{"access":{"level":"sample","reason":"no_key","note":"Last 12 observations of each redistributable series and a preview of the dossier (chain with statuses, 5 constants, statements of conjectures and trajectories). Full data needs a member key, issued with the plan: https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan"},"signal":{"schema_version":1,"slug":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","title":"Record El Niño and a Panama Canal that eased: grain freight to Asia, October 2026","date":"2026-10-08","mechanism":"DROUGHT","geography":[{"code":"PA","name":"Panama Canal, Gatun Lake","latitude":9.2,"longitude":-79.9},{"code":"US-LA","name":"Mississippi Gulf grain ports, Louisiana","latitude":29.9,"longitude":-90.1},{"code":"US-WA","name":"Pacific Northwest grain ports, Washington","latitude":46.1,"longitude":-122.9},{"code":"JP","name":"Japan (grain import destination)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"CN","name":"China (grain import destination)","latitude":null,"longitude":null},{"code":"XZ","name":"Niño 3.4 region, equatorial Pacific (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W)","latitude":0,"longitude":-145}],"source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","summary":"NOAA's 8 October 2026 ENSO discussion keeps an El Niño Advisory and gives an 83% chance that October–December exceeds every El Niño since 1950; the weekly Niño 3.4 anomaly reached +3.4 °C on 21 October. Gatun Lake stood at 86.97 ft on 31 October against 79.7 ft in October 2023, and the canal handled 979 oceangoing transits in September 2026, while the Gulf–Japan grain ocean rate (76.38 USD/t) ran 39 USD above the PNW–Japan rate. The canal shock is anticipated, not observed.","status":"PUBLISHED"},"series":[{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","key":"canal-neopanamax-transits","family":"FLOW","variable":"Panama Canal oceangoing transits by Neopanamax vessels (107 ft beam and over), monthly total (ACP Monthly Canal Operations Summary)","unit":"transits per month","geography":"PA","publisher":"acp","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/en/advisory-to-shipping/","source_sha256":"98aa234533ab5f02ae5494a29e52c8fcc0aa8acf6f73a4734ccb26f80e063345","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:43:33+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","key":"canal-oceangoing-transits","family":"FLOW","variable":"Panama Canal oceangoing transits, all classes, monthly total (ACP Advisory to Shipping 'Monthly Canal Operations Summary')","unit":"transits per month","geography":"PA","publisher":"acp","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/en/advisory-to-shipping/","source_sha256":"98aa234533ab5f02ae5494a29e52c8fcc0aa8acf6f73a4734ccb26f80e063345","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:43:33+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","key":"gulf-japan-grain-ocean-rate","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Monthly ocean freight rate for bulk grain, U.S. Gulf to Japan (USDA AMS GTR Figure 20; source O'Neil Commodity Consulting)","unit":"USD per metric ton","geography":"JP","publisher":"usda-ams","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRFigure20.xlsx","source_sha256":"d7d8333126a1a914a3dbc8a96851f185d37b23e2925880093f9d2700bd1d43d3","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:41:39+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","key":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Spread between U.S. Gulf–Japan and PNW–Japan grain ocean freight rates (Gulf minus PNW), recomputed from the two rate series","unit":"USD per metric ton","geography":"JP","publisher":"usda-ams","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRFigure20.xlsx","source_sha256":"d7d8333126a1a914a3dbc8a96851f185d37b23e2925880093f9d2700bd1d43d3","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:41:39+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":{"op":"diff","inputs":["gulf-japan-grain-ocean-rate","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate"]},"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":199,"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","key":"ms-gulf-grain-export-inspections","family":"FLOW","variable":"Grain inspected for export, Mississippi Gulf port region, week ending Thursday (corn + soybeans + wheat + other grain; blank cells counted as zero) — USDA FGIS via GTR Table 18","unit":"metric tons","geography":"US-LA","publisher":"usda-fgis","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRTable18_Figure17_Figure18.xlsx","source_sha256":"124906c84556c3f659386e5781549ae620c713f12a958242483672fbd7218ab3","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:45:24+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W32","value":1305494},{"period":"2026-W33","value":1312035},{"period":"2026-W34","value":951167},{"period":"2026-W35","value":807498},{"period":"2026-W36","value":1093670},{"period":"2026-W37","value":1294381},{"period":"2026-W38","value":1491660},{"period":"2026-W39","value":1697619},{"period":"2026-W40","value":1539366},{"period":"2026-W41","value":1320355},{"period":"2026-W42","value":1514075},{"period":"2026-W43","value":1645305}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":199,"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","key":"nino34-ssta-weekly-c","family":"PHYSICAL","variable":"Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W), weekly OISST v2.1, week centred on Wednesday, base 1991–2020","unit":"°C","geography":"XZ","publisher":"noaa-cpc","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for","source_sha256":"d3bc1be509b5dfb072e1ef4693814a6c0f23f774732a15cc40c3d024a306dae2","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:41:38+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W32","value":2.5},{"period":"2026-W33","value":2.6},{"period":"2026-W34","value":2.6},{"period":"2026-W35","value":2.6},{"period":"2026-W36","value":2.8},{"period":"2026-W37","value":2.8},{"period":"2026-W38","value":3},{"period":"2026-W39","value":3.1},{"period":"2026-W40","value":3.2},{"period":"2026-W41","value":3.3},{"period":"2026-W42","value":3.3},{"period":"2026-W43","value":3.4}]},{"access":"sample","sample":true,"sample_size":12,"observations_total":199,"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","key":"pnw-grain-export-inspections","family":"FLOW","variable":"Grain inspected for export, Pacific Northwest port region, week ending Thursday (corn + soybeans + wheat + other grain; blank cells counted as zero) — USDA FGIS via GTR Table 18","unit":"metric tons","geography":"US-WA","publisher":"usda-fgis","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRTable18_Figure17_Figure18.xlsx","source_sha256":"124906c84556c3f659386e5781549ae620c713f12a958242483672fbd7218ab3","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:45:24+01:00","period_grain":"week","derived":null,"rights":"PUBLIC_DOMAIN","observations_withheld":false,"observations":[{"period":"2026-W32","value":657815},{"period":"2026-W33","value":758459},{"period":"2026-W34","value":722754},{"period":"2026-W35","value":672576},{"period":"2026-W36","value":818031},{"period":"2026-W37","value":817985},{"period":"2026-W38","value":896631},{"period":"2026-W39","value":756056},{"period":"2026-W40","value":741122},{"period":"2026-W41","value":859701},{"period":"2026-W42","value":794672},{"period":"2026-W43","value":981244}]},{"access":"withheld","sample":false,"sample_size":null,"observations_total":null,"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","key":"pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","family":"ECONOMIC","variable":"Monthly ocean freight rate for bulk grain, U.S. Pacific Northwest to Japan (USDA AMS GTR Figure 20; source O'Neil Commodity Consulting)","unit":"USD per metric ton","geography":"JP","publisher":"usda-ams","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRFigure20.xlsx","source_sha256":"d7d8333126a1a914a3dbc8a96851f185d37b23e2925880093f9d2700bd1d43d3","collected_at":"2026-11-01T15:41:39+01:00","period_grain":"month","derived":null,"rights":"RESTRICTED","observations_withheld":true,"observations":[]}],"edition":{"title":"The Panama Canal has eased, a record El Niño is heading for its 2027 dry season, and Gulf grain to Japan already pays its widest freight premium in the monthly series since January 2023.","lead":"The weekly Niño 3.4 anomaly reached +3.4 °C on 21 October 2026 and NOAA gives an 83% chance that October to December beats every El Niño since 1950, yet the canal handled 979 oceangoing transits in September, close to 994 a year earlier, and Gatun Lake has refilled to 86.97 ft, seven feet above October 2023. The test is the January to April 2027 dry season, which the ACP projects the lake will enter 1.35 ft lower than in 2023, so restrictions could return from late February. Gulf grain already pays 39.07 USD/t more than Pacific Northwest grain to reach Japan, a premium that China's Cape routing of Gulf soybeans, in place since late 2025, may explain in part; the canal's share is not yet separated.","published_at":"2026-11-01","vectors":["nino34-ssta-weekly-c","canal-oceangoing-transits","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"],"figures":[{"id":"F1","series":"nino34-ssta-weekly-c","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":3.4},{"id":"F2","series":"nino34-ssta-weekly-c","stat":"value","period":"2023-W47","value":2.1},{"id":"F3","series":"nino34-ssta-weekly-c","stat":"value","period":"2023-W25","value":1},{"id":"F4","series":"nino34-ssta-weekly-c","stat":"value","period":"2026-W22","value":1},{"id":"F5","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"value","period":"2023-01","value":1128},{"id":"F6","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"min","period":null,"value":662},{"id":"F7","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"value","period":"2023-11","value":783},{"id":"F8","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":979},{"id":"F9","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"value","period":"2025-09","value":994},{"id":"F10","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":1055},{"id":"F11","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"max","period":null,"value":1161},{"id":"F12","series":"canal-neopanamax-transits","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":269},{"id":"F13","series":"canal-neopanamax-transits","stat":"value","period":"2025-09","value":297},{"id":"F14","series":"canal-neopanamax-transits","stat":"min","period":null,"value":189},{"id":"F15","series":"canal-neopanamax-transits","stat":"value","period":"2023-10","value":302},{"id":"F16","series":"gulf-japan-grain-ocean-rate","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":76.38},{"id":"F17","series":"pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":37.31},{"id":"F18","series":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","stat":"value","period":"2026-09","value":39.07},{"id":"F19","series":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","stat":"max","period":null,"value":39.07},{"id":"F20","series":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","stat":"value","period":"2023-09","value":26},{"id":"F21","series":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","stat":"value","period":"2023-12","value":29.58},{"id":"F26","series":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","stat":"value","period":"2025-09","value":27.5},{"id":"F29","series":"ms-gulf-grain-export-inspections","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":1645305},{"id":"F30","series":"pnw-grain-export-inspections","stat":"value","period":"2026-W43","value":981244},{"id":"F31","series":"ms-gulf-grain-export-inspections","stat":"value","period":"2023-W43","value":1055275},{"id":"F32","series":"pnw-grain-export-inspections","stat":"value","period":"2023-W43","value":998970},{"id":"F33","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"value","period":"2026-03","value":1148},{"id":"F34","series":"canal-oceangoing-transits","stat":"value","period":"2023-10","value":1003},{"id":"F35","series":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","stat":"value","period":"2026-08","value":36.19},{"id":"F38","series":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","stat":"value","period":"2026-07","value":33}],"watch":[{"indicator":"Gatun Lake level and ACP projection, daily (read at the ACP water page; the 84 ft line)","source_url":"https://evtms-rpts.pancanal.com/eng/h2o/index.html"},{"indicator":"ACP Advisories to Shipping: draft, daily slots, LoTSA 2027 competitions of 17 and 24 November 2026, monthly transits","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/en/advisory-to-shipping/"},{"indicator":"USDA Grain Transportation Report: Gulf and PNW ocean rates to Japan, FGIS inspections, Cape routings","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis/gtr"}]},"hypotheses":[{"id":"gatun-below-84-by-february-cuts-slots","signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","statement":"If Gatun Lake reads below 84 ft on any day on or before 28 February 2027 on the ACP water page, as the 2023 drawdown rate from the projected 86.3 ft implies around 25 February, the ACP sets daily booking slots at 32 or fewer before 31 March 2027, and the Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan is at or above 36 USD/t in March 2027.","mechanism":"DROUGHT","confidence":"MEDIUM","indicators":[{"name":"Gatun Lake level, daily, ACP water page (read at source, not stored)","source_url":"https://evtms-rpts.pancanal.com/eng/h2o/index.html","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<","value":84}},{"name":"Daily booking slots, Neopanamax plus Panamax locks, ACP Advisories to Shipping","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/en/advisory-to-shipping/","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":"<=","value":32}},{"name":"Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan, monthly (USDA AMS GTR Figure 20)","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRFigure20.xlsx","series_key":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","threshold":{"op":">=","value":36}}],"horizon_date":"2027-04-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"gatun-holds-84-through-march-canal-normal","signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","statement":"If Gatun Lake stays at or above 84 ft on every day from 1 January to 31 March 2027, which takes a dry season wetter than 2025's, the ACP keeps 33 or more daily slots through March 2027, oceangoing transits are at or above 950 in February 2027, and the Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan is at or below 39 USD/t in March 2027.","mechanism":"DROUGHT","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Gatun Lake level, daily, ACP water page (read at source, not stored)","source_url":"https://evtms-rpts.pancanal.com/eng/h2o/index.html","series_key":null,"threshold":{"op":">=","value":84}},{"name":"Panama Canal oceangoing transits, monthly (ACP Monthly Canal Operations Summary)","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/en/advisory-to-shipping/","series_key":"canal-oceangoing-transits","threshold":{"op":">=","value":950}},{"name":"Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan, monthly (USDA AMS GTR Figure 20)","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRFigure20.xlsx","series_key":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","threshold":{"op":"<=","value":39}}],"horizon_date":"2027-04-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null},{"id":"wide-spread-pnw-share-capped","signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","statement":"If the Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan is at or above 40 USD/t in any month from January to March 2027, the Pacific Northwest share of Gulf-plus-PNW grain export inspections over January to March 2027 stays at or below 45 percent, near the 39.9 percent of the fourth quarter of 2023, because elevator and rail capacity in the Northwest, not the ocean rate, caps the switch.","mechanism":"DROUGHT","confidence":"LOW","indicators":[{"name":"Gulf-minus-PNW grain ocean rate to Japan, monthly (USDA AMS GTR Figure 20)","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRFigure20.xlsx","series_key":"gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","threshold":{"op":">=","value":40}},{"name":"Pacific Northwest grain inspected for export, weekly (USDA FGIS via GTR Table 18); share of the Gulf-plus-PNW total, January to March 2027, at or below 45 percent","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRTable18_Figure17_Figure18.xlsx","series_key":"pnw-grain-export-inspections","threshold":null},{"name":"Mississippi Gulf grain inspected for export, weekly (USDA FGIS via GTR Table 18), denominator of the share","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTRTable18_Figure17_Figure18.xlsx","series_key":"ms-gulf-grain-export-inspections","threshold":null}],"horizon_date":"2027-04-30","status":"OPEN","outcome":null}],"organisations":[{"slug":"panama-canal-authority","name":"Autoridad del Canal de Panamá (Panama Canal Authority)","country":"PA","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://pancanal.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-29-2026-Additional-Measures-to-Address-Reduced-Precipitation-in-the-Canal-Watershed.pdf","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The combination of these observed deficits and the forecast of a potentially severe 2026-2027 El Niño event raises concerns regarding water availability during the upcoming 2027 dry season (January to April)."},"reasoning":"The canal operator states in its own August 2026 advisory that the El Niño forecast threatens water for the 2027 dry season; slot and draft decisions are its lever, and toll and auction revenue depend on them. The October easing to 49 ft and 33 slots does not withdraw this concern; whether new restrictions come is not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"sk-gas","name":"SK Gas Co., Ltd.","country":"KR","sector":"NAICS 424720 Petroleum products merchant wholesalers (LPG trading)","website":"https://www.skgas.co.kr/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-company-pays-record-5-3-million-to-transit-panama-canal-amid-rising-demand/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"South Korea’s SK Gas has agreed to pay a record $5.3 million to secure a Panama Canal transit slot for its LPG carrier G. Spirit on Sept. 1, as demand rises and fewer slots are available."},"reasoning":"The quote shows a Korean importer paying a record auction price for a canal slot during the August–September 2026 restrictions. That cost is the direct expression of the chain for US-to-Asia gas cargoes; whether SK Gas will bid again in a 2027 dry-season squeeze is inferred.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"sk-shipping","name":"SK Shipping Co., Ltd.","country":"KR","sector":"NAICS 483111 Deep sea freight transportation","website":"https://www.skshipping.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"EVIDENCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-company-pays-record-5-3-million-to-transit-panama-canal-amid-rising-demand/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The previous $4.6 million record was linked to G. Arete, another LPG carrier operated by SK Shipping."},"reasoning":"The quote ties the operator of two gas carriers to both record canal auction payments in 2026. A ship operator either pays for slots or adds Cape voyage days; who bears the cost under its charters is not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"cheniere-energy","name":"Cheniere Energy, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 211130 Natural gas extraction / LNG liquefaction (NAICS 486210)","website":"https://www.cheniere.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ajot.com/news/asian-lng-buyers-pay-a-panama-chokepoint-premium-for-2024","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"For example, congestion costs for an LNG cargo from Sabine Pass in the US to Futtsu in Japan surged by $1.5 million from last week, making total spot freight $6.2 million more expensive, data from Spark Commodities show."},"reasoning":"The 2023 analogue quote prices canal congestion on cargoes from Sabine Pass, Cheniere’s Louisiana plant, to Japan. A renewed 2027 restriction would lengthen or reprice its Asia deliveries; how much of that falls on Cheniere versus free-on-board buyers is not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"jera","name":"JERA Co., Inc.","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 221112 Fossil fuel electric power generation","website":"https://www.jera.co.jp/en","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ajot.com/news/asian-lng-buyers-pay-a-panama-chokepoint-premium-for-2024","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"For example, congestion costs for an LNG cargo from Sabine Pass in the US to Futtsu in Japan surged by $1.5 million from last week, making total spot freight $6.2 million more expensive, data from Spark Commodities show."},"reasoning":"Futtsu is a JERA LNG receiving terminal, so the 2023 quote places US Gulf cargoes into JERA’s system on the canal-cost chain. A 2027 squeeze would raise delivered cost or voyage time on its US volumes; its share of US supply routed via Panama is not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"venture-global-lng","name":"Venture Global, Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 486210 Pipeline transportation of natural gas / LNG liquefaction","website":"https://venturegloballng.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://venturegloballng.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Calcasieu Pass Venture Global’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, south of the city of Lake Charles."},"reasoning":"The page shows Gulf Coast LNG export plants; Asia-bound cargoes from Louisiana choose between Panama and the Cape. The share of its cargoes sold to Asia and routed through the canal is not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"cameron-lng","name":"Cameron LNG, LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 486210 LNG liquefaction and export terminal","website":"https://cameronlng.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://cameronlng.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Cameron LNG’s partners, Sempra Infrastructure, Mitsui & Co., Mitsubishi Corporation, TotalEnergies, and NYK Line, represent extensive LNG market and shipping experience and are committed to achieving operational excellence to ensure safe and reliable workplace."},"reasoning":"A Louisiana tolling plant whose Japanese partners lift LNG for Japanese buyers sits on the Gulf–Asia routing choice. Canal restrictions do not stop liquefaction but change the delivered economics for its offtakers; the routing of its cargoes is not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"mitsui-co","name":"Mitsui & Co., Ltd.","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 425120 Wholesale trade agents (general trading company)","website":"https://www.mitsui.com/jp/en/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://cameronlng.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Cameron LNG’s partners, Sempra Infrastructure, Mitsui & Co., Mitsubishi Corporation, TotalEnergies, and NYK Line, represent extensive LNG market and shipping experience and are committed to achieving operational excellence to ensure safe and reliable workplace."},"reasoning":"The quote shows Mitsui as an equity partner in a Gulf LNG plant whose volumes it resells to Japanese utilities, so Panama routing costs reach its margins from Tokyo. Its other position on the PNW side (United Grain is a Mitsui subsidiary) is not shown on this page.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"tokyo-gas","name":"Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd.","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 221210 Natural gas distribution","website":"https://www.tokyo-gas.co.jp/en/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://naturalgasworld.com/mitsui-to-supply-cameron-lng-to-tokyo-gas-13071","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Tokyo Gas on Thursday said it has signed an agreement with Mitsui for the purchase 520,000 tons of LNG per year for 20 years from the Cameron LNG project in the United States."},"reasoning":"The 2014 report shows a Japanese utility contracted for Louisiana LNG; Gulf-to-Japan voyages either transit Panama or go around the Cape. The delivery terms and route of these cargoes, and whether the contract is still at this volume, are not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"kogas","name":"Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS)","country":"KR","sector":"NAICS 221210 Natural gas distribution and LNG import","website":"https://www.kogas.or.kr/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://lngir.cheniere.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/163/cheniere-kogas-celebrate-commencement-of-20-year-lng","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Under the terms of the SPA, Cheniere shall sell and make available for delivery to KOGAS approximately 3.5 million tonnes of LNG per year, which represents more than 10 percent of South Korea's total annual demand."},"reasoning":"The 2017 release shows a 20-year Sabine Pass supply contract covering a tenth of Korean demand, so Gulf-to-Korea routing is material to KOGAS. Whether these cargoes are delivered ex-ship with KOGAS bearing the canal choice is not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"nyk-line","name":"Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK Line)","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 483111 Deep sea freight transportation","website":"https://www.nyk.com/english/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://cameronlng.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Cameron LNG’s partners, Sempra Infrastructure, Mitsui & Co., Mitsubishi Corporation, TotalEnergies, and NYK Line, represent extensive LNG market and shipping experience and are committed to achieving operational excellence to ensure safe and reliable workplace."},"reasoning":"The quote shows a Japanese shipowner as a partner in a Gulf LNG plant. A canal squeeze forces longer Cape voyages, absorbing ship capacity and lifting charter rates for owners with open tonnage; NYK’s fleet exposure to spot rates is not shown, and its Cameron stake is on the exposed side.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"mitsui-osk-lines","name":"Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd.","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 483111 Deep sea freight transportation","website":"https://www.mol.co.jp/en/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"FINANCIAL_REMOTE","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.mol.co.jp/en/services/bulkshipping/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Panamax bulkers are the largest ships capable of transiting the pre-expansion Panama Canal."},"reasoning":"MOL runs Panamax dry bulkers, the class most grain cargoes use through the canal. The 2026 GTR describes rerouting around Africa raising ton-miles and Panamax rates, which favours owners; MOL’s spot versus fixed-charter split is not shown.","series_keys":["gulf-japan-grain-ocean-rate","canal-oceangoing-transits"]}]},{"slug":"pan-ocean","name":"Pan Ocean Co., Ltd.","country":"KR","sector":"NAICS 483111 Deep sea freight transportation (dry bulk)","website":"https://www.panocean.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.itochu.co.jp/en/news/press/2009/090602.html","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"ITOCHU Corporation has agreed with Bunge North America, a major Saint Louis-based agribusiness firm, and STX Pan Ocean (America), Inc., a New York-based U.S. corporation of the largest South Korean bulk carrier, to spend more than $200 million to jointly build one of the largest export grain terminals on the West Coast."},"reasoning":"The 2009 release shows the Korean bulk carrier as a founding partner of the Longview (PNW) export terminal. A shift of Asia-bound grain from the Gulf to the PNW would raise terminal throughput and longer bulk voyages would lift rates; its current stake in the terminal is not shown on this page.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"bunge","name":"Bunge Global SA","country":"CH","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.bunge.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.itochu.co.jp/en/news/press/2009/090602.html","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The joint venture established by the three firms will build one of the largest export grain terminals on the West Coast at the Port of Longview, Washington."},"reasoning":"The release shows Bunge as a partner in the Longview terminal that loads Asia-bound grain in the PNW. A canal squeeze that widens the Gulf–PNW spread would favour that terminal; Bunge’s own Gulf export volumes, which would be on the exposed side, are not shown.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"zen-noh-grain","name":"Zen-Noh Grain Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 493130 Farm product warehousing and storage (export elevator)","website":"https://www.zgc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://millingandgrain.com/zen-noh-grain-corporation-announces-the-acquisition-of-bunge-north-americas-mississippi-river-tributary-grain-origination-assets-22145","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"This acquisition contributes to ZGC's ability to adequately source a stable supply of grains, oilseeds, and feed ingredients for Japan and other destinations by strengthening its origination across a broader footprint in the US."},"reasoning":"The release shows a Gulf export elevator business (Convent, Louisiana) supplying Japan. Gulf-to-Japan cargoes face the canal or the longer Cape route, so a 2027 squeeze raises its delivered cost relative to PNW origins; its route mix is not shown.","series_keys":["gulf-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","ms-gulf-grain-export-inspections"]}]},{"slug":"zen-noh","name":"National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations (Zen-Noh)","country":"JP","sector":"NAICS 424910 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers (feed)","website":"https://www.zennoh.or.jp/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://millingandgrain.com/zen-noh-grain-corporation-announces-the-acquisition-of-bunge-north-americas-mississippi-river-tributary-grain-origination-assets-22145","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Zen-Noh Grain Corporation (ZGC), a subsidiary of the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations of Japan (Zen-Noh), is pleased to announce that it has reached an agreement to acquire 35 operating U.S. grain origination elevators along the Mississippi River from Bunge North America, Inc."},"reasoning":"The quote shows the Japanese cooperative owns a Mississippi–Gulf grain chain feeding Japanese feed demand. A Gulf–Japan freight rise lands on its import cost or its subsidiary’s margin; the pass-through to Japanese feed prices is not shown.","series_keys":["gulf-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","ms-gulf-grain-export-inspections"]}]},{"slug":"cargill","name":"Cargill, Incorporated","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.cargill.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sdsoybean.org/news-media/see-for-yourself-port-of-longview-038-temco","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"TEMCO, which operates an export facility in Tacoma, Wash., is a 50-50 joint venture between CHS and Cargill. The expanded joint venture will include the Tacoma facility along with an export terminal in Kalama, Wash., and the Cargill Irving Elevator at Portland, Ore."},"reasoning":"The 2013 page shows Cargill co-owning PNW export terminals that ship to Asia, which gain if Asia-bound grain shifts away from the Gulf. Cargill also exports through the Gulf, which this page does not show, so the net direction is not determined.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"chs","name":"CHS Inc.","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers (cooperative)","website":"https://www.chsinc.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sdsoybean.org/news-media/see-for-yourself-port-of-longview-038-temco","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The expanded joint venture company will export feed grains, oilseeds and wheat to Asia-Pacific markets."},"reasoning":"The page names CHS as half-owner of TEMCO, whose PNW terminals export to Asia-Pacific, the side that gains from a canal squeeze. CHS’s Gulf-side exports are not shown, so the net effect is left open.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"united-grain","name":"United Grain Corporation","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 493130 Farm product warehousing and storage (export terminal)","website":"https://www.unitedgrain.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.unitedgrain.com/vancouver-export-terminal","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The largest grain export facility on the West Coast of the United States Our Vancouver Export Terminal, on the Columbia River in Washington State, exports up to 6 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds per year."},"reasoning":"A Columbia River terminal competes with Gulf elevators for Asian buyers; the September 2026 Gulf–PNW Japan rate spread of 39 USD/t is its competitive margin. Gains from a 2027 squeeze are inferred; its destination mix is not shown.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"columbia-grain-international","name":"Columbia Grain International, LLC","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 424510 Grain and field bean merchant wholesalers","website":"https://www.columbiagrain.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.columbiagrain.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Here at Columbia Grain International (CGI), we are dedicated to cultivating the growth of the food supply chain in the northwestern region of the United States to ensure the world receives high-quality grains, pulses, oilseeds, and organics."},"reasoning":"The page shows a northern-tier US grain merchant serving world markets from the Northwest, the origin that gains if Gulf-to-Asia freight rises. Its export terminal capacity and Asian share are not shown on this page.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-kalama","name":"Port of Kalama","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://www.portofkalama.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.portofkalama.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Did you know the Port of Kalama is the 3rd largest exporter on the West Coast, and the 15th largest exporter in the United States?"},"reasoning":"The port hosts grain elevators (the page also cites a rail grant for the TEMCO elevator) loading for Asia. More PNW grain loadings would raise its lease and wharfage income; the grain share of its exports is not shown.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-longview","name":"Port of Longview","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://www.portoflongview.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.sdsoybean.org/news-media/see-for-yourself-port-of-longview-038-temco","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"In 2008, the port signed a lease for the first Export Grain Terminal (EGT) built in the United States in more than 25 years."},"reasoning":"The page shows the port as landlord of the Longview grain export terminal. A Gulf-to-PNW shift in Asia-bound grain would raise throughput there; lease terms tying port revenue to volume are not shown.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","pnw-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"port-of-south-louisiana","name":"Port of South Louisiana","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations","website":"https://portsl.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"EXPOSED","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://portsl.com/","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"As America's leading grain exporting port district, the Port of South Louisiana is the premier sea gateway for U.S. export and import traffic."},"reasoning":"The Gulf grain port district loses Asia-bound volume if canal limits push buyers to PNW or other origins, as happened in 2023-24. The share of its grain bound for Asia via Panama is not shown.","series_keys":["gulf-japan-grain-ocean-rate","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread","ms-gulf-grain-export-inspections"]}]},{"slug":"bnsf-railway","name":"BNSF Railway Company","country":"US","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.bnsf.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR10152026.pdf","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"In September 2026, BNSF Railway’s average monthly grain shuttle turns were 1.4 to Mexico, 2.4 to the Pacific Northwest, and 3.6 to West Texas."},"reasoning":"USDA shows BNSF running grain shuttles to the PNW export terminals, the landbridge alternative to Gulf-and-canal routing. More PNW demand would raise its carloads and secondary railcar prices; the GTR does not link its volumes to the canal.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"cpkc","name":"Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited","country":"CA","sector":"NAICS 482111 Line-haul railroads","website":"https://www.cpkcr.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"BENEFICIARY","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR10152026.pdf","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"CPKC’s shuttle turns averaged 2.5 to the Pacific Northwest. Union Pacific Railroad’s shuttle turns averaged 2.5 to California and Arizona, and they averaged 1.7 to Mexico."},"reasoning":"USDA lists CPKC among the railroads running grain shuttles to the PNW, an alternative origin if Gulf-to-Asia freight rises. The size of any gain is not shown; it is inferred from its role on that corridor.","series_keys":["pnw-grain-export-inspections","gulf-pnw-japan-rate-spread"]}]},{"slug":"suez-canal-authority","name":"Suez Canal Authority","country":"EG","sector":"NAICS 488310 Port and harbor operations (canal)","website":"https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"COMPETITOR","decision_type":"OPERATIONAL_LOCAL","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://www.vortexa.com/insights/red-sea-attacks-and-panama-canal","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"Since Panama Canal transit issues began, Asia’s LPG imports from the US have undergone a major reshuffling, with voyages via the Panama Canal declining in favour of transits via the Suez Canal and COGH ."},"reasoning":"The January 2024 analysis shows US-to-Asia gas cargoes diverting from Panama to Suez in the last El Niño squeeze. In 2026 Red Sea and Middle East risk keeps Suez traffic depressed, so the Cape may capture most diverted cargoes instead; that split is not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]},{"slug":"kuehne-nagel","name":"Kuehne + Nagel International AG","country":"CH","sector":"NAICS 488510 Freight transportation arrangement","website":"https://www.kuehne-nagel.com/","exposures":[{"signal":"el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026","direction":"ADJACENT","decision_type":"SUPPLY_CHAIN","status":"DEDUCED","evidence":{"url":"https://mykn.kuehne-nagel.com/news/article/panama-canal-transit-auction-reaches-record","date":"2026-11-01","quote":"The Iran war has disrupted Middle East routes and shifted more energy movements towards the Americas–Asia corridor, increasing demand for Panama Canal access, particularly among LNG and LPG carriers."},"reasoning":"The forwarder briefs its shippers on canal slot scarcity, showing it routes cargo on this corridor. Rerouting raises its booking and rerouting work and may lift fees, but its own exposure is inferred, not shown.","series_keys":["canal-neopanamax-transits","canal-oceangoing-transits","nino34-ssta-weekly-c"]}]}],"analysis":{"preview":true,"status":"REVIEWED","question":"For Zen-Noh fixing Gulf-origin grain cargoes and for JERA and KOGAS lifting Gulf LNG for January-April 2027 delivery, does the record El Niño justify paying now for Pacific Northwest origin, a booked canal slot or a Cape routing, and which ACP advisory, read against which Gatun Lake level, settles it before the 2027 dry season?","constants":[{"id":"K1","name":"NOAA chance that October-December 2026 exceeds every El Niño since 1950 (3-month RONI at or above +2.5 °C)","value":83,"unit":"percent","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","source_date":"2026-10-08","quote":"Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value ): the chance is 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December, and 70% for November-January.","note":"ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 8 October 2026, El Niño Advisory in force; re-read live on 1 November 2026, still the current issue. The next discussion is scheduled for 12 November 2026. The 83 percent applies to the relative index (RONI), not to the weekly anomaly series."},{"id":"K2","name":"Monthly Niño-3.4 index, September 2026, NOAA ERSST basis","value":2.1,"unit":"°C anomaly","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml","source_date":"2026-10-08","quote":"Most Niño indices increased in the past month, reaching +2.1°C in Niño-3.4, +3.0°C in Niño-3, and +3.9°C in Niño-1+2","note":"Monthly value on the ERSST basis used by the discussion. The Atlas series nino34-ssta-weekly-c is the weekly OISST anomaly (base 1991-2020) and read +2.8 to +3.2 °C over the September 2026 weeks (F37 = +3.2 in week 40): two bases, never mixed in one figure or one expression."},{"id":"K3","name":"Cumulative rainfall deficit over the Canal watershed, May-August 2026","value":34,"unit":"percent below the historical average","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-29-2026-Additional-Measures-to-Address-Reduced-Precipitation-in-the-Canal-Watershed.pdf","source_date":"2026-08-20","quote":"During the current hydrological year (May through August), cumulative rainfall across the Canal watershed has been 34% below the historical average, while watershed inflows have been 44% below their historical average for the same period","note":"ACP Advisory to Shipping A-29-2026. The same sentence gives the inflow deficit (K4)."},{"id":"K4","name":"Watershed inflow deficit, May-August 2026","value":44,"unit":"percent below the historical average","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-29-2026-Additional-Measures-to-Address-Reduced-Precipitation-in-the-Canal-Watershed.pdf","source_date":"2026-08-20","quote":"while watershed inflows have been 44% below their historical average for the same period, reflecting a substantially reduced hydrologic response despite the onset of the rainy season"},{"id":"K5","name":"October 2023 rainfall deficit over the Canal watershed (2023 analogue)","value":41,"unit":"percent below normal","kind":"PHYSICAL","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ADV48-2023-Reduction-in-Transits-Due-to-the-Ongoing-Deficit-in-Precipitation-in-the-Canal-Watershed.pdf","source_date":"2023-10-30","quote":"The recorded precipitation for October has been the lowest on record since 1950 (41% below), and so far, 2023 ranks as the second driest year for the same period.","note":"ACP A-48-2023, the advisory that announced the November 2023 to February 2024 slot ladder (K12, K13). The ACP's January 2024 summary (A-04-2024) calls it the driest October on record."}],"constants_total":51,"constraints":[{"id":"C1","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C2","kind":"PHYSICAL"},{"id":"C3","kind":"CAPACITY"},{"id":"C4","kind":"CAPACITY"},{"id":"C5","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C6","kind":"SUPPLY"},{"id":"C7","kind":"CONTRACT"},{"id":"C8","kind":"CALENDAR"},{"id":"C9","kind":"CONTRACT"},{"id":"C10","kind":"PHYSICAL"}],"constraints_total":10,"chain":[{"id":"L1","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"Niño 3.4 anomaly","to":"rainfall and inflow over the Canal watershed","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":30,"max":120},"statement":"The weekly anomaly crossed +1.0 °C in week 22 of 2026 (late May) and reached +3.4 °C in week 43; over May-August the ACP measured rainfall 34 percent and inflows 44 percent below average. In 2023 the anomaly crossed +1.0 °C in week 25 (mid-June), peaked at +2.1 °C in week 47, and October 2023 rain was 41 percent below normal. The Atlas holds no Panama rainfall series; the deficit is the ACP's own number, and the September 2026 rain the ACP calls 'close to average' is the first break in it."},{"id":"L2","type":"PHYSICAL","from":"watershed inflow deficit","to":"Gatun Lake level","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"The lake fell from 88.87 ft on 1 January 2026 to 83.80 ft on 26 August, through the first four months of the wet season, then rose 3.17 ft to 86.97 ft by 31 October on near-average September-October rain. In 2023 it fell from 87.65 ft to 79.24 ft by 25 July and was still at 79.68 ft on 31 October because the rains never came. The two Octobers differ by 7.3 ft; the ACP projects 87.2 ft in early December and 86.3 ft on 1 January 2027, 1.35 ft below the 1 January 2023 start."},{"id":"L3","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"Gatun Lake level","to":"ACP draft and slot settings","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":15},"statement":"The ACP moves its two levers against the lake and against its forecast: draft 49.5 ft from 3 July 2026, 48.0 ft from 2 September at 84.00 ft of lake, 49.0 ft from 28 September at 84.79 ft; slots 34 from 4 September, 32 from 15 September, 33 from 15 October. In 2023 the same 32 came at 79.67 ft (30 July) and 24 slots with 44 ft at 79.68 ft (October-November). The 2026 reaction function is about five feet of lake earlier than 2023's. A-38 of 9 October says the deficit continues; A-39 of 21 October reinstates the last-minute reservation service at the Panamax locks on 'close to average' recent rain while stating that 'the water deficit in the Canal watershed persists'; A-37 of 5 October pre-sells dry-season 2027 slots 'particularly when water availability is limited'; A-40 of 30 October changes nothing on draft or slots. No advisory has restored 50 ft or 36 slots."},{"id":"L4","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"ACP slot settings","to":"monthly oceangoing and Neopanamax transits","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"Both ends are in the series. 2023-24: 1,003 transits in October 2023, 783 in November after the 24-slot setting, 662 in February 2024; Neopanamax transits 302 in October 2023, minimum 189 in January 2024. 2026: 1,055 in July, 979 in September under 32-34 slots, Neopanamax 269 against 297 in September 2025. The September 2026 dip is a ninth of capacity, inside what the booking system absorbs; it is not the 2023 shock."},{"id":"L5","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"slot scarcity at the canal","to":"slot auction prices and the Gulf-minus-PNW ocean rate to Japan","status":"OBSERVED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":60},"statement":"Both ends are in the series or dated: the Gulf-PNW spread rose from 33.00 USD/t in July 2026 to 36.19 in August, when the draft cuts were announced, and 39.07 in September after the slot cut, the highest of the 45-month window, with the Gulf-to-Japan rate at 76.38 against 37.31 from the PNW; the record auction (5.3 million USD) was paid for a 1 September transit. In 2023 the spread went from 26.00 in September to 29.58 in December after the 24-slot setting. The spread also carries the Chinese Cape routing, bunker prices and the dry-bulk market (A1-A3), so the canal's share of the 39.07 is not isolated."},{"id":"L6","type":"LOGISTICAL","from":"canal fees, reservation cost, draft and queue risk","to":"route choice, Cape versus canal, by destination","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":21},"statement":"China-bound Gulf soybeans left the canal before any 2026 El Niño measure: since October 2025 no US-soybean Panamax has transited it, and 2025 counted five soybean transits against 143 in 2022 and 52 in 2023, because the Cape economics (about 600,000 USD of extra bunker and time on a 61-day Gulf-Qingdao voyage) are comparable to or slightly better than a Panama transit once fees of about 490,000 USD, reservation costs, draft and congestion risk are counted. In the three weeks after the 4 September 2026 cut the split held: 24 of 24 China-bound vessels (1.6 million t) for the Cape, six of seven Japan-bound vessels through the canal. The destination split is structural, not a response to the September cut: a 2027 slot cut therefore reaches the Japan-bound Gulf cargoes that still buy the slot, while the China flow is already gone and its fleet is already on 61-day voyages (A3). The Atlas has no routing series; the GTR's reading of FGIS and AIS and the BRS count are the evidence, the 2025 counts are the baseline the routing series must beat, and FGIS inspections by destination with ACP soybean transits by month are the series to collect."},{"id":"L7","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"Gulf-over-PNW freight premium","to":"share of Asia-bound grain loaded in the Pacific Northwest","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":14,"max":90},"statement":"Computed by the analyst from the two FGIS series, the PNW share of Gulf-plus-PNW inspections was 39.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (canal at 24 slots) against 35.7 percent in 2024 and 37.9 percent in 2025, and 35.9 percent in weeks 40-43 of 2026 (37.4 percent in the week ending 22 October). A four-point shift in a canal year is consistent with a margin switch, not a replacement, and 2026 shows none yet. Untested because the destination of each inspection (Japan, Korea, China) is not in the Atlas: FGIS inspections by port region and destination are the series to collect."},{"id":"L8","type":"ECONOMIC","from":"freight premium per cargo","to":"Japanese importer's landed cost and origin decision","status":"UNTESTED","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":60},"statement":"A 65,000-t cargo pays 2.54 million USD more at sea from the Gulf than from the PNW at the September 2026 spread; whether Zen-Noh or JERA pay it depends on FOB versus C&F terms and on the PNW-over-Gulf FOB premium, which the Atlas does not hold. Series to collect: USDA AMS Export Grain Bids (Gulf and PNW corn and soybean FOB), Japan Ministry of Finance trade statistics by US port of origin, JERA and KOGAS delivery terms on Sabine Pass and Cameron volumes."},{"id":"L9","type":"BEHAVIOURAL","from":"segment priority in the Neopanamax locks","to":"which ships leave the canal first in a 2027 cut","status":"CONSISTENT","lag_days":{"min":0,"max":30},"statement":"The ACP's October 2026 allocation gives LPG seven weekly Neopanamax slots for every one pooled for bulkers and vehicle carriers, LNG and LPG take first call on freed slots, and gas carriers at 37 ft are never bound by draft cuts. A 2027 slot cut therefore reaches dry bulk and car carriers in the Neopanamax locks first, pushing them to the Panamax locks' 39.5-ft ships or to the Cape, while LNG and LPG buy their way through auctions. Dry bulk transits had already fallen 9.85 percent in the 2022-23 canal year. Segment transits by month are published by the ACP but not stored by the Atlas (RESTRICTED): the series to read at source. A-37-2026 gives bulkers and car carriers a pre-booking route for 3 January to 3 April 2027 (LoTSA Panamax pilot and FixSlot packages, an average of three slots a day per lock set, competitions 17 and 24 November 2026): the ordering applies to the slots not pre-sold, and the late-booking trait of dry bulk is partly offset for the owners who buy packages."}],"alternatives":[{"id":"A1","status":"WEAKENED"},{"id":"A2","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A3","status":"OPEN"},{"id":"A4","status":"OPEN"}],"alternatives_total":4,"conjectures":[{"locked":true,"id":"J1","statement":"If the 2027 dry season draws the lake down at the 2023 rate, the ACP crosses its own 2026 trigger (84 ft, where it held 48 ft of draft and 32 slots) about 56 days after 1 January 2027, around 25 February; the three drought dry seasons in the ACP file that started at or above 86 ft (2017, 2019, 2023, from 0.6 to 1.7 ft above the 86.3 ft projected for 2027) crossed 84 ft between 2 and 29 March, read at source. The window for the first restriction advisory of 2027 is therefore late February to the end of March, not April, two months before the dry season ends, and from a lake five feet higher than the 2023 cuts. If the drawdown runs at the 2025-26 rate (3 ft to April), the trigger is not reached before the first days of April and no advisory is needed in the first quarter.","scope":"LOCAL","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"FREE"},{"locked":true,"id":"J2","statement":"A Japanese grain buyer on FOB terms already pays 2.54 million USD per 65,000-t cargo for Gulf origin over PNW origin at sea; a 2027 return to a 24-slot setting lifts the Gulf-PNW spread by the proportion of the 2023-24 episode (29.58 against 26.00 USD/t, 13.8 percent) to about 44.5 USD/t, 2.89 million USD per cargo, and the share of Asia-bound grain loaded in the PNW rises toward its fourth-quarter-2023 level (39.9 percent) rather than beyond it, because the rail landbridge and the PNW elevators, not the ocean rate, cap the switch.","scope":"CROSS_GEOGRAPHY","confidence":"LOW","tier":"PREMIUM"},{"locked":true,"id":"J3","statement":"The next slot cut falls on dry bulk and car carriers before it touches gas: with 21 LPG and 4 LNG weekly Neopanamax slots against 3 pooled for bulkers and vehicle carriers, first call on freed slots for LNG then LPG, and gas carriers untouched by draft at 37 ft, a 2027 setting of 9 or fewer Neopanamax slots a day leaves Sabine Pass and Cameron cargoes for JERA and KOGAS transiting at auction prices (the September 2026 record was 96 times the February median) while post-Panamax bulkers and car carriers leave the Neopanamax locks for the Panamax locks or the Cape; ACP segment transits will show Neopanamax dry bulk falling faster than Neopanamax LPG. The ordering applies to the slots not pre-sold: A-37-2026 keeps an average of three slots a day per lock set for LoTSA packages covering 3 January to 3 April 2027, and its FixSlot package opens pre-booking to bulkers and car carriers for the first time, so an owner who buys a package on 17 or 24 November 2026 holds its transit dates and the rest of the segment meets the ordering.","scope":"CROSS_SECTOR","confidence":"MEDIUM","tier":"PREMIUM"}],"trajectories":[{"locked":true,"id":"T1","name":"Gatun Lake, ACP settings and the Gulf-PNW premium through the 2027 dry season","horizon":{"from":"2026-11-01","to":"2027-04-30"},"tier":"PREMIUM","branches":[{"id":"acp-baseline-rains-hold","condition":{"indicator":"Gatun Lake level on the ACP water page: every daily reading from 1 January to 31 March 2027 at or above 84 ft, the level of the September 2026 settings. A drawdown at or below the 2025-26 rate (2.95-3.08 ft from 1 January to 30 April, about 0.026 ft a day) from the ACP's projected 86.3 ft keeps the lake above 84 ft until the first days of April. Read after the LoTSA 2027 competitions of 17 and 24 November 2026 (A-37-2026), which pre-sell an average of three Neopanamax and three Panamax slots a day for 3 January-3 April 2027 under either branch.","series_key":null,"op":">=","value":84,"by":"2027-03-31"}},{"id":"restrictions-return-2027-dry-season","condition":{"indicator":"Gatun Lake level on the ACP water page below 84 ft on any day on or before 28 February 2027: the 2023 drawdown rate applied to the ACP's projected 86.3 ft crosses 84 ft about 25 February (J1). The two branches do not overlap; a first crossing between 1 and 31 March falls in neither, and the ACP settings then follow the lake from the crossing date, on this branch's path delayed by as many weeks.","series_key":null,"op":"<","value":84,"by":"2027-02-28"}}]}],"review":{"author":"atlas-analyst","reviewer":"atlas-counter-analyst","date":"2026-11-01","verdict":"ACCEPTED","notes":"Author's notes (kept): First draft, 1 November 2026. Every ACP, NOAA and USDA source was fetched by the analyst that day; the Gatun Lake history and projection files were re-fetched live (sha256 ee349c17… and eb7f8f79…) and match the collector's originals. The Gatun readings are constants, not a series, by the coordinator's decision on the ACP page terms. Two NOAA bases are kept apart: the monthly ERSST Niño-3.4 (+2.1 °C, K2) and the weekly OISST series (F1, F37). The scout's '24 a day, 44 ft' is confirmed against A-48-2023 (K12, K14) with the full ladder. The canal shock is not realised in the transit series; it is realised in routing for China-bound soybeans (K31) and in the auction price (K34). The three EVIDENCED organisation entries whose quotes name a facility rather than the company (Cheniere, JERA, Suez Canal Authority) are left to the counter-analyst; this file uses them only in implications and J3's depends_on. || Counter-analyst, 2026-11-01, round 1, verdict REWORK; report in docs/production-2026-11/el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md. Forty-seven constants opened at their URL: forty-six verbatim with the right value and date; K7 cites the USDA GTR where the ACP's own text exists (A-07-2024: 7, 10 and 3 million m3 a day), to be re-sourced. All forty-one figures, every bound and quantity, and the analyst's derived shares and ratios recompute exactly. The fourteen Gatun readings are one header plus one row each and no series key is referenced: compliant with the coordinator's decision. Chain: L6 reworked, not rejected: Breakwave/BRS (19 November 2025) shows China-bound Gulf soybeans had left the canal in October 2025 (five soybean transits in 2025 against 143 in 2022, Cape economics comparable), so the September 2026 count of 24 of 24 is consistent with the link but is not the canal shock realised; A3 is strengthened. Trajectory T1 reworked: the two branch conditions overlap (at or above 86 ft on 1 January does not exclude below 84 ft before 31 March; at the 2025-26 drawdown rates the crossing lands on 2-4 April), and the baseline branch's April lake range (82.5-84.5 ft) sits mostly at or below the 84 ft at which the ACP cut to 48 ft and 32 slots in September 2026 while its implication says the ACP holds 33-36 slots; from the basis the ranges are 83.2-84.3 ft (baseline) and 80.5-82.5 ft (restrictions). Organisations: Cheniere, JERA and Suez Canal Authority are evidenced by a facility or a waterway, not by the company; DEDUCED unless a quote naming them is added. Found and to be added: ACP A-37-2026 (5 October) pre-sells an average of three Neopanamax and three Panamax slots a day for 3 January to 3 April 2027 through LoTSA, competitions on 17 and 24 November 2026, with a FixSlot package for segments other than container, LNG and LPG: the ACP's own dry-season instrument, which fixes the buyer's decision date (C8) and gives bulkers a pre-booking route (J3). A-39 (21 October) and A-40 (30 October) change nothing on draft or slots. Disagreements kept: C3 is a two-point fit across two policy regimes, not a law; J1's crossing of 84 ft fell on 2 March 2019, 12 March 2017 and 29 March 2023 in the ACP file, so late February is the early edge, not the centre; the Jan-Apr drawdown since 2017 from a start at or above 86 ft ranges 2.95-6.42 ft, 2017 worse than 2023. The GTR of 15 October 2026 already publishes the El Nino-canal-freight crossing in one paragraph; the dossier's additions are J1, J2 and J3. || Rework round 1 applied on 2026-11-01T15:56:02Z by atlas-analyst (status DRAFT, verdict REWORK kept for the reviewer's second reading). Applied: (1) T1 rebuilt: branch 1 condition is now every daily reading at or above 84 ft from 1 January to 31 March 2027, branch 2 is below 84 ft on any day on or before 28 February 2027 (J1's date), so the two cannot both hold; April lake ranges brought to the basis, 83.2-84.3 ft (86.3 minus the 2026 drawdown 3.08; 87.2 minus the 2025 drawdown 2.95) and 80.5-82.5 ft (86.3 minus the 2023 January-April drawdown 5.73; 84 ft on 28 February then 61 days at the 2025 rate); branch 1 gains April draft (48-50 ft) and slot (32-36) points and its ACP implication now follows the September 2026 reaction function at 84 ft instead of claiming 33-36 slots held through April; the LoTSA competitions of 17 and 24 November 2026 are named in both conditions. A first crossing of 84 ft between 1 and 31 March (a drawdown between the 2025-26 and 2023 rates) satisfies neither condition; this gap is stated in branch 2's indicator rather than hidden in a wider range. (2) L6 restated from Breakwave/BRS 19 November 2025 (fetched 1 November 2026): the Cape routing of China-bound Gulf soybeans is structural since October 2025 (K48: five soybean transits in 2025 against 143 in 2022; K49: detour about 600,000 USD against fees about 490,000 USD); the September 2026 count is consistent, not the shock realised; K31 note, C5 and A3 restated accordingly, A3 strengthened as a Panama-independent driver. (3) K7 re-sourced to ACP A-07-2024 (3 million m³ a day, 8 March 2024); C1's bound now converts m³ to gallons (15.85 transit-equivalents, was 16.0). (4) Cheniere, JERA and Suez Canal Authority set to DEDUCED in organisations.json; no quote naming the companies on the canal chain was added. (5) ACP A-37-2026 (LoTSA 2027, fetched 1 November 2026) added as K50 and K51 and written into C7, C8, L3, L9, J3 and T1; A-39 and A-40 named in L3. (6) K35 quote replaced with the sentence as the Marine Insight page reads on 1 November 2026 ('said recent auction results showed', one pair of curly quotes): the reviewer asked for double quotes, the page as fetched today does not carry the first draft's wording at all, so the exact sentence is used; A1 gage dates corrected (below zero 7-11 September, back above 5 ft by 19-22 September); J1 wording widened to late February to the end of March with the three analogue crossings (12 March 2017, 2 March 2019, 29 March 2023, ACP file read at source, start levels 86.87-87.98 ft) while the 56-day quantity is kept because the analogues started 0.6-1.7 ft above the projected 86.3 ft and the same rates from 86.3 land in late February; K39 note records that the GTR of 15 October 2026 already crosses El Niño, canal and freight in one paragraph and that the dossier's additions are J1 to J3. Kept with the reviewer's disagreement visible: C3 remains a two-point fit across two policy regimes and is used only to bound T1's draft ranges; C2 keeps 2023 as the analogue year while the reviewer's 2017 (6.42 ft) is noted as the worse January-April drawdown in the file, which is why branch 2's low end is the 2023 rate and not lower (cuts slow the drawdown, per the branch's own premise). No series added; Gatun readings remain constants. || Counter-analyst, 2026-11-01, round 2 (last round), verdict ACCEPTED; report section 'Round 2' in docs/production-2026-11/el-nino-panama-canal-false-calm-2026/COUNTER_ANALYSIS.md. The six new or changed constants (K7, K35, K48, K49, K50, K51) were re-fetched on 2026-11-01 and are verbatim at their URL with the right value and date: K7 in ACP A-07-2024 across the page header as the note says; K35 as the Marine Insight page reads today; K48 and K49 on the BRS/Breakwave page with every note quote; K50's sentence once in A-37-2026 and K51's key-dates table in reading order. Independent arithmetic for K50: the ACP release relayed by Maritime Executive (7 October) and Marine Insight (9 October) gives 270 Neopanamax and 288 Panamax slots over the 91 booking days of 3 January-3 April 2027, 2.97 and 3.16 a day. Recomputed: C1 bound 15.85, K51 47 days (Panamax 40; 5 and 12 days after the NOAA discussion of 12 November), J1 56.06, T1 April lake 83.22-84.25 and 80.57-82.49, every other T1 range bounded by its constants and figures. All round-1 items resolved: T1 conditions exclusive (at or above 84 ft on every day to 31 March; below 84 ft by 28 February) with the 1-31 March gap declared, ranges equal to the basis, branch-1 ACP implication on the September 2026 reaction function (48 ft at 84.00, 32 slots at 84.40, both readings confirmed in the ACP file), LoTSA competitions named; L6 restated as structural routing since October 2025 with K48 and K49, CONSISTENT on C5, A3 strengthened; K7 on the ACP primary; Cheniere, JERA and Suez Canal Authority DEDUCED in organisations.json; A-37 written into C7, C8, L3, L9, J3 and T1; A1 gage dates confirmed in the Mississippi series (below zero 7-11 September, 5.52 ft on 19 September, 23.82 ft on 6 October). Disagreement withdrawn: on J1 the analyst is right; shifting each analogue's seasonal curve to the projected 86.3 ft start, the 2.3-ft drawdown to 84 ft was reached on 12 February 2017, 22 February 2019 and 22 February 2023 (ACP file read at source), so 25 February is the late edge of the drought analogues, not the early one. Disagreements kept as notes: C3 remains a two-point fit across two policy regimes, acceptable because it only bounds T1's draft ranges; C2 keeps 2023 while 2017 (6.42 ft) is the worse January-April drawdown in the file, but with Gatun Lake at about 436 km2 (133 hm3 per foot) and 0.189 hm3 saved per removed transit, a 2017-type season from 86.3 ft ends April at 80.6 ft with a four-slot cut and 81.9 ft with a twelve-slot cut, so branch 2's 80.5-82.5 ft holds for every drought analogue once a cut of at least the 2026 scale follows the February crossing. Residual cautions, not rework: branch 1 is a knife-edge for a 2025-type season (shifted 2025 curve reaches 84 ft on 31 March, 2026 curve on 14 April) and is in practice a wetter-than-2025 branch; K48/K49, K31 and the rate constants remain single-source and say so; the editor should carry the GTR credit, the A1 dates and the restated L6 into the edition. No series added, Gatun readings remain constants, no gatun-lake-level-ft key in the signal folder. npm run atlas:check: 0 issues."},"locked":{"conjectures":3,"trajectories":1},"summary":{"verdict":"ACCEPTED","reviewed_at":"2026-11-01","constants":51,"constraints":10,"links":9,"untested":2,"contradicted":0,"alternatives":4,"conjectures":3,"trajectories":1}},"offers":{"premium":{"name":"ShockAtlas Premium — every published analysis","price_cents":4900,"currency":"usd","billing":"month","subscribe_url":"https://shockatlas.com/premium#plan","includes":["Every published analysis, old and new, while your subscription is active; new analyses join the same library","Three files per analysis: the full reasoning dossier as JSON, the organisations with their evidence as CSV, and as CSV the data series their publishers allow us to share","Sources, licences, file hashes and reviewer notes, disagreements kept; series restricted by their publisher are cited with a source link, not served; unfinished reviews are labelled","A member key for the full data on the JSON API and the MCP server; the free weekly is a separate sign-up"],"delivery":"Download any analysis from your NanoCorp account library while subscribed. 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