{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","title":"US Executive Order 14435: dyed diesel allowed on the highway without federal penalty, 1 October to 31 December 2026","date":"2026-10-05","mechanism":"REGULATION","geography":[{"code":"US","name":"United States (federal excise tax on diesel fuel)","latitude":null,"longitude":null}],"source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/09/2026-20855/emergency-tax-relief-on-diesel-fuel","summary":"Executive Order 14435 of 5 October 2026 (91 FR 64747, published 9 October) directs the Treasury to defer the taxes of 26 U.S.C. 4041(a)(1)(A) and 4041(b)(1)(B) incurred from 5 October to 31 December 2026 and the IRS to impose no penalty under 26 U.S.C. 6715(a)(1)-(2) when dyed diesel fuel is sold for use or used on the highway. IRS release IR-2026-122 of 14 October applies the penalty relief from 1 October to 31 December 2026, for federal tax purposes only; the IRS FAQ of 23 October states that it does not apply to federal taxes on clear diesel. The EIA on-highway diesel retail price, taxes included, stood at 6.199 USD/gal on 5 October, 6.179 on 12 October and 6.127 on 9 November 2026; US distillate stocks fell from 105,138 to 99,259 thousand barrels between 2 and 30 October.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":36,"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","key":"highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Monthly net receipts of the Highway Trust Fund (excise taxes), Monthly Treasury Statement table 4, line 'Highway Trust Fund', current month net receipts divided by 1,000,000","unit":"million USD","geography":"US","publisher":"us-treasury-fiscal-data","source_url":"https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_4?filter=record_date:gte:2023-10-01&page%5Bsize%5D=10000&sort=record_date,src_line_nbr","source_sha256":"0bba7f47ba884933b640867b28b98cc6d59a14ecb20bc8ac388419c6e40231ba","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:45:37+00:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","publisher_name":"U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service — Fiscal Data","licence":"U.S. federal government work (17 U.S.C. §105). 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(<date>)\".","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W08","value":2.74},{"period":"2026-W09","value":2.847},{"period":"2026-W10","value":3.158},{"period":"2026-W11","value":4.197},{"period":"2026-W12","value":4.229},{"period":"2026-W13","value":4.8},{"period":"2026-W14","value":4.711},{"period":"2026-W41","value":5.025},{"period":"2026-W42","value":5.22},{"period":"2026-W43","value":5.323},{"period":"2026-W44","value":5.318},{"period":"2026-W45","value":5.1}]}],"edition":{"title":"US dyed-diesel order: the federal tax stays in the pump price, and East Coast distillate stocks rose through October","lead":"Executive Order 14435 lifts federal penalties on highway use of dyed diesel until 31 December 2026 and leaves the 24.4 cents of federal tax inside the price of clear diesel. The taxed pump price moved from 6.199 to 6.179 USD per gallon in the first week, 0.020 against a relief of 0.243 on a dyed gallon, and East Coast distillate stocks rose from 21,687 to 22,551 thousand barrels in October.","published_at":"2026-11-12","vectors":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W39","value":6.529},{"id":"F2","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W40","value":6.382},{"id":"F3","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W41","value":6.199},{"id":"F4","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":6.179},{"id":"F5","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":6.352},{"id":"F6","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W46","value":6.127},{"id":"F7","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W41","value":3.711},{"id":"F8","series":"us-heating-oil-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W41","value":6.05},{"id":"F9","series":"us-heating-oil-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":6.23},{"id":"F10","series":"us-heating-oil-residential-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W45","value":6.138},{"id":"F11","series":"us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W41","value":5.025},{"id":"F12","series":"us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":5.323},{"id":"F13","series":"us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W45","value":5.1},{"id":"F14","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W41","value":0.149},{"id":"F15","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":0.041},{"id":"F16","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W45","value":0.154},{"id":"F17","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W49","value":0.018},{"id":"F18","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2024-W47","value":0.018},{"id":"F19","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W52","value":-0.103},{"id":"F20","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2024-W49","value":0.049},{"id":"F21","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-0.385},{"id":"F22","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"max","period":null,"value":0.156},{"id":"F23","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W40","value":105138},{"id":"F24","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":99259},{"id":"F25","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W40","value":121559},{"id":"F26","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W44","value":111546},{"id":"F28","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W44","value":115809},{"id":"F29","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W52","value":123679},{"id":"F30","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W52","value":122867},{"id":"F31","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W13","value":117825},{"id":"F32","series":"us-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W17","value":103638},{"id":"F33","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W40","value":21687},{"id":"F34","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":22551},{"id":"F35","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W40","value":30187},{"id":"F36","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W44","value":26369},{"id":"F37","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W40","value":33625},{"id":"F38","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W44","value":32219},{"id":"F39","series":"us-distillate-stocks-over-500ppm-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W40","value":6963},{"id":"F40","series":"us-distillate-stocks-over-500ppm-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":7128},{"id":"F41","series":"us-distillate-stocks-0-15ppm-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":88184},{"id":"F42","series":"us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W37","value":3501},{"id":"F43","series":"us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W38","value":3975},{"id":"F44","series":"us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W39","value":3948},{"id":"F45","series":"us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W40","value":3650},{"id":"F46","series":"us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W41","value":4323},{"id":"F47","series":"us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W42","value":3732},{"id":"F48","series":"us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":4207},{"id":"F49","series":"us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":4439},{"id":"F66","series":"highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","stat":"value","period":"2025-10","value":783.754},{"id":"F67","series":"highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","stat":"value","period":"2024-10","value":1138.819},{"id":"F68","series":"highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","stat":"value","period":"2023-10","value":1062.679},{"id":"F69","series":"highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":6319.535},{"id":"F74","series":"highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","stat":"value","period":"2025-11","value":3873.795},{"id":"F75","series":"highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","stat":"value","period":"2025-12","value":3876.546},{"id":"F78","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W36","value":5.599},{"id":"F80","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2025-W48","value":28774},{"id":"F81","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2024-W48","value":34868},{"id":"F82","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W04","value":34486},{"id":"F83","series":"padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","stat":"value","period":"2026-W08","value":25617},{"id":"F84","series":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","stat":"min","period":null,"value":3.451},{"id":"F85","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":0.067},{"id":"F86","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":0.122},{"id":"F87","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W44","value":0.121},{"id":"F88","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W45","value":0.121},{"id":"F89","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2024-W44","value":0.091},{"id":"F90","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2024-W45","value":0.05},{"id":"F91","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W01","value":-0.147},{"id":"F92","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2024-W51","value":-0.04},{"id":"F93","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2024-W52","value":-0.074},{"id":"F94","series":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2025-W48","value":0.043},{"id":"F95","series":"us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","stat":"value","period":"2026-W44","value":5.318}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Road diesel minus residential heating oil, EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026, read on 2 December 2026","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPGw.xls"},{"indicator":"IRS news releases and dyed diesel FAQ: prolongation, grace period or run-off text, section 7508A determination, by 31 December 2026","source_url":"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/news-releases-for-current-month"},{"indicator":"Federal Register documents on dyed diesel, and the White House presidential-actions page, re-read on 4 January 2027","source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=%22dyed+diesel%22"},{"indicator":"EIA on-highway diesel price, Monday surveys of 21 December 2026, 4 January 2027 and 4 October 2027","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"spread-low-at-or-below-minus-0-05","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"The lowest value of road diesel minus residential heating oil over the EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026 is at or below minus 0.05 USD per gallon in any one week. The branch is defined by the gap alone. Read beside it, not defining the branch: on the survey of that low, residential heating oil against 6.138 and wholesale heating oil against 5.100 USD per gallon, their values of 2 November. With both at or above, the low is read as heating oil gaining at retail. With the low at or below minus 0.05 and either price under its value, the branch still holds and the low is read as taxed diesel falling faster than a lagging residential price: a pass-through reading with no information on the order. Reading rule: the values as they stand in the two EIA workbooks on Wednesday 2 December 2026; if one of the four prints is absent on 4 December the reading is made on three and says so, with fewer than three it is void; a later revision is recorded beside the reading and does not change it. On the same weeks of 2012 to 2025, with no relief in force, the low was at or below minus 0.05 in 1 year of 14 (2022), between minus 0.05 and 0.10 in 10, and at or above 0.10 in 3 (2014, 2020, 2021). The reading does not attribute its result to the order: weather, retail pass-through, state tax suspensions and supply into the Northeast move the same gap, and dyed and clear diesel leave the same terminal tank.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Lowest value of road diesel (taxes included) minus residential heating oil (no tax), EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026, as of 2 December 2026","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":-0.05}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: residential heating oil price on the survey of the low, against 6.138 USD per gallon","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-heating-oil-residential-usd-gal","threshold":null},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: wholesale heating oil price on the survey of the low, against 5.100 USD per gallon","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/W_EPD2F_PWR_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","threshold":null},{"name":"EIA on-highway diesel price, the taxed leg of the gap, same surveys","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-02","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"spread-low-between-minus-0-05-and-0-10","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"The lowest value of road diesel minus residential heating oil over the EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026 is above minus 0.05 and below 0.10 USD per gallon, the band that contains the lows of 2024 and 2025 (0.018) and any crossing of zero of ordinary size. Reading rule: the values as they stand in the two EIA workbooks on Wednesday 2 December 2026; if one of the four prints is absent on 4 December the reading is made on three and says so, with fewer than three it is void; a later revision is recorded beside the reading and does not change it. On the same weeks of 2012 to 2025, with no relief in force, the low was at or below minus 0.05 in 1 year of 14 (2022), between minus 0.05 and 0.10 in 10, and at or above 0.10 in 3 (2014, 2020, 2021). A reading in this band carries no information on the order in either direction.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"HIGH","indicators":[{"name":"Lowest value of road diesel (taxes included) minus residential heating oil (no tax), EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026, as of 2 December 2026, lower bound","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":">","value":-0.05}},{"name":"Lowest value of road diesel (taxes included) minus residential heating oil (no tax), EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026, as of 2 December 2026, upper bound","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":"<","value":0.1}},{"name":"EIA on-highway diesel price, the taxed leg of the gap, same surveys","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-02","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"spread-low-at-or-above-0-10","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"Road diesel minus residential heating oil is at or above 0.10 USD per gallon on all four EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026: heating oil loses ground on road diesel while the relief is in force, the direction of the EIA outlook of 10 November 2026. Reading rule: the values as they stand in the two EIA workbooks on Wednesday 2 December 2026; if one of the four prints is absent on 4 December the reading is made on three and says so, with fewer than three it is void; a later revision is recorded beside the reading and does not change it. On the same weeks of 2012 to 2025, with no relief in force, the low was at or below minus 0.05 in 1 year of 14 (2022), between minus 0.05 and 0.10 in 10, and at or above 0.10 in 3 (2014, 2020, 2021). The reading does not attribute its result to the order: weather, retail pass-through, state tax suspensions and supply into the Northeast move the same gap, and dyed and clear diesel leave the same terminal tank.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Lowest value of road diesel (taxes included) minus residential heating oil (no tax), EIA Monday surveys of 9, 16, 23 and 30 November 2026, as of 2 December 2026","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/W_EPD2F_PRS_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":">=","value":0.1}},{"name":"EIA on-highway diesel price, the taxed leg of the gap, same surveys","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-02","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"penalty-relief-prolonged-beyond-31-december-2026","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"At least one text at any of the three addresses (IRS, Federal Register, White House presidential actions) moves the end of the federal penalty relief on highway use of dyed diesel (or of the non-enforcement) beyond 31 December 2026, whatever the price. Reading rule: texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026, read on 31 December 2026 and again on 4 January 2027 at three addresses, the IRS newsroom (news releases of the month and the dyed diesel FAQ), the Federal Register (search 'dyed diesel') and the White House presidential-actions page; a text signed by 31 December and carried by that page alone on 4 January 2027 counts. An early end or a narrowing of the relief by a Treasury text or a court is outside the three branches. Read beside the decision and not defining it: the EIA on-highway price of Monday 21 December 2026 against 6.199 and against the EIA outlook mean for December, 5.792; and any text under section 7508A, which settles the tax of the period and not the penalty.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"IRS news releases and dyed diesel FAQ: number of texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026 that move the end of the penalty relief beyond 31 December 2026; one text at any of the three addresses meets the branch","source_url":"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/news-releases-for-current-month","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Federal Register, search 'dyed diesel': number of documents dated 13 November to 31 December 2026 that move the end of the penalty relief beyond 31 December 2026; one text at any of the three addresses meets the branch","source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=%22dyed+diesel%22","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"White House presidential actions: number of texts signed 13 November to 31 December 2026 that move the end of the penalty relief beyond 31 December 2026; one text at any of the three addresses meets the branch","source_url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside the decision, not defining the branch: EIA on-highway diesel price, Monday survey of 21 December 2026, against 6.199 and 5.792","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-04","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"grace-period-or-run-off-text-without-prolongation","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"At least one text at any of the three addresses (IRS, Federal Register, White House presidential actions) grants a grace period, a run-off of stored fuel or another measure on residual dye, while the end of the federal penalty relief stays at 31 December 2026 (no text moves it). Reading rule: texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026, read on 31 December 2026 and again on 4 January 2027 at three addresses, the IRS newsroom (news releases of the month and the dyed diesel FAQ), the Federal Register (search 'dyed diesel') and the White House presidential-actions page; a text signed by 31 December and carried by that page alone on 4 January 2027 counts. An early end or a narrowing of the relief by a Treasury text or a court is outside the three branches. Read beside the decision and not defining it: the EIA on-highway price of Monday 21 December 2026 against 6.199 and against the EIA outlook mean for December, 5.792; and any text under section 7508A, which settles the tax of the period and not the penalty.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"IRS news releases and dyed diesel FAQ: number of texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026 that grant a grace period, a run-off of stored fuel or another measure on residual dye, with no text moving the end of the relief; one text at any of the three addresses meets the branch","source_url":"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/news-releases-for-current-month","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Federal Register, search 'dyed diesel': number of documents dated 13 November to 31 December 2026 that grant a grace period, a run-off of stored fuel or another measure on residual dye, with no text moving the end of the relief; one text at any of the three addresses meets the branch","source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=%22dyed+diesel%22","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"White House presidential actions: number of texts signed 13 November to 31 December 2026 that grant a grace period, a run-off of stored fuel or another measure on residual dye, with no text moving the end of the relief; one text at any of the three addresses meets the branch","source_url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside the decision, not defining the branch: EIA on-highway diesel price, Monday survey of 21 December 2026, against 6.199 and 5.792","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-04","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"no-relief-text-by-31-december-2026","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"No IRS or Federal Register text, and no presidential action, either moves the end of the federal penalty relief beyond 31 December 2026 or grants a grace period, a run-off of stored fuel or another measure on residual dye: the relief ends on 31 December 2026 as written, and the penalty of 26 U.S.C. 6715 applies again on 1 January 2027. Reading rule: texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026, read on 31 December 2026 and again on 4 January 2027 at three addresses, the IRS newsroom (news releases of the month and the dyed diesel FAQ), the Federal Register (search 'dyed diesel') and the White House presidential-actions page; a text signed by 31 December and carried by that page alone on 4 January 2027 counts. An early end or a narrowing of the relief by a Treasury text or a court is outside the three branches. Read beside the decision and not defining it: the EIA on-highway price of Monday 21 December 2026 against 6.199 and against the EIA outlook mean for December, 5.792; and any text under section 7508A, which settles the tax of the period and not the penalty.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"IRS news releases and dyed diesel FAQ: number of texts dated 13 November to 31 December 2026 that move the end of the penalty relief or grant a grace period, run-off or other measure on residual dye","source_url":"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/news-releases-for-current-month","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"Federal Register, search 'dyed diesel': number of documents dated 13 November to 31 December 2026 that move the end of the penalty relief or grant a grace period, run-off or other measure on residual dye","source_url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/search?conditions%5Bterm%5D=%22dyed+diesel%22","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"White House presidential actions: number of texts signed 13 November to 31 December 2026 that move the end of the penalty relief or grant a grace period, run-off or other measure on residual dye","source_url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside the decision, not defining the branch: EIA on-highway diesel price, Monday survey of 21 December 2026, against 6.199 and 5.792","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-01-04","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"price-at-or-above-6-199-on-4-october-2027","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"The EIA on-highway diesel price, taxes included, on the Monday survey of 4 October 2027 is at or above 6.199 USD per gallon, its level on the day the order was signed, 1.34 above the EIA outlook mean for October 2027 (4.859, outlook of 10 November 2026). A return of the relief at that level would be a decision, not a consequence of the print. Reading rule: that single print as it stands in the EIA workbook on Wednesday 6 October 2027; if the survey is absent the reading is void. Watched beside it and not scored, read at the Federal Register, the IRS newsroom and Congress by 31 December 2027: a section 7508A text or a statute settling the tax of October to December 2026, a federal dyed-fuel relief issued on another trigger, and a text stating that on-road inspections have resumed. None of them is a consequence of the price.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"EIA on-highway diesel price, Monday survey of 4 October 2027, as of 6 October 2027","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":">=","value":6.199}}],"horizon_date":"2027-10-06","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"price-from-4-859-to-below-6-199-on-4-october-2027","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"The EIA on-highway diesel price, taxes included, on the Monday survey of 4 October 2027 is at or above 4.859 USD per gallon, the EIA outlook mean for October 2027 (outlook of 10 November 2026), and below 6.199, its level on the day the order was signed. Reading rule: that single print as it stands in the EIA workbook on Wednesday 6 October 2027; if the survey is absent the reading is void. Watched beside it and not scored, read at the Federal Register, the IRS newsroom and Congress by 31 December 2027: a section 7508A text or a statute settling the tax of October to December 2026, a federal dyed-fuel relief issued on another trigger, and a text stating that on-road inspections have resumed. None of them is a consequence of the price.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"EIA on-highway diesel price, Monday survey of 4 October 2027, as of 6 October 2027, lower bound","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":">=","value":4.859}},{"name":"EIA on-highway diesel price, Monday survey of 4 October 2027, as of 6 October 2027, upper bound","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":"<","value":6.199}}],"horizon_date":"2027-10-06","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"price-below-4-859-on-4-october-2027","signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","statement":"The EIA on-highway diesel price, taxes included, on the Monday survey of 4 October 2027 is below 4.859 USD per gallon, the EIA outlook mean for October 2027 (outlook of 10 November 2026). Marker inside the branch: at or below 3.711, the survey of 6 October 2025, the rise of 2026 is fully reversed. Reading rule: that single print as it stands in the EIA workbook on Wednesday 6 October 2027; if the survey is absent the reading is void. Watched beside it and not scored, read at the Federal Register, the IRS newsroom and Congress by 31 December 2027: a section 7508A text or a statute settling the tax of October to December 2026, a federal dyed-fuel relief issued on another trigger, and a text stating that on-road inspections have resumed. None of them is a consequence of the price.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"EIA on-highway diesel price, Monday survey of 4 October 2027, as of 6 October 2027","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPGw.xls","series_key":"us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","threshold":{"op":"<","value":4.859}}],"horizon_date":"2027-10-06","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"natso","name":"NATSO, Inc. (National Association of Truck Stop Operators)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.natso.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.freightwaves.com/news/red-dye-diesel-break-is-being-greeted-with-a-big-yawn","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Selling dyed fuel at scale requires dedicated equipment and enough dyed supply at the rack,” the group said in a note to its membership. “Neither marketers nor commercial trucking companies are eager for the supply chain to reconfigure itself in order to accomplish this."},"reasoning":"The truck-stop association told its members, in an advisory quoted by FreightWaves after the order, that selling dyed fuel at scale needs dedicated equipment and rack supply and that marketers are not eager to reconfigure. This shows the retail side declining to open the dyed pool to highway lanes; how many individual truck stops nevertheless sell dyed fuel is not shown.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"sigma-fuel-marketers","name":"SIGMA: America's Leading Fuel Marketers (Society of Independent Gasoline Marketers of America)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.sigma.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/10/07/tax-free-red-dyed-diesel-order-unlikely-to-stem-red-ink-from-high-prices/191219/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"“The White House appears to be trying to encourage the supply chain to move toward selling dyed fuel in non-traditional ways,” they said. “We do not expect most reputable diesel retailers and fuel marketers to do this.”"},"reasoning":"The fuel marketers' association states in a member notice quoted on 7 October 2026 that it does not expect most diesel retailers and marketers to sell dyed fuel for highway use. The statement is an expectation issued two days after the order; actual sales of dyed fuel by its members are not measured by any series.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"energy-marketers-of-america","name":"Energy Marketers of America","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.energymarketersofamerica.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://tanktransport.com/2026/10/dyed-diesel-relief/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Energy Marketers of America’s October 6 regulatory alert raised implementation and liability questions before the IRS announcement. Its distinction between deferral and forgiveness remains relevant"},"reasoning":"The trade press reports that the federation of state fuel-marketer associations issued a regulatory alert on 6 October 2026 on the liability of sellers under the order. Its members distribute both motor and heating fuels, so they sit between the taxed and the untaxed pool; the alert itself was not read here, only its description by Tank Transport.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"nefi","name":"National Energy & Fuels Institute, Inc. (NEFI)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://nefi.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://nefi.com/news-publications/recent-news/irs-issues-recordkeeping-relief-on-use-of-dyed-diesel-fuel","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Finally, NEFI advises that dealers should continue to collect the tax for any on-road use and keep records of all such sales, including deliveries to fleet or farm tanks."},"reasoning":"The association of heating-fuel distributors instructs its dealers on sales of dyed fuel for on-road use, including deliveries to fleet tanks, and warns them not to guarantee heating oil as a highway fuel. This shows heating-oil dealers facing on-road requests and a tax liability that is deferred, not forgiven; that such sales reduce the supply available to heating customers is not shown, and East Coast stocks rose in October.","series_keys":["us-heating-oil-residential-usd-gal","us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"connecticut-energy-marketers-association","name":"Connecticut Energy Marketers Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ctema.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ctpublic.org/news/2026-10-28/ct-fuel-industry-warns-of-tight-supplies-and-rising-costs-ahead-of-winter","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Connecticut households are heading into winter facing heating oil prices above $6 a gallon, roughly $2.78 more than at the same time last year"},"reasoning":"The Connecticut heating-oil dealers' association describes, on 28 October 2026, heating oil above 6 USD a gallon and dealers financing fuel before delivery, with diesel named as a compounding pressure. The article does not mention the executive order; that highway use of dyed fuel adds to the pressure on its members is inferred from heating oil and dyed diesel being one distillate pool.","series_keys":["us-heating-oil-residential-usd-gal","padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"american-trucking-associations","name":"American Trucking Associations","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.trucking.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ttnews.com/articles/trump-order-dyed-diesel-highway","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"“Dyed diesel also comes from the same underlying supply, so expanding its highway use does not create additional fuel or address the underlying supply crunch that is driving prices higher,” he said."},"reasoning":"The carriers' federation states that dyed diesel comes from the same supply and that the order gives penalty relief and a possible deferral, not forgiveness. Its interstate members buy clear diesel on which the rack tax is unchanged; the direction is read as exposed because they carry the compliance questions without a lower pump price, which the retail series confirms so far.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","us-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"ooida","name":"Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.ooida.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.freightwaves.com/news/red-dye-diesel-break-is-being-greeted-with-a-big-yawn","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"“OOIDA believes allowing the wider use of red-dyed diesel will provide minimal relief,” he said. “Market stability is essential to bring down costs for the long haul.”"},"reasoning":"The owner-operators' association states that wider use of dyed diesel gives minimal relief. Independent drivers fuel at retail highway lanes, which mostly do not dispense dyed fuel, so they keep paying the taxed price while operators with bulk dyed storage may not; the competitive effect between the two groups is inferred and not measured.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"nebraska-trucking-association","name":"Nebraska Trucking Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.nebtrucking.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trucking-industry-doubts-trumps-diesel-order-will-dial-down-fuel-prices","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"The Nebraska Trucking Association, representing roughly 900 companies, cautioned members and partners not to fill up with the untaxed, tinted diesel fuel, the Nebraska Examiner reported."},"reasoning":"The state association advised its member carriers not to use dyed fuel, in the state where the order was signed and where state relief is limited to agricultural movements. This shows carriers staying on taxed fuel by choice; the reported reason (deferred tax, residual dye) is taken from the same article and the volume forgone is not measured.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"truckload-carriers-association","name":"Truckload Carriers Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://truckload.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.truckingdive.com/news/trump-orders-expanded-use-of-tax-free-dyed-diesel/832293/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Trucking groups including the ATA, Truckload Carriers Association and National Tank Truck Carriers previously warned diesel tax relief could affect public infrastructure funding and said tax relief, collected at the wholesale level, can fail to meaningfully benefit the end consumer."},"reasoning":"The quote reports an earlier warning by the association on diesel tax relief in general, made before the order. That its long-haul members cannot practically use dyed fuel across state lines, and so stay on taxed diesel, is inferred from the state-by-state rules; no statement by the association on the order itself was read.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd"]}]},{"slug":"national-tank-truck-carriers","name":"National Tank Truck Carriers","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.tanktruck.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.truckingdive.com/news/trump-orders-expanded-use-of-tax-free-dyed-diesel/832293/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Trucking groups including the ATA, Truckload Carriers Association and National Tank Truck Carriers previously warned diesel tax relief could affect public infrastructure funding and said tax relief, collected at the wholesale level, can fail to meaningfully benefit the end consumer."},"reasoning":"The quote reports an earlier warning by the tank-truck carriers' association on diesel tax relief in general. Its members haul dyed and clear distillate from terminals to bulk plants, farms and fleets, so any shift of volume toward dyed fuel passes through them; that shift is inferred and no series separates dyed from clear deliveries.","series_keys":["us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd"]}]},{"slug":"werner-enterprises","name":"Werner Enterprises, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 484121 General freight trucking, long-distance, truckload","website":"https://www.werner.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://werner.com/about/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Today, we are one of the largest truckload carriers in North America."},"reasoning":"The company page shows a large interstate truckload carrier based in Nebraska. That it stays on taxed clear diesel is inferred from the multi-state routes on which federal relief does not make dyed fuel legal under state law; the company has made no statement on the order that was read here, and it is not shown to be worse off than before the order, only not relieved.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"american-farm-bureau-federation","name":"American Farm Bureau Federation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.fb.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fb.org/news-release/farmers-grateful-for-diesel-tax-relief","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Allowing dyed diesel fuel to be used over-the-road will bring welcome relief for farmers because every cent per gallon matters when you're running a fleet of grain trucks or hauling cattle hundreds of miles."},"reasoning":"The farm federation welcomes the order for farmers who run their own grain or cattle trucks, the users who already hold dyed fuel in farm tanks. The gain is stated by the beneficiary's own association and is not measured; the deferred tax may still fall due, a point the federation's release does not address.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"american-soybean-association","name":"American Soybean Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://soygrowers.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/equipment/article/2026/10/06/trump-orders-temporary-relief-dyed","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"In a statement, ASA said it \"urges the administration to ensure farmers do not have to pay future deferred taxes for fuel use and are held harmless for residual dyed diesel that may remain in fuel tanks following the expiration of this Order on Dec. 31, 2026.\""},"reasoning":"The growers' association names two liabilities left on farmers who use the relief: deferred tax that may be called later and residual dye in truck tanks after 31 December 2026. It also warned on road funding; the IRS has since announced reporting relief and is considering a grace period, so the size of the remaining liability is not established.","series_keys":["highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"chs-inc","name":"CHS Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 324110 Petroleum refineries; NAICS 424720 Petroleum products merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.chsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.chsinc.com/products-and-services/energy","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"CHS operates petroleum refineries and pipelines and manufactures, markets and distributes Cenex® brand refined fuels, lubricants, propane, renewable energy products and energy equipment."},"reasoning":"The page shows a farmer-owned cooperative that refines and distributes Cenex diesel, including the dyed farm grade sold by local cooperatives. The order asks the Agriculture Department to work with cooperatives so that dyed diesel stays available to farmers; that highway demand competes with CHS's farm customers is inferred, and as a seller it could equally gain volume, which is not shown either way.","series_keys":["us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","us-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"growmark","name":"GROWMARK, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.growmark.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.growmark.com/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"From agricultural inputs to energy supply and logistics support, we deliver integrated solutions that keep farms, fleets, and facilities running efficiently."},"reasoning":"The page shows a regional cooperative supplying fuels to farms and fleets through member cooperatives. Its duty to keep farm tanks supplied while dyed fuel becomes usable by any truck is inferred from that business; no statement by the cooperative on the order was read and no series measures dyed-fuel deliveries.","series_keys":["us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","us-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"mfa-oil","name":"MFA Oil Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers","website":"https://www.mfaoil.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.mfaoil.com/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"You’ve been able to rely on MFA Oil to deliver high-quality propane, fuel, oil and lubricants for nine decades. We know farmers’ needs because we’re farmers ourselves—all 40,000 of us."},"reasoning":"The page shows a farmer-owned fuel cooperative delivering bulk fuel in Missouri and neighbouring states, where state relief on dyed diesel was also granted. That non-farm buyers draw on the dyed fuel it delivers to members is inferred; the cooperative is not quoted on the order and the pull is not shown in the data.","series_keys":["us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","us-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"frontier-cooperative","name":"Frontier Cooperative Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers; NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers","website":"https://www.frontiercooperative.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.frontiercooperative.com/energy","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Get the most out of your equipment by using our premium diesel fuels: Ruby Fieldmaster, which is dyed for off road use, and Roadmaster for highway use."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Nebraska cooperative that delivers bulk dyed diesel alongside highway diesel. The truck-stop association wrote that the order lets agricultural businesses with their own bulk dyed storage put that fuel into trucks during harvest; that this cooperative and its members do so, and the saving obtained, are inferred and not stated by the cooperative.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"aurora-cooperative","name":"Aurora Cooperative Elevator Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers; NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers","website":"https://www.auroracoop.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://auroracoop.com/products-services/energy/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Located strategically at our bulk sites, we provide easy access to high-quality ethanol blends including E15, E30, and E85, as well as premium diesel fuel, catering to the your diverse needs."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Nebraska grain and energy cooperative with bulk fuel sites and Cenex farm diesel. A business that holds dyed fuel in bulk and moves grain by truck is the case the order serves under Nebraska's agricultural relief; the cooperative does not say that it fuels trucks with dyed diesel, so the gain is inferred.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal","us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd"]}]},{"slug":"mansfield-energy","name":"Mansfield Energy Corp.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers","website":"https://mansfield.energy/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://mansfield.energy/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"For vehicles, mobile equipment and stationary tanks. Fuel delivered where and when you need it."},"reasoning":"The page shows a national supplier delivering fuel to fleet vehicles and stationary tanks, the channel through which a fleet with its own storage could take dyed diesel. That its customers ask for dyed fuel for highway use, and that it supplies it, is inferred; the IRS states that sellers need not document end use, and no sales figure is published.","series_keys":["us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"reladyne","name":"RelaDyne LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers","website":"https://reladyne.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://reladyne.com/richardoil/products/fuel/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Whether you need on-site fleet fueling or help monitoring wholesale gasoline prices to make the most of your fuel budget, Richard Oil and Fuel, a RelaDyne Company delivers Louisiana’s best gasoline distribution services."},"reasoning":"The page shows a distributor offering on-site fleet fueling in Louisiana, a state with its own dyed-diesel order for farm and timber vehicles. That it delivers dyed fuel into fleet tanks for road use is inferred from that service; the company is not quoted on the order.","series_keys":["us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"sprague","name":"Sprague Operating Resources LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424710 Petroleum bulk stations and terminals","website":"https://www.spragueenergy.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.spragueenergy.com/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Sprague delivers hundreds of millions of gallons annually from our strategic terminals, offering top-tier service, market insights, hedging plans, and an advanced online tool for you and your customers."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Northeast terminal operator supplying distillate to heating-oil dealers and commercial accounts. It stands at the rack where dyed and clear fuel separate; whether highway demand for dyed fuel raises its volumes or forces allocation among heating customers is not shown, and East Coast stocks rose over the first four weeks.","series_keys":["padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"global-partners","name":"Global Partners LP","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424710 Petroleum bulk stations and terminals","website":"https://www.globalp.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.globalp.com/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Global Partners is a leading independent owner, supplier, and operator of liquid energy terminals, fueling locations, and retail experiences."},"reasoning":"The page shows a terminal owner and wholesaler that began in heating oil in Boston and also runs retail fuel sites. It supplies both the heating-oil pool and taxed road diesel in the Northeast; the effect of the order on its volumes or margins is inferred as possible and is not shown.","series_keys":["padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"petro-home-services","name":"Petroleum Heat and Power Co., Inc. (Petro Home Services, a Star Group, L.P. company)","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers","website":"https://www.petro.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.petro.com/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Go with Petro for better savings, worry-free delivery, flexible pricing plans, monthly budget plan and a guaranteed oil supply, so you’ll never run out."},"reasoning":"The page shows a residential heating-oil distributor that promises supply and fixed or budget pricing to households. If highway users bid for the same dyed distillate, a dealer bound by such plans carries the cost; that this happens is inferred, the wholesale heating-oil price rose for two weeks after the order and then came back.","series_keys":["us-heating-oil-residential-usd-gal","us-heating-oil-wholesale-usd-gal","us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal","padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"dead-river-company","name":"Dead River Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 454310 Fuel dealers","website":"https://www.deadriver.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.deadriver.com/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"From providing propane and heating oil deliveries to heating equipment installation and maintenance, Dead River Company is here and ready when you need us."},"reasoning":"The page shows a New England heating-oil and propane distributor. Its exposure to a pull on the dyed distillate pool is inferred from that business and from its region, where heating oil is the main use of dyed fuel; nothing read shows a supply shortfall or a statement by the company.","series_keys":["us-heating-oil-residential-usd-gal","padd1-distillate-stocks-kbbl","us-diesel-minus-heating-oil-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"loves-travel-stops","name":"Love's Travel Stops & Country Stores, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 447190 Other gasoline stations (truck stops)","website":"https://www.loves.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.loves.com/about-us","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Love’s provides professional truck drivers and motorists with 24-hour access to clean and safe places to purchase gasoline, diesel fuel, fresh coffee"},"reasoning":"The page shows a national truck-stop network selling taxed diesel to professional drivers. Analysts quoted after the order say most truck-stop highway lanes do not dispense dyed fuel, so the chain competes with untaxed gallons sold by farm suppliers and bulk plants; any loss of volume is inferred and the retail price shows no step.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"travelcenters-of-america","name":"TravelCenters of America Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 447190 Other gasoline stations (truck stops)","website":"https://www.ta-petro.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ta-petro.com/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Sign up today and enjoy a one-card solution for fuel, truck service, DEF, cash, ATM, scales, showers, and parking across 16,000 truck stops."},"reasoning":"The page shows a truck-stop operator selling commercial diesel under fleet card programmes. Its lanes sell clear fuel on which the rack tax is unchanged; that some fleet gallons move to dyed fuel bought elsewhere is inferred from the order and is not measured.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"federal-highway-administration","name":"Federal Highway Administration","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 926120 Regulation and administration of transportation programs","website":"https://highways.dot.gov/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/olsp/fundingfederalaid/07.cfm","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"The Federal government does not directly collect from the consumer most of the excise taxes credited to the HTF. Instead, these taxes are typically paid to the Internal Revenue Service by the producer or importer of the taxable product"},"reasoning":"The agency's own account shows that the fuel taxes credited to the Highway Trust Fund are mostly paid upstream, which the order leaves untouched. The fund's monthly line is a transfer made on Treasury estimates and adjusted later (26 U.S.C. 9601), so the statement cannot show the relief; a shortfall on gallons that move from clear to dyed fuel is inferred and would reach the fund only through a later adjustment of those estimates. October 2026 receipts were not yet available at collection.","series_keys":["highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd"]}]},{"slug":"aashto","name":"American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://transportation.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://transportation.org/about/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"AASHTO is a nonprofit, nonpartisan association representing highway and transportation departments in the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico."},"reasoning":"The page shows the association of the state transportation departments, which receive federal-aid funds from the Highway Trust Fund and state fuel-tax revenue. A loss of receipts if gallons shift to dyed fuel, and if states mirror the relief, is inferred; no statement by the association on the order was found.","series_keys":["highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd"]}]},{"slug":"national-asphalt-pavement-association","name":"National Asphalt Pavement Association","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.asphaltpavement.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/10/07/tax-free-red-dyed-diesel-order-unlikely-to-stem-red-ink-from-high-prices/191219/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"“Fuel taxes provide vital, dedicated funding for our nation’s roads and bridges. Reducing that revenue would undermine investment in the infrastructure Americans depend on,”"},"reasoning":"The paving contractors' association is quoted in an article on the order, two days after it, stating that lower fuel-tax revenue would undermine road investment. Its members are paid from programmes funded by the Highway Trust Fund; whether receipts actually fall is not yet observable.","series_keys":["highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd"]}]},{"slug":"internal-revenue-service","name":"Internal Revenue Service","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 921130 Public finance activities","website":"https://www.irs.gov/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-provides-dyed-diesel-fuel-relief-related-to-excise-tax-following-president-trumps-executive-order","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"All IRS Fuel Compliance Officers will be re-assigned other responsibilities, and no federal inspections of on-road dyed fuel usage will occur."},"reasoning":"The tax authority that applies the order states that inspections of dyed fuel on the road stop for the relief period. It decides the open points: the postponement under section 7508A, the date any deferred tax falls due and a grace period for residual dye, none of which was found as issued on 12 November 2026.","series_keys":["highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd","us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"us-department-of-agriculture","name":"U.S. Department of Agriculture","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 926140 Regulation of agricultural marketing and commodities","website":"https://www.usda.gov/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/10/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-promotes-diesel-affordability/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"The Order directs the Secretary of Agriculture to ensure farmers’ access to dyed diesel in high-demand areas, and to encourage corresponding action by States."},"reasoning":"The White House fact sheet shows the department charged with keeping dyed diesel available to farmers while its use is opened to the highway. The instruction implies that competition for the dyed pool was foreseen; what the department did with cooperatives and distributors was not read.","series_keys":["us-distillate-product-supplied-kbd","us-distillate-stocks-kbbl"]}]},{"slug":"texas-comptroller-of-public-accounts","name":"Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 921130 Public finance activities","website":"https://comptroller.texas.gov/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://nationalaglawcenter.org/recent-changes-to-dyed-diesel-regulations/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"However, it does not waive the 20 cents per gallon tax owed on dyed diesel used in a taxable (on highway) manner, as required under Texas Tax Code Section 162.203. The Comptroller continues to explore options for how taxpayers can remit the tax due."},"reasoning":"The National Agricultural Law Center quotes the state tax authority: Texas lets dyed diesel on the highway but keeps its 20-cent tax due. This shows a state where the federal relief does not make the gallon tax-free; how the state tax will be collected on dyed fuel was still open in the text read.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"north-carolina-department-of-revenue","name":"North Carolina Department of Revenue","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 921130 Public finance activities","website":"https://www.ncdor.gov/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://nationalaglawcenter.org/recent-changes-to-dyed-diesel-regulations/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"However, on October 1, 2026, the North Carolina Department of Revenue announced that it would be suspending penalties on the use and sale of dyed diesel until December 31, 2026."},"reasoning":"The National Agricultural Law Center reports that the state revenue department suspended its own penalties on dyed diesel from 1 October 2026, before the federal order. The department's notice itself was not opened; the effect on North Carolina motor-fuel tax receipts is not shown.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"louisiana-dotd","name":"Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 926120 Regulation and administration of transportation programs","website":"https://dotd.la.gov/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trucking-industry-doubts-trumps-diesel-order-will-dial-down-fuel-prices","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Louisiana State Police and the state transportation department assist the IRS with dyed diesel enforcement, but none of the agencies could provide data on how many violations they have logged."},"reasoning":"The article shows a state transportation department that takes part in dyed-diesel enforcement, now suspended at federal level, and that holds no count of violations. As a state DOT it is also funded in part by federal-aid highway money; a revenue effect on it is inferred and not shown.","series_keys":["highway-trust-fund-net-receipts-musd"]}]},{"slug":"ifta-inc","name":"International Fuel Tax Association, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 813910 Business associations","website":"https://www.iftach.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.truckinginfo.com/news/why-diesel-price-relief-efforts-may-fall-short","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Interstate fleets need to check the rules along their routes, rather than assume permission in one state carries into the next. IFTA maintains notices and links to the individual state instructions."},"reasoning":"The trade press names the body that administers the interstate fuel-tax agreement as the place where the state notices on dyed diesel are collected. Carriers report fuel tax by state through it, so dyed fuel bought in one state still creates liability in the others; the association's own notices page could not be reached from here.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]},{"slug":"breakthrough-fuel","name":"Breakthrough Fuel LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 541614 Process, physical distribution and logistics consulting services","website":"https://www.breakthroughfuel.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"us-dyed-diesel-highway-waiver-eo-14435-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.freightwaves.com/news/red-dye-diesel-break-is-being-greeted-with-a-big-yawn","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"“Most truck stop highway lanes do not dispense dyed fuel, so the practical opportunity for OTR fleets is small,” the report said."},"reasoning":"The fuel adviser to shippers told its clients, as quoted by FreightWaves, that highway lanes rarely carry dyed fuel and that clear diesel pricing is unchanged by the order. It calculates fuel reimbursements between shippers and carriers, so its reading shapes surcharges; the report itself was read only through the press quote.","series_keys":["us-diesel-retail-usd-gal"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"Federal penalties on highway use of dyed diesel are lifted from 1 October to 31 December 2026, the rack tax on clear diesel is untouched and no section 7508A text has appeared. Which fleet can reach a dyed source (its own bulk tank, a seller willing to sell), who keeps the 24.3 cents when the freight surcharge is indexed on the taxed price, which text the IRS and the Federal Register carry by 31 December 2026 (prolongation, grace period or run-off only, none), and what a heating-oil buyer or a reader of the Highway Trust Fund statement can and cannot read in a public series, and on which date, before treating 'trucks are drawing on the heating-oil and farm pool' as measured?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Federal excise tax on diesel fuel removed at the terminal rack, 26 U.S.C. 4081(a)(2)(A)(iii)","value":24.3,"unit":"cents per gallon","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2024-title26/html/USCODE-2024-title26-subtitleD-chap32-subchapA-partIII-subpartA-sec4081.htm","source_date":"2026-11-12","quote":"in the case of diesel fuel or kerosene, 24.3 cents per gallon.","note":"Official edition (U.S. Code, 2024 edition, govinfo), read on the date shown; the Cornell copy reads the same. Section 4081 is not cited by Executive Order 14435. The rate of section 4041 on a dyed gallon sold for or used on the highway is this rate (4041(a)(1)(C)(i))."},{"id":"K2","name":"Leaking Underground Storage Tank financing rate added to the section 4081 rates","value":0.1,"unit":"cents per gallon","kind":"MARKET","source_url":"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2024-title26/html/USCODE-2024-title26-subtitleD-chap32-subchapA-partIII-subpartA-sec4081.htm","source_date":"2026-11-12","quote":"The rates of tax specified in subparagraph (A) shall each be increased by 0.1 cent per gallon.","note":"Official edition (govinfo). IRS FAQ Q10 of 23 October 2026: this rate 'generally applies when dyed diesel leaves the terminal. If that tax was already imposed, it is not imposed again when the fuel is later sold for use or used on the highway.' The federal amount at stake on a dyed gallon used on the highway is therefore 24.3 cents (K1), not 24.4."}],"constants_total":38,"constraints_total":11,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Executive Order 14435 and IRS releases IR-2026-122 and IR-2026-125 (dyed fuel only)","to":"EIA on-highway diesel price, taxes included","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L2","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Federal penalty relief on highway use of dyed diesel","to":"Highway vehicles physically able to take dyed diesel (dispensing and private bulk tanks)","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L3","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"State taxes and state dyed-fuel rules left in place, different in each state","to":"Carriers crossing state lines stay on clear diesel","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L4","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"Highway gallons moved from clear to dyed diesel","to":"US distillate stocks and product supplied","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L5","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Highway demand for dyed diesel","to":"Heating oil gaining on road diesel at retail (the spread narrowing and staying narrow)","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L6","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"The claim, as worded by its authors, that highway demand for dyed diesel draws on the heating-oil pool","to":"East Coast distillate stocks drawing faster than in earlier years","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Gallons used on the highway without federal tax","to":"Highway Trust Fund net receipts","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L8","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Expiry on 31 December 2026, residual dye, no grace period published","to":"Users who switched return to clear diesel before the expiry","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L9","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"A dated end on 31 December 2026, the stated cause (price level, low stocks) and the calendar of the issuer","to":"The same institutions prolong the relief, let it end, or handle the tail by a grace period","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L10","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Access to dyed fuel, state of operation, expiry date","to":"Which buyer changes where it fuels, which seller adds dyed capacity, who carries the cost","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L11","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Twelve weeks of penalty relief with the tax deferred, not forgiven","to":"Fuel retailers and marketers decline to sell dyed diesel for highway use","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L12","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Inspections suspended during the relief (all fuel compliance officers re-assigned)","to":"Highway use of untaxed dyed fuel persists after the expiry","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L13","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Heating oil above 6 USD per gallon at the start of the season","to":"Households order less and pay later; early-season pull on East Coast stocks is lower","status":"UNTESTED"}],"alternatives_total":5,"conjectures_total":4,"trajectories_total":3,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-12","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":3},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-12","constants":38,"constraints":11,"links":13,"untested":9,"contradicted":0,"alternatives":5,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":3}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. 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