{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain as link ends with statuses, 2 constants with quotes, counts for the rest). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","title":"Meuse low flow at Chooz, the 1998 Franco-Belgian flow thresholds and the two Chooz nuclear units, July–November 2026","date":"2026-08-01","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","geography":[{"code":"FR-08","name":"Chooz, Ardennes (Meuse gauge B720000001 and nuclear plant)","latitude":50.089,"longitude":4.783},{"code":"FR-GES","name":"Grand Est region (Chooz, Cattenom and Nogent nuclear plants)","latitude":48.7,"longitude":5.6},{"code":"FR","name":"Metropolitan France (RTE system)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"BE","name":"Belgium (Meuse downstream of Chooz; Elia control area)","latitude":null,"longitude":null}],"source_url":"https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org/afp/fortes-chaleurs-trois-reacteurs-nucleaires-a-larret-en-raison-de-baisses-du-debit-de-rivieres-260803","summary":"The Hub'Eau record at Chooz (station B720000001, upstream of the plant) shows the Meuse 12-day mean flow below 22 m3/s from 14 July to 24 October 2026 (103 days) and below 20 m3/s from 6 August to 24 October (80 days), with a daily minimum of 15.2 m3/s on 1 October; the 1998 Franco-Belgian agreement sets 22 and 20 m3/s, on a twelve-consecutive-day mean downstream of the plant, as the flows at which safeguard measures start and below which no aggravation is allowed. EDF stopped Chooz unit 2 on 11 July and unit 1 on 1 August. Grand Est nuclear output averaged 3,589 MW from 2 August to 25 October 2026 against 7,296 MW over the same dates in 2025, and 4,765 MW from 26 October to 11 November. Belgium's physical imports from France fell from a mean of 2,210 MW (1 June to 10 July) to 1,350 MW (2 August to 25 October), while the Belgium minus France day-ahead price gap narrowed from 40.3 to 9.2 EUR/MWh.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"be-day-ahead-eur-mwh","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Day-ahead wholesale electricity price, bidding zone Belgium, daily average as published by SMARD (filter 4996; SMARD takes the data from ENTSO-E); delivery day in Central European time","unit":"EUR/MWh","geography":"BE","publisher":"bnetza-smard","source_url":"https://www.smard.de/app/chart_data/4996/DE/4996_DE_day_1767222000000.json","source_sha256":"64436fc54c0e49c88d95725677c070e8edf93065232195a24d4465cd538daf8c","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:48:17+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de","licence":"CC BY 4.0: \"Als Namensnennung ist \\\"Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de\\\" zu verwenden.\" Market data on SMARD are published under Creative Commons Namensnennung 4.0 International. Wholesale prices are an exception under review: \"Wir überprüfen rechtliche Fragen zur Lizenzierung der Großhandelspreise derzeit umfassend im Rahmen des aktuellen Festlegungsverfahrens HEDWIG.\" Wholesale price series are therefore marked RESTRICTED per series.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.smard.de/home/datennutzung","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"be-fr-day-ahead-spread-eur-mwh","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Belgium minus France day-ahead wholesale electricity price, daily average (derived)","unit":"EUR/MWh","geography":"BE","publisher":"bnetza-smard","source_url":"https://www.smard.de/app/chart_data/4996/DE/4996_DE_day_1767222000000.json","source_sha256":"64436fc54c0e49c88d95725677c070e8edf93065232195a24d4465cd538daf8c","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:48:17+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":{"op":"diff","inputs":["be-day-ahead-eur-mwh","fr-day-ahead-eur-mwh"]},"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de","licence":"CC BY 4.0: \"Als Namensnennung ist \\\"Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de\\\" zu verwenden.\" Market data on SMARD are published under Creative Commons Namensnennung 4.0 International. Wholesale prices are an exception under review: \"Wir überprüfen rechtliche Fragen zur Lizenzierung der Großhandelspreise derzeit umfassend im Rahmen des aktuellen Festlegungsverfahrens HEDWIG.\" Wholesale price series are therefore marked RESTRICTED per series.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.smard.de/home/datennutzung","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":680,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"be-fr-physical-flow-mw","family":"FLOW","variable":"Physical flow on the Belgium-France interconnection (Elia ods026, control area France), daily mean of quarter-hour values per Belgian local day, null below 90 % of the day's values; positive = Belgium exports to France, negative = Belgium imports from France","unit":"MW","geography":"BE","publisher":"elia","source_url":"https://opendata.elia.be/explore/dataset/ods026/","source_sha256":"4a24f1290f71bff7ad23e2e5f31e02510bc40047c34a6461a41bf70784a018af","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:47:16+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"Elia (Belgian transmission system operator) — Open Data Portal","licence":"Elia Open Data License: \"The data provided for are governed by Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (\"Public License\" or \"CC BY 4.0\"). This Public License is governed by Belgian law.\"","licence_evidence_url":"https://opendata.elia.be/pages/licence","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":-1260.4},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":-1184.8},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":-476.6},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":-50},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":1407.7},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":2427.5},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":1114.1},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":1051.5},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":709.4},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":-618.1},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":-1383.4},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":-1684}]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"fr-day-ahead-eur-mwh","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Day-ahead wholesale electricity price, bidding zone France, daily average as published by SMARD (filter 254; SMARD takes the data from ENTSO-E); delivery day in Central European time","unit":"EUR/MWh","geography":"FR","publisher":"bnetza-smard","source_url":"https://www.smard.de/app/chart_data/254/DE/254_DE_day_1767222000000.json","source_sha256":"3bbd1515b791d3e360f7c4257d6e082a2fa8def0c7ac114861a9a228f0b74976","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:48:17+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","publisher_name":"Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de","licence":"CC BY 4.0: \"Als Namensnennung ist \\\"Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de\\\" zu verwenden.\" Market data on SMARD are published under Creative Commons Namensnennung 4.0 International. Wholesale prices are an exception under review: \"Wir überprüfen rechtliche Fragen zur Lizenzierung der Großhandelspreise derzeit umfassend im Rahmen des aktuellen Festlegungsverfahrens HEDWIG.\" Wholesale price series are therefore marked RESTRICTED per series.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.smard.de/home/datennutzung","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":680,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"fr-de-be-commercial-exchange-mw","family":"FLOW","variable":"Net commercial exchange between France and the Germany-Belgium zone (one combined column in éCO2mix; Belgium is not published separately), positive = France imports, negative = France exports; daily mean of the published values per French local day, null below 90 % of the day's values; definitive data for 2025, consolidated from 2026-01-01 to 2026-08-31, real-time telemetry (provisional, to be replaced) from 2026-09-01","unit":"MW","geography":"FR","publisher":"rte-odre","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-national-cons-def/","source_sha256":"696f0710aeff3fea7b57359c4a942f1087730d7c6f4e26e787eedfab1f345b41","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:47:34+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"RTE, via Open Data Réseaux Énergies (ODRÉ) — éCO2mix","licence":"Dataset metadata of the four éCO2mix datasets used (national and regional, consolidated and real time): licence \"Licence Ouverte v2.0 (Etalab)\", publisher \"RTE\". Licence text: \"Le « Réutilisateur » est libre de réutiliser l'« Information » : […] de la communiquer, la diffuser, la redistribuer, la publier et la transmettre, de l'exploiter à titre commercial\", subject to naming the source and the date of last update.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ETALAB-Licence-Ouverte-v2.0.pdf","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":-2978.5},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":-3158.4},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":-2625},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":-2169.4},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":2053.1},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":5136.2},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":1898},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":741},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":393.3},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":-3128.7},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":-5471.2},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":-5690.3}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":680,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"france-gas-output-mw","family":"FLOW","variable":"Gas-fired generation in metropolitan France, éCO2mix national; daily mean of the published values per French local day, null below 90 % of the day's values; definitive data for 2025, consolidated from 2026-01-01 to 2026-08-31, real-time telemetry (provisional, to be replaced) from 2026-09-01","unit":"MW","geography":"FR","publisher":"rte-odre","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-national-cons-def/","source_sha256":"696f0710aeff3fea7b57359c4a942f1087730d7c6f4e26e787eedfab1f345b41","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:47:34+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"RTE, via Open Data Réseaux Énergies (ODRÉ) — éCO2mix","licence":"Dataset metadata of the four éCO2mix datasets used (national and regional, consolidated and real time): licence \"Licence Ouverte v2.0 (Etalab)\", publisher \"RTE\". Licence text: \"Le « Réutilisateur » est libre de réutiliser l'« Information » : […] de la communiquer, la diffuser, la redistribuer, la publier et la transmettre, de l'exploiter à titre commercial\", subject to naming the source and the date of last update.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ETALAB-Licence-Ouverte-v2.0.pdf","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":3133.3},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":3247.6},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":4828.8},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":5793.2},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":5877.9},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":5940.3},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":6831.1},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":6611.2},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":5868.8},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":6723.9},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":6982.1},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":6282.4}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":680,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"france-nuclear-output-mw","family":"FLOW","variable":"Nuclear generation in metropolitan France, éCO2mix national; daily mean of the published values per French local day, null below 90 % of the day's values; definitive data for 2025, consolidated from 2026-01-01 to 2026-08-31, real-time telemetry (provisional, to be replaced) from 2026-09-01","unit":"MW","geography":"FR","publisher":"rte-odre","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-national-cons-def/","source_sha256":"696f0710aeff3fea7b57359c4a942f1087730d7c6f4e26e787eedfab1f345b41","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:47:34+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"RTE, via Open Data Réseaux Énergies (ODRÉ) — éCO2mix","licence":"Dataset metadata of the four éCO2mix datasets used (national and regional, consolidated and real time): licence \"Licence Ouverte v2.0 (Etalab)\", publisher \"RTE\". Licence text: \"Le « Réutilisateur » est libre de réutiliser l'« Information » : […] de la communiquer, la diffuser, la redistribuer, la publier et la transmettre, de l'exploiter à titre commercial\", subject to naming the source and the date of last update.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ETALAB-Licence-Ouverte-v2.0.pdf","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":42634.9},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":41707.8},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":41531.3},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":41362},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":41240.1},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":40481.4},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":42324.7},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":38831.2},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":39439.1},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":40633.7},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":41709.5},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":41974.4}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":680,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","family":"FLOW","variable":"Nuclear generation in the Grand Est region (Cattenom, Chooz and Nogent plants), éCO2mix regional; daily mean of the published values per French local day, null below 90 % of the day's values; definitive data for 2025, consolidated from 2026-01-01 to 2026-08-31, real-time telemetry (provisional, to be replaced) from 2026-09-01","unit":"MW","geography":"FR-GES","publisher":"rte-odre","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-regional-cons-def/","source_sha256":"7126416c74c7f8994c3fa620d0416aa1089cd04264d77f3d82cd8027acd1a812","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:47:34+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"RTE, via Open Data Réseaux Énergies (ODRÉ) — éCO2mix","licence":"Dataset metadata of the four éCO2mix datasets used (national and regional, consolidated and real time): licence \"Licence Ouverte v2.0 (Etalab)\", publisher \"RTE\". Licence text: \"Le « Réutilisateur » est libre de réutiliser l'« Information » : […] de la communiquer, la diffuser, la redistribuer, la publier et la transmettre, de l'exploiter à titre commercial\", subject to naming the source and the date of last update.","licence_evidence_url":"https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ETALAB-Licence-Ouverte-v2.0.pdf","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-12","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":5177.7},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":5217.2},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":5224.1},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":5229.2},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":5209},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":5231.4},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":4317.3},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":3968},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":3963.5},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":4399.7},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":5433},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":5298.8}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":143,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Meuse flow at Chooz, station B720000004 'La Meuse à Chooz - Trou du Diable \"EDF\"', which the publisher describes as the reference for real-time flows computed from the EDF sensor; the station record does not state a position upstream or downstream of the plant and gives the same coordinates as station B720000001: mean of the daily mean flows over the twelve consecutive days ending on the period date, computed by the collector from meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-m3s; null for the first eleven days (first value 2026-07-03). Not the operator's regulatory computation; inputs are raw or pre-validated values, may be revised","unit":"m3/s","geography":"FR-08","publisher":"hubeau-eaufrance","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000004&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&date_fin_obs_elab=2026-11-12&size=20000","source_sha256":"7378b0a507ce38bfcf4bb47853d17d9b46bc9f262ac7038ced048f112e194142","collected_at":"2026-11-12T16:25:08+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"Hub'Eau, Eaufrance (SCHAPI, DREAL, CNR) — hydrométrie","licence":"Conditions générales Hub'Eau, Licence Ouverte Etalab: \"Les Jeux de données sont donc librement et gratuitement utilisables et réutilisables, y compris dans un but commercial. L'utilisateur de ces données doit néanmoins veiller à citer l'auteur des Jeux de données.\"","licence_evidence_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/page/conditions-generales","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-11","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":35.857},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":36.28},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":36.405},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":36.518},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":35.897},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":34.972},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":30.168},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":26.534},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":23.498},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":23.021},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":22.898},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":23.058}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":143,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-m3s","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Meuse daily mean flow (QmnJ) at Chooz, station B720000004 'La Meuse à Chooz - Trou du Diable \"EDF\"', which the publisher describes as the reference for real-time flows computed from the EDF sensor; the station record does not state a position upstream or downstream of the plant and gives the same coordinates as station B720000001; source values in L/s divided by 1000; published from 2026-06-22 only; no validated value: 31 days pre-validated (30 good, 1 doubtful), 112 days raw (59 not qualified, 53 doubtful), may be revised","unit":"m3/s","geography":"FR-08","publisher":"hubeau-eaufrance","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000004&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&date_fin_obs_elab=2026-11-12&size=20000","source_sha256":"7378b0a507ce38bfcf4bb47853d17d9b46bc9f262ac7038ced048f112e194142","collected_at":"2026-11-12T16:25:08+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"Hub'Eau, Eaufrance (SCHAPI, DREAL, CNR) — hydrométrie","licence":"Conditions générales Hub'Eau, Licence Ouverte Etalab: \"Les Jeux de données sont donc librement et gratuitement utilisables et réutilisables, y compris dans un but commercial. L'utilisateur de ces données doit néanmoins veiller à citer l'auteur des Jeux de données.\"","licence_evidence_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/page/conditions-generales","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-11","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":22.119},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":22.28},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":21.37},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":21.599},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":19.738},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":19.913},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":19.866},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":19.19},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":23.421},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":30.238},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":28.614},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":28.342}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":4333,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Meuse flow at Chooz (station B720000001, upstream of the plant): mean of the daily mean flows over the twelve consecutive days ending on the period date, computed by the collector from meuse-chooz-flow-m3s; null for the first eleven days. Not the operator's regulatory computation, which uses the station downstream of the plant","unit":"m3/s","geography":"FR-08","publisher":"hubeau-eaufrance","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&date_fin_obs_elab=2026-11-12&size=20000","source_sha256":"12f8c35ae54430d857172c2b5aaae316cdbaf526258c9f11d9e4a60edb3c3825","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:48:58+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"Hub'Eau, Eaufrance (SCHAPI, DREAL, CNR) — hydrométrie","licence":"Conditions générales Hub'Eau, Licence Ouverte Etalab: \"Les Jeux de données sont donc librement et gratuitement utilisables et réutilisables, y compris dans un but commercial. L'utilisateur de ces données doit néanmoins veiller à citer l'auteur des Jeux de données.\"","licence_evidence_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/page/conditions-generales","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-11","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":36.099},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":36.536},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":36.66},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":36.774},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":36.151},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":35.227},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":30.421},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":26.79},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":23.766},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":23.291},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":23.16},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":23.32}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":4333,"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","key":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Meuse daily mean flow (QmnJ) at Chooz, station B720000001 'Trou du Diable DREAL', upstream of the power plant (does not include the flow evaporated by the cooling towers); source values in L/s divided by 1000; 2026 values pre-validated or raw, may be revised","unit":"m3/s","geography":"FR-08","publisher":"hubeau-eaufrance","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&date_fin_obs_elab=2026-11-12&size=20000","source_sha256":"12f8c35ae54430d857172c2b5aaae316cdbaf526258c9f11d9e4a60edb3c3825","collected_at":"2026-11-12T15:48:58+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","publisher_name":"Hub'Eau, Eaufrance (SCHAPI, DREAL, CNR) — hydrométrie","licence":"Conditions générales Hub'Eau, Licence Ouverte Etalab: \"Les Jeux de données sont donc librement et gratuitement utilisables et réutilisables, y compris dans un but commercial. L'utilisateur de ces données doit néanmoins veiller à citer l'auteur des Jeux de données.\"","licence_evidence_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/page/conditions-generales","licence_checked_at":"2026-11-11","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-31","value":22.34},{"period":"2026-11-01","value":22.606},{"period":"2026-11-02","value":21.671},{"period":"2026-11-03","value":21.889},{"period":"2026-11-04","value":20.002},{"period":"2026-11-05","value":20.139},{"period":"2026-11-06","value":20.101},{"period":"2026-11-07","value":19.475},{"period":"2026-11-08","value":23.703},{"period":"2026-11-09","value":30.504},{"period":"2026-11-10","value":28.824},{"period":"2026-11-11","value":28.588}]}],"edition":{"title":"Both Chooz reactors stopped during 103 days of low Meuse flow: the limit was a Franco-Belgian agreement, not cooling","lead":"The 12-day mean flow of the Meuse upstream of Chooz stayed under 22 m3/s for 103 days, from 14 July to 24 October 2026, the longest episode of the 2015 to 2026 record, and reached 15.558 m3/s in early October. Both units of the plant were stopped: about 7.2 TWh at rated output by the reported dates. The operator states that the river could still cool the reactors; the limit was the 1998 Franco-Belgian agreement, applied through the safety authority's rule on evaporated water.","published_at":"2026-11-12","vectors":["meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","be-fr-physical-flow-mw"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-14","value":21.981},{"id":"F2","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-08-06","value":19.83},{"id":"F3","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"min","period":null,"value":15.558},{"id":"F4","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-24","value":19.733},{"id":"F5","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-25","value":24.653},{"id":"F6","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-03","value":36.774},{"id":"F7","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"last","period":null,"value":23.32},{"id":"F8","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","stat":"min","period":null,"value":15.161},{"id":"F9","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-07","value":19.475},{"id":"F10","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","stat":"last","period":null,"value":28.588},{"id":"F11","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-11","value":22.995},{"id":"F12","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-08-01","value":20.703},{"id":"F13","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-09","value":7585.8},{"id":"F14","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-11","value":4124},{"id":"F15","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-31","value":5992.5},{"id":"F16","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-08-02","value":3274.2},{"id":"F17","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"min","period":null,"value":2166.5},{"id":"F18","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-29","value":5160.9},{"id":"F19","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-05","value":5231.4},{"id":"F20","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-08","value":3963.5},{"id":"F21","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"last","period":null,"value":5298.8},{"id":"F22","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2025-11-11","value":7027.3},{"id":"F23","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"max","period":null,"value":10826.5},{"id":"F24","series":"fr-day-ahead-eur-mwh","stat":"max","period":null,"value":334.12},{"id":"F25","series":"be-day-ahead-eur-mwh","stat":"max","period":null,"value":335.27},{"id":"F26","series":"be-fr-day-ahead-spread-eur-mwh","stat":"max","period":null,"value":104.53},{"id":"F27","series":"be-fr-day-ahead-spread-eur-mwh","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-13","value":60.78},{"id":"F28","series":"be-fr-day-ahead-spread-eur-mwh","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-11.26},{"id":"F29","series":"be-fr-physical-flow-mw","stat":"min","period":null,"value":-4148.3},{"id":"F30","series":"be-fr-physical-flow-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-05","value":2427.5},{"id":"F31","series":"be-fr-physical-flow-mw","stat":"last","period":null,"value":-1684},{"id":"F32","series":"france-gas-output-mw","stat":"last","period":null,"value":6282.4},{"id":"F33","series":"france-gas-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2025-11-11","value":1223.7},{"id":"F34","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-08","value":23.703},{"id":"F35","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-09","value":30.504},{"id":"F36","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-10","value":28.824},{"id":"F37","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2020-08-21","value":20.423},{"id":"F38","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2020-08-24","value":19.868},{"id":"F39","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2018-10-19","value":22.161},{"id":"F40","series":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2020-09-28","value":23.354},{"id":"F41","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-26","value":3992.6},{"id":"F42","series":"france-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"last","period":null,"value":41974.4},{"id":"F43","series":"france-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2025-11-11","value":44254.9},{"id":"F45","series":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-11","value":22.923},{"id":"F46","series":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-08-01","value":20.922},{"id":"F47","series":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-10","value":22.898},{"id":"F48","series":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","stat":"last","period":null,"value":23.058},{"id":"F49","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-15","value":3827.7},{"id":"F50","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-14","value":4239.6},{"id":"F51","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2026-11-10","value":5433},{"id":"F52","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2025-12-02","value":9191.5},{"id":"F53","series":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","stat":"value","period":"2025-12-08","value":7548.7},{"id":"F54","series":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-m3s","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-11","value":21.308}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Meuse at Chooz, 12-day mean of the daily flows against 22 and 20 m3/s, DREAL gauge B720000001 (Hub'Eau; the query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened)","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000"},{"indicator":"Meuse at Chooz, same reading on the operator's gauge B720000004 (Hub'Eau; same query, no end date)","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000004&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000"},{"indicator":"Operator's Chooz news page: notices of a stop or power reduction naming the Meuse flow (opens in a browser)","source_url":"https://www.edf.fr/la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz/les-actualites-de-la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz"},{"indicator":"Grand Est nuclear output, RTE éCO2mix regional","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-regional-cons-def/"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"mean-12d-min-below-20-by-7-december","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"The lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz between 12 November and 7 December 2026 is below 20 m3/s. The safety authority's rule then sets the evaporated flow at nil on the thirteenth day, both units stopped in the operator's wording. Pace required, recomputed from the daily flows to 11 November: a first reading under 20 needs the days from 12 November to average under 18.26 m3/s by 21 November, under 19.22 by 22 November, or under 20 over the twelve days to 23 November; earlier dates need lower flows still (under 16.90 by 20 November). All are below the mean flow of 2 to 7 November (20.55; lowest day 19.475 on 7 November). No precedent on these dates in 2015 to 2025. Reading rule for the flow: Hub'Eau, lowest value of the 12-day mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) on any day from 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026 with the values as then published (raw or pre-validated). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the reading is made on the values published and is void if no 12-day mean of the window can be formed. The DREAL gauge B720000001 decides the branch; the operator's gauge B720000004 is read beside it and a difference of branch between the two is reported as such. Neither gauge subtracts the evaporated flow: the downstream value of the rule is lower by up to 2.1 m3/s with two units running, so a reading from 22 to 24.1 leaves it undetermined. The four branches of this reading are read in the order written (lowest mean under 20; from 20 to under 22; at or above 22 with a published flow-linked measure; at or above 22 with none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. A 12-day mean under 22 m3/s or a measure dated 8 to 31 December 2026 belongs to no branch: those days are read in a follow-up, and the branch read on 8 December stands. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means over the 12 days after the first reading under 20, read on 24 December 2026, against 1,098.8 to 4,998.8 MW.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz, DREAL gauge B720000001, 12 November to 7 December 2026, as published on 8 December 2026","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":"<","value":20}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: the same lowest 12-day mean on the operator's gauge B720000004; a difference of branch between the two gauges is reported as such","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000004&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":null},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means over the 12 days after the first reading under 20, read on 24 December 2026, against 1,098.8 to 4,998.8 MW","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-regional-cons-def/","series_key":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-08","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"mean-12d-min-from-20-to-22-by-7-december","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"The lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz between 12 November and 7 December 2026 is below 22 m3/s and at or above 20 m3/s. The safety authority's rule then limits the evaporated flow to 5 percent of the river flow, about one unit's worth: one unit stopped in the operator's wording, or power reductions that may bear on both units. Pace required, recomputed from the daily flows to 11 November: a first reading under 22 needs the days from 12 November to average under 19.56 m3/s by 20 November or under 20.66 by 21 November; earlier dates need lower flows still (under 19.05 by 19 November). The second figure is the level of 2 to 7 November (mean 20.55); the first lies below it (one day since 31 October, 19.475 on 7 November). Local precedent for a stay between the two figures: 14 July to 5 August 2026 and the 2019 episode. Reading rule for the flow: Hub'Eau, lowest value of the 12-day mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) on any day from 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026 with the values as then published (raw or pre-validated). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the reading is made on the values published and is void if no 12-day mean of the window can be formed. The DREAL gauge B720000001 decides the branch; the operator's gauge B720000004 is read beside it and a difference of branch between the two is reported as such. Neither gauge subtracts the evaporated flow: the downstream value of the rule is lower by up to 2.1 m3/s with two units running, so a reading from 22 to 24.1 leaves it undetermined. The four branches of this reading are read in the order written (lowest mean under 20; from 20 to under 22; at or above 22 with a published flow-linked measure; at or above 22 with none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. A 12-day mean under 22 m3/s or a measure dated 8 to 31 December 2026 belongs to no branch: those days are read in a follow-up, and the branch read on 8 December stands. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means over the 12 days after the first reading under 22, read on 24 December 2026, against 2,548.8 to 6,448.8 MW.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz, DREAL gauge B720000001, 12 November to 7 December 2026, as published on 8 December 2026, upper bound","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":"<","value":22}},{"name":"Lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz, DREAL gauge B720000001, 12 November to 7 December 2026, as published on 8 December 2026, lower bound","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":">=","value":20}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: the same lowest 12-day mean on the operator's gauge B720000004; a difference of branch between the two gauges is reported as such","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000004&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":null},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means over the 12 days after the first reading under 22, read on 24 December 2026, against 2,548.8 to 6,448.8 MW","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-regional-cons-def/","series_key":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-08","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"mean-12d-min-at-or-above-22-published-flow-linked-measure-at-chooz","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"The lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz between 12 November and 7 December 2026 is at or above 22 m3/s, and at least one published document attributes a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit between the same dates to the Meuse flow. The published document, not the flow series, separates this branch from the next. Precedents: 11 July 2026 (22.995 on the DREAL gauge, 22.923 on the operator's) and autumn 2018 (22.161); counter-case: 10 November 2026 (22.898 on the operator's gauge, no stop reported). Reading rule for the flow: Hub'Eau, lowest value of the 12-day mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) on any day from 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026 with the values as then published (raw or pre-validated). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the reading is made on the values published and is void if no 12-day mean of the window can be formed. The DREAL gauge B720000001 decides the branch; the operator's gauge B720000004 is read beside it and a difference of branch between the two is reported as such. Neither gauge subtracts the evaporated flow: the downstream value of the rule is lower by up to 2.1 m3/s with two units running, so a reading from 22 to 24.1 leaves it undetermined. The four branches of this reading are read in the order written (lowest mean under 20; from 20 to under 22; at or above 22 with a published flow-linked measure; at or above 22 with none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. A 12-day mean under 22 m3/s or a measure dated 8 to 31 December 2026 belongs to no branch: those days are read in a follow-up, and the branch read on 8 December stands. Reading rule for the measure, as it stands on 8 December 2026: at least one published document dated 12 November to 7 December 2026 that reports a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit, whatever its size or duration, and names the Meuse flow, the 1998 agreement or the limit on evaporated water as its reason. One document at any of three kinds of source counts: a notice on the operator's Chooz news page (https://www.edf.fr/la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz/les-actualites-de-la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz), opened in an ordinary browser (the page refuses automated readers), its title, date and sentence copied into the reading; a news-agency dispatch as republished by the regional and national press (no single public feed: the reading names the titles searched); or a generation unavailability message for Chooz 1 or Chooz 2 that states the cause, on the grid operator's public page of unavailability messages (https://iip.cloud-rte-france.com/production-unavailability; opened once on 12 November 2026: it answers an automated reader, but its messages load by script and are read in a browser). A trade-press article alone does not count and is reported beside the reading. A fall of output with no published reason is reported as unattributed and does not change the branch. A document published after 8 December about days of the window is reported on 24 December as a late correction. The reading names, for each source, who opened it (a person in a browser, or an agent) and on which date. If the operator's page was not opened, the fourth branch is recorded as 'no document found in dispatches and unavailability messages; operator's page not opened' and stays provisional until a person opens it. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means of 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026, against 2,548.8 to 8,574.9 MW; the regional series cannot separate this branch from the next.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz, DREAL gauge B720000001, 12 November to 7 December 2026, as published on 8 December 2026","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":">=","value":22}},{"name":"Number of published documents dated 12 November to 7 December 2026 that attribute a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit to the Meuse flow, the 1998 agreement or the limit on evaporated water, as they stand on 8 December 2026; one document at any of the three kinds of source (operator's Chooz news page, news-agency dispatch, grid unavailability message stating the cause) counts","source_url":"https://www.edf.fr/la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz/les-actualites-de-la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Source read for the same count, not a separate condition: the grid operator's public page of generation unavailability messages, Chooz 1 and Chooz 2, read in a browser","source_url":"https://iip.cloud-rte-france.com/production-unavailability","series_key":null,"threshold":null},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: the same lowest 12-day mean on the operator's gauge B720000004; a difference of branch between the two gauges is reported as such","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000004&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":null},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means of 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026, against 2,548.8 to 8,574.9 MW","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-regional-cons-def/","series_key":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-08","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"mean-12d-min-at-or-above-22-no-published-flow-linked-measure-at-chooz","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"The lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz between 12 November and 7 December 2026 is at or above 22 m3/s, and no published document attributes a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit between the same dates to the Meuse flow. The branch states that nothing was published, not that nothing happened. Seasonal precedent: every year from 2015 to 2025, lowest value of these dates 28.8 m3/s, none of them starting from a base flow near 20 m3/s. Reading rule for the flow: Hub'Eau, lowest value of the 12-day mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) on any day from 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026 with the values as then published (raw or pre-validated). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the reading is made on the values published and is void if no 12-day mean of the window can be formed. The DREAL gauge B720000001 decides the branch; the operator's gauge B720000004 is read beside it and a difference of branch between the two is reported as such. Neither gauge subtracts the evaporated flow: the downstream value of the rule is lower by up to 2.1 m3/s with two units running, so a reading from 22 to 24.1 leaves it undetermined. The four branches of this reading are read in the order written (lowest mean under 20; from 20 to under 22; at or above 22 with a published flow-linked measure; at or above 22 with none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. A 12-day mean under 22 m3/s or a measure dated 8 to 31 December 2026 belongs to no branch: those days are read in a follow-up, and the branch read on 8 December stands. Reading rule for the measure, as it stands on 8 December 2026: at least one published document dated 12 November to 7 December 2026 that reports a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit, whatever its size or duration, and names the Meuse flow, the 1998 agreement or the limit on evaporated water as its reason. One document at any of three kinds of source counts: a notice on the operator's Chooz news page (https://www.edf.fr/la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz/les-actualites-de-la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz), opened in an ordinary browser (the page refuses automated readers), its title, date and sentence copied into the reading; a news-agency dispatch as republished by the regional and national press (no single public feed: the reading names the titles searched); or a generation unavailability message for Chooz 1 or Chooz 2 that states the cause, on the grid operator's public page of unavailability messages (https://iip.cloud-rte-france.com/production-unavailability; opened once on 12 November 2026: it answers an automated reader, but its messages load by script and are read in a browser). A trade-press article alone does not count and is reported beside the reading. A fall of output with no published reason is reported as unattributed and does not change the branch. A document published after 8 December about days of the window is reported on 24 December as a late correction. The reading names, for each source, who opened it (a person in a browser, or an agent) and on which date. If the operator's page was not opened, the fourth branch is recorded as 'no document found in dispatches and unavailability messages; operator's page not opened' and stays provisional until a person opens it. If no such document exists on 8 December, this branch holds. Read beside the branch and not defining it: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means of 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026, against 3,998.8 to 8,574.9 MW; that band tests the six other units of the region, not the river.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"HIGH","indicators":[{"name":"Lowest 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz, DREAL gauge B720000001, 12 November to 7 December 2026, as published on 8 December 2026","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":">=","value":22}},{"name":"Number of published documents dated 12 November to 7 December 2026 that attribute a stop or a power reduction of a Chooz unit to the Meuse flow, the 1998 agreement or the limit on evaporated water, as they stand on 8 December 2026; one document at any of the three kinds of source (operator's Chooz news page, news-agency dispatch, grid unavailability message stating the cause) counts","source_url":"https://www.edf.fr/la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz/les-actualites-de-la-centrale-nucleaire-de-chooz","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"Source read for the same count, not a separate condition: the grid operator's public page of generation unavailability messages, Chooz 1 and Chooz 2, read in a browser","source_url":"https://iip.cloud-rte-france.com/production-unavailability","series_key":null,"threshold":null},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: the same lowest 12-day mean on the operator's gauge B720000004; a difference of branch between the two gauges is reported as such","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000004&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-b720000004-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":null},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: Grand Est nuclear output, mean of the daily means of 12 November to 7 December 2026, read on 8 December 2026, against 3,998.8 to 8,574.9 MW","source_url":"https://odre.opendatasoft.com/explore/dataset/eco2mix-regional-cons-def/","series_key":"grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-08","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"april-2027-mean-flow-below-90","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"The mean daily flow of the Meuse at Chooz in April 2027 is below 90 m3/s. Years on file under 90: 2017 (no day of the 12-day mean under 22 that summer), 2025 (3 days) and 2026 (103 days). Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, arithmetic mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) of 1 to 30 April 2027, read on 5 May 2027 with the values as then published. The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the mean is taken on the April days published and their number is stated; the reading is void if none is published. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (below 90; from 90 to below 150; at or above 150) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. April means on file: 67.9 (2017), 70.4 (2025), 85.0 (2026), 97.6 (2021), 105.7 (2020), 116.0 (2019), 121.8 (2022), 156.9 (2015), 177.5 (2018), 186.1 (2016), 233.0 (2024), 238.7 (2023). The April mean is a starting level, not a reading of the summer: it does not separate the episode years from the others (67.9 in 2017 with no day under 22; 105.7 in 2020 with 46 days). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the May 2027 mean flow, read on 5 June 2027, against 42.7 to 60.5 m3/s, the range of the precedent years; the May ranges of the three branches overlap.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Mean of the daily mean flows of the Meuse at Chooz, 1 to 30 April 2027, DREAL gauge B720000001, as published on 5 May 2027","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","threshold":{"op":"<","value":90}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: mean of the daily mean flows of May 2027 at the same gauge, read on 5 June 2027, against 42.7 to 60.5 m3/s","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-05-05","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"april-2027-mean-flow-from-90-to-150","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"The mean daily flow of the Meuse at Chooz in April 2027 is below 150 m3/s and at or above 90 m3/s. Years on file in this band: 2019 (21 days of the 12-day mean under 22), 2020 (46), 2021 (0) and 2022 (38). Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, arithmetic mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) of 1 to 30 April 2027, read on 5 May 2027 with the values as then published. The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the mean is taken on the April days published and their number is stated; the reading is void if none is published. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (below 90; from 90 to below 150; at or above 150) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. April means on file: 67.9 (2017), 70.4 (2025), 85.0 (2026), 97.6 (2021), 105.7 (2020), 116.0 (2019), 121.8 (2022), 156.9 (2015), 177.5 (2018), 186.1 (2016), 233.0 (2024), 238.7 (2023). The April mean is a starting level, not a reading of the summer: it does not separate the episode years from the others (67.9 in 2017 with no day under 22; 105.7 in 2020 with 46 days). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the May 2027 mean flow, read on 5 June 2027, against 57.5 to 105.3 m3/s, the range of the precedent years; the May ranges of the three branches overlap.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Mean of the daily mean flows of the Meuse at Chooz, 1 to 30 April 2027, DREAL gauge B720000001, as published on 5 May 2027, upper bound","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","threshold":{"op":"<","value":150}},{"name":"Mean of the daily mean flows of the Meuse at Chooz, 1 to 30 April 2027, DREAL gauge B720000001, as published on 5 May 2027, lower bound","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","threshold":{"op":">=","value":90}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: mean of the daily mean flows of May 2027 at the same gauge, read on 5 June 2027, against 57.5 to 105.3 m3/s","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-05-05","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"april-2027-mean-flow-at-or-above-150","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"The mean daily flow of the Meuse at Chooz in April 2027 is at or above 150 m3/s. Years on file at or above 150: 2015, 2016, 2018, 2023 and 2024, none with a day of the DREAL 12-day mean under 22; in 2018 a unit was nevertheless stopped in autumn. Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, arithmetic mean of the daily mean flows (QmnJ) of 1 to 30 April 2027, read on 5 May 2027 with the values as then published. The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If a daily value is missing on that day, the mean is taken on the April days published and their number is stated; the reading is void if none is published. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (below 90; from 90 to below 150; at or above 150) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. April means on file: 67.9 (2017), 70.4 (2025), 85.0 (2026), 97.6 (2021), 105.7 (2020), 116.0 (2019), 121.8 (2022), 156.9 (2015), 177.5 (2018), 186.1 (2016), 233.0 (2024), 238.7 (2023). The April mean is a starting level, not a reading of the summer: it does not separate the episode years from the others (67.9 in 2017 with no day under 22; 105.7 in 2020 with 46 days). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the May 2027 mean flow, read on 5 June 2027, against 86.9 to 174.0 m3/s, the range of the precedent years; the May ranges of the three branches overlap.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Mean of the daily mean flows of the Meuse at Chooz, 1 to 30 April 2027, DREAL gauge B720000001, as published on 5 May 2027","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","threshold":{"op":">=","value":150}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: mean of the daily mean flows of May 2027 at the same gauge, read on 5 June 2027, against 86.9 to 174.0 m3/s","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-05-05","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"days-below-22-in-2027-at-or-above-46","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"In 2027 the DREAL 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz is under 22 m3/s on 46 days or more. Precedents: 2020 and 2026, two of twelve years. Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, number of days between 1 January and 31 December 2027 on which the 12-day mean of the daily flows is under 22 m3/s, read on 4 January 2028 with the values as then published; days after 31 October count (none on file from 2015 to 2026). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If daily values are missing on that day, the count is made on the 12-day means that can be formed and the days without one are stated; the reading is void if no 12-day mean can be formed. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (46 days or more; 1 to 45; none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. Counts on file: 0 in 2015 to 2018, 2021, 2023 and 2024; 21 (2019), 46 (2020), 38 (2022), 3 (2025), 103 (2026). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the days under 24.1 m3/s, the edge of the regulatory zone with two units running (31 in 2018, then 38, 55, 56, 16 and 112 for the same years). The output withheld at Chooz over 2027 is an order of magnitude and is not scored.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Number of days of 2027 with the 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz under 22 m3/s, DREAL gauge B720000001, as published on 4 January 2028","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":">=","value":46}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: number of days of 2027 with the same 12-day mean under 24.1 m3/s","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2028-01-04","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"days-below-22-in-2027-from-1-to-45","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"In 2027 the DREAL 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz is under 22 m3/s on 1 to 45 days. Precedents: 2019, 2022 and 2025, three of twelve years. Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, number of days between 1 January and 31 December 2027 on which the 12-day mean of the daily flows is under 22 m3/s, read on 4 January 2028 with the values as then published; days after 31 October count (none on file from 2015 to 2026). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If daily values are missing on that day, the count is made on the 12-day means that can be formed and the days without one are stated; the reading is void if no 12-day mean can be formed. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (46 days or more; 1 to 45; none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. Counts on file: 0 in 2015 to 2018, 2021, 2023 and 2024; 21 (2019), 46 (2020), 38 (2022), 3 (2025), 103 (2026). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the days under 24.1 m3/s, the edge of the regulatory zone with two units running (31 in 2018, then 38, 55, 56, 16 and 112 for the same years). The output withheld at Chooz over 2027 is an order of magnitude and is not scored.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Number of days of 2027 with the 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz under 22 m3/s, DREAL gauge B720000001, as published on 4 January 2028, lower bound","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":">=","value":1}},{"name":"Number of days of 2027 with the 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz under 22 m3/s, DREAL gauge B720000001, as published on 4 January 2028, upper bound","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":45}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: number of days of 2027 with the same 12-day mean under 24.1 m3/s","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2028-01-04","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"no-day-below-22-in-2027","signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","statement":"In 2027 the DREAL 12-day mean of the Meuse at Chooz is under 22 m3/s on no day. Precedents: seven of twelve years; six of them have no day under 24.1 m3/s either and no reported loss; the seventh, 2018, has 31 days under 24.1 and a reported stop. Reading rule: Hub'Eau station B720000001, number of days between 1 January and 31 December 2027 on which the 12-day mean of the daily flows is under 22 m3/s, read on 4 January 2028 with the values as then published; days after 31 October count (none on file from 2015 to 2026). The Hub'Eau query carries no end date and returns the values published to the day it is opened. If daily values are missing on that day, the count is made on the 12-day means that can be formed and the days without one are stated; the reading is void if no 12-day mean can be formed. The three branches of this reading are read in the order written (46 days or more; 1 to 45; none) and the first whose condition holds is the branch. Counts on file: 0 in 2015 to 2018, 2021, 2023 and 2024; 21 (2019), 46 (2020), 38 (2022), 3 (2025), 103 (2026). Read beside the branch and not defining it: the days under 24.1 m3/s, the edge of the regulatory zone with two units running (31 in 2018, then 38, 55, 56, 16 and 112 for the same years). The output withheld at Chooz over 2027 is an order of magnitude and is not scored.","mechanism":"LOW_WATER","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Number of days of 2027 with the 12-day mean of the Meuse daily flows at Chooz under 22 m3/s, DREAL gauge B720000001, as published on 4 January 2028","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":{"op":"<","value":1}},{"name":"Read beside, not defining the branch: number of days of 2027 with the same 12-day mean under 24.1 m3/s","source_url":"https://hubeau.eaufrance.fr/api/v2/hydrometrie/obs_elab?code_entite=B720000001&grandeur_hydro_elab=QmnJ&date_debut_obs_elab=2015-01-01&size=20000","series_key":"meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2028-01-04","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"edf","name":"Électricité de France SA (EDF)","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 35.11 Production of electricity (nuclear)","website":"https://www.edf.fr/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org/afp/fortes-chaleurs-trois-reacteurs-nucleaires-a-larret-en-raison-de-baisses-du-debit-de-rivieres-260803","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"À Chooz, dans les Ardennes, EDF a stoppé l’unité de production n°1 samedi 1er août à 23h05 afin de se conformer au cadre franco-belge signé le 8 septembre 1998 sur la gestion du débit de la Meuse."},"reasoning":"The AFP dispatch of 3 August 2026 names EDF as the operator that stopped Chooz unit 1 on 1 August under the 1998 Franco-Belgian framework, unit 2 being out since 11 July. The operator's own notices return 403 to our tools; the dossier's counter-analyst read them and reports unit 1 reconnected on 26 October 2026 at 12:15 and unit 2 on 9 November at 14:55, and the Grand Est nuclear series fits both dates (2,167 MW on 25 October, 3,993 on 26 October, 3,964 on 8 November, 5,433 on 10 November). The revenue effect on EDF is inferred: no EDF figure for Chooz alone was read, and EDF also owns gas-fired plants that ran more.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","france-nuclear-output-mw"]}]},{"slug":"engie-electrabel","name":"Electrabel SA (ENGIE group)","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 35.11 Production of electricity","website":"https://www.engie.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://edf.publispeak.com/universal-registration-document-2022/article/25/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Chooz B1-B2 (initial series unit N4): Electrabel (21,7%);"},"reasoning":"EDF's 2022 Universal Registration Document lists Electrabel as the co-contracting party assigned 21.7% of the capacity of Chooz B1-B2 under a generation allocation contract, and states on the same page that 'the total amount of power sold at the variable cost of the fuel is determined by the availability of a broader baseline fleet of power plants'. If those terms still hold, a stop of Chooz alone is carried by EDF and reaches Electrabel's volumes only through the availability of that wider fleet; the terms in force in 2026 and any 2026 volume were not read. The group also owns gas-fired plants in Belgium and France, and its Tihange 3 reactor on the Meuse was already offline for works.","series_keys":["grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","be-day-ahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"luminus","name":"Luminus SA (EDF group)","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 35.11 Production of electricity","website":"https://www.luminus.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://pub.luminus.be/fr/developpement-durable/luminus-rapport-RSE-2023.pdf","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Les droits de tirage (100 MW) sur la centrale de Chooz ont été ajoutés au périmètre organisationnel comptable."},"reasoning":"Luminus's 2023 sustainability report states that it holds 100 MW of drawing rights on Chooz and received 534,858 MWh from them in 2023, against 259 MWh in 2022, when the plant was stopped most of the year, and 408,930 MWh in 2021: its volume follows the plant's own operation. The 2026 shortfall is inferred from that precedent, the 2026 terms and volumes were not read; Luminus also runs six hydro plants on the Belgian Meuse, which lose output at low flow, and gas-fired plants that work in the other direction.","series_keys":["grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","be-day-ahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"rte","name":"RTE Réseau de Transport d'Électricité","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 35.12 Transmission of electricity","website":"https://www.rte-france.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://assets.rte-france.com/prod/public/2026-09/20260921%20-%20Premi%C3%A8res%20analyses%20%C3%A9t%C3%A9%202026.pdf","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Ce phénomène concerne principalement les centrales de Chooz (dont la production est limitée par des accords internationaux sur le débit de la Meuse), Saint-Alban, Golfech, Bugey et Cattenom."},"reasoning":"RTE's first analysis of summer 2026, dated 21 September, names Chooz first among the plants behind about 10 TWh of climate-related nuclear unavailability and ties it to the international agreements on Meuse flow. RTE balances the system and reports no supply difficulty; it bears no price exposure itself, and the same note attributes the rise in spot prices first to gas, not to nuclear.","series_keys":["grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","france-nuclear-output-mw","france-gas-output-mw","fr-de-be-commercial-exchange-mw"]}]},{"slug":"elia","name":"Elia Transmission Belgium SA","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 35.12 Transmission of electricity","website":"https://www.elia.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://opendata.elia.be/api/explore/v2.1/catalog/datasets/ods026","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"The physical energy flows on the interconnections between the Belgian bidding zone and the neighbouring bidding zones. A positive figure means export from Belgium, while negative figure means import into Belgium."},"reasoning":"Elia publishes the physical flows on the Belgian borders, and its France series shows Belgian imports from France falling from a mean of 2,210 MW to 1,350 MW while both Chooz units were stopped. The quote describes the dataset only; no Elia statement linking the lower imports to Chooz was found, so the link is inferred from the series.","series_keys":["be-fr-physical-flow-mw","be-fr-day-ahead-spread-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"asnr","name":"Autorité de sûreté nucléaire et de radioprotection (ASNR)","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses (nuclear safety)","website":"https://www.asnr.fr/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.asn.fr/content/download/51961/file/2009-DC-0164.pdf","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"consécutifs, est inférieure à 20 m3/s, le débit évaporé pendant le treizième jour sera nul"},"reasoning":"Decision 2009-DC-0164 of 17 November 2009, taken by the Autorité de sûreté nucléaire (the body the ASNR succeeded), sets in annex 1, article 4-II the rule the operator applies at Chooz: at most 2.1 m3/s evaporated by the two units as a daily mean, 5% of the river flow when the 12-day mean downstream of the site is between 20 and 22 m3/s, nil under 20 m3/s, and nil at or under 14 m3/s as a daily mean save duly reasoned exceptional circumstances. The rule bears on evaporated water, not on a number of units. The amending decisions of 2017 and 2023 were not read by the mapper, and no regulator notice on the 2026 stops themselves was found; its inspection letter of 30 July 2026 deals with fuel and reactivity control.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s","grand-est-nuclear-output-mw"]}]},{"slug":"international-meuse-commission","name":"Commission Internationale de la Meuse / Internationale Maascommissie (CIM-IMC)","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 99.00 Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies","website":"https://www.meuse-maas.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.meuse-maas.be/CIM/media/Avis_Etiage/Avis%c2%a7d%e2%80%99etiage%c2%a7du%c2%a709-11-2026_FR.pdf","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Suivi des étiages 2026 : semaine 45 (02/11 – 08/11)"},"reasoning":"The commission publishes a weekly low-flow notice for the Meuse basin, with station flows from France to the Netherlands for weeks 23 to 45 of 2026; the notice of 9 November was read. It coordinates the riparian governments and does not apply the 1998 Franco-Belgian agreement itself; no commission position on the Chooz stoppage was found.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"service-public-de-wallonie","name":"Service public de Wallonie (SPW), drought cell and waterways","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses (waterways and water management)","website":"https://www.wallonie.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://cortex.wallonie.be/files/Communiqu%c3%a9s%20Presse/20260730-cp-celex-secheresse.pdf","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Les premières restrictions à la navigation entrées en vigueur depuis le 1er juillet sont toujours d'application et imposent un regroupement des bateaux aux écluses avec un délai d’attente de maximum 1 heure sur toutes les voies d’eau pour les navires marchands."},"reasoning":"The Walloon drought cell's release of 30 July 2026 shows the regional administration grouping vessels at locks on all waterways since 1 July and closing the Lanaye lock at night, on the river that receives the Meuse just downstream of Chooz. Wallonia is the downstream party the 1998 thresholds are meant to protect; the release does not mention Chooz, and what the reactor stoppage added to Belgian flow is not shown.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"rijkswaterstaat","name":"Rijkswaterstaat","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses (waterways and water management)","website":"https://www.rijkswaterstaat.nl/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.rijkswaterstaat.nl/nieuws/archief/2026/07/droogte-effecten-op-scheepvaart-nemen-verder-toe","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Ook op de Noord-Brabantse en Midden-Limburgse kanalen en op de Maasroute kunnen wachttijden bij sluizen oplopen omdat zuiniger geschut wordt."},"reasoning":"Rijkswaterstaat's July 2026 notice shows lock operations on the Dutch Maas route being rationed to save water, with waiting times of about two hours. This places the Dutch river manager on the low-flow side of the chain, two countries downstream of Chooz; the Dutch flow depends on the whole basin and on the Maas discharge treaty with Flanders, and no link to the Chooz thresholds is stated.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"de-vlaamse-waterweg","name":"De Vlaamse Waterweg nv","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.vlaamsewaterweg.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.waterinfo.vlaanderen.be/download/9bb38bb7-fa3b-4b98-8ce8-5b5a552dd2c0?dl=0","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Sinds 17 september wordt er opnieuw gegroepeerd geschut met wachttijd van 2u op de sluizen van Hasselt, Diepenbeek en Genk."},"reasoning":"The Flemish drought report of October 2026 puts the undivided Meuse flow at Liège around 35 m³/s and describes grouped lockage, pumping and an 80% cut of agricultural intakes on the Albert Canal, which is fed by the Meuse. The report does not name the canal's manager; that De Vlaamse Waterweg operates these locks is known from its remit, not from the quote.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"waterschap-limburg","name":"Waterschap Limburg","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses (regional water authority)","website":"https://www.waterschaplimburg.nl/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/wsb-2026-19124.pdf","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"van een droogtecrisis (fase rood) sprake is zodra ten minste twee van de drie gebiedseigen indicatoren de grenswaarden van die fase overschrijden en/of de afvoer van de Maas lager is dan 16 m³/s"},"reasoning":"The water board's July 2026 decision bans surface-water withdrawals in Limburg under drought phase red, a phase its policy rule also ties to a Maas discharge below 16 m³/s. The decision as read was triggered by the three regional indicators (rainfall deficit, brook flows, groundwater), not by the Maas criterion, so the tie to the Meuse flow measured at Chooz is inferred.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"voies-navigables-de-france","name":"Voies navigables de France (VNF)","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 52.22 Service activities incidental to water transportation","website":"https://www.vnf.fr/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.lagazettefrance.fr/article/en-meuse-vnf-veut-accelerer-la-transformation-du-reseau-fluvial","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Son périmètre s’étend sur 348 km de voies navigables, avec le canal des Ardennes entre Dom-le-Ménil et Semuy et le canal de la Meuse, de Troussey à Givet."},"reasoning":"The article shows that VNF's Meuse-Ardennes service runs the canalised Meuse down to Givet, the reach on which the Chooz plant and gauge sit. No VNF notice of draught or lock restrictions on this reach in 2026 was found, so any navigation effect on the French side is inferred from the flow series alone.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"vivaqua","name":"VIVAQUA SC","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 36.00 Water collection, treatment and supply","website":"https://www.vivaqua.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.vivaqua.be/?p=3702","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"The Tailfer plant converts raw water from the Meuse into drinking water and provides 29 % of our total production."},"reasoning":"Vivaqua states that its Tailfer plant, on the Upper Meuse between Chooz and Namur, turns Meuse water into 29% of its drinking-water output for Brussels. In 2022 its intake there was capped by flow stages (press report); whether the cap applied in 2026 was not found, and the Walloon releases only say that water production is under heavy strain.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s","meuse-chooz-flow-12d-mean-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"water-link","name":"water-link OV","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 36.00 Water collection, treatment and supply","website":"https://www.water-link.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2019/09/11/zal-de-maas-nog-drinkwater-kunnen-leveren/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Water-link, dat in Vlaanderen drinkwater levert aan meer dan 200.000 huishoudens en bedrijven, haalt een groot deel van zijn drinkwater uit het Albertkanaal, dat gevoed wordt door de Maas."},"reasoning":"The 2019 VRT report shows that the Antwerp water company draws most of its raw water from the Albert Canal, which the Meuse feeds at Liège. The Flemish drought report of October 2026 calls drinking-water supply sufficient and names no water-link restriction, so its exposure in 2026 is inferred from its source of water.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"evides","name":"Evides Waterbedrijf N.V.","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 36.00 Water collection, treatment and supply","website":"https://www.evides.nl/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.welingelichtekringen.nl/samenleving/drinkwatervoorziening-in-gevaar-stand-en-kwaliteit-maaswater-gaan-achteruit","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Dit is een alarmerende trend die kan leiden tot grote problemen in de drinkwatervoorziening”, schrijven drinkwaterbedrijven Evides, WML en Dunea."},"reasoning":"In an older press report the three Dutch water companies that use the Maas write that longer periods of low summer discharge can cause large problems for drinking-water supply; Evides fills its Biesbosch reservoirs from the lower Maas (Rijkswaterstaat lists the three intake points). The Dutch government's July 2026 letters to parliament say drinking-water stocks were sufficient, and no 2026 intake stop for low flow was found, so the exposure is structural, not observed.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"wml","name":"Waterleiding Maatschappij Limburg N.V. (WML)","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 36.00 Water collection, treatment and supply","website":"https://www.wml.nl/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.welingelichtekringen.nl/samenleving/drinkwatervoorziening-in-gevaar-stand-en-kwaliteit-maaswater-gaan-achteruit","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Dit is een alarmerende trend die kan leiden tot grote problemen in de drinkwatervoorziening”, schrijven drinkwaterbedrijven Evides, WML en Dunea."},"reasoning":"In an older press report the three Dutch water companies that use the Maas write that longer periods of low summer discharge can cause large problems for drinking-water supply; WML takes Maas water at Heel, in Limburg (Rijkswaterstaat lists the three intake points). The Dutch government's July 2026 letters to parliament say drinking-water stocks were sufficient, and no 2026 intake stop for low flow was found, so the exposure is structural, not observed.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"dunea","name":"Dunea N.V.","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 36.00 Water collection, treatment and supply","website":"https://www.dunea.nl/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.welingelichtekringen.nl/samenleving/drinkwatervoorziening-in-gevaar-stand-en-kwaliteit-maaswater-gaan-achteruit","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"Dit is een alarmerende trend die kan leiden tot grote problemen in de drinkwatervoorziening”, schrijven drinkwaterbedrijven Evides, WML en Dunea."},"reasoning":"In an older press report the three Dutch water companies that use the Maas write that longer periods of low summer discharge can cause large problems for drinking-water supply; Dunea takes river water from the Afgedamde Maas at Brakel (Rijkswaterstaat lists the three intake points). The Dutch government's July 2026 letters to parliament say drinking-water stocks were sufficient, and no 2026 intake stop for low flow was found, so the exposure is structural, not observed.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"riwa-maas","name":"RIWA-Maas, Vereniging van Rivierwaterbedrijven","country":"NL","sector":"NACE 94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.riwa-maas.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.riwa-maas.org/nl/over-riwa/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"RIWA-Maas behartigt de belangen van de Nederlandse en Vlaamse drinkwaterbedrijven die de Maas als bron voor de productie van drinkwater gebruiken."},"reasoning":"The association's own page shows that it speaks for the Dutch and Flemish water companies that draw about 450 billion litres a year from the Meuse for some 7 million consumers. It is a representative body without assets on the river; no RIWA-Maas statement on the 2026 low flow or on the Chooz thresholds was found.","series_keys":["meuse-chooz-flow-m3s"]}]},{"slug":"totalenergies","name":"TotalEnergies SE","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 35.11 Production of electricity (gas-fired)","website":"https://totalenergies.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://totalenergies.com/fr/total-en-france-0","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"En complément, nous produisons de l’électricité à partir de gaz naturel grâce à notre portefeuille centrales à cycle combiné gaz (CCGT)."},"reasoning":"TotalEnergies states that it generates power from a portfolio of combined-cycle gas plants in France; the RTE registry lists the units at Pont-sur-Sambre, Toul, Bayet and Landivisiau, and the FEBEG member list its Marchienne-au-Pont plant in Belgium. French gas output rose in summer 2026 (4.1 TWh against 2.6 TWh, RTE) and French day-ahead prices rose more than Belgian ones; the margin earned by these plants is not shown, gas itself was dearer, and part of the portfolio may sit in the venture closed with EPH in April 2026.","series_keys":["france-gas-output-mw","fr-day-ahead-eur-mwh","be-fr-day-ahead-spread-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"gazelenergie","name":"GazelEnergie (EPH group)","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 35.11 Production of electricity (gas-fired)","website":"https://gazelenergie.fr/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gazelenergie.fr/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"GazelEnergie entend être moteur de la transition énergétique de ses sites industriels (le site de Provence à Gardanne-Meyreuil, le site Émile Huchet à Saint-Avold…) pour en faire des plateformes régionales de valorisation énergétique de référence."},"reasoning":"GazelEnergie names the Émile Huchet site at Saint-Avold as its own; the RTE registry lists two combined-cycle gas units of 434 MW each there, in the same Grand Est region where nuclear output halved. That these units ran more during the Chooz stoppage is inferred from the national gas-output series; unit-level generation and margins were not read.","series_keys":["france-gas-output-mw","grand-est-nuclear-output-mw","fr-day-ahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"rwe","name":"RWE AG (RWE Generation, RWE Supply & Trading)","country":"DE","sector":"NACE 35.11 Production of electricity (gas-fired)","website":"https://www.rwe.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.tessenderlo.com/en/our-activities/t-power","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"T-Power operates as a project-financed Independent Power Producer and we get our revenues through a 15-year gas-to-electricity tolling agreement with the RWE group."},"reasoning":"Tessenderlo Group states that its 425 MW gas plant in Belgium earns its revenue through a tolling agreement with the RWE group, which therefore markets the power, and RWE Generation is on the FEBEG member list. With Belgian imports from France down by about 860 MW on average during the stoppage, a gain for such counterparties is inferred; the agreement dates from 2011 for 15 years and may have ended in 2026, and no RWE figure or statement on this episode was found.","series_keys":["be-fr-physical-flow-mw","be-day-ahead-eur-mwh","fr-de-be-commercial-exchange-mw"]}]},{"slug":"febeliec","name":"Febeliec, Federation of Belgian Industrial Energy Consumers","country":"BE","sector":"NACE 94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.febeliec.be/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.essenscia.be/febeliec-studie-belgische-industrie-kampt-met-prijshandicap-tot-17-voor-elektriciteit/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"De Belgische industrie betaalt, afhankelijk van het gebruiksprofiel, 6 tot 17% meer voor elektriciteit dan het gemiddelde in de buurlanden. Dat blijkt uit de jaarlijkse Febeliec-studie, uitgevoerd door Deloitte."},"reasoning":"Febeliec represents the large industrial power buyers of Belgium and publishes the yearly comparison of their electricity prices with neighbouring countries. The series show the Belgium minus France day-ahead gap narrowing from 40.3 to 9.2 EUR/MWh during the stoppage, so on price Belgian buyers were hit less than French ones; no Febeliec statement on Chooz was found and its member list could not be opened (site unreachable).","series_keys":["be-day-ahead-eur-mwh","be-fr-day-ahead-spread-eur-mwh","be-fr-physical-flow-mw"]}]},{"slug":"uniden","name":"UNIDEN, Union des Industries Utilisatrices d'Énergie","country":"FR","sector":"NACE 94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.uniden.fr/","exposures":[{"signal":"meuse-low-flow-chooz-treaty-shutdown-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.uniden.fr/","date":"2026-11-12","quote":"L'Union des Industries Utilisatrices d'Énergie représente les industries grandes consommatrices d'énergie présentes en France"},"reasoning":"UNIDEN speaks for the energy-intensive industries in France, the buyers most exposed to French wholesale power, whose day-ahead price rose more than the Belgian one while Chooz was stopped. RTE attributes the summer price rise first to gas; the share due to Chooz, and the part of these buyers covered by fixed-price or nuclear-indexed contracts, are not shown, and no named industrial buyer in the Ardennes could be evidenced.","series_keys":["fr-day-ahead-eur-mwh","be-fr-day-ahead-spread-eur-mwh","france-nuclear-output-mw"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"When the 12-day mean flow of the Meuse at Chooz nears the 22 and 20 m3/s of the 1998 Franco-Belgian agreement, as applied through the safety authority's rule on evaporated water, how much nuclear output does the operator withdraw and for how long, who carries the missing megawatt-hours on each side of the border, and what does a buyer or seller of French or Belgian power for winter 2026-27 and summer 2027 need to read before deciding how much to cover: the 12-day mean on the two open gauges and the operator's action to 7 December 2026, the April 2027 mean flow, the count of days under 22 m3/s in 2027, and, for the price itself, gas?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Flow from which the first safeguard measures are taken, downstream of the Chooz plants (1998 Franco-Belgian agreement, article 3.6)","value":22,"unit":"m3/s","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/id/JORFTEXT000000574792","source_date":"1998-10-30","quote":"le débit à partir duquel les premières mesures de sauvegarde seraient prises sera fixé à 22 m3/s","note":"Décret n° 98-1004 of 30 October 1998 publishing the agreement signed in Brussels on 8 September 1998. Article 3.6 applies point 3 of an exchange of letters of 23 May 1984; the quoted words are followed by 'en aval des centrales électronucléaires de Chooz'. The text names safeguard measures; it names no reactor and does not say what the measures are. The stated purpose in the same article is 'notamment le fonctionnement normal des installations de production d'eau potable'. Read through a fetch tool by the author and re-read on the page by the counter-analyst. Second source for the two figures and the twelve days: decision 2009-DC-0164 (K30, K31)."},{"id":"K2","name":"Flow below which no aggravation is permitted, downstream of the Chooz plants (same article)","value":20,"unit":"m3/s","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/id/JORFTEXT000000574792","source_date":"1998-10-30","quote":"et que le débit en dessous duquel toute aggravation ne sera plus permise s'élèvera à 20 m3/s.","note":"Same decree and article as K1. 'Aggravation' is not defined anywhere in the text."}],"constants_total":46,"constraints_total":15,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"Meuse flow at Chooz, summer and autumn 2026","to":"12-day mean under the 22 and 20 m3/s of the 1998 agreement","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L2","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"12-day mean near or under the figures of the rule","to":"the operator stops unit 2 (11 July) and unit 1 (1 August), and reconnects them on 26 October and 9 November","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L3","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"stops of the two Chooz units","to":"Grand Est nuclear output","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L4","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Grand Est nuclear output","to":"French nuclear output against 2025","status":"OBSERVED"},{"id":"L5","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"French nuclear shortfall","to":"lower French exports to Belgium, attributed to the Chooz stops","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L6","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"lower French exports to Belgium","to":"Belgium pays more than France: Belgium as the first exposed buyer","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"French and Belgian day-ahead prices and French gas-fired output, June to November 2026 (measured)","to":"a Chooz cause for the French price rising to the Belgian level","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L8","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"French price convergence","to":"the part of the French price rise attributable to Chooz","status":"UNTESTED"},{"id":"L9","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"upstream low flow at Chooz","to":"downstream water producer reduces draws on the Belgian Meuse","status":"CONSISTENT"},{"id":"L10","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"day-ahead prices and regional output on 11 November 2026","to":"cover decision of a buyer or seller of French and Belgian power for winter 2026-27 and summer 2027","status":"UNTESTED"}],"alternatives_total":4,"conjectures_total":4,"trajectories_total":3,"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-12","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes_locked":true},"locked":{"conjectures":4,"trajectories":3},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-12","constants":46,"constraints":15,"links":10,"untested":3,"contradicted":2,"alternatives":4,"conjectures":4,"trajectories":3}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. 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