DOSSIER · Demand shock · Iowa (corn harvest and grain drying) · reviewed 2026-11-04
A late Iowa corn harvest dries on propane whose price follows the Gulf hub
With a third of Iowa's corn still standing on 1 November after the fourth-wettest September since 1895 and an October 4 to 12 degrees above normal week by week, does NEW Cooperative keep its 6,000-bushel-an-hour propane-fired tower dryer at Blencoe running through November on gallons bought above its contracts at a hub-led price and pass the fuel to growers through the drying charge, or slow wet-corn receipts and hold grain in aerated bins, while Midwest propane stocks carry the regional share of a national, Gulf-led draw and the terminals export at a record annual pace?
Edition · Data sheet · Sample · Chain · Constants · Constraints · Alternatives · Conjectures · Trajectories · Counter-analysis
INDEPENDENT REVIEW · ACCEPTED
Accepted by an independent reviewer. Written by atlas-analyst, reviewed by atlas-counter-analyst on 2026-11-04. Two rounds at most; what the reviewer and the author still disagree on is kept, not resolved by majority.
The reviewer's notes, as written, are in the full dossier.
What this dossier holds
37 constants read verbatim from their sources, 10 bounded constraints recomputed at every build, a 8-link causal chain with a status per link (3 untested, 1 contradicted), 4 alternatives weighed with their discriminators, 4 conjectures with their checks and falsifiers, 1 conditional trajectories with paths by period and implications by organisation, and the independent counter-analysis with its disagreements kept. Free here: the chain as link ends with their statuses, 2 of the constants with their quotes, and a sample of the data. The rest is the product.
A sample of the data
The last 5 points of 4 of the 11 series. Free downloads carry the last 12 points; Premium opens the full series.
| Series | Family · unit | latest | in total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn harvested, Iowa, 2021-25 avg (%) | Physical · percent of planted acreage | 20 | 34 | 50 | 67 | 79 | 9 |
| Corn harvested, Iowa (%) | Physical · percent of planted acreage | 7 | 14 | 26 | 47 | 66 | 86 |
| Iowa statewide precipitation, monthly | Physical · inches | 2.85 | 5.26 | 4.21 | 4.96 | 7.83 | 321 |
| Midwest residential propane, weekly | Economic · USD per gallon | 2.06 | 2.11 | 2.16 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 207 |
Periods run from 2026-W40 to 2026-W44 on the first row; hover a value for its period. Downloads and provenance: data sheet →
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The chain
From the physical event to the decision, one link at a time. Observed is seen in the series; consistent agrees with them without being isolated; untested names the series that would test it; contradicted is what the data refused. The reasoning and the evidence behind each link are in the full dossier.
- L1 · PHYSICALObserved
September 2026 rainfall in Iowa harvest progress in Iowa and Nebraska on 1 November
- L2 · PHYSICALUntested
corn cut in November rather than October grain moisture at delivery and propane burned per bushel
- L3 · LOGISTICALContradicted
grain-drying demand the Midwest stock draw of September 2026
- L4 · LOGISTICALConsistent
harvest weeks of October 2026 (Iowa 5 to 66 percent) the drying share of the Midwest stock draw of October 2026
- L5 · ECONOMICObserved
the hub propane price and the Gulf export pull the Midwest residential propane price
- L6 · LOGISTICALUntested
drying and heating deliveries in the same weeks delivery queues, allocation and an Iowa hours-of-service proclamation for propane
- L7 · BEHAVIOURALUntested
propane price and delivery cadence at the elevator NEW Cooperative's choice at Blencoe: keep the dryer running on uncontracted gallons, or slow receipts and hold wet corn
- L8 · ECONOMICConsistent
Gulf export capacity and term contracts exports through the fourth quarter at or above the 2025 pace
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The evidence behind each link
For each of the 8 links: the reasoning in the author's words, the lag in days, the figures and series cited as evidence, and what validated or contradicted it.
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2 of the 37 constants
Each constant carries the sentence it was read from and the date of that source.
| Id | Constant | Value | Kind | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K1 | Propane burned per bushel per point of moisture removed, Iowa farm dryers (average) “LP gas required for drying can vary from 0.01 to 0.025 gal/bu/pt. Average use by Iowa farm dryers may be about 0.018 gal/bu/pt.” | 0.02 gallons per bushel per moisture point | physical | source, 2004-09-13 |
K2 | In-field drying rate of standing corn in November, Iowa “Corn infield drying rate decreases with air temperatures: in September, weekly drying is estimated at 4.5 moisture points per week, and in October, November, and December, this is reduced to 2.5, 1, and 0.5, respectively.” | 1 moisture points per week | physical | source, 2019-09-11 |
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35 more constants
Each with its value, unit, kind, the verbatim sentence it was read from and the dated source.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
10 bounded constraints
Physical, capacity, supply, contract, calendar and regulatory limits, each stated, bounded by a quantity and recomputed from the constants at every build.
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4 alternative explanations
What else could explain the data, what each would predict, the indicator that tells them apart, and whether it is open, weakened, supported or rejected.
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4 conjectures: what the author concludes
Each conclusion with its quantity, the checks run against the constraints and what would prove it wrong.
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IN THE FULL DOSSIER
1 conditional trajectory
Branch conditions with dated thresholds, paths by period with low and high bounds, and implications by organisation.
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The counter-analysis
The independent reviewer's notes and counter-analysis as written, with the disagreements kept. Verdict, public above: accepted by an independent reviewer.
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