{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain with statuses, 5 constants, statements of conjectures and trajectories). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","title":"India's weak 2026 monsoon, Asian rice export prices and India's rice shipments","date":"2026-09-30","mechanism":"DROUGHT","geography":[{"code":"IN","name":"India, Gangetic rice belt","latitude":25,"longitude":83},{"code":"IN-WB","name":"West Bengal, India","latitude":23,"longitude":88},{"code":"IN-BR","name":"Bihar, India","latitude":25.6,"longitude":85.1},{"code":"TH","name":"Thailand (Bangkok export quotation)","latitude":13.75,"longitude":100.5},{"code":"VN","name":"Viet Nam (export quotation)","latitude":21.03,"longitude":105.85},{"code":"BJ","name":"Benin (largest West African buyer of Indian rice in the series)","latitude":6.37,"longitude":2.43},{"code":"CI","name":"Côte d'Ivoire","latitude":5.32,"longitude":-4.03}],"source_url":"https://www.uniindia.com/national/weather-monsoon-deficit/198635","summary":"India's June–September 2026 monsoon delivered 759.4 mm, 87% of the long period average (a 12.6% deficit), the fourth lowest since 2001 according to IMD; East and Northeast India received 74% of normal, the lowest since 1901, and June alone was 35% below normal. Export quotations rose over the same months: Thai 5% white rice went from US$403/t in April to US$482/t in September 2026 and Vietnamese 5% from US$352.9/t to US$418.5/t. India kept shipping: 15.38 Mt of rice (HS 1006) left in January–August 2026 against 14.97 Mt a year earlier, although July (1.52 Mt) and August (1.60 Mt) were below the 1.88–2.37 Mt monthly pace of January–June.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":12,"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","key":"east-india-rain-mm","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"CHIRPS v2.0 daily rainfall, spatial mean over East/Northeast India box (lat 22–27°N, lon 86–95°E), summed into dekads (days 1–10, 11–20, 21–end); period is the first day of the dekad. Computed server-side by NASA/USAID SERVIR ClimateSERV (datatype 0, operation average)","unit":"mm per dekad (area mean)","geography":"IN","publisher":"chc-ucsb","source_url":"https://climateserv.servirglobal.net/api/submitDataRequest/","source_sha256":"d36470802f83a33b44b5b62f39edb156984670405ead079c29ca3bd8c829770d","collected_at":"2026-10-24T00:58:38+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-06-01","value":92.76},{"period":"2026-06-11","value":117.9},{"period":"2026-06-21","value":137.91},{"period":"2026-07-01","value":141.5},{"period":"2026-07-11","value":142.87},{"period":"2026-07-21","value":112.11},{"period":"2026-08-01","value":122.43},{"period":"2026-08-11","value":82.38},{"period":"2026-08-21","value":108.55},{"period":"2026-09-01","value":114.51},{"period":"2026-09-11","value":85.98},{"period":"2026-09-21","value":79.43}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":12,"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","key":"gangetic-belt-rain-mm","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"CHIRPS v2.0 daily rainfall, spatial mean over Gangetic rice belt box (lat 22–28°N, lon 80–90°E), summed into dekads (days 1–10, 11–20, 21–end); period is the first day of the dekad. Computed server-side by NASA/USAID SERVIR ClimateSERV (datatype 0, operation average)","unit":"mm per dekad (area mean)","geography":"IN","publisher":"chc-ucsb","source_url":"https://climateserv.servirglobal.net/api/submitDataRequest/","source_sha256":"37fc2a07e1971ae3789e4442a605b0478fa08348077878018d84f6b62c3bee05","collected_at":"2026-10-24T00:58:38+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-06-01","value":44.68},{"period":"2026-06-11","value":57},{"period":"2026-06-21","value":108.29},{"period":"2026-07-01","value":107.81},{"period":"2026-07-11","value":137.18},{"period":"2026-07-21","value":82.95},{"period":"2026-08-01","value":110.35},{"period":"2026-08-11","value":105.86},{"period":"2026-08-21","value":150.54},{"period":"2026-09-01","value":118.63},{"period":"2026-09-11","value":52.64},{"period":"2026-09-21","value":98.67}]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","key":"imd-all-india-departure-pct","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"All-India monthly rainfall departure from the long period average (rainfall as % of LPA minus 100), IMD Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season, Table 1","unit":"percent departure from LPA","geography":"IN","publisher":"imd","source_url":"https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20260930_pr_5361.pdf","source_sha256":"2eb8c406c0f8ec7248c64109e59f5312afd672fd36557d2e75a0bd0ae1437f4c","collected_at":"2026-10-24T00:58:38+00:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","key":"india-rice-exports-t","family":"FLOW","variable":"India merchandise exports, ITC-HS 1006 (rice, all forms), quantity, monthly, DGCI&S data via Department of Commerce Tradestat (MEIDB, commodity-wise export, calendar year); kilograms converted to tonnes. Sep 2026 not yet released (shown 0 on the portal, kept null)","unit":"t","geography":"IN","publisher":"dgcis","source_url":"https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/meidb/commoditywise_export","source_sha256":"eb285d026c4788b0478cb07590d405ba77141f1272466d125df77dadec1cc549","collected_at":"2026-10-24T00:58:38+00:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","key":"india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","family":"FLOW","variable":"India exports of ITC-HS 1006 (rice) to Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, Togo, Ghana and Nigeria combined, quantity, monthly, DGCI&S via Tradestat (MEIDB, commodity-wise all countries); kilograms converted to tonnes. Sep 2026 not yet released (kept null)","unit":"t","geography":"IN","publisher":"dgcis","source_url":"https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/meidb/commodity_wise_all_countries_export","source_sha256":"82ed979a4888155075ce5ab7ee660a70d5bc9948463f99db38ab7891f5251eb2","collected_at":"2026-10-24T00:58:38+00:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":21,"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","key":"rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"World Bank Pink Sheet monthly price, \"Rice, Thai 5%\" (5% broken white rice, f.o.b. Bangkok), nominal US$, CMO Historical Data Monthly updated 2 October 2026","unit":"US$ per metric tonne","geography":"TH","publisher":"world-bank","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_sha256":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154","collected_at":"2026-10-24T00:58:38+00:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-10","value":356},{"period":"2025-11","value":368},{"period":"2025-12","value":424},{"period":"2026-01","value":408},{"period":"2026-02","value":409},{"period":"2026-03","value":381},{"period":"2026-04","value":403},{"period":"2026-05","value":440},{"period":"2026-06","value":494},{"period":"2026-07","value":467},{"period":"2026-08","value":471},{"period":"2026-09","value":482}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":21,"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","key":"rice-viet-5pct-usd-t","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"World Bank Pink Sheet monthly price, \"Rice, Viet Namese 5%\" (5% broken white rice, f.o.b. Hanoi), nominal US$, CMO Historical Data Monthly updated 2 October 2026","unit":"US$ per metric tonne","geography":"VN","publisher":"world-bank","source_url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx","source_sha256":"ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154","collected_at":"2026-10-24T00:58:38+00:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2025-10","value":365.6},{"period":"2025-11","value":359.8},{"period":"2025-12","value":351.9},{"period":"2026-01","value":351.2},{"period":"2026-02","value":349.1},{"period":"2026-03","value":345.8},{"period":"2026-04","value":352.9},{"period":"2026-05","value":376.3},{"period":"2026-06","value":391.3},{"period":"2026-07","value":396.1},{"period":"2026-08","value":410.9},{"period":"2026-09","value":418.5}]}],"edition":{"title":"India's monsoon fell short and Asian rice quotes rose, but Indian rice shipments did not fall.","lead":"India's 2026 monsoon brought 87% of normal rainfall, and only 74% in the east, while the Thai 5% export quote rose from 403 to 482 dollars a tonne between April and September and reached 494 in the exporters' weekly quote of 21 October. Yet India shipped 15.38 million tonnes of rice in January to August, against 14.97 million a year earlier. A weak monsoon in the east, record stocks in the middle, and exports that did not fall.","published_at":"2026-10-24","vectors":["gangetic-belt-rain-mm","rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","india-rice-exports-t"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"gangetic-belt-rain-mm","stat":"sum","period":null,"value":1174.6000000000001},{"id":"F2","series":"gangetic-belt-rain-mm","stat":"min","period":null,"value":44.68},{"id":"F3","series":"gangetic-belt-rain-mm","stat":"value","period":"2026-09-11","value":52.64},{"id":"F4","series":"east-india-rain-mm","stat":"sum","period":null,"value":1338.3300000000002},{"id":"F5","series":"east-india-rain-mm","stat":"min","period":null,"value":79.43},{"id":"F6","series":"east-india-rain-mm","stat":"value","period":"2026-06-01","value":92.76},{"id":"F7","series":"imd-all-india-departure-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":-35},{"id":"F8","series":"imd-all-india-departure-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":1},{"id":"F9","series":"imd-all-india-departure-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":-16},{"id":"F10","series":"imd-all-india-departure-pct","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":-8},{"id":"F11","series":"rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-04","value":403},{"id":"F12","series":"rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","stat":"max","period":null,"value":494},{"id":"F13","series":"rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","stat":"last","period":null,"value":482},{"id":"F15","series":"rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-09","value":374},{"id":"F16","series":"rice-viet-5pct-usd-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-04","value":352.9},{"id":"F17","series":"rice-viet-5pct-usd-t","stat":"last","period":null,"value":418.5},{"id":"F19","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-02","value":2365922.29},{"id":"F20","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-06","value":1899442.896},{"id":"F21","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":1517003.523},{"id":"F22","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"last","period":null,"value":1600180.236},{"id":"F23","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"min","period":null,"value":1463864.492},{"id":"F24","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-07","value":1662247.582},{"id":"F25","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-08","value":1628069.079},{"id":"F26","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"mean","period":null,"value":1861233.432},{"id":"F27","series":"india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","stat":"max","period":null,"value":672718.625},{"id":"F28","series":"india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":271944.323},{"id":"F29","series":"india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","stat":"last","period":null,"value":370762.283},{"id":"F31","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"value","period":"2025-12","value":1890011.493},{"id":"F32","series":"india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","stat":"mean","period":null,"value":400834.32795},{"id":"F33","series":"india-rice-exports-t","stat":"value","period":"2026-01","value":1877019.831}],"watch":[{"indicator":"DGFT notifications amending Chapter 10 export policy (non-basmati rice)","source_url":"https://www.dgft.gov.in/CP/?opt=notification"},{"indicator":"India HS 1006 rice exports, monthly, DGCI&S Tradestat","source_url":"https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/meidb/commoditywise_export"},{"indicator":"Thai 5% white rice f.o.b., weekly, Thai Rice Exporters Association","source_url":"https://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/default_eng.htm"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"december-exports-hold-white-rice-line","signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","statement":"If no DGFT measure on non-basmati rice is notified before 31 December 2026, India's HS 1006 exports for December 2026, released by DGCI&S around late February 2027, are at or above 1,202,588 tonnes, the monthly flow a stop on non-basmati white rice would leave on the July 2026 level.","mechanism":"DROUGHT","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"India HS 1006 rice exports, December 2026 (DGCI&S Tradestat)","source_url":"https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/meidb/commoditywise_export","series_key":"india-rice-exports-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":1202588}},{"name":"DGFT notifications amending Chapter 10 export policy","source_url":"https://www.dgft.gov.in/CP/?opt=notification","series_key":null,"threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-02-28","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"thai-quote-stays-in-open-supply-band","signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","statement":"If India keeps non-basmati rice open, the World Bank Thai 5% monthly quote stays between 418.5 and 586.3 dollars a tonne in November 2026 and below 553.28 in December 2026 and January 2027; a December or January quote at or above 553.28, 12% over the 21 October weekly quote of 494, would match the band of an Indian restriction (553.28 to 612.56).","mechanism":"DROUGHT","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Thai 5% white rice, monthly, World Bank Pink Sheet: November 2026 floor","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","series_key":"rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":418.5}},{"name":"Thai 5% white rice, monthly, World Bank Pink Sheet: November 2026 ceiling","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","series_key":"rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":586.3}},{"name":"Thai 5% white rice, monthly, World Bank Pink Sheet: December 2026 and January 2027, restriction band floor","source_url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","series_key":"rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","threshold":{"op":"<","value":553.28}}],"horizon_date":"2027-02-10","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"west-africa-flow-holds-july-floor","signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","statement":"If India's total rice exports stay at or above 1,202,588 tonnes a month, its shipments to Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, Togo, Ghana and Nigeria stay at or above 271,944 tonnes, the July 2026 low, in each of October, November and December 2026, because Indian broken and parboiled are the grades that land under Dakar's importer ceiling; a month below that floor with Indian totals above the line would point to importer-side rules rather than Indian supply.","mechanism":"REGULATION","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"India HS 1006 exports to six West African importers, monthly (DGCI&S Tradestat, country-wise)","source_url":"https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/meidb/commodity_wise_all_countries_export","series_key":"india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":271944.323}},{"name":"India HS 1006 rice exports, monthly (DGCI&S Tradestat)","source_url":"https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/meidb/commoditywise_export","series_key":"india-rice-exports-t","threshold":{"op":">=","value":1202588}}],"horizon_date":"2027-02-28","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"satyam-balajee-rice-industries","name":"Satyam Balajee Rice Industries Pvt Ltd","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 311212 Rice milling","website":"https://satyambalajee.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/kakinada-port-anchors-india-s-rice-exports-as-shipment-pipeline-remains-strong-735796","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Companies such as Olam Agri, Aditya Birla Global Trading, Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), and Satyam Balajee feature prominently across multiple vessels, reflecting high market concentration."},"reasoning":"The vessel-tracking report names the firm among the main shippers out of Kakinada in March 2026, when the cargo mix was IR64 parboiled and white rice for Benin, Senegal and Guinea. A non-basmati miller-exporter would lose volume if India restricted non-basmati shipments again and would face dearer paddy after a weak kharif; neither effect is shown yet.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","imd-all-india-departure-pct"]}]},{"slug":"awl-agri-business","name":"AWL Agri Business Limited (formerly Adani Wilmar)","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 311212 Rice milling; 424510 Grain wholesalers","website":"https://www.awl.in/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/india-non-basmati-rice-vessel-lineup-1-15-mmt-weekly-shipments-june-2026-762280","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Leading exporters continue to dominate the vessel lineup, with companies such as Olam Agri, Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), MOI Commodities, Swan Agro, Reliance Retail, Balaji Rice Industries, NCEL, Adani Wilmar and Bebo International featuring prominently across multiple destinations."},"reasoning":"The June 2026 line-up, led by Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Angola, Senegal, Togo and Benin, names Adani Wilmar among the leading shippers. The company also sits on the AIREA governing body list as AWL Agri Business; how much of its rice volume is non-basmati to West Africa is not shown.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","imd-all-india-departure-pct"]}]},{"slug":"aditya-birla-global-trading","name":"Aditya Birla Global Trading","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.adityabirla.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/kakinada-port-anchors-india-s-rice-exports-as-shipment-pipeline-remains-strong-735796","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Export activity is largely controlled by large trading houses and integrated supply chain players. Companies such as Olam Agri, Aditya Birla Global Trading, Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), and Satyam Balajee feature prominently across multiple vessels"},"reasoning":"The report places the trading arm among the shippers that dominated Kakinada loadings to West Africa in March 2026. A trader without milling assets is exposed mainly to an export restriction or a minimum export price; the size of its book is not shown.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","imd-all-india-departure-pct"]}]},{"slug":"reliance-retail","name":"Reliance Retail Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain merchant wholesalers (rice export activity)","website":"https://www.relianceretail.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/india-non-basmati-rice-vessel-lineup-1-15-mmt-weekly-shipments-june-2026-762280","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Leading exporters continue to dominate the vessel lineup, with companies such as Olam Agri, Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), MOI Commodities, Swan Agro, Reliance Retail, Balaji Rice Industries, NCEL, Adani Wilmar and Bebo International featuring prominently across multiple destinations."},"reasoning":"BigMint lists Reliance Retail among the prominent shippers on the June 2026 non-basmati line-up to African destinations. Its exposure runs both ways, as an exporter facing a possible curb and as a domestic retailer facing higher rice costs after a weak monsoon; the second leg is inferred.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","imd-all-india-departure-pct"]}]},{"slug":"national-cooperative-exports","name":"National Cooperative Exports Limited (NCEL)","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain merchant wholesalers (cooperative export body)","website":"https://ncel.coop/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.taxscan.in/dgft-grants-export-permission-for-non-basmati-white-rice-and-broken-rice-through-ncel/379483","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The Directorate General of Foreign Trade ( DGFT ) vide notification, bearing number 64/2023, dated 1st March 2024, granted permission for the export of Non-Basmati White Rice and Broken Rice through the National Cooperative Exports Limited ( NCEL )."},"reasoning":"Under the 2023-2024 restrictions NCEL was the channel for government-permitted non-basmati shipments, and it also appears among the leading shippers in BigMint's June 2026 line-up. If India curbs exports again, this state-backed channel is the likely route for permitted volumes; that is an inference from the past regime, not a 2026 decision.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","imd-all-india-departure-pct"]}]},{"slug":"krbl","name":"KRBL Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 311212 Rice milling","website":"https://krblrice.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://krblrice.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"#1 Largest exporter of branded basmati rice from India #1 KRBL possesses world's largest rice milling plant in Punjab, India spread across 200 acres"},"reasoning":"The page shows a large basmati miller and exporter based in Punjab. Nothing shown ties KRBL to the West African non-basmati trade or to the 2026 deficit; exposure is inferred through paddy costs and any general tightening of rice export policy, and basmati was not the grade restricted in 2023.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","imd-all-india-departure-pct"]}]},{"slug":"pattabhi-agro-foods","name":"Pattabhi Agro Foods Private Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 311212 Rice milling","website":"https://www.pattabhiagro.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.pattabhiagro.com/pafpl/PattabhiAgro/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"We are one of the largest exporters in Indian Rice from South India."},"reasoning":"The company describes itself as a paddy buyer, miller and large South Indian rice exporter. The IMD release puts the South Peninsula at 76% of normal, so its paddy supply and costs are plausibly affected; its destinations and any West African volume are not shown.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","imd-all-india-departure-pct"]}]},{"slug":"kakinada-seaports","name":"Kakinada Seaports Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://kakinadaseaports.in/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/india-non-basmati-rice-vessel-lineup-july-2026-766987","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Kakinada continues to dominate India's non-basmati rice export programme, handling shipments primarily to West African destinations."},"reasoning":"The quote shows Kakinada as the main loading point for non-basmati rice bound for Benin, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Gambia. That the deep-water terminal operated by this company, rather than the state anchorage port, handles a given share is not shown; port throughput would fall with any export curb.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","india-rice-exports-t"]}]},{"slug":"food-corporation-of-india","name":"Food Corporation of India","country":"IN","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses (public grain procurement and storage)","website":"https://fci.gov.in/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://eng.ruralvoice.in/national/government-to-sell-fci-rice-for-ethanol-at-rs-2320-per-qtl-below-paddy-msp-omss-policy-2026-27-announced.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The Central government has announced a policy for the sale of wheat, rice and coarse grains from stocks managed by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) under the Open Market Sale Scheme - Domestic (OMSS-D) for 2026-27."},"reasoning":"FCI holds and sells the central rice stock that is the main buffer between a weak kharif crop and export policy. Business Today reports state reserves at a record 59.6 Mt on 1 September 2026 without naming FCI; how much of that stock would be released to the market is not shown.","series_keys":["imd-all-india-departure-pct","gangetic-belt-rain-mm","east-india-rain-mm","india-rice-exports-t"]}]},{"slug":"dgft","name":"Directorate General of Foreign Trade","country":"IN","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of business activities (foreign trade regulator)","website":"https://www.dgft.gov.in/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.taxscan.in/dgft-grants-export-permission-for-non-basmati-white-rice-and-broken-rice-through-ncel/379483","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The permission comes under the purview of the Foreign Trade ( Development & Regulation ) Act, 1992, which empowers the DGFT to regulate and facilitate foreign trade activities."},"reasoning":"DGFT notifications are the instrument by which India restricted and then reopened non-basmati and broken rice exports in 2022-2024. Whether it takes any 2026 measure after the monsoon is not shown; the export series through August 2026 shows shipments continuing.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t"]}]},{"slug":"indian-rice-exporters-federation","name":"Indian Rice Exporters' Federation (IREF)","country":"IN","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.iref.org.in/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.outlookbusiness.com/news/indian-rice-draws-global-interest-3317-buyers-from-138-nations-register-for-birc-2026-irefs-garg","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The objective of BIRC 2026 is to convert the growing international interest into new commercial opportunities and long-term relationships for Indian rice exporters, the IREF said."},"reasoning":"IREF represents Indian rice exporters and ran BIRC 2026 on 23-25 October, where the same article lists Benin and Nigeria among the largest buyer registrations. As the exporters' body it would be expected to argue against any export curb; its position on the 2026 crop is not quoted here.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t"]}]},{"slug":"olam-agri","name":"Olam Agri","country":"SG","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.olamagri.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/india-rice-exports-surge-w-o-w-on-africa-led-shipments-711489","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Additionally, Olam Agri India Private Limited shipped 8,500 t of bagged rice to Dakar, Senegal, reflecting steady offtake from Francophone West Africa, where Indian rice continues to compete on price against Southeast Asian origins."},"reasoning":"Olam Agri ships Indian rice to West Africa and distributes branded rice there; Business Today also quotes its India unit on low reservoirs. Its financing supports shipments from India, Thailand and Vietnam, so an Indian curb would shift its origin mix rather than stop its trade; the margin effect is inferred.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","imd-all-india-departure-pct","rice-thai-5pct-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"wilmar-international","name":"Wilmar International Limited","country":"SG","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.wilmar-international.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/india-rice-exports-surge-w-o-w-on-africa-led-shipments-711489","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Liberia remained the dominant destination, with two large consignments totalling 53,000 t discharged at Monrovia. Wilmar International led weekly shipments with 28,000 t, followed closely by Satyam Balajee Rice Industries Pvt Ltd at 25,000 t."},"reasoning":"The quote shows Wilmar as the largest shipper out of Kakinada in the first week of 2026, to Liberia, which is outside the six-country West African series. The VFA member list carries CTY CỔ PHẦN ĐẦU TƯ VINH PHÁT (Vinh Phat Investment JSC) without Wilmar's name, so whether Wilmar holds a Vietnamese rice exporter and can switch origin is not shown, nor are ownership and volumes.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","rice-viet-5pct-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"louis-dreyfus-company","name":"Louis Dreyfus Company B.V.","country":"NL","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.ldc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/kakinada-port-anchors-india-s-rice-exports-as-shipment-pipeline-remains-strong-735796","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Companies such as Olam Agri, Aditya Birla Global Trading, Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC), and Satyam Balajee feature prominently across multiple vessels, reflecting high market concentration."},"reasoning":"LDC is named among the leading shippers of Indian non-basmati rice to West Africa in March and again in June 2026. A global merchant can source from Thailand or Vietnam if India restricts; the cost of switching shows up in the Thai and Vietnamese quotes, which is an inference.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","rice-viet-5pct-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"fmo-dutch-development-bank","name":"FMO, Netherlands Development Finance Company","country":"NL","sector":"NACE K64.92 Other credit granting (development finance)","website":"https://www.fmo.nl/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-agriculture/0303-53400-singapore-based-olam-agri-secures-100-million-to-expand-rice-shipments-to-africa","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Olam Agri, a subsidiary of Singapore-based Olam Group, has secured a $100 million, seven-year financing facility from Dutch development bank FMO."},"reasoning":"The article says the facility finances rice shipments from India, Thailand and Vietnam to African countries. FMO is a remote lender to the trade flow, not a trader; its credit risk would only change if a disruption hit the borrower, which is not shown.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-west-africa-t"]}]},{"slug":"thai-rice-exporters-association","name":"Thai Rice Exporters Association","country":"TH","sector":"NACE S94.11 Activities of business and employers membership organisations","website":"https://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnews/thai-rice-exports-slide-as-global-supply-surges-industry-warns-of-five-year-low-537134","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Representatives of the Thai Rice Exporters Association brief the media on falling rice exports, warning that rising global supply and a strong baht could push Thailand’s shipments to a five-year low in 2026."},"reasoning":"In February 2026 the association blamed record Indian supply for weak Thai exports. Thai 5% quotes have since risen from US$381/t in March to US$482/t in September, so its members gain if India curbs exports; whether Thai volumes recover is not shown.","series_keys":["rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","india-rice-exports-t"]}]},{"slug":"thailand-department-of-foreign-trade","name":"Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce (Thailand)","country":"TH","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of business activities (foreign trade)","website":"https://www.dft.go.th/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40072551","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"The Department of Foreign Trade and the Thai Rice Exporters Association will reassess El Niño and the Middle East conflict towards the end of 2026 before settling the 2027 export forecast."},"reasoning":"The same article reports Thai exports down 19.26% in January-September 2026, with exporters facing competition from India's large harvest and stocks. The department sets Thailand's export targets and runs government-to-government sales; a response to an Indian curb is inferred, not announced.","series_keys":["rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","india-rice-exports-t"]}]},{"slug":"asia-golden-rice","name":"Asia Golden Rice Co., Ltd.","country":"TH","sector":"NAICS 311212 Rice milling; 424510 Grain wholesalers","website":"https://www.asiagoldenrice.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.asiagoldenrice.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"We proudly hold the position of Thailand's leading rice exporter, celebrated for our honesty and trustworthiness. With competitive prices and exceptional service, we've earned our place as the number one choice."},"reasoning":"The page shows a major Thai exporter and member of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. Nothing shown links it to West Africa or to the Indian monsoon; it is listed because Thai 5% white rice is the closest substitute if Indian supply tightens.","series_keys":["rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","india-rice-exports-t"]}]},{"slug":"capital-rice","name":"Capital Rice Co., Ltd.","country":"TH","sector":"NAICS 311212 Rice milling; 424510 Grain wholesalers","website":"https://www.capitalrice.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.capitalrice.com/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Capital Rice Co., Ltd. exported quality Thai rice to all parts of the world. Today, is well recognized for both the quality of its product and the reliability of its service."},"reasoning":"The page shows a Thai exporter with its own wharf for direct vessel loading. Its destinations and any link to the Indian shortfall are not shown; its exposure is inferred from Thai export prices.","series_keys":["rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","india-rice-exports-t"]}]},{"slug":"vinafood-2","name":"Southern Food Corporation (Vinafood II)","country":"VN","sector":"NAICS 311212 Rice milling; 424510 Grain wholesalers","website":"https://vinafood2.com.vn/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://vinafood2.com.vn/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Hàng năm, Vinafood II bán ra với tổng sản lượng bình quân từ 2,8 – 3,0 triệu tấn gạo đạt kim ngạch xuất khẩu hơn 01 tỷ USD/năm"},"reasoning":"The state-owned group says it sells 2.8-3.0 Mt of rice a year with export turnover above US$1 billion; it is on the Vietnam Food Association member list. Its sales to West Africa and any response to India are not shown; exposure is inferred from the Vietnamese 5% quote, which rose to US$418.5/t in September 2026.","series_keys":["rice-viet-5pct-usd-t","india-rice-exports-t"]}]},{"slug":"loc-troi-group","name":"Loc Troi Group JSC","country":"VN","sector":"NAICS 311212 Rice milling","website":"https://www.loctroi.vn/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1778395/viet-nam-s-rice-exports-to-senegal-surge-nearly-30-fold.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Rice packaging for export at the factory of Thảo Sơn One Member Limited Liability Food Company, under Lộc Trời Group JSC."},"reasoning":"The photo caption illustrates an article on Vietnamese rice exports to Senegal, which reached 168,020 t in 2025, but it does not say that Loc Troi ships to Senegal. It is listed as a Vietnamese exporter on the VFA member list; any gain from an Indian curb is inferred.","series_keys":["rice-viet-5pct-usd-t","india-rice-exports-t","india-rice-exports-west-africa-t"]}]},{"slug":"vietnam-ministry-of-agriculture-and-environment","name":"Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (Viet Nam)","country":"VN","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of business activities (agriculture and trade)","website":"https://www.mae.gov.vn/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://vietnamnet.vn/en/china-becomes-vietnam-s-second-largest-rice-export-market-2561724.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"According to the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam exported 377,400 tons of rice worth $205.6 million in September."},"reasoning":"The quote shows the ministry tracking Vietnamese exports, and the same article cites monsoon conditions in India and the kharif area as factors supporting export prices. That last sentence is not explicitly attributed to the ministry, so the link to the Indian shortfall is inferred.","series_keys":["rice-viet-5pct-usd-t","india-rice-exports-t"]}]},{"slug":"pakistan-ministry-of-commerce","name":"Ministry of Commerce (Pakistan)","country":"PK","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of business activities (foreign trade)","website":"https://www.commerce.gov.pk/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/07/04/cheaper-indian-rice-hits-pakistans-export-market-as-afghan-border-closure-causes-dollar11bn-losses","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Ministry officials said Indian rice was being sold at around $1,100 per tonne, compared with approximately $1,300 per tonne for Pakistani rice, making it difficult for Pakistani exporters to compete in price-sensitive markets."},"reasoning":"In July 2026 the ministry told parliament that Pakistani rice was losing share to cheaper Indian rice. Pakistan competes with India in the same price-sensitive markets, so an Indian curb would likely help its exporters; which grades the per-tonne figures refer to is not stated, and they are not comparable with the 5% white quotes in the series.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-t","rice-thai-5pct-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"senegal-ministry-of-industry-and-trade","name":"Ministère de l'Industrie et du Commerce (Senegal)","country":"SN","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of business activities (trade)","website":"https://commerce.gouv.sn/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://bizhub.vietnamnews.vn/senegal-suspends-rice-imports-for-one-month-post394138.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"the Senegalese Ministry of Industry and Trade decided to halt imports on November 11, aiming to ease pressure on domestic rice farmers as imported rice is more price-competitive."},"reasoning":"The ministry licenses rice imports and caps retail prices; it suspended import declarations in November 2025 and again for one month on 8 July 2026. Senegal buys mostly Indian broken rice, so a curb in India would raise its import bill against a fixed retail price; that pressure is inferred.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","rice-viet-5pct-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"saed-senegal","name":"Société d'aménagement et d'exploitation des terres du delta du fleuve Sénégal (SAED)","country":"SN","sector":"NACE A01.61 Support activities for crop production (irrigated rice development)","website":"https://www.saed.sn/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.seneplus.com/article/le-senegal-serre-la-vis-sur-les-importations-pour-ecouler-le-riz-local","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Selon les estimations de la SAED, 37 000 tonnes de riz blanc sont actuellement disponibles sur le marché. Les autorités ont décidé de répartir ces volumes entre les importateurs afin d'accélérer leur écoulement."},"reasoning":"SAED manages the irrigated Senegal River valley rice and its stock estimate underpins the July 2026 rule tying import quotas to purchases of local rice. Dearer Indian rice would make local rice easier to sell; that effect is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-west-africa-t"]}]},{"slug":"groupe-carre-d-or","name":"Groupe Carré d'Or","country":"CI","sector":"NAICS 424490 Other grocery and related products merchant wholesalers (rice import and distribution)","website":"https://www.carredor.org/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://fr.allafrica.com/stories/202512090565.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Au niveau des grands importateurs, notamment le groupe Carré d'Or, les capacités de stockage témoignent d'un approvisionnement pleinement maîtrisé."},"reasoning":"The December 2025 report names Carré d'Or as a large Abidjan rice importer with 15 to 17 warehouses. Côte d'Ivoire was the largest destination in BigMint's June 2026 Indian line-up, but the article does not give Carré d'Or's origins; exposure to Indian supply is inferred.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","rice-viet-5pct-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"cote-d-ivoire-ministry-of-commerce","name":"Ministère du Commerce et de l'Industrie (Côte d'Ivoire)","country":"CI","sector":"NACE O84.13 Regulation of business activities (trade)","website":"https://www.commerce.gouv.ci/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://fr.allafrica.com/stories/202512090565.html","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"Les stocks nationaux sont estimés à plus de 358 000 tonnes, représentant quatre à cinq mois de consommation, sans compter les arrivages attendus au port d'Abidjan durant le mois de décembre. Une situation qui écarte tout risque de rupture sur le marché. Le ministère du Commerce et de l'Industrie assure maintenir une vigilance constante."},"reasoning":"The ministry monitors rice stocks and enforces retail prices; stocks of four to five months were reported in December 2025, before the 2026 monsoon. That cover would absorb a short Indian disruption but not a long one; the threshold is inferred.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-west-africa-t","rice-thai-5pct-usd-t","rice-viet-5pct-usd-t"]}]},{"slug":"port-autonome-de-cotonou","name":"Port Autonome de Cotonou","country":"BJ","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://www.portdecotonou.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/benins-new-rice-import-rules-may-disrupt-cotonou-shipments-sources/","date":"2026-10-24","quote":"An Indian importer said that these stringent requirements will significantly impact rice trade at Cotonou port."},"reasoning":"Benin was the largest West African buyer of Indian rice in the series, and the April 2026 Benin licensing rules were reported to put Indian cargoes for Cotonou on hold. Rice volumes through the port depend on both Indian export policy and Benin's own rules; the share re-exported to Nigeria is not shown.","series_keys":["india-rice-exports-west-africa-t"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"With the 2026 monsoon at 87% of normal and the east at 74%, but government rice stocks at five times the October norm, does India's DGFT restrict non-basmati rice exports before 31 January 2027 as it did in July 2023, or keep shipping; and should importers and governments in Dakar, Abidjan and Cotonou bring tenders forward or switch to Thai and Vietnamese origin, at what price gap, while Thai and Vietnamese exporters and the Kakinada shippers position for either outcome?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"All-India southwest monsoon rainfall 2026, share of the long period average","value":87,"unit":"percent of LPA","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20260930_pr_5361.pdf","source_date":"2026-09-30","quote":"Rainfall over the country as a whole during the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June- September) was 87% of its long period average (LPA). All India Summer monsoon rainfall was 759.4 mm which is 4th lowest since 2001 and 13th lowest since 1901.","note":"IMD, Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season (pr_5361), highlights. The same release prints 1017.1 mm for East & Northeast India in the highlights and 1016.3 mm in Table 1; both are kept as published."},{"id":"K2","name":"East & Northeast India seasonal rainfall 2026, share of LPA","value":74,"unit":"percent of LPA","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20260930_pr_5361.pdf","source_date":"2026-09-30","quote":"Seasonal rainfall over Northwest India, Central India, South Peninsula, and Northeast India were 94.1%, 97%, 76% and 74% of the respective LPA. Rainfall over East & Northeast India was 1017.1 mm which is lowest since 1901","note":"Table 1 of the same release gives East & Northeast India 1016.3 mm against an LPA of 1367.3 mm, 74%."},{"id":"K3","name":"Monsoon core zone rainfall 2026","value":779.9,"unit":"mm, June to September","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20260930_pr_5361.pdf","source_date":"2026-09-30","quote":"The southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rain-fed agriculture regions in the country, received 779.9mm rainfall which is less the lower limit of normal category (782.8 to 881.2).","note":"The lower limit of the normal category is 782.8 mm; the core zone sits 2.9 mm below it. Wording kept as printed."},{"id":"K4","name":"Kharif rice area sown, all India, as on 4 September 2026","value":421.82,"unit":"lakh hectares","kind":"CALENDAR","source_url":"https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2307791&lang=1&reg=3","source_date":"2026-09-08","quote":"Rice: About 421.82 lakh ha area coverage under rice has been reported as compared to 438.19 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year, showing a decrease of 16.37 lakh ha.","note":"Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare weekly crop area report; the release names Karnataka, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Maharashtra for the decrease. No later weekly release was found before 24 October 2026."},{"id":"K5","name":"Kharif rice area sown, all India, corresponding week of 2025","value":438.19,"unit":"lakh hectares","kind":"CALENDAR","source_url":"https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2307791&lang=1&reg=3","source_date":"2026-09-08","quote":"Rice: About 421.82 lakh ha area coverage under rice has been reported as compared to 438.19 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year, showing a decrease of 16.37 lakh ha."}],"constants_total":69,"constraints":[{"id":"C1","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C2","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C3","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C4","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C5","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C6","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C7","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C8","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C9","kind":"CONTRACT"},{"id":"C10","kind":"REGULATORY"},{"id":"C11","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C12","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C13","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C14","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C15","kind":"REGULATORY"},{"id":"C16","kind":"REGULATORY"},{"id":"C17","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C18","kind":"SUPPLY"}],"constraints_total":18,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"June rainfall deficit","to":"kharif rice area sown","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":75},"statement":"June 2026 rainfall was 35% below normal across India and the Gangetic box recorded 44.7 mm in the first dekad; transplanting was delayed and the rice area on 4 September stood 3.7% below 2025. Area is a constant from the ministry, not a series, so the link is validated by C1 rather than observed."},{"id":"L2","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"eastern seasonal deficit on unirrigated rice","to":"kharif rice yield and crop size","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":60,"max":120},"statement":"East & Northeast India received 74% of normal, the lowest since 1901; by the 2023-24 irrigation shares (West Bengal 59.6%, Bihar 78.1%, Jharkhand 4.5%) the exposed rice is the unirrigated two fifths of West Bengal and almost all of Jharkhand, and the east box's driest dekad fell in late September at grain filling. USDA cut the national kharif crop by 4.7 million tonnes and places moisture stress in southern and eastern states, but the ministry's area report puts the sowing loss in the south, no state yield or production figure exists, the first advance estimates were not released and the Atlas holds no state series. The eastern yield loss is untested, not established; a West Bengal and Bihar production estimate is the series to collect."},{"id":"L3","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Indian monsoon deficit","to":"Thai and Vietnamese 5% export quotes","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":45},"statement":"Thai 5% rose from 403 dollars in April to 494 in June and 482 in September, Viet Nam 5% from 352.9 to 418.5, in the months of the Indian deficit: the two ends co-move in the series. The mechanism is not shown to be Indian. The Thai Commerce Ministry attributes current buying to Philippine and Malaysian El Niño purchases; USDA's October circular has Thai quotes down 24 dollars on weak sales while Indian quotes rose 10 to 384; the Thai cabinet's 40.93 billion baht loan scheme holds up to 3 million tonnes of main-crop paddy off the market; the Philippine Department of Agriculture cancelled the clearance of a 12,480 tonne Vietnamese cargo ahead of its harvest; floods lifted Thai quotes in early October. The Indian channel shows first in Indian quotes, which the Atlas does not hold. The link is consistent with India's 39% share of world trade (C7); the Thai and Philippine causes are carried by A1."},{"id":"L4","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Indian monsoon deficit","to":"Indian rice shipments","status":"CONTRADICTED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":90},"statement":"If the deficit had tightened Indian supply, shipments would have fallen below the prior year. They did not: July and August 2026 (1.52 and 1.60 million tonnes) sit within 9% of July and August 2025 (1.66 and 1.63), the seasonal trough, and January to August 2026 ran 2.7% above 2025. The series contradicts a supply-driven slowdown through August."},{"id":"L5","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"record government stocks and open-market sales","to":"domestic retail rice price","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":120},"statement":"Stocks at five times the October norm, sold under OMSS and to ethanol distilleries, are the buffer between the crop and the domestic price, but the one measurable price series says the price is rising: MoSPI's September 2026 CPI puts food inflation at 7.74% and the rice item at 8.25% year on year (5.89% in August), 3.25 points short of the 11.5% retail rise cited in July 2023. In July 2023 the FCI rice stock stood at 253.49 lakh tonnes, 1.87 times the July norm, and the ban came anyway. Both forces are real and neither is measured by an Atlas series: the Department of Consumer Affairs retail rice price is the first series to collect."},{"id":"L6","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"domestic price and crop estimate","to":"DGFT decision on non-basmati exports","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":120},"statement":"The DGFT restricted in July 2023 when retail prices were up 11.5% on the year and crop prospects were poor; it now also holds APEDA contract registration. Whether the 2026 crop cut and any price rise cross its threshold is not measurable with the Atlas series. Needed: the Department of Consumer Affairs retail rice price (monthly), the FCI monthly stock position, and the ministry's first advance estimate when released."},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"an Indian restriction","to":"Thai and Vietnamese quotes","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":7,"max":45},"statement":"In 2023 world rice prices rose 12 to 14% within weeks of the ban and Thai 5% averaged 635 dollars in August against 547 in July. With India at 39% of world trade and the substitutes able to load about 2.55 million tonnes in the quarter, a 2026 restriction would move the quotes by at least the 2023 proportion."},{"id":"L8","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Thai and Vietnamese quotes and the Dakar cap","to":"West African tender timing and origin switching","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":90},"statement":"Importers in Dakar, Abidjan and Cotonou choose between Indian parboiled and broken rice at 446 dollars landed and Thai or Vietnamese 5% at 490 to 552 landed, under a 500 dollar retail cap in Senegal. No monthly import-by-origin series for Senegal or Côte d'Ivoire is in the Atlas, nor a Dakar wholesale price, so the switching cannot yet be measured."}],"alternatives":[{"id":"A1","status":"SUPPORTED"},{"id":"A2","status":"SUPPORTED"},{"id":"A3","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A4","status":"OPEN"}],"alternatives_total":4,"conjectures":[{"locked":true,"id":"J1","statement":"No ban, minimum export price or duty on non-basmati rice is notified before 31 January 2027, on condition that the domestic retail price does not reproduce the 2023 trigger: the surplus over the October norm covers about 1.9 years of exports, ten times the forecast kharif shortfall, but CPI rice inflation reached 8.25% in September 2026 (food 7.74%), 3.25 points below the 11.5% retail rise of July 2023, and in July 2023 a stock at 1.87 times the norm did not stop the ban. The conjecture holds while the Department of Consumer Affairs retail series, not yet collected, stays below that line.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"LOW","tier":"FREE"},{"locked":true,"id":"J2","statement":"The eastern deficit reaches Dakar through the grade Senegal buys, 100% broken rice (98% of its imports), and the ceiling its importers face, 270,000 FCFA a tonne (about 461 dollars at the ECB rate of 23 October): Indian 100% broken at about 320 dollars f.o.b. plus 70 of freight lands at 390, 71 dollars under the ceiling, while Thai A1 Super broken at 424 lands at 494, 33 dollars above it, and Vietnamese 5% at 418.5 lands 28 above. A switch from Indian to Thai or Vietnamese origin is not possible under the arrêté without a subsidy or a cap revision; Viet Nam's 2025 sales to Senegal were fragrant and 100% broken, and the Thai-Viet 5% spread (63.5 dollars in September) orders the two substitutes without being the grade traded. Côte d'Ivoire, with no cap in the dossier, is exposed through price alone.","scope":"CROSS_GEOGRAPHY","confidence":"LOW","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J3","statement":"The state's own arithmetic argues against a ban: FCI sells rice to ethanol distilleries at 2,320 rupees a quintal while the paddy MSP implies 3,643 rupees of paddy per quintal of rice before milling and storage, a loss of about 1,323 rupees a quintal on every quintal kept at home. A restriction would retain a quarter of exports, 6 million tonnes, that the public distribution and ethanol channels would have to absorb at that loss.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J4","statement":"If India restricts, the instrument is a minimum export price in the 2024 template rather than a ban: a 490 dollar floor sits 106 dollars above the Indian white 5% quote of 9 October (384) and 8 above the September Thai 5%, which halts white rice as surely as a ban while parboiled non-basmati, 40.9% of January to August 2026 shipments and the grade on the Kakinada line-ups to West Africa, keeps moving. Shipments then fall toward the white-only line of 1.20 million tonnes a month (20.7% of 2026 shipments removed), or 1.08 million if broken rice (8.1%) is stopped with it as in 2022-23, and below that only if parboiled is taxed as in August 2023.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"LOW","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J5","statement":"Freight is the second sector exposed on the India-West Africa lane: at 70 to 75 dollars a tonne, bulk freight is 18.6% of the Indian parboiled f.o.b. price. A restriction idles the Kakinada to West Africa programme that carries 23% of Indian rice exports, and the freight range, which held while sales slowed in October, falls before the Thai quote has finished rising.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"LOW","tier":"PREMIUM"}],"trajectories":[{"locked":true,"id":"T1","name":"Indian rice shipments and the Thai 5% quote to the end of January 2027","horizon":{"from":"2026-10-24","to":"2027-01-31"},"tier":"PREMIUM","branches":[{"id":"shipping-continues","condition":{"indicator":"India HS 1006 exports, December 2026","series_key":"india-rice-exports-t","op":">=","value":1202587.5963778133,"by":"2026-12-31"}},{"id":"restriction-or-mep","condition":{"indicator":"India HS 1006 exports, December 2026","series_key":"india-rice-exports-t","op":"<","value":1202587.5963778133,"by":"2026-12-31"}}]}],"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-10-24","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes":"Drafted from seven series, a minimal edition of 31 figures and 39 sourced constants. Open points for the reviewer: (1) the irrigation shares K10 and K11 are from the 2007-08 state table, the latest fetched; (2) K15, K28, K29, K33, K34, K35, K36, K38 and K39 are USDA projections or secondary reports of official data, flagged in their notes; (3) the lower bound of the restriction branch applies the 2023 white-rice share twice, a structural assumption to be replaced by DGCI&S monthly exports for 2023-24 once collected; (4) the Senegal cap in C9 is compared with f.o.b. plus freight only, and the Pink Sheet 5% grades differ from the broken and parboiled grades West Africa buys; (5) L3 is marked OBSERVED on co-movement while A1 stays OPEN; (6) K35 and K36 (BigMint) were read through a fetch proxy because the site refuses scripted downloads, so their quotes are not held in the saved originals; (7) the ministry's first advance estimates and the FCI 1 October stock position were not available on 24 October 2026. | Counter-analysis (atlas-counter-analyst, 2026-10-24, docs/night-2026-10-24/india-monsoon-deficit-rice-export-cover-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md): verdict REWORK, no REJECT. All 39 constants fetched again; 37 verbatim and ACCEPT; K10 and K11 REWORK because Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2024, Table 4.4 (c) (2023-24, provisional) gives West Bengal rice 59.6% irrigated, Jharkhand 4.5%, Bihar 78.1%, All-India 69.5%, so C4 and L2 rest on a superseded table. K18's 25% is the 2022-23 white-rice share; DGCI&S 8-digit for Jan-Aug 2026 gives white 20.7%, parboiled non-basmati 40.9%, basmati 28.3%, broken 8.1%: C13's line becomes about 1.20 Mt (white only) or 1.08 Mt (white plus broken), and the restriction branch's 0.853 Mt lower bound applies the share twice (REWORK C13, J4, T1). C9/J2 compare the wrong level and grade: Senegal's arrete 000685 caps importers at 270,000 FCFA/t (about $461 at the ECB rate of 23 Oct 2026) and Senegal imports 98% 100%-broken rice, so headroom for Indian parboiled is about $15 and Thai A1 Super broken lands about $33 above the ceiling; the J2 check against C12 is INCONCLUSIVE until C12 is reworked (flows are not capacities: Thailand shipped 9.9 Mt in 2023/24 and holds 4.6 Mt of stocks per USDA FAS). L3 OBSERVED is a co-movement; the Thai rise has Thai and Philippine causes (Thai Commerce Ministry 20 Oct, Philippine SPS clearance halt 14 Sep, USDA WMT Oct: Thai -$24 on weak sales while Indian quotes +$10 on limited availability, Thai floods, THB 58.9 bn paddy-loan package) and A1 should be SUPPORTED with a discriminator that can trigger (1.9 Mt/month cannot in Q4). L5/J1: MoSPI CPI September 2026 food 7.74% and rice 8.25% (single-sourced item) approach the 2023 trigger, and in July 2023 a rice stock at 1.9x the norm did not prevent the ban; J1 statement and confidence to be made conditional. T1: a December month between 1.14 and 1.52 Mt triggers neither branch although USDA/ERS already describe that pace; the Thai Nov and Jan tops (494) are already touched by the TREA weekly quote of 21 Oct (494). L4 CONTRADICTED is confirmed at grade level (Aug 2026 vs 2025: parboiled 632 vs 609 kt, white 384 vs 381, only broken fell). FCI rows (1 Aug 402.01 rice + 353.47 paddy LMT) reproduce USDA's 63.9 Mt. Organisations: 27 ACCEPT, wilmar reasoning REWORK (VFA entry is Vinh Phat Investment JSC, no Wilmar in the name); Philippines DA/BPI, APEDA, DFPD and a Beninese or Nigerian importer are missing. No source publishes the three series side by side; the narrative that India's monsoon supports Asian quotes is public. Status stays DRAFT. Rework round 1 applied on 2026-10-24T03:10Z: items K10/K11/C4/L2 (ASG 2024 Table 4.4(c), PIB area report, L2 UNTESTED), C13/C17/C18/J4/T1 (DGCI&S 8-digit shares for January to August 2026 applied once, two exhaustive December branches at the 1.20 million tonne line, Thai bands on TREA 494 and the Pink Sheet Q3 2024 level), L3 CONSISTENT and A1 SUPPORTED with the Thai and Philippine constants K55 to K62, L5 UNTESTED and J1 LOW with MoSPI CPI and the July 2023 precedent (C15, C16), C9/J2 on the arrêté 000685 importer ceiling and 100%-broken grades, C12 as observed flows against 2023/24 loadings and stocks, wilmar reasoning in organisations.json; kept as disagreement and left as drafted: C1, C5, C6, C7, J3 (confidence MEDIUM) and the note of K29. | Round 2 (atlas-counter-analyst, 2026-10-24, final reconciliation, COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md Round 2): verdict ACCEPTED. All 32 touched constants (K10, K11, K40-K69) verbatim at their sources (ASG 2024 Table 4.4(c) rows, Tradestat 4/6/8-digit rows re-queried, TREA, USDA WMT, ERS RCS-26I, MoSPI, Ventura, Factly, PIB backgrounder 15 Oct 2025, Senego, ECB 90-day XML, BCEAO, Pink Sheet Feb 2025, Nation, Daily Tribune, Commodity Board); C4, C9, C12, C13, C15-C18, the J2 quantity and all six T1 points recompute exactly; the two T1 conditions are exhaustive at 1,202,588 t; the J2 check against C12 is now justified. Remaining disagreements kept verbatim, non-blocking: C7 sentence 'cannot replace it within the horizon' now contradicted by the reworked C12; C1 wording on the southern area loss; J3 confidence MEDIUM (reviewer would hold LOW; a ban keeps private rice private); K18 note stale; J4 and J5 falsifiers still cite the 1.14 Mt line and J2 falsifier the retail cap; K54 single secondary of the eSankhyiki item index; K51, K59, K62, K63, K64 secondary and flagged; organisations still lack Philippines DA/BPI, APEDA, DFPD and a Beninese or Nigerian importer; evidence dates are access dates. Status set to REVIEWED; PUBLISHED remains the owner's decision."},"locked":{"conjectures":5,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-10-24","constants":69,"constraints":18,"links":8,"untested":4,"contradicted":1,"alternatives":4,"conjectures":5,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"Premium newsletter — published pack library","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Access to every published pack, old and new, while your official Premium right is valid; new packs join the same library","Three formats per pack: dossier bundle as JSON, organisations as CSV and redistributable series as CSV","Provenance, licences, hashes and review notes where available; restricted observations withheld and unfinished dossiers labelled honestly","A member key for available full data on the JSON API and MCP; no free newsletter subscription without separate consent"],"delivery":"Download the archive from your native account while the official right is valid. 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