{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","title":"US grain shuttle freight: secondary bids deflate after a $1,100 spike while 2027 shuttles sell at twice last year's price, autumn 2026","date":"2026-10-29","mechanism":"DEMAND_SHOCK","geography":[{"code":"US-ND","name":"North Dakota (shuttle origins)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-MN","name":"Minnesota (shuttle origins)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-NE","name":"Nebraska (shuttle origins)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-KS","name":"Kansas (shuttle origins)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-WA","name":"Pacific Northwest export terminals, Washington","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-LA","name":"Mississippi Gulf export terminals, Louisiana","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"US-IL","name":"Granite City, Illinois (Mississippi Locks 27)","latitude":38.712,"longitude":-90.17},{"code":"CN","name":"China (soybean importer)","latitude":null,"longitude":null}],"source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR10292026.pdf","summary":"USDA's Grain Transportation Report of 29 October 2026 puts average November shuttle secondary railcar bids at $188 per car above tariff for the week ending 22 October, $393 below the same week of 2025, five weeks after BNSF October shuttle bids reached $1,100 over tariff. On 23 September BNSF sold 13 yearlong shuttle contracts starting January 2027 at an average $1.3 million, against $595,000 for the January 2026 auctions. 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source_url and hash are those of the latest report, the earlier weekly reports are listed in the collection note","unit":"percent of planted acreage","geography":"US","publisher":"usda-nass","source_url":"https://usda.library.cornell.edu/sites/default/release-files/796135/prog4426.txt","source_sha256":"f6579e568c217e7ea41ec07be57eed03d9402e87b20dc103132d67341cb3f510","collected_at":"2026-11-04T17:01:16+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W37","value":6},{"period":"2026-W38","value":12},{"period":"2026-W39","value":17},{"period":"2026-W40","value":25},{"period":"2026-W41","value":46},{"period":"2026-W42","value":64},{"period":"2026-W43","value":79},{"period":"2026-W44","value":88}]}],"edition":{"title":"A 2027 BNSF shuttle train costs $428 a car per trip; resale pays $600 in winter and under $213 from April","lead":"BNSF's January 2027 yearlong shuttle trains sold on 23 September at 1.3 million dollars each, within the range of its 140-train programme since 2024: about 428 dollars per car per trip at the turns BNSF is running. On 22 October brokers bid 600 dollars per car for January to March 2027 placements and 175 to 212.5 for April to September, after the usual autumn slide. A holder recovers the premium on winter trips and loses it on the rest, unless December brings back the 2025 winter.","published_at":"2026-11-04","vectors":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W36","value":1300},{"id":"F2","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W38","value":1100},{"id":"F3","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":275},{"id":"F4","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":866.67},{"id":"F5","series":"up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":100},{"id":"F6","series":"up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":293.75},{"id":"F7","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":550},{"id":"F8","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":600},{"id":"F10","series":"up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":150},{"id":"F11","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2025-W49","value":1500},{"id":"F12","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2025-W52","value":1075},{"id":"F13","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W01","value":1250},{"id":"F14","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W07","value":225},{"id":"F15","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2024-W49","value":550},{"id":"F16","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2024-W51","value":206.25},{"id":"F17","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2023-W50","value":600},{"id":"F18","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2023-W51","value":350},{"id":"F19","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2022-W49","value":616.67},{"id":"F20","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2022-W52","value":1305.56},{"id":"F21","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2021-W49","value":816.67},{"id":"F22","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2021-W52","value":1683.33},{"id":"F23","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W03","value":700},{"id":"F24","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2022-W01","value":1950},{"id":"F25","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2022-W06","value":-87.5},{"id":"F26","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W05","value":650},{"id":"F27","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2025-W02","value":225},{"id":"F28","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2024-W04","value":850},{"id":"F29","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2025-W05","value":275},{"id":"F30","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2025-W07","value":1125},{"id":"F31","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W39","value":700},{"id":"F32","series":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":62.5},{"id":"F33","series":"bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":14121},{"id":"F34","series":"bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":13213},{"id":"F35","series":"bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2021-W43","value":16429},{"id":"F36","series":"bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2024-W43","value":14777},{"id":"F37","series":"bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":8921},{"id":"F38","series":"bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":9343},{"id":"F39","series":"bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2026-W01","value":10099},{"id":"F40","series":"bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2022-W04","value":16452},{"id":"F41","series":"bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2024-W03","value":9092},{"id":"F42","series":"bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","stat":"value","period":"2024-W50","value":15984},{"id":"F43","series":"bnsf-unfilled-grain-car-orders","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":735},{"id":"F44","series":"bnsf-unfilled-grain-car-orders","stat":"max","period":null,"value":14299},{"id":"F45","series":"up-unfilled-grain-car-orders","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":48},{"id":"F46","series":"bnsf-unfilled-grain-car-orders","stat":"value","period":"2025-W43","value":509},{"id":"F47","series":"cn-soybean-commitments-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":15074187},{"id":"F48","s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and UP secondary shuttle bids for December 2026 to September 2027 delivery, weekly, USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report Table 5","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/cvu8-kpyk"},{"indicator":"BNSF average monthly shuttle turns to the Pacific Northwest, reported and planned, STB EP 724 via USDA AgTransport","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/nwye-ushu"},{"indicator":"BNSF yearlong shuttle auction results for 2027/28 starts, February to March 2027, USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/gtr"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"jan-train-at-or-below-600-resale-stays-below-cost","signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","statement":"If the BNSF secondary bid for January 2027 delivery is at or below 600 dollars per car in the last week of December 2026, as the January 2025 train traded in December 2024, the BNSF next-month bid stays below 428 dollars per car, the premium per car-trip of the 2027 trains, in most weeks of January to March 2027.","mechanism":"DEMAND_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"BNSF secondary shuttle bid for January 2027 delivery, weekly (USDA AMS)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/cvu8-kpyk","series_key":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":600}},{"name":"BNSF next-month secondary shuttle bid, weekly (USDA AMS)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/cvu8-kpyk","series_key":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","threshold":{"op":"<","value":428}}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"jan-train-above-1000-winter-resale-above-cost","signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","statement":"If the BNSF secondary bid for January 2027 delivery reaches 1,000 dollars per car or more by 31 December 2026, as the January 2026 train did in December 2025, the BNSF next-month bid stays at or above 700 dollars per car in the weeks of January 2027, so 2027 trains resell their first-quarter placements above their 428 dollars per car-trip cost.","mechanism":"DEMAND_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"BNSF secondary shuttle bid for January 2027 delivery, weekly (USDA AMS)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/cvu8-kpyk","series_key":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","threshold":{"op":">=","value":1000}},{"name":"BNSF next-month secondary shuttle bid, weekly (USDA AMS)","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/cvu8-kpyk","series_key":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","threshold":{"op":">=","value":700}}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"140-trains-keep-2027-auctions-above-1-million","signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","statement":"If BNSF offers no more than 140 shuttle trains for 2027/28, its February to March 2027 yearlong auctions for August to October 2027 starts average at least 1 million dollars per train, whatever the winter secondary bids do; an average below 1 million would mean the railroad, not the holders, absorbs the revision.","mechanism":"DEMAND_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"BNSF yearlong shuttle auction average for August to October 2027 starts (USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report)","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/gtr","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1000000}},{"name":"BNSF next-month secondary shuttle bid, weekly (USDA AMS), read alongside","source_url":"https://agtransport.usda.gov/d/cvu8-kpyk","series_key":"bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-03-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"bnsf-railway","name":"BNSF Railway Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.bnsf.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR09242026.pdf","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"On September 23, BNSF Railway (BNSF) held an auction for 13 yearlong shuttle trains—all set to begin in January 2027. BNSF sold the 13 shuttle train contracts for a combined $17.2 million, and winning bids averaged $1.3 million per shuttle contract."},"reasoning":"USDA reports that BNSF sold its 2027 yearlong shuttles at more than twice the January 2026 average, so the railroad captures the scarcity premium up front in primary auctions. It is inferred, not shown, that the later fall in secondary bids does not reduce this revenue, because secondary trades are between shippers holding the contracts.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","bnsf-unfilled-grain-car-orders"]}]},{"slug":"union-pacific-railroad","name":"Union Pacific Railroad Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.up.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.up.com/shipping/agricultural/grain","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Union Pacific offers specifically designed programs and systems to distribute UP covered hoppers for agricultural-related shipments, including shuttles, guaranteed freight and vouchers."},"reasoning":"The page shows that Union Pacific allocates its covered hoppers through shuttle, guaranteed-freight and auction programs, which places it on the same shuttle market as BNSF. Its secondary shuttle bids for January 2027 fell from 250 to 150 dollars per car while BNSF's rose; why UP's premium is lower is not shown and may reflect its origin and destination mix.","series_keys":["up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","up-shuttle-cars-loaded","up-unfilled-grain-car-orders"]}]},{"slug":"cpkc","name":"Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited","country":"CA","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.cpkcr.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR09242026.pdf","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"rail tariff rates from the western Corn Belt to PNW export terminals will rise by $200 per car for BNSF-served origins and $225 per car for CPKC-served origins"},"reasoning":"USDA names CPKC as the second railroad raising western Corn Belt to Pacific Northwest tariffs this autumn, so it competes with BNSF for the same export flow. Its shuttle volumes and secondary premiums are not in the series collected here; its position is read from the tariff only.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded"]}]},{"slug":"scoular","name":"The Scoular Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.scoular.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.scoular.com/grain/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Facilities are great places to learn teamwork, which was on display in mid-September at our Waverly, Illinois, high-speed shuttle loader on the BNSF main line. When a 115-car train rolls in, the team has 15 hours to load it with 450,000 bushels of corn."},"reasoning":"Scoular states that it runs a high-speed shuttle loader on the BNSF main line, and the BNSF elevator list flags further Scoular shuttle facilities. Whether it holds primary 2027 contracts bought at the auction price, or buys trains in the secondary market where bids fell, is not shown; the sign of its exposure depends on that position.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","us-corn-harvested-pct","us-soybeans-harvested-pct"]}]},{"slug":"chs","name":"CHS Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.chsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.chsinc.com/products-and-services/agriculture/grains/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"And as one of the world’s largest customers of freight and barge transportation, we ensure safe and timely delivery of high-quality grain supported by experienced traders and risk managers."},"reasoning":"The page shows CHS as a large buyer of freight and barge transport for grain, and the BNSF elevator list flags more than a dozen CHS-named shuttle facilities in the northern plains. The quote does not mention shuttles, auctions or China; the exposure to shuttle premiums and to the export calendar is inferred from that footprint.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","us-corn-harvested-pct","us-soybeans-harvested-pct","locks27-upbound-empty-barges"]}]},{"slug":"agtegra-cooperative","name":"Agtegra Cooperative","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.agtegra.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.agtegra.com/grain","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Driven by ever-increasing production, growing global demand and the constant challenge of managing risks, Agtegra Cooperative has vigilantly invested in efficient storage and loadout facilities to meet the needs of our customers."},"reasoning":"The page shows investment in storage and loadout capacity; the BNSF elevator list flags eleven Agtegra shuttle facilities, mostly in South Dakota. A South Dakota cooperative depends on rail to the Pacific Northwest for exports, so shuttle premiums and harvest pace move its basis; the page itself does not mention rail or shuttles.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","us-corn-harvested-pct","us-soybeans-harvested-pct"]}]},{"slug":"aurora-cooperative","name":"Aurora Cooperative Elevator Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://auroracoop.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://auroracoop.com/products-services/grain/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"And thanks to key infrastructure investments, we’re ready to handle a future of increased yields and new markets for your grain."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Nebraska grain cooperative investing for larger crops; the BNSF elevator list flags Aurora shuttle facilities. Its shuttle contracts, destinations and export share are not shown, so the exposure to secondary bids and to the record crop is inferred from its role as a western Corn Belt shuttle origin.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","us-corn-harvested-pct","us-soybeans-harvested-pct"]}]},{"slug":"columbia-grain-international","name":"Columbia Grain International, LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.columbiagrain.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://columbiagrain.com/about/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Our supply chain network has evolved over the decades to encompass over 8,000 farmers, spanning the northern tier of the United States."},"reasoning":"The page shows an origination network across the northern tier, which is the BNSF shuttle origin territory; the BNSF elevator list flags eleven CGI shuttle facilities in the northern plains and Montana. The link from these facilities to its export flows and its auction position are inferred, not shown on the page.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded"]}]},{"slug":"united-grain-corporation","name":"United Grain Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 493130 Farm product warehousing and storage","website":"https://www.unitedgrain.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://unitedgrain.com/about-ugc/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Our integrated Country Terminal Operations, comprised of 20 inland unit train, truck, and barge terminal facilities, provide reliable, expert service to our producers in Oregon, Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, and South Dakota."},"reasoning":"United Grain states that unit-train terminals in the Dakotas and Montana feed its Vancouver, Washington export terminal, which puts it on the shuttle chain at both ends. How much China soybean volume it loads this winter is not shown; the benefit from heavier December–March shipments is inferred.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t","bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car"]}]},{"slug":"egt-llc","name":"EGT, LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 493130 Farm product warehousing and storage","website":"https://www.egtllc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sdsoybean.org/news-media/see-for-yourself-participants-visit-the-export-grain-terminal","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Product from South Dakota is delivered to the port via railcar in 4 days. It costs on average $4,000-$6,000 per car (or on average $1 per bushel) to transport a shuttle car with grain from South Dakota to the port."},"reasoning":"The South Dakota Soybean board page (dated 2016) describes shuttle cars from South Dakota unloading at EGT's Longview terminal, which places EGT on the shuttle-to-PNW chain; the cost figures are from 2016 and are not current. Its 2026/27 China programme and its share of shuttle arrivals are not shown.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t","bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car"]}]},{"slug":"bunge-global","name":"Bunge Global SA","country":"CH","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.bunge.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sdsoybean.org/news-media/see-for-yourself-participants-visit-the-export-grain-terminal","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"EGT, LLC is a joint venture between Bunge North America and ITOCHU International Inc., a U.S. subsidiary of Japanese trading company ITOCHU Corp."},"reasoning":"The 2016 page names Bunge North America as a joint owner of the EGT export terminal in Longview, so Bunge's earnings carry part of that terminal's winter throughput. The ownership has not been rechecked for 2026 here, and the size of its stake is not shown.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t"]},{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.viterra.us/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"As of July 2, Bunge and Viterra combined to become one company."},"reasoning":"The page shows that Viterra, which absorbed Gavilon's US grain business, is now part of Bunge; the BNSF elevator list still flags Gavilon- and Viterra-named shuttle facilities. That these shuttle origins now belong to Bunge and face the same secondary-bid swing is inferred from the merger and the list, not from a Bunge statement.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","us-corn-harvested-pct","us-soybeans-harvested-pct"]}]},{"slug":"itochu","name":"ITOCHU Corporation","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 425120 Wholesale trade agents and brokers","website":"https://www.itochu.co.jp/en/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sdsoybean.org/news-media/see-for-yourself-participants-visit-the-export-grain-terminal","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"EGT, LLC is a joint venture between Bunge North America and ITOCHU International Inc., a U.S. subsidiary of Japanese trading company ITOCHU Corp."},"reasoning":"The page names ITOCHU, through its US subsidiary, as a joint owner of the EGT terminal, so a Japanese trading house shares in the PNW throughput driven by China's state buying. The current ownership split is not shown and the page dates from 2016.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-kalama","name":"Port of Kalama","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://portofkalama.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://portofkalama.com/port-of-kalama-receives-26-3-million-federal-grant-for-rail-expansion-project/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Largest grant ever received by the Port will expand rail lines leading to the Temco grain elevator, cementing Kalama’s status as a top U.S. exporter of grain"},"reasoning":"The port states that it is expanding the rail lines into the TEMCO grain elevator, a rail-fed export terminal; the BNSF elevator list shows TEMCO and Kalama Export Company shuttle entries at Kalama. The port's revenue link to grain volumes and the project's timing relative to this winter are not shown.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-vancouver-usa","name":"Port of Vancouver USA","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://www.portvanusa.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.portvanusa.com/business-opportunities/marine/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"with dedicated facilities for shipping automobiles, grains, mineral ores and agricultural commodities, and more. The port’s position at the crossroads of ocean-bound and river shipping lanes, interstate highways and Class I rail lines makes it the perfect port to serve clients with regional and global transportation needs."},"reasoning":"The page shows grain facilities served by Class I rail and river lanes; United Grain's Vancouver Export Terminal sits in the port. The port's dependence on grain throughput, and which tenants load China cargoes, are not shown and are inferred.","series_keys":["bnsf-up-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-longview","name":"Port of Longview","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://www.portoflongview.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.portoflongview.com/241/Marine-Terminals","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Marine Terminal Tenants International Raw Materials bp EGT, LLC"},"reasoning":"The port lists EGT, LLC among its marine terminal tenants, which ties it to EGT's shuttle-fed grain exports. Lease terms and any throughput-linked revenue are not shown, so the exposure is inferred.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]},{"slug":"ag-processing-inc","name":"Ag Processing Inc","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 311224 Soybean and other oilseed processing","website":"https://www.agp.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.agp.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Ag Processing Inc (AGP®) is a leading agribusiness engaged in procuring, processing, marketing, and transporting of oilseeds, grains, and related products."},"reasoning":"The page shows AGP procures and transports oilseeds and grains; the BNSF elevator list includes an AGP International Terminal entry at Aberdeen (Grays Harbor), Washington, flagged for shuttles. Its export volumes to China and its rail position are not shown; as a crusher it also competes with exporters for the same soybeans.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-cars-loaded","cn-soybean-commitments-t","bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car"]}]},{"slug":"adm","name":"Archer-Daniels-Midland Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.adm.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.adm.com/en-us/products-services/services/transportation-logistics/barge-stevedoring/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"ARTCo operates a fully integrated transportation network on the inland waterways. Operations consist of one of the largest covered hopper barge fleets in North America, a vast network of harbor services locations on the river system, linehaul towing vessels, and a large stevedoring operation in the gulf."},"reasoning":"ADM's ARTCo runs covered hopper barges and Gulf stevedoring, the barge-to-Gulf route that substitutes for shuttle rail to the Pacific Northwest. That ADM gains share when shuttle premiums rise, or loses it when they fall, is inferred; the BNSF elevator list also flags ADM-Benson Quinn shuttle facilities, so ADM sits on both routes.","series_keys":["locks27-upbound-empty-barges","stlouis-barge-rate-pct","bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car"]}]},{"slug":"american-commercial-barge-line","name":"American Commercial Barge Line LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://www.bargeacbl.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bargeacbl.com/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Corn, soybeans, and wheat from the American Midwest reach global markets through the export terminals at the Gulf. From the country elevator to the ship, the barge is how the world eats American grain."},"reasoning":"ACBL describes the barge-to-Gulf grain route, the substitute mode for shuttles to the Pacific Northwest. Empty barges returning north past Locks 27 stood at 285 in 2026-W43, below 2025; whether ACBL's fleet is tight or idle is not shown and its exposure to the rail premium is inferred.","series_keys":["locks27-upbound-empty-barges","stlouis-barge-rate-pct"]}]},{"slug":"ingram-barge","name":"Ingram Barge Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 483211 Inland water freight transportation","website":"https://ingrambarge.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ingrambarge.com/services/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Ingram is the largest dry cargo carrier on America’s inland waterways, delivering reliable transportation you can count on."},"reasoning":"The page shows Ingram as the largest dry cargo barge carrier; grain is not named in the quote. Its role as the substitute mode for Gulf-bound soybeans is inferred from the dry cargo business and the downbound barge rate series.","series_keys":["locks27-upbound-empty-barges","stlouis-barge-rate-pct"]}]},{"slug":"gatx","name":"GATX Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 532411 Commercial air, rail, and water transportation equipment rental and leasing","website":"https://www.gatx.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.gatx.com/gatx-rail-north-america/fleet/railcars/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"From tank car to boxcar, covered hopper to intermodal well—explore what we have to offer! As the leading full-service railcar lessor in North America, we offer a wide variety of railcars for our customers."},"reasoning":"The page shows GATX leases covered hoppers in North America. That a sustained shuttle premium raises demand and lease rates for private grain hoppers, and that the collapse in secondary bids reverses it, is inferred; GATX's grain-car share and lease terms are not shown.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","bnsf-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-jan-2027-usd-car"]}]},{"slug":"soy-transportation-coalition","name":"Soy Transportation Coalition","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.soytransportation.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.soytransportation.org/aboutus.html","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"The Soy Transportation Coalition is an organization comprised of thirteen state soybean boards, the American Soybean Association, and the United Soybean Board."},"reasoning":"The page shows a coalition of soybean producer boards focused on transport; its members' farmers bear rail and barge costs through local basis. The coalition's position on shuttle auctions or premiums is not shown; its interest is inferred from its mission.","series_keys":["bnsf-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","up-shuttle-bid-next-month-usd-car","locks27-upbound-empty-barges","stlouis-barge-rate-pct","cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]},{"slug":"sinograin","name":"China Grain Reserves Group Ltd. Company (Sinograin)","country":"CN","sector":"NAICS 493130 Farm product warehousing and storage","website":"https://www.sinograin.com.cn/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/grain-in-focus-us-soybean-sailings-to-china-recover-through-september/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Purchases reported on 10 September covered approximately 1 million tonnes, with Sinograin booking cargoes from US Gulf Coast export terminals to China for December 2026–February 2027 shipment."},"reasoning":"A shipping-market report names Sinograin as the buyer of US Gulf cargoes for December 2026 to February 2027, the window that concentrates demand on US export logistics. The statement rests on trade reports, not on a Sinograin disclosure, and the prices paid are not shown; calling it a beneficiary of lower winter freight is an inference.","series_keys":["cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]},{"slug":"cofco","name":"COFCO Corporation","country":"CN","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.cofco.com/en/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/chinas-return-to-us-soybeans-may-reduce-demand-for-brazilian-supplies/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"US soybeans face a total import duty of 13%, compared with 3% for Brazilian soybeans. As a result, most current purchases of US soybeans are being made by state-owned companies COFCO and Sinograin."},"reasoning":"The report names COFCO, with Sinograin, as the main buyer of US soybeans under the 13 % duty that keeps private crushers out. Its individual volumes, ports of loading and freight terms are not shown; its interest in cheaper winter freight is inferred.","series_keys":["cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]},{"slug":"anec","name":"Associação Nacional dos Exportadores de Cereais (ANEC)","country":"BR","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://anec.com.br/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/anec-forecasts-a-10-mln-ton-reduction-in-brazilian-soybean-exports-to-china/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"Brazil’s national grain exporters association, ANEC, stated earlier this month that due to increased competition from the United States, Brazilian soybean exports to China are expected to decline by 10 million tons year-on-year to 77 million tons from 87 million tons in 2025."},"reasoning":"ANEC itself attributes an expected fall in Brazil's soybean exports to China to US competition, which puts Brazilian exporters on the other side of China's state buying. The forecast dates from January 2026 and is not updated here for the 2026/27 US commitments.","series_keys":["cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]},{"slug":"amaggi","name":"AMAGGI Exportação e Importação Ltda.","country":"BR","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.amaggi.com.br/en/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-shuttle-premium-whiplash-china-state-buying-record-crop-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.amaggi.com.br/en/areas-negocio/logistics-and-operations/","date":"2026-11-04","quote":"The waterway, road and rail transport of grains originated and the company's own production is carried out by AMAGGI Logistics and Operations."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Brazilian grain originator with its own river, road and rail logistics. That its China soybean sales compete with the US state-buying window is inferred from Brazil's share of China's imports; AMAGGI's China volumes are not shown.","series_keys":["cn-soybean-commitments-t"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"A northern-plains shuttle shipper holding a BNSF yearlong train from the 2026 programme (thirteen January-2027 trains at 1.3 million dollars on 23 September; sixty-five August-to-October-2026 trains at 1.4 to 1.5 million in March), a level the publisher's own history puts at 820,000 to 1.5 million per train since the fleet was cut to 140 in 2024 rather than at a doubling: with the 22 October 2026 secondary curve at 600 dollars per car for January to March 2027 and 175 to 212.5 for April to September, against a premium of 365 to 428 per car-trip at 2.7 planned to 2.3 reported turns, does it load the train with its own grain, resell the winter placements or cancel with the penalty, and what does it bid at BNSF's February to March 2027 auctions for 2027/28 trains?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"BNSF 2027 yearlong shuttle auction, average winning bid, 23 September 2026","value":1300000,"unit":"USD per shuttle train contract, 12 months from January 2027","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR09242026.pdf","source_date":"2026-09-24","quote":"BNSF sold the 13 shuttle train contracts for a combined $17.2 million, and winning bids averaged $1.3 million per shuttle contract.","note":"Weekly Highlights, page 2, 'BNSF Holds Shuttle and Direct DET Auctions for 2027'. The premium is paid for guaranteed yearlong shuttle service; tariff and fuel surcharge are paid on top of it on every trip. 17.2 million over 13 contracts gives 1.323 million; the GTR's rounded 1.3 million is kept. No machine-readable primary-auction dataset exists; the figure is a dated fact, not a series."},{"id":"K2","name":"BNSF January 2026 shuttle auction, average winning bid (prior year)","value":595000,"unit":"USD per shuttle train contract","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR09242026.pdf","source_date":"2026-09-24","quote":"This average was more than twice as much as last year’s auction results—when January 2026 shuttle auctions averaged $595,000 per shuttle train contract.","note":"Same highlight. Round 1 wrote that this was the only prior-year yearlong auction figure found in a primary source, after fetching the September and October issues of 2022 to 2025, and that the doubling rested on one comparison; that was true of those issues and wrong as a statement about the publisher. The yearlong auction history is in other weeks of the same GTR, fetched on 4 November 2026: 932,000 average over the six auctions for August 2024 to June 2025 starts (K28), 910,000 for second-quarter 2025 starts (K29), 820,000 for August to October 2025 starts (K30), about 1 million in February 2026 (K31, a relay), 1.4 million on 11 March and 1.5 million on 18 March 2026 for August to October 2026 starts (K32, K33). The 595,000 of the January 2026 starts is the low of that series; the 1.3 million of 23 September 2026 is 7 to 13 percent below the March 2026 auctions. 'More than twice' is true of the January starts and does not describe the programme."}],"constants_total":47,"constraints_total":9,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"September secondary shuttle spike","to":"23 September auction clearing price","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L2","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"auction week","to":"secondary deflation","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L3","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"secondary deflation","to":"holder's resale margin on a 2027 train","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L4","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"large 2026 crop","to":"rail pressure and shuttle scarcity","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L5","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"China's state buying","to":"December to March Pacific Northwest shuttle demand","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L6","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"January to March 2027 bids, turns and loadings","to":"the holder's decision: keep, resell or bid for more","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"BNSF's 140-shuttle programme since August 2024","to":"yearlong premium level of 820,000 to 1.5 million per train, 2024 to 2026","status":"CONSISTENT"}],"alternatives_total":5,"conjectures_total":4,"trajectories_total":1,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-04","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-04","constants":47,"constraints":9,"links":7,"untested":2,"contradicted":2,"alternatives":5,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. Premium emails send the latest analysis when you join and each new one after publication; their links last seven days and need a current subscription. Files you downloaded stay yours within each source licence; downloads and API access stop when the subscription ends"}}}