{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","title":"Grain-drying propane in the western Corn Belt: a late, wet Iowa harvest meets record US propane exports and lower Midwest stocks, autumn 2026","date":"2026-10-07","mechanism":"DEMAND_SHOCK","geography":[{"code":"US-IA","name":"Iowa (corn harvest and grain drying)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-NE","name":"Nebraska (corn harvest and grain drying)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US","name":"Midwest (PADD 2) propane stocks and residential prices","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-TX","name":"Mont Belvieu, Texas (propane hub and export supply)","latitude":29.847,"longitude":-94.891}],"source_url":"https://www.rfdtv.com/propane-supplies-hold-steady-ahead-of-grain-drying-season","summary":"On 7 October 2026 RFD-TV reported the Propane Education and Research Council saying propane supply is great for the grain-drying season, naming one risk: a very wet corn crop dried across many areas at once against early cold. USDA NASS put Iowa corn 66 % harvested on 1 November 2026 against a 2021-2025 average of 79 % (Nebraska 66 % against 75 %), after an Iowa September with 7.83 inches of rain (NOAA NCEI). EIA weekly data show US propane exports averaging 2,015 thousand barrels per day over weeks 1-44 of 2026, above every year since 2019, and Midwest propane stocks at 17.7 million barrels on 30 October, against 20.8 million a year earlier.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":9,"observations_total":9,"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","key":"ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Corn harvested, percent of acreage, Iowa, 2021-2025 average for the same week as printed in each 2026 weekly USDA NASS Crop Progress report; periods are the 2026 report weeks","unit":"percent of planted acreage","geography":"US-IA","publisher":"usda-nass","source_url":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796135/prog4426.txt","source_sha256":"f6579e568c217e7ea41ec07be57eed03d9402e87b20dc103132d67341cb3f510","collected_at":"2026-11-04T19:59:48+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W36","value":0},{"period":"2026-W37","value":2},{"period":"2026-W38","value":5},{"period":"2026-W39","value":10},{"period":"2026-W40","value":20},{"period":"2026-W41","value":34},{"period":"2026-W42","value":50},{"period":"2026-W43","value":67},{"period":"2026-W44","value":79}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":86,"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","key":"ia-corn-harvested-pct","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Corn harvested, percent of acreage, Iowa, week ending Sunday, harvest seasons 2019-2026, current-week column of each weekly USDA NASS Crop Progress report (ESMIS); 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2025 weeks 40-44 are null because no report was issued (the 2026 reports print (NA) for 2025); source_url and hash are those of the latest report, all 81 reports are listed in the collection note","unit":"percent of planted acreage","geography":"US","publisher":"usda-nass","source_url":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796135/prog4426.txt","source_sha256":"f6579e568c217e7ea41ec07be57eed03d9402e87b20dc103132d67341cb3f510","collected_at":"2026-11-04T19:59:48+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-W44","value":null},{"period":"2025-W46","value":91},{"period":"2025-W47","value":96},{"period":"2026-W36","value":5},{"period":"2026-W37","value":8},{"period":"2026-W38","value":13},{"period":"2026-W39","value":18},{"period":"2026-W40","value":23},{"period":"2026-W41","value":33},{"period":"2026-W42","value":44},{"period":"2026-W43","value":60},{"period":"2026-W44","value":74}]}],"edition":{"title":"A late Iowa corn harvest dries on propane whose price follows the Gulf hub","lead":"Iowa's corn harvest ran behind its 2021-2025 pace on 1 November, and corn cut in November is dried with heat or held wet. The Midwest residential propane price rose for four straight weeks from the 5 October survey to 2.298 dollars a gallon on 2 November; at Iowa's lower survey price the fuel for one point of drying costs about 3.3 cents a bushel. Midwest stocks stood at 17,697 thousand barrels on 30 October, drawing since August inside a larger Gulf-led national draw, and the 7 October statement of the Propane Education and Research Council that supply is great is tested by whether their draw to 20 November stays at or below 2024's pace.","published_at":"2026-11-04","vectors":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"ia-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":66},{"id":"F2","series":"ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":79},{"id":"F3","series":"ne-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":66},{"id":"F4","series":"ne-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":75},{"id":"F5","series":"us18-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":74},{"id":"F6","series":"us18-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":77},{"id":"F7","series":"ia-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":47},{"id":"F8","series":"ia-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2019-W44","value":43},{"id":"F9","series":"ia-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2019-W48","value":92},{"id":"F10","series":"ia-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":7.83},{"id":"F11","series":"ia-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2025-09","value":1.82},{"id":"F12","series":"ia-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2019-09","value":6.21},{"id":"F13","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":17697},{"id":"F14","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W44","value":20761},{"id":"F15","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W44","value":22034},{"id":"F16","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W34","value":19405},{"id":"F17","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W39","value":17963},{"id":"F18","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":18640},{"id":"F19","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W42","value":20779},{"id":"F20","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W42","value":22072},{"id":"F21","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W52","value":15844},{"id":"F22","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W52","value":16643},{"id":"F23","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W47","value":20374},{"id":"F24","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W47","value":20220},{"id":"F25","series":"us-propane-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":1869},{"id":"F26","series":"us-propane-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2025-W44","value":1964},{"id":"F27","series":"us-propane-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2024-W44","value":2289},{"id":"F28","series":"us-propane-exports-kbd","stat":"max","period":null,"value":2625},{"id":"F29","series":"us-propane-exports-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":2233},{"id":"F30","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W45","value":2.298},{"id":"F31","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W45","value":1.94},{"id":"F32","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W41","value":2.055},{"id":"F33","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W41","value":1.904},{"id":"F34","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2021-W45","value":2.369},{"id":"F35","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2021-W41","value":2.305},{"id":"F36","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2024-W45","value":1.956},{"id":"F37","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2024-W41","value":1.906},{"id":"F38","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"max","period":null,"value":2.623},{"id":"F39","series":"ne-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2019-W44","value":60},{"id":"F40","series":"us18-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2019-W44","value":52},{"id":"F41","series":"ia-precip-in","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":4.96},{"id":"F42","series":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":2.2},{"id":"F43","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W36","value":19169},{"id":"F44","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W36","value":19131},{"id":"F45","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W36","value":20407},{"id":"F46","series":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W50","value":18210},{"id":"F47","series":"ia-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2019-W46","value":77},{"id":"F48","series":"ia-corn-harvested-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-W39","value":5}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Midwest (PADD 2) propane stocks, weekly (EIA); the week ending 20 November, released 25 November, sets the branch","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/W_EPLLP0C_SKB_R20_MBBLw.htm"},{"indicator":"Midwest, Iowa and US average residential propane prices, weekly Monday survey (EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/"},{"indicator":"Iowa governor's disaster proclamations: any hours-of-service suspension naming propane by 30 November","source_url":"https://homelandsecurity.iowa.gov/disasters/governors-disaster-proclamations"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"padd2-above-16000-midwest-propane-2-25-to-2-42-november","signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","statement":"If Midwest (PADD 2) propane stocks for the week ending 20 November 2026 are above 16,000 thousand barrels, a draw from 30 October at or below 2024's 1,660 over the same weeks, every weekly Midwest residential propane price surveyed in November 2026 stays between 2.25 and 2.42 USD a gallon, because the drying gallons arrive on the usual delivery cadence and the price follows the national hub, as the two comparable autumns and the CPC outlook of 31 October for a warmer-than-normal November support.","mechanism":"DEMAND_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"PADD 2 propane stocks, week ending 20 November 2026 (EIA weekly, released 25 November)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/W_EPLLP0C_SKB_R20_MBBLw.htm","series_key":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","threshold":{"op":">","value":16000}},{"name":"Midwest residential propane price, weekly Monday surveys of November 2026, upper bound (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/","series_key":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":2.42}},{"name":"Midwest residential propane price, weekly Monday surveys of November 2026, lower bound (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/","series_key":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":">=","value":2.25}}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-02","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"padd2-at-or-below-16000-midwest-propane-2-35-to-2-62-december","signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","statement":"If Midwest (PADD 2) propane stocks for the week ending 20 November 2026 are at or below 16,000 thousand barrels, a draw from 30 October larger than 2024's 1,660 that needs weekly draws above any November week in the series, every weekly Midwest residential propane price surveyed in December 2026 is between 2.35 and 2.62 USD a gallon, the window's high of March 2022, because drying and heating fills then draw on Gulf barrels bought at hub parity plus freight while exports hold their contracted pace.","mechanism":"DEMAND_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"PADD 2 propane stocks, week ending 20 November 2026 (EIA weekly, released 25 November)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/W_EPLLP0C_SKB_R20_MBBLw.htm","series_key":"padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":16000}},{"name":"Midwest residential propane price, weekly Monday surveys of December 2026, lower bound (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/","series_key":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":">=","value":2.35}},{"name":"Midwest residential propane price, weekly Monday surveys of December 2026, upper bound (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/","series_key":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":2.62}}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"midwest-propane-rise-within-10-cents-of-us-average-november","signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","statement":"If the November 2026 price rise is carried by the national hub rather than by Iowa drying, then in every weekly survey of November 2026 the Midwest residential propane price's change from a year earlier exceeds the US average's by less than 0.10 USD a gallon, and the Iowa price stays below the Midwest average; on 2 November the Midwest was up 0.358 against 0.375 for the US, and Iowa was 0.44 below the Midwest.","mechanism":"DEMAND_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Midwest minus US average residential propane price change from a year earlier, weekly surveys of November 2026, USD a gallon (EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":0.1}},{"name":"Midwest residential propane price, weekly surveys of November 2026, the reference for the Iowa comparison (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPLLPA_PRS_R20_DPG&f=W","series_key":"midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","threshold":null},{"name":"Iowa residential propane price, weekly surveys of November 2026, to stay below the Midwest price (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPLLPA_PRS_SIA_DPG&f=W","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-02","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"landus-cooperative","name":"Landus Cooperative","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.landus.ag/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://greenecountynewsonline.com/2023/06/11/landus-jefferson-reconstruction-complete-with-more-capacity-than-previously/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"A new dryer location was added, increasing drying capacity by 6,000 bushels/hour, and expanding the true wet holding capacity from 80,000 to 800,000 bushels."},"reasoning":"The 2023 article shows Landus adding 6,000 bushels per hour of drying and tenfold wet holding at Jefferson, Iowa; the same article reports the company expected a wet harvest that year. A late, wet 2026 Iowa harvest loads that kind of capacity; the page does not show which fuel the Jefferson dryers burn, nor any 2026 drying volume or propane cost.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"new-cooperative","name":"NEW Cooperative, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.newcoop.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.grainfeedequipment.com/facility-features/new-cooperative-blencoe-and-duncombe-ia-adds-upright-concrete-storage-capacity-at-two-locations-drying-at-one-of-them","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"The project at Blencoe also included the installation of a new 6,000-bph, propane-fired Zimmerman tower dryer, which replaces an older, smaller, and less efficient dryer."},"reasoning":"The trade-press profile shows a propane-fired tower dryer at the co-op's Blencoe, Iowa elevator, so wetter corn means more propane burned per bushel received. Inferred: a late harvest with low Midwest stocks raises its drying cost or delivery risk; the page predates 2026 and gives no fuel volumes or supply contracts.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"heartland-co-op","name":"Heartland Co-op","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers; NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers","website":"https://www.heartlandcoop.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.heartlandcoop.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Heartland Co-op has successfully acquired the propane business from Legacy Propane in the Allison, Iowa region."},"reasoning":"The page shows an Iowa grain co-op that also retails propane and is expanding that business. Inferred, not shown: it both dries wet corn at its elevators and must deliver propane to farm dryers in the same weeks, so it carries the logistics squeeze on two sides; its dryer fuel and supply sources are not on the page.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"key-cooperative","name":"Key Cooperative","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers; NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers","website":"https://www.keycoop.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.keycoop.com/energy/propane","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Cenex® is one of the largest propane distributors in the entire country, and meeting the needs of local farmers, businesses and residential customers who depend on us for their heat as well as their livelihoods is a top priority."},"reasoning":"The page shows a central Iowa co-op selling Cenex-supplied propane to farm and residential customers alongside its grain business. Inferred: farm grain-drying fills compete with early heating fills when harvest runs late; the page shows no grain-drying volume or 2026 supply position.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"aurora-cooperative","name":"Aurora Cooperative Elevator Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers; NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers","website":"https://www.auroracoop.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.auroracoop.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Power your farm with convenience – from our gas station to bulk fuel/oil and propane services, we’ve got your energy needs covered."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Nebraska grain co-op that also sells bulk propane to farms. Inferred: Nebraska corn at 66 % harvested against a 75 % average on 1 November keeps drying and propane delivery demand high into colder weeks; the page names no dryer fuel, volumes or 2026 conditions.","series_keys":["ne-corn-harvested-pct","ne-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"chs-inc","name":"CHS Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum products merchant wholesalers (propane)","website":"https://www.chsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.chsinc.com/energy/propane","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"As one of the largest propane wholesalers in the United States, we can help you plan your supply while monitoring market insights so you can focus on growing your energy business. We have access to propane supply at 150 terminals in 40 states and five Canadian provinces"},"reasoning":"The page shows CHS as a national propane wholesaler with terminal access in 40 states and Canada, supplying Cenex co-op retailers in the Corn Belt. Inferred: a drying surge raises its wholesale volumes, while lower PADD 2 stocks raise its supply cost; grain-drying sales and margins are not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","us-propane-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"growmark","name":"GROWMARK, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum products merchant wholesalers (propane)","website":"https://www.growmark.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.growmark.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"2 B+ gallons of gasoline, distillates, and propane marketed annually."},"reasoning":"The page shows GROWMARK marketing propane at scale to member cooperatives; it is a regional member of the Iowa Institute for Cooperatives. Inferred: FS and member co-ops in Iowa and Illinois draw more propane for drying in a late wet harvest; the page does not split propane from other fuels or show drying volumes.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in"]}]},{"slug":"ferrellgas","name":"Ferrellgas Partners, L.P.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers (propane retail)","website":"https://www.ferrellgas.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ferrellgas.com/propane-crop-drying-tobacco-curing/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"One of the main advantages of using propane to fuel your grain dryers is affordability."},"reasoning":"The page shows Ferrellgas selling propane for farm grain dryers, so a wet harvest adds gallons to its farm accounts. Inferred: delivery logistics tighten if drying and early heating overlap; its Iowa and Nebraska share of sales is not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","us18-corn-harvested-pct","us18-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025"]}]},{"slug":"amerigas","name":"AmeriGas Propane, Inc. (UGI Corporation)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers (propane retail)","website":"https://www.amerigas.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.amerigas.com/commercial-propane/propane-uses/crop-drying","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"With increased efficiency, yields, and quality, it’s no surprise that propane is American farmers’ top fuel choice for crop drying."},"reasoning":"The page shows AmeriGas marketing propane for crop drying to farms. Inferred: a late, wet corn harvest raises those sales in the Corn Belt; regional volumes and supply arrangements are not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","us18-corn-harvested-pct","us18-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025"]}]},{"slug":"suburban-propane","name":"Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers (propane retail)","website":"https://www.suburbanpropane.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.suburbanpropane.com/?p=10724","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"There are plenty of reasons why more than 80 percent of grain dryers run on propane."},"reasoning":"The page shows Suburban selling propane into grain drying and states that most dryers run on propane. Inferred: wetter corn raises its farm gallons; its Midwest footprint and any 2026 drying sales are not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","us18-corn-harvested-pct","us18-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025"]}]},{"slug":"mfa-oil","name":"MFA Oil Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers (propane retail)","website":"https://www.mfaoil.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.mfaoil.com/?p=10741","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"In seasons where weather conditions lead to late harvesting, propane grain drying can be an effective way to get crops harvested earlier and ready for market sooner."},"reasoning":"The page ties MFA Oil's propane sales directly to late harvests and grain drying in its Missouri-centred Midwest territory. Inferred: the 2026 late corn harvest is that case; Iowa and Nebraska are outside its core area and 2026 volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","us18-corn-harvested-pct","us18-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025"]}]},{"slug":"oneok","name":"ONEOK, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 486910 Pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products (NGL)","website":"https://www.oneok.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.okenergytoday.com/2019/12/oneok-gets-okay-to-move-propane-into-midwest","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Tulsa-based ONEOK has won federal approval of a move to transport more propane into the Midwest because of a shortage of the fuel."},"reasoning":"The 2019 report shows ONEOK's North System moving propane into the Midwest and being amended during a crop-drying shortage. Inferred: a 2026 drying surge with PADD 2 stocks below last year again raises demand on that line; current flows and allocation are not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in","ne-corn-harvested-pct","ne-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025"]},{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2659158-new-us-lpg-terminal-project-sends-strong-supply-signal","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"US midstream companies MPLX and Oneok this month announced that they are to develop a new 400,000 b/d (12.6mn t/yr) LPG export terminal in Texas City on the US Gulf coast."},"reasoning":"Argus shows ONEOK co-developing a Texas City LPG export terminal due by 2028. Inferred: record exports in 2026 support the case for the project, which also competes with Midwest buyers for Mont Belvieu barrels; it is not operating today.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"enterprise-products","name":"Enterprise Products Partners L.P.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 486910 Pipeline transportation of refined petroleum products (NGL); NAICS 488320 Marine cargo handling","website":"https://www.enterpriseproducts.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.okenergytoday.com/2019/12/oneok-gets-okay-to-move-propane-into-midwest","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"It was in November when the agency approved Enterprise’s move to provide emergency shipments of propane to alleviate high demand caused by unseasonably cold weather and crop-drying needs."},"reasoning":"The report shows Enterprise TE carrying emergency propane from the Gulf to the Midwest in 2019 for crop-drying demand. Inferred: the same line is a relief valve if 2026 drying outruns PADD 2 stocks; 2026 nominations or proration are not shown.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl","ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in"]},{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1143117","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"The midstream producer remains on track to start operations at its expanded Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (EHT) by the end of 2026, the company said. The project will increase the terminal’s LPG export capacity by 300,000 bbl/day."},"reasoning":"The ICIS article shows Enterprise expanding its Houston LPG export terminal by end-2026. Inferred: record exports raise its terminal revenue while drawing on the same Mont Belvieu supply that feeds the Midwest; terminal fees and utilisation are not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"energy-transfer","name":"Energy Transfer LP","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488320 Marine cargo handling (LPG export terminal); NAICS 486910 NGL pipelines","website":"https://www.energytransfer.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2659158-new-us-lpg-terminal-project-sends-strong-supply-signal","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Energy Transfer is adding 250,000 b/d of LPG capacity at its 480,000 b/d Nederland terminal, which is about 125km northeast of Houston, by the end of this year."},"reasoning":"Argus shows Energy Transfer expanding LPG capacity at its Nederland, Texas export terminal. Inferred: the record 2026 export pace uses that capacity and pulls Gulf propane away from northbound supply; its 2026 loadings are not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"targa-resources","name":"Targa Resources Corp.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488320 Marine cargo handling (LPG export terminal); NAICS 211130 NGL fractionation","website":"https://www.targaresources.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2802638-targa-lpg-export-terminal-declares-force-majeure","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Galena Park is the third largest export site in the US, accounting for nearly 20pc of all US LPG exports, equivalent to more than 12 mn t/yr, or some 240,000 t/week."},"reasoning":"Argus shows Galena Park handling nearly a fifth of US LPG exports. Inferred: the record 2026 export pace keeps it full and competes with Midwest demand for Mont Belvieu propane; the March 2026 outage reported on the same page shows the terminal can also cut exports.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"phillips-66","name":"Phillips 66","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries; NAICS 488320 Marine cargo handling (LPG export)","website":"https://www.phillips66.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2778037-india-begins-receiving-first-us-lpg-term-supplies","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"India's HPCL received a 23,000t evenly split propane-butane cargo on board the VLGC BW Var at the Vishakhapatnam refinery on 19 January, having been shipped by US refiner and midstream firm Phillips 66 from the company's Freeport terminal on the US Gulf coast on 8 December."},"reasoning":"Argus shows Phillips 66 loading US LPG for India at its Freeport terminal under the 2026 term deal. Inferred: export demand underpins its terminal and NGL margins while Midwest buyers pay for the same Gulf supply; volumes by month are not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"mplx","name":"MPLX LP","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488320 Marine cargo handling (LPG export terminal, under development)","website":"https://www.mplx.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2659158-new-us-lpg-terminal-project-sends-strong-supply-signal","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"US midstream companies MPLX and Oneok this month announced that they are to develop a new 400,000 b/d (12.6mn t/yr) LPG export terminal in Texas City on the US Gulf coast."},"reasoning":"Argus shows MPLX co-developing a 400,000 b/d Texas City LPG export terminal due by 2028. Inferred: the record export pace supports its case; it does not move propane today.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"chevron","name":"Chevron Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 211120 Crude petroleum extraction; NAICS 424720 Petroleum products wholesalers (LPG)","website":"https://www.chevron.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2778037-india-begins-receiving-first-us-lpg-term-supplies","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"This was preceded by India's IOC receiving a similar 22,100t shipment on the VLGC Hellas Hercules at Ennore on 17 January, from Chevron through midstream operator Targa's Houston terminal on 9 December, ship tracking data from Kpler show."},"reasoning":"Argus shows Chevron selling US LPG to India through Targa's Houston terminal under a 2026 term contract. Inferred: strong export demand supports its LPG sales prices; how much of its propane would otherwise reach the Midwest is not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"totalenergies","name":"TotalEnergies SE","country":"FR","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum products merchant wholesalers (LPG trading)","website":"https://totalenergies.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2778037-india-begins-receiving-first-us-lpg-term-supplies","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"IOC, HPCL and peer BPCL are contracted to receive 2.2mn t of US LPG combined over the course of 2026 from Phillips 66, Chevron and TotalEnergies, which will meet around 10pc of India's import needs."},"reasoning":"Argus names TotalEnergies among the three sellers of US LPG to Indian refiners in 2026. Inferred: a remote trader benefits from the export pull on US Gulf propane; its own US loading volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"bw-lpg","name":"BW LPG Limited","country":"SG","sector":"NAICS 483111 Deep sea freight transportation (VLGC)","website":"https://www.bwlpg.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2817841-india-buys-spot-us-lpg-as-middle-east-war-persists","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"These bookings were part of a spot deal with BW LPG Product Services (BWPS), the in-house trading arm of Oslo-listed BW LPG and refiner Marathon, traders said."},"reasoning":"Argus shows BW LPG's trading arm selling US-loaded LPG cargoes to India in 2026, carried on its gas carriers. Inferred: a record US export pace raises tonne-miles and trading flows for VLGC owners; freight rates and fleet use are not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"indian-oil","name":"Indian Oil Corporation Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries (LPG import and distribution)","website":"https://iocl.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2817841-india-buys-spot-us-lpg-as-middle-east-war-persists","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"State-run BPCL and IOC have made spot LPG purchases this week for May and June loadings at US Mont Belvieu prices at a premium of 47¢ per gallon and in the low-20s¢ to high-30s¢ per gallon, respectively, traders with knowledge of the matter told Argus ."},"reasoning":"Argus shows IOC buying US cargoes priced off Mont Belvieu in 2026, on top of its term contract. Inferred: it competes with Midwest buyers for the same Gulf propane, so its buying adds to the export pace; how much it would bid in a Midwest squeeze is not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"bpcl","name":"Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries (LPG import and distribution)","website":"https://www.bharatpetroleum.in/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2817841-india-buys-spot-us-lpg-as-middle-east-war-persists","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"BPCL will load two 46,000t evenly split LPG cargoes onto BW Global United LPG and Global United Shipping India joint venture BW Global United LPG-owned BW Chinook and shipping firm Great Eastern Shipping-owned Jag Vasant on 30-31 May."},"reasoning":"Argus shows BPCL lifting US LPG cargoes in 2026. Inferred: its demand is part of the record export pull on US Gulf supply that Midwest stocks also depend on; its volumes after June are not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"hpcl","name":"Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries (LPG import and distribution)","website":"https://www.hindustanpetroleum.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2817841-india-buys-spot-us-lpg-as-middle-east-war-persists","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"IOC, BPCL and HPCL signed their first LPG supply contracts with the US for 2026 for 2.2mn t of LPG imports from the US Gulf coast, which will meet around 10pc of India's annual requirements."},"reasoning":"Argus shows HPCL under a 2026 term contract for US Gulf coast LPG. Inferred: monthly contracted liftings keep export demand firm regardless of Midwest drying needs; the HPCL share is not broken out.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"eneos-globe","name":"ENEOS GLOBE Corporation","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum products merchant wholesalers (LPG import)","website":"https://www.eneos-globe.co.jp/english/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.eneos-globe.co.jp/english/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"As a leading LPG importing and distributing company, we work closely with our shareholders-ENEOS Corporation, the largest energy corporation in Japan, and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. and Marubeni Corporation, two of the biggest trading firms in Japan-to ensure a safe and stable LPG supply for our domestic customers and to develop global operations."},"reasoning":"The page shows a major Japanese LPG importer. Argus (Galena Park page) says Japan and South Korea take most of that terminal's exports, but this page does not show ENEOS GLOBE's US purchases; its competition with Midwest buyers for Gulf propane is inferred.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"wanhua-chemical","name":"Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd.","country":"CN","sector":"NAICS 325110 Petrochemical manufacturing (PDH, cracker)","website":"https://en.whchem.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1117847","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"A long-term supply agreement between East China-based Wanhua Chemical and Kuwait Petroleum Corp., signed in April, is expected to further reduce reliance on US imports, traders say."},"reasoning":"The S&P article shows Wanhua shifting propane sourcing away from US imports toward Kuwait. Inferred: less Chinese pull leaves more US propane for Japan, Korea, India or domestic use; the 2026 effect on US exports is not quantified.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"kuwait-petroleum","name":"Kuwait Petroleum Corporation","country":"KW","sector":"NAICS 211120 Crude petroleum and LPG production","website":"https://www.kpc.com.kw/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1117847","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"A long-term supply agreement between East China-based Wanhua Chemical and Kuwait Petroleum Corp., signed in April, is expected to further reduce reliance on US imports, traders say."},"reasoning":"The article shows KPC displacing US propane at a Chinese buyer under a term deal. Inferred: Middle East supply competes with US exports in Asia, and when it is disrupted (Hormuz, 2026) Asian demand shifts to the US Gulf; KPC's 2026 loadings are not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"altagas","name":"AltaGas Ltd.","country":"CA","sector":"NAICS 488320 Marine cargo handling (propane export terminal)","website":"https://www.altagas.ca/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.altagas.ca/infrastructure/midstream/ridley-island-propane-export-terminal","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"The terminal leverages CN’s existing railway network, and the deepest harbour in North America to offer Canada’s natural gas producers direct access to international markets and a 15-day shipping advantage vs. the U.S. Gulf Coast."},"reasoning":"The page shows AltaGas exporting Canadian propane to Asia from Prince Rupert in direct competition with the US Gulf Coast. Inferred: Canadian propane that goes west by sea is not available by rail to the US Midwest; AltaGas's 2026 volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["us-propane-exports-kbd","mont-belvieu-propane-spot-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"sukup-manufacturing","name":"Sukup Manufacturing Co.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 333111 Farm machinery and equipment manufacturing (grain dryers)","website":"https://www.sukup.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sukup.com/products/farm","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Sukup: Your Solution for Tackling a Wet Harvest Season. Sukup Manufactures Mixed Flow Dryers, Cross Flow Dryers, and Tower Dryers."},"reasoning":"The page shows an Iowa maker selling grain dryers as the answer to wet harvests. Inferred: a wet 2026 Iowa harvest supports dryer parts, service and later orders; 2026 sales are not shown.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in"]}]},{"slug":"agco-gsi","name":"AGCO Corporation (GSI)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 333111 Farm machinery and equipment manufacturing (grain dryers)","website":"https://www.grainsystems.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.grainsystems.com/na/en/products/conditioning/continuous-flow-dryers/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Portable Dryers allow you to start harvesting your grain earlier at higher moisture levels and to dry it in bins on the farm, increasing yields and improving profits."},"reasoning":"The page shows GSI selling dryers that let farmers harvest at higher moisture. Inferred: wet corn years lift dryer use and service; the page does not show the Iowa or Nebraska market or any 2026 figure.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in","ne-corn-harvested-pct","ne-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025"]}]},{"slug":"midamerican-energy","name":"MidAmerican Energy Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 221210 Natural gas distribution","website":"https://www.midamericanenergy.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.midamericanenergy.com/natural-gas","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"MidAmerican Energy proudly serves 811,000 natural gas customers in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and South Dakota."},"reasoning":"The page shows a natural gas utility in Iowa and Nebraska. Inferred: elevators connected to its mains can dry with natural gas instead of propane, so its load rises with a wet harvest without drawing on PADD 2 propane; grain-drying load is not shown.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"propane-education-research-council","name":"Propane Education & Research Council (PERC)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://propane.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.rfdtv.com/propane-supplies-hold-steady-ahead-of-grain-drying-season","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Really, that’s the reason why the grain drying market is the one thing in the propane industry that can throw everybody a curveball if we have tremendous grain drying across the U.S. all at the same time."},"reasoning":"The hook article attributes this statement to PERC: grain drying is the propane demand that can surprise the industry if it peaks everywhere at once. PERC said supply was fine on 7 October 2026; whether the late harvest proves that wrong is the open question, not shown here.","series_keys":["us18-corn-harvested-pct","us18-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"national-propane-gas-association","name":"National Propane Gas Association (NPGA)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.npga.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.naturalgasintel.com/?p=82903","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Citing “dangerously low” propane supplies throughout the country, but particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, the National Propane Gas Association (NPGA) Thursday petitioned the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for an emergency order directing more shipments to the hard-hit regions."},"reasoning":"The article shows NPGA petitioning FERC for priority Midwest propane shipments in the 2014 shortage. Inferred: it is the body that would seek pipeline relief again if 2026 PADD 2 stocks run short; no 2026 action is shown.","series_keys":["midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"iowa-department-of-agriculture","name":"Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 926140 Regulation of agricultural marketing and commodities","website":"https://iowaagriculture.gov/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://iowaagriculture.gov/news/naig-increased-propane-demands-fall","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Start evaluating grain drying, home and livestock heating needs and supply plans now"},"reasoning":"The 2020 release shows the state agency urging farmers and suppliers to plan propane for grain drying and heating. Inferred: it is the authority that issues such notices and hours-of-service waivers in a squeeze; no 2026 notice is shown.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in","midwest-propane-residential-usd-gal","padd2-propane-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"iowa-state-university-extension","name":"Iowa State University Extension and Outreach","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 611310 Colleges and universities (agricultural extension)","website":"https://www.extension.iastate.edu/","exposures":[{"signal":"midwest-propane-grain-drying-wet-iowa-harvest-lpg-exports-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/post/wet-corn-and-propane-shortage","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Since most farm dryers and some elevator dryers operate on propane gas (LP), the LP distribution backup has caused wet corn to be held, either in storage, or in the field."},"reasoning":"The 2019 extension note shows that propane delivery backlogs held wet corn in Iowa fields and bins. It documents the mechanism of this signal in an earlier year; 2026 corn moisture is not shown.","series_keys":["ia-corn-harvested-pct","ia-corn-harvested-pct-avg-2021-2025","ia-precip-in"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"With a third of Iowa's corn still standing on 1 November after the fourth-wettest September since 1895 and an October 4 to 12 degrees above normal week by week, does NEW Cooperative keep its 6,000-bushel-an-hour propane-fired tower dryer at Blencoe running through November on gallons bought above its contracts at a hub-led price and pass the fuel to growers through the drying charge, or slow wet-corn receipts and hold grain in aerated bins, while Midwest propane stocks carry the regional share of a national, Gulf-led draw and the terminals export at a record annual pace?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Propane burned per bushel per point of moisture removed, Iowa farm dryers (average)","value":0.018,"unit":"gallons per bushel per moisture point","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/encyclopedia/lp-gas-drying-estimate","source_date":"2004-09-13","quote":"LP gas required for drying can vary from 0.01 to 0.025 gal/bu/pt. Average use by Iowa farm dryers may be about 0.018 gal/bu/pt.","note":"Iowa State University Extension, IC-492(20), 13 September 2004; the same 0.018 figure and 0.010 to 0.025 range are repeated in the ISU note of 11 September 2019 (K2). The average is used rather than the conservative end: at 0.010 gal/bu/pt every quantity that depends on K1 is 56 percent of the value printed; at 0.025 it is 139 percent. Dryer design, outdoor temperature and humidity move it."},{"id":"K2","name":"In-field drying rate of standing corn in November, Iowa","value":1,"unit":"moisture points per week","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/cropnews/2019/09/grain-drying-considerations-fall","source_date":"2019-09-11","quote":"Corn infield drying rate decreases with air temperatures: in September, weekly drying is estimated at 4.5 moisture points per week, and in October, November, and December, this is reduced to 2.5, 1, and 0.5, respectively.","note":"Iowa State University Extension agricultural engineers, 11 September 2019. October is 2.5 points a week, December 0.5. The rates are a normal-weather rule: in October 2026 the IDALS weekly statewide temperature ran 4.0 to 11.8 degrees above normal (K29), and the CPC outlook of 31 October favours an above-normal November over the Upper Mississippi Valley (K28), so the field rate of both months is more likely above the rule than below it."}],"constants_total":37,"constraints_total":10,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"September 2026 rainfall in Iowa","to":"harvest progress in Iowa and Nebraska on 1 November","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L2","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"corn cut in November rather than October","to":"grain moisture at delivery and propane burned per bushel","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L3","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"grain-drying demand","to":"the Midwest stock draw of September 2026","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L4","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"harvest weeks of October 2026 (Iowa 5 to 66 percent)","to":"the drying share of the Midwest stock draw of October 2026","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L5","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"the hub propane price and the Gulf export pull","to":"the Midwest residential propane price","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L6","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"drying and heating deliveries in the same weeks","to":"delivery queues, allocation and an Iowa hours-of-service proclamation for propane","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L7","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"propane price and delivery cadence at the elevator","to":"NEW Cooperative's choice at Blencoe: keep the dryer running on uncontracted gallons, or slow receipts and hold wet corn","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L8","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Gulf export capacity and term contracts","to":"exports through the fourth quarter at or above the 2025 pace","status":"CONSISTENT"}],"alternatives_total":4,"conjectures_total":4,"trajectories_total":1,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-04","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-04","constants":37,"constraints":10,"links":8,"untested":3,"contradicted":1,"alternatives":4,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. Premium emails send the latest analysis when you join and each new one after publication; their links last seven days and need a current subscription. Files you downloaded stay yours within each source licence; downloads and API access stop when the subscription ends"}}}