{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain with statuses, 5 constants, statements of conjectures and trajectories). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","title":"Hormuz disruption, Qatari LNG and European gas and power, January–October 2026","date":"2026-09-24","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","geography":[{"code":"QA","name":"Ras Laffan, Qatar (LNG export complex)","latitude":25.92,"longitude":51.55},{"code":"IR","name":"Strait of Hormuz","latitude":26.57,"longitude":56.25},{"code":"DE","name":"Germany","latitude":51.16,"longitude":10.45},{"code":"IT","name":"Italy","latitude":41.87,"longitude":12.57}],"source_url":"https://gcaptain.com/qatar-boosts-lng-traffic-via-hormuz-as-global-shortage-bites/","summary":"IMF PortWatch counted 68.1 transits a day through the Strait of Hormuz (37.0 tankers) from 1 January to 27 February 2026, against 3.6 a day (0.9 tankers) from 1 September to 18 October; daily calls fell from 57 on 28 February to 4 on 2 March. EU gas in storage bottomed at 313.8 TWh on 31 March and stood at 845.0 TWh on 23 October (GIE AGSI). The DE-LU day-ahead power price averaged 104.5 EUR/MWh in January–February and 154.7 EUR/MWh from 1 September to 23 October.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":297,"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","key":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Day-ahead wholesale electricity price, bidding zone DE-LU, daily average (SMARD filter 4169)","unit":"EUR/MWh","geography":"DE","publisher":"bnetza-smard","source_url":"https://www.smard.de/app/chart_data/4169/DE/4169_DE_day_1767222000000.json","source_sha256":"cd09f65a7d214e264d82c530a97c724abb97e966c0ab047e4185cbbb8b80f5e7","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:08:21+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-13","value":160.23},{"period":"2026-10-14","value":178.99},{"period":"2026-10-15","value":187.3},{"period":"2026-10-16","value":210.67},{"period":"2026-10-17","value":168.27},{"period":"2026-10-18","value":175.21},{"period":"2026-10-19","value":208.44},{"period":"2026-10-20","value":195.66},{"period":"2026-10-21","value":211.94},{"period":"2026-10-22","value":148.61},{"period":"2026-10-23","value":137.59},{"period":"2026-10-24","value":30.12}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":296,"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","key":"eu-gas-storage-twh","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Gas in storage, EU aggregate, end of gas day (GIE AGSI+)","unit":"TWh","geography":"EU","publisher":"gie-agsi","source_url":"https://agsi.gie.eu/api/data/eu?from=2026-01-01&to=2026-10-23&size=300","source_sha256":"02a5f00d3fde7509c29291d06bbb02f301c952b84429381fcc246e66d1ce31c6","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:08:21+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"OPEN_ATTRIBUTION","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-10-12","value":837.6183},{"period":"2026-10-13","value":838.9307},{"period":"2026-10-14","value":839.9244},{"period":"2026-10-15","value":840.801},{"period":"2026-10-16","value":841.8429},{"period":"2026-10-17","value":843.6983},{"period":"2026-10-18","value":844.9456},{"period":"2026-10-19","value":845.1389},{"period":"2026-10-20","value":844.7607},{"period":"2026-10-21","value":844.9768},{"period":"2026-10-22","value":844.7665},{"period":"2026-10-23","value":845.0462}]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","key":"hormuz-transits-tanker","family":"FLOW","variable":"Daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, tankers (IMF PortWatch, AIS-based estimate)","unit":"vessels per day","geography":"IR","publisher":"imf-portwatch","source_url":"https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portname%3D%27Strait%20of%20Hormuz%27%20AND%20date%20%3E%3D%20DATE%20%272026-01-01%27&outFields=date,n_total,n_tanker,n_container,n_dry_bulk&orderByFields=date%20ASC&f=json","source_sha256":"dff4d1d36b74d4a36277687edcf8bd227f7caf31b53927386d03937f23c014ae","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:08:21+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","key":"hormuz-transits-total","family":"FLOW","variable":"Daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, all vessel types (IMF PortWatch, AIS-based estimate)","unit":"vessels per day","geography":"IR","publisher":"imf-portwatch","source_url":"https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query?where=portname%3D%27Strait%20of%20Hormuz%27%20AND%20date%20%3E%3D%20DATE%20%272026-01-01%27&outFields=date,n_total,n_tanker,n_container,n_dry_bulk&orderByFields=date%20ASC&f=json","source_sha256":"dff4d1d36b74d4a36277687edcf8bd227f7caf31b53927386d03937f23c014ae","collected_at":"2026-10-23T23:08:21+00:00","period_grain":"day","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]}],"edition":{"title":"Hormuz traffic collapsed, Europe's gas storage stalled below target, and German power prices rose by half.","lead":"Ships through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 68 a day in January and February 2026 to about 4 a day from September, and EU gas storage stopped filling at about 75% of capacity on 23 October, short of the 80% Europe set as this year's working target. Over the same months the German day-ahead power price averaged about 155 EUR per MWh in September and October, against about 105 before the strait closed.","published_at":"2026-10-24","vectors":["hormuz-transits-total","eu-gas-storage-twh","de-dayahead-eur-mwh"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"value","period":"2026-02-28","value":57},{"id":"F2","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"value","period":"2026-03-02","value":4},{"id":"F3","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"last","period":null,"value":4},{"id":"F4","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"max","period":null,"value":127},{"id":"F5","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"value","period":"2026-06-24","value":51},{"id":"F6","series":"hormuz-transits-tanker","stat":"value","period":"2026-02-28","value":36},{"id":"F7","series":"hormuz-transits-tanker","stat":"last","period":null,"value":2},{"id":"F8","series":"eu-gas-storage-twh","stat":"first","period":null,"value":702.7194},{"id":"F9","series":"eu-gas-storage-twh","stat":"min","period":null,"value":313.7922},{"id":"F10","series":"eu-gas-storage-twh","stat":"max","period":null,"value":845.1389},{"id":"F11","series":"eu-gas-storage-twh","stat":"last","period":null,"value":845.0462},{"id":"F12","series":"eu-gas-storage-twh","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-01","value":815.1072},{"id":"F13","series":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","stat":"value","period":"2026-02-28","value":53.35},{"id":"F14","series":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","stat":"max","period":null,"value":256.55},{"id":"F15","series":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-16","value":210.67},{"id":"F16","series":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-23","value":137.59},{"id":"F17","series":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-24","value":30.12},{"id":"F18","series":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","stat":"value","period":"2026-03-02","value":92.87},{"id":"F19","series":"hormuz-transits-tanker","stat":"value","period":"2026-03-02","value":1},{"id":"F20","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"value","period":"2026-02-27","value":64},{"id":"F21","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"value","period":"2026-06-18","value":20},{"id":"F22","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-08","value":20},{"id":"F23","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"value","period":"2026-07-10","value":7},{"id":"F24","series":"hormuz-transits-total","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-01","value":0},{"id":"F25","series":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-10","value":51.08},{"id":"F26","series":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","stat":"value","period":"2026-10-21","value":211.94}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Strait of Hormuz daily transits, IMF PortWatch (AIS-based, published with a lag)","source_url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/datasets/3da2b9ca97684916b75c4013f95d18ab"},{"indicator":"EU and country gas storage, TWh and percent full, GIE AGSI","source_url":"https://agsi.gie.eu/"},{"indicator":"LNG send-out and arrivals at EU terminals, GIE ALSI","source_url":"https://alsi.gie.eu/"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"closed-strait-holds-german-power-above-120","signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","statement":"If Hormuz transits stay at or below 10 a day through 30 November 2026, the German day-ahead price averages at least 120 EUR per MWh over November 2026, because gas-marginal hours clear at or above a fuel-and-carbon floor of at least 151 EUR per MWh while TTF stays near its October level.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Strait of Hormuz daily transits, all vessels (IMF PortWatch)","source_url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/datasets/3da2b9ca97684916b75c4013f95d18ab","series_key":"hormuz-transits-total","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":10}},{"name":"DE-LU day-ahead price, monthly average of daily values (Bundesnetzagentur SMARD)","source_url":"https://www.smard.de/home/downloadcenter/download-marktdaten/","series_key":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","threshold":{"op":">=","value":120}},{"name":"TTF front-month gas price, EUR per MWh (falsified if below 50 with the strait closed)","source_url":"https://www.eex.com/en/market-data","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":50}}],"horizon_date":"2026-11-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"closed-strait-storage-above-710","signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","statement":"If Hormuz transits stay at or below 10 a day and the JKM premium over TTF stays below 3 USD per MBtu, EU gas in storage is still at or above 710 TWh on 30 November 2026: Europe keeps receiving Atlantic LNG at about the September pace, and the winter risk is price rather than an empty store.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Strait of Hormuz daily transits, all vessels (IMF PortWatch)","source_url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/datasets/3da2b9ca97684916b75c4013f95d18ab","series_key":"hormuz-transits-total","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":10}},{"name":"EU gas in storage, daily (GIE AGSI)","source_url":"https://agsi.gie.eu/","series_key":"eu-gas-storage-twh","threshold":{"op":">=","value":710}},{"name":"JKM minus TTF, November and December delivery, USD per MBtu (Global LNG Hub weekly update)","source_url":"https://globallnghub.com/natural-gas-prices-weekly-update-jkm-ttf-and-henry-hub-13-october-2026/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":3}}],"horizon_date":"2026-11-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"reopening-pulls-german-power-below-160","signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","statement":"If Hormuz transits reach 30 or more a day for seven consecutive days by 30 November 2026, the German day-ahead price averages at most 160 EUR per MWh over December 2026 and EU gas in storage is at or above 560 TWh on 31 December 2026, as Qatari cargoes return within three to six weeks.","mechanism":"SUPPLY_SHOCK","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Strait of Hormuz daily transits, all vessels (IMF PortWatch)","source_url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/datasets/3da2b9ca97684916b75c4013f95d18ab","series_key":"hormuz-transits-total","threshold":{"op":">=","value":30}},{"name":"DE-LU day-ahead price, monthly average of daily values (Bundesnetzagentur SMARD)","source_url":"https://www.smard.de/home/downloadcenter/download-marktdaten/","series_key":"de-dayahead-eur-mwh","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":160}},{"name":"EU gas in storage, daily (GIE AGSI)","source_url":"https://agsi.gie.eu/","series_key":"eu-gas-storage-twh","threshold":{"op":">=","value":560}}],"horizon_date":"2026-12-31","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"qatarenergy","name":"QatarEnergy","country":"QA","sector":"NAICS 211130 Natural gas extraction (LNG production and marketing)","website":"https://www.qatarenergy.qa/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1146332","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries to customers in Europe and Asia as regular LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely halted."},"reasoning":"The quote shows QatarEnergy unable to deliver contracted LNG to European and Asian customers because Hormuz shipping is halted. That lost sales volume and contractual exposure follow is inferred; the size of revenue lost or recovered through higher prices on cargoes that do transit is not shown.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker","eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"edison","name":"Edison S.p.A.","country":"IT","sector":"NACE D35.23 Trade of gas through mains","website":"https://www.edison.it/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.edison.it/sites/default/files/documents/pr_qe_fm_august_28_def.pdf","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"As a result, a total of 29 LNG cargoes is now subject to force majeure over this period, representing a total volume of approximately 3.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Edison confirms its capability to source alternative gas for all its customers and to fully honor the commercial commitments it has undertaken."},"reasoning":"Edison's own release shows 29 Qatari cargoes (about 3.8 bcm) lost between April and early November 2026 under its 6.4 bcm/yr contract, and that it is buying replacement gas. The cost of that replacement relative to the contract price is not disclosed and is inferred to be higher.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker","eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"adriatic-lng","name":"Terminale GNL Adriatico S.r.l. (Adriatic LNG)","country":"IT","sector":"NACE H52.10 Warehousing and storage (LNG regasification terminal)","website":"https://www.adriaticlng.it/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.adriaticlng.it/en/media/press-releases/corporate/press+rel+-+operational+data+and+2025+esg","date":"2026-07-15","quote":"The temporary reduction in LNG flows from Qatar was offset by cargoes from the United States, resulting in a different geographical distribution of LNG sources in the first half of the year: 28 LNG carriers from the United States and 13 from Qatar."},"reasoning":"The terminal's own half-year release of 15 July 2026 shows Qatari cargoes replaced by US cargoes (28 against 13). The terminal is the delivery point of Edison's Qatari contract; whether its throughput or revenue changed is not shown (deliveries were 'in line with the same period of the previous year').","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh","hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker"]}]},{"slug":"orlen","name":"ORLEN S.A.","country":"PL","sector":"NACE D35.23 Trade of gas through mains; C19.20 Manufacture of refined petroleum products","website":"https://www.orlen.pl/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://wbj.pl/qatarenergy-suspends-lng-supplies-to-poland-until-october/post/151059","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Poland has received no Qatari LNG since April 2026, although Orlen says missing volumes are being replaced mainly by U.S. supplies, domestic and Norwegian production, and gas imported through Baltic Pipe."},"reasoning":"The quote shows Orlen has lost its Qatari LNG since April 2026 and is replacing it from US LNG, Norway and domestic output. The extra cost of the replacement volumes is inferred, not shown; Orlen's own statement was not found on orlen.pl.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker","eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"conocophillips","name":"ConocoPhillips","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 211120 Crude petroleum and natural gas extraction","website":"https://www.conocophillips.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.gulf-times.com/article/650719/business/qatarenergy-conocophillips-sign-deal-to-supply-lng-to-germany","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Pursuant to the two SPAs, a ConocoPhillips wholly-owned subsidiary will purchase the agreed quantities to be delivered ex-ship to the LNG receiving terminal, which is currently under development in Brunsbüttel in northern Germany, with deliveries expected to start in 2026."},"reasoning":"The 2022 agreement places ConocoPhillips as the buyer of Qatari LNG for Germany from 2026, sourced from its North Field East and South joint ventures. No 2026 force majeure notice to ConocoPhillips, no Brunsbüttel delivery schedule and no statement by the company on Hormuz were found; that its 2026 volumes are delayed is deduced from the transit collapse and from QatarEnergy's force majeure on other buyers, not shown.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker","de-dayahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"shell","name":"Shell plc","country":"GB","sector":"NACE B06.20 Extraction of natural gas; G46.71 Wholesale of fuels (LNG portfolio)","website":"https://www.shell.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.qatar-tribune.com/article/88787/business/qatarenergy-shell-sign-27-year-lng-deal-to-supply-35-mtpa-to-netherlands","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Pursuant to the SPAs, the LNG will be delivered to Gate LNG terminal located in the port of Rotterdam starting in 2026 for a term of 27 years."},"reasoning":"The 2023 agreement places Shell as offtaker of up to 3.5 mtpa of Qatari LNG for the Netherlands from 2026. No 2026 notice to Shell and no Gate delivery record were found; the delay is deduced from the transit collapse, and Shell's possible gain on spot margins as a portfolio trader is likewise not shown.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker","eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"south-hook-lng","name":"South Hook LNG Terminal Company Ltd","country":"GB","sector":"NACE H52.10 Warehousing and storage (LNG regasification terminal)","website":"https://www.southhooklng.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.southhooklng.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"From the deep waters of the Arabian Gulf off the north coast of Qatar, to the historic port of Milford Haven on the UK’s west coast, South Hook LNG Terminal is the final stage in a Supply Chain that celebrates remarkable engineering and strong cultural alliances."},"reasoning":"The terminal's own page places it at the end of the Qatari supply chain and its shareholder page shows QatarEnergy at 67.5%. Its 2026 send-out and any statement on reduced Qatari arrivals were not read; lower arrivals are deduced from the Hormuz transit collapse, not shown.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker"]}]},{"slug":"fluxys-lng","name":"Fluxys LNG S.A.","country":"BE","sector":"NACE H52.10 Warehousing and storage (LNG regasification terminal)","website":"https://www.fluxys.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/03092019/qatar-petroleum-books-lng-regasification-capacity-at-zeebrugge-terminal/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Qatar Petroleum has announced that it has signed a long-term agreement with Fluxys Belgium for LNG unloading services at the Zeebrugge LNG terminal."},"reasoning":"The 2019 report shows Qatar (via Qatar Terminal Ltd) holding long-term unloading capacity at Zeebrugge to 2044, which ties the terminal to Qatari flows. Fluxys's terminal page returned 404; whether booked capacity is paid regardless of arrivals and how 2026 throughput moved are not shown, so the adjacency is deduced from the 2019 booking alone.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker","eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"snam","name":"Snam S.p.A.","country":"IT","sector":"NACE H49.50 Transport via pipeline; H52.10 gas storage and LNG regasification","website":"https://www.snam.it/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/snam-half-year-revenue-and-margins-up-guidance-revised-upwards-debt-AJc286Y","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"As regards LNG (liquefied natural gas), the volumes regasified in the first half of the year by Snam’s fully consolidated assets (Piombino, Panigaglia, Ravenna and, from March 2026, Livorno) were not affected by the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stood at 5.32 billion cubic metres"},"reasoning":"Snam's half-year results tie its regasification assets explicitly to the Hormuz closure, reporting no effect on volumes; the same results attribute 20.3% lower storage injections to more limited imports. Its regulated revenue makes it adjacent rather than exposed; that reading is inferred.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"uniper","name":"Uniper SE","country":"DE","sector":"NACE D35.23 Trade of gas through mains; D35.11 Production of electricity","website":"https://www.uniper.energy/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/gas/strait-of-hormuz-closure-keeps-gas-prices-high-uniper-warns","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Uniper expects gas prices to remain at around €50 to €60 per megawatt hour as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping, the CEO of Germany's biggest gas importer said."},"reasoning":"The quote ties Uniper's price outlook and German storage filling directly to the Hormuz closure. Uniper's first-half earnings rose, so the net effect on the company may be positive; exposure here is to storage filling economics and supply cost, not shown in detail. uniper.energy refused curl (Cloudflare 403).","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh","de-dayahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"rwe","name":"RWE AG","country":"DE","sector":"NACE D35.11 Production of electricity","website":"https://www.rwe.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.rwe.com/en/our-energy/discover-conventional-energy-sources/gas/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"With power plants located in Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and Turkey, RWE is one of the leading operators of state-of-the-art gas-fired power stations in Europe."},"reasoning":"The page shows RWE operates gas-fired plants in Germany; a higher gas price raises their fuel cost and, when gas sets the price, the DE-LU day-ahead price. Whether RWE's margin falls or rises is not shown and depends on hedging and which plant is marginal. RWE is also an initial customer of German LNG Terminal at Brunsbüttel.","series_keys":["de-dayahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"basf","name":"BASF SE","country":"DE","sector":"NACE C20.14 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals","website":"https://www.basf.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.chemicalprocessing.com/industrynews/news/55383061/basf-ceo-warns-of-potential-oil-price-shock-amid-iran-conflict","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"BASF has been struggling for years with expensive energy in Germany, overcapacity on the global market and competition from China."},"reasoning":"BASF is a large industrial gas user in Germany, so a higher gas price raises its energy cost; that link is inferred. The same June 2026 article reports its chief executive saying he was not worried about gas supplies and was more concerned about oil, so the gas exposure is not shown by BASF itself.","series_keys":["de-dayahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"deutsche-energy-terminal","name":"Deutsche Energy Terminal GmbH","country":"DE","sector":"NACE H52.10 Warehousing and storage (LNG regasification terminal)","website":"https://energy-terminal.de/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://energy-terminal.de/en/terminals/brunsbuettel","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"The operating company of the LNG terminal in Brunsbüttel is DET. We cooperate with Gasfin Development S.A. in the management of the terminal."},"reasoning":"The page shows DET operates the floating terminal at Brunsbüttel, the delivery point named in ConocoPhillips's Qatari contract, as well as Wilhelmshaven and Stade. That replacement US and other cargoes raise utilisation of its regasification capacity is inferred; the page does not mention Qatar or Hormuz.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh","de-dayahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"german-lng-terminal","name":"German LNG Terminal GmbH","country":"DE","sector":"NACE H52.10 Warehousing and storage (LNG terminal under construction)","website":"https://germanlng.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://germanlng.com/initialkunden/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Mit ConocoPhillips, INEOS und RWE Supply & Trading als initiale Kunden konnten wir Vereinbarungen über langfristige Regasifizierungskapazitäten im Terminal schließen."},"reasoning":"The page names ConocoPhillips, holder of the Qatari supply for Brunsbüttel, among the initial customers of the onshore terminal, which the company says it will operate from 2027. Any effect of the 2026 disruption on its customers' plans is not shown.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"deutsche-regas","name":"Deutsche ReGas GmbH & Co. KGaA","country":"DE","sector":"NACE H52.10 Warehousing and storage (LNG regasification terminal)","website":"https://deutsche-regas.de/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://lngprime.com/?p=176467","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"German LNG terminal operator Deutsche ReGas said that its FSRU-based LNG import facility in Mukran has regasified 12.9 TWh over the past three months,."},"reasoning":"The February 2026 report shows Mukran operating at scale before the disruption. That higher demand for non-Qatari LNG and storage refilling raises its utilisation is inferred; deutsche-regas.de is a script-rendered page and gave no readable text, and nothing ties Mukran to Qatar.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"gate-terminal","name":"Gate terminal B.V.","country":"NL","sector":"NACE H52.10 Warehousing and storage (LNG regasification terminal)","website":"https://www.gateterminal.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.gateterminal.com/en/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Gate terminal is Europe’s LNG hub – a professional access gateway for LNG that is supplied from across the world. The import terminal on Maasvlakte in Rotterdam contributes to the natural gas supply in the Netherlands and Northwest Europe."},"reasoning":"Gate is the named delivery point of Shell's Qatari contract from 2026, per the Qatar Tribune report; its own page does not mention Qatar. Replacement cargoes from other origins can use the same capacity, so the net effect on the terminal is inferred to be small.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"cheniere","name":"Cheniere Energy, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325120 Industrial gas manufacturing (natural gas liquefaction)","website":"https://www.cheniere.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://lngir.cheniere.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/348/cheniere-signs-long-term-sale-and-purchase-agreements-to","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Under the SPAs, QatarEnergy has agreed to purchase 2 mtpa of LNG from each of SPL and CCL on a free-on-board (FOB) basis for a purchase price indexed to the Henry Hub price plus a fixed fee."},"reasoning":"The 22 October 2026 release shows QatarEnergy contracting US LNG from Cheniere, from the early 2030s. Higher prices for Cheniere's flexible cargoes during the disruption are inferred; the release does not mention Hormuz or Europe.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker","eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"venture-global","name":"Venture Global, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 325120 Industrial gas manufacturing (natural gas liquefaction)","website":"https://ventureglobal.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://ventureglobal.com/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Venture Global’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, south of the city of Lake Charles. The plant is in commercial operations and currently has a peak export capacity of greater than 12 MTPA."},"reasoning":"The page shows US Gulf export capacity at Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines. Higher realised prices or more European destinations after the Qatari shortfall are inferred from the shock; nothing on the page ties it to Hormuz.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh","hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker"]}]},{"slug":"equinor","name":"Equinor ASA","country":"NO","sector":"NACE B06.20 Extraction of natural gas","website":"https://www.equinor.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.equinor.com/energy/natural-gas","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Equinor is one of the world’s major gas producers and the largest supplier of pipeline gas to Europe."},"reasoning":"As the largest pipeline supplier to Europe, Equinor sells into the same hub prices that rose after Qatari LNG stopped; higher realised prices are inferred. Pipeline volume is capacity-bound, so more volume is not implied; the page does not mention Hormuz.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh","de-dayahead-eur-mwh"]}]},{"slug":"gassco","name":"Gassco AS","country":"NO","sector":"NACE H49.50 Transport via pipeline","website":"https://gassco.eu/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://gassco.eu/en/about-us/where-we-are/receiving-terminals/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"The reception terminals are located in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Belgium. The locations are not random. Through these terminals, Norwegian gas reaches the most important consumer countries in Western Europe."},"reasoning":"Gassco operates the Norwegian export pipelines and receiving terminals that carry the main non-LNG substitute into Germany and Belgium. Its regulated tariffs make it adjacent; higher use of the system after the shock is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"sonatrach","name":"Sonatrach","country":"DZ","sector":"NACE B06.20 Extraction of natural gas","website":"https://sonatrach.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://north-africa.com/algerian-gas-exports-to-europe-rise-for-fourth-consecutive-month/","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Algeria continued to expand natural gas exports to Europe during the first four months of 2026, benefiting from steady pipeline deliveries to key markets including Spain and Italy."},"reasoning":"The quote shows Algerian exports to Italy and Spain rising in January–April 2026; Sonatrach, which its own site calls the leading gas supplier to Italy, is the exporter. The article does not name Sonatrach or link the rise to Hormuz; that link is inferred.","series_keys":["eu-gas-storage-twh"]}]},{"slug":"jera","name":"JERA Co., Inc.","country":"JP","sector":"NACE D35.11 Production of electricity","website":"https://www.jera.co.jp/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2819216-japan-s-jera-secures-lng-supplies-through-july","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Japan's largest power producer Jera has secured sufficient LNG supplies to meet domestic demand through to July, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to shipments of the fuel via the strait of Hormuz."},"reasoning":"The quote shows JERA securing replacement LNG during the Hormuz disruption, so it bid for the same flexible cargoes as European buyers. JERA declined to say how; that its buying lifted the price Europe paid is inferred.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker"]}]},{"slug":"kogas","name":"Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS)","country":"KR","sector":"NACE D35.23 Trade of gas through mains","website":"https://www.kogas.or.kr/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2026/03/25/iran-strikes-dent-qatar-lng-output-force-majeure-declared-on-china-italy-belgium-and-south-korea-contracts/213733","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"The measure applies to contracts with China, Italy, Belgium and South Korea, it said in a statement cited by Qatari media, including Al Jazeera and Al Sharq."},"reasoning":"The quote shows QatarEnergy declaring force majeure on South Korean contracts; KOGAS, the GIIGNL member and main Korean LNG importer, is not named. That KOGAS holds the affected contracts and competes for spot cargoes is inferred; kogas.or.kr refused the request.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker"]}]},{"slug":"cpc-taiwan","name":"CPC Corporation, Taiwan","country":"TW","sector":"NACE C19.20 Manufacture of refined petroleum products; D35.23 Trade of gas through mains","website":"https://www.cpc.com.tw/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1135820","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Since the start of the war, CPC has repeatedly entered the market through spot tenders, often seeking up to three cargoes at a time."},"reasoning":"The quote shows CPC buying spot LNG to replace Qatari supply, about 40% of its long-term contracts per the same article. That these tenders compete directly with European spot demand is inferred.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker"]}]},{"slug":"petronet-lng","name":"Petronet LNG Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NACE H52.10 Warehousing and storage (LNG regasification terminal)","website":"https://www.petronetlng.in/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/PETRONET_05032026202118_CDFMQATARGAS.pdf","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"In continuation of our submission to Stock Exchanges dated 3rd March 2026 on potential Force Majeure notice, it may be noted that PLL has now received a Notice of Force Majeure from its LNG Supplier QatarEnergy (QE)."},"reasoning":"Petronet's own filing shows it received QatarEnergy's force majeure on its long-term supply to Dahej. Its replacement buying in the spot market, which competes with Europe, is inferred; the filing says the impact could not yet be estimated.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker"]}]},{"slug":"gail-india","name":"GAIL (India) Limited","country":"IN","sector":"NACE H49.50 Transport via pipeline; D35.23 Trade of gas through mains","website":"https://gailonline.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/PETRONET_05032026202118_CDFMQATARGAS.pdf","date":"2026-10-23","quote":"Consequently, the Company has issued corresponding Force Majeure notices to its off-takers, namely GAIL (India) Limited, Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), under the relevant Gas Sale and Purchase Agreements on 5th March 2026."},"reasoning":"The filing shows GAIL receiving a pass-through force majeure on Qatari gas from Petronet. GAIL's own response, and whether it bought spot LNG against Europe, is not shown and is inferred from its role as India's largest gas marketer.","series_keys":["hormuz-transits-total","hormuz-transits-tanker"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"With Hormuz at 4 transits a day and EU storage at 74.6% on 23 October, which European gas buyers and gas-fired generators must buy replacement cargoes or fuel at spot before and during the heating season, at what energy shortfall, and what does that do to the German day-ahead power price?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"Edison LNG cargoes under QatarEnergy force majeure, April to early November 2026","value":29,"unit":"cargoes","kind":"SUPPLY","source_url":"https://www.edison.it/sites/default/files/documents/pr_qe_fm_august_28_def.pdf","source_date":"2026-08-28","quote":"As a result, a total of 29 LNG cargoes is now subject to force majeure over this period, representing a total volume of approximately 3.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas.","note":"Edison press release of 28 August 2026; the period runs from the beginning of April to early November 2026 according to the same release."},{"id":"K2","name":"Edison volume under force majeure","value":3.8,"unit":"bcm","kind":"SUPPLY","source_url":"https://www.edison.it/sites/default/files/documents/pr_qe_fm_august_28_def.pdf","source_date":"2026-08-28","quote":"As a result, a total of 29 LNG cargoes is now subject to force majeure over this period, representing a total volume of approximately 3.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas.","note":"Approximate volume as stated; 3.8 bcm over 29 cargoes is 0.131 bcm per cargo."},{"id":"K3","name":"Edison long-term contract with QatarEnergy","value":6.4,"unit":"bcm per year","kind":"SUPPLY","source_url":"https://www.edison.it/sites/default/files/documents/pr_qe_fm_august_28_def.pdf","source_date":"2026-08-28","quote":"Edison holds a long-term contract with QatarEnergy for the supply of 6.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to Italy. The contract, which has been in force since 2009, has a total duration of 25 years."},{"id":"K4","name":"Edison replacement volume secured by 28 August 2026","value":2,"unit":"bcm","kind":"SUPPLY","source_url":"https://www.edison.it/sites/default/files/documents/pr_qe_fm_august_28_def.pdf","source_date":"2026-08-28","quote":"As of 28 August 2026, Edison reports the replacement of 21 LNG cargoes at the Adriatic LNG terminal, representing a volume of approximately 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas.","note":"21 replacement cargoes for about 2 bcm; the cost relative to the Qatari contract price is not disclosed."},{"id":"K5","name":"Energy content per billion cubic metres, Commission convention","value":11.2,"unit":"TWh per bcm","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://energy.ec.europa.eu/document/download/73b16f0c-1c65-478f-a004-d991d8bd0b2f_en?filename=New%20Quarterly%20Report%20on%20European%20Gas%20Markets%20Q4%202025-AA.pdf","source_date":"2026-07-03","quote":"Gas Infrastructure Europe - AGSI (gie.eu) - data published under the Storage Transparency Platform, shows 1146.5651 TWh (102 bcm using 11.2 coonversion factor to translate TWh to bcm) of technical working capacity as of 18 March 2025.","note":"Footnote 10 of the Commission's Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets Q4 2025 (PDF dated 3 July 2026), typo included. Snam's Italian standard of 40 MJ per standard cubic metre gives 11.11 TWh per bcm, within one percent."}],"constants_total":62,"constraints":[{"id":"C1","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C2","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C3","kind":"REGULATORY"},{"id":"C4","kind":"CAPACITY"},{"id":"C5","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C6","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C7","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C8","kind":"CONTRACT"},{"id":"C9","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C10","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C11","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C12","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C13","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C15","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C16","kind":"CALENDAR"}],"constraints_total":15,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"Hormuz transits, all vessels and tankers","to":"Qatari LNG loadings stopped","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":3},"statement":"PortWatch counts fell from 64 transits on 27 February and 57 on 28 February to 4 on 2 March 2026 (tankers from 36 to 1); QatarEnergy declared force majeure on European and Asian deliveries and had still not lifted it in October."},{"id":"L2","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Qatari loadings stopped","to":"Qatar's share of EU LNG imports near zero","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":20,"max":45},"statement":"With 4 transits a day through 18 October, Qatar's share of EU LNG imports went from 10.1% in Q4 2025 to 0.3% in Q2 2026 and EU LNG volumes fell 21.4% year on year in Q2; the share is a Eurostat constant, not an Atlas series."},{"id":"L3","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"Lost Qatari cargoes, competition for US cargoes, and the summer-winter spread","to":"EU storage below the 90% target at the end of injection","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":200},"statement":"Storage bottomed at 313.8 TWh on 31 March, reached 815.1 TWh on 1 October and peaked at 845.1 TWh on 19 October; injections stopped at 74.6% of working gas volume, 60.9 TWh short of the operative 80% target. The storage path is observed; the 'from' end is not in any series, so the link is consistent rather than observed. Two thirds of the gap to 2025 is the low start (C15), one third the slower refill (C16); and the shortfall sits in Germany (61.2%), which holds no Qatari contract, while Italy, which lost the cargoes, is at 89.8% (C13): the mechanism runs through price and incentives, not through a missing Italian cargo."},{"id":"L4","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Storage shortfall and extra spot LNG need","to":"European hub gas price (TTF, PSV, THE)","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"ACER put EU spot LNG needs at 56 bcm for 2026 if Qatar stays offline and Uniper expects 50 to 60 EUR per MWh while the strait is closed; the Atlas carries no hub gas price series, so the link is not measured here."},{"id":"L5","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Hub gas price","to":"DE-LU day-ahead power price","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":2},"statement":"Gas plants supplied 16.1% of German grid feed-in in 2025 and set the price in many hours: the day-ahead went from 53.35 EUR per MWh on 28 February to 92.87 on 2 March, peaked at 256.55 on 14 September and stood at 210.67 on 16 October; on 24 October it cleared at 30.12, which only wind and solar can produce. Daily values therefore mix the gas floor with the renewable output; the gas price itself is not in the Atlas."},{"id":"L6","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Force majeure notices to term buyers","to":"Replacement cargoes at Italian and Polish terminals","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":90},"statement":"Edison replaced 21 of its 29 lost cargoes (about 2 bcm) at Adriatic LNG by 28 August, where US carriers outnumbered Qatari ones 28 to 13 in the first half; Orlen replaced Qatari volumes from the US, Norway and Baltic Pipe. Terminal capacity allowed it; no series measures it yet."},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Replacement cargoes bought at spot","to":"Buyer margin and end-user gas price","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":180},"statement":"Edison says it honours all commitments; what the 3.8 bcm cost against the contract price is undisclosed. A PSV day-ahead series and Edison's quarterly results would close the link."},{"id":"L8","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"Gas fuel cost","to":"Gas-fired dispatch and industrial gas use in Germany","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"Uniper and RWE run the plants, BASF burns the gas; whether plants ran fewer hours or industry cut intake in September and October is not in the Atlas. SMARD gas-fired generation and Bundesnetzagentur industrial consumption series would test it."},{"id":"L9","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Strait reopening","to":"First Qatari cargo at a European terminal","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":21,"max":45},"statement":"Undamaged Ras Laffan trains restart within about two weeks of a reopening, then a laden voyage follows; the 24 June spike of 51 transits did not persist. No reopening has occurred in the series, so the lag is a conjecture."}],"alternatives":[{"id":"A1","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A2","status":"SUPPORTED"},{"id":"A3","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A4","status":"WEAKENED"},{"id":"A5","status":"OPEN"}],"alternatives_total":5,"conjectures":[{"locked":true,"id":"J1","statement":"Ras Laffan to Rovigo: the eight Edison cargoes not yet replaced on 28 August are 1.8 bcm, about 20 TWh, to be bought in the September to early November spot window in which Asian buyers bid for the same US cargoes; the terminal can take them, the question is only the price above the Qatari contract.","scope":"CROSS_GEOGRAPHY","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J2","statement":"From the gas cavern to the power exchange: while the strait is closed and TTF stays at or above its October low of 75.75 EUR per MWh, every hour in which a German gas plant is marginal clears at or above 151 EUR per MWh of fuel and carbon (172 at the 19 October TTF); the 16 October value of 210.67 sits 59 EUR above that floor, and the 30.12 of 24 October shows the floor vanishing when wind and solar take the margin. The monthly average therefore depends on the share of gas-marginal hours, which the Atlas does not yet measure: at two thirds of hours on the floor and one third near the 24 October level the average is about 120 EUR per MWh, which is the November 2026 threshold claimed here unless transits reopen. The first draft's 110 EUR 'fuel-only' floor was withdrawn after the counter-analysis.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J3","statement":"Stock, not deliverability: at the Q1 2026 net draw of 4.37 TWh per day, 845 TWh covers 193 days, into May 2027; the 174 TWh missing to the 90% target is 40 days of draw. The winter exposure of European buyers is therefore the price of the last cargoes, not an empty cavern, unless the draw doubles.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"FREE"},{"locked":true,"id":"J4","statement":"Doha, Tokyo and Rotterdam: Europe lost about its Qatari share of LNG and not more. The physical measure, GIE ALSI send-out, fell less than the trade statistics (the counter-analysis recomputed it at 8.9% in Q2 and 12.5% in Q3 year on year, against 21.4% in Eurostat tonnes; ALSI is not yet an Atlas series), the fifty-odd Hormuz cargoes since March all went to Asia, the IEA puts added US and Canadian exports at about 70% of the lost volume, and on 9 October TTF stood above JKM. Asia has not been outbidding Europe; the conjecture is that Europe's winter LNG depends on the 2026 US trains and on JKM staying below TTF, and that a JKM premium above 3 USD per MBtu would be the first sign of Atlantic cargoes being pulled east. The first draft's claim that the Qatari loss doubled through diversion, and its value-share-minus-mass-change quantity, were withdrawn after the counter-analysis.","scope":"CROSS_GEOGRAPHY","confidence":"LOW","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J5","statement":"The refill ran slower than in 2025: from the 31 March minimum to 1 October the EU injected 501 TWh, about 44.8 bcm, against 50 bcm in summer 2025, despite starting lower with more headroom. Both the low start and the slower refill explain the 174 TWh gap to the target.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"FREE"}],"trajectories":[{"locked":true,"id":"T1","name":"Hormuz transits, EU storage and German day-ahead power to the end of 2026","horizon":{"from":"2026-10-24","to":"2026-12-31"},"tier":"PREMIUM","branches":[{"id":"strait-closed","condition":{"indicator":"Hormuz transits, all vessels, daily","series_key":"hormuz-transits-total","op":"<=","value":10,"by":"2026-11-30"}},{"id":"strait-reopened","condition":{"indicator":"Hormuz transits, all vessels, daily","series_key":"hormuz-transits-total","op":">=","value":30,"by":"2026-11-30"}}]}],"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-10-24","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes":"Author's notes (kept): Drafted from four series, twenty figures and thirty-eight sourced constants. Points for an independent reviewer: the 11.2 TWh per bcm convention applied to Edison's Italian volumes (Snam's 40 MJ per Scm gives 11.11); the AGSI 23 October row is an estimate that may be revised; Eurostat shares are value-based while its volume change is in tonnes (J4, confidence LOW); the US fleet heat rate of 7,535 Btu per kWh is conservative against European plants; PortWatch tanker counts are not LNG-specific (A5); the trajectory ranges for November and December storage take the Q1 2026 draw as the upper bound of the pace. No hub gas price, Italian storage or gas-fired generation series is in the Atlas yet (L4, L7, L8). — Counter-analyst (2026-10-24, docs/night-2026-10-24/hormuz-lng-europe-gas-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md): REWORK, no REJECT. All 20 figures and every bound/quantity recompute; 35 of 38 quotes verbatim at their URL. REWORK on constants K6/K7/K8 (the AGSI single-day URL returns an API error and the 23 October row is no longer served; values confirmed on the 20-22 October rows), K27/K28 (Adriatic LNG's own release of 15 July 2026 is the primary), K32 (the German legal target is 80% per facility, 45% for six named porous sites, GasSpFuellstV par. 1; 70% is a reported aggregate). Operative EU target for 2026 is 80% (Commissioner's letter, Gas Coordination Group 26 March 2026; ACER 7 July 2026), so C3's gap is 60.9 TWh, not 174; Italy is at 89.8% and Germany at 61.1% on 22 October, so L3 is CONSISTENT, not OBSERVED, and the mechanism is the storage spread, not the physical loss. C11's 110 EUR/MWh 'fuel-only floor' uses a US fleet-average heat rate, the non-conservative direction for a floor: at 55-60% efficiency and 50 EUR/MWh gas the fuel cost is 83-91, about 111-121 with EUA near 82 EUR/t, and about 170-185 all-in at the October TTF of 75-89; J2's PHYSICAL check and T1's closed-branch price bounds must be re-derived (K31's August 50-60 is superseded). J4 is not supported: GIE ALSI send-out fell 8.9% in Q2 and 12.5% in Q3 year on year, the JKM-TTF spread is near 1 USD/MMBtu (its 2024-25 norm), and all Hormuz cargoes since March went to Asia; A4 should be WEAKENED and C6 should drop 'not from idle liquefaction' (Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3 ramp in 2026; IEA: about 70% of lost volume compensated). C10 describes the 18 June-8 July partial reopening (19 days at 10 or more transits, mean 24/day) as a three-day spike. A1's low start (74 TWh) outweighs the slower refill (53 TWh). Organisations: adriatic-lng should cite the primary; conocophillips, shell, south-hook-lng and fluxys-lng are deductions from pre-2026 contracts, not evidenced 2026 exposures; ADNOC and the Chinese term buyers are absent. Storage trajectory ranges are consistent with AGSI 2023-2025 and ENTSOG WSO 2026/27 (72% on 1 October; reference winter ends at 29% with optimal LNG, 13% with tight LNG). No source publishes the three series side by side. Rework round 1 applied on 2026-10-24T01:31Z: items 1 (C3 to the operative 80% target with K39-K42, Italian and German 22 October levels K43-K46, C13, L3 to CONSISTENT), 2 (C11 rebuilt from K47-K52, J2 check and threshold, T1 closed-branch price bounds, K31 kept as low case), 3 (J4 rewritten without the value-minus-mass quantity, A4 WEAKENED, C6 without 'not from idle liquefaction', K57-K62), 4 (C10 as the 18 June-8 July partial reopening with F21-F23 and K55-K56, A1 OPEN with C15-C16), 5 (K27-K28 to Adriatic LNG's 15 July release, K6-K8 to served AGSI rows, K19 note, K32 as reported aggregate), 6 (organisations: adriatic-lng primary URL; conocophillips, shell, south-hook-lng, fluxys-lng DEDUCED). Disagreements kept visible: the regulation's 90% stays in K9 and C3's text; ALSI send-out figures are the reviewer's recomputation pending a series; the S&P EUA and Platts spread prints were not retrievable and GMK/GLH stand in. — Counter-analyst round 2 (2026-10-24, final pass, COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md 'Round 2'): ACCEPTED. All 62 constant quotes and 26 organisation quotes re-read at their URLs; F21-F23 and every bound and quantity recompute exactly (C3 60.87, C11 151.22, C13 28.61, C15 73.92, C16 53.51, J2 59.45, J4 -0.7). K6-K8 now point at a served AGSI range; K27-K28 at Adriatic LNG's 15 July release; K43-K46 and K53-K54 AGSI rows answer; C10's window (21 days, 506 transits, mean 24.1, 19 days at 10 or more) recomputes. Disagreements kept, not erased: (1) K52's 60% is a net (LHV) efficiency while TTF is billed per MWh GCV, so on the GCV basis (0.60 x 0.903 = 54.2%) the best-plant floor is 167.5 EUR/MWh at the October low TTF and 190.8 at 88.38, not 151 and 172; the filed figure is below the physical floor and therefore admissible as a lower bound, but 'fuel plus carbon cost 151' understates the cost by about ten percent; (2) J2's illustration 'two thirds of hours on the floor and one third near the 24 October level' gives 2/3 x 151.2 + 1/3 x 30.1 = 110.9, not 120 (121.7 on the GCV-basis floor); the 120 threshold and T1's closed-branch low bound stand on the September-October distribution (7 of 30 and 3 of 24 days below 120, October 1-24 mean 161.9), not on that arithmetic; (3) K53/K54 source_date 2026-06-30 is neither the gas day nor the read date; (4) J4's quantity sign depends on reading 'low-USD 26s' as 26.0, and its ALSI figures are the reviewer's recomputation pending a series; (5) L3's 'to' label still says 90%; (6) Edison's reported extension to early December (The National, 28 Sep 2026) is unverified at edison.it, so K1/K2 may be superseded. Status set to REVIEWED; publication remains the owner's decision."},"locked":{"conjectures":5,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-10-24","constants":62,"constraints":15,"links":9,"untested":4,"contradicted":0,"alternatives":5,"conjectures":5,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"Premium newsletter — published pack library","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Access to every published pack, old and new, while your official Premium right is valid; new packs join the same library","Three formats per pack: dossier bundle as JSON, organisations as CSV and redistributable series as CSV","Provenance, licences, hashes and review notes where available; restricted observations withheld and unfinished dossiers labelled honestly","A member key for available full data on the JSON API and MCP; no free newsletter subscription without separate consent"],"delivery":"Download the archive from your native account while the official right is valid. 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