energy Ltd. and Reliance Industries Ltd.--restarted"},"reasoning":"The article names Nayara as one of the two refiners behind India's rising fuel exports in July 2026. Its role as a competing diesel exporter is inferred; volumes and destinations are not shown.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"kpler","name":"Kpler","country":"BE","sector":"NAICS 519290 Web search portals and all other information services","website":"https://www.kpler.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.kpler.com/blog/russias-diesel-export-ban-adds-fresh-fuel-to-rising-prices","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Brazil is likely to pull more diesel from the US, repeating the substitution pattern seen during the 2023 ban."},"reasoning":"Kpler's own 9 July 2026 analysis states the Russia-to-US substitution in Brazil that this signal tracks. It is a data vendor whose demand rises with the volatility; that commercial effect is inferred.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"vortexa","name":"Vortexa Ltd","country":"GB","sector":"NAICS 519290 Web search portals and all other information services","website":"https://www.vortexa.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://engine.online/news/ara-fuel-oil-stocks-climb-6-pc-as-october-kicks-off-8282","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The region has imported 233,000 b/d of gasoil in October so far, up from 197,000 b/d in September, according to Vortexa data."},"reasoning":"The 9 October 2026 report cites Vortexa for rising gasoil imports into the ARA hub, the European side of the same distillate market. Vortexa is a data provider; its role is observational, and the share of US cargoes is not given.","series_keys":["us-distillate-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"usda-farm-service-agency","name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Farm Service Agency","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 926140 Regulation of agricultural marketing and commodities","website":"https://www.fsa.usda.gov/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-harvest-diesel-squeeze-russia-export-ban-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAOC/bulletins/42fb90a","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The $8 billion in payments provided through the Harvest Fuel Relief program are authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Charter Act and will be administered by the Farm Service Agency (FSA)."},"reasoning":"The USDA's own release of 19 October 2026 (Office of Communications bulletin on GovDelivery, sent 10/19/2026 09:20 PM EDT, read 1 November 2026; the usda.gov copy answered HTTP 403 to curl and WebFetch the same day) names the agency: the 8 billion USD of one-time payments are authorized under the CCC Charter Act and administered by the Farm Service Agency, computed by a uniform formula on modeled 2026 losses from FSA reported planted acres, Economic Research Service cost of production estimates and WASDE yields and prices, with 'Commodity-specific payment rates for Title I commodities will be released in November.' Reuters and AP via FOX 35 (20 October 2026) relayed the same announcement. It is the payer on this chain, not an exposed party: the transfer changes who bears the farmer's bill (C12) without moving the price.","series_keys":["midwest-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"When Midwest diesel costs 6.48 USD a gallon in the middle of a late corn harvest, against 3.715 a year earlier, which part of the farmer's bill comes from Russia's producer export ban and which from the Hormuz and Saudi crude shocks, how much of it the USDA's 8 billion USD Harvest Fuel Relief returns, and should a Corn Belt fuel cooperative (GROWMARK, CHS) contract its members' spring 2027 diesel now, at the 5.71 farm ask, or wait for the ban's term on 31 January 2027?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Russian producer diesel export ban, first term (8 to 31 July 2026)","value":23,"unit":"days","kind":"CALENDAR","source_url":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/07/08/russia-bans-diesel-exports-to-ensure-domestic-supply-after-targeted-ukrainian-drone-strikes","source_date":"2026-07-08","quote":"the ban, which includes producers of the fuel, will be in place until July 31","note":"Reuters, Moscow, 8 July 2026, relayed by Internazionale: 'Russia introduced a ban on diesel exports on Wednesday' after 'systematic Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries triggered shortages and price spikes in some regions'. Extended to 30 September, then to 31 October (Interfax, 30 September 2026), then to the end of January 2027 (K7). The ban on non-producers has run since 1 October 2025 (Global Trade Alert, K9 note). No decree number appears on any page read on 1 November 2026; the scout's 'decree 1252' is unverified."},{"id":"K2","name":"Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil exports, June 2026","value":1.8,"unit":"million metric tons per month","kind":"SUPPLY","source_url":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/07/08/russia-bans-diesel-exports-to-ensure-domestic-supply-after-targeted-ukrainian-drone-strikes","source_date":"2026-07-08","quote":"collapsing by 39% from the previous month to around 1.8 million metric tons","note":"Reuters calculation on LSEG and market-source data; the month before the producer ban, already cut by refinery strikes."}],"constants_total":63,"constraints_total":12,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and the producer export ban of 8 July 2026","to":"Russian seaborne diesel loadings","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L2","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Russian cargoes lost to Turkey and Brazil","to":"US distillate exports, total and to Brazil","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L3","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Quota of 10 October and extension of 31 October","to":"renewed pull on US distillate exports in October","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L4","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"October export pull","to":"PADD 2 distillate stocks drawing beyond the seasonal norm","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L5","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Crude and global distillate shocks: Hormuz closure (2 March), Saudi East-West pipeline attack (15 September)","to":"Midwest retail diesel price","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L6","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Russian producer export ban","to":"Midwest retail diesel price, as its main driver","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Russian producer export ban and refinery damage","to":"distillate crack over crude (part of the 0.678 since July, 1.313 year on year, on New York Harbor ULSD)","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L8","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Retail and farm diesel price","to":"cost per acre of the late corn harvest","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L9","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Harvest diesel bill and the ban's term","to":"cooperative and farmer forward contracting for spring 2027 diesel","status":"UNTESTED"}],"alternatives_total":4,"conjectures_total":4,"trajectories_total":1,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-01","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-01","constants":63,"constraints":12,"links":9,"untested":2,"contradicted":3,"alternatives":4,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. Premium emails send the latest analysis when you join and each new one after publication; their links last seven days and need a current subscription. Files you downloaded stay yours within each source licence; downloads and API access stop when the subscription ends"}}}